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At least 217 records · Page 12

A Greening Future Elevates Flash Drought Risk in Northern Mid‐to‐High Latitudes

Flash droughts have become a growing concern, as they can emerge rapidly and increase the risk of crop failure. Although past studies have investigated the meteorological drivers and future changes of flash drought, why flash drought is more frequent over humid and vegetated regions remains underexplored. This study delves further into the mechanism by which vegetation regulates flash drought and its future change using observations from multiple data sets and large ensemble simulations from three Earth system models. On an interannual timescale, both observations and simulations show robust increases in flash drought frequency and a higher flash-to-sub-seasonal drought ratio during spring or antecedent conditions with dense vegetation, supporting the important role of vegetation in flash drought occurrence, especially in the northern mid-to-high latitudes. In the latter regions, the large ensemble simulations show robust increases in flash drought (e.g., 67% and 46% increases in Eastern U.S. and North Asia in 2050–2100 relative to 1950–2000 under the high emission scenario), where the growing season is lengthening. Although greening might suggest reduced drought stress, it drives precipitation-soil moisture-evapotranspiration decoupling by increasing evapotranspiration partitioning to transpiration. As transpiration can access deep soil water through the plant root system, its increased portion can weaken the constraints of concurrent precipitation on evapotranspiration, thus accelerating soil moisture depletion under high evaporative demand, driving a slow-to-rapid drought transition. How vegetation regulates flash drought by regulating surface moisture budget is supported by observations and simulations. Although warming supports early planting, agriculture may increasingly be threatened by surging flash drought risk.

Drought↗

A high fidelity video delivery system for real-time flight simulation research

The Flight Systems and Simulation Research Laboratory (Simlab) at the NASA Ames Research Center, utilizes an extensive network of video image generation, delivery, processing, and display systems coupled with a large amplitude Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) to provide a high fidelity visual environment for flight simulation research. This paper will explore the capabilities of the current Simlab video distribution system architecture with a view toward technical solutions implemented to resolve a variety of video interface, switching, and distribution issues common to many simulation facilities. Technical discussions include a modular approach to a video switching and distribution system capable of supporting both coax and fiber optic video signal transmission, video scan conversion and processing techniques for lab observation and recording, adaptation of image generation and display system video interfaces to industry standards, an all raster solution for 'glass cockpit' configurations encompassing Head up, Head-down, and Out-the-Window display systems.

Wilkins, Daniel A.↗

Liquid to crystal Si growth simulation using machine learning force field

Machine learning force field (ML-FF) has emerged as a potential promising approach to simulate various material phenomena for large systems with ab initio accuracy. However, most ML-FFs have been used to study the phenomena relatively close to the equilibrium ground states. In this work, we have studied a far from equilibrium system of liquid to crystal Si growth using ML-FF. Here, we found that our ML-FF based on ab initio decomposed atomic energy can reproduce all the aspects of ab initio simulated growth, from local energy fluctuations to transition temperatures, to diffusion constant, and growth rates. We have also compared the growth simulation with the Stillinger-Weber classical force field and found significant differences. A procedure is also provided to correct a systematic fitting bias in the ML-FF training process, which exists in all training models, otherwise critical results like transition temperature will be wrong.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Improved Axisymmetric and High Temperature Material Structural Modeling in MOOSE and NEML

This report describes improvements made to the solid mechanics formulation in the MOOSE open source finite element simulation environment and the open source Nuclear Engineering Material model Library (NEML) for mechanical constitutive models. The focus of these improvements is to improve the usability and performance of simulations involving one or both pieces of software. Specifically, this work completes a new system for solid mechanics simulations in the MOOSE ecosystem providing exact linearizations and optimal (quadratic) convergence, for a variety of coordinate systems and material types, including large deformation simulations. This work then provides users a framework to build highly efficient mechanical simulations of structures or materials or to couple in additional MOOSE physics modules to build complex, scalable multiphysics simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Synthetic residential load models for smart city energy management simulations

