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DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Machine Learning to Predict MoS 2 Solid Lubricant Performance

Physical vapor deposited (PVD) molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings are an exemplar material system for machine learning methods due to small changes in process variables often causing large variations in microstructure and mechanical/tribological properties. Here, in this work, a gradient boosted regression tree machine learning method is applied to an existing experimental data set containing process, microstructure, and property information to create deeper insights into the process-structure–property relationships for molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings. The optimized and cross-validated models show good predictive capabilities for density, reduced modulus, hardness, wear rate, and initial coefficients of friction. The contribution of individual deposition variables (i.e., argon pressure, deposition power, target conditioning) on coating properties is highlighted through feature importance. The process-property relationships established herein show linear and non-linear relationships and highlight the influence of uncontrolled deposition variables (i.e., target conditioning) on the tribological performance.

MoS2↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probing gluon saturation with forward di-hadron correlations in proton-nucleus collisions

We present a detailed numerical investigation of semi-inclusive forward di-hadron production in proton–nucleus collisions employing the Color Glass Condensate effective theory. We focus on the regime where di-hadrons are produced nearly back-to-back in the transverse plane, thereby justifying a transverse-momentum-dependent factorization approach in terms of small-x gluon distributions. Our computation integrates several key elements: i) non-linear rapidity evolution via the Balitsky–Kovchegov equation with running coupling, ii) both perturbative and non-perturbative Sudakov resummation, and iii) a phenomenologically constrained model for the initial conditions for small-x gluon distributions. We compare this phenomenological framework to experimental data from the STAR Collaboration on azimuthal correlations in forward di-pion production in both proton–proton and proton–gold collisions. We analyze the systematic theoretical uncertainties associated with the saturation scales of nuclei at the initial scale for rapidity evolution and with those associated with the hadronization process. Finally, we make predictions for the kinematics anticipated to be covered by the ALICE Forward Calorimeter (FoCal) upgrade at the Large Hadron Collider.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Joint Optimization of Multimodal Transit Frequency and Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Size with Hybrid Metaheuristic and Nonlinear Programming

Shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) bring competition to traditional transit services but redesigning multimodal transit network can utilize SAVs as feeders to enhance service efficiency and coverage. This paper presents an optimization framework for the joint multimodal transit frequency and SAV fleet size problem, a variant of the transit network frequency setting problem. The objective is to maximize total transit ridership (including SAV-fed trips and subtracting boarding rejections) across multiple time periods under budget constraints, considering endogenous mode choice (transit, point-to-point SAVs, driving) and route selection, while allowing for strategic route removal by setting frequencies to zero. Due to the problem’s non-linear, non-convex nature and the computational challenges of large-scale networks, we develop a hybrid solution approach that combines a metaheuristic approach (particle swarm optimization) with nonlinear programming for local solution refinement. To ensure computational tractability, the framework integrates analytical approximation models for SAV waiting times based on fleet utilization, multimodal network assignment for route choice, and multinomial logit mode choice behavior, bypassing the need for computationally intensive simulations within the main optimization loop. Applied to the Chicago metropolitan area’s multimodal network, our method illustrates a 33.3% increase in transit ridership through optimized transit route frequencies and SAV integration, particularly enhancing off-peak service accessibility and strategically reallocating resources.

Ng, Max↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamically reconfigurable topological routing in nonlinear photonic systems

The propagation path of topologically protected states is bound to the interface between regions with different topology, and as such, the functionality of linear photonic devices leveraging these states is fixed during fabrication. Here, we propose a mechanism for dynamic control over a driven dissipative system’s local topology, yielding reconfigurable topological interfaces and thus tunable paths for protected routing. We illustrate our approach in non-resonantly pumped polariton lattices, where the nonlinear interaction between the polaritons and the exciton reservoir due to non-resonant pumping can yield picosecond-scale changes in the propagation paths of the chiral edge states. To analytically confirm the numerically observed topological dynamics, we generalize the spectral localizer framework to non-linear non-Hermitian Chern materials and apply this framework to a continuous model of the polariton system based on a driven-dissipative Gross-Pitaevskii equation. In doing so, we show that the local changes in the polariton lattice’s topology are captured by a local Chern marker. Looking forward, we anticipate such reconfigurable topological routing will enable the realization of novel classes of topological photonic devices.

