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Quaternary slip rates and most recent surface rupture of the Bitterroot fault, western Montana

The Bitterroot fault is a ~100-km-long Quaternary active normal fault that bounds the eastern margin of the north–south-trending Bitterroot Mountains and accommodates extension near the Intermountain Seismic Belt. Here, new detailed mapping using high-resolution topographic data derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) along the southern Bitterroot Range documents multiple generations of fault scarps in Holocene–Pleistocene deposits with vertical off sets that increase in magnitude with age. Fault mapping indicates a complex fault geometry characterized by an en echelon pattern of discontinuous segments of 41–78° east-dipping normal faults that appear to cut the older Eocene detachment fault, and locally 70–88° west-dipping antithetic normal faults. 10 Be cosmogenic exposure dating provides in situ age control for 32 surface boulders (>1 m) sampled in glacial deposits. Near Como Dam, two Pinedale-age glacial moraine sequences yield peak age distributions of 15.0 ± 0.4 ka and 16.4 ± 0.6 ka as apparent exposure ages (e = 0), and 15.4 ± 0.4 ka and 16.8 ± 0.6 ka based on the maximum allowed boulder surface erosion rate (e = 2 mm/ka). Vertical separation of 3.5 ± 0.2 m across the ~16–17 ka glacial moraine off set by the Bitterroot fault scarp yields a fault slip rate of 0.2–0.3 mm/yr. Glacial Lake Missoula highstand shorelines, inset into the ~15 ka glacial moraine and vertically off set 4.6 ± 1.6 m by an antithetic strand of the Bitterroot fault, yield fault slip rates of 0.2–0.5 mm/yr that overlap with fault slip rates on the main strand near Lake Como (0.2–0.3 mm/yr). At the Ward Creek fan located ~15 km to the north of Lake Como, two glacial debris fan sequences yield peak age distributions of 16.6 ± 0.4 ka and 62.8 ± 1.7 ka (e = 0), and 17.0 ± 0.4 ka and 69.9 ± 2.2 ka (e = 2 mm/ka). Vertical separations of 2.4 ± 0.3 m and 4.5 ± 0.2 m on the ~17 ka and ~63–70 ka fan surfaces off set by the Bitterroot fault yield fault slip rates of 0.2–0.3 mm/yr and 0.1 mm/yr, respectively. Our results indicate broadly consistent fault slip rates for the main fault segments at Lake Como (0.2–0.3 mm/yr) and the Ward Creek fan (0.1–0.3 mm/yr) with an along-strike range of 0.1–0.3 mm/yr for the southern Bitterroot fault. Fault scaling relations and evidence of multiple late Quaternary fault surface ruptures suggest the Bitterroot fault could produce a Mw ~7.2 earthquake. Structural model constraints and our slip rate results indicate both high-angle or low-angle fault geometries are possible at depth. A seismogenic low-angle fault model could generate a larger earthquake of Mw >7.2. Earthquake history is unknown for the Bitterroot fault, but fault scarps in young glacial deposits demonstrate its seismogenic potential. Data from this study suggest seismic hazards from the Bitterroot fault may pose a high level of risk to the Missoula metropolitan area, the State’s second most populous region, and major infrastructures across the Missoula and Bitterroot Valleys.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Voltron Compatible Whole Building Root-Fault Detection and Diagnosis

