Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “numerical climate model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Colorado East River Community Observatory Data Collection

Abstract The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Colorado East River Community Observatory (ER) in the Upper Colorado River Basin was established in 2015 as a representative mountainous, snow‐dominated watershed to study hydrobiogeochemical responses to hydrological perturbations in headwater systems. The ER is characterized by steep elevation, geologic, hydrologic and vegetation gradients along floodplain, montane, subalpine, and alpine life zones, which makes it an ideal location for researchers to understand how different mountain subsystems contribute to overall watershed behaviour. The ER has both long‐term and spatially‐extensive observations and experimental campaigns carried out by the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA), led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and researchers from over 30 organizations who conduct cross‐disciplinary process‐based investigations and modelling of watershed behaviour. The heterogeneous data generated at the ER include hydrological, genomic, biogeochemical, climate, vegetation, geological, and remote sensing data, which combined with model inputs and outputs comprise a collection of datasets and value‐added products within a mountainous watershed that span multiple spatiotemporal scales, compartments, and life zones. Within 5 years of collection, these datasets have revealed insights into numerous aspects of watershed function such as factors influencing snow accumulation and melt timing, water balance partitioning, and impacts of floodplain biogeochemistry and hillslope ecohydrology on riverine geochemical exports. Data generated by the SFA are managed and curated through its Data Management Framework. The SFA has an open data policy, and over 70 ER datasets are publicly available through relevant data repositories. A public interactive map of data collection sites run by the SFA is available to inform the broader community about SFA field activities. Here, we describe the ER and the SFA measurement network, present the public data collection generated by the SFA and partner institutions, and highlight the value of collecting multidisciplinary multiscale measurements in representative catchment observatories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term impact of light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation on photovoltaic arrays

Low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been identified as critical for widespread adoption of photovoltaics (PV) without subsidies. Maintaining decades-long high-energy production is often an under-recognized opportunity in meeting cost goals because component lifetimes are not fully quantified at the time of manufacture. Whereas certain standardized tests minimize risk of early failure, there is little guidance to quantitatively predict degradation (or lack thereof) over decades, based on accelerated tests. In this article, we move toward bridging the understanding between indoor accelerated tests and outdoor performance data, with the goal of predicting energy yield with enough accuracy to inform financial decisions. Light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LETID) in p-type Si modules is analyzed in terms of impact on long-term module performance and thus LCOE. A method to predict the progression of LETID, using fixed kinetic constants and a numerical solution to the basic reaction rate equations, is detailed. Predictions are compared against both published data and that new to this study. These data include both indoor accelerated tests and fielded modules. We use the results in financial models to derive LCOE of modules in different climates with varying amounts of LETID, including uncertainty. Cost models based on the predictions indicate that LETID has a significant and climate-dependent impact on LCOE. Finally, we show that - even given the uncertainties identified in the study - these financial calculations can provide useful guidance to quantify risk based on accelerated test results. The analysis serves as an example of developing a predictive approach to PV reliability using physics of failure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of phase state and water content on secondary organic aerosol formation and partitioning (Final Technical Report)

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) account for a major fraction of particulate matter in the atmosphere, affecting climate, air quality, and public health. SOA formation and evolution are highly complex processes involving both chemical reactions and transport of molecules in air, at particle surfaces, and within particles. The state of the matter, or “phase state,” comprising SOA can vary from a liquid, over an amorphous semi-solid, to a glassy solid, depending on chemical composition, water content, relative humidity (RH), and temperature. The occurrence of glassy and amorphous semi-solid states can pose limitations on the rate of transport of molecules, affecting gas-particle interactions and challenging the treatment of SOA in atmospheric models. The objective of this project was to improve fundamental understanding of the interplay of the phase state of particles and water content on the evolution of SOA formation. We have developed a method to estimate the glass transition temperature (T g ) of organic compounds to predict the phase state and viscosity of SOA. This method has been applied to high resolution mass spectrometry data of various types of SOA, achieving a good agreement with viscosity measurements. In addition, the viscosity estimation method was implemented into a regional model CMAQ to simulate diel and seasonal variations of SOA phase state over the U.S. Applying kinetic multilayer modeling, we analyzed laboratory experiments and ARM field measurements (e.g., HI-SCALE) on kinetic limitations of amine uptake. We have also conducted numerical simulations to estimate equilibration timescales of SOA partitioning. Overall, we have evaluated the impacts of phase state and water content on SOA lifecycle that should contribute to reducing the uncertainty of SOA representation in regional climate and air quality predictions. The project has yielded 17 publications, in which DE-SC0018349 is explicitly acknowledged. Please see the list of publications as below, followed by summary of research activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Incorporating Climate Nonstationarity and Snowmelt Processes in Intensity–Duration–Frequency Analyses with Case Studies in Mountainous Areas