Wong, Stephan [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-N↗

DOE OSTI2025

Derivation and verification of the direct-sampling method for simulating Monte Carlo flight paths in tetrahedral meshes with linear finite-element cross sections

This paper provides a derivation of a direct-sampling approach for modeling continuously varying cross sections in tetrahedral-mesh-based Monte Carlo codes. Specifically, cross sections are spatially approximated using linear nodal finite elements. A linearization strategy is provided for non-linearly varying cross sections. The method is verified against seven analytical pure-absorber test problems. These test problems also highlight the benefit of using linear finite elements over element-wise-constant cross sections.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Magnetorotational dynamo can generate large-scale vertical magnetic fields in 3D GRMHD simulations of accreting black holes

ABSTRACT Jetted astrophysical phenomena with black hole engines, including binary mergers, jetted tidal disruption events, and X-ray binaries, require a large-scale vertical magnetic field for efficient jet formation. However, a dynamo mechanism that could generate these crucial large-scale magnetic fields has not been identified and characterized. We have employed three-dimensional global general relativistic magnetohydrodynamical simulations of accretion discs to quantify, for the first time, a dynamo mechanism that generates large-scale magnetic fields. This dynamo mechanism primarily arises from the non-linear evolution of the magnetorotational instability (MRI). In this mechanism, large non-axisymmetric MRI-amplified shearing wave modes, mediated by the axisymmetric azimuthal magnetic field, generate and sustain the large-scale vertical magnetic field through their non-linear interactions. We identify the advection of magnetic loops as a crucial feature, transporting the large-scale vertical magnetic field from the outer regions to the inner regions of the accretion disc. This leads to a larger characteristic size of the, now advected, magnetic field when compared to the local disc height. We characterize the complete dynamo mechanism with two time-scales: one for the local magnetic field generation, $t_{\rm gen}$, and one for the large-scale scale advection, $t_{\rm adv}$. Whereas the dynamo we describe is non-linear, we explore the potential of linear mean field models to replicate its core features. Our findings indicate that traditional $\alpha$-dynamo models, often computed in stratified shearing box simulations, are inadequate and that the effective large-scale dynamics is better described by the shear current effects or stochastic $\alpha$-dynamos.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Small-scale signatures of primordial non-Gaussianity in k-nearest neighbour cumulative distribution functions

ABSTRACT Searches for primordial non-Gaussianity in cosmological perturbations are a key means of revealing novel primordial physics. However, robustly extracting signatures of primordial non-Gaussianity from non-linear scales of the late-time Universe is an open problem. In this paper, we apply k-Nearest Neighbour cumulative distribution functions, kNN-CDFs, to the quijote-png simulations to explore the sensitivity of kNN-CDFs to primordial non-Gaussianity. An interesting result is that for halo samples with $M_\mathrm{ h}\langle 10^{14}$ M$_\odot$ $h^{-1}$, the kNN-CDFs respond to equilateral PNG in a manner distinct from the other parameters. This persists in the galaxy catalogues in redshift space and can be differentiated from the impact of galaxy modelling, at least within the halo occupation distribution (HOD) framework considered here. kNN-CDFs are related to counts-in-cells and, through mapping a subset of the kNN-CDF measurements into the count-in-cells picture, we show that our results can be modelled analytically. A caveat of the analysis is that we only consider the HOD framework, including assembly bias. It will be interesting to validate these results with other techniques for modelling the galaxy–halo connection, e.g. (hybrid) effective field theory or semi-analytical methods.

Coulton, William R. (ORCID:0000000212973673)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review

Abstract To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Initializer for Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence

Power flow computations are fundamental to many power system studies. Obtaining a converged power flow case is not a trivial task especially in large power grids due to the non-linear nature of the power flow equations. One key challenge is that the widely used Newton based power flow methods are sensitive to the initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates, and a bad initial estimate would lead to non-convergence. This paper addresses this challenge by developing a random-forest (RF) machine learning model to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates towards achieving power flow convergence. This method was implemented on a real ERCOT 6102 bus system under various operating conditions. By providing better Newton-Raphson initialization, the RF model precipitated the solution of 2,106 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatches. These cases could not be solved from flat start or by initialization with the voltage solution of a reference case. Finally, results obtained from the RF initializer performed better when compared with DC power flow initialization, Linear regression, and Decision Trees.

random forest↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Power Flow Approximations With Second-Order Sensitivity Insights

The power flow equations are fundamental to power system planning, analysis, and control. However, the inherent non-linearity and non-convexity of these equations present formidable obstacles in problem-solving processes. To mitigate these challenges, recent research has proposed adaptive power flow linearizations that aim to achieve accuracy over wide operating ranges. The accuracy of these approximations inherently depends on the curvature of the power flow equations within these ranges, which necessitates considering second-order sensitivities. In this paper, we leverage second-order sensitivities to both analyze and improve power flow approximations. We evaluate the curvature across broad operational ranges and subsequently utilize this information to inform the computation of various sample-based power flow approximation techniques. Additionally, we leverage second-order sensitivities to guide the development of rational approximations that yield linear constraints in optimization problems. In conclusion, this approach is extended to enhance accuracy beyond the limitations of linear functions across varied operational scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of beam–beam effects on absolute luminosity calibrations at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