Buildings consume more than 40% of primary energy in the U.S. Malfunctioning sensors, components, and control systems, as well as degrading components in Heating, Ventilating and Air-conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems are main reasons for energy waste and unsatisfactory indoor environment. Field studies have shown that an energy saving of 5-30% of total building energy consumption and improved indoor air quality can be achieved by simply applying automated fault detection and diagnosis (AFDD), followed by corrections even if these are not done in real time. Extensive research has been made on the development of component level AFDD tools in the past two decades. However, in recent years, the development of method for a whole building level AFDD has received much attention. Here, a whole building fault refers to a fault happening in one subsystem but impact on more than one subsystems, or has a significant impact on building performances, such as building’s energy consumption. Existing component level AFDD tools could fail to detect or give false alarm for faults that trigger abnormalities in multiple subsystems. Isolating such whole building faults, which have impacts on multiple subsystems, is also challenging by simply using component based AFDD solutions. On the other hand, it might be more cost-effective for medium- or small-sized commercial buildings that have subsystems (e.g. primary cooling subsystem, air loop subsystem, heating subsystem, lighting subsystem, etc.) to install one whole building level AFDD tool, rather than many component level AFDD tools, to focus on significant faults. The focus of this project is firstly to provide training opportunities in building AFDD research area for undergraduate students and to develop a workforce pipeline in building sciences. The objective of the proposed research activities is to develop cost-effective and scalable AFDD solutions for whole building level faults. The developed AFDD solution is VOLTTRONTM compatible to further increase its plug-n-play capacity and the market penetration. VOLTTRONTM is an open-source innovative distributed control and sensing software platform developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. A VOLTTRONTM compatible AFDD tool brings the benefits such as low-cost deployment, and better building to grid integration, etc. The performance of the developed whole building AFDD tools is evaluated using data collected from a mixed-use medium-sized university campus building. Another significant goal of this project is to engage undergraduate students in research activities and expose them to building control and AFDD fields. A demonstration building – Nesbitt Hall at Drexel University is identified for this study. This demonstration building has a typical HVAC system configuration, which includes a water-cooled chiller system, three variable air volume (VAV) air handling unit (AHU) systems, and a hydronic heating system. Faults, that are expected to have a whole building level impact, are artificially implemented in this demonstration building for three different seasons. Building data have been collected in this project, which include fault free building automation system (BAS) data and BAS data that contain system behaviors caused by artificially implemented and naturally occurred faults. These collected data are used to evaluate the developed whole building AFDD tools. A data-driven method, which includes a weather and schedule-based pattern matching (WPM) method and Feature based Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) method, is developed for whole building level fault detection. Parameter sensitivity tests, including snapshot window size, data sample searching pool size, etc., are implemented to evaluate the impacts of various WPM-FPCA parameters. A data-driven and expert knowledge/rule-based method using Bayesian Network (BN) and WPM is developed for whole building level fault diagnosis. The developed WPM-BN method, which includes a two-layer BN structure model and BN parameters, are either learned from baseline data or developed from expert knowledge. The developed whole building AFDD tools are evaluated using BAS data collected from the demonstration building. Using the evaluation data set, the WPM-FPCA fault detection method is evaluated under two different Principle Component (PC) retention rates, i.e., 0.65 retention rate and 0.95 retention rate. It is observed that when using 0.65 PC retention rate, the WPM-FPCA fault detection method achieves a 79% fault detection rate (this rate reaches to 85% when including the six make-up fault test cases discussed in the next bullet), while when using 0.95 PC retention rate, the WPM-FPCA fault detection method achieves 100% fault detection rate (this rate remains to be 100% when including the six make-up fault test cases). Under both PC retention rates, the WPM-FPCA fault detection method demonstrates 0% false alarm rates. Using the evaluation data set, the developed WPM-BN fault diagnosis method has successfully diagnosed thirteen (13) faults out of the fourteen (14) fault test cases. The one mis-diagnosed case exhibits fewer fault symptoms in different subsystems, when compared with other fault test cases. Overall speaking, the developed whole building AFDD solutions demonstrate satisfactory fault detection/diagnosis accuracy with very low false alarm rate. Lastly, a survey and market study has been performed to understand the existing AFDD market, including its gaps and needs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Innovative Fault Impact Analysis Framework for Enhancing Building Operations

The main goal of this paper is to rank building faults based on their impacts on the building energy penalty and occupant thermal comfort penalty considering multiple faults and fault occurrence rates. A fault impact analysis framework is created by incorporating the fault model library with the whole building energy performance simulation (e.g., EnergyPlus used in this study). The fault occurrence rate is introduced as a 'meta' parameter in the simulation. This framework involves three essential aspects of conducting a fault impact analysis: fault constructing, fault simulation, and fault impact analysis. A parametric sensitivity analysis was used to determine and rank the criticality of the faults considering the fault concurrence frequency, by using the deep-learning based response surface model (i.e., the multi-layer perceptron regression). The proposed fault analysis framework with ranking was tested and demonstrated for the DOE's prototype medium-sized office in four different climate zones (i.e., Atlanta, Chicago, Miami, and San Francisco) with 12,000 EnergyPlus fault simulations. A total of 129 fault modes from 41 groups of fault models were simulated for the medium-sized office case. The results demonstrate the proposed framework is robust and scalable for the fault impact analysis. The top critical fault for the medium-sized office is the fault of HVAC-Left-ON for the packaged rooftop unit, regarding the site energy, source energy, and HVAC energy. Excluding the fault of HVAC-Left-ON, the top critical faults vary significantly among the four climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deciphering the Stress State of Seismogenic Faults in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas Based on an Improved Stress Map

