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Observed Spatiotemporal Changes in the Mechanisms of Extreme Water Available for Runoff in the Western United States

We used a quality-controlled Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) data set (1979–2017) combined with the nonparametric regional Kendall test (RKT) to examine changes in annual maximum water available for runoff at the land surface under four hydrometeorological conditions (snowmelt only, rain-on-snow, all melt with or without rainfall, and all melt plus rainfall on snow-free ground) over the mountainous regions of the western U.S. Our RKT analyses indicated significant declining trends at point (SNOTEL) scale under all four conditions. The annual maximum of all melt plus rainfall decreased primarily in the southwestern U.S., while the frequency of rain-on-snow events increased significantly in the northwestern U.S. The rate of annual maximum snowmelt only decreased in 10 of 11 ecological regions across the western U.S. These results suggest that under a warming climate, the four types of annual maximum water available for runoff have been substantially decreasing at local scale across the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strong Influence of Irrigation on Water Budget and Land Surface Temperature in Indian Subcontinental River Basins

Irrigation modulates the terrestrial water budget, especially in intensively irrigated regions such as Indian sub-continent river basins, where 35% of agricultural land has been irrigated during 2010. Here, we investigate the impact of irrigation on water budget components and land surface temperature (LST), as well as seasonal and annual trends of irrigation water demand in response to climate variability over the Indian sub-continental region. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model coupled with an irrigation scheme (VIC-IRR) to represent the irrigation activities. The VIC-IRR model was calibrated and evaluated against in-situ and remote sensing observations including streamflow from India-Water Resource Information System (WRIS), Terrestrial Water Storage Change (TWSC) from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), LST from Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), and observed gravimetric soil moisture data from India Meteorology Department (IMD). We conducted two simulations (i.e., with and without irrigation) over 18 Indian sub-continental basins at 0.25° spatial resolution from 1951 to 2012. The comparison between the two simulations indicates that as a result of irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET) increases in all the basins. We find that mean annual ET of Indus and Ganges basins increases by 47% and 12%, respectively due to irrigation. After irrigation, basin averaged total runoff (TR) was increased in the most irrigated basins (i.e., Sabarmati, Ganges, and Indus) by 4.62%, 11.87% and 7.06% in the monsoon, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons, respectively. The land surface temperature was cooled down in range of 0.2-0.65 °C in the Indian sub-continental basins especially in Ganges and Indus basins. Compare to other basins; irrigation water demand was high in Indus and Ganges basins during the post-monsoon season. Using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall trend test we find that in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons over the study period, irrigation demand decreased by 8.25 mm/year in 13 basins. Whereas for the post-monsoon season, irrigation water demand increased in 12 out of the 18 basins. Changes in irrigation demands are largely driven by changes in soil moisture due to decline in the summer monsoon precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework

Abstract To assess the effect of uncertainties in solar wind driving on the predictions from the operational configuration of the Space Weather Modeling Framework, we have developed a nonparametric method for generating multiple possible realizations of the solar wind just upstream of the bow shock, based on observations near the first Lagrangian point. We have applied this method to the solar wind inputs at the upstream boundary of Space Weather Modeling Framework and have simulated the geomagnetic storm of 5 April 2010. We ran a 40‐member ensemble for this event and have used this ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted Sym‐H index and ground magnetic disturbances due to the uncertainty in the upstream boundary conditions. Both the ensemble mean and the unperturbed simulation tend to underpredict the magnitude of Sym‐H in the quiet interval before the storm and overpredict in the storm itself, consistent with previous work. The ensemble mean is a more accurate predictor of Sym‐H, improving the mean absolute error by nearly 2 nT for this interval and displaying a smaller bias. We also examine the uncertainty in predicted maxima in ground magnetic disturbances. The confidence intervals are typically narrow during periods where the predicted d B H /d t is low. The confidence intervals are often much wider where the median prediction is for enhanced d B H /d t . The ensemble also allows us to identify intervals of activity that cannot be explained by uncertainty in the solar wind driver, driving further model improvements. This work demonstrates the feasibility and importance of ensemble modeling for space weather applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Ensemble Optimization Framework for Coupled Design of Hydropower Contracts and Real-Time Reservoir Operating Rules

