Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “infectious diseases”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying impacts of contact tracing on HIV epidemiological inference from phylogenetic data

Abstract Robust sampling methods are foundational to inferences using phylogenies. Yet the impact of using contact tracing, a type of non-uniform sampling used in public health applications such as infectious disease outbreak investigations, has not been investigated in the molecular epidemiology field. To understand how contact tracing influences a recovered phylogeny, we developed a new simulation tool called SEEPS (Sequence Evolution and Epidemiological Process Simulator) that allows for the simulation of contact tracing and the resulting transmission tree, pathogen phylogeny, and corresponding virus genetic sequences. Importantly, SEEPS takes within-host evolution into account when generating pathogen phylogenies and sequences from transmission histories. Using SEEPS, we demonstrate that contact tracing can significantly impact the structure of the resulting tree, as described by popular tree statistics. Contact tracing generates phylogenies that are less balanced than the underlying transmission process, less representative of the larger epidemiological process, and affects the internal/external branch length ratios that characterize specific epidemiological scenarios. We also examined real data from a 2007–2008 Swedish HIV-1 outbreak and the broader 1998–2010 European HIV-1 epidemic to highlight the differences in contact tracing and expected phylogenies. Aided by SEEPS, we show that the data collection of the Swedish outbreak was strongly influenced by contact tracing even after downsampling, while the broader European Union epidemic showed little evidence of universal contact tracing, agreeing with the known epidemiological information about sampling and spread. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including possible non-uniform sampling schemes when examining phylogenetic trees. For that, SEEPS serves as a useful tool to evaluate such impacts, thereby facilitating better phylogenetic inferences of the characteristics of a disease outbreak. SEEPS is available at https://github.com/MolEvolEpid/SEEPS.

Virology↗
DOE OSTI2024

At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning

High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗
DOE OSTI2021

FL-DISCO: Federated Generative Adversarial Network for Graph-based Molecule Drug Discovery: Special Session Paper

The outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic emphasizes the importance of collaborative drug discovery for high effectiveness; however, due to the stringent data regulation, data privacy becomes an imminent issue needing to be addressed to enable collaborative drug discovery. In addition to the data privacy issue, the efficiency of drug discovery is another key objective since infectious diseases spread exponentially and effectively conducting drug discovery could save lives. Advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques are promising to solve these problems: (1) Federated Learning (FL) is born to keep data privacy while learning data from distributed clients; (2) graph neural network (GNN) can extract structural properties of molecules whose underlying architecture is the connected atoms; and (3) generative adversarial network (GAN) can generate novel molecules while retaining the properties learned from the training data. In this work, we make the first attempt to build a holistic collaborative and privacy-preserving FL framework, namely FL- DISCO, which integrates GAN and GNN to generate molecular graphs. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of FL- DISCO on: (1) IID data for ESOL and QM9, where FL-DISCO can generate highly novel compounds with high drug-likeliness, uniqueness and LogP scores compared to the baseline; (2) non- IID data for ESOL and QM9, where FL-DISCO generates 100% novel compounds with high validity and LogP scores compared to the baseline. We also demonstrate how different fractions of clients, generator and discriminator architectures affect our evaluation scores.

Manu, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting antimicrobial susceptibility from the bacterial genome: A new paradigm for one health resistance monitoring

The laboratory identification of antibacterial resistance is a cornerstone of infectious disease medicine. In vitro antimicrobial susceptibility testing has long been based on the growth response of organisms in pure culture to a defined concentration of antimicrobial agents. By comparing individual isolates to wild type susceptibility patterns, strains with acquired resistance can be identified. Acquired resistance can also be detected genetically. After many decades of research, the inventory of genes underlying antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is well known for several pathogenic genera including zoonotic enteric organisms such as Salmonella and Campylobacter and continues to grow substantially for others. With the decline in costs for large scale DNA sequencing, it is now practicable to characterize bacteria using whole genome sequencing (WGS), including the carriage of resistance genes in individual microorganisms and those present in complex biological samples. With genomics we can generate comprehensive, detailed information on the bacterium, the mechanisms of antibiotic resistance, clues to its source, and the nature of mobile DNA elements by which resistance spreads. These developments point to a new paradigm for antimicrobial resistance detection and tracking for both clinical and public health purposes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nonparametric Inference for the Reproductive Rate in Generalized Compartmental Models

