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DOE OSTI2026

AI-Driven Frameworks for Characterizing Urban Energy Systems

We develop AI-driven frameworks to characterize urban energy systems with the goal of transforming planning by reducing the labor of model generation, scaling scenario exploration, and improving accuracy for localized analysis. The approach integrates top-down and bottom-up data to train different AI models that predict missing information and generate inputs and targeted scenarios for district-scale models. The result is a scalable framework that provides actionable insights for reliable and efficient planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-guided design of direct methanol fuel cells with a platinum group metal-free cathode

Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) offer a promising solution for clean electricity generation, particularly in small electronics and remote auxiliary power units. However, optimizing their efficiency and performance is challenging due to the complex interactions between various factors. Here, we present a novel approach that integrates experiments with machine learning to model and predict the performance of these fuel cells using atomically dispersed platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts at the cathode. Further, our machine learning models, trained on diverse input parameters, allow for the comprehensive optimization of DMFC performance prior to fabrication and testing. Through extensive experimental validation, we demonstrate that this data-driven approach accurately predicts key performance metrics, such as maximum power output and polarization curves. By combining our models with interpretable game-theory methods, we provide deep insights into the factors governing fuel cell performance, ultimately paving the way for the design of scalable and efficient DMFC technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-assisted profiling of a kinked ladder polymer structure using scattering

Ladder polymers consisting of fused rings in the backbone have very limited conformational freedom, which results in very different properties from traditional linear polymers. However, accurately determining their size and chain conformations from solution scattering remains a challenge. Their chain conformations of kinked ladder polymers are largely governed by the structures and relative orientations or configurations of the repeat units, unlike conventional polymer chains whose bending angles between repeat units follow a unimodal Gaussian distribution. Meanwhile, traditional scattering models for polymer chains do not account for these unique structural features. This work introduces a novel approach that integrates machine learning with Monte Carlo simulations to construct a model that can describe the geometry of a type of kinked CANAL ladder polymers. We first develop a Monte Carlo simulation model for sampling the configuration space of CANAL ladder polymers, where each repeat unit is modeled as a biaxial segment. Then, we establish a machine learning-assisted scattering analysis framework based on Gaussian Process Regression. Finally, we conduct small-angle neutron scattering experiments on a CANAL ladder polymer solution to apply our approach. Our method uncovers structural features of such ladder polymers that conventional methods fail to capture.

Ding, Lijie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Physical Security Using EMRALD and MAAP (Presentation)

The optimization of physical security in nuclear power plants requires sophisticated methodologies that integrate operator actions and plant behavior through advanced simulation tools. Idaho National Laboratory has developed the Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF) methodology, an approach that integrates force-on-force simulations, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment, and thermal hydraulics modeling to enhance security planning while reducing costs. A reduced order model for thermal hydraulic simulations performed by the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) was developed to evaluate reactor core behavior during attack scenarios. MAAP simulations are computationally intensive and must be run in a secure environment, complicating analysis and validation. By pre-computed scenario outcomes for a small number of modified parameters, the reduced order model significantly decreases the computational cost and enables offsite review of the results.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Phase diagram of magnetic shape memory alloy Ni 50 Mn $50–x$ In $x$ , 0 < $x$ , 25 from first principles, via spin cluster expansion and phonon vibrational entropies

The metamagnetic shape memory Heusler alloy Ni 50 Mn $50–x$ In $x$ exhibits a rich phase diagram featuring competing magnetic states, coupled magnetic–structural phase transitions, and strong compositional sensitivity. Existing first-principles approaches struggletocapturetheintertwinedchemical, magnetic, andvibrationaleffectsinthesealloys, necessitating a more integrated modeling framework. We develop a spin cluster expansion (spin-CE) framework augmented by a quasi-harmonic phonon model to capture both configurational (chemical and magnetic) and vibrational contributions to the free energy of Ni 50 Mn $50–x$ In $x$ over the full compositional range 0 ≤ x ≤25. The spin-CE includes both chemical clusters and composition-dependent Ising spin interactions, with parameters fit to a first-principles density functional theory (DFT) dataset. Using this approach, we predict the complete magnetostructural phase diagram and transformation temperatures of Ni 50 Mn $50–x$ In $x$ across the composition space. We find that vibrational entropy alone is insufficient to reproduce the martensitic transformation in the magnetic shape memory alloy regime, highlighting the essential role of magnetism. Incorporating both magnetic and vibrational contributions allows us to reproduce all experimentally known phases, including the disappearance of the stable martensite phase at a critical In concentration and the Curie temperature of the austenite phase. The method also captures the transition with increasing In in martensite from antiferromagnetic to ferromagnetic order and predicts re-entrant ferromagnetism, though the latter occurs at higher In content than reported experimentally. We discuss possible sources of this discrepancy and highlight the broader applicability of the method to other magnetostructurally complex materials, where it may offer mechanistic insight and predictive design capabilities.

