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Results for “hierarchical models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Statistics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Methods and devices for preventing computationally explosive calculations in a computer for model parameters distributed on a hierarchy of geometric simplices

A computer-implemented method of preventing computationally explosive calculations. The method includes obtaining, by a processor of the computer, measured data of one of a physical process or a physical object; performing hierarchical numerical modeling of a physical process inclusive of an Earth model containing at least one of (a) infrastructure in the ground and (b) a formation feature in the ground, wherein predicted data is generated; comparing the measured data to the predicted data to calculate an estimated error; analyzing the estimated error via an inversion process to update the at least one of the Earth model and infrastructure model so as to reduce the estimated error and to determine a final composite Earth model of at least one of the infrastructure and the feature; and using the final composite Earth model to characterize at least one of the process and the physical object.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2020

A novel CMB component separation method: hierarchical generalized morphological component analysis

ABSTRACT We present a novel technique for cosmic microwave background (CMB) foreground subtraction based on the framework of blind source separation. Inspired by previous work incorporating local variation to generalized morphological component analysis (GMCA), we introduce hierarchical GMCA (HGMCA), a Bayesian hierarchical graphical model for source separation. We test our method on Nside = 256 simulated sky maps that include dust, synchrotron, free–free, and anomalous microwave emission, and show that HGMCA reduces foreground contamination by $25{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ over GMCA in both the regions included and excluded by the Planck UT78 mask, decreases the error in the measurement of the CMB temperature power spectrum to the 0.02–0.03 per cent level at ℓ > 200 (and $\lt 0.26{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for all ℓ), and reduces correlation to all the foregrounds. We find equivalent or improved performance when compared to state-of-the-art internal linear combination type algorithms on these simulations, suggesting that HGMCA may be a competitive alternative to foreground separation techniques previously applied to observed CMB data. Additionally, we show that our performance does not suffer when we perturb model parameters or alter the CMB realization, which suggests that our algorithm generalizes well beyond our simplified simulations. Our results open a new avenue for constructing CMB maps through Bayesian hierarchical analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2007

Modeling Tool Advances Rotorcraft Design

Continuum Dynamics Inc. (CDI), founded in 1979, specializes in advanced engineering services, including fluid dynamic modeling and analysis for aeronautics research. The company has completed a number of SBIR research projects with NASA, including early rotorcraft work done through Langley Research Center, but more recently, out of Ames Research Center. NASA Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) grants on helicopter wake modeling resulted in the Comprehensive Hierarchical Aeromechanics Rotorcraft Model (CHARM), a tool for studying helicopter and tiltrotor unsteady free wake modeling, including distributed and integrated loads, and performance prediction. Application of the software code in a blade redesign program for Carson Helicopters, of Perkasie, Pennsylvania, increased the payload and cruise speeds of its S-61 helicopter. Follow-on development resulted in a $24 million revenue increase for Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation, of Stratford, Connecticut, as part of the company's rotor design efforts. Now under continuous development for more than 25 years, CHARM models the complete aerodynamics and dynamics of rotorcraft in general flight conditions. CHARM has been used to model a broad spectrum of rotorcraft attributes, including performance, blade loading, blade-vortex interaction noise, air flow fields, and hub loads. The highly accurate software is currently in use by all major rotorcraft manufacturers, NASA, the U.S. Army, and the U.S. Navy.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale Modeling of Silicon Carbide Cladding for Nuclear Applications: Thermal Performance Modeling

