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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Single Input Single Output Control Systems

The current standards for handling uncertainty in control systems use interval bounds for definition of the uncertain parameters. This approach gives no information about the likelihood of system performance, but simply gives the response bounds. When used in design, current methods of m-analysis and can lead to overly conservative controller design. With these methods, worst case conditions are weighted equally with the most likely conditions. This research explores a unique approach for probabilistic analysis of control systems. Current reliability methods are examined showing the strong areas of each in handling probability. A hybrid method is developed using these reliability tools for efficiently propagating probabilistic uncertainty through classical control analysis problems. The method developed is applied to classical response analysis as well as analysis methods that explore the effects of the uncertain parameters on stability and performance metrics. The benefits of using this hybrid approach for calculating the mean and variance of responses cumulative distribution functions are shown. Results of the probabilistic analysis of a missile pitch control system, and a non-collocated mass spring system, show the added information provided by this hybrid analysis.

Smith, Brett A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Some characteristics of low-frequency oscillations observed at ATS 1.

Analysis of low-frequency oscillations of the magnetic field at ATS 1 for the 25-month data interval from December 1966 to December 1968. Irregular oscillations and oscillations associated with magnetic storms were excluded from the analysis. Of the 222 events identified, 170 events were oscillating predominantly transverse to the background magnetic field. The oscillations were observed to occur most frequently in the early afternoon hours. They also seemed to occur more frequently during December, January, and February than at other times of the year. During a given individual event the frequency was fairly constant and it varied between .0015 and .02 Hz with a broad peak near .01 Hz. The event duration varied between a minimum of 10 min and a maximum of 14 hours and 26 min. During a given event the amplitude varied. The average maximum amplitude of an event was about 3 gamma.

Cummings, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Tidal winds at mesopause altitudes over Arecibo (18 deg N, 67 deg W), 5-11 April 1989 (AIDA '89)

A tidal analysis of the imaging Doppler interferometer scattering point parameter data at upper mesosphere-lower thermosphere altitudes (70-110 km) is presented, on the basis of the procedure developed by Groves (1959), over the interval April 5-11, 1989 at Aercibo as part of Project AIDA. This analysis reveals a typical equatorial easterly circulation, with mean meridional circulation becoming significant only above 96 km. A periodogram analysis shows the diurnal tide to be the most significant feature of the wind field at these altitudes, with zonal amplitudes up to some 50 m/s and meridional amplitudes approximately half this value. The semidiurnal tide is well developed in both zonal and meridional directions only above 96 km. Both 8- and 6-hr components become significant above 100 km, the 6-h component being as strong as both the 24- and 12-h tides at 100 km.

Roper, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Respiratory modulation of human autonomic rhythms

We studied the influence of three types of breathing [spontaneous, frequency controlled (0.25 Hz), and hyperventilation with 100% oxygen] and apnea on R-R interval, photoplethysmographic arterial pressure, and muscle sympathetic rhythms in nine healthy young adults. We integrated fast Fourier transform power spectra over low (0.05-0.15 Hz) and respiratory (0.15-0.3 Hz) frequencies; estimated vagal baroreceptor-cardiac reflex gain at low frequencies with cross-spectral techniques; and used partial coherence analysis to remove the influence of breathing from the R-R interval, systolic pressure, and muscle sympathetic nerve spectra. Coherence among signals varied as functions of both frequency and time. Partialization abolished the coherence among these signals at respiratory but not at low frequencies. The mode of breathing did not influence low-frequency oscillations, and they persisted during apnea. Our study documents the independence of low-frequency rhythms from respiratory activity and suggests that the close correlations that may exist among arterial pressures, R-R intervals, and muscle sympathetic nerve activity at respiratory frequencies result from the influence of respiration on these measures rather than from arterial baroreflex physiology. Most importantly, our results indicate that correlations among autonomic and hemodynamic rhythms vary over time and frequency, and, thus, are facultative rather than fixed.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Component-level Performance and Mass Sensitivity Analysis of NEP MW-class Power System

Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) is a promising option towards enabling missions to Mars and is an area of interest for NASA’s Space Nuclear Propulsion project. This project is currently investigating technology development opportunities for an NEP vehicle. Physics-based modeling can be used in the early stages of technology development to gain understanding of the effects of technology and performance assumptions on the system performance and mass. This information can then inform technology maturation planning for near term development. By using a Brayton power conversion model and vehicle mass model for megawatt class NEP applications, a sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of individual components’ performance on the power conversion system performance and system mass. A Monte Carlo simulation is also used to determine the variability in system mass based on uncertainty within the modeling parameters. The sensitivity analysis shows a high sensitivity to power conversion inlet temperature, compressor inlet temperature, and recuperator performance. A Monte Carlo analysis suggests a range of -10% to +15% for a 90% confidence interval on system mass based on the uncertainties in the model inputs.

