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At least 217 records · Page 12

Can machine learning accelerate process understanding and decision‐relevant predictions of river water quality?

Abstract The global decline of water quality in rivers and streams has resulted in a pressing need to design new watershed management strategies. Water quality can be affected by multiple stressors including population growth, land use change, global warming, and extreme events, with repercussions on human and ecosystem health. A scientific understanding of factors affecting riverine water quality and predictions at local to regional scales, and at sub‐daily to decadal timescales are needed for optimal management of watersheds and river basins. Here, we discuss how machine learning (ML) can enable development of more accurate, computationally tractable, and scalable models for analysis and predictions of river water quality. We review relevant state‐of‐the art applications of ML for water quality models and discuss opportunities to improve the use of ML with emerging computational and mathematical methods for model selection, hyperparameter optimization, incorporating process knowledge into ML models, improving explainablity, uncertainty quantification, and model‐data integration. We then present considerations for using ML to address water quality problems given their scale and complexity, available data and computational resources, and stakeholder needs. When combined with decades of process understanding, interdisciplinary advances in knowledge‐guided ML, information theory, data integration, and analytics can help address fundamental science questions and enable decision‐relevant predictions of riverine water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimal PMU design based on sampling model and sensitivity analysis

The precise measurements of the synchrophasor and frequency from phasor measurement units (PMUs) are widely used in power grid applications. With the improvement of the technique, applications always require stable dynamic performance and higher accuracy for the synchrophasor and frequency measurements, which is challenging for PMU development. To evaluate the contribution of PMU hardware to measurement accuracy, this paper proposes a general-purpose sampling model to analyze the measurement error. In the proposed sampling model, a strict mathematical derivation is derived, where its error is purely determined by the parameters of the PMU hardware. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by three methods, including mathematical analysis, computer simulation, and variance-based sensitivity analysis. Through the sensitivity analysis, this paper establishes the systematic formulation and the inclusion of synchrophasor, frequency, and ROCOF. Experimental results based on the real-world testbench involving distribution-level PMUs match the mathematical analysis conclusion, which verifies the correctness of the general-purpose sampling model. Furthermore, a strategy for the optimal PMU design is proposed, which could guide PMU design in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Explainable and trustworthy artificial intelligence for correctable modeling in chemical sciences

Data science has primarily focused on big data, but for many physics, chemistry, and engineering applications, data are often small, correlated and, thus, low dimensional, and sourced from both computations and experiments with various levels of noise. Typical statistics and machine learning methods do not work for these cases. Expert knowledge is essential, but a systematic framework for incorporating it into physics-based models under uncertainty is lacking. Here, we develop a mathematical and computational framework for probabilistic artificial intelligence (AI)–based predictive modeling combining data, expert knowledge, multiscale models, and information theory through uncertainty quantification and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). We apply PGMs to chemistry specifically and develop predictive guarantees for PGMs generally. Our proposed framework, combining AI and uncertainty quantification, provides explainable results leading to correctable and, eventually, trustworthy models. The proposed framework is demonstrated on a microkinetic model of the oxygen reduction reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stable vacua with realistic phenomenology and cosmology in heterotic M-theory satisfying Swampland conjectures

We recently described a protocol for computing the potential energy in heterotic M-theory for the dilaton, complex structure and Kähler moduli. This included the leading order non-perturbative contributions to the complex structure, gaugino condensation and worldsheet instantons assuming a hidden sector that contains an anomalous U(1) structure group embedded in E8. In this paper, we elucidate, in detail, the mathematical and computational methods required to utilize this protocol. These methods are then applied to a realistic heterotic M-theory model, the B – L MSSM, whose observable sector is consistent with all particle physics requirements. Within this context, it is shown that the dilaton and universal moduli can be completely stabilized at values compatible with every phenomenological and mathematical constraint — as well as with ΛCDM cosmology. We also show that the heterotic M-theory vacua are consistent with all well-supported Swampland conjectures based on considerations of string theory and quantum gravity, and we discuss the implications of dark energy theorems for compactified theories.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Space-Split Algorithm for Sensitivity Analysis of Discrete Chaotic Systems With Multidimensional Unstable Manifolds