The complex multiscale and anisotropic nature of silicon carbide (SiC) ceramic matrix composite (CMC) makes it difficult to accurately model its performance in nuclear applications. The existing models for nuclear grade composite SiC do not account for the microstructural features and how these features can affect the thermal and structural behavior of the cladding and its anisotropic properties. In addition to the microstructural features, the properties of individual constituents of the composites and fiber tow architecture determine the bulk properties. Models for determining the relationship between the individual constituents’ properties and the bulk properties of SiC composites for nuclear applications are absent, although empirical relationships exist in the literature. Here, a hierarchical multiscale modeling approach was presented to address this challenge. This modular approach addressed this difficulty by dividing the various aspects of the composite material into separate models at different length scales, with the evaluated property from the lower-length-scale model serving as an input to the higher-length-scale model. The multiscale model considered the properties of various individual constituents of the composite material (fiber, matrix, and interphase), the porosity in the matrix, the fiber volume fraction, the composite architecture, the tow thickness, etc. By considering inhomogeneous and anisotropic contributions intrinsically, our bottom-up multiscale modeling strategy is naturally physics-informed, bridging constitutive law from micromechanics to meso-mechanics and structural mechanics. The effects that these various physical attributes and thermo-physical properties have on the composite’s bulk thermal properties were easily evaluated and demonstrated through the various analyses presented herein. Since silicon carbide fiber-reinforced SiC CMCs are also promising thermal–structural materials with a broad range of high-end technology applications beyond nuclear applications, we envision that the multiscale modeling method we present here may prove helpful in future efforts to develop and construct reinforced CMCs and other advanced composite nuclear materials, such as MAX phase materials, that can service under harsh environments of ultrahigh temperatures, oxidation, corrosion, and/or irradiation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing and benchmarking the fidelity of posterior inference methods for astrophysics data analysis

In this era of large and complex astronomical survey data, interpreting, validating, and comparing inference techniques becomes increasingly difficult. This is particularly critical for emerging inference methods like Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), which offer significant speedup potential and posterior modeling flexibility, especially when deep learning is incorporated. We present a study to assess and compare the performance and uncertainty prediction capability of Bayesian inference algorithms – from traditional MCMC sampling of analytic functions to deep learning-enabled SBI. We focus on testing the capacity of hierarchical inference modeling in those scenarios. Before we extend this study to cosmology, we first use astrophysical simulation data to ensure interpretability. We demonstrate a probabilistic programming implementation of hierarchical and non-hierarchical Bayesian inference using simulations derived from the DeepBench software library, a benchmarking tool developed by our group that generates simple and controllable astrophysical objects from first principles. This study will enable astronomers and physicists to harness the inference potential of these methods with confidence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Multi-agent Large Language Model Reasoning for Autonomous Heterogeneous Catalyst Discovery

Artificial intelligence is reshaping scientific exploration, but most methods automate procedural tasks without engaging in scientific reasoning, limiting autonomy in discovery. We demonstrate that hierarchical agentic large language model reasoning can efficiently drive simulation and scientific exploration. Across two chemical applications, CO adsorption on Cu surface transition metal adatoms and on M–N–C catalysts, reasoning-guided exploration reduces required atomistic simulations by up to 90% relative to heuristic or random selection. Comparisons across single-agent, multi-agent, and stochastic baselines show that hierarchical strategies yield more coherent and information-efficient search trajectories. Reasoning traces reveal chemically grounded decisions that cannot be explained by semantic bias or stochastic sampling. We realize these agentic reasoning strategies in Materials Agents for Simulation and Theory in Electronic-structure Reasoning (MASTER), a multimodal system that translates natural language into density functional theory workflows. Altogether, multi-agent collaboration accelerates heterogeneous catalyst discovery and marks a step toward more autonomous, reasoning-guided scientific exploration.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2022

The eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS): The AGN catalog and its X-ray spectral properties

The eROSITA Final Equatorial Depth Survey (eFEDS), observed with eROSITA ahead of its planned 4-yr all-sky survey, is the largest contiguous-field X-ray survey at present. It yielded a large sample of X-ray sources with very rich multiband photometric and spectroscopic coverage. We present here the eFEDS active galactic nuclei (AGN) catalog and the eROSITA X-ray spectral properties of the eFEDS sources. Using a Bayesian method, we performed a systematic X-ray spectral analysis for all the eFEDS sources. We adopted multiple spectral models, including single-component power-law or hot-plasma models and double-component models of a power law plus soft excess. We investigated the capacity of eROSITA X-ray spectra for constraining AGN spectral shapes through a detailed analysis of the posterior parameter probability distribution functions. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling was used to recover the spectral parameter distribution of the sample. The source fluxes and luminosities were measured from the posterior of the spectral fitting. The eFEDS AGN catalog (22 079 sources) comprises ~80% of the eFEDS point sources. Despite a large number of faint sources, our spectral fitting provides reasonable measurements of spectral shapes and intrinsic luminosities for a majority of the sources. Because of sample selection bias, this AGN catalog is dominated by X-ray unobscured sources, with an obscured (logN H > 21.5) fraction of 8%; the power-law emission of the hot corona is also relatively soft, with a typical slope of 2.0. For type-I AGN, the X-ray emission is well correlated with the UV emission with the usual anticorrelation between the X-ray to UV spectral slope α OX and the UV luminosity. The X-ray spectral properties measured with various models are presented for all the eFEDS sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ecological connectivity and habitat loss shape patterns of genetic diversity in a threatened salamander

