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NASA NTRS2020

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗

NASA NTRS2009

Developing Lightning Prediction Tools for the CCAFS Dual-Polarimetric Radar

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama Huntsville are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) to develop improved lightning prediction capabilities for the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar being acquired for use by 45WS and launch weather forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). In particular, these algorithms will focus on lightning onset, cessation and combined lightning-radar applications for convective winds assessment. Research using radar reflectivity (Z) data for prediction of lightning onset has been extensively discussed in the literature and subsequently applied by launch weather forecasters as it pertains to lightning nowcasting. Currently the forecasters apply a relatively straight forward but effective temperature-Z threshold algorithm for assessing the likelihood of lightning onset in a given storm. In addition, a layered VIL above the freezing level product is used as automated guidance for the onset of lightning. Only limited research and field work has been conducted on lightning cessation using Z and vertically-integrated Z for determining cessation. Though not used operationally vertically-integrated Z (basis for VIL) has recently shown promise as a tool for use in nowcasting lightning cessation. The work discussed herein leverages and expands upon these and similar reflectivity-threshold approaches via the application/addition of over two decades of polarimetric radar research focused on distinct multi-parameter radar signatures of ice/mixed-phase initiation and ice-crystal orientation in highly electrified convective clouds. Specifically, our approach is based on numerous previous studies that have observed repeatable patterns in the behavior of the vertical hydrometeor column as it relates to the temporal evolution of differential reflectivity and depolarization (manifested in either LDR or p(sub hv)), development of in-situ mixed and ice phase microphysics, electric fields, and ensuing lightning in the sub-tropical/tropical convection typical of the southeastern U.S., Maritime Continent, and southwestern Amazon. The polarimetric signatures detected in this setting provide a basis for automated 3-D detection of hydrometeor types in fuzzy logic hydrometeor identification algorithms (HID). Our working hypothesis is that improvement in lightning onset warning lead time and specificity for a given storm, relative to application of a Z-threshold algorithm, should arise as a consequence of the ability of dual-polarimetric radar to unambiguously detect and identify (through HID algorithms) the updraft elevation of rain-water cores above the freezing level and subsequent onset of drop freezing, riming, and robust mixed phase processes leading to significant charge separation and lightning. This type of algorithm, though dependent on the quality of the polarimetric data should be less susceptible to variable Z-calibration that can impact a given Z-threshold approach. To facilitate development of the algorithm while the 45WS dual-pol radar is in its current test stages and to evaluate the impact of polarimetric data quality (e.g., modified scan parameters and sampling) on the ensuing algorithms, we are using the ARMOR C-band dual-pol radar in Huntsville combined with N. Alabama LMA data and ARMOR HID algorithms [NCAR algorithm modified for application at C-band] in a testbed fashion. For lightning cessation we are revisiting the application of differential propagation phase variables for the monitoring of ice crystal alignment driven by in-cloud electric fields combined with metrics of ice water path (i.e., vertically integrated reflectivity). Importantly it should be noted that this approach is still very much a research topic and as such, we will explore operational applications that involve radar frequencies other than C-Band by using the UAH MAX X-band dual-pol radar in slow staring modes.

Petersen, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Impact of Sensor Degradation on the MODIS NDVI Time Series

Time series of satellite data provide unparalleled information on the response of vegetation to climate variability. Detecting subtle changes in vegetation over time requires consistent satellite-based measurements. Here, we evaluated the impact of sensor degradation on trend detection using Collection 5 data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on the Terra and Aqua platforms. For Terra MODIS, the impact of blue band (Band 3, 470nm) degradation on simulated surface reflectance was most pronounced at near-nadir view angles, leading to a 0.001-0.004/yr decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) under a range of simulated aerosol conditions and surface types. Observed trends MODIS NDVI over North America were consistent with simulated results, with nearly a threefold difference in negative NDVI trends derived from Terra (17.4%) and Aqua (6.7%) MODIS sensors during 2002-2010. Planned adjustments to Terra MODIS calibration for Collection 6 data reprocessing will largely eliminate this negative bias in NDVI trends over vegetation.