Accurate approximations of the change of a system's output and its statistics with respect to the input are highly desired in computational dynamics. Ruelle's linear response theory provides breakthrough mathematical machinery for computing the linear response of chaotic dynamical systems. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for sensitivity analysis of discrete chaos with an arbitrary number of positive Lyapunov exponents. We combine the concept of perturbation space-splitting, which regularizes Ruelle's original expression, together with measure-based parameterization of the expanding subspace. We use these tools to rigorously derive trajectory-following recursive relations that converge exponentially fast, and construct a memory-efficient Monte Carlo scheme for derivatives of the output statistics. Thanks to the regularization and lack of simplifying assumptions on the system's behavior, our method is immune to the common problems of other popular methods such as the exploding tangent solutions and unphysical shadowing directions. Here, we provide a ready-to-use algorithm, analyze its complexity, and demonstrate several numerical examples of sensitivity computation using physically-inspired low-dimensional systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Latent Twins

Over the past decade, scientific machine learning has transformed the development of mathematical and computational frameworks for analyzing, modeling, and predicting complex systems. From inverse problems to numerical partial differential equations (PDEs), dynamical systems, and model reduction, these advances have pushed the boundaries of what can be simulated. Yet they have often progressed in parallel, with representation learning and algorithmic solution methods evolving largely as separate pipelines. With Latent Twins, we propose a unifying mathematical framework that creates a hidden surrogate in latent space for the underlying equations. Whereas digital twins mirror physical systems in the digital world, Latent Twins mirror mathematical systems in a learned latent space governed by operators. Through this lens, classical modeling, inversion, model reduction, and operator approximation all emerge as special cases of a single principle. We establish the fundamental approximation properties of Latent Twins for both ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and PDEs and demonstrate the framework across three representative settings: (i) canonical ODEs, capturing diverse dynamical regimes; (ii) a PDE benchmark using the shallow-water equations, contrasting Latent Twin simulations with deep operator network and forecasts with a four-dimensional variational method baseline; and (iii) a challenging real-data geopotential reanalysis dataset, reconstructing and forecasting from sparse, noisy observations. Latent Twins provide a compact, interpretable surrogate for solution operators that evaluate across arbitrary time gaps in a single-shot, while remaining compatible with scientific pipelines such as assimilation, control, and uncertainty quantification. Looking forward, this framework offers scalable, theory-grounded surrogates that bridge data-driven representation learning and classical scientific modeling across disciplines.

Latent Twins↗

Characterization and Optimization of the Fitting of Quantum Correlation Functions

This case study presents a characterization and optimization of an application code for extracting parton distribution functions from high energy electron-proton scattering data. Profiling this application code reveals that the phase-space density computation accounts for 93% of the overall execution time for a single iteration on a single core. When executing multiple iterations in parallel on a multicore system, the application spends 78% of its overall execution time idling due to load imbalance. We address these issues by first transforming the application code from Python to C++ and then tackling the application load imbalance via a hybrid scheduling strategy that combines dynamic and static scheduling. These techniques result in a 62% reduction in CPU idle time and a 2.46x speedup in overall execution time per node. In addition, the typically enabled power-management mechanisms in supercomputers (e.g., AMD Turbo Core, Intel Turbo Boost, and RAPL) can significantly impact intra-node scalability when more than 50% of the CPU cores are used. This finding underscores the importance of understanding system interactions with power management, as they can adversely impact application performance, and highlights the necessity of intra-node scaling tests to identify performance degradation that inter-node scaling tests might otherwise overlook.

