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At least 217 records · Page 12

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DOE OSTI2020

Combined Force-Frequency Sampling for Simulation of Systems Having Rugged Free Energy Landscapes.

An adaptive, machine learning-based sampling method is presented for simulation of systems having rugged, multidimensional free energy landscapes. The method's main strength resides in its ability to learn both from the frequency of visits to distinct states and the generalized force estimates that arise in a system as it evolves in phase space. This is accomplished by introducing a self-integrating artificial neural network, which generates an estimate of the free energy directly from its derivatives. The usefulness of the proposed combined approach is examined in the context of two concrete examples, namely, an alanine dipeptide molecule in water and a polymer diffusing through a narrow pore. This new method is found to be robust, faster, and more accurate than approaches that rely only on frequency-based or generalized force-based estimations. After combining the proposed approach with overfill protection and support for sparse data storage and training, the method is shown to be more effective than comparable, previously available techniques and capable of scaling efficiently to larger numbers of collective variables.

Sevgen, Emre↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tree damage and mortality measurements across seven ForestGEO plots in the tropics between Oct 2016 and Mar 2023

Annual records (raw data) on tree survival and structural completeness of 36,524 trees (2,467 species) collected across 29 censuses in seven tropical forests distributed across the Neotropics (Amacayacu, Colombia; Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panamá; Yasuní, Ecuador) and Asia (Fushan, Taiwan; Huai Kha Khaeng (HKK), Thailand; Khao Chong (KC), Thailand; Pasoh, Malaysia). This dataset was used to compare aboveground biomass loss via damage to living trees relative to total AGB loss (mortality + damage). Variable definitions: site: name of the ForestGEO plot stemID.ams: Unique ID for the stem in the annual mortality surveys (ams) treeID.ams: Unique ID for the tree in the ams date.full.census: date of the previous full census of the plot, format: YYYY-MM-DD dbh.full.census: diameter at the breast height (dbh in mm) measured during the previous full census of the plot home: height of measurement of dbh (in m) meanWD: species-level wood density (g cm-3) date.ams: date of the ams, format: YYYY-MM-DD status: survival status of the tree (A: alive; D: dead; NF: not found; "?": unknown) H_considering_damage: living length of the main axis in meters; provides an estimate of the amount of remaining living tissues along the main axis of the stem (e.g., the height of breakage or the height discounting wood decay) b: the remaining proportion of branch volume within the living length (b∈[0,1]). weights.ind: frequency of the [size class x species] bins within the forest plot relative to their frequency in the sample. Necessary to extrapolate estimates to the whole plot.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing LF/VLF Lightning Waveforms to Estimate D-region Electron Density Profiles

Lightning waveforms in the low frequency (LF; 30-300 kHz) and the very low frequency (VLF; 3-30 kHz) bands can be exploited to produce data-driven ionospheric D-region electron density profile (EDP) estimates with significantly higher spatial and temporal coverage than previously available. The lightning waveforms used in this paper are signals detected in the LF/VLF of negative cloud-to-ground lightning by the Earth Networks Total Lightning Detection Network. Each waveform contains a ground wave and a time-delayed ionospheric reflection. The time delay between the ground wave and ionospheric reflection has previously been used to estimate a single specular reflection altitude, where LF/VLF emissions are reflected by the ionosphere. Here, we expand upon previous methods to include filtering and spectral analysis, and account for oblique propagation to produce higher-order estimates for reflection altitudes and corresponding electron densities. Once estimated, reflection altitudes and corresponding electron densities can be used to derive parameters β and h’, which define an EDP for the D-region. In this study, the lightning waveform (LW) analysis is demonstrated using a single representative 24-hour dataset over the Southeast United States, and then extended to a total of 10 separate datasets with varying locations and ionospheric conditions. The LW-derived D-region EDPs are in agreement with predictions made by the Faraday International Reference Ionosphere model, and the LW EDPs β and h’ values are consistent with previous LF/VLF-derived estimates.

D-region ionosphere↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Simons Observatory: modeling optical systematics in the Large Aperture Telescope

We present geometrical and physical optics simulation results for the Simons Observatory Large Aperture Telescope. This work was developed as part of the general design process for the telescope, allowing us to evaluate the impact of various design choices on performance metrics and potential systematic effects. The primary goal of the simulations was to evaluate the final design of the reflectors and the cold optics that are now being built. We describe nonsequential ray tracing used to inform the design of the cold optics, including absorbers internal to each optics tube. We discuss ray tracing simulations of the telescope structure that allow us to determine geometries that minimize detector loading and mitigate spurious near-field effects that have not been resolved by the internal baffling. We also describe physical optics simulations, performed over a range of frequencies and field locations, that produce estimates of monochromatic far-field beam patterns, which in turn are used to gauge general optical performance. Finally, we describe simulations that shed light on beam sidelobes from panel gap diffraction.