The ability to control tens of thousands of residential electricity customers in a coordinated manner has the potential to enact system-wide electric load changes, such as reduce congestion and peak demand, among other benefits. To quantify the potential benefits of demand-side management and other power system simulation studies (e.g. home energy management, large-scale residential demand response), synthetic load datasets that accurately characterize the system load are required. This study designs a combined top-down and bottom-up approach for modelling individual residential customers and their individual electric assets, each possessing their own characteristics, using time-varying queueing models. The aggregation of all customer loads created by the queueing models represents a known city-sized load curve to be used in simulation studies. The three presented residential queueing load models use only publicly available data. An open-source Python tool to allow researchers to generate residential load data for their studies is also provided. The simulation results presented consider the ComEd region (utility company from Chicago, IL) and demonstrate the characteristics of the three proposed residential queueing load models, the impact of the choice of model parameters, and scalability performance of the Python tool.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Enabling accurate chemical modeling of shocked energetic materials using a machine learning interatomic potential

Understanding the complex chemistry of organic materials under dynamic compression is important for many applications, but it is challenging due to the large number of reactions occurring at various time scales. Here, in this study, we develop a machine learning potential based on Chebyshev polynomials to study the insensitive energetic material 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) under detonation. We discuss a strategy for constructing diverse training data needed to capture the complex chemistry of TATB. Our potential demonstrates strong transferability across a wide range of thermodynamic conditions and other explosives, enabling accurate and reliable chemical modeling of organic materials under extreme conditions. The efficiency of our approach allows for simulations over several nanoseconds and for large system sizes, providing detailed insights into the chemistry of shocked TATB. The model accurately reproduces experimental Hugoniot equation of state data, and our simulations reveal the rapid formation of nitrogen-rich carbon clusters following shock. The methods and datasets developed here offer a robust framework for accurate chemical modeling of other shocked organic energetic materials.

Chemistry↗

The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach

Abstract This article explores the application of thermodynamic perturbations to a historical midlatitude, wintertime, rain-on-snow flood event to evaluate how similar events may evolve under different climate forcings. In particular, we generate a hindcast of the 1996 Mid-Atlantic flood using an ensemble of 14-km variable-resolution simulations completed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s global Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We show that the event is skillfully reproduced over the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) by E3SM when benchmarked against in situ observational data and high-resolution reanalyses. In addition, we perform five counterfactual experiments to simulate the flood under preindustrial conditions and four different levels of warming as projected by the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find a nonlinear response in simulated surface runoff and streamflow as a function of atmospheric warming. This is attributed to changing contributions of liquid water input from a shallower initial snowpack (decreased snowmelt), increased surface temperatures and rainfall rates, and increased soil water storage. Flooding associated with this event peaks from around +1 to +2 K of global average surface warming and decreases with additional warming beyond this. There are noticeable timing shifts in peak runoff and streamflow associated with changes in the flashiness of the event. This work highlights the utility of using storyline approaches for communicating climate risk and demonstrates the potential nonlinearities associated with hydrologic extremes in areas that experience ephemeral snowpack, such as the SRB.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

High-Fidelity Full System Simulations

High-fidelity full system simulations have the potential for revolutionizing the way complex systems, such as propulsion systems for aerospace vehicles, are designed, developed, manufactured, and operated. Significant time and cost savings will result from simulations that will resolve deleterious component interactions early in the design process. In addition, innovative new system configurations will result from the use of new tools that enable designers to challenge traditional rules and practices. The major challenges to developing and implementing high-fidelity systems simulations are in reducing the time and effort required to build, execute, and analyze data for the high complex simulations. In addition, large scale testing with unique instrumentation is required to validate the simulations. The solution to these problems reside in the application of advanced information technologies to assist the user to effectively manage, process, and synthesize the vast amount of data. The following presentation describes in more detail the benefits of high-fidelity full system simulations, the challenges to developing and implementing large scale simulations, and one approach that is being followed by the NASA Glenn Research Center to overcome these challenges. In addition, topics for discussion by the panel and audience are suggested.

