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At least 217 records · Page 12

Modeling Imperfect Generator Behavior in Power System Operation Models

A key component in power system operations is the use of computer models to quickly study and analyze different operating conditions and futures in an efficient manner. The output of these models are sensitive to the data used in them as well as the assumptions made during their execution. One typical assumption is that generators and load assets perfectly follow operator control signals. While this is a valid simulation assumption, generators may not always accurately follow control signals. This imperfect response of generators could impact cost and reliability metrics. This paper proposes a generator model that capture this imperfect behavior and examines its impact on production costs and reliability metrics using a steady-state power system operations model. Preliminary analysis shows that while costs remain relatively unchanged, there could be significant impacts on reliability metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

COMGEN: A computer program for generating finite element models of composite materials at the micro level

COMGEN (Composite Model Generator) is an interactive FORTRAN program which can be used to create a wide variety of finite element models of continuous fiber composite materials at the micro level. It quickly generates batch or session files to be submitted to the finite element pre- and postprocessor PATRAN based on a few simple user inputs such as fiber diameter and percent fiber volume fraction of the composite to be analyzed. In addition, various mesh densities, boundary conditions, and loads can be assigned easily to the models within COMGEN. PATRAN uses a session file to generate finite element models and their associated loads which can then be translated to virtually any finite element analysis code such as NASTRAN or MARC.

Melis, Matthew E.↗

Modeling Flexible Generator Operating Regions via Chance- constrained Stochastic Unit Commitment

Here, we introduce a novel chance-constrained stochastic unit commitment model to address uncertainty in renewables' production uncertainty in power systems operation. For most thermal generators,underlying technical constraints that are universally treated as "hard" by deterministic unit commitment models are in fact based on engineering judgments, such that system operators can periodically request operation outside these limits in non-nominal situations, e.g., to ensure reliability. We incorporate this practical consideration into a chance-constrained stochastic unit commitment model, specifically by in-frequently allowing minor deviations from the minimum and maximum thermal generator power output levels. We demonstrate that an extensive form of our model is computationally tractable for medium-sized power systems given modest numbers of scenarios for renewables' production. We show that the model is able to potentially save significant annual production costs by allowing infrequent and controlled violation of the traditionally hard bounds imposed on thermal generator production limits. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of optimal solutions to our model under two restricted regimes and observe similar qualitative results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty

This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series, including a truncated-normal distribution model, a state-space based Markov model, a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and a stochastic-optimization based model. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets, used for variable generation integration studies. A comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics. This paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.

Lu, Ning↗

Generating Solid Models from Topographical Data

A method of generating solid models of terrain involves the conversion of topographical data into a form useable by a rapid-prototyping (RP) machine. The method was developed to enable the use of the RP machine to make solid models of Martian terrain from Mars Orbiter laser-altimeter topographical data. The method is equally applicable to the generation of models of the terrains of other astronomical bodies, including other planets, asteroids, and Earth. Topographical data describe a terrain in terms of a set of three-dimensional coordinates [e.g., Cartesian (x,y,z) or polar (latitude, longitude, radius) coordinates] of points or nodes on the terrain surface. The input data for the RP machines are required to provide a three-dimensional description, not of a single surface, but of a volume in this case, a ground volume that underlies the terrain surface. The description is required to be in the form of triangular elements that connect the nodes of all the surfaces and that completely bound the volume, with no open areas, no overlap of triangles, and no extraneous geometric elements. The software used in the present model-generation method was written in IDL - an advanced programming language that affords a number of tools, including subroutines that triangularize surfaces. The software creates a volume from the topographical surface data by adding sides to the edges of the terrain surface and joining the sides with a bottom surface. Each of the sides is triangularized by use of IDL subroutines, and then the software searches for extraneous elements and removes them. Topographical data are usually presented in a grid corresponding to polar coordinates, so that a model generated from such data is equivalent to a topographical map in Mercator projection. However an RP machine is fully capable of including the curvature of a planetary body in a model that it makes. Therefore, the software also offers a capability to transform the topographical data to a projection onto a surface having a curvature corresponding to that of the surface of the modeled planet.

Keller, John W.↗

CaloScore v2: single-shot calorimeter shower simulation with diffusion models

Diffusion generative models are promising alternatives for fast surrogate models, producing high-fidelity physics simulations. However, the generation time often requires an expensive denoising process with hundreds of function evaluations, restricting the current applicability of these models in a realistic setting. In this work, we report updates on the CaloScorearchitecture, detailing the changes in the diffusion process, which produces higher quality samples, and the use of progressive distillation, resulting in a diffusion model capable of generating new samples with a single function evaluation. Here we demonstrate these improvements using the Calorimeter Simulation Challenge 2022 dataset.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Solid Model Geometry Generator (SMGG)

The Solid Model Geometry Generator (SMGG) system provides the capacity to model complex solid objects through the composition of primitive parts. The parts are specified through input of dimension and orientation parameters. The parts may later be edited, the model may be displayed (through a variety of display options), and the resulting geometry formatted for subsequent analysis. The SMGG system was originally constructed for use in the preliminary stages of space station and other spacecraft design. Because the system models a design through the use of basic shapes common to many solid objects and provides limited capabilities for producing irregularly shaped parts, it can be used for a variety of applications. Currently, seven primitive parts may be specified and produced through SMGG. These include boxes, spheres, cones, paraboloids, tori, and translationally or rotationally swept parts. Each part may be specified by the user through input of basic part dimensions and a local orientation. For example, a box is specified by its length, width, height and orientation in space (rotation, translation, and scaling).

