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At least 217 records · Page 12

Using Dome Concordia to Characterize the Long-Term Stability of VIIRS Thermal Emissive Bands

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instruments aboard the Suomi NPP and NOAA-20 spacecraft have successfully provided Earth image products since 2011 and 2017, respectively. Maintaining accurate radiometric calibration and calibration consistency between the two sensors is a necessity for the continued quality of long-term data records. In this work, the use of frequent VIIRS measurements of brightness temperature over the area surrounding Dome Concordia (Dome C), Antarctica (75.1 °S, 123.4°E) to track the long-term stability of its thermal emissive bands (TEB) is presented. The extremely dry, cold, and rarefied atmosphere of the site makes it ideal to track and detect long-term changes in the TEB responses via analysis of near-nadir and off-nadir VIIRS overpasses in reference to the surface temperature measurements provided by an automated weather station (AWS). Multi-year Dome C measurements have been used to assess the stability of the VIIRS response-versus-scan-angle (RVS) of the half-angle-mirror (HAM), derived from prelaunch characterization, and detector differences at multiple scan angles. Also, included in this work is the RVS stability assessments using the Dome C overpasses. The methodology developed via this work will also be applied to the recently launched VIIRS instrument onboard the NOAA-21 satellite (previously JPSS-2) in the future.

Amit Angal↗

Study of advanced techniques for determining the long term performance of components

The application of existing and new technology to the problem of determining the long-term performance capability of liquid rocket propulsion feed systems is discussed. The long term performance of metal to metal valve seats in a liquid propellant fuel system is stressed. The approaches taken in conducting the analysis are: (1) advancing the technology of characterizing components through the development of new or more sensitive techniques and (2) improving the understanding of the physical of degradation.

Source record↗

Short- and long-term responses of photosynthetic capacity to temperature in four boreal tree species in a free-air warming and rainfall manipulation experiment

Abstract High latitude forests cope with considerable variation in moisture and temperature at multiple temporal scales. To assess how their photosynthetic physiology responds to short- and long-term temperature variation, we measured photosynthetic capacity for four tree species growing in an open-air experiment in the boreal-temperate ecotone `Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger' (B4WarmED). The experiment factorially manipulated temperature above- and below-ground (ambient, +3.2 °C) and summer rainfall (ambient, 40% removal). We measured A/Ci curves at 18, 25 and 32 °C for individuals of two boreal (Pinus banksiana Lamb., Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and two temperate species (Pinus strobus L., Acer rubrum L.) experiencing the long-term warming and/or reduced-rainfall conditions induced by our experimental treatments. We calculated the apparent photosynthetic capacity descriptors VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci and their ratio for each measurement temperate. We hypothesized that (i) VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci would be down-regulated in plants experiencing longer term (e.g., weeks to months) warming and reduced rainfall (i.e., have lower values at a given measurement temperature), as is sometimes found in the literature, and that (ii) plants growing at warmer temperatures or from warmer ranges would show greater sensitivity (steeper slope) to short-term (minutes to hours) temperature variation. Neither hypothesis was supported as a general trend across the four species, as there was not a significant main effect (across species) of either warming or rainfall reduction on VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci. All species markedly increased VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci (and decreased their ratio) with short-term increases in temperature (i.e., contrasting values at 18, 25 and 32 °C), and those responses were independent of long-term treatments and did not differ among species. The Jmax,Ci:VCmax,Ci ratio was, however, significantly lower across species in warmed and reduced rainfall treatments. Collectively, these results suggest that boreal trees possess considerable short-term plasticity that may allow homeostasis of VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci to a longer term temperature treatment. Our results also caution against extrapolating results obtained under controlled and markedly contrasting temperature treatments to responses of photosynthetic parameters to more modest temperature changes expected in the near-term with climate warming in field conditions.