Chuang, Pi-Yueh [Virginia Tech,Dept. of Computer S↗

buhito

buhito is a Python library for graph analysis and machine learning. Graphs can represent networks with objects as nodes and their relationships as edges. buhito focuses on graphlet methods that study graphs through enumerating their component subgraphs to enable interpretable and fast models of complex systems. The package provides tools for different algorithmic designs for computing, analyzing, and applying graphlets to research problems such as machine learning, data compression, and anomaly detection in graph-structured data. A central feature is performing decomposition data analysis on graphs for machine learning models. Implemented in Python and built upon open-source scientific libraries such as NetworkX, NumPy, and SciPy, buhito provides high-performance methods for researchers exploring the mathematical and computational foundations of graphlet analysis applicable to systems of different sizes.

Pimonova, Yulia↗

Neural Active Manifolds: Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction for Uncertainty Quantification

We present a new approach for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, specifically designed for computationally expensive mathematical models. We leverage autoencoders to discover a one-dimensional neural active manifold (NeurAM) capturing the model output variability, through the aid of a simultaneously learnt surrogate model with inputs on this manifold. Our method only relies on model evaluations and does not require the knowledge of gradients. The proposed dimensionality reduction framework can then be applied to assist outer loop many-query tasks in scientific computing, like sensitivity analysis and multifidelity uncertainty propagation. In particular, we prove, both theoretically under idealized conditions, and numerically in challenging test cases, how NeurAM can be used to obtain multifidelity sampling estimators with reduced variance by sampling the models on the discovered low-dimensional and shared manifold among models. Several numerical examples illustrate the main features of the proposed dimensionality reduction strategy and highlight its advantages with respect to existing approaches in the literature.

Autoencoders↗

Transforming Energy Through Computational Excellence: NREL's Computational Science Center

Computational methods underpin advancing the science and engineering of energy efficiency, sustainable transportation, renewable power technologies, and developing a knowledge base to optimize energy systems. NREL's Computational Science Center (CSC) proudly focuses on providing the service of computing, advancing the science of computing, and enabling NREL's clean energy mission.

applied mathematics↗

Predicting partner fitness based on spatial structuring in a light-driven microbial community

Microbial communities have vital roles in systems essential to human health and agriculture, such as gut and soil microbiomes, and there is growing interest in engineering designer consortia for applications in biotechnology ( e . g ., personalized probiotics, bioproduction of high-value products, biosensing). The capacity to monitor and model metabolite exchange in dynamic microbial consortia can provide foundational information important to understand the community level behaviors that emerge, a requirement for building novel consortia. Where experimental approaches for monitoring metabolic exchange are technologically challenging, computational tools can enable greater access to the fate of both chemicals and microbes within a consortium. In this study, we developed an in-silico model of a synthetic microbial consortia of sucrose-secreting Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 and Escherichia coli W. Our model was built on the NUFEB framework for Individual-based Modeling (IbM) and optimized for biological accuracy using experimental data. We showed that the relative level of sucrose secretion regulates not only the steady-state support for heterotrophic biomass, but also the temporal dynamics of consortia growth. In order to determine the importance of spatial organization within the consortium, we fit a regression model to spatial data and used it to accurately predict colony fitness. We found that some of the critical parameters for fitness prediction were inter-colony distance, initial biomass, induction level, and distance from the center of the simulation volume. We anticipate that the synergy between experimental and computational approaches will improve our ability to design consortia with novel function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Galba: genome annotation with miniprot and AUGUSTUS

The Earth Biogenome Project has rapidly increased the number of available eukaryotic genomes, but most released genomes continue to lack annotation of protein-coding genes. In addition, no transcriptome data is available for some genomes. Various gene annotation tools have been developed but each has its limitations. Here, we introduce GALBA, a fully automated pipeline that utilizes miniprot, a rapid protein-to-genome aligner, in combination with AUGUSTUS to predict genes with high accuracy. Accuracy results indicate that GALBA is particularly strong in the annotation of large vertebrate genomes. We also present use cases in insects, vertebrates, and a land plant. GALBA is fully open source and available as a docker image for easy execution with Singularity in high-performance computing environments. Our pipeline addresses the critical need for accurate gene annotation in newly sequenced genomes, and we believe that GALBA will greatly facilitate genome annotation for diverse organisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

rBahadur: efficient simulation of structured high-dimensional genotype data with applications to assortative mating