Jones, K. H.↗

Integrated performance and reliability specification for digital avionics systems

This paper describes an automated tool for performance and reliability assessment of digital avionics systems, called the Automated Design Tool Set (ADTS). ADTS is based on an integrated approach to design assessment that unifies traditional performance and reliability views of system designs, and that addresses interdependencies between performance and reliability behavior via exchange of parameters and result between mathematical models of each type. A multi-layer tool set architecture has been developed for ADTS that separates the concerns of system specification, model generation, and model solution. Performance and reliability models are generated automatically as a function of candidate system designs, and model results are expressed within the system specification. The layered approach helps deal with the inherent complexity of the design assessment process, and preserves long-term flexibility to accommodate a wide range of models and solution techniques within the tool set structure. ADTS research and development to date has focused on development of a language for specification of system designs as a basis for performance and reliability evaluation. A model generation and solution framework has also been developed for ADTS, that will ultimately encompass an integrated set of analytic and simulated based techniques for performance, reliability, and combined design assessment.

Brehm, Eric W.↗

RockFlow: Fast Generation of Synthetic Source Rock Images Using Generative Flow Models

Image-based evaluation methods are a valuable tool for source rock characterization. The time and resources needed to obtain images has spurred development of machine-learning generative models to create synthetic images of pore structure and rock fabric from limited image data. While generative models have shown success, existing methods for generating 3D volumes from 2D training images are restricted to binary images and grayscale volume generation requires 3D training data. Shale characterization relies on 2D imaging techniques such as scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and grayscale values carry important information about porosity, kerogen content, and mineral composition of the shale. Here, we introduce RockFlow, a method based on generative flow models that creates grayscale volumes from 2D training data. We apply RockFlow to baseline binary micro-CT image volumes and compare performance to a previously proposed model. We also show the extension of our model to 2D grayscale data by generating grayscale image volumes from 2D SEM and dual modality nanoscale shale images. The results show that our method underestimates the porosity and surface area on the binary baseline datasets but is able to generate realistic grayscale image volumes for shales. With improved binary data preprocessing, we believe that our model is capable of generating synthetic porous media volumes for a very broad class of rocks from shale to carbonates to sandstone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Generative AI models for learning flow maps of stochastic dynamical systems in bounded domains

Simulating stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in bounded domains, presents significant computational challenges due to particle exit phenomena, which requires accurate modeling of interior stochastic dynamics and boundary interactions. Despite the success of machine learning-based methods in learning SDEs, existing learning methods are not applicable to SDEs in bounded domains because they cannot accurately capture the particle exit dynamics. We present a unified hybrid data-driven approach that combines a conditional diffusion model with an exit prediction neural network to capture both interior stochastic dynamics and boundary exit phenomena. Our ML model consists of two major components: a neural network that learns exit probabilities using binary cross-entropy loss with rigorous convergence guarantees, and a training-free diffusion model that generates state transitions for non-exiting particles using closed-form score functions. The two components are integrated through a probabilistic sampling algorithm that determines particle exit at each time step and generates appropriate state transitions. Here, the performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via three test cases: a one-dimensional simplified problem for theoretical verification, a two-dimensional advection-diffusion problem in a bounded domain, and a three-dimensional problem of interest to magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

Bounded domains↗

A point process model for generating biofilms with realistic microstructure and rheology

Biofilms are communities of bacteria that exhibit a multitude of multiscale biomechanical behaviours. Recent experimental advances have led to characterisations of these behaviours in terms of measurements of the viscoelastic moduli of biofilms grown in bioreactors and the fracture and fragmentation properties of biofilms. These properties are macroscale features of biofilms; however, a previous work by our group has shown that heterogeneous microscale features are critical in predicting biofilm rheology. In this paper, we use tools from statistical physics to develop a generative statistical model of the positions of bacteria in biofilms. Specifically, the model is a type of pairwise interaction model (PIM). We show through simulation that the macroscopic mechanical properties of biofilms depend on the choice of microscale spatial model. A key finding is that uniform and non-uniform sets of points lead to differing mechanical properties. This distinction appears not to have been previously considered in mathematical biofilm literature. We also found that realisations of a biologically informed PIM have realistic in silico mechanical properties, and have statistical properties that closely match experimental data. We also note that a Poisson spatial point process of suitable number density also yields realistic mechanical properties, but that the spatial distribution of points does not reflect those occurring in our experimentally observed biofilm.