Forestry↗

Long-term socioeconomic trends and climate variability as drivers of virtual water scarcity in China

Water scarcity can have far-reaching sectoral impacts beyond its physical location through the propagation of virtual water flows. Socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes affect local and virtual water scarcity by altering availability and demand. Yet most studies of this phenomenon focus on volumetric footprints, and the few on water scarcity risk have not examined hydroclimatic variability beyond long-term trends. In this study, we ask how gross domestic product (GDP) and population changes, long-term meteorological trends, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and interannual meteorological variability affect water scarcity in China, both locally (through the local water scarcity risk index, LWSR) and remotely (through the virtual water scarcity risk index, VWSR). Counterfactual scenarios were compared in a regression-and-simulation framework, with the socioeconomic and meteorological drivers varying over 1923–2019 and the multi-regional input–output structure staying fixed at 2017. Relative to a 5 year baseline centered on 2017, GDP and population changes have induced a cumulative 17%–50% increase in LWSR and 13%–21% increase in VWSR, outweighing the effect of long-term meteorological trends. phase change in one of two examined SST patterns induce 4%–13% differences in LWSR and 1%–4% differences in VWSR. Interannual meteorological variability induces 10%–20% standard deviations in LWSR and 3%–7% in VWSR. The findings highlight the importance of using longer time series to accurately assess local and virtual water scarcity situations. Water scarcity management should prioritize socioeconomic factors when planning at century-long timescales and prioritize hydroclimatic factors at multidecadal or shorter timescales. water managers should consider interannual variabilities in LWSR and VWSR and plan for potential occurrences of extreme conditions.

climate variability↗

Matrix toughness, long-term behavior, and damage tolerance of notched graphite fiber-reinforced composite materials

The long-term behavior of notched graphite-fiber-reinforced composite laminates with brittle or tough matrix materials and different fiber architectures was investigated using damage measurements and stiffness change, residual strength, and life data. The fiber/matrix materials included T300/5208, AS4/3501-6, AS4/1808, AS4/PEEK, and C3000/PMR-15 matrices and unidirectional tape and woven cloth fiber architectures. Results of damage evaluation and of residual strength measurements during the fatigue damage development showed that the long-term behavior and damage tolerance are controlled by a number of interacting factors such as the matrix toughness, fiber architecture, loading levels, and damage types and distributions.

Bakis, C. E.↗

Long-term prediction test procedure for most ICs, based on linear response theory

Experimentally, thermal annealing is known to be a factor which enables a number of different integrated circuits (IC's) to recover their operating characteristics after suffering radiation damage in the space radiation environment; thus, decreasing and limiting long term cumulative total-dose effects. This annealing is also known to be accelerated at elevated temperatures both during and after irradiation. Linear response theory (LRT) was applied, and a linear response function (LRF) to predict the radiation/annealing response of sensitive parameters of IC's for long term (several months or years) exposure to the space radiation environment were constructed. Compressing the annealing process from several years in orbit to just a few hours or days in the laboratory is achieved by subjecting the IC to elevated temperatures or by increasing the typical spaceflight dose rate by several orders of magnitude for simultaneous radiation/annealing only. The accomplishments are as follows: (1) the test procedure to make predictions of the radiation response was developed; (2) the calculation of the shift in the threshold potential due to the charge distribution in the oxide was written; (3) electron tunneling processes from the bulk Si to the oxide region in an MOS IC were estimated; (4) in order to connect the experimental annealing data to the theoretical model, constants of the model of the basic annealing process were established; (5) experimental data obtained at elevated temperatures were analyzed; (6) time compression and reliability of predictions for the long term region were shown; (7) a method to compress test time and to make predictions of response for the nonlinear region was proposed; and (8) nonlinearity of the LRF with respect to log(t) was calculated theoretically from a model.

Litovchenko, V.↗

Long-term impact of electrification and retrofits of the U.S residential building in diverse locations