In this work, downscaled high-resolution climate simulations were used to provide inputs to the physics-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), which accounts for the combined effects of snowmelt and rainfall processes, to determine spatially distributed available water for runoff (AWR). After quasi-stationary time windows were identified based on model outputs extracted for two different mountainous field sites in Colorado and California, intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation and AWR were generated and evaluated at each numerical grid to provide guidance on hydrological infrastructure design. Impacts of snowmelt are found to be spatially variable due to spatial heterogeneity associated with topography according to geostatistical analyses. AWR extremes have stronger spatial continuity compared to precipitation. Snowmelt impacts on AWR are more pronounced at the wet California site than at the semiarid Colorado site. The sensitivities of AWR and precipitation IDFs to increasing greenhouse gas emissions are found to be localized and spatially variable. In subregions with significant snowfall, snowmelt can result in an AWR (e.g., 6-h 100-yr events) that is 70% higher than precipitation. For comparison, future greenhouse gas emissions may increase 6-h 100-yr precipitation and AWR by up to 50% and 80%, respectively, toward the end of this century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Internally cooled membrane-based absorber for dehumidification and water heating: Validated model and simulation study

This report presents a comprehensive model for advanced membrane-based absorber components accounting for three separate fluid streams, one of them providing internal cooling, with complex flow patterns. The model was implemented with various liquid desiccants and their properties (including LiCl, CaCl 2 , and [emim][OMS] ionic liquid [IL]). The model has been validated using data from two laboratory prototype absorbers, one with CaCl 2 as the working fluid and one with an IL as the working fluid. Entropy analysis was further carried out to verify the model and understand effect of internal cooling on the entropy variation of three fluid streams. The developed model and codes are expected to enable detailed configuration optimization and provide in-depth understanding of three-fluid heat and mass exchanger (HMX) performance. The paper also describes parametric studies of the HMX components in utilizing the latent heat removed in space cooling to heat water and numerically explores the unique benefit of its application in a semi-open absorption heat pump water heater. The results show that a single three-fluid HMX has the potential to achieve simultaneous dehumidification and water heating efficiently at cost effectiveness, particularly in hot and humid climates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Poster Abstract: Leveraging Large Language Models to Reveal Interpretable Cooling Behaviors from Smart Thermostat Data

Frequent heatwaves and hot summers increasingly challenge occupant comfort, health, and energy grid stability. Addressing these challenges requires a detailed understanding of household cooling behaviors, such as thermostat adjustments and adaptive responses to extreme conditions. Traditional analyses often rely on aggregated numerical metrics that overlook subtle but important household-specific variations. In this study, we introduce a generalizable methodology that integrates large language models (LLMs) with vision capabilities to enable scalable and detailed analysis of residential thermostat data. Using Ecobee's Donate Your Data (DYD) dataset—which provides five-minute records of indoor temperatures, thermostat setpoints, and HVAC runtimes—we focus on two U.S. cities with contrasting summer climates : Austin (TX) and Phoenix (AZ). Because raw time-series data are not well suited for direct LLM analysis, we transform them into visual representations, such as daily indoor temperature trajectories and weekly runtime histograms, to better capture behavioral variations. Leveraging LLMs' visual interpretation, we extract descriptive behavioral features, including temperature preferences, time-of-day cooling orientation, anticipatory versus reactive heatwave responses, and behavioral consistency. These semantic features support unsupervised clustering to identify distinct occupant archetypes at scale, revealing differences—such as morning-centric anticipatory coolers versus households that shift toward warmer setpoints during heatwaves—that can inform demand response, resilience planning, and health-aware interventions. By converting raw numerical data into interpretable behavioral patterns, this methodology enables scalable and practical analysis of occupant behavior, supporting actionable insights for comfort, resilience, and energy management.