Gudmundsson, Jon E. (ORCID:0000000317600355)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative assessment of Distributed Acoustic Sensing at the Source Physics Experiment, Phase II

In this report, we assess the data recorded by a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) cable deployed during the Source Physics Experiment, Phase II (DAG) in comparison with the data recorded by nearby 4.5-Hz geophones. DAS is a novel recording method with unprecedented spatial resolution, but there are significant concerns around the data fidelity as the technology is ramped up to more common usage. Here we run a series of tests to quantify the similarity between DAS data and more conventional data and investigate cases where the higher spatial resolution of the DAS can provide new insights into the wavefield. These tests include 1D modeling with seismic refraction and bootstrap uncertainties, assessing the amplitude spectra with distance from the source, measuring the frequency dependent inter-station coherency, estimating time-dependent phase velocity with beamforming and semblance, and measuring the cross-correlation between the geophone and the particle velocity inferred from the DAS. In most cases, we find high similarity between the two datasets, but the higher spatial resolution of the DAS provides increased details and methods of estimating uncertainty.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative assessment of Distributed Acoustic Sensing at the Source Physics Experiment (Phase II)

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets

Publication For a thorough description of the methods, see the peer-reviewed paper: Jones, A.D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P. et al. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather. Sci Data 10, 664 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02485-5 Overview The IM3 / HyperFACETS climate simulations provide 40-year historical (1980-2019) as well as four 80-year future simulations (2020-2099) over the U.S. The future simulations are split into near (2020-2059) and far future (2060-2099) segments. The future scenarios span a range of plausible changes in future climate (both Global Circulation Model (GCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP/SSP) dimensions). The simulations provide climate variables with high spatiotemporal resolution (25 hourly variables and 207 3-hourly variables at 12 km2). The datasets are generated using dynamical downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (version 4.2.1) and therefore preserve physical consistency across variables. WRF is a state-of-the-art, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic, mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. WRF is coupled with an urban canopy model (UCM), which resolves urban surfaces. The future scenarios were developed using a thermodynamic global warming approach where past events are replayed under a range of future warming conditions. These scenarios therefore provide a perspective on potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, with previously non-extreme conditions potentially crossing new thresholds to be considered extreme by today's standards. This approach is not intended to estimate future changes in extreme event frequency that might result from changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This dataset has NOT been bias corrected. A bias corrected version of selected variables is under development and will be released here when available. Scenarios Files Data for each scenario is provided in weekly NetCDF files. 25 variables are available at hourly resolution, and 207 variables are available at three-hourly resolution. Spatial resolution is 12km and spans the conterminous United States (CONUS), including some areas of Canada and Mexico, resulting in a grid of 424 by 299 cells. The spatial projection is a Lambert Conformal Conic with the following proj-string: "+proj=lcc +lat_0=40.0000076293945 +lon_0=-97 +lat_1=30 +lat_2=45 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +R=6370000 +units=m +no_defs". The available scenarios and simulation periods are listed below: historical | 1980 - 2019 rcp45cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp45cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp45hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp45hotter | 2060 - 2099 rcp85cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp85cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp85hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp85hotter | 2060 - 2099 * The first year (1979, 2019, and 2059) of data within each scenario represents a model warmup period and should not be used. These are located in the `spinup_files` directory. Historical year 2020 is considered an extra year of data beyond the simulation period and can be found in the `additional_files` directory. For information on specific variables and a more in-depth discussion of methodology, please refer to the data landing page at https://tgw-data.msdlive.org. Delta Warming Files The global and CONUS warming deltas for each scenario are provided in degrees Celsius annually and monthly. Restart Files Yearly restart files are provided for each scenario which can be used to restart the WRF model at a particular point in time. Spinup Files The first year of data within each simulation period represents a model warmup period and should not be used. The files are provided here for the sake of reproducibility. Additional Files Additional years of data are provided as an extension of the historic simulation.