We develop a tractable nonparametric model for the time-varying reproductive rate of infectious diseases that combines the structure of a deterministic compartmental model and a stochastic model for incidence data. We use Bayesian inference to estimate, with uncertainty, the reproductive rate of the Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in the U.S. states of California, Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, and Texas from January 2020 to March 2022. Employing the inferred reproductive rates, we estimate the posterior distribution of the time-varying reproduction numbers for each state. Compering the time-varying reproduction numbers across the states, we identify some epidemic waves, potentially driven from changes in human behavior and virus mutations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correcting for reporting delay: an example using dengue fever data

One complication to infectious disease forecasting efforts is delay in reporting of cases, where real-time data often under-report the true disease burden. This pair of R scripts (1) provides example code demonstrating several strategies to account for the reporting delay and improve disease forecasts and (2) applies these methods using publicly-available data on dengue fever case reporting in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009.

Joann VanDervort, Lauren↗
DOE OSTI2023

Outbreak analysis from case count and survey data

This code enables fitting a model of an infectious disease outbreak, customized for when available data is a combination of case counts and symptom survey responses. This is just a small bit of code being used only for a publication; we need to release it to fulfill a journal's requirement that our work be reproducible.

Goldberg, Emma↗
DOE OSTI2025

epicast_heterogeneity

Code supporting the paper "Why population heterogeneity matters for modelling infectious diseases"

Alexander, Scottie↗
DOE OSTI2020

Laboratory colonization by Dirofilaria immitis alters the microbiome of female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

Background: The ability of blood-feeding arthropods to successfully acquire and transmit pathogens of medical and veterinary importance has been shown to be interfered with, or enhanced by, the arthropod’s native microbiome. Mosquitoes transmit viruses, protozoan and filarial nematodes, the majority of which contribute to the 17% of infectious disease cases worldwide. Diroflaria immitis, a mosquito-transmitted filarial nematodes of dogs and cats, is vectored by several mosquito species including Aedes aegypti. Methods: In this study, we investigated the impact of D. immitis colonization on the microbiome of laboratory reared female Ae. aegypti. Metagenomic analysis of the V3–V4 variable region of the microbial 16S RNA gene was used for identification of the microbial differences down to species level. Results: We generated a total of 1068 OTUs representing 16 phyla, 181 genera and 271 bacterial species. Overall, in order of abundance, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria and Firmicutes were the most represented phylum with D. immitis-infected mosquitoes having more of Proteobacteria (71%) than uninfected mosquitoes (56.9%). An interesting finding in this study is the detection of Klebsiella oxytoca in relatively similar abundance in infected and uninfected mosquitoes, suggesting a possible endosymbiotic relationship, and has been previously shown to indirectly compete for nutrients with fungi on domestic housefly eggs and larvae. While D. immitis colonization has no effect on the overall species richness, we identified significant differences in the composition of selected bacterial genera and phyla between the two groups. We also reported distinct compositional and phylogenetic differences in the individual bacterial species when commonly identified bacteria were compared. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to understand the impact of a filarial infection on the microbiome of its mosquito vector. Further studies are required to identify bacteria species that could play an important role in the mosquito biology. While the microbiome composition of Ae. aegypti mosquito have been previously reported, our study shows that in an effort to establish itself, a filarial nematode modifies and alters the overall microbial diversity within its mosquito host.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast and accurate influenza forecasting in the United States with Inferno

Infectious disease forecasting is an emerging field and has the potential to improve public health through anticipatory resource allocation, situational awareness, and mitigation planning. By way of exploring and operationalizing disease forecasting, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted FluSight since the 2013/14 flu season, an annual flu forecasting challenge. Since FluSight’s onset, forecasters have developed and improved forecasting models in an effort to provide more timely, reliable, and accurate information about the likely progression of the outbreak. While improving the predictive performance of these forecasting models is often the primary objective, it is also important for a forecasting model to run quickly, facilitating further model development and improvement while providing flexibility when deployed in a real-time setting. In this vein I introduce Inferno, a fast and accurate flu forecasting model inspired by Dante, the top performing model in the 2018/19 FluSight challenge. When pseudoprospectively compared to all models that participated in FluSight 2018/19, Inferno would have placed 2nd in the national and regional challenge as well as the state challenge, behind only Dante. Inferno, however, runs in minutes and is trivially parallelizable, while Dante takes hours to run, representing a significant operational improvement with minimal impact to performance. Forecasting challenges like FluSight should continue to monitor and evaluate how they can be modified and expanded to incentivize the development of forecasting models that benefit public health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning approach to real-time HIV outbreak detection using genetic data