Existing methods for generating synthetic genotype data are ill-suited for replicating the effects of assortative mating (AM). We propose rb_dplr, a novel and computationally efficient algorithm for generating high-dimensional binary random variates that effectively recapitulates AM-induced genetic architectures using the Bahadur order-2 approximation of the multivariate Bernoulli distribution. The rBahadur R library is available through the Comprehensive R Archive Network at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rBahadur.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Foldy: An open-source web application for interactive protein structure analysis

Foldy is a cloud-based application that allows non-computational biologists to easily utilize advanced AI-based structural biology tools, including AlphaFold and DiffDock. With many deployment options, it can be employed by individuals, labs, universities, and companies in the cloud without requiring hardware resources, but it can also be configured to utilize locally available computers. Foldy enables scientists to predict the structure of proteins and complexes up to 6000 amino acids with AlphaFold, visualize Pfam annotations, and dock ligands with AutoDock Vina and DiffDock. In our manuscript, we detail Foldy’s interface design, deployment strategies, and optimization for various user scenarios. We demonstrate its application through case studies including rational enzyme design and analyzing proteins with domains of unknown function. Furthermore, we compare Foldy’s interface and management capabilities with other open and closed source tools in the field, illustrating its practicality in managing complex data and computation tasks. Our manuscript underlines the benefits of Foldy as a day-to-day tool for life science researchers, and shows how Foldy can make modern tools more accessible and efficient.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Future energy infrastructure, energy platform and energy storage

Today fossil energy dominates energy consumption across the world. There has been an increasing momentum to reduce fossil energy consumption and increase renewable energy utilization to more than 70%. Such high penetrations of distributed renewable resources bring large uncertainty and complexity that cannot be easily handled by the current infrastructure. For the last two decades, telecommunication industry has gone through a similar transition from centralized to distributed systems, and more recently to platform approaches, which become the corner stone of today’s vibrant platform economy. Based on telecommunication history, we believe that a platform-based approach, called the energy platform, is a viable solution for addressing the renewable energy challenges. The energy platform consists of an array of computational algorithms, sensing and control technologies for key industry, energy generators and users to jointly manage and control the complex energy infrastructure. It includes the following key components: (1) the hardware and software to generate, store, control and transmit electricity/data (the energy cloud), (2) the digital platforms and tools for key energy producers, digital, service and communication industry to share the assets, participate in and manage the complex infrastructure, and for customers to participate in energy transactions, (3) the transaction platform for new service and business models. Additionally, the energy platform requires breakthroughs in large scale energy storage and many other areas including efficient power electronics, sensors and controls, new mathematical and computational tools, and deep integration of energy technologies and information sciences to control and stabilize such complex chaotic systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Smoothing Lexis diagrams using kernel functions: A contemporary approach

Lexis diagrams are rectangular arrays of event rates indexed by age and period. Analysis of Lexis diagrams is a cornerstone of cancer surveillance research. Typically, population-based descriptive studies analyze multiple Lexis diagrams defined by sex, tumor characteristics, race/ethnicity, geographic region, etc. Inevitably the amount of information per Lexis diminishes with increasing stratification. Several methods have been proposed to smooth observed Lexis diagrams up front to clarify salient patterns and improve summary estimates of averages, gradients, and trends. In this article, we develop a novel bivariate kernel-based smoother that incorporates two key innovations. First, for any given kernel, we calculate its singular values decomposition, and select an optimal truncation point—the number of leading singular vectors to retain—based on the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion. Second, we model-average over a panel of candidate kernels with diverse shapes and bandwidths. The truncated model averaging approach is fast, automatic, has excellent performance, and provides a variance-covariance matrix that takes model selection into account. We present an in-depth case study (invasive estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer incidence among non-Hispanic white women in the United States) and simulate operating characteristics for 20 representative cancers. The truncated model averaging approach consistently outperforms any fixed kernel. Our results support the routine use of the truncated model averaging approach in descriptive studies of cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