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DOE OSTI2020

Thermodynamic signatures of an antiferromagnetic quantum critical point inside a superconducting dome

Recent experiments in unconventional superconductors, and in particular iron-based materials, have reported evidence of an antiferromagnetic quantum critical point (AFM-QCP) emerging inside the superconducting dome of the phase diagram. Fluctuations associated with such an AFM-QCP are expected to promote unusual temperature dependencies of thermodynamic quantities. Here, we compute the T dependence of the specific heat C(T) deep inside a fully gapped s +– superconducting state as the AFM-QCP is approached. We find that at the AFM-QCP, the specific heat C(T) vanishes quadratically with temperature, as opposed to the typical exponential suppression seen in fully gapped BCS superconductors. This robust result is due to a nonanalytic contribution to the free energy arising from the general form of the bosonic (AFM) propagator in the SC state. Away from the AFM-QCP, as temperature is lowered, C(T) shows a crossover from a T2 behavior to an exponential behavior, with the crossover temperature scale set by the value of the superconducting gap and the distance to the QCP. As a result, we argue that these features in the specific heat can be used to unambiguously determine the existence of AFM-QCPs inside the superconducting domes of iron-based and other fully gapped unconventional superconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using a Grid-Forming Inverter to Stabilize a Low-Inertia Power System - Maui Hawaiian Island

As power systems around the world integrate greater amounts of wind and solar photovoltaic power, periods of very high instantaneous power shares of inverters, the primary interfacing technology for these generation sources, are complicating system stability and control. The contemporary, primary mode of inverter operation, grid-following, which explicitly assumes the presence of a local, stable voltage waveform, yields operational inadequacy at high instantaneous power shares potentially leading to instability due to the low-inertia conditions, as well as the correlated reduced voltage forming capacity on the respective system. Parallel connected grid-forming inverters, which directly regulate the local voltage, are a solution that is expected to bolster system stability and mitigate the shortcomings of the grid-following technology. In this paper, grid-following and two types of grid-forming inverter control, the traditional linear droop and the recently introduced nonlinear exponential droop (Droop-e), are simulated on a low-inertia, H = 0.48s, high inverter-based resource scenario, 97%, with a validated electromagentic transient domain model of the Hawaiian island of Maui power system. The benefit of a single grid-forming device over its grid-following counterpart is significant, both in terms frequency deviation and voltage stability. Further, the superiority of the Droop-e and the associated secondary power sharing control over both grid-following and linear droop grid-forming technologies is displayed, with improved nadir and rate of change of frequency over the linear droop control.

droop control↗

DOE OSTI2021

C/2014 UN 271 (Bernardinelli-Bernstein): The Nearly Spherical Cow of Comets

Abstract Comet C/2014 UN 271 (Bernardinelli-Bernstein), incoming from the Oort cloud, is remarkable in having the brightest (and presumably largest) nucleus of any well-measured comet and having been discovered at the heliocentric distance r h ≈ 29 au, farther than any Oort cloud comet. In this work, we describe the discovery process and observations and the properties that can be inferred from images recorded until the first reports of activity in 2021 June. The orbit has i = 95°, with a perihelion of 10.97 au to be reached in 2031 and a previous aphelion at 40,400 ± 260 au. Backward integration of the orbit under a standard Galactic tidal model and known stellar encounters suggests a perihelion of q ≈ 18 au on its previous perihelion passage 3.5 Myr ago; hence, the current data could be the first ever obtained of a comet that has not been inside Uranus’s orbit in 4 Gyr. The photometric data show an unresolved nucleus with absolute magnitude H r = 8.0, colors that are typical of comet nuclei or Damocloids, and no secular trend as it traversed the range 34–23 au. For the r -band geometric albedo p r , this implies a diameter of 150 ( p r / 0.04 ) − 0.5 km. There is strong evidence of brightness fluctuations at the ±0.2 mag level, but no rotation period can be discerned. A coma, nominally consistent with a “stationary” 1/ ρ surface brightness distribution, grew in scattering cross section at an exponential rate from A f ρ ≈ 1 to ≈150 m as the comet approached from 28 to 20 au. The activity rate is consistent with a very simple model of sublimation of a surface species in radiative equilibrium with the Sun. The inferred enthalpy of sublimation matches those of CO 2 and NH 3 . More volatile species, such as N 2 , CH 4 , and CO, must be far less abundant on the sublimating surfaces.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Holographic thermal correlators: a tale of Fuchsian ODEs and integration contours

