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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

General Multifidelity Surrogate Models: Framework and Active-Learning Strategies for Efficient Rare Event Simulation

Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. Here, this paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vitality models found useful in modeling tag-failure times in acoustic-tag survival studies

Abstract Acoustic telemetry studies often rely on the assumption that premature tag failure does not affect the validity of inferences. However, in some cases this assumption is possibly or likely invalid and it is necessary to apply a correction to estimation procedures. The question of which approaches and specific models are best suited to modeling acoustic tag failures has received little research attention. In this short communication, we present a meta-analysis of 42 acoustic tag-life studies, originally used to correct survival studies involving outmigrating juvenile salmonids in the Columbia/Snake river basin. We compare the performance of nine alternative parametric models including common failure–time/survival models and the vitality models of Li and Anderson Theor Popul Biol 76:118–131, (2009) and Demogr Res 28:341–372, (2013). The tag-life studies used acoustic tags from three different tag manufacturers, had expected lifetimes between 12 and 61 days, and had dry weights ranging from 0.22 to 1.65 g. In 57% of the cases, the vitality models of Li and Anderson Theor Popul Biol 76:118–131, (2009) and Demogr Res 28:341–372, (2013) fit the tag-failure times best. The vitality models were also the second-best choices in 17% of the cases. Together, the vitality models, log-logistic, (19%), and gamma models (14%) accounted for 90% of the models selected. Unlike more traditional failure–time models (e.g., Weibull, Gompertz, gamma, and log-logistic), the vitality models are capable of characterizing both the early onset of tag failure due to manufacturing errors and the anticipated battery life. We provide further guidance on appropriate sample sizes (50–100 tags) and procedures to be considered when applying precise tag-life corrections in release–recapture survival studies.

Skalski, John R. (ORCID:0000000270702505)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of Machine Learning Approaches to Estimate Aerosol Mixing State Metrics in Atmospheric Models

Aerosol mixing state describes how aerosol compositions are distributed among atmospheric aerosol particles in a population. Oversimplified assumptions of aerosol mixing state in atmospheric modeling can introduce errors in estimations of weather and climate-relevant aerosol microphysical properties. A more comprehensive representation of the aerosol mixing state can be achieved in principle with a Particle-resolved Monte Carlo (PartMC) model but at added computational cost that may be prohibitive for direct invocation in operational numerical weather prediction or multi-year climate simulations. The aim of our research is to explore the machine learning (ML) methodologies for estimating aerosol mixing state metrics, which we define here in three different ways: with respect to (a) hygroscopicity; (b) optical properties; and (c) chemical species abundance. We adopted a data-driven approach, leveraging deep learning and statistical learning techniques, to take advantage of massive PartMC model simulations. First, we performed particle-resolved simulations by PartMC to create a series of scenarios considering a range of global environmental conditions. Each scenario consists of aerosol populations and corresponding mixing state metrics. The gas concentration, aerosol mass concentration, environmental variables and mixing state metrics of each population constitute the datasets for machine learning implementations. We have adopted and evaluated various configurations of machine learning methodologies in this investigation, embracing deep learning, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, and the ensemble approaches. After a rigorous model selection process, we identified an appropriate model to derive estimates of aerosol mixing state metrics. We used the computational and data resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) and the ORNL Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES). The NVIDIA DGX-1 hardware was used for the prototyping of the ML models. Our approach has allowed us to gain a new understanding of how machine learning methodologies can be applied to improve the representation of aerosol mixing state in atmospheric models and benefit the atmospheric research community. Next, we plan to extend our research and methodology to quantify some of the aerosol-related uncertainties in the E3SM Atmospheric Model (EAM) Version 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Models are Instrumental in Analyzing Decarbonization Strategies

This presentations provides a high-level overview of the NETL-developed techno-economic models associated with the CO2 transport and CO2 storage components of the carbon capture and storage (CCS)/carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) value chain. It also discusses the models’ capabilities through the discussion of select modeling applications (both internal and external) and highlights current model modifications and future work. It was presented at the CCUS 2023 conference, organized and presented by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), and Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) and held in Houston, Texas, April 25-27, 2023.