Cluster expansion↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and Calibration of Supplier Selection Problem in Freight Agent-Based Simulations

Freight transportation modeling often struggles with data limitations, especially in accurately representing complex supplier selection processes and their impact on network flows. This research addresses this critical gap by developing a large-scale, calibrated agent-based model for supplier selection, complemented by a probabilistic heuristic for international shipments. Our approach integrates trade relationships between industry sectors, transportation costs, and a supplier-rating model adapted from existing literature. The model’s core objective is to minimize the discrepancy between modeled and observed commodity flows while ensuring a close match to regional shipping distance distributions. Implemented and tested across four major U.S. metropolitan areas—Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas–Fort Worth, and Los Angeles—the model demonstrates high fidelity in replicating observed freight patterns. Key findings reveal consistent alignment with national shipping distance trends and highlight significant spatial variations in commodity trade assignments and demand across the study regions. This behaviorally informed and transport-sensitive framework is designed to approximate real-world decision making, providing a robust tool for policymakers and planners to evaluate targeted interventions, assess infrastructure investments, and enhance supply chain resilience in the face of disruptions.

Ismael, Abdelrahman (ORCID:0000000303712110)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Inversion of In Situ Deformation Measurement Data for Injection-Induced Stress Change

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is likely to play a key part of the global effort to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions and perhaps even reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations through carbon negative operations. A critical part of effort to commercialize and widely deploy this technology is developing the capability to rapidly assimilate real-time monitoring data into a form that will enable site operators to make decisions to manage the safe and efficient operations. Two of the risks associate with GCS are the risk of inducing fractures in the sealing formations that can create leakage pathways and the risk of inducing earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to cause public concern, property damage, or safety risks. To properly manage these risks the site operator needs to know the initial state of stress, the change in stress induced by injection, and the relationship between operational parameters such as injection rate and pressure and the change in stress. Current methods of estimating the change in stress require choosing the type of constitutive model and the model parameters based on core, log, and geophysical data during the characterization phase, with little feedback from operational observations to validate or refine these choices. These characterization methods interrogate the geologic formations using length scales, loading rates or magnitudes that are quite different from those encountered by the actual storage system. It is shown that errors in the assumed constitutive response, even when informed by laboratory tests on core samples, are likely to be common, large, and underestimate the magnitude of stress change caused by injection. Recent advances in borehole-based strain instruments and borehole and surface-based tilt and displacement instruments have now enabled monitoring of the deformation of the storage system throughout its operational lifespan. This data can enable validation and refinement of the knowledge of the geomechanical properties and state of the system, but brings with it a challenge to transform the raw data into actionable knowledge. We demonstrate a method that uses automatic differentiation and a finite-element based geomechanical model perform a gradient-based deterministic inversion of geomechanical monitoring data. This approach allows autonomous integration of the instrument data without the need for time consuming manual interpretation and selection of updated model parameters. Furthermore, only isotropic linear elasticity is considered in this paper, the approach presented is very flexible as to what type of geomechanical constitutive response can be used. The approach is easily adaptable to nonlinear physics-based constitutive models to account for common rock behaviors such as creep and plasticity. The approach also enables training of machine learning-based constitutive models by allowing back propagation of errors through the finite element calculations. This enables strongly enforcing known physics, such as conservation of momentum and continuity, while allowing data-driven models to learn the truly unknown physics such as the constitutive or petrophysical responses.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-Open-IAM: Open Wellbore Component (V.2.0)