At the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), absolute luminosity calibrations obtained by the van der Meer (vdM) method are affected by the mutual electromagnetic interaction of the two beams. The colliding bunches experience relative orbit shifts, as well as optical distortions akin to the dynamic-β effect, that both depend on the transverse beam separation and must therefore be corrected for when deriving the absolute luminosity scale. In the vdM regime, the beam–beam parameter is small enough that the orbit shift can be calculated analytically. The dynamic-β corrections to the luminometer calibrations, however, had until the end of Run 2 been estimated in the linear approximation only. In this report, the influence of beam–beam effects on the vdM-based luminosity scale is quantified, together with the associated systematic uncertainties, by means of simulations that fully take into account the non-linearity of the beam–beam force, as well as the resulting non-Gaussian distortions of the transverse beam distributions. Two independent multiparticle simulations, one limited to the weak-strong approximation and one that models strong-strong effects in a self-consistent manner, are found in excellent agreement; both predict a percent-level shift of the absolute pp-luminosity values with respect to those assumed until recently in the physics publications of the LHC experiments. These results also provide guidance regarding further studies aimed at reducing the beam–beam-related systematic uncertainty on beam–beam corrections to absolute luminosity calibrations by the van der Meer method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

pvplr-python: Python package implementation of PVplr for Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis

Due to software fragmentation, PV system modeling teams can be limited to language specific packages, preventing cross-sectional analysis of different modeling techniques and workflows. To this end, PVplr, a popular PV performance modeling R software package, has been ported to the Python programming language. To verify and test the robustness of the port, NSRDB data has been used to simulated PV installations at native resolution (~2 million Sites), with a variety of degradation rates, degradation patterns, and modules. Performance Ratios were calculated using the ported functions from pvplr-python and compared against Rdtools YoY values. Due to the complicated nature of degradation, a new metric has been proposed to quantify the performance loss of a system. The cumulative production loss, is the total amount of energy lost due to the degrading performance of the system. Cumulative production loss alleviates the problems with fitting linear functions to non-linear degradation. Cumulative Production loss was shown to better estimate the total lost revenue for non-linear degradation patterns. $XbX + UTC$ was found to most accurately predict the total lost revenue in simulated systems.

Kumar, Suraj↗

DOE OSTI2025

SAM User's Guide

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is a modern system analysis tool being developed at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR safety analysis. It aims to provide fast-running, whole-plant transient analyses capability with improved-fidelity for Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFR), Lead-cooled Fast Reactors (LFR), and Molten Salt Reactors (MSR) or Fluoride-cooled High-temperature Reactors (FHR). SAM takes advantage of advances in physical modeling, numerical methods, and software engineering to enhance its user experience and usability. It utilizes an object-oriented application framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library (libMesh) and linear and non-linear solvers (PETSc), to leverage the modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. This document provides a user’s guide, which will help users understand the input description and core capabilities of the SAM code. A brief overview of the code is presented, as well as how to obtain and run it. The input syntax for various parts of the code is provided. Additionally, a number of example problems, starting with simple unit component problems to problems with increasing complexity, are provided. Because the code is still under active development, this SAM User’s Guide will evolve with periodic updates.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An entropy-based debiasing approach to quantifying experimental coverage for novel applications of interest in the nuclear community

This manuscript proposes a novel information-theoretic approach to the quantification of experimental relevance, i.e., coverage, to achieve optimal data assimilation results for nuclear engineering applications. Specifically, this work posits the need for a new metric, called coverage (q C ) of an application’s quantity of interest, i.e., eigenvalue or power peaking for an advanced reactor concept, defined herein as the theoretically maximum achievable reduction in the quantity’s uncertainty given measurements from a pool of experiments in a manner that is independent of the data assimilation procedure employed. Currently, reduction in a quantity’s uncertainty is strongly biased by the underlying assumptions of the assimilation procedure to account for the under-determined nature of such problems and the similarity criterion employed to identify relevant experiments. To address this challenge, this work has developed a coverage metric, q C , based on mutual information, which establishes a new conceptual framework for assessing coverage, one that is independent of the model parameters and responses degree of variations in both the experimental and application domains, i.e., linear vs non-linear, and their prior uncertainty distributions, i.e., Gaussian vs. non-Gaussian. The q C is an entropic measure capable of addressing coverage for general nonlinear problems with non-Gaussian uncertainties and inclusive of the measurement uncertainties from multiple experiments. Numerical experiments from manufactured analytical problems as well as a set of benchmarks from the ICSBEP handbook are employed to demonstrate its theoretical and practical performance as compared to the c k -based experiment selection methodology, commonly employed in the neutronic community. The manuscript then employs other well-known adaptations to existing data assimilation methodologies for nonlinear and non-Gaussian problems capable of achieving the coverage posited by q C .