Guinan, Allison↗
DOE OSTI2019

Bayesian inference and predictive performance of soil respiration models in the presence of model discrepancy

Bayesian inference of microbial soil respiration models is often based on the assumptions that the residuals are independent (i.e., no temporal or spatial correlation), identically distributed (i.e., Gaussian noise), and have constant variance (i.e., homoscedastic). In the presence of model discrepancy, as no model is perfect, this study shows that these assumptions are generally invalid in soil respiration modeling such that residuals have high temporal correlation, an increasing variance with increasing magnitude of CO 2 efflux, and non-Gaussian distribution. Relaxing these three assumptions stepwise results in eight data models. Data models are the basis of formulating likelihood functions of Bayesian inference. This study presents a systematic and comprehensive investigation of the impacts of data model selection on Bayesian inference and predictive performance. We use three mechanistic soil respiration models with different levels of model fidelity (i.e., model discrepancy) with respect to the number of carbon pools and the explicit representations of soil moisture controls on carbon degradation; therefore, we have different levels of model complexity with respect to the number of model parameters. The study shows that data models have substantial impacts on Bayesian inference and predictive performance of the soil respiration models such that the following points are true: (i) the level of complexity of the best model is generally justified by the cross-validation results for different data models; (ii) not accounting for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation might not necessarily result in biased parameter estimates or predictions, but will definitely underestimate uncertainty; (iii) using a non-Gaussian data model improves the parameter estimates and the predictive performance; and (iv) accounting for autocorrelation only or joint inversion of correlation and heteroscedasticity can be problematic and requires special treatment. Although the conclusions of this study are empirical, the analysis may provide insights for selecting appropriate data models for soil respiration modeling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dark matter interpretations of ATLAS searches for the electroweak production of supersymmetric particles in $ \sqrt{s}=8 $ TeV proton-proton collisions

A selection of searches by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC for the electroweak production of SUSY particles are used to study their impact on the constraints on dark matter candidates. The searches use 20 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at √s=8 TeV. A likelihood-driven scan of a five-dimensional effective model focusing on the gaugino-higgsino and Higgs sector of the phenomenological minimal supersymmetric Standard Model is performed. This scan uses data from direct dark matter detection experiments, the relic dark matter density and precision flavour physics results. Further constraints from the ATLAS Higgs mass measurement and SUSY searches at LEP are also applied. A subset of models selected from this scan are used to assess the impact of the selected ATLAS searches in this five-dimensional parameter space. These ATLAS searches substantially impact those models for which the mass m($\tilde{χ}$$0\atop{1}$) of the lightest neutralino is less than 65 GeV, excluding 86% of such models. The searches have limited impact on models with larger m($\tilde{χ}$$0\atop{1}$) due to either heavy electroweakinos or compressed mass spectra where the mass splittings between the produced particles and the lightest supersymmetric particle is small.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning for Subsurface Flow: A Comparative Study of U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators, and Transformers in Underground Hydrogen Storage

Subsurface flow research is essential for the sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. Deep learning (DL) has significantly advanced this field by developing efficient and accurate surrogate models to replace computationally expensive physics‐based simulations. These surrogate models are commonly used to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of state variables, such as gas saturation and reservoir pressure, in heterogeneous geological formations. Despite the various DL models applied to this task, there is a lack of studies systematically comparing their performance. This absence of comparative analysis leads to somewhat arbitrary DL model selection in subsurface flow research, resulting in suboptimal performance and potentially inaccurate predictions. To bridge this gap, we conduct a systematic comparison study of three popular DL architectures—U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and Segmentation Transformer (SETR)—in surrogate modeling of underground hydrogen storage (UHS). We focus on UHS due to its promise of enhancing clean energy resilience and its cyclic operational conditions that represent common scenarios in various subsurface applications. We evaluate the models based on accuracy, training cost, and inference speed. The comparison shows that U‐Net achieves the highest accuracy, followed by SETR and FNO. Despite its lower accuracy, FNO has the highest inference speed. SETR offers competitive accuracy with the least training memory usage, demonstrating the potential of transformers in learning subsurface flow. Our results provide guidance for selecting DL models for surrogate modeling in a wide range of subsurface flow problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Environment-sensitivity functions for gross primary productivity in light use efficiency models