We analyze real-time thermal correlation functions of conserved currents in holographic field theories using the grSK geometry, which provides a contour prescription for their evaluation. We demonstrate its efficacy, arguing that there are situations involving components of conserved currents, or derivative interactions, where such a prescription is, in fact, essential. To this end, we first undertake a careful analysis of the linearized wave equations in AdS black hole backgrounds and identify the branch points of the solutions as a function of (complexified) frequency and momentum. All the equations we study are Fuchsian with only regular singular points that for the most part are associated with the geometric features of the background. Special features, e.g., the appearance of apparent singular points at the horizon, whence outgoing solutions end up being analytic, arise at higher codimension loci in parameter space. Using the grSK geometry, we demonstrate that these apparent singularities do not correspond to any interesting physical features in higher-point functions. We also argue that the Schwinger-Keldysh collapse and KMS conditions, implemented by the grSK geometry, continue to hold even in the presence of such singularities. For charged black holes above a critical charge, we furthermore demonstrate that the energy density operator does not possess an exponentially growing mode, associated with ‘pole-skipping’, from one such apparent singularity. Our analysis suggests that the connection between the scrambling physics of black holes and energy transport has, at best, a limited domain of validity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Linear stability analysis of two fluid columns of different densities and viscosities in a gravity field

The linear stability of a vertical interface separating two miscible fluid columns of different densities and viscosities under the influence of gravity is investigated. This flow possesses a time-dependent reference state (each column accelerates at different rates owing to their different densities) and the interface thickness grows as the square root of time (by diffusion). Numerical integration of the linear initial-value problem is carried out and discussed in detail as a function of vertical and spanwise wavenumbers and the flow parameters. Adjoint-based optimization is performed in order to determine initial conditions that lead to maximum growth of disturbances in finite time. Results indicate that the rate of growth of the perturbation energy at small wavenumbers (less affected by viscosity initially) is dominated by two-dimensional modes (no spanwise variation). Substantial transient growth is observed at higher wave modes initially, followed by asymptotic decay of the perturbations at large time. Sensitivity of perturbation growth with respect to initial time, density and viscosity ratios is investigated. This work is complementary to previous inviscid analysis of this configuration, which showed that the interface was unconditionally unstable at all wave modes, even in the presence of surface tension, and that instability grew as the exponential of time squared.

Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum critical collapse abhors a naked singularity

Classical critical collapse yields naked singularities from smooth initial data, challenging cosmic censorship, and shaping the spectrum of primordial black holes. We show that one-loop vacuum polarization near the threshold qualitatively changes this outcome by dressing the singularity with a horizon within a controlled semiclassical regime. In analytically tractable Einstein-scalar critical spacetimes, a one-loop $s$-wave treatment linearized around self-similar backgrounds shows that regularity uniquely selects an asymptotically Minkowskian, vacuum-polarization state. Its renormalized stress tensor carries a universal quantum growing mode that competes with the classical unstable mode, shifts the critical point, and generates a trapped surface along with a finite mass gap at the new threshold, thereby enforcing horizon formation even under arbitrary fine-tuning. In primordial collapse, the threshold shift enters exponentially into the formation fraction, while the mass gap truncates the low-mass tail, suggesting potentially important consequences for the predicted mass spectrum. Furthermore, these results provide a self-consistent semiclassical treatment of critical collapse and yield sharp predictions within the one-loop, near-critical, linearized regime.