Often, revenues from hydropower generation depend on the operator's ability to provide firm power in the presence of uncertain inflows. The primary options available for optimizing revenue are negotiation of a firm power contract before operations begin and adjustment of the reservoir release during operations. Contract and release strategy optimization are closely coupled and most appropriately analyzed with stochastic real-time control methods. Here we use an ensemble-based approach to stochastic optimization that provides a convenient way to construct nonparametric revenue probability distributions to explore the implications of uncertainty. The firm power contract is a simplified bilateral fixed price agreement that partially insulates operator and buyer from price fluctuations. The release control laws and firm energy target are jointly optimized to maximize the operator's expected revenue. Revenue probability distributions and related spill performance statistics indicate that predictive operating strategies such as stochastic dynamic programming and model predictive control can give significantly better performance than standard deterministic operating rules. The performance obtained from batch optimization with perfect inflow information establishes a convenient upper bound on potential revenue and provides a baseline for assessing the significance of differences between real-time operating strategies. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the benefits of predictive operational strategies are greatest for reservoirs with medium nondimensional residence times and less important for reservoirs with large residence times. Overall, probabilistic analysis of the coupled hydropower contract-operations problem provides a realistic way to assess revenue and risk for reservoirs that must provide firm power when inflows are uncertain.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Statistical Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Proxy Reconstructions

A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Empirical Dynamic Modeling Reveals Complexity of Methane Fluxes in a Temperate Salt Marsh

Abstract Methane dynamics within salt marshes are complex because vegetation types, temperature, oscillating water levels, and changes in salinity and redox conditions influence CH 4 production, consumption, oxidation, and emissions. These non‐linear and complex interactions among variables affect the traditionally expected functional relationships and present challenges for interpreting and developing process‐based models. We employed empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and convergent cross mapping (CCM) as a novel approach for characterizing seasonal/multiday and diurnal CH 4 dynamics by inferring causal variables, lags, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables within a temperate salt marsh using 5 years of eddy covariance data. EDM/CCM is a nonparametric approach capable of quantifying the coupling between variables while determining time scales where variable interactions are the most relevant. We found that gross primary productivity, tidal creek dissolved oxygen, and temperature were important for seasonal/multiday dynamics (rho = 0.73–0.80), while water level was most important for diurnal dynamics during both the growing and dormancy phenoperiods (rho = 0.72 and 0.56, respectively). Lags for the top‐ranked variables (i.e., gross primary productivity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, water level) occurred between 1 and 5 weeks at the seasonal scale and 1–24 hr at the diurnal scale. The EDM had high prediction capabilities for intra‐/inter‐seasonal patterns and annual CH 4 sums but had limitations in representing large, infrequent fluxes. Results highlight the importance of non‐linearity, drivers, lag times, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables that regulate CH 4 fluxes in tidal wetlands. This research introduces a novel approach to examining CH 4 fluxes, which will aid in evaluating current paradigms in wetlands and other ecosystems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Quantile-specific heritability of sibling leptin concentrations and its implications for gene-environment interactions

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g., leptin) is high or low relative to its distribution. Leptin concentrations are strongly related to adiposity, whose heritability is quantile dependent. Whether inheritance of leptin concentrations is quantile dependent, and whether this explains the greater heritability in women than men in accordance with their greater adiposity, and explains other gene-environment interactions, remains to be determined. Therefore, leptin and leptin receptor concentrations from 3068 siblings in 1133 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study Third Generation Cohort were analyzed. Free leptin index (FLI) was calculated as the ratio of leptin to soluble leptin receptor concentrations. Full-sib (β FS ) regression slopes were robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1000 bootstrap samples. The analyses showed β FS increased significantly with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s age- and sex-adjusted leptin distribution (P linear = 0.0001), which was accelerated at the higher concentrations (P quadratic = 0.0003). β FS at the 90th percentile (0.418 ± 0.066) was 4.7-fold greater than at the 10th percentile (0.089 ± 0.032, P difference = 3.6 × 10 –6 ). Consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity, the β FS was greater in female sibs, which was attributable to their higher leptin concentrations. Reported gene-environment interactions involving adiposity and LEP , LEPR , MnSOD , PPARγ , PPARγ2 , and IRS-1 polymorphisms were consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity of leptin concentrations. β FS for leptin receptor concentrations and free leptin index also increased significantly with increasing percentiles of their distributions (P linear = 0.04 and P linear = 8.5 × 10 –6 , respectively). In conclusion, inherited genetic and shared environmental effects on leptin concentrations were quantile dependent, which likely explains male–female differences in heritability and some gene-environment interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Outlier analyses of the Protein Data Bank archive using a probability-density-ranking approach