Fault location and geometry are prime considerations in the reactivation of preexisting faults. Here, we combine relocated earthquake catalogs and focal mechanisms to delineate seismogenic faults in Oklahoma and southern Kansas and analyze their stress state. Initially, we identify and map seismogenic faults based on earthquake clustering. We then obtain an improved stress map using 2,047 high-quality focal mechanisms. The regional stress map shows a gradual transition from oblique normal faulting in western Oklahoma to strike-slip faulting in central and eastern Oklahoma. Stress amplitude ratio shows a strong correlation with pore pressure from hydrogeologic models, suggesting that pore pressure exhibits a measurable influence on stress patterns. Finally, we assess fault stress state via 3-D Mohr circles; a parameter understress is used to quantify the level of fault criticality (with 0 meaning critically stressed faults and 1 meaning faults with no applied shear stress). Our findings suggest that most active faults have near vertical planes (planarity >0.8 and dip >70°), and there is a strong correlation between fault length and maximum magnitude on each fault. The fault trends show prominent conjugate sets that strike [55–75°] and [105–125°]. A comparison with mapped sedimentary faults and basement fractures reveals common tectonic control. Based on 3-D Mohr circles, we find that 78% of the faults are critically stressed (understress ≤0.2), while several seismogenic faults are misoriented with high understress (>0.4). Fault geometry and local stress fields may be used to evaluate potential seismic hazard, as the largest earthquakes tend to occur on long, critically stressed faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling supercritical CO2 injection induced rupture of a minor fault embedded in a poroelastic layered reservoir-caprock system

CO2 injection for geologic carbon sequestration involves hydromechanical processes that lead to changes in fluid pressure and stresses that can activate existing faults. This paper presents a new method and workflow of modeling fault activation considering more complex three-dimensional geometry of natural faults using the TOUGH-FLAC multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulator. In this method and workflow, FLAC3D mechanical interfaces and TOUGH3 finite volume elements are discretized using computer aided design and gridding software along with a tailored mesh translation routine. The method and workflow are demonstrated with a model of a curved minor fault embedded in a poro-elastic layered reservoir-caprock system. The model is used for a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of fault responses to fault length, injection mass rate, injection schedule, well-fault distance, and well locations versus fault location. Four metrics (CO2 plume, shear state of fault, pressure and stress path at fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO2 migration, pressure change, and the reactivation of faults. The results reveal that CO2 can bypass around the tip of the minor impermeable fault, building up pressure and poro-elastic stress on both sides that tends to impede fault rupture. Our study shows the benefit of carefully designing the injection to achieve the targeted final storage volume, starting at a relatively low rate for considerable time, and then ramping up the injection rate to the full rate of injection. The initial low injection has two distinct benefits: (1) it allows for the formation of an extensive CO2 plume with a much higher mobility through a low viscosity that will result in a lower pressure for a given injection rate, and (2) it allows for gradual build-up of horizontal poro-elastic stress within the reservoir that will tend to impede activation of steeply dipping faults. The injection scenario starting at a low injection rate, denoted here as conservative injection, can significantly reduce the risk of fault activation as high fluid mobility and reservoir strengthening poro-elastic stress has been established long before reaching the peak injection rates. Moreover, simultaneous injection in two injection wells on both sides of fault can provide further reservoir strengthening through poro-elastic stress buildup acting on a fault under normal faulting stress regime. The findings presented in the paper can provide practical and effective guidance on long-term, safe, and reliable geological CO2 storage.

