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At least 217 records · Page 12

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗

Tuning and Robustness Analysis for the Orion Absolute Navigation System

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is currently under development as NASA's next-generation spacecraft for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. The MPCV is set to perform an orbital test flight, termed Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), some time in late 2014. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to show the efforts made to-date in tuning the filter for the EFT-1 mission and instilling appropriate robustness into the system to meet the requirements of manned space ight. Filter performance is affected by many factors: data rates, sensor measurement errors, tuning, and others. This paper focuses mainly on the error characterization and tuning portion. Traditional efforts at tuning a navigation filter have centered around the observation/measurement noise and Gaussian process noise of the Extended Kalman Filter. While the Orion MODE team must certainly address those factors, the team is also looking at residual edit thresholds and measurement underweighting as tuning tools. Tuning analysis is presented with open loop Monte-Carlo simulation results showing statistical errors bounded by the 3-sigma filter uncertainty covariance. The Orion filter design uses 24 Exponentially Correlated Random Variable (ECRV) parameters to estimate the accel/gyro misalignment and nonorthogonality. By design, the time constant and noise terms of these ECRV parameters were set to manufacturer specifications and not used as tuning parameters. They are included in the filter as a more analytically correct method of modeling uncertainties than ad-hoc tuning of the process noise. Tuning is explored for the powered-flight ascent phase, where measurements are scarce and unmodelled vehicle accelerations dominate. On orbit, there are important trade-off cases between process and measurement noise. On entry, there are considerations about trading performance accuracy for robustness. Process Noise is divided into powered flight and coasting ight and can be adjusted for each phase and mode of the Orion EFT-1 mission. Measurement noise is used for the integrated velocity measurements during pad alignment. It is also used for Global Positioning System (GPS) pseudorange and delta- range measurements during the rest of the flight. The robustness effort has been focused on maintaining filter convergence and performance in the presence of unmodeled error sources. These include unmodeled forces on the vehicle and uncorrected errors on the sensor measurements. Orion uses a single-frequency, non-keyed GPS receiver, so the effects due to signal distortion in Earth's ionosphere and troposphere are present in the raw measurements. Results are presented showing the efforts to compensate for these errors as well as characterize the residual effect for measurement noise tuning. Another robustness tool in use is tuning the residual edit thresholds. The trade-off between noise tuning and edit thresholds is explored in the context of robustness to errors in dynamics models and sensor measurements. Measurement underweighting is also presented as a method of additional robustness when processing highly accurate measurements in the presence of large filter uncertainties.

Holt, Greg N.↗

Systematic Errors in Stereo PIV When Imaging through a Glass Window

This document assesses the magnitude of velocity measurement errors that may arise when performing stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) with cameras viewing through thick, refractive window and where the calibration is performed in one plane only. The effect of the window is to introduce a refractive error that increases with window thickness and the camera angle of incidence. The calibration should be performed while viewing through the test section window, otherwise a potentially significant error may be introduced that affects each velocity component differently. However, even when the calibration is performed correctly, another error may arise during the stereo reconstruction if the perspective angle determined for each camera does not account for the displacement of the light rays as they refract through the thick window. Care should be exercised when applying in a single-plane calibration since certain implicit assumptions may in fact require conditions that are extremely difficult to meet in a practical laboratory environment. It is suggested that the effort expended to ensure this accuracy may be better expended in performing a more lengthy volumetric calibration procedure, which does not rely upon the assumptions implicit in the single plane method and avoids the need for the perspective angle to be calculated.

Green, Richard↗

On the Validation of Satellite-Derived Sea Ice Surface Temperature

The surface temperature of sea ice controls the rate of ice growth and heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. An algorithm for the satellite retrieval of ice surface temperature has recently been published, but due to the lack of validation data has not been extensively tested. In this paper, data from a recent Arctic field experiment is used in an attempt to validate that algorithm. While the procedure is, in principle, straightforward, we demonstrate that validation is complicated by a variety of factors, including incorrectly assumed atmospheric conditions, undetected clouds in the satellite data, spatial and temporal variability in the surface temperature field, and surface and satellite measurement errors. Comparisons between surface temperatures determined from upwelling broadband longwave radiation, spatial measurements of narrow-band radiation, thermocouples buried just below the snow surface, and narrow-band satellite data show differences of 1 to 3 deg. C. The range in these independent measurements indicates the need for specially designed validation experiments utilizing narrow-band radiometers on aircraft to obtain broad spatial coverage.