The sensitivity of photosynthesis to environmental changes is essential for understanding carbon cycle responses to global climate change and for the development of modeling approaches that explains its spatial and temporal variability. We collected a large variety of published sensitivity functions of gross primary productivity (GPP) to different forcing variables to assess the response of GPP to environmental factors. These include the responses of GPP to temperature; vapor pressure deficit, some of which include the response to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations; soil water availability (W); light intensity; and cloudiness. These functions were combined in a full factorial light use efficiency (LUE) model structure, leading to a collection of 5600 distinct LUE models. Each model was optimized against daily GPP and evapotranspiration fluxes from 196 FLUXNET sites and ranked across sites based on a bootstrap approach. The GPP sensitivity to each environmental factor, including CO 2 fertilization, was shown to be significant, and that none of the previously published model structures performed as well as the best model selected. From daily and weekly to monthly scales, the best model's median Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency across sites was 0.73, 0.79 and 0.82, respectively, but poorer at annual scales (0.23), emphasizing the common limitation of current models in describing the interannual variability of GPP. Although the best global model did not match the local best model at each site, the selection was robust across ecosystem types. The contribution of light saturation and cloudiness to GPP was observed across all biomes (from 23% to 43%). Temperature and W dominates GPP and LUE but responses of GPP to temperature and W are lagged in cold and arid ecosystems, respectively. The findings of this study provide a foundation towards more robust LUE-based estimates of global GPP and may provide a benchmark for other empirical GPP products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Importance of Engineered and Learned Molecular Representations in Predicting Organic Reactivity, Selectivity, and Chemical Properties

Machine-readable chemical structure representations are foundational in all attempts to harness machine learning for the prediction of reactivities, selectivities, and chemical properties directly from molecular structure. The featurization of discrete chemical structures into a continuous vector space is a critical phase undertaken before model selection, and the development of new ways to quantitatively encode molecules is an active area of research. Here, we highlight the application and suitability of different representations, from expert-guided “engineered” descriptors to automatically “learned” features, in different prediction tasks relevant to organic and organometallic chemistry, where differing amounts of training data are available. These tasks include statistical models of stereo- and enantioselectivity, thermochemistry, and kinetics developed using experimental and quantum chemical data. The use of expert-guided molecular descriptors provides an opportunity to incorporate chemical knowledge, domain expertise, and physical constraints into statistical modeling. In applications to stereoselective organic and organometallic catalysis, where data sets may be relatively small and 3D-geometries and conformations play an important role, mechanistically informed features can be used successfully to obtain predictive statistical models that are also chemically interpretable. We provide an overview of several recent applications of this approach to obtain quantitative models for reactivity and selectivity, where topological descriptors, quantum mechanical calculations of electronic and steric properties, along with conformational ensembles, all feature as essential ingredients of the molecular representations used. Alternatively, more flexible, general-purpose molecular representations such as attributed molecular graphs can be used with machine learning approaches to learn the complex relationship between a structure and prediction target. This approach has the potential to out-perform more traditional representation methods such as “hand-crafted” molecular descriptors, particularly as data set sizes grow. One area where this is particularly relevant is in the use of large sets of quantum mechanical data to train quantitative structure–property relationships. A general approach toward curating useful data sets and training highly accurate graph neural network models is discussed in the context of organic bond dissociation enthalpies, where this strategy outperforms regression using precomputed descriptors. Finally, we describe how graph neural network predictions can be incorporated into mechanistically informed statistical models of chemical reactivity and selectivity. Once trained, this approach avoids the expensive computational overhead associated with quantum mechanical calculations, while maintaining chemical interpretability. We illustrate examples for which fast predictions of bond dissociation enthalpy and of the identities of radicals formed through cleavage of a molecule’s weakest bond are used in simple physical models of site-selectivity and reactivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty for deep learning based forecasting and flow-reconstruction using neural architecture search ensembles

