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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Discrimination of Seismic Events (2006–2020) in North Korea Using P/Lg Amplitude Ratios from Regional Stations and a Bivariate Discriminant Function

Two events of magnitude (m b ) 3.6–3.8 occurred in southern North Korea (NK) on 27 June 2019 and 11 May 2020. Although these events were located ~330–400 km from the known nuclear test site, the fact that they occurred within the territory of NK, a country with a recent history of underground nuclear tests, made them events of interest for the monitoring community. In this work, we used P/Lg ratios from regional stations to categorize seismic events that occurred in NK from 2006 to May 2020, including these two recent events, the six declared NK nuclear tests, and the cavity collapse and triggered earthquakes that followed the 3 September 2017 nuclear explosion. We were able to separate the cavity collapse from the population of nuclear explosions. However, based on P/Lg ratios, the distinction between the earthquakes and the cavity collapse is ambiguous. The performed discriminant analyses suggest that combining Pg/Lg and Pn/Lg ratios results in improved discriminant power compared with any of the ratio types alone. We used the two ratio types jointly in a quadratic discriminant function and successfully classified the six declared nuclear tests and the triggered earthquakes that followed the September 2017 explosion. Our analyses also confirm that the recent southern events of June 2019 and May 2020 are both tectonic earthquakes that occurred naturally.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires

In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.

O'Neill, Susan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Seismic Event Characterization Using Full Moment Tensors on the Hypersphere

Moment tensor solutions provide insights into the deformation that has occurred in the source region of a seismic event and are therefore of great value in identifying different types of seismic sources, such as when monitoring for underground nuclear tests. Despite this utility, inversion of waveforms recorded by seismometers for their full seismic moment tensor is not yet routine, and development of robust methods to classify events based on this information is in its infancy. Here, we assemble an inventory of 1405 full moment tensor solutions that include explosive, earthquake, and collapse events, and investigate the use of anisotropic probability distribution functions on the 5D hypersphere to discriminate between these sources. Using a Bayesian classifier, we obtain optimal success rates of 98.4% across all events and demonstrate that modification of the prior probabilities provides a natural way to alter the balance between not missing desirable events (such as explosions) versus misclassifying large numbers of undesired events (such as earthquakes). The approach is specifically designed to progress from traditional, bipolar event screening metrics to more generalized event identification across multiple types of seismic sources. Despite current databases containing insufficient numbers of events to definitively demonstrate at present, we also find intriguing evidence of subgroupings within individual source populations on the hypersphere, for example, between chemical and nuclear explosions, raising the potential possibility of discriminating between these event types in the future.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

A real-time search for Type Ia Supernovae with late-time interactions with circumstellar material in ZTF data

While it is generally accepted that Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are the terminal explosions of white dwarfs (WDs), the nature of their progenitor systems and the mechanisms that lead up to these explosions remain widely debated. In rare cases, the SN ejecta interact with circumstellar material (CSM) that had previously been ejected from the progenitor system. The longer the delay between the creation of the CSM and the SN explosion, the greater the distance between the SN explosion site and the CSM and the later the onset of the interaction. The unknown distance between the CSM and SN explosion site makes it impossible to predict when the interaction will start. If the time between the SN explosion and the onset of the CSM interaction is of the order of several months to years, the SN has generally faded and it is no longer actively followed up on. This makes it even more difficult to detect the interaction while it is happening. In this work, we report on a real-time monitoring programme running between 13 November 2023 and 9 July 2024. It monitored 6914 SNe Ia for signs of late-time rebrightening using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). Flagged candidates were rapidly followed up on with photometry and spectroscopy to confirm the late-time excess and its position. We report the discovery of a ∼50 day rebrightening event in SN 2020qxz around 1200 rest-frame days after the peak of its light curve. SN 2020qxz exhibited signs of an early CSM interaction, but had faded from view over two years before its reappearance. Initial follow-up spectroscopy revealed the presence of four emission lines, while later follow-up spectroscopy showed that these had faded shortly after the end of the ZTF-detected rebrightening event. Our best match for these emission lines are H β (blueshifted by ∼5900 km s −1 ) and Ca II λ8542 , N I λ8567 , and K I λλ8763, 8767 (all blueshifted by 5100 km s −1 ; although we note that the line identifications are uncertain). This shows that catching and following up on late-time interactions as they occur can offer new clues on the nature of the progenitor systems that produce these SNe by putting constraints on the possible type of donor star. The only way to do this systematically is to use large sky surveys such as ZTF and the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to monitor a large sample of objects for the rare events that reappear long after the object has faded from view.

