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At least 217 records · Page 12

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

SST↗

Streamflow in the United States: Characteristics, trends, regime shifts, and extremes

Long-term streamflow observations contain essential information for understanding hydrological changes and managing water resources. A continental-scale dataset or analysis of temporal streamflow change is still lacking across hydrologic gauges in the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Here, we compiled 70 years of streamflow records from 1951 to 2021 at ~ 8000 hydrologic stations across the CONUS and characterized temporal trends, regime shifts, and extreme events using a Bayesian time series analysis algorithm. We found that the occurrences of sudden streamflow changes (e.g., regime shifts and extreme events) have been increasing with time across the CONUS. In addition, we derived 181 streamflow indicators that are valuable for hydrological and biological applications, such as the duration and frequency of high or low streamflow events. The Mississippi River Basin, especially the middle and lower parts, was a hot spot of high-frequency high-flow events. Overall, we anticipate the dataset generated here offers valuable information for understanding and quantifying changes in water resources across the CONUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical note: Modeling spatial fields of extreme precipitation – a hierarchical Bayesian approach

Abstract. We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model for the spatial distribution of rainfall corresponding to an extreme event of a specified duration that could be used with regional hydrologic models to perform a regional hydrologic risk analysis. An extreme event is defined if any gaging site in the watershed experiences an annual maximum rainfall event and the spatial field of rainfall at all sites corresponding to that occurrence is modeled. Applications to data from New York City demonstrate the effectiveness of the model for providing spatial scenarios that could be used for simulating loadings into the urban drainage system. Insights as to the homogeneity in spatial rainfall and its implications for modeling are provided by considering partial pooling in the hierarchical Bayesian framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biophotonic rogue waves in red blood cell suspensions

Rogue waves are ubiquitous in nature, appearing in a variety of physical systems ranging from acoustics, microwave cavities, optical fibers, and resonators to plasmas, superfluids, and Bose–Einstein condensates. Unlike nonlinear solitary waves, rogue waves are extreme events that can occur even without nonlinearity by, for example, spontaneous synchronization of waves with different spatial frequencies in a linear system. Here, we report the observation of rogue-wave-like events in human red blood cell (RBC) suspensions under weak light illumination, characterized by an abnormal L-shaped probability distribution. Such biophotonic extreme events arise mostly due to the constructive interference of Mie-scattered waves from the suspended RBCs, whose biconcave shape and mutable orientation give rise to a time-dependent random phase modulation to an incident laser beam. We numerically simulate the beam propagation through the colloidal suspensions with added disorder in both spatial and temporal domains to mimic random scattering due to Brownian motion. In addition, at high power levels, nonlinear beam self-focusing is also observed, leading to a dual-exponential probability distribution associated with the formation of multiple soliton-like spots. Such rogue wave events should also exist in environments with cells of other species such as swimming bacteria, and understanding of their underlying physics may lead to unexpected biophotonic applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Historical Power Outages of the United States and the National Risk Index

Several works have been documented in the literature to study the societal effect of power outages and to analyze their correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). However, the relationship between National Risk Index (NRI) and power outages is yet to be explored. This work analyzes the NRI indices such as Risk, Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience with several resilience metrics such as event duration, impact duration, recovery duration, impact level, impact rate, recovery rate, recovery to impact ratio, and area under the outage curves to see the correlation of NRI indices with the resilience metrics. The results show that NRI indices such as Risk and Expected Annual Loss increase with the increase of event duration, impact duration, and recovery duration. All Other metrics are indifferent to the change in the Risk and EAL ratings. The results also show that there is no strong relationship between all the metrics and community resilience and social vulnerability. This work also performed the sensitivity analysis of the extreme event selection process. This sensitivity analysis reveals that the way of identifying extreme events has a significant impact on the evaluation of the events.