The Open Wellbore component of NRAP-Open-IAM is applicable to the calculation of Area of Review at a carbon storage site and fast estimation of dense gas dispersion from multiple continuous CO 2 surface leakage sources for risk assessment. The Open Wellbore Component of NRAP-Open-IAM is a lookup table model based on the drift-flux approach. The National Research Assessment Partnership’s second-generation integrated assessment model, NRAP-Open-IAM, is open-source software written in Python for use in performance and quantitative risk assessment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems. The look-up table for open well leakage is an updated version the previous model which provides finer resolution of reservoir depth and more accurate fluid properties than the previous open well look-up table, especially in calculating the gas (CO 2 -rich) phase properties. The component model input parameters include the reservoir transmissivity, aquifer transmissivity, brine salinity, well radius, and well top and bottom depths. The reservoir transmissivity and brine salinity were set to values consistent with the reservoir component, and the well top and bottom depths varied with location. The possible outputs from the Open Wellbore component are leakage rates of CO 2 and brine to either an aquifer or atmosphere, depending on the depth of the well top. Several python test scripts are presented that demonstrate that the Open Wellbore component works correctly. Use of the open wellbore model in NRAP-Open-IAM may result in a large CO 2 leakage rates, comparable to the leakage rates of CO 2 blow out.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrological connectivity: a review and emerging strategies for integrating measurement, modeling, and management

This review synthesizes methods for measuring, modeling, and managing hydrologic connectivity, offering pathways to improve practices and address environmental challenges (e.g., climate change) and sustainability. As a key driver of water movement and nutrient cycling, hydrologic connectivity influences flood mitigation, water quality regulation, and biodiversity conservation. However, traditional field-based methods (e.g., dye tracing), indirect measurements (e.g., runoff analysis), and remote sensing techniques (e.g., InSAR) often struggle to capture the complexity of catchment-scale interactions. Similarly, modeling approaches—including process-based and percolation theory-based models, graph theory, and entropy-based metrics—face limitations in fully representing these interconnected processes. Both modeling and measurement techniques are constrained by inadequate spatial and temporal coverage, high data demands, computational complexity, and difficulties in representing subsurface connectivity. Subsequently, we critique current management practices that prioritize isolated variables (e.g., streamflow, sediment transport) over system-wide strategies and emphasize the need for adaptive, connectivity-based approaches in water resource planning and restoration. Moving forward, we highlight the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, technological innovations (e.g., AI-driven modeling, real-time monitoring), and integrated frameworks to improve connectivity measurement, modeling, and adaptive management to restore fragmented hydrologic networks. This integrated approach sets the stage for transformative water resource management, fostering proactive policy development and stakeholder engagement.

Dwivedi, Dipankar↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics Informed Neural Networks as Computational Physics Emulators

This report is a brief overview and evaluation of Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). Karniadakis and co-workers, e.g., Karniadakis et al. (2021) assert that the PINNs approach integrates seamlessly both data and mathematical physics models, even in partially understood, uncertain and high-dimensional contexts. They further claim that PINNs are effective and efficient for ill-posed and inverse problems, and when combined with domain decomposition, are scalable to large problems and a tool to discover hidden physics. While they demonstrate the capabilities in specific academic instances, their overarching claims about PINNs seem to be an overstatement, at least at the current time. We have briefly considered a few of the limitations of PINNs in this investigation. It is not clear to us if the PINNs approach can ever be competitive with approaches that use specialized algorithms to achieve high-accuracy solutions of governing equations and other techniques that can combine observational data with such solutions. As an example of the latter, consistent with the principles of Bayesian inference, data assimilation, or more generally data-model fusion, is a process that fuses observational data typically with a computational model that respects certain constraints such as conservation laws. For example, improvements in observational network combined with data assimilation have been key in improving weather predictions over the past four decades Kalnay (2003).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

New ASME Section III, Division 5 Creep-Fatigue Design Rules Based on EPP and SMT Approaches

The integrated elastic-perfectly plastic (EPP) and simplified model test (SMT) creep-fatigue (CF) design methodology, referred to as the EPP-SMT method, is being developed as an alternative for CF evaluation in the design of pressure boundary components for high-temperature reactors. This report reviews the conceptual basis of the EPP-SMT methodology, summarizes the SMT experimental development efforts and results, and provides the technical basis for finalizing the EPP-SMT CF design curves for Alloy 617, based on a combined experimental and numerical approach conducted in FY 2024. This report presents the effect of hold time on the CF design curves for Alloy 617 at elevated temperatures. It includes proposed EPP-SMT CF design curves and tabulated values for continuous cycling, along with the effects of maximum hold time, for the use of this EPP-SMT CF evaluation method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Physical Security Using EMRALD and MAAP