Wang, Dongdong↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Impact of Assimilating Precipitation-affected Radiance on Cloud and Precipitation in Goddard WRF-EDAS Analyses

High-frequency TMI and AMSR-E radiances, which are sensitive to precipitation over land, are assimilated into the Goddard Weather Research and Forecasting Model- Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRF-EDAS) for a few heavy rain events over the continental US. Independent observations from surface rainfall, satellite IR brightness temperatures, as well as ground-radar reflectivity profiles are used to evaluate the impact of assimilating rain-sensitive radiances on cloud and precipitation within WRF-EDAS. The evaluations go beyond comparisons of forecast skills and domain-mean statistics, and focus on studying the cloud and precipitation features in the jointed rainradiance and rain-cloud space, with particular attentions on vertical distributions of height-dependent cloud types and collective effect of cloud hydrometers. Such a methodology is very helpful to understand limitations and sources of errors in rainaffected radiance assimilations. It is found that the assimilation of rain-sensitive radiances can reduce the mismatch between model analyses and observations by reasonably enhancing/reducing convective intensity over areas where the observation indicates precipitation, and suppressing convection over areas where the model forecast indicates rain but the observation does not. It is also noted that instead of generating sufficient low-level warmrain clouds as in observations, the model analysis tends to produce many spurious upperlevel clouds containing small amount of ice water content. This discrepancy is associated with insufficient information in ice-water-sensitive radiances to address the vertical distribution of clouds with small amount of ice water content. Such a problem will likely be mitigated when multi-channel multi-frequency radiances/reflectivity are assimilated over land along with sufficiently accurate surface emissivity information to better constrain the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometers.

WRF-EDAS Analyses↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Impact of Current and Future Polar Orbiting Satellite Data on Numerical Weather Prediction at NASA/GSFC

The lack of adequate observational data continues to be recognized as a major factor limiting both atmospheric research and numerical prediction on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Since the advent of meteorological satellites in the 1960's, a considerable research effort has been directed toward the design of space-borne meteorological sensors, the development of optimal methods for the utilization of these data, (and an assessment of the influence of existing satellite data and the potential influence of future satellite observations on numerical weather prediction. This has included both Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). OSEs are conducted to evaluate the impact of specific observations or classes of observations on analyses and forecasts. While OSEs are performed with existing data, OSSEs are conducted to evaluate the potential for future observing systems to improve-NWP, as well as to evaluate trade-offs in observing system design, and to develop and test improved methods for data assimilation. At the conference, results from OSEs to evaluate satellite data sets that have recently become available to the global observing system, such as AIRS and Seawinds, and results from OSSEs to determine the potential impact of space-based lidar winds will be presented.

Atlas, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Comprehensive Structural Dynamic Analysis Approach for Multi Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) Development

The anticipated NASA Mars Sample Return Mission (MSR) requires a simple and reliable method in which to return collected Martian samples back to earth for scientific analysis. The Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) is NASA's proposed solution to this MSR requirement. Key aspects of the MMEEV are its reliable and passive operation, energy absorbing foam-composite structure, and modular impact sphere (IS) design. To aid in the development of an EEV design that can be modified for various missions requirements, two fully parametric finite element models were developed. The first model was developed in an explicit finite element code and was designed to evaluate the impact response of the vehicle and payload during the final stage of the vehicle's return to earth. The second model was developed in an explicit code and was designed to evaluate the static and dynamic structural response of the vehicle during launch and reentry. In contrast to most other FE models, built through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) pre-processor, the current model was developed using a coding technique that allows the analyst to quickly change nearly all aspects of the model including: geometric dimensions, material properties, load and boundary conditions, mesh properties, and analysis controls. Using the developed design tool, a full range of proposed designs can quickly be analyzed numerically and thus the design trade space for the EEV can be fully understood. An engineer can then quickly reach the best design for a specific mission and also adapt and optimize the general design for different missions.

Perino, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1975

ECASTAR methodology

The methodology used for the ECASTAR study was described. A systems approach was utilized, in conjunction with the following tools: input/output economic analysis, net economics, and net energetics. Some of the considerations between the objective of ECASTAR, which is to assess the potential for and impacts of various energy conservation actions, were listed. These include: data base, constraints and criteria, identification and classification of energy conservation actions, relationship between actions of the conservation sector and requirements of other sectors, evaluation of actions with respect to constraints and criteria, evaluation of impacts of energy conservation actions, and presentation of the results. Each one of these topics was discussed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2014