Context The maintenance of genetic diversity is essential for preserving adaptive potential in populations, yet it is increasingly threatened by landscape alteration. The field of landscape genetics offers a framework for assessing how patch-level landscape conditions, modeled at multiple scales, influence genetic diversity. Objectives We sought to assess how local environmental features and connectivity influence genetic diversity across 74 four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) breeding wetlands in the southeastern United States. Methods Using next-generation sequencing data and hierarchical Bayesian models, we examined genome-wide heterozygosity in relation to local landscape features and ecological connectivity. We also assessed the scale of effect of landscape features and tested for temporal lag effects. Results Genetic diversity was lower in wetlands with higher levels of historic deforestation and lower connectivity. An interaction between deforestation and connectivity indicated that deforestation had stronger negative effects in isolated wetlands but weaker effects in well-connected wetlands. Accounting for scale of effect and temporal lags was critical for detecting these relationships. Conclusions Our analyses highlight the importance of assessing the spatial scale (scale of effect) and temporal lag of landscape features to detect key drivers of genetic diversity. In line with population genetic theory, our results indicate that the genetic consequences of habitat loss do not affect populations uniformly and are most severe in isolated populations where gene flow cannot buffer against loss of diversity. Altogether, we highlight the importance of considering the interaction of habitat loss and connectivity in conservation genetic management.

Hemidactylium scutatum↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian inference of fiber orientation and polymer properties in short fiber-reinforced polymer composites

Herein we present a Bayesian methodology to infer the elastic modulus of the constituent polymer and the fiber orientation state in a short-fiber reinforced polymer composite (SFRP). The properties are inversely determined using only a few experimental tests. Developing composite manufacturing digital twins for SFRP composite processes, including injection molding and extrusion deposition additive manufacturing (EDAM) requires extensive experimental material characterization. In particular, characterizing the composite mechanical properties is time consuming and therefore, micromechanics models are used to fully identify the elasticity tensor. Hence, the objective of this paper is to infer the fiber orientation and the effective polymer modulus and therefore, identify the elasticity tensor of the composite with minimal experimental tests. To that end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model coupled with a micromechanics model to infer the fiber orientation and the polymer elastic modulus simultaneously which we then use to estimate the composite elasticity tensor. We motivate and demonstrate the methodology for the EDAM process but the development is such that it is applicable to other SFRP composites processed via other methods. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides a reliable framework for the inference, with as few as three tensile tests, while accounting for epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Posterior predictive checks show that the model is able to recreate the experimental data well. The ability of the Bayesian approach to calibrate the material properties and its associated uncertainties, make it a promising tool for enabling a probabilistic predictive framework for composites manufacturing digital twins.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1988

Graph-based real-time fault diagnostics

A real-time fault detection and diagnosis capability is absolutely crucial in the design of large-scale space systems. Some of the existing AI-based fault diagnostic techniques like expert systems and qualitative modelling are frequently ill-suited for this purpose. Expert systems are often inadequately structured, difficult to validate and suffer from knowledge acquisition bottlenecks. Qualitative modelling techniques sometimes generate a large number of failure source alternatives, thus hampering speedy diagnosis. In this paper we present a graph-based technique which is well suited for real-time fault diagnosis, structured knowledge representation and acquisition and testing and validation. A Hierarchical Fault Model of the system to be diagnosed is developed. At each level of hierarchy, there exist fault propagation digraphs denoting causal relations between failure modes of subsystems. The edges of such a digraph are weighted with fault propagation time intervals. Efficient and restartable graph algorithms are used for on-line speedy identification of failure source components.