Cao, Meng↗

Fault tectonics and earthquake hazards in parts of southern California

The author has identified the following significant results. Four previously unknown faults were discovered in basement terrane of the Peninsular Ranges. These have been named the San Ysidro Creek fault, Thing Valley fault, Canyon City fault, and Warren Canyon fault. In addition fault gouge and breccia were recognized along the San Diego River fault. Study of features on Skylab imagery and review of geologic and seismic data suggest that the risk of a damaging earthquake is greater along the northwestern portion of the Elsinore fault than along the southeastern portion. Physiographic indicators of active faulting along the Garlock fault identifiable in Skylab imagery include scarps, linear ridges, shutter ridges, faceted ridges, linear valleys, undrained depressions and offset drainage. The following previously unrecognized fault segments are postulated for the Salton Trough Area: (1) An extension of a previously known fault in the San Andreas fault set located southeast of the Salton Sea; (2) An extension of the active San Jacinto fault zone along a tonal change in cultivated fields across Mexicali Valley ( the tonal change may represent different soil conditions along opposite sides of a fault). For the Skylab and LANDSAT images studied, pseudocolor transformations offer no advantages over the original images in the recognition of faults in Skylab and LANDSAT images. Alluvial deposits of different ages, a marble unit and iron oxide gossans of the Mojave Mining District are more readily differentiated on images prepared from ratios of individual bands of the S-192 multispectral scanner data. The San Andreas fault was also made more distinct in the 8/2 and 9/2 band ratios by enhancement of vegetation differences on opposite sides of the fault. Preliminary analysis indicates a significant earth resources potential for the discrimination of soil and rock types, including mineral alteration zones. This application should be actively pursued.

Merifield, P. M.↗

A systematic approach to the analysis of double faults within design basic accident methodology - 14501

Within the UK there is a general trend towards adopting Design Basis Accident (DBA) methodology for the assessment of radiological hazards, including criticality. DBA is a single fault methodology and comprises identifying the initiating event, its frequency and consequence. A fault with a very low initiating event frequency will not require further analysis. A fault sequence that terminates in a sub-critical configuration would also not require further analysis; although the identified passive features ensuring sub-criticality are subjected to engineering substantiation. Where faults do not pass this initial screening, two safety measures are generally required to ensure the fault does not progress to a criticality incident. This methodology provides a robust approach to single faults ensuring that an appropriate level and range of plant measures are identified and subjected to appropriate substantiation. However, a criticality is a cliff-edge effect and is dependent on multiple parameters. It is entirely possible under DBA to evaluate several single fault sequences and conclude that no measures are required because the single faults terminate in a sub-critical configuration. Importantly, for criticality safety, under DBA, there is no requirement to prevent important parameters from deviating from normal or upper bound 'safe' levels leaving the plant at greater risk in the event that further faults initiate. The combination of two faults could lead to a criticality incident but there is no current driver within DBA methodology to analyze these coincident or double faults. There is, therefore, potential to significantly under estimate the risk of criticality. This understanding is embodied within other methodologies such as the Double Contingency Principle. However, within the UK the DBA methodology has so significantly improved the analysis of single faults that, in some instances, consideration of double faults has taken a back seat. This is despite the UK regulator stating that 'criticality safety cases should employ the double contingency approach'. This paper presents a systematic approach to ensure that the potential for double faults or multiple parameter deviations to result in a criticality is effectively evaluated within the wider DBA methodology. The methodology determines which faults may be screened out from double fault analysis on the grounds of being 'unlikely' to initiate and being present for a 'short' duration. For those faults screened into double fault analysis, this guidance sets out the potential means of determining acceptable risk. These means include the specific evaluation of the risk of two criticality control parameters deviating simultaneously, the definition of additional safety measures and the definition of the boundary of safety for multiple parameters and the risk of exceeding this boundary. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fault geometry and slip distribution of the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, inferred from GPS and InSAR measurements