Temporal Changes in Left Ventricular Mechanics: Impact of Bed Rest and Exercise

The use of more sensitive and specific echocardiographic techniques such as speckle tracking imaging may address the current limitations of conventional cardiac imaging techniques to provide insight into the extent and time course of cardiac deconditioning following spaceflight or headdown tilt bed rest (HDTBR). METHODS Speckle tracking assessment of longitudinal, radial, and circumferential strain and twist was used to evaluate the impact of 70 days of HDTBR (n=7) and HDTBR + exercise (n=11) on temporal changes in LV mechanics. Echocardiograms were performed pre (BR‐2), during (BR31, 70), and following (BR+4hr) HDTBR. Repeated measures ANOVA was used to evaluate the effect of HDTBR on cardiac variables in control and exercise subjects. RESULTS After sedentary HDTBR, longitudinal (‐19.0 +/- 1.8% vs. ‐14.9 +/- 2.4%) and radial (15.0 +/- 1.9% vs. 11.3 +/- 2.2%) strain and twist (18.0 +/- 4.0deg vs. 17.0 +/- 3.6deg) were significantly impaired. In contrast, exercise preserved LV mechanics, and there were non‐significant improvements from BR‐2 to BR70 in longitudinal strain (‐18.7 +/- 1.5% vs. ‐20.4 +/- 2.7%), radial strain (13.2 +/- 2.4% vs. 14.2 +/- 1.6%), and twist (16.3 +/- 3.6deg vs. 18.6 +/- 5.9deg). CONCLUSIONS Using speckle tracking echocardiography provides important new insights into temporal changes in LV mechanics during disuse and exercise training.

Scott, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Empirical Analysis of Impact of Alliances on Airline Operations

Airline alliances are dominating the current air transport industry with the largest carriers of the world belonging to one of the four alliance groupings - "Wings", Star Alliance, one world, SkyTeam - which represent 56% of world Revenue Passenger Kilometers. Although much research has been carried out to evaluate the impact of alliance membership on performance of airlines, it would be of interest to ascertain the degree of impact perceived by participating airlines in alliances. It is the purpose of this paper to gather the opinion of all the airlines, belonging to the four global alliance groupings on the impact alliances have had on their traffic and on their performance in general To achieve this, a comprehensive survey of the alliance management departments of airlines participating in the four global strategic alliances was carried out. With this framework the survey has examined which type of cooperation among carriers (FFP, Code Share, Strategic Alliance without antitrust immunity, Strategic Alliance with antitrust immunity) has produced the most positive impact on traffic and which type of route (short haul, long haul, hub-hub, hub-non hub, non hub-non hub) has been mostly affected. In addition, the respondent airlines quantified the effect alliances have had on specific areas of their operation, such as load factors, traffic, costs, revenue and fares. Their responses have been analysed under each global alliances grouping, under airline and under geographic region to establish which group, type of carrier and geographic region has benefited most. The results show that each of the four global alliances groupings has experienced different results according to the type of collaboration agreed amongst their member airlines.

Iatrou, Kostas↗

NASA NTRS2000

Hall Effect Thruster Plume Contamination and Erosion Study

The objective of the Hall effect thruster plume contamination and erosion study was to evaluate the impact of a xenon ion plume on various samples placed in the vicinity of a Hall effect thruster for a continuous 100 hour exposure. NASA Glenn Research Center was responsible for the pre- and post-test evaluation of three sample types placed around the thruster: solar cell cover glass, RTV silicone, and Kapton(R). Mass and profilometer), were used to identify the degree of deposition and/or erosion on the solar cell cover glass, RTV silicone, and Kapton@ samples. Transmittance, reflectance, solar absorptance, and room temperature emittance were used to identify the degree of performance degradation of the solar cell cover glass samples alone. Auger spectroscopy was used to identify the chemical constituents found on the surface of the exposed solar cell cover glass samples. Chemical analysis indicated some boron nitride contamination on the samples, from boron nitride insulators used in the body of the thruster. However, erosion outweighted contamination. All samples exhibited some degree of erosion. with the most erosion occurring near the centerline of the plume and the least occurring at the +/- 90 deg positions. For the solar cell cover glass samples, erosion progressed through the antireflective coating and into the microsheet glass itself. Erosion occurred in the solar cell cover glass, RTV silicone and Kapton(R) at different rates. All optical properties changed with the degree of erosion, with solar absorptance and room temperature emittance increasing with erosion. The transmittance of some samples decreased while the reflectance of some samples increased and others decreased. All results are consistent with an energetic plume of xenon ions serving as a source for erosion.