Nihar, Kopal↗
DOE OSTI2021

An unstructured C-grid type variational formulation for the sea ice dynamics

Historically, B-grid formulations of sea ice dynamics have been dominant because they have matched the grid type used by ocean models. The reason for the grid match is simple – it facilitates penetration of the curl of ice-ocean stress into the deep ocean with minimal numerical diffusivity because sea ice and ocean velocity are co-located. In recent years, as ocean models have increasingly progressed to C-grids, sea ice models have followed suit on quadrilateral meshes, but the implementation of an unstructured C-grid sea ice models is new. We present an unstructured C-grid discretization of the Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) rheology, where the velocity unknowns are discretized at the edges of the mesh cells with n-sides, where typically n is greater than or equal to four, rather than at the vertices, as in the B-grid. Our framework of choice is the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) within E3SM, the climate model of the U.S. Department of Energy, although our approach is general and could be applied to other models as well. While MPAS-Seaice is currently defined on a B-grid, MPAS-Ocean runs on a C-grid, hence interpolation operators are heavily used when coupled simulations are performed. In this work, we describe a mathematical formulation to transition the dynamics of MPAS-Seaice to a C-grid, in order to ultimately facilitate the coupling with MPAS-Ocean and reduce numerical errors associated with this communication. Numerical results are reported to highlight the features of the method.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Using LASSO to bridge the gap between model and observations and to learn about atmospheric convection”

Atmospheric convection spans a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and involves complex interactions with the surrounding dynamic and thermodynamic environment, particularly over tropical continental regions. These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models, including persistent biases in the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation that directly affect estimates of climate sensitivity. Addressing these challenges requires the combined use of high-resolution observations and cloud-resolving modeling frameworks. In this context, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Large-Eddy Simulation ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity provides a powerful platform that pairs comprehensive observations with numerical simulations to enable process-level understanding of atmospheric convection. Within this context, this Research and Development Partnership Pilot (RDPP) project was designed to initiate and expand DOE ARM/ASR research capacity at minority-serving institutions, while advancing scientific understanding of convective processes over the Amazon rainforest. Consistent with the RDPP mission, the project emphasized partnership development, training, and workforce capacity building alongside exploratory research activities. On the scientific side, the project produced two peer-reviewed journal articles, and one manuscript currently under review (see list in section 3.1). Together, these studies combine long-term ARM observations and cloud-resolving and convection-permitting modeling to investigate the environmental controls on the shallow-to-deep convective transition during the Amazon wet season. The results demonstrate the central role of early-day moisture preconditioning and large-scale dynamical forcing in regulating isolated deep convection, provide mechanistic insight into convective evolution, and establish physically informed modeling frameworks for future sensitivity experiments. These scientific outcomes are described in sections 2.1 to 2.3 and were disseminated in 8 conference presentations (see section 3.2) and 5 invited talks (see section 3.3), reflecting broad engagement with our community. Equally important, the project achieved its RDPP capacity-building objectives (see section 2.4). A sustained research partnership was established among the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), Morgan State University (MSU), and Howard University (HU), and extended to include collaboration with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The project organized multiple multi-day training events focused on ARM data, LASSO simulations, and quantitative analysis methods, directly engaging students, postdoctoral researchers, and faculty across institutions. These activities broadened participation in ASR research and led to independent adoption of LASSO workflows by students beyond the immediate project team. Finally, the project successfully positioned the participating institutions to pursue future DOE research. Preliminary scientific results, coupled with strengthened partnerships and technical capacity, enabled the submission of follow-on proposals to DOE ASR funding opportunities. In this way, the project fulfilled the RDPP goal of seeding durable research capacity and laying the foundation for larger-scale, sustained engagement with DOE ARM and ASR programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Scale Integrated Monitoring System for Enhancing Methane Emission Detection, Quantification & Prediction