Bhusal, Narayan↗

E2C Cohort on Major Energy Disruptions in the Southeast: Trade-Offs and Feasibility of Energy Sector Investment for Community Resilience [Slides]

The Energy to Communities (E2C) peer-learning cohort program provides technical assistance to groups of 15 community entities around a common energy topic over the course of 6 months. Every month, participants join a virtual meeting where they hear from experts and exchange strategies and best practices with their peers. This cohort, "Planning for Major Energy Disruptions in the Southeast" focuses on strategies for entities in the Southeast to quickly recover from impacts to energy infrastructure caused by extreme events, such as severe weather and natural disasters. This presentation focuses on the tradeoffs and relative costs of different strategies to improve outcomes from these extreme events. The workshop is on May 21, 2026.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Impacts of Estimated Plume Rise on PM 2.5 Exceedance Prediction During Extreme Wildfire Events: A Comparison of Three Schemes (Briggs, Freitas, and Sofiev)

Plume height plays a vital role in wildfire smoke dispersion and the subsequent effects on air quality and human health. In this study, we assess the impact of different plume rise schemes on predicting the dispersion of wildfire air pollution and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) during the 2020 western United States wildfire season. Three widely used plume rise schemes (Briggs, 1969; Freitas et al., 2007; Sofiev et al., 2012) are compared within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling framework. The plume heights simulated by these schemes are comparable to the aerosol height observed by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The performance of the simulations with these schemes varies by fire case and weather conditions. On average, simulations with higher plume injection heights predict lower aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM 2.5 concentrations near the source region but higher AOD and PM 2.5 in downwind regions due to the faster spread of the smoke plume once ejected. The 2-month mean AOD difference caused by different plume rise schemes is approximately 20 %–30 % near the source regions and 5 %–10 % in the downwind regions. Thick smoke blocks sunlight and suppresses photochemical reactions in areas with high AOD. The surface PM 2.5 difference reaches 70 % on the West Coast of the USA, and the difference is lower than 15 % in the downwind regions. Moreover, the plume injection height affects pollution exceedance (>35 µg m−3) predictions. Higher plume heights generally produce larger downwind PM 2.5 exceedance areas. The PM 2.5 exceedance areas predicted by the three schemes largely overlap, suggesting that all schemes perform similarly during large wildfire events when the predicted concentrations are well above the exceedance threshold. At the edges of the smoke plumes, however, there are noticeable differences in the PM 2.5 concentration and predicted PM 2.5 exceedance region. For the whole period of study, the difference in the total number of exceedance days could be as large as 20 d in northern California and 4 d in the downwind regions. This disagreement among the PM 2.5 exceedance forecasts may affect key decision-making regarding early warning of extreme air pollution episodes at local levels during large wildfire events.

Yunyao Li↗

Extreme Thunderstorms as Seen by Satellite

Extreme events by their nature fall outside the bounds of routine experience. With imperfect or ambiguous measuring systems, it is appropriate to question whether an unusual measurement represents an extreme event or is the result of instrument errors or other sources of noise. About three weeks after the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite began collecting data in Dec 1997, a thunderstorm was observed over northern Argentina with 85 GHz brightness temperatures below 50 K and 37 GHz brightness temperatures below 70 K (Zipser et al. 2006). These values are well below what had previously been observed from satellite sensors with lower resolution. The 37 GHz brightness temperatures are also well below those measured by TRMM for any other storm in the subsequent 16 years. Without corroborating evidence, it would be natural to suspect a problem with the instrument, or perhaps an irregularity with the platform during the first weeks of the satellite mission. But the TRMM satellite also carries a radar and a lightning sensor, both confirming the presence of an intense thunderstorm. The radar recorded 40+ dBZ (decibels relative to Z) reflectivity up to about 19 km altitude. More than 200 lightning flashes per minute were recorded. That same storm's 19 GHz brightness temperatures below 150 K would normally be interpreted as the result of a low-emissivity water surface (e.g., a lake, or flood waters) if not for the simultaneous measurements of such intense convection. This paper will examine records from TRMM and related satellite sensors including SSMI and AMSR-E to find the strongest signatures resulting from thunderstorms, and distinguishing those from sources of noise. The lowest brightness temperatures resulting from thunderstorms as seen by TRMM have been in Argentina in November and December. For SSMI sensors carried on five DMSP satellites examined so far, the lowest thunderstorm-related brightness temperatures have been from Argentina in November - December and from Minnesota in June-July. The Minnesota cases were associated with spotter reports of large hail, significant severe wind, and tornadoes. Those locations have the record holders for each satellite. This paper will show examples of cases with the lowest brightness temperatures, and map the locations of these and other storms with brightness temperatures nearly as low. Higher resolution data from the field program MC3E and possibly from IPHEX will be considered for context.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