Nuclear electric propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2022

Identifying Meteorologic and Oceanic Conditions Contributing to a Unique Phytoplankton Bloom Occurrence in Micronesia during October 2013

On the first several days of October 2013, daily chlorophyll a (chl a) data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aqua satellite detected a marked increase in chlorophyll a concentrations (chl a) in the vicinity of Chuuk Lagoon and the Federated States of Micronesia. Such an increase, likely indicative of a phytoplankton bloom, has not been observed in this location at any other time during the MODIS-Aqua mission, which commenced in 2002 and continues to present. Examination of sea surface wind data from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis dataset indicated that the region experienced a sequence of alternating elevated and very low wind speed events prior to the observation of the bloom. The influence of the winds can be seen in MERRA-2 sea surface skin temperature data. Elevated windspeeds for several days likely induced a mixing of deeper waters with higher nutrient levels to the surface, which was followed by stratification and phytoplankton growth during low wind intervals and finally transport induced by a brief high windspeed event. Analysis of hourly MERRA-2 maximum windspeed data over a 40-year period indicated that this sequence was climatologically rare.

Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS1972

Single photon detection and timing in the Lunar Laser Ranging Experiment.

The goals of the Lunar Laser Ranging Experiment lead to the need for the measurement of a 2.5 sec time interval to an accuracy of a nanosecond or better. The systems analysis which included practical retroreflector arrays, available laser systems, and large telescopes led to the necessity of single photon detection. Operation under all background illumination conditions required auxiliary range gates and extremely narrow spectral and spatial filters in addition to the effective gate provided by the time resolution. Nanosecond timing precision at relatively high detection efficiency was obtained using the RCA C31000F photomultiplier and Ortec 270 constant fraction of pulse-height timing discriminator. The timing accuracy over the 2.5 sec interval was obtained using a digital interval with analog vernier ends. Both precision and accuracy are currently checked internally using a triggerable, nanosecond light pulser. Future measurements using sub-nanosecond laser pulses will be limited by the time resolution of single photon detectors.

Poultney, S. K.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The solar wind effect on cosmic rays and solar activity

The relation of cosmic ray intensity to solar wind velocity is investigated, using neutron monitor data from Kiel and Deep River. The analysis shows that the regression coefficient of the average intensity for a time interval to the corresponding average velocity is negative and that the absolute effect increases monotonously with the interval of averaging, tau, that is, from -0.5% per 100km/s for tau = 1 day to -1.1% per 100km/s for tau = 27 days. For tau 27 days the coefficient becomes almost constant independently of the value of tau. The analysis also shows that this tau-dependence of the regression coefficiently is varying with the solar activity.

Fujimoto, K.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Short-term variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity - 1964-1967

A statistical analysis of time variations in ground-level nucleonic cosmic-ray intensity for the interval from 1964 to 1967 is presented which incorporates synoptic observations of the solar white-light corona as well as indices of photospheric and chromospheric activity. Correlation analysis of solar activity and short-term modulation reveals that all indices vary significantly on time scales near the solar rotation period and that the correlation function exhibits a quasi-sinusoidal variation that maximizes near zero lag. It is found that 27-day variations of the indices were most pronounced in 1966-1967, that recurrent cosmic-ray depressions occurred in conjunction with observed solar-wind disturbances, and that two categories of interplanetary disturbance are sufficient to account for the large recurrent cosmic-ray depressions in 1966-1967. It is suggested that flare-generated shocks were the main source of these recurrent cosmic-ray variations and that the contribution of corotating cosmic-ray disturbances to the observed recurrent modulation was probably very small. This hypothesis is tested against the correlation functions of solar and cosmic-ray indices.

Parker, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Fundamental relations between short-term RR interval and arterial pressure oscillations in humans