Padalkar, S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Simultaneous global and local clustering in multiplex networks with covariate information

Understanding both global and layer-specific group structures is useful for uncovering complex patterns in networks with multiple interaction types. In this work, we introduce a new model, the hierarchical multiplex stochastic blockmodel, which simultaneously detects communities within individual layers of a multiplex network while inferring a global node clustering across the layers. A stochastic blockmodel is assumed in each layer, with probabilities of layer-level group memberships determined by a node’s global group assignment. Our model uses a Bayesian framework, employing a probit stick-breaking process to construct node-specific mixing proportions over a set of shared Griffiths–Engen–McCloseky distributions. These proportions determine layer-level community assignment, allowing for an unknown and varying number of groups across layers, while incorporating nodal covariate information to inform the global clustering. We propose a scalable variational inference procedure with parallelisable updates for application to large networks. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate our model’s ability to accurately recover both global and layer-level clusters in complicated settings, and applications to real data showcase the model’s effectiveness in uncovering interesting latent network structure.

community detection↗

DOE OSTI2021

Large-scale Gravitational Lens Modeling with Bayesian Neural Networks for Accurate and Precise Inference of the Hubble Constant

We investigate the use of approximate Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) in modeling hundreds of time delay gravitational lenses for Hubble constant (H 0 ) determination. Here, our BNN was trained on synthetic Hubble Space Telescope quality images of strongly lensed active galactic nuclei with lens galaxy light included. The BNN can accurately characterize the posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of model parameters governing the elliptical power-law mass profile in an external shear field. We then propagate the BNN-inferred posterior PDFs into an ensemble H 0 inference, using simulated time delay measurements from a plausible dedicated monitoring campaign. Assuming well-measured time delays and a reasonable set of priors on the environment of the lens, we achieve a median precision of 9.3% per lens in the inferred H 0 . A simple combination of a set of 200 test lenses results in a precision of 0.5 km s –1 Mpc –1 (0.7%), with no detectable bias in this H 0 recovery test. The computation time for the entire pipeline—including the generation of the training set, BNN training and H0 inference—translates to 9 minutes per lens on average for 200 lenses and converges to 6 minutes per lens as the sample size is increased. Being fully automated and efficient, our pipeline is a promising tool for exploring ensemble-level systematics in lens modeling for H 0 inference.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Aerosol Model Benchmarking Repository: A toolkit for model intercomparison

The Aerosol Model Benchmarking Repository and Standards (AMBRS) project was initiated to provide tools and to establish community standards for benchmarking aerosol models. This report describes a set of open-source tools for building, running, and analyzing aerosol box model simulations in a standardized framework. The framework consists of three core components: AMBuilder, a CMake-based build system that compiles supported models consistently; AMBRS, a Python module that defines unified numerical experiments and executes them with aligned inputs; and PyParticle, an aerosol analysis package that standardizes output, computes diagnostics, and visualizes simulation results. Together, these tools enable reproducible intercomparison of aerosol schemes and support process-level evaluation of how model simplifications affect predictions of size distributions, cloud condensation nuclei activity, and other relevant properties relevant for the Earth-Energy system. Beyond its role in benchmarking, AMBRS provides a platform for studying aerosol processes across scales and can be used to generate training data for AI/ML applications in support of a broader hierarchical aerosol modeling strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Bayesian Inverse Problems: A High-Dimensional Statistics Viewpoint

This paper analyzes hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems using techniques from highdimensional statistics. Furthermore, our analysis leverages a property of hierarchical Bayesian regularizers that we call approximate decomposability to obtain non-asymptotic bounds on the reconstruction error attained by maximum a posteriori estimators. The new theory explains how hierarchical Bayesian models that exploit sparsity, group sparsity, and sparse representations of the unknown parameter can achieve accurate reconstructions in high-dimensional settings.

MAP estimation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗

NASA NTRS2017

Automated Analysis of Stateflow Models

Stateflow is a widely used modeling framework for embedded and cyber physical systems where control software interacts with physical processes. In this work, we present a framework a fully automated safety verification technique for Stateflow models. Our approach is two-folded: (i) we faithfully compile Stateflow models into hierarchical state machines, and (ii) we use automated logic-based verification engine to decide the validity of safety properties. The starting point of our approach is a denotational semantics of State flow. We propose a compilation process using continuation-passing style (CPS) denotational semantics. Our compilation technique preserves the structural and modal behavior of the system. The overall approach is implemented as an open source toolbox that can be integrated into the existing Mathworks Simulink Stateflow modeling framework. We present preliminary experimental evaluations that illustrate the effectiveness of our approach in code generation and safety verification of industrial scale Stateflow models.

Stateflow↗