Resilient Operations of Networked Microgrids (RONM)

Objective: Improve the resiliency of power systems with optimization-based methods that leverage advanced microgrid technologies to reduce system recovery times after extreme event induced outages. Outcome: First-of-kind, high-fidelity physics-based optimization method for modeling networked microgrids which includes key engineering constraints associated with system recovery after extreme events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Horton, Radley M.↗

Quantitative Metrics for Grid Resilience Evaluation and Optimization

Power system resilience has become a critical topic in recent years because of the increasing trend of extreme events and the growing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources. To enhance grid resilience against high-impact, low-frequency events, two questions should be answered: how to quantify the resilience of a given grid and how to incorporate the quantification into power system planning, operation, and restoration. Here this paper develops a new set of quantitative metrics with clear physical interpretation to comprehensively evaluate power system resilience. Using microgrids as an example, an event-based corrective scheduling (ECS) model and an online model predictive control (OMPC) model are developed to integrate the proposed quantitative resilience metrics into power system optimization models for resilience enhancement. The ECS model employs extreme event data to investigate the optimal restoration solution and to help microgrid operators prepare to respond to similar events. The OMPC model provides online decision-making support for operators to handle ongoing outages in the most resilient fashion. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed quantitative resilience metrics and the resilience enhancement models are demonstrated through simulations and comparative studies on an IEEE test feeder and a real distribution feeder in Southern California.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Eurasian Heat Waves: Mechanisms and Predictability

This study uses the NASA MERRA reanalysis and GEOS 5 model simulations to examine the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The focus is on the warm season and the part of the Eurasian continent that extends north of about 40oN, or roughly to the north of the mean upper tropospheric jet stream. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more intense in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent. Sensitivity experiments with perturbed initial conditions indicate that these events have limited predictability.

Wang, Hailan↗

Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate (Workshop Report)

Mountainous systems cover approximately 23% of Earth’s land and are distributed across all continents. They can capture and store atmospheric moisture that is then cycled through the terrestrial surface and subsurface system, released to downstream communities, and cycled back to the atmosphere. Mountain hydroclimate—characterized by steep gradients, geological, ecological, and biogeochemical diversity—is influenced by topographic forcing and elevated warming and susceptible to large subseasonal to multidecadal variability and rapid changes. Terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles also experience cascading effects from global warming impacts, such as multidecadal declines in mountain snowpack, longer growing seasons, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events like droughts and wildfires. However, little is known about the effects of these impacts and their feedbacks on climate systems and surface-subsurface compartments. Also unknown are the full implications of changing hydroclimate and extreme events on hydro biogeochemical cycles across atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems in mountain regions and beyond. This knowledge gap is critical, given human reliance on mountain systems for stable water supply and quality. Mountain systems’ increasing vulnerability to climate change and human perturbations motivates the need to improve understanding of integrated mountain hydroclimate (IMHC) systems and their feedbacks and impacts on humans across scales. However, due to large heterogeneity and strong gradients, coupled natural-human processes in mountain regions present significant challenges for observations, modeling, predictions, and projections. Motivated by gaps in mountain hydroclimate understanding, observations, and modeling and the need for credible projections of future changes, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program organized a virtual workshop on “Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate.” Sponsored by BER’s Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD), the workshop aimed to inform and catalyze EESSD’s growing interests in enhancing predictive understanding of IMHC. Organizers structured the workshop to identify (1) knowledge gaps, (2) observational and modeling challenges, (3) short-term (1 to 3 years) and long-term (10 years and beyond) research opportunities, and (4) strategies for fostering collaboration and coordination. To address the outstanding challenges of IMHC, the workshop included two sessions organized by disciplinary, cross-disciplinary, and crosscutting science topics. The disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics focused on essential IMHC elements: atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems and their interactions. Breakout sessions on disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics facilitated identification of crosscutting topics and central emerging themes. Session 1 focused on connecting existing DOE investments to accelerate progress related to scientific challenges in understanding mountain hydroclimate. In Session 2, participants further explored key Session 1 takeaways through the lens of multiagency collaborations and coordination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A deformation-dependent coupled Lagrangian/semi-Lagrangian meshfree hydromechanical formulation for landslide modeling