Anomalies↗

DOE OSTI2021

Accurate simulation of surfaces and interfaces of ten FCC metals and steel using Lennard–Jones potentials

Abstract The earlier integration of validated Lennard–Jones (LJ) potentials for 8 fcc metals into materials and biomolecular force fields has advanced multiple research fields, for example, metal–electrolyte interfaces, recognition of biomolecules, colloidal assembly of metal nanostructures, alloys, and catalysis. Here we introduce 12-6 and 9-6 LJ parameters for classical all-atom simulations of 10 further fcc metals (Ac, Ca (α), Ce (γ), Es (β), Fe (γ), Ir, Rh, Sr (α), Th (α), Yb (β)) and stainless steel. The parameters reproduce lattice constants, surface energies, water interfacial energies, and interactions with (bio)organic molecules in 0.1 to 5% agreement with experiment, as well as qualitative mechanical properties under standard conditions. Deviations are reduced up to a factor of one hundred in comparison to earlier Lennard–Jones parameters, embedded atom models, and density functional theory. We also explain a quantitative correlation between atomization energies from experiments and surface energies that supports parameter development. The models are computationally very efficient and applicable to an exponential space of alloys. Compatibility with a wide range of force fields such as the Interface force field (IFF), AMBER, CHARMM, COMPASS, CVFF, DREIDING, OPLS-AA, and PCFF enables reliable simulations of nanostructures up to millions of atoms and microsecond time scales. User-friendly model building and input generation are available in the CHARMM-GUI Nanomaterial Modeler. As a limitation, deviations in mechanical properties vary and are comparable to DFT methods. We discuss the incorporation of reactivity and features of the electronic structure to expand the range of applications and further increase the accuracy.

Kanhaiya, Krishan (ORCID:0000000236222655)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a broadband hard x-ray radiography platform for pulsed-power experiments

In this article, we develop and demonstrate a broadband hard x-ray radiography platform at the Zebra Pulsed Power Laboratory that integrates point-projection radiography, bremsstrahlung measurements, and hard x-ray pinhole imaging, designed to diagnose current-driven, cylindrically compressed matter. Initial laser-pulsed-power coupled experiments revealed that intense background radiation generated during 1 MA Zebra current shots overwhelmed laser-produced hard x-rays, obscuring radiographic images. Using combined spectral and spatial diagnostics, we identify energetic electrons accelerated by return currents as the dominant source of background hard x-rays, with electron energies inferred to be 3–4 MeV based on Monte Carlo simulations, and demonstrate mitigation through modifications to the radiation shielding and return-current configuration. The diagnostic platform was validated using a wire-pinch hard x-ray source, allowing radiographs of static 1-mm-diameter aluminum wires to be obtained while simultaneously measuring x-ray source spectra and spatial emission distributions within a single shot. Measured wire transmission profiles were quantitatively reconstructed using radiation transport simulations that incorporate an experimentally inferred two-temperature exponential x-ray spectrum from bremsstrahlung signal analysis and spatially distributed emission sources identified by pinhole imaging. Agreement between measured and simulated transmission profiles demonstrates the validity of the radiographic and x-ray source characterization approach, establishing this diagnostic platform as a promising tool for diagnosing magnetically driven, high-density plasmas relevant to warm dense matter and inertial fusion energy research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit

Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure de?cit (VPD). VPD has been identi?ed as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought-induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in ‘next-generation’ land-surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant- and global-scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long-term projections of clNovickimate impacts can be made.