The U.S. buildings sector contributes 30% of operational carbon emissions, with residential buildings accounting for 56%. Reducing residential carbon emissions is crucial for achieving net-zero carbon goal. While many studies examine energy efficiency retrofit (EER) and electrification, few explore their long-term impacts across diverse climates and dynamic grid clean energy penetrations, as well as their economic effects on households. Here, this study proposes a method to assess how EER and electrification affect long-term decarbonization and economics across different climates, focusing on carbon emissions, energy burden (the percentage of household income spent on energy), and payback period in four locations: Tampa, San Diego, Denver, and Great Falls. The study also introduces the concept of implicit energy burden by considering investment costs. Results show that while electrification can reduce long-term emissions with increased clean energy penetration, it may not always achieve decarbonization due to mismatches between clean energy availability and demand. In cooling-dominant locations, electrification lowers energy burden and peak demand, but in heating-dominant locations, it increases energy burden to 8.24%, raises peak demand by 632.78%, and shifts it from summer to winter. After integrating investment costs, the implicit energy burden can reach 8.35% in cold climates. For already highly electrified buildings in Denver and Great Falls, the payback period of EER measures can be shortened by up to 48.98%. The study highlights a tradeoff between decarbonization and energy burden alleviation, showing that while EER measures can reduce the energy burden, they only achieve one-quarter of the carbon emission reduction of electrification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Novel and Rugged Electromagnetic Wireless System for Long-Term Subsurface CO₂ Plume Monitoring and Saturation Mapping

Novel and rugged electromagnetic wireless system for long-term subsurface CO₂ plume monitoring and saturation mapping is a Phase I SBIR project led by Cyentech Consulting LLC to develop a permanently installed, outside-casing electromagnetic monitoring system for long-term carbon storage monitoring. The project addresses a major challenge in carbon capture and storage: the need for reliable, cable-free downhole monitoring that can detect CO₂ plume movement and saturation changes without compromising well integrity through casing perforations or external umbilical cables.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Toward Long-Term Aquatic Science Products from Heritage Landsat Missions

This paper aims at generating a long-term consistent record of Landsat-derived remote sensing reflectance (Rrs) products, which are central for producing downstream aquatic science products (e.g., concentrations of total suspended solids). The products are derived from Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 observations leading to Landsat-8 era to enable retrospective analyses of inland and nearshore coastal waters. In doing so, the data processing was built into the SeaWiFS Data Analysis System (SeaDAS) followed by vicariously calibrating Landsat-7 and -5 data using reference in situ measurements and near-concurrent ocean color products, respectively. The derived Rrs products are then validated using (a) matchups using the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data measured by in situ radiometers, i.e., AERONET-OC, and (b) ocean color products at select sites in North America. Following the vicarious calibration adjustments, it is found that the overall biases in Rrs products are significantly reduced. The root-mean-square errors (RMSE), however, indicate noticeable uncertainties due to random and systematic noise. Long-term (since 1984) seasonal Rrs composites over 12 coastal and inland systems are further evaluated to explore the utility of Landsat archive processed via SeaDAS. With all the qualitative and quantitative assessments, it is concluded that with careful algorithm developments, it is possible to discern natural variability in historic water quality conditions using heritage Landsat missions. This requires the changes in Rrs exceed maximum expected uncertainties, i.e., 0.0015 [1/sr], estimated from mean RMSEs associated with the matchups and intercomparison analyses. It is also anticipated that Landsat-5 products will be less susceptible to uncertainties in turbid waters with Rrs(660) > 0.004 [1/sr], which is equivalent of ~1.2% reflectance. Overall, end-users may utilize heritage Rrs products with "fitness-for-purpose" concept in mind, i.e., products could be valuable for one application but may not be viable for another. Further research should be dedicated to enhancing atmospheric correction to account for non-negligible near-infrared reflectance in CDOM-rich and extremely turbid waters.

Pahlevan, Nima↗

Prediction of Long-Term Geochemical Change in Bentonite Based on the Interpretative THMC Model of the FEBEX In Situ Test

Since nuclear energy is crucial in the decarbonization of the energy supply, one hurdle to remove is the handling of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). Disposal of HLW in a deep geological repository has long been deemed a viable permanent option. In the design of a deep geological repository, compacted bentonite is the most commonly proposed buffer material. Predicting the long-term chemical evolution in bentonite, which is important for the safety assessment of a repository, has been challenging because of the complex coupled processes. Models for large-scale tests and predictions based on such models have been some of the best practices for such purposes. An 18-year-long in situ test with two dismantling events provided a unique set of chemical data that allowed for studying chemical changes in bentonite. In this paper, we first developed coupled thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) models to interpret the geochemical data collected in the in situ test and then extended the THMC model to 200 years to make long-term prediction of the geochemical evolution of bentonite. The interpretive coupled THMC model shows that the geochemical profiles were strongly affected by THM processes such as evaporation/condensation, porosity change caused by swelling, permeability change, and the shape of concentration profiles for major cations were largely controlled by transport processes, but concentration levels were regulated by chemical reactions, and the profiles of some species such as pH, bicarbonate, and sulfate were dominated by these reactions. The long-term THMC model showed that heating prolongs the time that bentonite becomes fully saturated in the area close to the heater/canister; however, once the bentonite becomes fully saturated, high concentrations of ions in bentonite near the heater, which was observed in the field test, will disappear; illitization continues for 50 years but will not proceed further.