circumstellar matter↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subsurface spectroscopy of heterogeneous materials using optical wavefront shaping

Plastic-bonded explosives and propellants consist of energetic molecular crystals embedded in a polymer matrix that also includes additives, such as taggants, plasticizers, grit, antioxidants, etc. Furthermore, this heterogeneous composition renders these materials optically opaque, limiting optical characterization techniques (e.g., Raman spectroscopy) to probing chemical reactions at the sur-face. However, many reactions of interest are believed to occur inside the material where current optical techniques can not probe. To address this challenge, we have developed a new optical technique that utilizes feedback assisted wavefront shaping (using spatial light modulators) to focus probe light inside a heterogeneous material, such that we can perform subsurface spectroscopy. Recently, we demonstrated this technique by monitoring subsurface photodegradation and thermal degradation of Eu-doped molecular crystals using both fluorescence and Raman spectroscopy. Based off these successes we are now looking into improvements to this technique to allow for greater time resolution, including replacing our spatial light modulators with fast digital mirror devices, using ns optical phase conjugation, and self-healing optical beams.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

On various mechanisms of shear wave generation from underground chemical explosions in hard rocks

Significant shear waves observed during underground explosions can make them look similar to natural earthquakes. In the near field, they can be caused by the source geometry and emplacement conditions, heterogeneous and anisotropic properties of the rock mass, relaxation of a non-uniform in situ stress around the source after the departure of the shock wave as well as by activation of nearby faults. Here, the stress relaxation mechanism is important at depth when the difference in main principal stresses becomes significant. Another mechanism of shear motion generation is due to explosive gas flow from the source cavity into the cracks initiated by the shock wave and joints connected to the cavity. Also, the shock wave from the explosion can cause weakening of the rock either due to permanent damage or shock-induced liquefaction at saturated joints. Numerical modelling of underground chemical explosions in hard rock at various confinement stresses has been conducted to compare various mechanisms of shear wave generation and their seismic characteristics with that of a simple fault rupture process observed during an earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of fission and activation products in molten salt reactors and their potential impact on the radionuclide monitoring stations of the International Monitoring System

Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are one of six Generation IV reactor designs currently under development around the world. Because of the unique operating conditions of MSRs, which include molten fuel and the continuous removal of gaseous fission products during operation, work was performed to analyze the potential impact of emissions on the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Simulations were performed to predict the production of IMS-relevant radionuclides in four MSR designs operating under two scenarios – (1) a sealed reactor with releases only during operational shutdown and (2) continuous reprocessing or sparging of the fuel salt. From these production estimates the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures were extracted and compared to three current reactor designs (PWR, BWR, RBMK). In the cases where continuous reprocessing of the fuel salt occurred both the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures are nearly indistinguishable from a nuclear explosion. Estimates were also made of the potential emission rate of radioxenon for three reactor designs and it was found that MSRs have the potential to emit radioxenon isotopes at a rate of 1015 – 8×1016 Bq/d for 133Xe if no abatement is used. An assessment was also made of activation products using a candidate fuel salt (FLiBe) mixed with corrosion products for the Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR-LF1)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring thermal profiles in high explosives using neural networks

We present a new method for calculating the temperature profile of high explosive (HE) material using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). To train/test the CNN, we have developed a hybrid experiment/simulation method for collecting acoustic and temperature data. We experimentally heat cylindrical containers of HE material until detonation/deflagration, where we continuously measure the acoustic bursts through the HE using multiple acoustic transducers lined around the exterior container circumference. However, measuring the temperature profile in the HE in an experiment would require inserting a large number of thermal probes, which would disrupt the heating process. Thus, we use two thermal probes, one at the HE center and one at the wall. We then use numerical simulation of the heating process to calculate the temperature distribution and correct the simulated temperatures based on the experimental center and wall temperatures. We calculate temperature errors on the order of 15 °C, which is ∼12% of the range of temperatures in the experiment. We also investigate how the algorithm’s accuracy is affected by the number of acoustic receivers used to collect each measurement and the resolution of the temperature prediction. This work provides a means of assessing the safety status of HE material, which cannot be achieved using existing temperature measurement methods. In addition, it has implications for a range of other applications where internal temperature profile measurements would provide critical information. These applications include detecting chemical reactions, observing thermodynamic processes such as combustion, monitoring metal or plastic casting, determining the energy density in thermal storage capsules, and identifying abnormal battery operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact Noise Monitoring for Gelled Water Mitigation Test Series - North Pad