This report details the progress and findings of a comprehensive study on reviewing existing solutions, identifying technology gaps, and formulating an “all-in-one” integrated strategy for developing the next-generation multiscale methane monitoring and modeling platform, conducted under grant number DE-FE0032292. Co-led by Dr. David Ebert, Dr. Binbin Weng, and Dr. Chenghao Wang at the University of Oklahoma, the project’s goal was to develop an integrated approach for building this engineering platform to detect, quantify, and mitigate methane emissions across various temporal scale, spatial scales, and sectors. The planning grant study began with an extensive review of various methane sensing and monitoring technologies and systems, surveying over 100 technology providers globally. This review revealed the prevalence of optical methods over chemical methods in commercially available sensors, with Non-Dispersive Infrared (NDIR), Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy (TDLAS), and Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras being the most prevalent options. A trend towards more advanced optical techniques was observed, driven by increased regulatory focus and technological advancements. The technical evaluation of these sensing technologies provided crucial insights into their capabilities and limitations. The study examined emerging technologies such as Differential Absorption LiDAR (DIAL), which show promise for high-precision and long-range detection. The team then investigated the features and application bandwidth of various sensing platforms, including handheld, fixed/stationary, mobile, aerials, and spaceborne monitors. Pilot field studies were conducted to assess the capabilities of solutions for different emission scenarios. Field work with sensor deployments was conducted at three distinct site types: an oil & gas industry site, a cattle ranching operation, and a waste processing facility. The team also conducted a thorough review of methane flux inverse modeling approaches, focused on physically based methods. These approaches were categorized into simple, intermediate, and advanced methods. A realtime WRF-GHG (Weather Research and Forecasting-Greenhouse Gas) modeling system was developed and applied, incorporating multiple data sources to guide field experiments and inform methane plume detection. The project identified and analyzed numerous categories of methane data sources, including satellite measurements, ground-based sensors, and inventory databases. Key platforms examined include EDGAR, EPA GHGI, NASA TROPOMI, Carbon Mapper, and Climate TRACE, among others. The team proposed an architecture for a comprehensive methane monitoring platform. This system incorporates multi-source data acquisition, advanced data processing and assimilation, interactive visualization tools, and analytical capabilities for emissions forecasting and scenario analysis. The proposed platform aims to provide a user-friendly interface catering to various stakeholders, from researchers to policymakers. The architecture includes sophisticated data ingestion methods, a centralized data warehouse, and advanced analytical tools for data fusion and interpretation. To ensure the relevance and effectiveness of the proposed system, a comprehensive survey was conducted to gather stakeholder input on system requirements. Key findings include a strong need for integrating various data types and formats, a preference for real-time data updates and advanced visualization tools, and a demand for user-friendly interfaces catering to different expertise levels.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

WTK-LED: The WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset

To satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have, we aimed at developing an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, named WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), which is a meteorological dataset providing time series every 5 min and 2 km, including model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point so that users are provided with a range of possible wind speeds every 2 km. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: 1) Numerical simulations covering the continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii, with high-resolution data being available for 3 years (2018-2020). 2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratories covering the North American continent, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean Islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km dataset covering 20 years, from 2001-2020. 3) Specific long-term,high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the US coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set. This report focuses on a description of the land-based WTK-LED for CONUS, Hawaii, and Alaska, for the 3-year 2-km/5-min dataset and the 20-year 4-km/hourly dataset, as well as the uncertainty quantification method. We also provide limited validation results. Based on our results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset

WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, is a meteorological dataset providing high-resolution time series, including interannual variability and model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point to indicate ranges of possible wind speeds. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: (1) Numerical simulations of wind speed and other meteorological variables covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska, with high-resolution (5-minute [min], 2-kilometer [km]) data for 3 years (2018-2020): WTK-LED CONUS, WTK-LED Alaska. (2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratory covering North America, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km, hourly dataset covering 20 years (2001-2020): WTK-LED Climate. (3) Specific long-term, high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the U.S. coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset: NOW-23. The data for Hawaii include land-based data and are part of WTK-LED Hawaii. Because the accuracy of simulations from a mesoscale model, such as WRF, varies depending on the location and weather situation, and can reach up to several m/s for wind speed, we provide simulated wind speed uncertainty estimates to the community to be used in conjunction with the deterministic model simulations. This dataset was developed to satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have. Based on our validation results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED as shown in "WTK-LED Use Cases" resource below.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multiphase flow model of water droplets dielectrophoretic-induced air dehumidification phenomena

Air humidity in indoor spaces plays a critical role in human comfort and health. Dehumidification systems are used for building humidity controls, but they can take significant energy consumption, especially in geographic locations with high outdoor humidity and warm climates. Consequently, there is a growing demand for innovative dehumidification processes that consume minimal energy. Dielectrophoretic air dehumidification represents one such promising approach. However, it has not garnered significant attention due to the absence of engineering models and simulation tools capable of evaluating its performance and limitations at large-scale airflows. A new numerical multiphase CFD model, which is also experimentally validated, is developed in a customized Reacting Foam solver based on OpenFOAM® version 9. The newly developed model seeks to decrease substantial energy consumption and lower costs by leveraging the dielectrophoretic phenomenon to regulate moisture levels in the air. The solver integrates a hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian framework to track the droplet's trajectory and growth rate while solving the continuum equations for the moist air. An electrospray produces electrically charged droplets, which grow during their in-flight trajectories as water vapor condenses onto their surfaces. The role of electrostatic forces in promoting vapor condensation within a high-gradient electrical field is investigated, and the dielectrophoretic vapor nucleation process on charged water droplets is discussed. The CFD model was validated against results from the literature and from proof-of-concept experiments conducted by the authors, which showed a 2 % air dehumidification with a single electrospray and airflow rate of 5 cubic feet per minute. The simulation results indicated that augmenting the number of electrically charged spray droplets increased the dehumidification of the air to 25 %. The initial mean droplet diameter, the orientation of the injector and relative humidity significantly influence the assessment of dehumidification. As a result, scaling up this approach to larger airflow volumes is identified as a potential future research direction.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets

Publication For a thorough description of the methods, see the peer-reviewed paper: Jones, A.D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P. et al. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather. Sci Data 10, 664 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02485-5 Overview The IM3 / HyperFACETS climate simulations provide 40-year historical (1980-2019) as well as four 80-year future simulations (2020-2099) over the U.S. The future simulations are split into near (2020-2059) and far future (2060-2099) segments. The future scenarios span a range of plausible changes in future climate (both Global Circulation Model (GCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP/SSP) dimensions). The simulations provide climate variables with high spatiotemporal resolution (25 hourly variables and 207 3-hourly variables at 12 km2). The datasets are generated using dynamical downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (version 4.2.1) and therefore preserve physical consistency across variables. WRF is a state-of-the-art, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic, mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. WRF is coupled with an urban canopy model (UCM), which resolves urban surfaces. The future scenarios were developed using a thermodynamic global warming approach where past events are replayed under a range of future warming conditions. These scenarios therefore provide a perspective on potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, with previously non-extreme conditions potentially crossing new thresholds to be considered extreme by today's standards. This approach is not intended to estimate future changes in extreme event frequency that might result from changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This dataset has NOT been bias corrected. A bias corrected version of selected variables is under development and will be released here when available. Scenarios Files Data for each scenario is provided in weekly NetCDF files. 25 variables are available at hourly resolution, and 207 variables are available at three-hourly resolution. Spatial resolution is 12km and spans the conterminous United States (CONUS), including some areas of Canada and Mexico, resulting in a grid of 424 by 299 cells. The spatial projection is a Lambert Conformal Conic with the following proj-string: "+proj=lcc +lat_0=40.0000076293945 +lon_0=-97 +lat_1=30 +lat_2=45 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +R=6370000 +units=m +no_defs". The available scenarios and simulation periods are listed below: historical | 1980 - 2019 rcp45cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp45cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp45hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp45hotter | 2060 - 2099 rcp85cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp85cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp85hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp85hotter | 2060 - 2099 * The first year (1979, 2019, and 2059) of data within each scenario represents a model warmup period and should not be used. These are located in the `spinup_files` directory. Historical year 2020 is considered an extra year of data beyond the simulation period and can be found in the `additional_files` directory. For information on specific variables and a more in-depth discussion of methodology, please refer to the data landing page at https://tgw-data.msdlive.org. Delta Warming Files The global and CONUS warming deltas for each scenario are provided in degrees Celsius annually and monthly. Restart Files Yearly restart files are provided for each scenario which can be used to restart the WRF model at a particular point in time. Spinup Files The first year of data within each simulation period represents a model warmup period and should not be used. The files are provided here for the sake of reproducibility. Additional Files Additional years of data are provided as an extension of the historic simulation.

Jones, Andrew D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic ice-ocean interactions in an 8-to-2 kilometer resolution global model

In the last decades, the Arctic climate has changed dramatically, with the loss of multiyear sea ice one of the clearest consequences. These changes have occurred on relatively rapid timescales, and both accurate short-term Arctic prediction (e.g., 10 days to three months) and climate projection of future Arctic scenarios present ongoing challenges. Here we describe a representation of the Arctic ocean and sea ice in a ultrahigh resolution simulation in which the horizontal grid mesh reduces from 8 km at the equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) for the years 2017-2020. We find the simulation reproduces observed distributions of seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration realistically, although concentration is biased low in the spring and summer and low biases in thickness are found in the central and eastern basins in the fall. Volume, fresh water, and heat transports through key passages are realistic, lying within observationally determined ranges. Climatological comparisons reveal that the UH8to2 Atlantic Water is shallower, warmer, and saltier than the World Ocean Atlas 2018 climatology for 2005-2017 in the eastern basin. Our analysis suggests that these biases, combined with a lack of stratification in the upper 100 m of the simulated ocean, contribute to the winter biases in modeled sea ice thickness. This relationship between biases in the sea ice and ocean points to a potential positive feedback within the model, illuminating challenges for long term model predictive power in a changing Arctic climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Study of Coupled Water and Vapor Flow, Heat Transfer, and Solute Transport in Variably-Saturated Deformable Soil During Freeze-Thaw Cycles