Key, J.↗

Data Fusion of In-Flight Aerothermodynamic Heating Measurements Using Kalman Filtering

On February 18th, 2021, the Mars 2020 entry system successfully delivered the Perserverance rover to the surface of Mars at Jezero Crater. The entry capsule carried a set of instrumentation installed on the heat shield and backshell, named the Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation. The instruments include pressure transducers, thermocouples, heat flux gauges, and radiometers to measure the aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance of the entry vehicle. Three of these sensors, a thermocouple plug, heat flux gauge, and a radiometer, are located in close proximity on the backshell. Each sensor is exposed to roughly the same environment, but measured these environments in different ways, each with its own set of modeling and measurement error complications. This paper develops a method for blending each of these measurements together in a single algorithm to produce estimates of the aerothermodynamic environments at that location on the backshell. The approach makes use of the Kalman filter methodology for solving state estimation problems. The filter has a predictor/corrector structure in which simplified process models are used to propagate the aeroheating states forward through time, which are then updated based on the measurement data. The method has been tested on simulated datasets.

Christopher D. Karlgaard↗

Measurement of Low Amounts of Precipitable Water Vapor Using Ground-Based Millimeterwave Radiometry

Extremely dry conditions characterized by amounts of precipitable water vapor (PWV) as as 1-2 mm commonly occur in high-latitude regions during the winter months. While such atmospheres carry only a few percent of the latent heat energy compared to tropical atmospheres, the effects of low vapor amounts on the polar radiation budget - both directly through modulation of longwave radiation and indirectly through the formation of clouds - are considerable. Accurate measurements of precipitable water vapor (PWV) during such dry conditions are needed to improve polar radiation models for use in understanding and predicting change in the climatically sensitive polar regions. To this end, the strong water vapor absorption at 183.310 GHz provides a unique means of measuring low amounts of PWV. Weighting function analysis, forward model calculations based upon a 7-year radiosonde dataset, and retrieval simulations consistently predict that radiometric measurements made using several millimeter-wavelength (MMW) channels near the 183 GHz line, together with established microwave (MW) measurements at the 22.235 GHz water vapor line and -3 1 GHz atmospheric absorption window can be used to determine within 5% uncertainty the full range of PWV expected in the Arctic. This unique collective capability stands in spite of accuracy limitations stemming from uncertainties due to the sensitivity of the vertical distribution of temperature and water vapor at MMW channels. In this study the potential of MMW radiometry using the 183 GHz line for measuring low amounts of PWV is demonstrated both theoretically and experimentally. The study uses data obtained during March 1999 as part of an experiment conducted at the Department of Energy s Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) near Barrow, Alaska. Several radiometers from both NOAA and NASA were deployed during the experiment to provide the first combined MMW and MW ground-based data set during dry arctic conditions. Single-channel retrievals of PWV were performed using the MW and MMW data. Discrepancies in the retrieved values were found to be consistent with differences observed between measured brightness temperatures (TBs) and forward-modeled TBs based on concurrent radiosonde profiles. These discrepancies are greater than can be explained by measurement error alone and are attributed to absorption model uncertainty. We discuss here the measurements, retrieval technique, and line model discrepancies along with difficulties and potential of MMW/MW PWV measurement.

Racette, Paul E.↗

Shack-Hartmann Phasing of Segmented Telescopes: Systematic Effects from Lenslet Arrays

The segments in the Keck telescopes are routinely phased using a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor with sub-apertures that span adjacent segments. However, one potential limitation to the absolute accuracy of this technique is that it relies on a lenslet array (or a single lens plus a prism array) to form the subimages. These optics have the potential to introduce wavefront errors and stray reflections at the subaperture level that will bias the phasing measurement. We present laboratory data to quantify this effect, using measured errors from Keck and two other lenslet arrays. In addition, as part of the design of the Thirty Meter Telescope Alignment and Phasing System we present a preliminary investigation of a lenslet-free approach that relies on Fresnel diffraction to form the subimages at the CCD. Such a technique has several advantages, including the elimination of lenslet aberrations.

segmented mirrors↗

Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch Estimation

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their abilities to describe the true uncertainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or unknown. Results are presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Estimation↗

An analysis of the least-squares problem for the DSN systematic pointing error model

A systematic pointing error model is used to calibrate antennas in the Deep Space Network. The least squares problem is described and analyzed along with the solution methods used to determine the model's parameters. Specifically studied are the rank degeneracy problems resulting from beam pointing error measurement sets that incorporate inadequate sky coverage. A least squares parameter subset selection method is described and its applicability to the systematic error modeling process is demonstrated on Voyager 2 measurement distribution.

Alvarez, L. S.↗

High precision photometry with fiber optics

This paper discusses the issues involved in measurements made with high-precision multichannel photometers that use cryogenically cooled detectors and optical fibers to bring the light from the star images to the dewar and then to the detectors. The use of optical fibers introduces photometric errors. Measurements are presented of the errors caused by small changes in the position of the image on the fiber.