Zheng, Liange↗

Detecting Inter-Annual Variations in the Phenology of Evergreen Conifers Using Long-Term MODIS Vegetation Index Time Series

Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This study investigates the potential of a Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of MODIS-based estimates of phenology in an evergreen conifer forest. Timings of the start and end of the growing season (SGS and EGS) were derived from a 13-year-long time series of PRI and NDVI based on a MAIAC (multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction) processed MODIS dataset and standard MODIS NDVI product data. The derived dates were validated with phenology estimates from ground-based flux tower measurements of ecosystem productivity. Significant correlations were found between the MAIAC time series and ground-estimated SGS (R (sup 2) equals 0.36-0.8), which is remarkable since previous studies have found it difficult to observe inter-annual phenological variations in evergreen vegetation from satellite data. The considerably noisier NDVI product could not accurately predict SGS, and EGS could not be derived successfully from any of the time series. While the strongest relationship overall was found between SGS derived from the ground data and PRI, MAIAC NDVI exhibited high correlations with SGS more consistently (R (sup 2) is greater than 0.6 in all cases). The results suggest that PRI can serve as an effective indicator of spring seasonal transitions, however, additional work is necessary to confirm the relationships observed and to further explore the usefulness of MODIS PRI for detecting phenology.

Ulsig, Laura↗

Multi-decade Measurements of the Long-Term Trends of Atmospheric Species by High-Spectral-Resolution Infrared Solar Absorption Spectroscopy

Solar absorption spectra were recorded for the first time in 5 years with the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer at the US National solar Observatory on Kitt Peak in southern Arizona, USA (31.91 N latitude, 111.61 W longitude, 2.09 km altitude). The solar absorption spectra cover 750-1300 and 1850-5000 cm(sup -1) and were recorded on 20 days during March-June 2009. The measurements mark the continuation of a long-term record of atmospheric chemical composition measurements that have been used to quantify seasonal cycles and long-term trends of both tropospheric and stratospheric species from observations that began i 1977. Fits to the measured spectra have been performed, and they indicate the spectra obtained since return to operational status are nearly free of channeling and the instrument line shape function is well reproduced taking into account the measurement parameters. We report updated time series measurements of total columns for six atmospheric species and their analysis for seasonal cycles and long-term trends. An sn example, the time series fit shows a decrease in the annual increase rate i Montreal-Protocol-regulated chlorofluorocarbon CCL2F2 from 1.51 plus or minus 0.38% yr(sup -1) at the beginning of the time span to -1.54 plus or minus 1.28 yr(sup -1) at the end of the time span, 1 sigma, and hence provides evidence for the impact of those regulations on the trend.

Rinsland, Curtis P.↗

Long-term remote monitoring of salt marsh biomass

Methods developed for monitoring salt-marsh biomass remotedly are considered in the framework of NASA's Biospheric Research Program. Satellite-derived estimates of the aboveground biomass is considered, and it is noted that a long-term program for long-term remote monitoring is only practical if the relationship between biomass and spectral data remains essentially constant from year to year. Emphasis is placed on ground-based sampling, satellite measurements of mean marsh live aboveground biomass, the spatial distribution of biomass within the marsh, and changes in marsh hydrography as seen from a satellite. Linking aboveground and belowground biomass is discussed, as well as the problem with obtaining cloud-free images and measuring dead biomass.