We revisit the problem of coseismic rupture of the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Precise determination of the fault structure and slip distribution provides critical information about the mechanical behaviour of the fault system and earthquake rupture. We use all the geodetic data available, craft a more realistic Earth structure and fault model compared to previous studies, and employ a nonlinear inversion scheme to optimally solve for the fault geometry and slip distribution. Compared to a homogeneous elastic half-space model and laterally uniform layered models, adopting separate layered elastic structure models on both sides of the Beichuan fault significantly improved data fitting. Our results reveal that: (1) The Beichuan fault is listric in shape, with near surface fault dip angles increasing from ~36° at the southwest end to ~83° at the northeast end of the rupture. (2) The fault rupture style changes from predominantly thrust at the southwest end to dextral at the northeast end of the fault rupture. (3) Fault slip peaks near the surface for most parts of the fault, with~8.4mthrust and ~5 m dextral slip near Hongkou and ~6 m thrust and ~8.4 m dextral slip near Beichuan, respectively. (4) The peak slips are located around fault geometric complexities, suggesting that earthquake style and rupture propagation were determined by fault zone geometric barriers. Such barriers exist primarily along restraining left stepping discontinuities of the dextralcompressional fault system. (5) The seismic moment released on the fault above 20 km depth is 8.2 × 10 21 N m, corresponding to an M w 7.9 event. The seismic moments released on the local slip concentrations are equivalent to events of M w 7.5 at Yingxiu-Hongkou, M w 7.3 at Beichuan-Pingtong, M w 7.2 near Qingping, M w 7.1 near Qingchuan, and M w 6.7 near Nanba, respectively. (6) The fault geometry and kinematics are consistent with a model in which crustal deformation at the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau is decoupled by differential motion across a decollement in the mid crust, above which deformation is dominated by brittle reverse faulting and below which deformation occurs by viscous horizontal shortening and vertical thickening.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geomechanical in situ testing of fault reactivation in argillite repositories

Abstract. Pressurization of natural faults as a result of repository-induced effects can lead to their reactivation and permeability generation in case such features are present near disposal tunnels. Potential driving forces for such pressurization are the temperature increase caused by heat-producing high-level radioactive waste and the generation of hydrogen and other gases due to corrosion of engineered materials. We are primarily concerned about pressurization and fault activation in host rocks and faults that have very low natural permeability for pore pressure increases to dissipate, such as the argillite rocks currently investigated in Switzerland, France and other countries. This presentation discusses a series of in situ experiments of fault activation by fluid injection conducted in the argillite rock (Opalinus clay) at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory in Switzerland. A multi-model monitoring test bed was installed at Mont Terri that includes distributed fiber optics for strain, temperature, and acoustics; local fault pore pressure and three-dimensional displacement sensors; active seismic imaging; and passive seismic monitoring. The fault experiments (and their subsequent analysis via hydromechanical modeling) provide a new fundamental understanding of the coupling between pore pressure, fault deformation and permeability generation as a function of time and allow exploring how seismic and aseismic events may impact the integrity of faulted argillite host rock. Our experimental observations demonstrate that significant flow (and transport) can occur along the initially impermeable argillite fault when rupture is activated. However, the fault permeability decreases to almost its pre-activation value when fluid injection ceases and fluid pressure drops. Dilatant slip on the fault plane alone does not explain the observed increase in fault permeability; pressure-induced fault opening also plays a role, favored by the softness of the shale along with the fact that the structure of the fault zone prevents fluids from diffusing into the adjacent damage zone. Rupture initiation and permeability generation is initially aseismic, associated only with an increase in noise level and emerging tremors. Micro-earthquakes are initiated later in the experiments and typically occur away from the fluid-pressurized area. Hydromechanical models show that stress transferred from the initial aseismic deformation can build up to stress criticality and later induce seismic rupture. After presenting the experimental results, we will close the presentation with an outlook to future experimental campaigns using the fault test bed at Mont Terri. We are currently planning a controlled thermal stimulation of the fault, where instead of fluid injection as a trigger mechanism we will heat up the nearby rock volume and measure potential effects on fault stability. Lessons learned from our past and future experiments will help inform the safety assessment of geologic disposal in argillite host rock.

Birkholzer, Jens T.↗

Software-implemented fault insertion: An FTMP example

This report presents a model for fault insertion through software; describes its implementation on a fault-tolerant computer, FTMP; presents a summary of fault detection, identification, and reconfiguration data collected with software-implemented fault insertion; and compares the results to hardware fault insertion data. Experimental results show detection time to be a function of time of insertion and system workload. For the fault detection time, there is no correlation between software-inserted faults and hardware-inserted faults; this is because hardware-inserted faults must manifest as errors before detection, whereas software-inserted faults immediately exercise the error detection mechanisms. In summary, the software-implemented fault insertion is able to be used as an evaluation technique for the fault-handling capabilities of a system in fault detection, identification and recovery. Although the software-inserted faults do not map directly to hardware-inserted faults, experiments show software-implemented fault insertion is capable of emulating hardware fault insertion, with greater ease and automation.