The optimization of physical security in nuclear power plants requires sophisticated methodologies that integrate operator actions and plant behavior through advanced simulation tools. To address this, Idaho National Laboratory [JL2.1]has developed the Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF) methodology, an approach that integrates force-on-force simulations, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment, and thermal-hydraulics modeling [JL3.1]to enhance security planning while reducing costs. We developed a tool that produces reduced order models using thermal hydraulic simulations from the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) [1]. These models can quickly evaluate reactor core behavior during attack simulations, and in so doing, address two barriers of traditional methods: (1) MAAP simulations are computationally intensive, and (2) attack scenarios must be run in a secure environment, which complicates analysis and validation. By precomputing scenario outcomes for a small number of modified parameters, the reduced order model significantly decreases the computational cost and enables offsite review of the results.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan details the strategy, mission, scope, and goals—both near-term and long-term—along with the structure and organization of nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities within the Fuel Cycle Technologies (FCT) program. The FCT program, tasked by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), employs a science-based approach to advance fuel technologies. This approach integrates theory, experiments, and multi-scale modeling and simulation (M&S) to develop a predictive understanding of fuel fabrication processes and fuel/cladding performance under irradiation, moving beyond traditional empirical methods. The long-term goals of the AFC are guided by the AFC Strategic Plan and align with the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Roadmap [1], which outlines a multi-decade vision for demonstrating and qualifying advanced fuel forms to support diverse fuel cycle options. Near-term goals focus on enhancing accident tolerant fuels (ATF) for Light Water Reactors (LWR), a significant challenge that demands balancing immediate objectives with ongoing progress toward advanced reactor missions. Accelerating the traditional fuel qualification process to meet ATF objectives is another critical challenge. A detailed set of 5-year goals, summarized below, has been developed in line with the overarching science-based fuel development approach: • Advanced LWR Fuel Technologies: By 2027, support the development of advanced LWR fuel technologies with improved performance and enhanced accident tolerance. This includes high burnup (HBu), low enriched uranium (LEU)+, coated cladding, and doped fuel, aimed at complementing industry-led significant LWR uprates and plant refurbishments. • Tristructural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel: Achieve qualification by 2028 and develop improved designs for emerging markets. • Metal Fuel: Achieve qualification by 2028 and develop improved designs for emerging markets. • Molten Salt Fuel: By 2027, deploy a robust program that enables fuel salt qualification technologies needed to support fuel salt research and development (R&D), focusing on emergent needs to derisk fuel salt production and utilization in advanced reactors. • Long-Term ATF: Develop fuel technologies that enable significant power uprates (~50%) in refurbished or new LWRs while optimizing fissile material utilization and waste disposal. The 5-year milestones in the AFC Execution Plan are contingent on an assumed budget. This Execution Plan will be updated annually to reflect actual funding profiles as budget guidance becomes available, ensuring milestones are adjusted accordingly. In summary, the AFC Execution Plan presents a comprehensive strategy to advance nuclear fuel technologies through a science-based approach, addressing both near-term and long-term goals while adapting to funding realities.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

SAVY-4000 Finite-Element Drop Test Analysis

PFE Auxiliary Systems conducted drop testing on SAVY-4000 containers to evaluate structural response under 12-foot drop conditions. In support of that effort, a finite-element modeling capability was developed to simulate drop response across multiple container sizes and impact orientations. The purpose of this work was to provide a consistent analysis framework that could support interpretation of testing, compare response trends across multiple configurations, and generate quantities of interest for later comparison with experimental data. More broadly, the analysis and testing were intended to assess whether the containers continued to perform their primary function after a 12-foot drop, namely maintaining structural integrity and containment of the contents. The modeling approach combined an implicit preload analysis with an explicit drop simulation so that each drop event began from a mechanically realistic assembled condition, including compression of the silicone O-ring. Separate models were developed for 2-quart, 5-quart, 12-quart, and 10-gallon containers. The results were evaluated in terms of strain-gauge response, collar-lid gap behavior, and accumulated plastic strain. In addition, parametric studies were performed on the 2-quart container to assess sensitivity to O-ring stiffness, friction, canister thickness, geometry tolerance, and mesh density. The simulations showed that predicted drop responses depended strongly on both container size and drop orientation. Gap metrics identified cases in which the predicted collar-lid opening exceeded the nominal O-ring cross-section threshold, while plastic strain metrics identified localized regions of elevated permanent deformation. Parametric studies showed that the predicted response was especially sensitive to the assumed O-ring stiffness and contact friction, while the geometry tolerance study produced smaller changes in the cases examined. The main value of this work was that it established a repeatable modeling and simulation workflow to support drop-test implementation, evaluate effects of future configuration changes, and understand modeling assumptions that most influenced predicted response. At the current stage, the results were viewed as preliminary model predictions rather than validated predictions. The next step would be to compare drop-test data to the model so that predictive values of the workflow could be refined and used with greater confidence to assess whether the containers maintained structural integrity and containment of the contents after a 12-foot drop.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Disruption modelling for engineering and physics design of ST-E1 fusion power plant