Classical problems in computational physics such as data-driven forecasting and signal reconstruction from sparse sensors have recently seen an explosion in deep neural network (DNN) based algorithmic approaches. However, most DNN models do not provide uncertainty estimates, which are crucial for establishing the trustworthiness of these techniques in downstream decision making tasks and scenarios. In recent years, ensemble-based methods have achieved significant success for the uncertainty quantification in DNNs on a number of benchmark problems. However, their performance on real-world applications remains under-explored. In this work, we present an automated approach to DNN discovery and demonstrate how this may also be utilized for ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. Specifically, we propose the use of a scalable neural and hyperparameter architecture search for discovering an ensemble of DNN models for complex dynamical systems. We highlight how the proposed method not only discovers high-performing neural network ensembles for our tasks, but also quantifies uncertainty seamlessly. This is achieved by using genetic algorithms and Bayesian optimization for sampling the search space of neural network architectures and hyperparameters. Subsequently, a model selection approach is used to identify candidate models for an ensemble set construction. Afterwards, a variance decomposition approach is used to estimate the uncertainty of the predictions from the ensemble. We demonstrate the feasibility of this framework for two tasks — forecasting from historical data and flow reconstruction from sparse sensors for the sea-surface temperature. In conclusion, we demonstrate superior performance from the ensemble in contrast with individual high-performing models and other benchmarks.

Deep ensembles↗
NASA NTRS1992

NASA Instep/mdmsc Jitter Suppression Experiment (JITTER)

The objectives are the following: (1) to develop and demonstrate in-space performance of both passive and active damping systems for suppression of micro-amplitude vibration on an actual application structure and operate despite uncertain dynamics and uncertain disturbance characteristics; and (2) to correlate ground and in-space performance - the performance metric is vibration attenuation. The goals are to achieve vibration suppression equivalent to 5 percent passive damping in selected models and 15 percent active damping in selected modes. Various aspects of this experiment are presented in viewgraph form.

White, Edward V.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can machine learning accelerate process understanding and decision‐relevant predictions of river water quality?

Abstract The global decline of water quality in rivers and streams has resulted in a pressing need to design new watershed management strategies. Water quality can be affected by multiple stressors including population growth, land use change, global warming, and extreme events, with repercussions on human and ecosystem health. A scientific understanding of factors affecting riverine water quality and predictions at local to regional scales, and at sub‐daily to decadal timescales are needed for optimal management of watersheds and river basins. Here, we discuss how machine learning (ML) can enable development of more accurate, computationally tractable, and scalable models for analysis and predictions of river water quality. We review relevant state‐of‐the art applications of ML for water quality models and discuss opportunities to improve the use of ML with emerging computational and mathematical methods for model selection, hyperparameter optimization, incorporating process knowledge into ML models, improving explainablity, uncertainty quantification, and model‐data integration. We then present considerations for using ML to address water quality problems given their scale and complexity, available data and computational resources, and stakeholder needs. When combined with decades of process understanding, interdisciplinary advances in knowledge‐guided ML, information theory, data integration, and analytics can help address fundamental science questions and enable decision‐relevant predictions of riverine water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian modeling of traffic-related air pollutants: A case study of urban transportation and air quality dynamics in Columbia, South Carolina

Traffic emissions significantly impact near-road air quality and public health. This research applies a Bayesian modeling framework to investigate these impacts using high-resolution traffic and air pollutant data from an urban corridor in Columbia, South Carolina. Despite a data collection period truncated by the COVID-19 lockdown, the Bayesian approach successfully identified significant predictors and quantified model uncertainty. Employing Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging enhanced prediction accuracy and evaluated model uncertainty. Findings indicate that higher temperatures and increased moisture levels elevate particulate matter (PM 1.0 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) concentrations, while traffic speed significantly affects nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels. Specifically, higher average traffic speeds (indicative of smoother flow) correspond to lower NO 2 concentrations, suggesting that less congested conditions reduce NO 2 emissions. This study highlights the robustness of Bayesian methods for generating reliable air quality insights even under data-constrained conditions. The findings underscore the importance of traffic flow management (e.g., reducing congestion) for mitigating near-road NO 2 exposure and provide a basis for developing targeted public health strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

SANS quantification of bound water in water-soluble polymers across multiple concentration regimes

