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NASA NTRS1993

Temporal and spatial mapping of surface albedo and atmospheric dust opacity on Mars

The Mariner 9 and Viking provided abundant evidence that eolian processes are active over much of the surface of Mars. Past studies have demonstrated that variations in regional albedo and wind-streak patterns are indicative of sediment transport through a region, while thermal inertia data (derived from the Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) dataset) are indicative of the degree of surface mantling by dust deposits. The visual and thermal data are therefore diagnostic of whether net erosion or deposition of dust-storm fallout is taking place currently and whether such processes have been active in a region over the long term. These previous investigations, however, have not attempted to correct for the effects of atmospheric dust loading on observations of the martian surface, so quantitative studies of current sediment transport rates have included large errors due to uncertainty in the magnitude of this 'atmospheric component' of the observations. We have developed a radiative transfer model that allows the atmospheric dust opacity to be determined from IRTM thermal observations. Corrections for the effects of atmospheric dust loading on observations of surface albedo can also be modeled. This approach to determining 'dust-corrected surface albedo' incorporates the atmospheric dust opacity, the single-scattering albedo and particle phase function of atmospheric dust, and the bidirectional reflectance of the surface, and it accounts for variable lighting and viewing geometry.

Lee, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Quantifying Uncertainties in Nighttime Light Retrievals From Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS Day/Night Band Data

Satellite observations of nighttime lights (NTL) from Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS Day/Night Band data have been widely used to estimate human activities. Long-term changes such as urban development and abrupt short-term changes such as power outages have been monitored from temporal NTL acquired by satellites. While high temporal NTL variation has been found across NTL data of varying temporal scale (e.g., daily, monthly, and annual composites), the sources of measurement error and uncertainty are poorly understood. This paper quantifies the sources of VIIRS-derived NTL uncertainty due to view-illumination geometry, surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF)/albedo, and the effects of snow cover, lunar irradiance, aerosol loading, cloud mask, vegetation, geometry, and ephemeral artifacts (e.g., the Aurora Borealis). Based on this current assessment of NASA Black Marble retrievals (VNP46, Collection V001), we found that angular and atmospheric effects dominate retrieval uncertainty. Errors introduced by upstream data inputs (e.g., a coarser nighttime snow cover flag and misclassification errors in the existing VIIRS nighttime cloud mask) were also found to impact retrieval quality. Despite these challenges, a consistent daily NTL time series record can be routinely generated from top-of-atmosphere VNP46 radiances. Key recommendations include: (1) the use of lunar-BRDF adjusted and atmospherically corrected NTL (i.e., as identified as high-quality retrievals in the VNP46 QA fields), (2) development and improvement to the VIIRS snow cover and cloud masks algorithms to accurately reflect NTL retrieval conditions, (3) characterizing seasonal variations in NTL due to vegetation and snow, (4) reducing geometric effects due to the spatial mismatch of gridded pixel and observation footprint, (5) employing angularly-consistent NTL observations from multiple VIIRS instruments (i.e., Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20) to reduce pixel-based uncertainties and address persistent data gaps, and (6) being mindful of surface-reflected radiance from aurora events at mid-to-high latitudes.

Zhuosen Wang↗

NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Simulation of Combined Thermo-Mechanical Cyclic Fatigue in Composites

A methodology to compute probabilistically-combined thermo-mechanical fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and is demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long-term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress-dependent multifactor-interaction relationship developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability-integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability-based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/-45/90)s graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical-cyclic loads and low thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical-cyclic loads and high thermal-cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Simulation of Combined Thermo-Mechanical Cyclic Fatigue in Composites

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Using probabilistic analysis to assess the reliability of predicted SRB aft-skirt stresses

Probabilistic failure analysis is a tool to predict the reliability of a part or system. Probabalistic techniques were used to predict critical stresses which occur in the solid rocket booster aft-skirt during main engine buildup, immediately prior to lift-off. More than any other hold down post (HDP) load component, the Z loads are sensitive to variations in strains and calibration constants. Also, predicted aft-skirt stresses are strongly affected by HDP load variations. Therefore, the instrumented HDP are not effective load transducers for Z loads, and, when used with aft skirt stress indicator equations, yield estimates with large uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation proved to be a straight forward way of studying the overlapping effects of multiple parameters on predicted equipment performance. An advantage of probabilistic analysis is the degree of uncertainty of each parameter as stated explicitly by its probability distribution. It was noted, however, that the choice of parameter distribution had a large effect on the simulation results. Many times these distributions must be assumed. The engineer who is designing the part should be responsible for the choice of parameter distribution.