Czeck, Edward W.↗

A Unified Nonlinear Adaptive Approach for Detection and Isolation of Engine Faults

A challenging problem in aircraft engine health management (EHM) system development is to detect and isolate faults in system components (i.e., compressor, turbine), actuators, and sensors. Existing nonlinear EHM methods often deal with component faults, actuator faults, and sensor faults separately, which may potentially lead to incorrect diagnostic decisions and unnecessary maintenance. Therefore, it would be ideal to address sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults under one unified framework. This paper presents a systematic and unified nonlinear adaptive framework for detecting and isolating sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults for aircraft engines. The fault detection and isolation (FDI) architecture consists of a parallel bank of nonlinear adaptive estimators. Adaptive thresholds are appropriately designed such that, in the presence of a particular fault, all components of the residual generated by the adaptive estimator corresponding to the actual fault type remain below their thresholds. If the faults are sufficiently different, then at least one component of the residual generated by each remaining adaptive estimator should exceed its threshold. Therefore, based on the specific response of the residuals, sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults can be isolated. The effectiveness of the approach was evaluated using the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan engine model, and simulation results are presented.

Tang, Liang↗

Application of Fault Containment Principles to EMC

A hardware fault in aerospace is an undesired response to a designed engineering function in hardware. Therefore, in aerospace systems fault management is of prime importance. An important aspect of hardware faults is fault propagation. Fault propagation (also known as failure propagation) is a condition where a fault will not only produce an undesired hardware response, at its location of origin, but the fault will also propagate to other interfaced hardware and cause additional faults, or failures. Fault containment is necessary to avoid fault propagation. A fault containment region is an electronic or electromechanical region within a given hardware assembly where a fault in that region will not physically propagate to other regions of the assembly, and beyond. Rather, the fault will cause a functional failure of the hardware, where the fault occurred, without causing any additional propagated failures. Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) is a desired state in aerospace hardware. Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) in aerospace hardware is a fault condition of EMC. Like other faults EMI can also propagate to other aerospace hardware unless it occurs inside an EMI containment region. The paper addresses the concepts of fault containment region and introduces the concept of EMI containment region with examples of both.

Perez, Reinaldo↗

Factors controlling injection-induced rupture of intersecting faults during geological sequestration of CO 2

This study addresses coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics effects on potential fault activation associated with subsurface CO 2 injection around intersecting faults. An enhanced fault-representation model is used to capture geomechanical responses of two intersecting faults with finite length during CO 2 injection. The faults are embedded in a strike-slip stress regime of a caprock-reservoir-basement system with the faults represented by zero-thickness interfaces with adjacent finite-thickness damage zones. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effect of fault permeability, slip-weakening behavior, well location relative to the orientation of faults, and well placement (the number and location of injection wells). Five metrics (pressure, CO 2 plume, shear state on the fault, as well as shear displacement and stress path at selected fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO 2 migration and reactivation of intersecting faults. The results show that induced ruptures are favored by low permeability faults due to high pressure buildup and by slip-weakening behavior resulting from fault strength reduction. The location of one injection well relative to fault orientation determines the magnitude of changes in effective normal stress and shear stress, affecting the location of induced ruptures. Well placement (two injection wells used in the paper) dominates pressure diffusion around the intersection and tips of faults. This redistributes changes in effective normal stress caused by each injection well, influencing the spatial distribution of ruptures along faults. A larger injection volume induces far-field ruptures that are controlled by stress transfer within the injection layer. The findings presented here can provide valuable insights into engineering operations for a long-term, safe, and reliable geologic CO 2 storage.