As climate change intensifies, soil water flow, heat transfer, and solute transport in the active, unfrozen zones within permafrost and seasonally frozen ground exhibit progressively more complex interactions that are difficult to elucidate with measurements alone. For example, frozen conditions impede water flow and solute transport in soil, while heat and mass transfer are significantly affected by high thermal inertia generated from water-ice phase change during the freeze-thaw cycle. To assist in understanding these subsurface processes, the current study presents a coupled two-dimensional model, which examines heat conduction-convection with water-ice phase change, soil water (liquid water and vapor) and groundwater flow, advective-dispersive solute transport with sorption, and soil deformation (frost heave and thaw settlement) in variably saturated soils subjected to freeze-thaw actions. This coupled multiphysics problem is numerically solved using the finite element method. The model's performance is first verified by comparison to a well-documented freezing test on unsaturated soil in a laboratory environment obtained from the literature. Then based on the proposed model, we quantify the impacts of freeze-thaw cycles on the distribution of temperature, water content, displacement history, and solute concentration in three distinct soil types, including sand, silt and clay textures. The influence of fluctuations in the air temperature, groundwater level, hydraulic conductivity, and solute transport parameters was also comparatively studied. The results show that (a) there is a significant bidirectional exchange between groundwater in the saturated zone and soil water in the vadose zone during freeze-thaw periods, and its magnitude increases with the combined influence of higher hydraulic conductivity and higher capillarity; (b) the rapid dewatering ahead of the freezing front causes local volume shrinkage within the non-frozen region when the freezing front propagates downward during the freezing stage and this volume shrinkage reduces the impact of frost heave due to ice formation. This gradually recovers when the thawed water replenishes the water loss zone during the thawing stage; and (c) the profiles of soil moisture, temperature, displacement, and solute concentration during freeze-thaw cycles are sensitive to the changes in amplitude and freeze-thaw period of the sinusoidal varying air temperature near the ground surface, hydraulic conductivity of soil texture, and the initial groundwater levels. Our modeling framework and simulation results highlight the need to account for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical behaviors to better understand soil water and groundwater dynamics during freeze-thaw cycles and further help explain the observed changes in water cycles and landscape evolution in cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Models to Predict the Hygrothermal Performance of Equipment and Piping Insulation

The development of hygrothermal models began in earnest in the 1990s, with the initial emphasis on the performance of building envelope systems. Numerous large-scale building envelope failures associated with water intrusion drove this development. The physical principles of moisture transfer that apply to building envelopes are equally valid for equipment and piping insulation systems. The main advantage of modeling is that carefully characterized models can predict the long-term hygrothermal performance of any system under different climatic and interior conditions. Thermal insulations are commonly used on outdoor equipment and piping for different applications, such as thermal energy conservation and freeze protection. The insulated equipment usually experiences moisture intrusion due to many factors, such as the duration and frequency of moisture exposure, equipment operating temperature, insulation type, exposure temperature, weather conditions, equipment thermal cycling, and weatherproofing condition. Hygrothermal models have been employed to estimate the moisture pickup of insulated equipment and piping systems, as well as the moisture redistribution and subsequent change in thermal performance as these systems become contaminated with moisture. The hygrothermal model provides insights on the parameters influencing the time of wetness, the lateral redistribution of moisture along the pipe away from the leak, and the ease by which water escapes the insulation/jacketing systems. It has been shown that the moisture leak effect decreases rapidly with distance from the leak and that one- and two-dimensional hygrothermal simulations help to identify solutions to reduce conditions that support corrosion under insulation (CUI).

Shrestha, Som↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mixed-precision numerics in scientific applications: survey and perspectives

The explosive demand for artificial intelligence (AI) workloads has led to a significant increase in silicon area dedicated to lower-precision computations on recent high-performance computing hardware designs. However, mixed-precision capabilities, which can achieve performance improvements of up to 8x compared to double-precision in extreme compute-intensive workloads, remain largely untapped in most scientific applications. A growing number of efforts have shown that mixed-precision algorithmic innovations can deliver superior performance without sacrificing accuracy. These developments should prompt computational scientists to seriously consider whether their scientific modeling and simulation applications could benefit from the acceleration offered by new hardware and mixed-precision algorithms. In this survey, we (1) review progress across diverse scientific domains—fluid dynamics, weather and climate, quantum chemistry, and computational genomics—that have begun adopting mixed-precision strategies; (2) examine state-of-the-art algorithmic techniques such as iterative refinement, splitting and emulation schemes, and adaptive precision solvers; (3) assess their implications for accuracy, performance, and resource utilization; and (4) survey the emerging software ecosystem that enables mixed-precision methods at scale. We conclude with perspectives and recommendations on cross-cutting opportunities, domain-specific challenges, and the role of co-design between application scientists, numerical analysts, and computer scientists. Collectively, this survey underscores that mixed-precision numerics can reshape computational science by aligning algorithms with the evolving landscape of hardware capabilities.

Graphics processing units↗