BACKGROUND: One of the principal explanations for respiratory sinus arrhythmia is that it reflects arterial baroreflex buffering of respiration-induced arterial pressure fluctuations. If this explanation is correct, then elimination of RR interval fluctuations should increase respiratory arterial pressure fluctuations. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured RR interval and arterial pressure fluctuations during normal sinus rhythm and fixed-rate atrial pacing at 17.2+/-1.8 (SEM) beats per minute greater than the sinus rate in 16 healthy men and 4 healthy women, 20 to 34 years of age. Measurements were made during controlled-frequency breathing (15 breaths per minute or 0.25 Hz) with subjects in the supine and 40 degree head-up tilt positions. We characterized RR interval and arterial pressure variabilities in low-frequency (0.05 to 0.15 Hz) and respiratory-frequency (0.20 to 0.30 Hz) ranges with fast Fourier transform power spectra and used cross-spectral analysis to determine the phase relation between the two signals. As expected, cardiac pacing eliminated beat-to-beat RR interval variability. Against expectations, however, cardiac pacing in the supine position significantly reduced arterial pressure oscillations in the respiratory frequency (systolic, 6.8+/-1.8 to 2.9 +/-0.6 mm Hg2/Hz, P=.017). In contrast, cardiac pacing in the 40 degree tilt position increased arterial pressure variability (systolic, 8.0+/-1.8 to 10.8 +/-2.6, P=.027). Cross-spectral analysis showed that 40 degree tilt shifted the phase relation between systolic pressure and RR interval at the respiratory frequency from positive to negative (9 +/-7 degrees versus -17+/-11 degrees, P=.04); that is, in the supine position, RR interval changes appeared to lead arterial pressure changes, and in the upright position, RR interval changes appeared to follow arterial pressure changes. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that respiratory sinus arrhythmia can actually contribute to respiratory arterial pressure fluctuations. Therefore, respiratory sinus arrhythmia does not represent simple baroreflex buffering of arterial pressure.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1974

Ephemeris data and error analysis in support of a Comet Encke intercept mission

Utilizing an orbit determination based upon 65 observations over the 1961 - 1973 interval, ephemeris data were generated for the 1976-77, 1980-81 and 1983-84 apparitions of short period comet Encke. For the 1980-81 apparition, results from a statistical error analysis are outlined. All ephemeris and error analysis computations include the effects of planetary perturbations as well as the nongravitational accelerations introduced by the outgassing cometary nucleus. In 1980, excellent observing conditions and a close approach of comet Encke to the earth permit relatively small uncertainties in the cometary position errors and provide an excellent opportunity for a close flyby of a physically interesting comet.

Yeomans, D. K.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Kinetic energy budget during strong jet stream activity over the eastern United States

Kinetic energy budgets are computed during a cold air outbreak in association with strong jet stream activity over the eastern United States. The period is characterized by large generation of kinetic energy due to cross-contour flow. Horizontal export and dissipation of energy to subgrid scales of motion constitute the important energy sinks. Rawinsonde data at 3 and 6 h intervals during a 36 h period are used in the analysis and reveal that energy fluctuations on a time scale of less than 12 h are generally small even though the overall energy balance does change considerably during the period in conjunction with an upper level trough which moves through the region. An error analysis of the energy budget terms suggests that this major change in the budget is not due to random errors in the input data but is caused by the changing synoptic situation. The study illustrates the need to consider the time and space scales of associated weather phenomena in interpreting energy budgets obtained through use of higher frequency data.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Stability analysis of numerical boundary conditions and implicit difference approximations for hyperbolic equations

Implicit, noniterative, finite difference schemes were recently developed by several authors for multidimensional systems of nonlinear hyperbolic partial differential equations. When applied to linear model equations with periodic boundary conditions those schemes are unconditionally stable (A-stable). As applied in practice the algorithms often face a severe time step restriction. A major source of the difficulty is the treatment of the numerical boundary conditions. One conjecture was that unconditional stability requires implicit numerical boundary conditions. An apparent counter example was the space time extrapolation considered by Gustafsson, Kreiss, and Sunstrom. Spatial (implicit) and space time (explicit) extrapolation using normal mode analysis for a finite and infinite number of spatial mesh intervals are examined. The results indicate that for unconditional stability with a finite number of spatial mesh intervals, the numerical boundary conditions must be implicit.

Beam, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Observations and a model of gravity-wave variability in the middle atmosphere

A major goal was to determine what portion of the gravity-wave frequency spectrum accounted for the majority of the momentum flux and divergence, as this has important implications for the middle atmosphere response. It was found that approx. 70% of the total flux and divergence was due to wave motions with observed periods less than 1 hour, consistent with expectations based on the shape of the observed gravity-wave spectrum (FrItts, 1984). This dominance of the momentum flux and divergence by high-frequency motions implies a potential for the modulation of those quantities by large-amplitude motions at lower frequencies. A second, striking aspect of the velocity and momentum flux data is its dramatic diurnal variability, particularly at certain levels. This variability is illustrated with the momentum flux, computed in 8-hr blocks. The dominant contributions here are due to waves with periods less than 1 hr. The variability with height and size of the mean square velocity in the west beam and the momentum flux, energed over the 3-day period. A detailed analysis of the various tidal motions present during this data interval was performed, and it was determined that variations in the zontal wind profile imposed by the diurnal tidal motion are probably responsible for the modulation of the gravity-wave amplitudes and momentum fluxes.