Pathogen genomic sequence data are increasingly made available for epidemiological monitoring. A main interest is to identify and assess the potential of infectious disease outbreaks. While popular methods to analyze sequence data often involve phylogenetic tree inference, they are vulnerable to errors from recombination and impose a high computational cost, making it difficult to obtain real-time results when the number of sequences is in or above the thousands. Here, we propose an alternative strategy to outbreak detection using genomic data based on deep learning methods developed for image classification. The key idea is to use a pairwise genetic distance matrix calculated from viral sequences as an image, and develop convolutional neutral network (CNN) models to classify areas of the images that show signatures of active outbreak, leading to identification of subsets of sequences taken from an active outbreak. We showed that our method is efficient in finding HIV-1 outbreaks with R0 ≥ 2.5, and overall a specificity exceeding 98% and sensitivity better than 92%. We validated our approach using data from HIV-1 CRF01 in Europe, containing both endemic sequences and a well-known dual outbreak in intravenous drug users. Our model accurately identified known outbreak sequences in the background of slower spreading HIV. Importantly, we detected both outbreaks early on, before they were over, implying that had this method been applied in real-time as data became available, one would have been able to intervene and possibly prevent the extent of these outbreaks. This approach is scalable to processing hundreds of thousands of sequences, making it useful for current and future real-time epidemiological investigations, including public health monitoring using large databases and especially for rapid outbreak identification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics

Accurate estimates of the incidence of infectious diseases are key for the control of epidemics. However, healthcare systems are often unable to test the population exhaustively, especially when asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases are widespread; this leads to significant and systematic under-reporting of the real incidence. Here, we propose a machine learning approach to estimate the incidence of a pandemic in real-time, using reported cases and the overall test rate. In particular, we use Bayesian symbolic regression to automatically learn the closed-form mathematical models that most parsimoniously describe incidence. We develop and validate our models using COVID-19 incidence values for nine different countries, confirming their ability to accurately predict daily incidence. Remarkably, despite the differences in epidemic trajectories and dynamics across countries, we find that a single model for all countries offers a more parsimonious description and is more predictive of actual incidence compared to separate models for each country. Our results show the potential to accurately model incidence in real-time using closed-form mathematical models, providing a valuable tool for public health decision-makers.

Fajardo-Fontiveros, Oscar (ORCID:0000000207058972)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Naegleria fowleri: Protein structures to facilitate drug discovery for the deadly, pathogenic free-living amoeba

Naegleria fowleri is a pathogenic, thermophilic, free-living amoeba which causes primary amebic meningoencephalitis (PAM). Penetrating the olfactory mucosa, the brain-eating amoeba travels along the olfactory nerves, burrowing through the cribriform plate to its destination: the brain’s frontal lobes. The amoeba thrives in warm, freshwater environments, with peak infection rates in the summer months and has a mortality rate of approximately 97%. A major contributor to the pathogen’s high mortality is the lack of sensitivity of N . fowleri to current drug therapies, even in the face of combination-drug therapy. To enable rational drug discovery and design efforts we have pursued protein production and crystallography-based structure determination efforts for likely drug targets from N . fowleri . The genes were selected if they had homology to drug targets listed in Drug Bank or were nominated by primary investigators engaged in N . fowleri research. In 2017, 178 N . fowleri protein targets were queued to the Seattle Structural Genomics Center of Infectious Disease (SSGCID) pipeline, and to date 89 soluble recombinant proteins and 19 unique target structures have been produced. Many of the new protein structures are potential drug targets and contain structural differences compared to their human homologs, which could allow for the development of pathogen-specific inhibitors. Five of the structures were analyzed in more detail, and four of five show promise that selective inhibitors of the active site could be found. The 19 solved crystal structures build a foundation for future work in combating this devastating disease by encouraging further investigation to stimulate drug discovery for this neglected pathogen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Correlating transcription and protein expression profiles of immune biomarkers following lipopolysaccharide exposure in lung epithelial cells