Lytle, John K.↗

Extending GPU-accelerated Gaussian integrals in the TeraChem software package to f type orbitals: Implementation and applications

Here, the increasing availability of graphics processing units (GPUs) for scientific computing has prompted interest in accelerating quantum chemical calculations through their use. However, the complexity of integral kernels for high angular momentum basis functions often limits the utility of GPU implementations with large basis sets or for metal containing systems. In this work, we report the implementation of f function support in the GPU-accelerated TeraChem software package through the development of efficient kernels for the evaluation of Hamiltonian integrals. The high efficiency of the resulting code is demonstrated through density functional theory (DFT) calculations on increasingly large organic molecules and transition metal complexes, as well as coupled cluster singles and doubles calculations on water clusters. Preliminary investigations into Ni(I) catalysis with DFT and the photochemistry of MnH(CH 3 ) with complete active space self-consistent field are also carried out. Overall, our GPU-accelerated software appears to be well-suited for fast simulation of large transition metal containing systems, as well as organic molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Architecture for Co-Simulation of Transportation and Distribution Systems with Electric Vehicle Charging at Scale in the San Francisco Bay Area

This work describes the Grid-Enhanced, Mobility-Integrated Network Infrastructures for Extreme Fast Charging (GEMINI) architecture for the co-simulation of distribution and transportation systems to evaluate EV charging impacts on electric distribution systems of a large metropolitan area and the surrounding rural regions with high fidelity. The current co-simulation is applied to Oakland and Alameda, California, and in future work will be extended to the full San Francisco Bay Area. It uses the HELICS co-simulation framework to enable parallel instances of vetted grid and transportation software programs to interact at every model timestep, allowing high-fidelity simulations at a large scale. This enables not only the impacts of electrified transportation systems across a larger interconnected collection of distribution feeders to be evaluated, but also the feedbacks between the two systems, such as through control systems, to be captured and compared. The findings are that with moderate passenger EV adoption rates, inverter controls combined with some distribution system hardware upgrades can maintain grid voltages within ANSI C.84 range A limits of 0.95 to 1.05 p.u. without smart charging. However, EV charging control may be required for higher levels of charging or to reduce grid upgrades, and this will be explored in future work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES): Workshop Report

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is used as a tool to understand physical processes such as turbulence, aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, the interactions among all these, and their interactions with the underlying surface. Over the next 10 years, LES will drive fundamental progress in open scientific questions in these areas as LES is increasingly used to gain understanding of complex interacting physical processes involving atmospheric turbulence. This growth will be driven both by scientific demand and the expansion of computational resources needed to conduct LES, and the form that the growth takes will largely be determined by how computational resources are leveraged for scientific gain. In particular, we suggest that computational resources are likely to be leveraged in two separate but not necessarily distinct ways. On one hand, growth in computational resources will allow LES to be made more routine, that is, performed more frequently, while on the other hand, the computational expense (measured in total floating point operations) afforded to individual LES will expand dramatically, allowing simulations to increase in both domain size and resolution as well as physical detail. Current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) projects such as LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation Activity (LASSO) are leading the way in conducting routine LES, building large, public databases that are accessible for data science, sensitivity studies, and training for machine learning. LES will also become more routine as it becomes more accessible for individual researchers to address their scientific questions of interest. Scientific questions addressed by LES over the next 10 years are likely to include cloud organization and aggregation; aerosol cloud interactions and atmospheric chemistry (including geo-engineering); urban-scale LES; atmospheric extreme events, ranging from small-scale severe weather to wildfires; and ocean-wave-atmosphere interactions. Further LES-related research will likely grow significantly in areas related to societal impact studies of air quality and extreme weather events, applications to renewable energy forecasting and resource assessment, and aid in decision-making processes. The growth in the use of LES in atmospheric science research will drive the need for better physical process representations (e.g., cloud aerosol microphysics, radiation, and atmospheric chemistry) at the scales resolved by LES. To date, many of the process representations used by LES have been taken directly from coarser-resolution models. Promising methods for LES process representations include superdroplet and quadrature methods for microphysics, 3D approaches for radiation, and better representation of chemistry and aerosol processes. At LES resolution, land-atmosphere interactions for complex terrains, land cover/types, biogeochemistry, and plant canopy models are needed as an improvement beyond traditional and widely used Monin-Obuhkov similarity theory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES) (Workshop Report)