Bayesian data assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal variability of wake impacts on US mid-Atlantic offshore wind plant power production

Abstract. The mid-Atlantic will experience rapid wind plant development due to its promising wind resource located near large population centers. Wind turbines and wind plants create wakes, or regions of reduced wind speed, that may negatively affect downwind turbines and plants. We evaluate wake variability and annual energy production with the first yearlong modeling assessment using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, deploying 12 MW turbines across the domain at a density of 3.14 MW km−2, matching the planned density of 3 MW km−2. Using a series of simulations with no wind plants, one wind plant, and complete build-out of lease areas, we calculate wake effects and distinguish the effect of wakes generated internally within one plant from those generated externally between plants. We also provide a first step towards uncertainty quantification by testing the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) by 0 % and 100 %. We provide a sensitivity analysis by additionally comparing 25 % and 50 % for a short case study period. The strongest wakes, propagating 55 km, occur in summertime stable stratification, just when New England's grid demand peaks in summer. The seasonal variability of wakes in this offshore region is much stronger than the diurnal variability of wakes. Overall, yearlong simulated wake impacts reduce power output by a range between 38.2 % and 34.1 % (for 0 %–100 % added TKE). Internal wakes cause greater yearlong power losses, from 29.2 % to 25.7 %, compared to external wakes, from 14.7 % to 13.4 %. The overall impact is different from the linear sum of internal wakes and external wakes due to non-linear processes. Additional simulations quantify wake uncertainty by modifying the added amount of turbulent kinetic energy from wind turbines, introducing power output variability of 3.8 %. Finally, we compare annual energy production to New England grid demand and find that the lease areas can supply 58.8 % to 61.2 % of annual load. We note that the results of this assessment are not intended to make nor are they suitable to make commercial judgments about specific wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: optimized $w$CDM simulation-based inference with weak lensing map-level hybrid statistics

We present cosmological constraints from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing data using hierarchical hybrid statistics within a Bayesian simulation-based inference framework that is based on the Gower Street simulations. To maximize the precision of the inference, we have developed a new, information-theory based, data compression of the weak lensing maps to just seven highly informative summary statistics. The hybrid scheme exploits the high information content of the power spectrum, compressing both the power spectrum and neural-based summaries that are designed to extract further information. Our simulation-based approach enables principled forward modelling of all major sources of systematic uncertainty and survey properties into realistic mock observations, including the survey mask, photometric redshift uncertainties, intrinsic galaxy alignments, multiplicative shear calibration bias, source galaxy clustering, non-Gaussian shape noise, and non-linear structure formation. The summary statistics are then used in a Bayesian simulation-based inference pipeline. The inference is validated through coverage tests and checks for robustness against baryonic feedback. Assuming a $w$CDM cosmology, our analysis yields $S_8 = 0.808 \pm 0.017$, $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.325 \pm 0.024$, and $w < -0.766$ (marginalized posterior 68 per cent credible intervals). This rigorous combination of information theory, physics- and neural network-based extreme data compression, and principled Bayesian analysis improves the figure of merit for $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ by 60 per cent over the previous state-of-the-art, and by almost a factor of 3 over two-point analyses of the same data. They are the most precise joint constraints on $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ from weak gravitational lensing data alone of any survey to date. We intend to apply this analysis to the more recent DES Y6 data.

Williamson, J. [University Coll. London]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gravitational Waves as a Source of Large-Scale White Noise: New Constraints

A stochastic gravitational wave (GW) background sources a shear in the flow of cosmic fluid which, through non-linear mode coupling, generates large-scale white noise (LSWN) in the kurvature density field. Building on the LSWN framework of our previous work, we derive the amplitude of this GW-induced LSWN and translate the observational non-detection of LSWN into bounds on the production redshift and density of gravity waves. In particular, a minimal constraint on gravity waves with $z=0$ density parameter $Ω_\mathrm{GW0}^*$ in frequency band $f_*$ generated at redshift $z_*$ must satisfy ${z_*}^2\,Ω_\mathrm{GW0}^*<5\times10^7\,(f_*/\mathrm{nHz})^{3/2}$. This, for example, precludes the gravity waves recently detected by pulsar timing arrays \cite{NANOGrav:2023hvm} from being present before $z_*\sim10^8$, long after the quark hadron phase transition. While orders of magnitude stronger than other constraints on gravity waves, this is a minimal LSWN constraint as realistic modeling of early universe gravity wave production, including the granularity of the gravity-wave sources and the LSWN produced by the associated acoustic waves would probably tighten this constraint by orders of magnitude.

Barenboim, Gabriela [Valencia U., IFIC; Valencia U↗