Abstract The numerical modelling of natural disasters such as landslides presents several challenges for conventional mesh-based methods such as the finite element method (FEM) due to the presence of numerically challenging phenomena such as severe material deformation and fragmentation. In contrast, meshfree methods such as the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM) possess unique features conducive to modelling extreme events such as the absence of a structured mesh and the ease of adaptive refinement, among others. While the semi-Lagrangian reproducing kernel (SL-RK) shape functions of RKPM defined in the current configuration have proven to be effective in extreme event modelling, the computational cost for the re-evaluation of the shape functions at every time step is costly. In this work, a deformation-dependent coupling of the Lagrangian reproducing kernel (L-RK) and SL-RK approximations is proposed for the solution of a hydro-mechanical formulation for effective simulations of landslides. The ramp function is constructed based on an equivalent plastic strain as a deformation-dependent transition from L-RK shape functions to SL-RK ones as the deformation progresses. The particular focus of the paper will be on modelling seepage-induced landslides with a mixed $$u$$ u – $$p$$ p formulation to couple the solid and fluid phases. Examples are presented to examine the effectiveness of this coupled Lagrangian/semi-Lagrangian reproducing kernel (L–SL RK) formulation and to highlight its performance in landslide modelling.

Baek, Jonghyuk↗

Multi-scale quantification of anthropogenic, fire, and drought-associated forest disturbances across the continental U.S., 2000–2014

Our understanding of broad-scale forest disturbances under climatic extremes remains incomplete. Drought, as a typical extreme event, is a key driver of forest mortality but there have been no reports on continental-scale quantification of its impact on forest mortality or how it compares to other natural or anthropogenic drivers. Thus, our ability to understand and predict broad-scale carbon cycling in response to changing climate and extreme events is limited. In this study, we applied an attribution approach based on different sources of data to quantify the area and potential carbon loss/transfer in continental U.S. (CONUS) from four types of disturbance: (1) anthropogenic (especially timber harvest); (2) fire; (3) drought-associated; and (4) other from 2000 to 2014. Our results showed that anthropogenic disturbances, fire, drought-associated disturbances, and other disturbances accounted for 54.3, 10.7, 12.7, and 22.3% of total canopy area loss, respectively. Anthropogenic disturbance was the most important driver contributing to 58.1% potential carbon loss/transfer in CONUS for 2000–2014. The potential carbon loss/transfer from natural disturbances (fire, drought, and other) for the same study period accounted for approximately 41.9% of the total loss/transfer from all agents, suggesting that natural disturbances also played a very important role in forest carbon turnover. Potential carbon loss/transfer associated with drought accounted for approximately 11.6% of the total loss/transfer in CONUS, which was of similar magnitude to potential carbon loss/transfer from fire (~11.0%). The other natural disturbance accounted for 19.3% of potential carbon loss/transfer. Our results demonstrated the importance of the impacts of various disturbances on forest carbon stocks at the continental scale, and the drought-associated carbon loss/transfer data developed here could be used for evaluating the performance of predictive models of tree mortality under droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Loosely Conditioned Emulation of Global Climate Models With Generative Adversarial Networks