This report represents the 1st shot (in a series of 8) conducted on September 15, 2022. One 10 lb C4 charge (along with ~200g of Potassium Bromide (KBr)) was detonated inside 9920 North Pad Boom Box. Noise sampling was performed at several points on Site 9920 to characterize the noise mitigation provided by the block structure. This data will help inform safe locations for Members of the Workforce (MOWs) to be located during future testing with similar net explosive weights. During the test, all MOW/site visitors were bunkered inside Building 9926/Mobile Firing Control Point (MFCP) to prevent personnel exposure to any hazards associated with the testing

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the connection between compact object mergers and fast X-ray transients

Context. The connection between compact object mergers and some extragalactic fast X-ray transients (FXRTs) has long been hypothesised but never ultimately established. Aims. In this work, we investigate two FXRTs, the LEIA X-ray Transient LXT 240402A and the Einstein Probe EP 250207b, whose precise positions lie close to nearby (z ≲ 0.1) quiescent galaxies with a negligible probability of chance coincidence, identifying them as particularly promising cases of merger-driven explosions in the local Universe. Methods. We used Chandra to derive accurate localisations for both events and secure otherwise ambiguous associations with their optical counterparts. Deep optical and near-infrared observations with VLT, GTC, and LBT were performed to characterise the surrounding environment and search for kilonova emission, the hallmark of neutron star mergers. Complementary early-time X-ray monitoring with Swift and Einstein Probe was used to constrain the non-thermal afterglow. Results. We find that both FXRTs remain compatible with a compact binary merger progenitor, which produced low-mass ejecta and kilonova emission subdominant to the afterglow. However, alternative explanations such as a distant (z ≳ 1) core-collapse supernova cannot be conclusively ruled out.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discriminating Types of Volcanic Electrical Activity: Toward an Eruption Detection Algorithm

Abstract We present a method for classification of the two distinct types of electrical activity that occur during an explosive volcanic eruption: vent discharges and lightning. Vent discharges occur at the onset of an explosion and create a distinctive radio frequency signature called continual radio frequency. Seconds to minutes after the onset of the eruption, lightning begins to occur throughout the eruption column. We use logistic regression to classify a radio frequency impulse as being part of either a lightning flash or a period of continual radio frequency. The classifier uses the number of peaks in the amplitude envelope from 1 ms windows before and after the impulsive very high frequency waveform, with an average accuracy of 97.9%. We propose that this method could be used in an algorithm to determine when explosive eruptions occurred by identification of the distinctive signatures of vent discharges and lightning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying fission gas adsorption onto natural clinoptilolite in the presence of environmental air and water

Adsorption of noble gas fission products onto naturally occurring minerals is of interest for its potential to retain or retard emissions from nuclear fuel reprocessing operations or underground nuclear explosions. However, experimental studies of trace noble gas adsorption in the presence of air and water have largely focused on synthetic materials, such as activated carbon or metal-organic frameworks. Here, in this study, adsorption of Kr and Xe onto the naturally occurring zeolitic mineral clinoptilolite is studied in the presence of nitrogen and water. By varying the composition of the gas phase and monitoring the change in the combined adsorbate mass, the adsorbed concentration of noble gas is calculated gravimetrically. For dry clinoptilolite, the concentration of adsorbed Kr and Xe is linearly correlated with noble gas pressure and Henry's Law appears satisfactory, despite the presence of nitrogen at atmospheric pressures. However, the presence of water significantly reduces the adsorbed concentration of both Kr and Xe, which is typical in nanoporous sorbents. Here, an empirical bivariate model is presented, combining the Henry's Law adsorption model for a dry adsorbent with the exponential reduction in the presence of water, as reported by Lungu and Underhill in 1999. This model provides a means to estimate the adsorbate concentration at the trace partial pressures and higher water contents relevant to field-scale modeling of fission gas transport through the vadose zone.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic waves from the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship rocket explosion travelling in the elevated ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel

SUMMARY The ability to detect low-frequency sounds from distant energetic events depends on the temperature and wind structure of the atmosphere. Thus, from time to time surface-based acoustic detectors may not be able to capture sounds arriving from certain directions. However, the temperature minimum at the tropopause may create an acoustic duct called the ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel that could transmit acoustic waves laterally—but perhaps not to the ground. If true, then elevated sensors such as those borne aloft by balloons would record the signatures even in regions where ground-based sensors cannot. This has been difficult to prove because high altitude acoustic sources are rare and balloon deployments are sporadic. This work describes the detection and characterization of powerful acoustic waves generated during the launch and terminal explosion of the SpaceX Starship rocket on 2023 April 20 using a pair of microbarometers on a stratospheric balloon. The signals travelled through the AtmoSOFAR channel, carrying information about the size and nature of their source. This channel also appears to leak some acoustic energy to the ground, in agreement with previous studies. The acoustic yield of the Starship terminal explosion was on the order of $10^3$ tons trinitrotoluene equivalent, which agrees with the estimated fuel load of the vehicle to about a factor of 2, but is two orders of magnitude larger than optical estimates. These results support an earlier study that claimed lateral transmission of sound from a smaller rocket through the AtmoSOFAR channel. The transmission of source information through the AtmoSOFAR channel motivates its use for monitoring other natural and anthropogenic events using balloon-borne sensors. This may become increasingly important as more and more private and government entities conduct spacecraft launches and reentries. It may also provide a means of monitoring clear air turbulence and other sound-generating atmospheric phenomena at a distance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simultaneous imaging of vibrational, rotational, and electronic wave-packet dynamics in a triatomic molecule

Light-induced molecular dynamics often involve the excitation of several electronic, vibrational, and rotational states. Since the ensuing electronic and nuclear motion determines the pathways and outcomes of photoinduced reactions, our ability to monitor and understand these dynamics is crucial for molecular physics, physical chemistry, and photobiology. However, characterizing this complex motion represents a significant challenge when different degrees of freedom are strongly coupled. In this Letter, we demonstrate how the interplay between vibrational, rotational, and electronic degrees of freedom governs the evolution of molecular wave packets in the low-lying states of strong-field-ionized sulfur dioxide. Using time-resolved Coulomb explosion imaging (CEI) and quantum mechanical wave packet simulations, we directly map the bending vibrations of the molecule, show how the vibrational wave packet is influenced by molecular alignment, and elucidate the consequences of nuclear motion for the coupling between the two lowest electronic states of the cation. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that multicoincident CEI can be an efficient experimental tool for characterizing coupled electronic and nuclear motion in polyatomic molecules.

Atomic & molecular processes in external fields↗
DOE OSTI2024

Localization of infrasonic sources via Bayesian back projection

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework is investigated for event-specific localization of infrasonic sources using back projection ray tracing. Direction-of-arrival information from array-based detection analysis is used to initialize a back projection ray path originating from the detecting array location and quantifying propagation characteristics from hypothetical source locations. The Fisher statistic, computed from the array’s beam coherence, is mapped into uncertainty in the launch angles of the ray path. Auxiliary parameters previously introduced for solving the Transport equation to compute geometric spreading along ray paths are used to map uncertainty in the ray launch angles into spatial and temporal uncertainties in the ray path. An atmospheric ensemble approach is applied to account for atmospheric uncertainty, and the relation between uncertainties in the atmospheric state and confidence in estimated localization are evaluated using several ensembles with specified variances. The method is evaluated using a synthetic event in the western United States constructed via forward propagation simulations as well as a single-station, multi-arrival detection from a surface explosion in the western United States. Localization results using this event-specific approach are more accurate and exhibit improved precision than existing Bayesian localization methods that leverage generalized, pre-computed propagation statistics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

AmpSuite

Seismic amplitudes offer vital information about explosion source characteristics, including discrimination and yield estimation. To take advantage of this, we developed an interactive Python package to measure, control data quality, generate broad area propagation models and perform discrimination and estimate yield. Propagation models are essential in support of transportable yield and broad area discrimination. The key benefit of this package will be its ability to continuously integrate data and new techniques. The AmpSuite framework will provide standardized, repeatable, and accurate model generation and characterization routines. The capability is crucial for monitoring agencies tasked with rapid and high-quality seismic event characterization. The AmpSuite software includes a series of independent modules to perform: • Direct Phase Amplitude Measurement and Storage • Coda Envelope Measurement and Storage • Data Quality Control • New Propagation Model Developments • Seismic Discrimination and Analysis • Yield Estimation and supporting utility software. The AmpSuite software provides comprehensive solutions for monitoring agencies seeking to optimize model generation and event analysis within a contemporary Python framework. Stakeholders (AFTAC) have begun to move towards the Python language for scientific analysis as a new workforce emerges.

Alfaro, Richard↗