Grossiord, Charlotte↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predictor-corrector models for lightweight massive machine-type communications in Industry 4.0

Future Industry 4.0 scenarios are characterized by seamless integration between computational and physical processes. To achieve this objective, dense platforms made of small sensing nodes and other resource constraint devices are ubiquitously deployed. All these devices have a limited number of computational resources, just enough to perform the simple operation they are in charge of. The remaining operations are delegated to powerful gateways that manage sensing nodes, but resources are never unlimited, and as more and more devices are deployed on Industry 4.0 platforms, gateways present more problems to handle massive machine-type communications. Although the problems are diverse, those related to security are especially critical. To enable sensing nodes to establish secure communications, several semiconductor companies are currently promoting a new generation of devices based on Physical Unclonable Functions, whose usage grows every year in many real industrial scenarios. Those hardware devices do not consume any computational resource but force the gateway to keep large key-value catalogues for each individual node. In this context, memory usage is not scalable and processing delays increase exponentially with each new node on the platform. In this paper, we address this challenge through predictor-corrector models, representing the key-value catalogues. Models are mathematically complex, but we argue that they consume less computational resources than current approaches. The lightweight models are based on complex functions managed as Laurent series, cubic spline interpolations, and Boolean functions also developed as series. Unknown parameters in these models are predicted, and eventually corrected to calculate the output value for each given key. The initial parameters are based on the Kane Yee formula. An experimental analysis and a performance evaluation are provided in the experimental section, showing that the proposed approach causes a significant reduction in the resource consumption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integral equation theory of thermodynamics, pair structure, and growing static length scale in metastable hard sphere and Weeks-Chandler-Andersen fluids

Here, we employ the Ornstein-Zernike integral equation theory with the Percus-Yevick (PY) and modified-Verlet (MV) closures to study the equilibrium structural and thermodynamic properties of metastable monodisperse hard sphere and continuous repulsion Weeks-Chandler-Andersen (WCA) fluids under density and temperature conditions where the system is strongly overcompressed or supercooled, respectively. The theoretical results are compared to crystal-avoiding simulations of these dense monodisperse model one-component fluids. The equation of state (EOS) and dimensionless compressibility are computed using both the virial and compressibility routes. For hard spheres, the MV-based virial route EOS and dimensionless compressibility are in very good agreement with simulation for all packing fractions, much better than the PY analogs. The corresponding MV-based predictions for the static structure factor are also very good. The amplitude of density fluctuations on the local cage scale and in the long wavelength limit, and three technically different measures of the density correlation length, are studied with both closures. All five properties grow in a roughly exponential manner with density in the metastable regime up to packing fractions of 58% with no sign of saturation. The MV-based results are in good agreement with our crystal-avoiding simulations. Interestingly, the density dependences of long and short wavelength quantities are closely related. The MV-based theory is also quite accurate for the thermodynamics and structure of supercooled monodisperse WCA fluids. Overall our findings are also relevant as critical input to microscopic theories that relate the equilibrium pair correlation function or static structure factor to dynamical constraints, barriers, and activated relaxation in glass-forming liquids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamical instability in multi-orbiter systems with gas friction

ABSTRACT Closely packed multiplanet systems are known to experience dynamical instability if the spacings between the planets are too small. Such instability can be tempered by the frictional forces acting on the planets from gaseous discs. A similar situation applies to stellar-mass black holes embedded in active galactic nuclei discs around supermassive black holes. We use N-body integrations to evaluate how the frictional damping of orbital eccentricity affects the growth of dynamical instability for a wide range of K (the difference in the planetary semimajor axes in units of the mutual Hill radius) and (unequal) planet masses. We find that, in general, the stable region (large K) and unstable region (small K) are separated by a “grey zone”, where the (in)stability is not guaranteed. We report the numerical values of the critical spacing for stability Kcrit and the “grey zone” range in different systems, and provide fitting formulae for arbitrary frictional forcing strength. We show that the stability of a system depends on the damping time-scale τ relative to the zero-friction instability growth time-scale tinst: two-planet systems are stable if tinst ≳ τ; three-planet systems require tinst ≳ 10τ−100τ. When K is sufficiently small, tinst can be less than the synodic period between the planets, which makes frictional stabilization unlikely to occur. As K increases, tinst tends to grow exponentially, but can also fluctuate by a few orders of magnitude. We also devise a linear map to analyse the dynamical instability of the “planet + test mass” system, and find qualitative agreement with N-body simulations.