Richardson, James A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic assessment of composite structures

A methodology and attendant computer code were developed and are used to computationally simulate the uncertain behavior of composite structures. The uncertain behavior includes buckling loads, stress concentration factors, displacements, stress/strain, etc., which are the consequences of the inherent uncertainties (scatter) in the primitive (independent random) variables (constituent, ply, laminate, and structural) that describe the composite structures. The computer code is IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). IPACS can simulate both composite mechanics and composite structural behavior. Application to probabilistic composite mechanics is illustrated by its use to evaluate the uncertainties in the major Poisson's ratio and in laminate stiffness and strength. IPACS' application to probabilistic structural analysis is illustrated by its used to evaluate the uncertainties in the buckling of a composite plate, the stress concentration factor in a composite panel, and the vertical displacement and ply stress in a composite aircraft wing segment. IPACS' application to probabilistic design is illustrated by its use to assess the thin composite shell (pipe).

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures): Code development and applications

A methodology and attendant computer code have been developed and are described to computationally simulate the uncertain behavior of composite structures. The uncertain behavior includes buckling loads, stress concentration factors, displacements, stress/strain etc., which are the consequences of the inherent uncertainties (scatter) in the primitive (independent random) variables (constituent, ply, laminate and structural) that describe the composite structures. The computer code, IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures), can handle both composite mechanics and composite structures. Application to probabilistic composite mechanics is illustrated by its uses to evaluate the uncertainties in the major Poisson's ratio and in laminate stiffness and strength. IPACS application to probabilistic structural analysis is illustrated by its use to evaluate the uncertainties in the buckling of a composite plate, in the stress concentration factor in a composite panel and in the vertical displacement and ply stress in a composite aircraft wing segment.

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1996

The Study of the Relationship between Probabilistic Design and Axiomatic Design Methodology

The structural design, or the design of machine elements, has been traditionally based on deterministic design methodology. The deterministic method considers all design parameters to be known with certainty. This methodology is, therefore, inadequate to design complex structures that are subjected to a variety of complex, severe loading conditions. A nonlinear behavior that is dependent on stress, stress rate, temperature, number of load cycles, and time is observed on all components subjected to complex conditions. These complex conditions introduce uncertainties; hence, the actual factor of safety margin remains unknown. In the deterministic methodology, the contingency of failure is discounted; hence, there is a use of a high factor of safety. It may be most useful in situations where the design structures are simple. The probabilistic method is concerned with the probability of non-failure performance of structures or machine elements. It is much more useful in situations where the design is characterized by complex geometry, possibility of catastrophic failure, sensitive loads and material properties. Also included: Comparative Study of the use of AGMA Geometry Factors and Probabilistic Design Methodology in the Design of Compact Spur Gear Set.

Onwubiko, Chin-Yere↗

NASA NTRS2005

Improvement of Raman lidar algorithm for quantifying aerosol extinction

Aerosols are particles of different composition and origin and influence the formation of clouds which are important in atmospheric radiative balance. At the present there is high uncertainty on the effect of aerosols on climate and this is mainly due to the fact that aerosol presence in the atmosphere can be highly variable in space and time. Monitoring of the aerosols in the atmosphere is necessary to better understanding many of these uncertainties. A lidar (an instrument that uses light to detect the extent of atmospheric aerosol loading) can be particularly useful to monitor aerosols in the atmosphere since it is capable to record the scattered intensity as a function of altitude from molecules and aerosols. One lidar method (the Raman lidar) makes use of the different wavelength changes that occur when light interacts with the varying chemistry and structure of atmospheric aerosols. One quantity that is indicative of aerosol presence is the aerosol extinction which quantifies the amount of attenuation (removal of photons), due to scattering, that light undergoes when propagating in the atmosphere. It can be directly measured with a Raman lidar using the wavelength dependence of the received signal. In order to calculate aerosol extinction from Raman scattering data it is necessary to evaluate the rate of change (derivative) of a Raman signal with respect to altitude. Since derivatives are defined for continuous functions, they cannot be performed directly on the experimental data which are not continuous. The most popular technique to find the functional behavior of experimental data is the least-square fit. This procedure allows finding a polynomial function which better approximate the experimental data. The typical approach in the lidar community is to make an a priori assumption about the functional behavior of the data in order to calculate the derivative. It has been shown in previous work that the use of the chi-square technique to determine the most likely functional behavior of the data prior to actually calculating the derivative eliminates the need for making a priori assumptions. We note that the a priori choice of a model itself can lead to larger uncertainties as compared to the method that is validated here. In this manuscript, the chi-square technique that determines the most likely functional behavior is validated through numerical simulation and by application to a large body of Raman lidar measurements. In general, we show that the chi-square approach to evaluate aerosol extinction yields lower extinction uncertainty than the traditional technique. We also use the technique to study the feasibility of developing a general characterization of the extinction uncertainty that could permit the uncertainty in Raman lidar aerosol extinction measurements to be estimated accurately without the use of the chi-square technique.