Mathematics↗

A modular biogeochemical modeling suite for next-generation ocean models (Final Report)

The Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) is a self-contained implementation of ocean biogeochemistry suitable for incorporation in Earth system models. The default configuration of MARBL represents multiple nutrient co-limitation (N, P, Si, and Fe), includes three explicit phytoplankton functional groups (diatoms, diazotrophs, and pico/nano phytoplankton), and one implicit group (calcifiers); there is one zooplankton group. MARBL includes fully prognostic carbonate chemistry and simulates sinking particulate organic matter implicitly, subject to ballasting by mineral dust, biogenic mineral carbonate and opal. MARBL represents subgrid-scale variations in light, variable C:P stoichiometry, semi-labile and refractory dissolved organic material pools, prognostic oceanic emission of ammonia, and an explicit ligand tracer that complexes iron. MARBL is fully runtime-configurable, and is flexible enough to accommodate a variable number of plankton functional types and ecosystem configurations. Critically, MARBL is implemented to be independent of any particular ocean general circulation model (OGCM); it is a standalone library that interfaces with an OGCM's via an explicit "driver" layer. MARBL can thus be coupled to multiple OGCM's, enabling efficient maintenance, development, and cross-model inter-comparison. MARBL is the ocean biogeochemistry component for the Community Earth System Model and the DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Updating the neutron electric dipole moment in a fourth generation standard model

A fourth generation of quarks, if it exists, may provide sufficient CP violation for the baryon asymmetry of the Universe. We estimate the neutron electric dipole moment in the presence of a fourth generation and find it would be dominated by the strange quark chromoelectric dipole moment, assuming it does not get wiped out by a Peccei-Quinn symmetry. Both the three electroweak loop and the two-loop electroweak/one-loop gluonic contributions are considered. With m{sub b'}, m{sub t'} at 500 GeV or so that can be covered at the LHC, and with a Jarlskog CP violation factor that is consistent with hints of New Physics in b{yields}s transitions, the neutron electric dipole moment is found around 10{sup -31}e cm, still far below the 10{sup -28}e cm reach of the new experiments being planned or under construction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Generative diffusion model surrogates for mechanistic agent-based biological models

Mechanistic, multicellular, agent-based models are commonly used to investigate tissue, organ, and organism-scale biology at single-cell resolution. The Cellular-Potts Model (CPM) is a powerful and popular framework for developing and interrogating these models. CPMs become computationally expensive at large space- and time- scales making application and investigation of developed models difficult. Surrogate models may allow for the accelerated evaluation of CPMs of complex biological systems. However, the stochastic nature of these models means each set of parameters may give rise to different model configurations, complicating surrogate model development. In this work, we leverage denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) to train a generative AI surrogate of a CPM used to investigate in vitro vasculogenesis. We describe the use of an image classifier to learn the characteristics that define unique areas of a 2-dimensional parameter space. We then apply this classifier to aid in surrogate model selection and verification. Our CPM model surrogate generates model configurations 20,000 timesteps ahead of a reference configuration and demonstrates approximately a 22x reduction in computational time as compared to native code execution. Our work represents a step towards the implementation of DDPMs to develop digital twins of stochastic biological systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Generation and analysis of large reliability models

An effort has been underway for several years at NASA's Langley Research Center to extend the capability of Markov modeling techniques for reliability analysis to the designers of highly reliable avionic systems. This effort has been focused in the areas of increased model abstraction and increased computational capability. The reliability model generator (RMG), a software tool which uses as input a graphical, object-oriented block diagram of the system, is discussed. RMG uses an automated failure modes-effects analysis algorithm to produce the reliability model from the graphical description. Also considered is the ASSURE software tool, a parallel processing program which uses the ASSIST modeling language and SURE semi-Markov solution technique. An executable failure modes-effects analysis is used by ASSURE. The successful combination of the power of graphical representation, automated model generation, and parallel computation leads to the conclusion that large system architectures can now be analyzed.

Aerospace electronics↗

Modeling Distributed Generation in California

In support of analysis for the biennial Integrated Energy Policy Report, the California Energy Commission and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have partnered to study the growth of distributed energy resources in California. This study involves the use of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Distributed Generation Market Demand model, available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/, to project statewide adoption of distributed photovoltaics and paired storage. Key outcomes of the collaboration include: • Improved representation of California building stock, load profiles, historical adoption, and tariffs, including the net billing tariff, in the dGen model; • Trained CEC staff members to use and adapt the dGen model for their specific needs; • Developed a methodology for representing emerging consumer segments to potentially adopt distributed energy resources, including low-income, multifamily, and renter-occupied buildings; • Forecasted solar photovoltaic and paired storage growth in California using a common set of modeling parameters. This report describes the multiyear effort, which includes a discussion of: • Methodology and data employed in adapting the Distributed Generation Market Demand model for California to forecast solar photovoltaic and storage statewide through 2040; • Steps taken to modify the base model to forecast solar photovoltaic adoption in emerging market segments such as multifamily or renter-occupied homes or both; • Future enhancements of the model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