Contrast-variation small-angle neutron scattering (CV-SANS) is a widely used technique for quantifying hydration water in soft matter systems, but it is predominantly applied in the dilute regime or for systems with a well-defined structure factor. Here, CV-SANS was used to quantify the number of hydration water molecules associating with three water-soluble polymers with different critical solution temperatures and types of water–solute interactions in dilute, semidilute, and concentrated solution through the exploration of novel methods of data fitting and analysis. Multiple SANS fitting workflows with varying levels of model assumptions were evaluated and compared to give insight into SANS model selection. These fitting pathways ranged from general, model-free algorithms to more standard form and structure factor fitting. In addition, Monte Carlo bootstrapping was evaluated as a method to estimate parameter uncertainty through simulation of technical replicates. The most robust fitting workflow for dilute solutions was found to be form factor fitting without CV-SANS ( i.e. polymer in 100% D 2 O). For semidilute and concentrated solutions, while the model-free approach can be mathematically defined for CV-SANS data, the addition of a structure factor imposes physical constraints on the optimization problem, suggesting that the optimal fitting pathway should include appropriate form and structure factor models. The measured hydration numbers were consistent with the number of tightly bound water molecules associated with each monomer unit, and the concentration dependence of the hydration number was largely governed by the chemistry-specific interactions between water and polymer. Polymers with weaker water–polymer interactions ( i.e. those with fewer hydration water molecules) were found to have more bound water at higher concentrations than those with stronger water–polymer interactions due to the increase in the number of forced water–polymer contacts in the concentrated system. This SANS-based method to count hydration water molecules can be applied to polymers in any concentration regime, which will lead to improved understanding of water–polymer interactions and their impact on materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Narrowing down the possible explanations of cosmic acceleration with geometric probes

Recent re-calibration of the Type Ia supernova (SNe Ia) magnitude-redshift relation combined with cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data have provided excellent constraints on the standard cosmological model. Here, we examine particular classes of alternative cosmologies, motivated by various physical mechanisms, e.g. scalar fields, modified gravity and phase transitions to test their consistency with observations of SNe Ia and the ratio of the angular diameter distances from the CMB and BAO. Using a model selection criterion for a relative comparison of the models (the Bayes Factor), we find moderate to strong evidence that the data prefer flat ΛCDM over models invoking a thawing behaviour of the quintessence scalar field. However, some exotic models like the growing neutrino mass cosmology and vacuum metamorphosis still present acceptable evidence values. The bimetric gravity model with only the linear interaction term as well as a simplified Galileon model can be ruled out by the combination of SNe Ia and CMB/BAO datasets whereas the model with linear and quadratic interaction terms has a comparable evidence value to standard ΛCDM. Thawing models are found to have significantly poorer evidence compared to flat ΛCDM cosmology under the assumption that the CMB compressed likelihood provides an adequate description for these non-standard cosmologies. We also present estimates for constraints from future data and find that geometric probes from oncoming surveys can put severe limits on non-standard cosmological models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolutionary lineage explains trait variation among 75 coexisting grass species

Summary Evolutionary history plays a key role driving patterns of trait variation across plant species. For scaling and modeling purposes, grass species are typically organized into C 3 vs C 4 plant functional types (PFTs). Plant functional type groupings may obscure important functional differences among species. Rather, grouping grasses by evolutionary lineage may better represent grass functional diversity. We measured 11 structural and physiological traits in situ from 75 grass species within the North American tallgrass prairie. We tested whether traits differed significantly among photosynthetic pathways or lineages (tribe) in annual and perennial grass species. Critically, we found evidence that grass traits varied among lineages, including independent origins of C 4 photosynthesis. Using a rigorous model selection approach, tribe was included in the top models for five of nine traits for perennial species. Tribes were separable in a multivariate and phylogenetically controlled analysis of traits, owing to coordination of important structural and ecophysiological characteristics. Our findings suggest grouping grass species by photosynthetic pathway overlooks variation in several functional traits, particularly for C 4 species. These results indicate that further assessment of lineage‐based differences at other sites and across other grass species distributions may improve representation of C 4 species in trait comparison analyses and modeling investigations.

Donnelly, Ryan C.↗