Fault permeability↗

Network Connectivity for Permanent, Transient, Independent, and Correlated Faults

This paper develops a method for the quantitative analysis of network connectivity in the presence of both permanent and transient faults. Even though transient noise is considered a common occurrence in networks, a survey of the literature reveals an emphasis on permanent faults. Transient faults introduce a time element into the analysis of network reliability. With permanent faults it is sufficient to consider the faults that have accumulated by the end of the operating period. With transient faults the arrival and recovery time must be included. The number and location of faults in the system is a dynamic variable. Transient faults also introduce system recovery into the analysis. The goal is the quantitative assessment of network connectivity in the presence of both permanent and transient faults. The approach is to construct a global model that includes all classes of faults: permanent, transient, independent, and correlated. A theorem is derived about this model that give distributions for (1) the number of fault occurrences, (2) the type of fault occurrence, (3) the time of the fault occurrences, and (4) the location of the fault occurrence. These results are applied to compare and contrast the connectivity of different network architectures in the presence of permanent, transient, independent, and correlated faults. The examples below use a Monte Carlo simulation, but the theorem mentioned above could be used to guide fault-injections in a laboratory.

White, Allan L.↗

Modeling of HVAC operational faults in building performance simulation

Operational faults are common in the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems of existing buildings, leading to a decrease in energy efficiency and occupant comfort. Various fault detection and diagnostic methods have been developed to identify and analyze HVAC operational faults at the component or subsystem level. However, current methods lack a holistic approach to predicting the overall impacts of faults at the building level—an approach that adequately addresses the coupling between various operational components, the synchronized effect between simultaneous faults, and the dynamic nature of fault severity. This study introduces the novel development of a fault-modeling feature in EnergyPlus which fills in the knowledge gap left by previous studies. This paper presents the design and implementation of the new feature in EnergyPlus and discusses in detail the fault-modeling challenges faced. The new fault-modeling feature enables EnergyPlus to quantify the impacts of faults on building energy use and occupant comfort, thus supporting the decision making of timely fault corrections. Including actual building operational faults in energy models also improves the accuracy of the baseline model, which is critical in the measurement and verification of retrofit or commissioning projects. As an example, EnergyPlus version 8.6 was used to investigate the impacts of a number of typical operational faults in an office building across several U.S. climate zones. Finally, the results demonstrate that the faults have significant impacts on building energy performance as well as on occupant thermal comfort. Finally, the paper introduces future development plans for EnergyPlus fault-modeling capability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling of fluid injection-induced fault reactivation using coupled fluid flow and mechanical interface model

The present study is aimed at developing a numerical model to reproduce coupled hydro-mechanical processes associated with fault reactivation by fluid injection in low permeability rock, as part of the DECOVALEX-2019 project Task B. We proposed a modeling approach for simulating the processes using the TOUGH-FLAC simulator, and modeled a fault reactivation experiment conducted at Mont Terri Rock Laboratory in Switzerland. The first step of the study involved benchmark calculations considering a simplified fault plane and geometry. Fluid flow along a fault was modeled using elements of aperture-sized thickness on the basis of Darcy's law and the cubic law in TOUGH2, whereas the mechanical behavior of a single fault was represented by zero-thickness interface elements in FLAC3D upon which a slip and/or separation is allowed. A methodology to connect a TOUGH2 volume element to a FLAC3D interface element was developed for handling the hydro-mechanical interactions on the fault during fluid injection. Two different fault models for describing the evolutions of hydraulic aperture by elastic fracture opening and failure-induced aperture increase were considered in the benchmark calculations. In the coupling process, the changes in geometrical features and hydrological properties induced by mechanical deformation were continuously updated. The transient responses of the fault and host rock to stepwise pressurization were examined during the simulation. The hydro-mechanical behavior, including the injection flow rate, pressure distribution around the borehole, stress conditions, and displacements in normal and shear directions were monitored in the surrounding rock and along the fault. The results of benchmark calculations suggest that the developed model reasonably represents the hydro-mechanical behavior of a fault and the surrounding rock. This modeling approach was applied to the fault reactivation experiment of the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory. In this interpretive modeling, a parametric study was conducted to examine the effects of input parameters regarding in situ stress and fault properties on the hydro-mechanical responses of the fault to water injection. Then, an optimal parameter set to reproduce the field experiment results was chosen by trial-and-error. The injection flow rate and pressure response during fault reactivation closely matched those obtained at the site, which indicates the capability of the model to appropriately capture the progressive pathway evolution during fault reactivation tests at the site. Finally, the anchor displacements were overestimated by the model, but a fair agreement was obtained in terms of the order of magnitude and the variation tendency.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