Outlier analyses are central to scientific data assessments. Conventional outlier identification methods do not work effectively for Protein Data Bank (PDB) data, which are characterized by heavy skewness and the presence of bounds and/or long tails. We have developed a data-driven nonparametric method to identify outliers in PDB data based on kernel probability density estimation. Unlike conventional outlier analyses based on location and scale, Probability Density Ranking can be used for robust assessments of distance from other observations. Analyzing PDB data from the vantage points of probability and frequency enables proper outlier identification, which is important for quality control during deposition-validation-biocuration of new three-dimensional structure data. Ranking of Probability Density also permits use of Most Probable Range as a robust measure of data dispersion that is more compact than Interquartile Range. The Probability-Density-Ranking approach can be employed to analyze outliers and data-spread on any large data set with continuous distribution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An exact inversion method for extracting orientation ordering by small-angle scattering

Here, we outline a nonparametric inversion strategy for determining the orientation distribution function (ODF) of sheared interacting rods using small-angle scattering techniques. With the presence of direct inter-rod interaction and fluid mechanical forces, the scattering spectra are no longer characterized by the azimuthal symmetry in the coordinates defined by the principal directions of simple shear conditions, which severely compounds the reconstruction of ODFs based on currently available methods developed for dilute systems. Using a real spherical harmonic expansion scheme, the real-space ODFs are uniquely determined from the anisotropic scattering spectra and their numerical accuracy is verified computationally. Our method can be generalized to extract ODFs of uniaxially anisotropic objects under different flow conditions in a properly transformed reference frame with suitable basis vectors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Normative Ranges for, and Interrater Reliability of, Rotational Vestibular and Balance Tests in U.S. Military Service Members and Veterans

Purpose: The objectives of this study were to (a) describe normative ranges—expressed as reference intervals (RIs)—for vestibular and balance function tests in a cohort of Service Members and Veterans (SMVs) and (b) to describe the interrater reliability of these tests. Method: As part of the Defense and Veterans Brain Injury Center (DVBIC)/Traumatic Brain Injury Center of Excellence 15-year Longitudinal Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) Study, participants completed the following: vestibulo-ocular reflex suppression, visual-vestibular enhancement, subjective visual vertical, subjective visual horizontal, sinusoidal harmonic acceleration, the computerized rotational head impulse test (crHIT), and the sensory organization test. RIs were calculated using nonparametric methods and interrater reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients between three audiologists who independently reviewed and cleaned the data. Results: Reference populations for each outcome measure comprised 40 to 72 individuals, 19 to 61 years of age, who served either as noninjured controls (NIC) or injured controls (IC) in the 15-year study; none had a history of TBI or blast exposure. A subset of 15 SMVs from the NIC, IC, and TBI groups were included in the interrater reliability calculations. RIs are reported for 27 outcome measures from the seven rotational vestibular and balance tests. Interrater reliability was considered excellent for all tests except the crHIT, which was found to have good interrater reliability. Conclusion: This study provides clinicians and scientists with important information regarding normative ranges and interrater reliability for rotational vestibular and balance tests in SMVs.

Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗

Anomalies in the topology of the temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background: An analysis of the NPIPE and FFP10 data releases

We present a topological analysis of the temperature fluctuation maps from the Planck 2020 Data Release 4 NPIPE dataset and the Planck 2018 Data Release 3 FFP10 dataset. We performed a multiscale analysis in terms of the homology characteristics of the maps, invoking relative homology to account for the analysis in the presence of masks. We performed our analysis for a range of smoothing scales spanning sub- and super-horizon scales corresponding to a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 5',10',20',40',80',160',320', and 640', and employed simulations based on the standard model for comparison, which assumes the initial fluctuation field to be an isotropic and homogeneous Gaussian random field. Examining the behavior of topological components, represented by the 0D homology group, we find the observations to be approximately 2σ or less deviant from the simulations for all resolutions and scales for the NPIPE dataset. For the FFP10 dataset, we detect a 2.96σ deviation between the observations and simulations at N = 128, FWHM = 80'. For the topological loops, represented by the first homology group, the simulations and observations are consistent within 2σ for most resolutions and scales for both the datasets. However, for the NPIPE dataset, we observe a high deviation between the observation and simulations in the number of loops at FWHM = 320', but at a low dimensionless threshold ν = –2.5. Under a Gaussian assumption, this would amount to a deviation of ~4σ. However, the distribution in this bin is manifestly non-Gaussian and does not obey Poisson statistics either. In the absence of a true theoretical understanding, we simply note that the significance is higher than what may be resolved by 600 simulations, yielding an empirical p-value of at most 0.0016. Specifically in this case, our tests indicate that the numbers arise from a statistically stable regime, despite being based on small numbers. For the FFP10 dataset, the differences are not as strong as for the NPIPE dataset, indicating a 2.77σ deviation at this resolution and threshold. The Euler characteristic, which is the alternating sum of the ranks of relative homology groups, reflects the deviations in the components and loops. To assess the significance of combined levels for a given scale, we employed the empirical and theoretical versions of the χ 2 test as well as the nonparametric Tukey depth test. Although all statistics exhibit a stable distribution, we favor the empirical version of the χ 2 test in the final interpretation, as it indicates the most conservative differences. For the NPIPE dataset, we find that the components and loops differ at more than 95%, but agree within the 99% confidence level with respect to the base model at N = 32, FWHM = 320'. The Euler characteristic at this resolution displays a per mil deviation. In contrast, the FFP10 dataset shows that the observations are consistent with the base model within the 95% confidence level, at this and smaller scales. This is consistent with the observations of the Planck analysis pipeline via Minkowski functionals. For the largest smoothing scale, N = 16, FWHM = 640', both datasets exhibit an anomalous behavior of the loops, where FFP10 data exhibit a deviation that is larger by an order of magnitude than that of the NPIPE dataset. In contrast, the values for the topological components and the Euler characteristic agree between observations and model to within a confidence level of 99%. However, for the largest scales, the statistics are based on low numbers and may have to be regarded with caution. Even though both datasets exhibit mild to significant discrepancies, they also exhibit contrasting behaviors at various instances. Therefore, we do not find it feasible to convincingly accept or reject the null hypothesis. Disregarding the large-scale anomalies that persist at similar scales in WMAP and Planck, observations of the cosmic microwave background are largely consistent with the standard cosmological model within 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spectral evidence of solar neighborhood analogs in CALIFA galaxies

We introduce a novel nonparametric method to find solar neighborhood analogs (SNAs) in extragalactic integral field spectroscopic surveys. The main ansatz is that the physical properties of the solar neighborhood (SN) should be encoded in its optical stellar spectrum. We assume that our best estimate of such a spectrum is the one extracted from the analysis performed by the Code for Stellar properties Heuristic Assignment (CoSHA) from the MaStar stellar library. It follows that finding SNAs in other galaxies consist in matching, in a χ 2 sense, the SN reference spectrum across the optical extent of the observed galaxies. We applied this procedure to a selection of CALIFA galaxies, by requiring a close to face-on projection, relative isolation, and non-active galactic nucleus. We explore how the local and global properties of the SNAs (stellar age, metallicity, dust extinction, mass-to-light ratio, stellar surface mass density, star-formation density, and galactocentric distance) and their corresponding host galaxies (morphological type, total stellar mass, star-formation rate, and effective radius) compared with those of the SN and the Milky Way (MW). We find that SNAs are located preferentially in S(B)a–S(B)c galaxies, in a ring-like structure, which radii seem to scale with the galaxy size. Despite the known sources of systematics and errors, most properties present a considerable agreement with the literature on the SN. We conclude that the solar neighborhood is relatively common in our sample of SNAs. Our results warrant a systematic exploration of correlations among the physical properties of the SNAs and their host galaxies. We reckon that our method should inform current models of the galactic habitable zone in our MW and other galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Normative Ranges for Oculomotor and Reaction Time Tests in U.S. Military Service Members and Veterans