Russo, Felicita↗

NASA NTRS2000

Effect of Discontinuities and Uncertainties on the Response and Failure of Composite Structures

The overall goal of this research was to assess the effect of discontinuities and uncertainties on the nonlinear response and failure of composite structures subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads. The four key elements of the study were: (1) development of simple and efficient procedures for the accurate determination of transverse shear and transverse normal stresses in structural sandwiches as well as in unstiffened and stiffened composite panels and shells; (2) study the effects of transverse stresses on the response, damage initiation and propagation in composite and sandwich structures; (3) use of hierarchical sensitivity coefficients to identify the major parameters that affect the response and damage in each of the different levels in the hierarchy (micro-mechanical, layer, panel, subcomponent and component levels); and (4) application of fuzzy set techniques to identify the range and variation of possible responses. The computational models developed were used in conjunction with experiments, to understand the physical phenomena associated with the nonlinear response and failure of composite and sandwich structures. A toolkit was developed for use in conjunction with deterministic analysis programs to help the designer in assessing the effect of uncertainties in the different computational model parameters on the variability of the response quantities.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Nonlinear and Failure Analysis of Composite Structures

The overall goal of this research is to assess the effect of discontinuities and uncertainties on the nonlinear response and failure of stiffened composite panels subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads. The key elements of the study are: (a) study of the effects of stiffener geometry and of transverse stresses on the response, damage initiation and propagation in stiffened composite panels; (b) use of hierarchical sensitivity coefficients to identify the major parameters that affect the response and damage in each of the different levels in the hierarchy (micromechanical, layer, panel, subcomponent and component levels); and, (c) application of fuzzy set techniques to identify the range and variation of possible responses. The computational models developed are used in conjunction with experiments to understand the physical phenomena associated with the nonlinear response and failure of stiffened composite panels. A toolkit is developed for use in conjunction with deterministic analysis programs to help the designer in assessing the effect of uncertainties in the different computational model parameters on the variability of the response quantities.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic structural analysis methods of hot engine structures

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot engine structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. Recent activities have focused on extending the methods to include the combined uncertainties in several factors on structural response. This paper briefly describes recent progress on composite load spectra models, probabilistic finite element structural analysis, and probabilistic strength degradation modeling. Progress is described in terms of fundamental concepts, computer code development, and representative numerical results.

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Calibration of Hurricane Imaging Radiometer C-Band Receivers

The laboratory calibration of airborne Hurricane Imaging Radiometer's C-Band multi-frequency receivers is described here. The method used to obtain the values of receiver frontend loss, internal cold load brightness temperature and injected noise diode temperature is presented along with the expected RMS uncertainty in the final calibration.

HURRICANE IMAGING RADIOMETER↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PMSM Parameter Estimation using a Linear Unknown Input Interval Observer

In this paper, the problem of permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) speed and unknown load torque estimation is addressed. For this purpose, a interval unknown input observer (UIO) for linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is used. First, the PMSM model is linearized in order to make it in a suitable form for the linear interval UIO. Then, the interval UIO is applied to allow the joint estimation of the motor speed and the unknown load torque disturbance. The main advantages of this approach is that it not only allows the joint state and unknown input estimation, but also to take the different uncertainty sources into account. Indeed, taking model and measurement uncertainty into account is crucial. Assuming that the measurement noise and disturbances are bounded, lower and upper bounds are first computed for the unmeasured state (motor speed) and then for the unknown input (load torque). The proposed approach and its limitations are demonstrated with the nonlinear PMSM model derived from its equivalent electrical circuit.