Jaworske, Donald A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Jet Engine Bird Ingestion Simulations: Comparison of Rotating to Non-Rotating Fan Blades

Bird strike events in commercial airliners are a fairly common occurrence. According to data collected by the US Department of Agriculture, over 80,000 bird strikes were reported in the period 1990 to 2007 in the US alone (Ref. 1). As a result, bird ingestion is an important factor in aero engine design and FAA certification. When it comes to bird impacts on engine fan blades, the FAA requires full-scale bird ingestion tests on an engine running at full speed to pass certification requirements. These rotating tests are complex and very expensive. To reduce development costs associated with new materials for fan blades, it is desirable to develop more cost effective testing procedures than full-scale rotating engine tests for material evaluation. An impact test on a nonrotating single blade that captures most of the salient physics of the rotating test would go a long way towards enabling large numbers of evaluative material screening tests. NASA Glenn Research Center has been working to identify a static blade test procedure that would be effective at reproducing similar results as seen in rotating tests. The current effort compares analytical simulations of a bird strike on various non-rotating blades to a bird strike simulation on a rotating blade as a baseline case. Several different concepts for simulating the rotating loads on a non-rotating blade were analyzed with little success in duplicating the deformation results seen in the rotating case. The rotating blade behaves as if it were stiffer than the non-rotating blade resulting in less plastic deformation from a given bird impact. The key factor limiting the success of the non-rotating blade simulations is thought to be the effect of gyroscopics. Prior to this effort, it was anticipated the difficulty would be in matching the prestress in the blade due to centrifugal forces Additional work is needed to verify this assertion, and to determine if a static test procedure can simulate the gyroscopic effects in a suitable manner. This paper describes the various non-rotating concepts analyzed, and demonstrates the effect believed to be gyroscopic in nature on the results

Howard, Samuel A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Surface Pressure Dependencies in the Geos-Chem-Adjoint System and the Impact of the GEOS-5 Surface Pressure on CO2 Model Forecast

In the GEOS-Chem Adjoint (GCA) system, the total (wet) surface pressure of the GEOS meteorology is employed as dry surface pressure, ignoring the presence of water vapor. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) research team has been evaluating the impact of the above discrepancy on the CO2 model forecast and the CO2 flux inversion. The JPL CMS research utilizes a multi-mission assimilation framework developed by the Multi-Mission Observation Operator (M2O2) research team at JPL extending the GCA system. The GCA-M2O2 framework facilitates mission-generic 3D and 4D-variational assimilations streamlining the interfaces to the satellite data products and prior emission inventories. The GCA-M2O2 framework currently integrates the GCA system version 35h and provides a dry surface pressure setup to allow the CO2 model forecast to be performed with the GEOS-5 surface pressure directly or after converting it to dry surface pressure.

Carbon Monitoring System↗

NASA NTRS2016

Surface Pressure Dependencies in the GEOS-Chem-Adjoint System and the Impact of the GEOS-5 Surface Pressure on CO2 Model Forecast

Lee, Meemong↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Role of the SO2 Radiative Effect in Sustaining the Volcanic Winter and Soothing the Toba Impact on Climate

Volcanic eruptions are an important climate driver. The impact of Pinatubo-sized eruptions has been observed and is well constrained. The magnitude and duration of volcanic winter effects after super-eruptions such as Toba remain disputed due to disagreement between the strong cooling predicted by models, and much milder climate perturbations according to the paleo data. Here we present a re-evaluated climate impact of a Toba-sized super-eruption based on up-to-date GISS ModelE simulations. In this study, we account for all known primary mechanisms that govern the evolution of the volcanic plume and their nonlinear interactions. The SO2 radiative effects are evaluated for the first time in coupled climate simulations with the interactive atmospheric chemistry module. We found that SO2 effects on photochemistry, dynamics, and radiative forcing are especially prominent. Due to strong absorption in ultraviolet, SO2 feedback on photochemistry partially offsets the limiting effect associated with aerosol microphysical processes. SO2 greenhouse warming soothes the radiative cooling exerted by sulfate aerosols. SO2 absorption in the shortwave and longwave causes radiative heating and lofting of the volcanic plume, and boosts the efficiency of SO2 impact on photochemistry. Our analysis shows that SO2 lifetime and magnitude of effects scale up and increase with the amount of emitted material. For a Pinatubo-sized eruption, SO2 feedbacks on chemistry and dynamics are relevant only during the initial stage of the volcanic plume evolution, while local SO2 concentrations are high. For a Toba-sized eruption, SO2 effects are as important as sulfate aerosols, and produce a less extreme volcanic winter.