Climate models encapsulate our best understanding of the Earth system, allowing research to be conducted on its future under alternative assumptions of how human-driven climate forces are going to evolve. An important application of climate models is to provide metrics of mean and extreme climate changes, particularly under these alternative future scenarios, as these quantities drive the impacts of climate on society and natural systems. Because of the need to explore a wide range of alternative scenarios and other sources of uncertainties in a computationally efficient manner, climate models can only take us so far, as they require significant computational resources, especially when attempting to characterize extreme events, which are rare and thus demand long and numerous simulations in order to accurately represent their changing statistics. Here we use deep learning in a proof of concept that lays the foundation for emulating global climate model output for different scenarios. We train two "loosely conditioned" Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that emulate daily precipitation output from a fully coupled Earth system model: one GAN modeling Fall-Winter behavior and the other Spring-Summer. Our GANs are trained to produce spatiotemporal samples: 32 days of precipitation over a 64x128 regular grid discretizing the globe. We evaluate the generator with a set of related performance metrics based upon KL divergence, and find the generated samples to be nearly as well matched to the test data as the validation data is to test. We also find the generated samples to accurately estimate the mean number of dry days and mean longest dry spell in the 32 day samples. Our trained GANs can rapidly generate numerous realizations at a vastly reduced computational expense, compared to large ensembles of climate models, which greatly aids in estimating the statistics of extreme events.

climate emulation, extreme climate, impacts, machi↗

Resiliency of Degraded Built Infrastructure

Infrastructure resiliency depends on the ability of infrastructure systems to withstand, adapt, and recover from chronic and extreme stresses. In this white paper, we address the resiliency of infrastructure assets and discuss improving infrastructure stability through development of our understanding of cement and concrete degradation. The resiliency of infrastructure during extreme events relies on the condition, adaptability, and recoverability of built infrastructure (roads, bridges, dams), which serves as the backbone of existing infrastructure systems. Much of the built infrastructure in the US has consistently been rated D+ by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). Aged infrastructure introduces risk to the system, since unreliable infrastructure increases the likelihood of failures under chronic and extreme stress and are particularly concerning when extreme events occur. To understand and account for this added risk from poor infrastructure quality, more research is needed on (i) how the changing environment alters the aging of new and existing built infrastructure and (ii) how degradation causes unique failure mechanisms. The aging of built infrastructure is based on degradation of the structural materials, such as concrete and steel supports, which causes failure. Current work in cement/concrete degradation is based on (i) the development of high strength and degradation resistance concrete mixtures, (ii) methods of assessing the age and reliability of existing structures, and (3) modeling of structural stability and the microstructural evolution of concrete/cement from degradation mechanisms (sulfide attack, carbonation, decalcification). Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has made several investments in studying the durability and degradation of cement based materials, including using SNL-developed codes and methodologies (peridynamics, PFLOTRAN) to focus on chemo-mechanical fracture of cement for energy applications. Additionally, a recent collaboration with the University of Colorado Boulder has included fracture of concrete gravity dams, scaling the existing work to applications in full sized infrastructure problems. Ultimately, SNL has the experience in degradation of cementitious materials to extend the current research portfolio and answer concerns about the resilience of aging built infrastructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improving Short Term Predictability of Hydrologic Models with Deep Learning

Focal Area: Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: A major challenge exists in the lack of reliable predictive modeling of water-cycle extremes using macro-scale hydrologic models that are driven by atmospheric climate data. This causes a critical knowledge gap in understanding the magnitudes, probabilities, and severity of droughts, rainfall, and flooding. Improved understanding of these extreme events requires more accurate modeling at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This shortcoming is especially apparent when complex couplings between atmospheric quantities and engineered systems emerge, such as during extreme precipitation or drought events and at intersections of atmospheric-land-fluvial-ocean systems. Added complexity around representing operations of engineered infrastructure leads to a limited capability to analyze the temporal and spatial implications of compounding extreme events across inland and coastal regions. This results in profound challenges for water and power systems operators, agriculture production, and regional infrastructure planning. The science challenge can be summarized as How can we use AI/ML to improve short term predictability of extreme water-cycle events and associated risk, especially compounding events and extreme rainfall patterns that result in flooding, to inland and coastal communities under different climate scenarios?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