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is used as a tool to understand physical processes such as turbulence, aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, the interactions among all these, and their interactions with the underlying surface. Over the next 10 years, LES will drive fundamental progress in open scientific questions in these areas as LES is increasingly used to gain understanding of complex interacting physical processes involving atmospheric turbulence. This growth will be driven both by scientific demand and the expansion of computational resources needed to conduct LES, and the form that the growth takes will largely be determined by how computational resources are leveraged for scientific gain. In particular, we suggest that computational resources are likely to be leveraged in two separate but not necessarily distinct ways. On one hand, growth in computational resources will allow LES to be made more routine, that is, performed more frequently, while on the other hand, the computational expense (measured in total floating point operations) afforded to individual LES will expand dramatically, allowing simulations to increase in both domain size and resolution as well as physical detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES) (Workshop Report)

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is used as a tool to understand physical processes such as turbulence, aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, the interactions among all these, and their interactions with the underlying surface. Over the next 10 years, LES will drive fundamental progress in open scientific questions in these areas as LES is increasingly used to gain understanding of complex interacting physical processes involving atmospheric turbulence. This growth will be driven both by scientific demand and the expansion of computational resources needed to conduct LES, and the form that the growth takes will largely be determined by how computational resources are leveraged for scientific gain. In particular, we suggest that computational resources are likely to be leveraged in two separate but not necessarily distinct ways. On one hand, growth in computational resources will allow LES to be made more routine, that is, performed more frequently, while on the other hand, the computational expense (measured in total floating point operations) afforded to individual LES will expand dramatically, allowing simulations to increase in both domain size and resolution as well as physical detail. Current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) projects such as LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation Activity (LASSO) are leading the way in conducting routine LES, building large, public databases that are accessible for data science, sensitivity studies, and training for machine learning. LES will also become more routine as it becomes more accessible for individual researchers to address their scientific questions of interest. Scientific questions addressed by LES over the next 10 years are likely to include cloud organization and aggregation; aerosol cloud interactions and atmospheric chemistry (including geo-engineering); urban-scale LES; atmospheric extreme events, ranging from small-scale severe weather to wildfires; and ocean-wave-atmosphere interactions. Further LES-related research will likely grow significantly in areas related to societal impact studies of air quality and extreme weather events, applications to renewable energy forecasting and resource assessment, and aid in decision-making processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rotorcraft Research at the NASA Vertical Motion Simulator

In the 1970 s the role of the military helicopter evolved to encompass more demanding missions including low-level nap-of-the-earth flight and operation in severely degraded visual environments. The Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) at the NASA Ames Research Center was built to provide a high-fidelity simulation capability to research new rotorcraft concepts and technologies that could satisfy these mission requirements. The VMS combines a high-fidelity large amplitude motion system with an adaptable simulation environment including interchangeable and configurable cockpits. In almost 30 years of operation, rotorcraft research on the VMS has contributed significantly to the knowledge-base on rotorcraft performance, handling qualities, flight control, and guidance and displays. These contributions have directly benefited current rotorcraft programs and flight safety. The high fidelity motion system in the VMS was also used to research simulation fidelity. This research provided a fundamental understanding of pilot cueing modalities and their effect on simulation fidelity.