Sergey Osipov↗

NASA NTRS2013

Jet Engine Bird Ingestion Simulations: Comparison of Rotating to Non-Rotating Fan Blades

Bird strike events in commercial airliners are a fairly common occurrence. According to data collected by the US Department of Agriculture, over 80,000 bird strikes were reported in the period 1990-2007 in the US alone [1]. As a result, bird ingestion is an important factor in aero engine design and FAA certification. When it comes to bird impacts on engine fan blades, the FAA requires full-scale bird ingestion tests on an engine running at full speed to pass certification requirements. These rotating tests are complex and very expensive. To reduce development costs associated with new materials for fan blades, it is desirable to develop more cost effective testing procedures than full-scale rotating engine tests for material evaluation. An impact test on a non-rotating single blade that captures most of the salient physics of the rotating test would go a long way towards enabling large numbers of evaluative material screening tests. NASA Glenn Research Center has been working to identify a static blade test procedure that would be effective at reproducing similar results as seen in rotating tests. The current effort compares analytical simulations of a bird strike on various nonrotating blades to a bird strike simulation on a rotating blade as a baseline case. Several different concepts for simulating the rotating loads on a non-rotating blade were analyzed with little success in duplicating the deformation results seen in the rotating case. The rotating blade behaves as if it were stiffer than the non-rotating blade resulting in less plastic deformation from a given bird impact. The key factor limiting the success of the non-rotating blade simulations is thought to be the effect of gyroscopics. Prior to this effort, it was anticipated the difficulty would be in matching the pre-stress in the blade due to centrifugal forces Additional work is needed to verify this assertion, and to determine if a static test procedure can simulate the gyroscopic effects in a suitable manner. This paper describes the various non-rotating concepts analyzed, and demonstrates the effect believed to be gyroscopic in nature on the results.

Howard, Samuel A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Summary: Experimental validation of real-time fault-tolerant systems

Testing and validation of real-time systems is always difficult to perform since neither the error generation process nor the fault propagation problem is easy to comprehend. There is no better substitute to results based on actual measurements and experimentation. Such results are essential for developing a rational basis for evaluation and validation of real-time systems. However, with physical experimentation, controllability and observability are limited to external instrumentation that can be hooked-up to the system under test. And this process is quite a difficult, if not impossible, task for a complex system. Also, to set up such experiments for measurements, physical hardware must exist. On the other hand, a simulation approach allows flexibility that is unequaled by any other existing method for system evaluation. A simulation methodology for system evaluation was successfully developed and implemented and the environment was demonstrated using existing real-time avionic systems. The research was oriented toward evaluating the impact of permanent and transient faults in aircraft control computers. Results were obtained for the Bendix BDX 930 system and Hamilton Standard EEC131 jet engine controller. The studies showed that simulated fault injection is valuable, in the design stage, to evaluate the susceptibility of computing sytems to different types of failures.

Iyer, R. K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Analysis of Heat Rejection and Propellant Management Technologies for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Architectures

Cryogenic fluid management (CFM) technologies are very important for enabling a wider range of missions to utilize space nuclear propulsion (SNP) concepts such as nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP). Technologies for thermal and cryogenic propellant management allow for vehicles to take full advantage of the higher efficiency NTP systems for longer duration human interplanetary and deep space robotic missions. Currently, the CFM Portfolio Project at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is developing thermal and propellant management technologies needed for SNP. When developing these technologies, it is important to understand the sensitivities of key performance parameters (KPPs) at the system and overall mission level due to the ways the technologies interact with each other, other subsystems, and influence the overall vehicle. The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA-MSFC was tasked with building an integrated system model of a human Mars NTP mission to evaluate the impacts and sensitivities of CFM technologies on the overall vehicle and mission. This paper will cover the buildup of the model and highlight major sensitivities and breakpoints encountered, as well as future work in improving the existing models and sensitivities being evaluated.

Robert J. Hetterich↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Analysis of Heat Rejection and Propellant Management Technologies for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Architectures

Robert J Hetterich↗