Jones, Andrew D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Simons Observatory: Modeling Optical Systematics in the Large Aperture Telescope

We present geometrical and physical optics simulation results for the Simons Observatory Large Aperture Telescope. This work was developed as part of the general design process for the telescope; allowing us to evaluate the impact of various design choices on performance metrics and potential systematic effects. The primary goal of the simulations was to evaluate the final design of the reflectors and the cold optics which are now being built. We describe non-sequential ray tracing used to inform the design of the cold optics, including absorbers internal to each optics tube. We discuss ray tracing simulations of the telescope structure that allow us to determine geometries that minimize detector loading and mitigate spurious near-field effects that have not been resolved by the internal baffling. We also describe physical optics simulations, performed over a range of frequencies and field locations, that produce estimates of monochromatic far field beam patterns which in turn are used to gauge general optical performance. Finally, we describe simulations that shed light on beam sidelobes from panel gap diffraction.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Applying AI/ML Techniques to U.S. Nuclear Operating Experience Program

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has provided technical assistance to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in reliability and risk analysis including the operating experience (OpE) program since the 1980s. The U.S. nuclear OpE program provides input parameters to the NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk models and the industry probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models. While earlier PRA focuses were on at-power, internal event analysis, the risks from external hazards and during low power shutdown (LPSD) operation could be significant and the needs to develop LPSD PRA and external hazards PRA are on the rise. One issue in developing LPSD PRA is the reasonable estimation of shutdown initiative event (SDIE) frequencies. INL has developed and is maintaining an SDIE database for the NRC. However, this database is based on the reviewing of Licensee Event Reports (LERs), which is believed to be only a subset of “actual” shutdown initiating events occurred in the industry. This paper investigates a new approach to identify and characterize shutdown initiating events from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) industry database using machine learning techniques. The main process in this approach is to find out the relationship between key words in event descriptions and the SDIE categories as in the NRC SDIE database. The relationship can then be applied to the INPO database and search for SDIEs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automated Estimation of the DARHT Radiographic Spot Size from Spatially Modulated Images

We wrote a software routine to find local extrema and calculate the contrast in the image for each feature set. The input is a KTO image in the standard DARHT orientation, pre-processed by flat-fielding, dark frame subtraction and de-warping. Table 1 shows contrast results for five contemporaneous DARHT images of the KTO. For some very dense feature sets, contrast measurements are not possible due to a lack of local extrema, and in this case no contrast value is given in the table. Highlighted in bold are the contrast values for each image that bound the threshold C = 0.01. The contrast is varying rapidly enough with spatial frequency that we can interpolate between these values to find an estimate of the spatial frequency at the threshold value.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Assessment of Receiver Algorithms for Distributed Massive MIMO Systems: Investigating Design Solutions and Performance

This study investigates receiver design solutions for distributed Massive Multiple Input Multiple Output (D-m MIMO) systems, taking into account parameters such as number of access points as well as concerns related to channel estimates that use single-carrier frequency-domain equalization (SC-FDE). A significant contribution of this research is the integration of Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC) codes to simplify coding complexity and enhance communication efficiency. The research examines different receiver designs, such as spatial antenna correlation and sophisticated channel estimation methods. The authors propose integrating LDPC codes into the receiver architecture to simplify computations and enhance error correction and decoding. Moreover, the paper examines performance evaluation measures and approaches, highlighting the trade-offs among complexity, spectral efficiency, and error performance. The comparative analysis indicates the benefits, in terms of performance, of incorporating LDPC codes and improving system throughput and dependability. We examine four distinct receiver algorithms: zero-forcing (ZF), minimum mean square error (MMSE), maximum ratio combining (MRC), and equal gain combining (EGC). The study shows that MRC and EGC receivers work well in D-m MIMO because they make the receiver system less computationally demanding.

Gashtasbi, Ali↗

DOE OSTI2024

On detrending stream velocity time series for robust tidal flow turbulence characterization

We investigated the impact of detrending techniques on turbulence quantities from tidal stream flow data, focusing on the autocorrelation function, $ρ_{uu}$, and velocity spectrum, $Φ(f)$. Standard detrending methods, including high-pass frequency-based and polynomial-based techniques, are examined, alongside a proposed alternative method, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our results highlight that intervals of flow acceleration and deceleration, typical in tidal and riverine flows, significantly affect the estimation of turbulence quantities using high-pass frequency filtering and polynomial detrending of varying orders. These methods can strongly influence $ρ_{uu}$ and $Φ(f)$, thereby affecting the accurate estimation of derived quantities. We examine two variations of detrending data using EMD; the first removes only the EMD residue, and the second removes both the residue and the largest scale intrinsic mode function (IMF). By comparing the detrended spectra with the modeled von Kármán spectra, we demonstrate that the second variation (i.e., removing the residue and the largest scale IMF) successfully removed the large-scale trend of the data while retaining the energy of other scales.