Universal and early recognition of pathogens occurs through recognition of evolutionarily conserved pathogen associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) by innate immune receptors and the consequent secretion of cytokines and chemokines. The intrinsic complexity of innate immune signaling and associated signal transduction challenges our ability to obtain physiologically relevant, reproducible and accurate data from experimental systems. One of the reasons for the discrepancy in observed data is the choice of measurement strategy. Immune signaling is regulated by the interplay between pathogen-derived molecules with host cells resulting in cellular expression changes. However, these cellular processes are often studied by the independent assessment of either the transcriptome or the proteome. Correlation between transcription and protein analysis is lacking in a variety of studies. In order to methodically evaluate the correlation between transcription and protein expression profiles associated with innate immune signaling, we measured cytokine and chemokine levels following exposure of human cells to the PAMP lipopolysaccharide (LPS) from the Gram-negative pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa . Expression of 84 messenger RNA (mRNA) transcripts and 69 proteins, including 35 overlapping targets, were measured in human lung epithelial cells. We evaluated 50 biological replicates to determine reproducibility of outcomes. Following pairwise normalization, 16 mRNA transcripts and 6 proteins were significantly upregulated following LPS exposure, while only five (CCL2, CSF3, CXCL5, CXCL8/IL8, and IL6) were upregulated in both transcriptomic and proteomic analysis. This lack of correlation between transcription and protein expression data may contribute to the discrepancy in the immune profiles reported in various studies. The use of multiomic assessments to achieve a systems-level understanding of immune signaling processes can result in the identification of host biomarker profiles for a variety of infectious diseases and facilitate countermeasure design and development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Longitudinal analysis of host protein serum signatures of treatment and recovery in pulmonary tuberculosis

A better understanding of treatment progression and recovery in pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) infectious disease is crucial. This study analyzed longitudinal serum samples from pulmonary TB patients undergoing interventional treatment to identify surrogate markers for TB-related outcomes. Serum that was collected at baseline and 8, 17, 26, and 52 weeks from 30 TB patients experiencing durable cure were evaluated and compared using a sensitive LC-MS/MS proteomic platform for the detection and quantification of differential host protein signatures relative to timepoint. The global proteome signature was analyzed for statistical differences across the time course and between disease severity and treatment groups. A total of 676 proteins showed differential expression in the serum over these timepoints relative to baseline. Comparisons to understand serum protein dynamics at 8 weeks, treatment endpoints at 17 and 26 weeks, and post-treatment at 52 weeks were performed. The largest protein abundance changes were observed at 8 weeks as the initial effects of antibiotic treatment strongly impacted inflammatory and immune modulated responses. However, the largest number of proteome changes was observed at the end of treatment time points 17 and 26 weeks respectively. Post-treatment 52-week results showed an abatement of differential proteome signatures from end of treatment, though interestingly those proteins uniquely significant at post-treatment were almost exclusively downregulated. Patients were additionally stratified based upon disease severity and compared across all timepoints, identifying 461 discriminating proteome signatures. These proteome signatures collapsed into discrete expression profiles with distinct pathways across immune activation and signaling, hemostasis, and metabolism annotations. Insulin-like growth factor (IGF) and Integrin signaling maintained a severity signature through 52 weeks, implying an intrinsic disease severity signature well into the post-treatment timeframe. Previous proteome studies have primarily focused on the 8-week timepoint in relation to culture conversion status. While this study confirms previous observations, it also highlights some differences. The inclusion of additional end of treatment and post-treatment time points offers a more comprehensive assessment of treatment progression within the serum proteome. Examining the expression dynamics at these later time periods will help in the investigation of relapse patients and has provided indicative markers of response and recovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don’t yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nanobody screening and machine learning guided identification of cross-variant anti-SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing heavy-chain only antibodies

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to persist, demonstrating the risks posed by emerging infectious diseases to national security, public health, and the economy. Development of new vaccines and antibodies for emerging viral threats requires substantial resources and time, and traditional development platforms for vaccines and antibodies are often too slow to combat continuously evolving immunological escape variants, reducing their efficacy over time. Previously, we designed a next-generation synthetic humanized nanobody (Nb) phage display library and demonstrated that this library could be used to rapidly identify highly specific and potent neutralizing heavy chain-only antibodies (HCAbs) with prophylactic and therapeutic efficacy in vivo against the original SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we used a combination of high throughput screening and machine learning (ML) models to identify HCAbs with potent efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 viral variants of interest (VOIs) and concern (VOCs). To start, we screened our highly diverse Nb phage display library against several pre-Omicron VOI and VOC receptor binding domains (RBDs) to identify panels of cross-reactive HCAbs. Using HCAb affinity for SARS-CoV-2 VOI and VOCs (pre-Omicron variants) and model features from other published data, we were able to develop a ML model that successfully identified HCAbs with efficacy against Omicron variants, independent of our experimental biopanning workflow. This biopanning informed ML approach reduced the experimental screening burden by 78% to 90% for the Omicron BA.5 and Omicron BA.1 variants, respectively. The combined approach can be applied to other emerging viruses with pandemic potential to rapidly identify effective therapeutic antibodies against emerging variants.

Antibodies↗