Li, Jiaru (ORCID:0000000155507421)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interactive multiscale modeling to bridge atomic properties and electrochemical performance in Li-CO 2 battery design

Li-CO 2 batteries are promising energy storage systems due to their high theoretical energy density and CO 2 fixation capability, relying on reversible Li 2 CO 3 /C formation during discharge/charge cycles. Here, we present a multiscale modeling framework integrating Density Functional Theory (DFT), Ab-Initio Molecular Dynamics (AIMD), classical Molecular Dynamics (MD), and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) to investigate atomic and cell-level properties. The considered Li-CO 2 battery consists of a lithium metal anode, an ionic liquid electrolyte, and a carbon cloth cathode with Sb 0.67 Bi 1.33 Te 3 catalyst. DFT and AIMD determined the electrical conductivities of Sb 0.67 Bi 1.33 Te 3 and Li 2 CO 3 using the Kubo–Greenwood formalism and studied the CO 2 reduction mechanism on the cathode catalyst. MD simulations calculated the CO 2 diffusion coefficient, Li + transference number, ionic conductivity, and Li + solvation structure. The FEA model, parameterized with atomistic simulation data, reproduced the available experimental voltage–capacity profile at 1 mA/cm 2 and revealed spatio-temporal variations in Li 2 CO 3 /C deposition, porosity, and CO 2 concentration dependence on discharge rates in the cathode. Accordingly, Li 2 CO 3 can form large and thin film deposits, leading to dispersed and local porosity changes at 0.1 mA/cm 2 and 1 mA/cm 2 , respectively. The capacity decreases exponentially from 81,570 mAh/g at 0.1 mA/cm 2 to 6200 mAh/g at 1 mA/cm 2 , due to pore clogging from excessive discharge product deposition that limits CO 2 transport to the cathode interior. Therefore, the performance of Li-CO 2 batteries can be improved by enhancing CO 2 transport, regulating Li 2 CO 3 deposition, and optimizing cathode architecture.

Battery performance↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement uncertainty of rossi-alpha neutron experiments

Rossi-alpha neutron experiments are used to estimate the prompt neutron decay constant of a fissile assembly, a quantity of widespread interest in applications including in nuclear nonproliferation and criticality safety. This work develops a mathematical model to efficiently estimate measurement uncertainty of Rossi-alpha neutron experiments inferred from a two-exponential fit model with histogram binning. The derived uncertainty estimates were validated using repeated Rossi-alpha measurements of a subcritical, 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium with nickel, copper, tungsten, and polyethylene reflectors. The estimates of uncertainty for the histogram data produced by the model were conservative and agree with the reference uncertainties within noise. The estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant uncertainty agreed with the reference uncertainties within one standard deviation. In conclusion, the proposed model will reduce total measurement times, ultimately reducing operational and procedural costs in application.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advocating for view and daylight in buildings: Next steps

With the exponential growth in population and commensurate increased density in urban cities, access to daylight and views to nature is being severely curtailed in buildings. In parallel, increasingly urgent demands to sharply reduce building energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions are being made to mitigate climate change. There are many challenges and performance tradeoffs associated with the building facade (i.e., daylight and view versus solar and glare control); increased prioritization of health and well-being as a fundamental human requirement could adversely affect building energy-efficiency. Given the current state of knowledge on the effects of daylight and view on health and well-being in buildings, we identify critical needs in research, tools and technologies that if satisfied may enable more effective use of daylight and view in buildings within the constraints of climate change. Lack of knowledge regarding the complex causal mechanisms of window views on human factors is a severely limiting factor in forward progress. Current models and methods to derive bidirectional scattering distribution functions (BSDFs) will need to be modified. Developers of energy-efficient window technologies will need more guidance to shape product development. Advanced window technologies and integrated design can enable attainment of both health and well-being and net zero energy goals, but considerable work will be needed to make such options turnkey and broadly available.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Layer Time Control for Large Scale Additive Manufacturing Using High Performance Computing