Fritts, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Observations of quasi-periodic oscillations from GX 5 - 1 and Cygnus X-2 with the Einstein (HEAO 2) Observatory

The bright galactic bulge X-ray source GX 5 - 1 was observed in April 1979 with the Monitor Proportional Counter on board the Einstein (HEAO 2) Observatory. Analysis of the high time resolution data from the Time Interval Processor confirms the recent Exosat discovery of quasi-periodic oscillations in the X-ray emission from GX 5 - 1. In addition, the summed 0.4 s power spectrum shows the low-frequency red noise component also discovered in the Exosat data. Low-frequency structure is also clearly present in data taken from the bright galaxtic X-ray source Cyg X-2 in December 1978. The expected power spectrum for quasi-periodic oscillations was calculated, including the low-frequency red noise component, using a simple shot noise model with oscillating shots.

Elsner, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Further analyses of human kidney cell populations separated on the Space Shuttle

Cultured human embryonic kidney cells were separated into electrophoretic subpopulations in laboratory experiments and in two separation experiments on the STS-8 (Challenger) Space Shuttle flight using the mid-deck Continuous Flow Electrophoretic Separator (CFES). Populations of cells from each fraction were cultured for the lifetime of the cells, and supernatant medium was withdrawn and replaced at 4-day intervals. Withdrawn medium was frozen at -120 C for subsequent analysis. Enzyme assays, antibodies and gel electrophoresis were used as analytical tools for the detection and quantization of plasminogen activators in these samples. These assays of frozen-culture supernatant fluids confirmed the electrophoretic separation of plasminogen-activator-producing cells from nonproducing cells, the isolation of cells capable of sustained production, and the separation of cells that produce different plasminogen activators from one other.

Stewart, Robin M.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Idaho Wildfires II: Assessing the Relationship Between Drought Indicators and Wildfire Risk to Enhance Hazard Modeling and Inform Mitigation Planning

The western United States has experienced twenty years of increased and prolonged drought which have exacerbated wildfire hazards. These jeopardize population centers through increased risks to ecosystem services, local economies, and livelihoods. The Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Water Resources, and Department of Lands are seeking methods to dynamically monitor these conditions and update models that inform hazard mitigation planning and resource allocation. Towards this, these agencies partnered with NASA DEVELOP to produce drought-enhanced wildfire hazard models. Part of a two-term project, the two teams revised the state’s static wildfire hazard model with refined data layers and remotely-sensed data to reflect dynamic ecosystem responses to drought conditions and wildfire potential. Our team distinguished between rangeland and forestland ecosystems, and investigated relationships between drought metrics and vegetation condition using TerrSet Earth Trends Modeler. This analysis determined that total precipitation at a 5-month lag interval (r 2 = 0.72) along with the Evaporative Stress Index (r 2 = 0.69); and precipitation at a 5-month interval (r 2 = 0.42) were important drivers in rangeland and forestland, respectively. These driver variables were incorporated into a temporally dynamic wildfire hazard map. Our team used linear regression to correlate hazard ratings with wildfire frequency. For the year 2020, neither the enhanced hazard model (p < 0.10, r 2 = 0.01) nor the state’s static model (p < 0.05, r 2 = 0.03) were strongly correlated with actual wildfire frequency as they expressed an inverse relationship between wildfire hazard and frequency. This suggests wildfire occurrence is complex and not necessarily driven by the variables used.

Wildfire↗
NASA NTRS2004

Characterization and Uncertainty Analysis of a Reference Pressure Measurement System for Wind Tunnels

This paper presents the calibration results and uncertainty analysis of a high-precision reference pressure measurement system currently used in wind tunnels at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Sensors, calibration standards, and measurement instruments are subject to errors due to aging, drift with time, environment effects, transportation, the mathematical model, the calibration experimental design, and other factors. Errors occur at every link in the chain of measurements and data reduction from the sensor to the final computed results. At each link of the chain, bias and precision uncertainties must be separately estimated for facility use, and are combined to produce overall calibration and prediction confidence intervals for the instrument, typically at a 95% confidence level. The uncertainty analysis and calibration experimental designs used herein, based on techniques developed at LaRC, employ replicated experimental designs for efficiency, separate estimation of bias and precision uncertainties, and detection of significant parameter drift with time. Final results, including calibration confidence intervals and prediction intervals given as functions of the applied inputs, not as a fixed percentage of the full-scale value are presented. System uncertainties are propagated beginning with the initial reference pressure standard, to the calibrated instrument as a working standard in the facility. Among the several parameters that can affect the overall results are operating temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, and facility vibration. Effects of factors such as initial zeroing and temperature are investigated. The effects of the identified parameters on system performance and accuracy are discussed.

Amer, Tahani↗