AbstractBackground Oculomotor and reaction time tests are frequently used assessments of vestibular symptoms, traumatic brain injury (TBI), or other neurological disorders in both clinical and research contexts. When interpreting these tests it is important to have a reference interval (RI) as a comparison for what constitutes a typical/expected response; however, the current body of research has only limited information regarding normative ranges calculated according to established standards or for a military-specific sample.Purpose The purpose of the present study was to describe RIs for oculomotor and reaction time tests in a cohort of service members and veterans (SMVs) for use as comparators by clinicians and scientists.Research Design Descriptive.Study Sample Participants were prospectively enrolled in the Defense and Veterans Brain Injury Center-Traumatic Brain Injury Center of Excellence 15-year Longitudinal Traumatic Brain Injury Study. Only SMVs without a history of TBI or blast exposure were included in the RI calculations.Data Collection and Analysis The test paradigms included in this analysis were: smooth pursuit, prosaccades, antisaccades, saccades and reaction time, predictive saccades, optokinetic nystagmus, auditory reaction time, and visual reaction time. Nonparametric methods, based on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's recognized consensus standards, were used to calculate 95% RIs. A comparison between the calculated RIs and those available from previously published research is provided.Results Summary statistics and RIs were calculated for 47 outcome parameters from 13 oculomotor and reaction time tests. Sample sizes and age ranges varied across outcome parameters depending on the availability of reference values for RI calculations. The sample sizes used to calculate RIs ranged from 51 to 69. The age of SMVs included in each RI ranged from 19 to 61 years with mean ages ranging from 37 to 39 years. Similarities/differences between the RIs in the present study and those in previously published research are highly dependent on the outcome parameter; however, in general, the RIs in the present study tended to be somewhat wider.Conclusion The RIs provided in this paper can serve as comparisons for clinicians and scientists who are utilizing these oculomotor and reaction time testing paradigms in similar cohorts of patients or research participants.

Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗

Estimating Sediment Settling Velocities from a Theoretically Guided Data-Driven Approach

Sediment settling velocities are commonly estimated from analytical or process-based approaches. These approaches have theoretical constraints due to the incompletely resolved settling physics. A parametric data-driven approach was recently proposed without theoretical constraints, but it is limited by its mathematical assumptions. To overcome these limitations, here we apply a machine learning algorithm to an aggregated sediment settling experimental database and develops a nonparametric data-driven model to estimate the noncohesive sediment settling velocity in water. A cross-comparison against five process-based equations and a parametric data-driven equation demonstrates the higher accuracy and better consistency of the new model in estimating sediment settling velocities under various physical regimes. The new model also shows an easily implemented self-update capability by assimilating theoretical data derived from the process-based equations. The updated model, incorporating experimental and theoretical data of sediment settling processes, further improves the accuracy and reduces the uncertainty in estimating sediment settling velocities. This study demonstrates the capability of machine learning in sediment transport study and illustrates an alternative framework for other hydraulic engineering challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗

MANOVA statistical analysis of inorganic compounds in groundwater Indonesia

The present study was carried out to determine levels of inorganic compounds contained in the ground water and Reverse Osmosis (RO) water filtration result. The data in groundwater samples was collected from Bekasi, Tangerang and Jakarta in Indonesia. A total of 30 samples were collected and analyzed for the determine Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Manganese (Mn), Cyanide (CN) and Lead (Pb). The results of the study revealed that in groundwater, the average of Cd 0.0058 mg / l, Mn 1.5233 mg / l, Cr 0.0127 mg/l, Pb 0.0060 mg / l, and CN 0.0040 mg / l. The level of RO result were: Cd 0.0027 mg / l, Mn 0.1767 mg / l, Cr 0.0024 mg / l, Pb 0.0021 mg / l, and CN 0.0023 mg / l . This means that Cd and Mn in ground water were higher than the values recommended by PAK-EPA and WHO or the standard of Indonesian Ministry of Health. But after filtration Reverse Osmosis (RO) Mn and Cd levels decreased to levels below the standardized value. By comparing of mean in MANOVA and nonparametric MANOVA in α=5%, there are differences in average levels of inorganic substances Mn, Cr, Cd, Pb, and CN between before and after RO filtration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulation of the output power of copper bromide lasers by the MARS method

The dependence of the output power of CuBr lasers (operating at wavelengths of 510.6 and 578.2 nm) on ten input physical parameters has been statistically analysed based on a large amount of experimental data accumulated for these lasers. Regression models have been built using the flexible nonparametric method of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to describe both linear and nonlinear local dependences. These models cover more than 97% initial data with an error comparable with the experimental error; they are applied to estimate and predict the output powers of both existing and future lasers. The advantage of the models constructed for estimating laser parameters over the standard parametric methods of multivariate factor and regression analysis is demonstrated.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Hydroacoustic Assessment of Behavioral Responses by Fish Passing Near an Operating Tidal Turbine in the East River, New York

An important environmental issue facing the marine and hydrokinetic energy industry is whether fish that encounter underwater energy devices are likely to be struck and injured by moving components, primarily rotating turbine blades. The automated analysis of nearly 3 weeks of multibeam hydroacoustics data identified about 35,000 tracks of fish passing a tidal turbine in the East River, New York. These tracks included both individual fish and schools during periods with the turbine absent, the turbine present and operating, and the turbine present but not operating. The density of fish in the sampled area when the turbine was absent was roughly twice the density observed when the turbine was in place, particularly when the turbine was operating. This suggests that some avoidance occurred before fish were close enough to the turbine to be observed by the hydroacoustics system. Various measures of swimming behavior (direction, velocity, and linearity) were calculated for each track and evaluated for indication of behavioral responses to turbine presence and operation. Fish tracks were grouped based on tidal cycle, current velocity, and swimming direction and were evaluated with respect to turbine presence and operation and with respect to distance from the turbine. Nonparametric tests (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test) and multivariate analysis (canonical discriminant analysis) found significant differences among groups with respect to turbine presence and operation, suggesting that some fish responded to the turbine by adjusting swimming behavior, such as making small adjustments to swimming direction and velocity as they passed near the turbine. We found no evidence that fish were being struck by rotating blades, but there did appear to be large-scale avoidance initiated out of the range of the hydroacoustics detection system. Furthermore, more study is needed to determine whether such avoidance behavior has significant ramifications for normal fish movement patterns, bioenergetics, seasonal migrations, and predator exposure.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Estimating Code Biases for Criticality Safety Applications with Few Relevant Benchmarks

Criticality safety analyses rely on the availability of relevant benchmark experiments to determine justifiable margins of subcriticality. When a target application lacks neutronically similar benchmark experiments, validation studies must provide justification to the regulator that the impact of modeling and simulation limitations is well understood for the application and often must provide additional subcritical margin to ensure safe operating conditions. This study estimated the computational bias in the critical eigenvalue for several criticality safety applications supported by only a few relevant benchmark experiments. The accuracy of the following three methods for predicting computational biases was evaluated: the Upper Subcritical Limit STATisticS (USLSTATS) trending analysis method; the Whisper nonparametric method; and TSURFER, which is based on the generalized linear least-squares technique. Here, these methods were also applied to estimate computational biases and recommended upper subcriticality limits for several critical experiments with known biases and for several cases from a blind benchmark study. The methods are evaluated based on both the accuracy of their predicted computation bias and upper subcriticality limit estimates, as well as on the consistency of the methods’ estimates, as the model parameters, covariance data libraries, and set of available benchmark data were varied. Data assimilation methods typically have not been used for criticality safety licensing activities, and this study explores a methodology to address concerns regarding the reliability of such methods in criticality safety bias prediction applications.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