This work proposes to optimize an additive manufacturing AM process to reduce energy and printing cost. The polymer AM process is inherently dependent on the time-temperature history of each layer to maintain geometric tolerances and mechanical integrity. Our preliminary study shows that regression-based layer time control model using thermal images could result in up to 30% build time reduction for simple geometries. This proposed work would use high-performance computing (HPC) to couple the data-driven model with thermal simulation for better predicting layer temperature profiles, improving throughput of large-scale additive manufacturing, and reducing its energy cost. We have developed a method to optimize a layer deposition time (a.k.a. layer time) for large-scale AM via physics-based simulations. A long layer time leads to an over-cooled surface on which a new layer is deposited, and therefore, it may result in a weak bonding or debonding between layers, cracking, or warping. A short layer time leads to a high temperature of the structure due to insufficient cooling, and therefore, the structure may not be stiff enough and may collapse during manufacturing. Therefore, it is important to estimate the optimal layer time in additive manufacturing for a high-quality product. The temperature of a top layer right before deposition is recommended to be slightly higher than the glass temperature of the material. A temperature cooling was approximated to an exponential function of time, and the optimized layer time was obtained based on a target temperature while maintaining a minimal printing time. The material used is carbon fiber-reinforced polycarbonate (CF/PC), and the large-scale deposition system used is LSAM TM from Thermwood Corporation. Three different layer time cases were used for experiments, and a series of thermal images were obtained via an infra-red (IR) camera during the entire AM processes. AM process simulations were performed using a finite element method and the temperature profiles from the simulation were in good agreements with those from experiments. The layer time optimization was performed based on the temperature profiles from the simulations. A layer temperature with the optimal layer time was confirmed as the target temperature through simulation. In addition to the development of a layer time optimization method, we have developed a numerical framework for AM simulation with element activations in sync with toolpath, based on an open source finite element framework, DEAL.II. A major portion of this work was presented at SAMPE 2022 Conference and Exhibition on May 2022, and published in Proceedings of SAMPE 2022.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrating high resolution drone imagery and forest inventory to distinguish canopy and understory trees and quantify their contributions to forest structure and dynamics

Tree growth and survival differ strongly between canopy trees (those directly exposed to overhead light), and understory trees. However, the structural complexity of many tropical forests makes it difficult to determine canopy positions. The integration of remote sensing and ground-based data enables this determination and measurements of how canopy and understory trees differ in structure and dynamics. Here we analyzed 2 cm resolution RGB imagery collected by a Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS), also known as drone, together with two decades of bi-annual tree censuses for 2 ha of old growth forest in the Central Amazon. We delineated all crowns visible in the imagery and linked each crown to a tagged stem through field work. Canopy trees constituted 40% of the 1244 inventoried trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) > 10 cm, and accounted for ~70% of aboveground carbon stocks and wood productivity. The probability of being in the canopy increased logistically with tree diameter, passing through 50% at 23.5 cm DBH. Diameter growth was on average twice as large in canopy trees as in understory trees. Growth rates were unrelated to diameter in canopy trees and positively related to diameter in understory trees, consistent with the idea that light availability increases with diameter in the understory but not the canopy. The whole stand size distribution was best fit by a Weibull distribution, whereas the separate size distributions of understory trees or canopy trees > 25 cm DBH were equally well fit by exponential and Weibull distributions, consistent with mechanistic forest models. The identification and field mapping of crowns seen in a high resolution orthomosaic revealed new patterns in the structure and dynamics of trees of canopy vs. understory at this site, demonstrating the value of traditional tree censuses with drone remote sensing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