Elinirina I Robinson↗

NASA NTRS1975

Experimental transient and permanent deformation studies of steel-sphere-impacted or impulsively-loaded aluminum beams with clamped ends

The sheet explosive loading technique (SELT) was employed to obtain elastic-plastic, large-deflection transient and/or permanent strain data on simple well-defined structural specimens and materials: initially-flat 6061-T651 aluminum beams with both ends ideally clamped via integral construction. The SELT loading technique was chosen since it is both convenient and provides forcing function information of small uncertainty. These data will be useful for evaluating pertinent structural response prediction methods. A second objective was to obtain high-quality transient-strain data for a well-defined structural/material model subjected to impact by a rigid body of known mass, impact velocity, and geometry; large-deflection, elastic-plastic transient response conditions are of primary interest. The beam with both ends clamped and a steel sphere as the impacting body were chosen. The steel sphere was launched vertically by explosive propulsion to achieve various desired impact velocities. The sphere/beam impact tests resulted in producing a wide range of structural responses and permanent deformations, including rupture of the beam from excessive structural response in two cases. The transient and permanent strain data as well as the permanent deflection data obtained are of high quality and should be useful for checking and evaluating methods for predicting the responses of simple 2-d structures to fragment (sphere) impact. Transient strain data very close to the point of impact were not obtained over as long a time as desirable because the gage(s) in that region became detached during the transient response.

Witmer, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Experimental transient and permanent deformation studies of steel-sphere-impacted or explosively-impulsed aluminum panels

The sheet explosive loading technique (SELT) was employed to obtain elastic-plastic, large deflection 3-d transient and/or permanent strain data on simple well defined structural specimens and materials: initially-flat 6061-T651 aluminum panels with all four sides ideally clamped via integral construction. The SELT loading technique was chosen since it is both convenient and provides "forcing function information" of small uncertainty. These data will be useful for evaluating pertinent 3-d structural response prediction methods.

Witmer, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Comparison of magnetosonic wave and water group ion energy densities at Comet Giacobini-Zinner

Measurements of the Comet Giacobini-Zinner (GZ) are presented to determine to what extent wave-particle scattering redistributed the initial pick-up energy of the ion population. Also examined is the difference between the ion thermal energy and the energy in the magnetic fields of the waves. In spite of uncertainty of about a factor of 2 noted in the pick-up and mass-loaded regions, it is shown that less than approximately 50 percent of the pick-up energy is converted into wave magnetic energy in the inbound pick-up region.

Staines, K.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution Overview

TEMPO is now well into its implementation phase, having passed both its Key Decision Point C and the Critical Design Review (CDR) for the instrument. The CDR for the ground systems will occur in March 2016 and the CDR for the Mission component at a later date, after the host spacecraft has been selected. TEMPO is on schedule to measure atmospheric pollution for greater North America from space using ultraviolet and visible spectroscopy. TEMPO measures from Mexico City to the Canadian oil sands, and from the Atlantic to the Pacific, hourly and at high spatial resolution. TEMPO provides a tropospheric measurement suite that includes the key elements of tropospheric air pollution chemistry. Measurements are from geostationary (GEO) orbit, to capture the inherent high variability in the diurnal cycle of emissions and chemistry. The small product spatial footprint resolves pollution sources at sub-urban scale. Together, this temporal and spatial resolution improves emission inventories, monitors population exposure, and enables effective emission-control strategies. TEMPO takes advantage of a GEO host spacecraft to provide a modest cost mission that measures the spectra required to retrieve O3, NO2, SO2, H2CO, C2H2O2, H2O, aerosols, cloud parameters, and UVB radiation. TEMPO thus measures the major elements, directly or by proxy, in the tropospheric O3 chemistry cycle. Multi-spectral observations provide sensitivity to O3 in the lowermost troposphere, substantially reducing uncertainty in air quality predictions by 50 percent. TEMPO quantifies and tracks the evolution of aerosol loading. It provides near-real-time air quality products that will be made widely, publicly available. TEMPO provides much of the atmospheric measurement capability recommended for GEO-CAPE in the 2007 National Research Council Decadal Survey, Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond. Instruments from Europe (Sentinel 4) and Asia (GEMS) will form parts of a global GEO constellation for pollution monitoring later this decade, with a major focus on intercontinental pollution transport. TEMPO will launch at a prime time to be a component of this constellation.

Chance, Kelly↗