Borucki, W. J.↗

Efficient algorithms for robust feature matching

One of the basic building blocks in any point-based registration scheme involves matching feature points that are extracted from the sensed image to their counterparts in the reference image. This leads to the fundamental problem of point matching: given two sets of points, find the affine transformation that transforms one point set so that its distance from the other point set is minimized. Because of measurement errors and the presence of outlying data points, it is important that the distance measure between two point sets be robust to these effects. We measure distances using the generalized Hausdorff distance. Point matching can be a computationally intensive task, and there have been a number of algorithms and approaches proposed for solving this problem both theoretical and applied. We present two approaches to the point matching problem, in an attempt to reduce the computational complexity of the problem, while still providing guarantees on the quality of the final match. Our first method is an approximation algorithm, which is loosely based on a branch-and-bound approach due to Huttenlocher and Rucklidge. We show that by varying the approximation error bounds, it is possible to achieve a tradeoff between the quality of the match and the running time of the algorithm. Our second method involves a Monte Carlo method for accelerating the search process used in the first algorithm. With high probability this method succeeds in finding an approximately optimal match. We establish the efficiency of our approaches empirically.

Mount, David M.↗

Parameter estimation for terrain modeling from gradient data

A method is developed for modeling terrain surfaces for use on an unmanned Martian roving vehicle. The modeling procedure employs a two-step process which uses gradient as well as height data in order to improve the accuracy of the model's gradient. Least square approximation is used in order to stochastically determine the parameters which describe the modeled surface. A complete error analysis of the modeling procedure is included which determines the effect of instrumental measurement errors on the model's accuracy. Computer simulation is used as a means of testing the entire modeling process which includes the acquisition of data points, the two-step modeling process and the error analysis. Finally, to illustrate the procedure, a numerical example is included.

Dangelo, K. R.↗

Statistically Optimized Inversion Algorithm for Enhanced Retrieval of Aerosol Properties from Spectral Multi-Angle Polarimetric Satellite Observations

The proposed development is an attempt to enhance aerosol retrieval by emphasizing statistical optimization in inversion of advanced satellite observations. This optimization concept improves retrieval accuracy relying on the knowledge of measurement error distribution. Efficient application of such optimization requires pronounced data redundancy (excess of the measurements number over number of unknowns) that is not common in satellite observations. The POLDER imager on board the PARASOL microsatellite registers spectral polarimetric characteristics of the reflected atmospheric radiation at up to 16 viewing directions over each observed pixel. The completeness of such observations is notably higher than for most currently operating passive satellite aerosol sensors. This provides an opportunity for profound utilization of statistical optimization principles in satellite data inversion. The proposed retrieval scheme is designed as statistically optimized multi-variable fitting of all available angular observations obtained by the POLDER sensor in the window spectral channels where absorption by gas is minimal. The total number of such observations by PARASOL always exceeds a hundred over each pixel and the statistical optimization concept promises to be efficient even if the algorithm retrieves several tens of aerosol parameters. Based on this idea, the proposed algorithm uses a large number of unknowns and is aimed at retrieval of extended set of parameters affecting measured radiation.

Dubovik, O↗

Common Mode Current Challenges and Opportunities in Electric Powertrain Testing

During the development of novel electric powertrain (EP) components key parameters may be evaluated by test before a fully integrated EMI design is implemented. However, insufficiently mitigated EMI could impact the test equipment and test measurements. This risk is particularly valid with high voltage wide bandgap switching converters which enable high efficiency but can increase the EMI source function producing high levels of common mode (CM) current. Test facility equipment may be susceptible to the CM current from these converters causing test delays or measurement errors. Characterization of the common mode EMI of a powertrain component by analysis and/or measurement and assessment of the test facility EMC design can reduce this risk to yield efficient tests and successful measurements.

electromagnetic interference↗

The Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Preliminary Error Budget and Performance Estimate

The Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) study phase has resulted in a preliminary error budget and an estimate of the instrument performance. This paper will present the line-of-sight (LOS) Velocity Measurement Error Budget, the instrument Boresight Error Budget, and the predicted signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) performance. The measurement requirements and a preliminary design for the LAWS instrument are presented in a companion paper.

Kenyon, David L.↗

Aerogel Antennas Communications Study Using Error Vector Magnitude Measurements

This presentation discusses an aerogel antennas communication study using error vector magnitude (EVM) measurements. The study was performed using 2x4 element polyimide (PI) aerogel-based phased arrays designed for operation at 5 GHz as transmit (Tx) and receive (Rx) antennas separated by a line of sight (LOS) distance of 8.5 meters. The results of the EVM measurements demonstrate that polyimide aerogel antennas work appropriately to support digital communication links with typically used modulation schemes such as QPSK and 4 DQPSK. As such, PI aerogel antennas with higher gain, larger bandwidth and lower mass than typically used microwave laminates could be suitable to enable aerospace-to- ground communication links with enough channel capacity to support voice, data and video links from CubeSats, unmanned air vehicles (UAV), and commercial aircraft.

Polyimide Aerogel↗