Detrend↗

DOE OSTI2026

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Reversed Impedance-Based Stability Criterion for IBR Grids

The existing impedance-based stability criterion is effective for analyzing local control interactions; however, it is difficult to scale the existing criterion to analyze wide-area control interactions among numerous IBRs through a complex power system network. The scaled version of the existing criterion requires the impedance response of each IBR in the system as well as of the network looking from all the IBRs. It is quite challenging to obtain all these impedance responses because of the computational effort and the requirement of separately scanning the impedance of the network and the IBRs. We propose a reversed criterion for the impedance-based stability analysis to address these problems. In contrast to the existing criterion, the reversed criterion analyzes the stability of a power system when an IBR is disconnected from the system. The reversed criterion estimates the impact of an IBR on the frequency and damping of power system oscillation modes using the impedance scans of only the IBR and the grid at its terminal. It can be sequentially applied at different IBRs to evaluate their impact on the power system stability. In addition to scalability, the reversed criterion gives flexibility to focus only on a few selected IBRs, depending on their rating, the magnitude of oscillations observed at their terminals, and the vendor support available for implementing stabilizing control system updates. The reversed criterion is demonstrated on a 14-bus power system with 100% IBRs.

control interactions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Overview of the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study Using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. Here, in this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification and prediction of error in MIMO tests

Dynamic testing of systems is most realistic of real-world conditions when multiple input and multiple output (MIMO) techniques are used. To replicate measured environmental conditions, a series of desired outputs (responses) on the system must be realized by inverting the frequency response functions (FRF) matrix for input estimation. System identification is dependent on the number of inputs and outputs, which affect the type of solutions. In input estimation, the auto spectra of the determined inputs are affected by both the auto spectra and cross spectra of the desired outputs. This research evaluates errors and investigates two sources in an experimental setting. The first significant error source is test-to-test variability in FRFs from system identification tests, quantified by magnitude variability from long-duration tests. The second significant error source is the realization of time histories from frequency domain inputs. The spectral content of the realized random process deviates from the desired content and is also quantified. The structure is a linear three-story frame fixed at the base; two inputs are provided uniaxially with the use of suspended electrodynamic shakers. The proposed model for error sources was found to be effective in predicting errors in a SISO (single-input single-output) and a square (2-input 2-output) MIMO test.

Yousef, Odey↗

DOE OSTI2022

Classification and Localization of Fracture-Hit Events in Low-Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing Strain Rate with Convolutional Neural Networks

Summary Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has been used in the oil and gas industry as an advanced technology for surveillance and diagnostics. Operators use DAS to monitor hydraulic fracturing activities, examine well stimulation efficacy, and estimate complex fracture system geometries. Particularly, low-frequency DAS can detect geomechanical events such as fracture hits because hydraulic fractures propagate and create strain rate variations in the rock. Analysis of DAS data today is mostly done post-job and subject to interpretation methods. However, the continuous and dense data stream generated live by DAS poses the opportunity for more efficient and accurate real-time data-driven analysis. The objective of this study is to develop a machine learning-based workflow that can identify and locate fracture-hit events in simulated strain rate responses correlated with low-frequency DAS data. In this paper, “fracture hit” refers to a hydraulic fracture originating from a stimulated well intersecting an offset well. We start with building a single fracture propagation model to produce strain rate patterns observed at a hypothetical monitoring well. This model is used to generate two sets of strain rate responses with one set containing fracture-hit events. The labeled synthetic data are then used to train a custom convolutional neural network (CNN) model for identifying the presence of fracture-hit events. The same model is trained again for locating the event with the output layer of the model replaced with linear units. We achieved near-perfect predictions for both event classification and localization. These promising results prove the feasibility of using CNN for real-time event detection from fiber-optic sensing data. Additionally, we use edge detection techniques to recognize fracture-hit event patterns in strain rate images. The fracture-hit location can be identified using recognized pixels in the image. The accuracy of edge detection-based location identification is also plausible, but edge detection is dependent on the assumption of pattern shape and image quality, hence it is less robust compared to CNN models. This comparison further supports the need for CNN applications in image-based real-time fiber-optic sensing event detection.

Engineering↗