Plasma disruptions represent a critical challenge for high-performance tokamak operations, as they can compromise machine integrity and reduce operational availability. Although future fusion devices essentially need to incorporate strategies to minimise disruption occurrence, complete avoidance remains unattainable. Consequently, assessing and characterising unmitigated disruption consequences is fundamental for the design and qualification of next-generation fusion power plants. This work supports the pre-conceptual design of ST-E1, a low aspect-ratio Tokamak Fusion Power Plant developed by Tokamak Energy Ltd., by presenting a comprehensive disruption modelling approach applied across different design stages. The methodology integrates both physics and engineering considerations to evaluate the impact of disruptions on machine performance and structural integrity. From an engineering perspective, several ST-E1 layout options were analysed to investigate the electromagnetic response of key components under disruption-induced loads, enabling comparison between alternative design solutions. On the physics side, a broad set of disruption scenarios was explored, scanning operational space parameters, plasma-material interactions, and associated thermal loads. Furthermore, the study examined variations in disruption behaviour arising from different reference equilibria, focusing on a range starting from Double Null to Single Null configurations, reflecting the increasing up-down asymmetry consequences. The results reveal significant contrasts in plasma dynamics and structures electromagnetic behaviour between configurations, highlighting the importance of disruption modelling in guiding design choices. These analyses have proven instrumental in shaping ST-E1 development, offering critical insights for mitigating risks and optimising future fusion power plant designs.

Borowiec, Katarzyna [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000335911739↗

DOE OSTI2024

Manufactured solutions for an electromagnetic slot model

The accurate modeling of electromagnetic penetration is an important topic in computational electromagnetics. Electromagnetic penetration occurs through intentional or inadvertent openings in an otherwise closed electromagnetic scatterer, which prevent the contents from being fully shielded from external fields. To efficiently model electromagnetic penetration, aperture or slot models can be used with surface integral equations to solve Maxwell's equations. A necessary step towards establishing the credibility of these models is to assess the correctness of the implementation of the underlying numerical methods through code verification. Surface integral equations and slot models yield multiple interacting sources of numerical error and other challenges, which render traditional code-verification approaches ineffective. In this paper, we provide approaches to separately measure the numerical errors arising from these different error sources for the method-of-moments implementation of the electric-field integral equation with a slot model. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches for a variety of cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

The cis-regulatory codes of response to combined heat and drought stress in Arabidopsis thaliana

Abstract Plants respond to their environment by dynamically modulating gene expression. A powerful approach for understanding how these responses are regulated is to integrate information about cis-regulatory elements (CREs) into models called cis-regulatory codes. Transcriptional response to combined stress is typically not the sum of the responses to the individual stresses. However, cis-regulatory codes underlying combined stress response have not been established. Here we modeled transcriptional response to single and combined heat and drought stress in Arabidopsis thaliana. We grouped genes by their pattern of response (independent, antagonistic and synergistic) and trained machine learning models to predict their response using putative CREs (pCREs) as features (median F-measure = 0.64). We then developed a deep learning approach to integrate additional omics information (sequence conservation, chromatin accessibility and histone modification) into our models, improving performance by 6.2%. While pCREs important for predicting independent and antagonistic responses tended to resemble binding motifs of transcription factors associated with heat and/or drought stress, important synergistic pCREs resembled binding motifs of transcription factors not known to be associated with stress. These findings demonstrate how in silico approaches can improve our understanding of the complex codes regulating response to combined stress and help us identify prime targets for future characterization.

Azodi, Christina B.↗