Gross, M. F.↗

Long‐term growth and persistence of granitic inselbergs in a semi‐arid cratonic landscape

Granitic inselbergs are enduring landforms that punctuate planation surfaces in tectonically stable settings, yet the mechanisms and timescales of their persistence remain debated. Here, in this study, we present a multinuclide cosmogenic dataset ( 10 Be, 26 Al and 21 Ne) from bedrock, fluvial sediments and planation surfaces in the semi-arid Central Ceará Domain, north-eastern Brazil, to quantify denudation rates and reconstruct the long-term dynamics of residual relief formation. This triple-nuclide approach enables independent validation of denudation contrasts and long-term exposure histories, providing quantitative constraints on inselberg evolution that a single-nuclide approach could not resolve. Bedrock denudation rates (1–4 m Myr −1 ) are systematically lower than basin-wide rates (8–14 m Myr −1 ), revealing a regional pattern of vertical differential denudation. When combined with summit elevations and surface exposure ages of up to 5 Myr, these contrasts suggest that cumulative relief growth has been operating over timescales of tens of millions of years (1–57 Myr). Morphological and structural observations further indicate localized mass wasting and heterogeneous erosion styles, modulated by rock fabric and joint density. Cosmogenic nuclide inventories in detrital sediments reveal partial reworking from older sediment stocks, including surface pebbles with exposure ages up to 5 Myr, which record multistage of burial and re-exposure histories and reflect episodic remobilization in low-connectivity, semi-arid catchments. Rather than static relicts of ancient surfaces, inselbergs in this cratonic setting emerge as dynamic landforms actively sustained by slow but persistent differential denudation. These results provide new constraints on long-term cratonic landscape evolution and underscore the interplay between lithological resistance, structural inheritance and sediment transfer processes in sustaining topographic relief. They also call for a critical reassessment of classical inselberg models, suggesting that hybrid mechanisms, rather than single-process paradigms, more accurately capture the complexity of residual landform development in cratonic interiors.

Cosmogenic nuclides↗

The Long-Term Evolution of the Atmosphere of Venus: Processes and Feedback Mechanisms

This work reviews the long-term evolution of the atmosphere of Venus, and modulation of its composition by interior/exterior cycling. The formation and evolution of Venus’s atmosphere, leading to contemporary surface conditions, remain hotly debated topics, and involve questions that tie into many disciplines. We explore these various inter-related mechanisms which shaped the evolution of the atmosphere, starting with the volatile sources and sinks. Going from the deep interior to the top of the atmosphere, we describe volcanic out-gassing, surface-atmosphere interactions, and atmosphere escape. Furthermore, we address more complex aspects of the history of Venus, including the role of Late Accretion impacts, how magnetic field generation is tied into long-term evolution, and the implications of geochemical and geodynamical feedback cycles for atmospheric evolution. We highlight plausible end-member evolutionary pathways that Venus could have followed, from accretion to its present-day state, based on modeling and observations. In a first scenario, the planet was desiccated by atmospheric escape during the magma ocean phase. In a second scenario, Venus could have harbored surface liquid water for long periods of time, until its temperate climate was destabilized and it entered a runaway greenhouse phase. In a third scenario, Venus’s inefficient outgassing could have kept water inside the planet, where hy- drogen was trapped in the core and the mantle was oxidized. We discuss existing evidence and future observations/missions required to refine our understanding of the planet’s history and of the complex feedback cycles between the interior, surface, and atmosphere that have been operating in the past, present or future of Venus.

Venus↗

Long term cryogenic storage facility systems study

The Long Term Cryogenic Storage Facility Systems Study (LTCSFSS) is a Phase A study of a large capacity propellant depot for the space based, cryogenic orbital transfer vehicle. The study is being performed for Marshall Space Flight Center by General Dynamics Space Systems Division and has five principal objectives: (1) Definition of preliminary concept designs for four storage facility concepts; (2) Selection of preferred concepts through the application of trade studies to candidate propellant management system components; (3) Preparation of a conceptual design for an orbital storage facility; (4) Development of supporting research and technology requirements; and (5) Development of a test program to demonstrate facility performance. The initial study has been completed, and continuation activities are just getting under way to provide greater detail in key areas and accommodate changes in study guidelines and assumptions.

Schuster, John R.↗