Aponso, Bimal Lalith↗

Vegetation Greening Mitigates the Impacts of Increasing Extreme Rainfall on Runoff Events

Future flood risk assessment has primarily focused on heavy rainfall as the main driver, with the assumption that projected increases in extreme rain events will lead to subsequent flooding. However, the presence of and changes in vegetation have long been known to influence the relationship between rainfall and runoff. Here, we extract historical (1850–1880) and projected (2070–2100) daily extreme rainfall events, the corresponding runoff, and antecedent conditions simulated in a prominent large Earth system model ensemble to examine the shifting extreme rainfall and runoff relationship. Even with widespread projected increases in the magnitude (78% of the land surface) and number (72%) of extreme rainfall events, we find projected declines in event-based runoff ratio (runoff/rainfall) for a majority (57%) of the Earth surface. Runoff ratio declines are linked with decreases in antecedent soil water driven by greater transpiration and canopy evaporation (both linked to vegetation greening) compared to areas with runoff ratio increases. Using a machine learning regression tree approach, we find that changes in canopy evaporation is the most important variable related to changes in antecedent soil water content in areas of decreased runoff ratios (with minimal changes in antecedent rainfall) while antecedent ground evaporation is the most important variable in areas of increased runoff ratios. Our results suggest that simulated interactions between vegetation greening, increasing evaporative demand, and antecedent soil drying are projected to diminish runoff associated with extreme rainfall events, with important implications for society.

soil moisture↗

Plankton energy flows using a global size-structured and trait-based model

Plankton community models are critical tools for understanding the processes that shape marine plankton communities, how plankton communities impact biogeochemical cycles, and the feedbacks between community structure and function. Here, using the flexible Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL), we present the Size-based Plankton ECological TRAits (MARBL-SPECTRA) model, which is designed to represent a diverse plankton community while remaining computationally tractable. MARBL-SPECTRA is composed of nine phytoplankton and six zooplankton size classes represented using allometric scaling relationships for physiological traits and interactions within multiple functional types. MARBL-SPECTRA is embedded within the global ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and simulates large-scale, emergent patterns in phytoplankton growth limitation, plankton phenology, plankton generation time, and trophic transfer efficiency. The model qualitatively reproduces observed global patterns of surface nutrients, chlorophyll biomass, net primary production, and the biogeographies of a range of plankton size classes. In addition, the model simulates how predator:prey dynamics and trophic efficiency vary across gradients in total ecosystem productivity. Shorter food chains that export proportionally more carbon from the surface to the ocean interior occur in productive, eutrophic regions, whereas in oligotrophic regions, the food chains are relatively long and export less organic matter from the surface. The union of functional type modeling with size-resolved, trait-based modeling approaches allows MARBL-SPECTRA to capture both large-scale elemental cycles and the structure of planktonic food webs affecting trophic transfer efficiency.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Simulated Spectrum of Convectively Generated Gravity Waves: Propagation from the Tropopause to the Mesopause and Effects on the Middle Atmosphere

This work evaluates the interaction of a simulated spectrum of convectively generated gravity waves with realistic middle atmosphere mean winds. The wave spectrum is derived from the nonlinear convection model described by Alexander et al. that simulated a two-dimensional midlatitude squall line. This spectrum becomes input to a linear ray tracing model for evaluation of wave propagation as a function of height through climatological background wind and buoyancy frequency profiles. The energy defined by the spectrum as a function of wavenumber and frequency is distributed spatially and temporally into wave packets for the purpose of estimating wave amplitudes at the lower boundary of the ray tracing model. A wavelet analysis provides an estimate of these wave packet widths in space and time. Without this redistribution of energies into wave packets the Fourier analysis alone inaccurately assumes the energy is evenly distributed throughout the storm model domain. The growth with height of wave amplitudes is derived from wave action flux conservation coupled to a convective instability saturation condition. Mean flow accelerations and wave energy dissipation profiles are derived from this analysis and compared to parameterized estimates of gravity wave forcing, providing a measure of the importance of the storm source to global gravity wave forcing. The results suggest that a single large convective storm system like the simulated squall line could provide a significant fraction of the zonal mean gravity wave forcing at some levels, particularly in the mesosphere. The vertical distributions of mean flow acceleration and energy dissipation do not much resemble the parameterized profiles in form because of the peculiarities of the spectral properties of the waves from the storm source. The ray tracing model developed herein provides a tool for examining the role of convectively generated waves in middle atmosphere physics.

Alexander, Joan↗