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At least 217 records · Page 12

GraphAlign: Graph-Enabled Machine Learning for Seismic Event Filtering

This report summarizes results from a 2 year effort to improve the current automated seismic event processing system by leveraging machine learning models that can operated over the inherent graph data structure of a seismic sensor network. Specifically, the GraphAlign project seeks to utilize prior information on which stations are more likely to detect signals originating from particular geographic regions to inform event filtering. To date, the GraphAlign team has developed a Graphical Neural Network (GNN) model to filter out false events generated by the Global Associator (GA) algorithm. The algorithm operates directly on waveform data that has been associated to an event by building a variable sized graph of station waveforms nodes with edge relations to an event location node. This builds off of previous work where random forest models were used to do the same task using hand crafted features. The GNN model performance was analyzed using an 8 week IMS/IDC dataset, and it was demonstrated that the GNN outperforms the random forest baseline. We provide additional error analysis of which events the GNN model performs well and poorly against concluded by future directions for improvements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Chimera Events for Performance Studies of the MicroBooNE Deep Learning-based Low Energy Excess Search

MicroBooNE is a short baseline neutrino oscillation experiment based at Fermilab that employs Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology. One of its target measurements is to investigate the nature of the excess of low energy electron-like events observed by MiniBooNE. This measurement will require an excellent understanding of systematic uncertainties, obtained through testing the performance of reconstruction algorithms on samples with known properties. However, using exclusively Monte Carlo events for this task is limited by how well the discrepancies between simulation and data are understood. An alternative is to test against samples of “chimera” events, which are made up of separate single-particle components from data that are combined to create neutrino-like events. These chimera events can be used to help quantify systematic uncertainties. This note covers the performance and status of creating and using chimera events that match a target neutrino topology in MicroBooNE.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

GridCoPilot for Thermal Events: An LLM-Based Platform for Power Grid Reliability Analysis

Large Language Models show promise for translating natural language into database queries, but deploying such systems in safety-critical domains requires high reliability. We present an application of GridCoPilot to thermal event analysis (heatwaves and coldwaves) that affect power grid reliability. Our approach uses a LangChain SQL Agent to translate natural language queries into auditable SQL statements, with deterministic visualization routines that parse the structured query results. We introduce structural framing as a design principle, we integrate a NERC-region-level event library with county-level meteorology and decompose the combined data into three relational tables (event metadata, county-level event details, and a county-to-NERC subregion mapping), using prompt-guided joins to direct the model toward correct multi-table queries. For two core analytical patterns (identifying worst events by region and by region-year), the system achieved 100% SQL accuracy across all 16 NERC subregions and both event types (64 queries total). These results validate the approach for target use cases, though performance on diverse natural language formulations requires further investigation. We discuss design trade-offs, failure modes including JSON output truncation, and pathways for extending this approach to other hazard domains.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Estimating IDP Origins Using ACLED Political Violence Events: Validation with Lebanon IDP Flow Data

A key input in modeling population distribution and flows following conflict events is the inclusion of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) flows between administrative units within a country. These flows are critical for capturing population movement and redistribution driven by current events, particularly conflict. In some cases, IDP destination data are available while origin data is incomplete or unavailable. This creates a gap in understanding where displacement is occurring, limiting the ability to model population redistribution accurately. Without origin data, it is not possible to reallocate population flows or accurately represent where displacement is occurring within the country. This report evaluates whether Armed Conflict Location Event Data (ACLED) political violence event data can be used to estimate IDP origin distributions when direct origin data are unavailable. The approach is validated using historical IDP flow data from Lebanon, where both origins and destinations are observed. Results show that ACLED event distributions strongly correspond to observed IDP-origin patterns, particularly when using cumulative 60-day event windows. The method is most reliable for identifying major origin districts and approximating proportional origin shares. However, it is not intended to reconstruct exact individual displacement flows, but rather to provide a probabilistic spatial allocation of displacement origins.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

OGLE-2016-BLG-1227L: A Wide-separation Planet from a Very Short-timescale Microlensing Event

We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-1227. The light curve of this short-duration event appears to be a single-lens event affected by severe finite-source effects. Analysis of the light curve based on a single-lens single-source (1L1S) model yields very small values of the event timescale, t{sub E}∼3.5 days, and the angular Einstein radius, θ{sub E}∼0.009 mas, making the lens a candidate of a free-floating planet. Close inspection reveals that the 1L1S solution leaves small residuals with an amplitude of ΔI ≲ 0.03 mag. We find that the residuals are explained by the existence of an additional widely separated heavier lens component, indicating that the lens is a wide-separation planetary system rather than a free-floating planet. From Bayesian analysis, it is estimated that the planet has a mass of M{sub p}=0.79{sub −0.39}{sup +1.30} M{sub J} and it is orbiting a low-mass host star with a mass of M{sub host}=0.10{sub −0.05}{sup +0.17} M{sub ⊙} located with a projected separation of a{sub ⊥}=3.4{sub −1.0}{sup +2.1} au. The planetary system is located in the Galactic bulge with a line-of-sight separation from the source star of D{sub LS}=1.21{sub −0.63}{sup +0.96} kpc. The event shows that there is a range of deviations in the signatures of host stars for apparently isolated planetary lensing events and that it is possible to identify a host even when a deviation is subtle.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Free-floating or Wide-orbit Planet in the Microlensing Event OGLE-2019-BLG-0551

High-cadence observations of the Galactic bulge by the microlensing surveys led to the discovery of a handful of extremely short-timescale microlensing events that can be attributed to free-floating or wide-orbit planets. Here, we report the discovery of another strong free-floating planet candidate, which was found from the analysis of the gravitational microlensing event OGLE-2019-BLG-0551. The light curve of the event is characterized by a very short duration (≲3 days) and a very small amplitude (≲0.1 mag). From modeling of the light curve, we find that the Einstein timescale, t{sub E}=0.381±0.017 day, is much shorter, and the angular Einstein radius, θ{sub E}=4.35±0.34 μas, is much smaller than those of typical lensing events produced by stellar-mass lenses (t{sub E}∼20 days, θ{sub E}∼0.3 mas), indicating that the lens is very likely to be a planetary-mass object. We conduct an extensive search for possible signatures of a companion star in the light curve of the event, finding no significant evidence for the putative host star. For the first time, we also demonstrate that the angular Einstein radius of the lens does not depend on blending in the low-magnification events with strong finite source effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PopSyCLE: A New Population Synthesis Code for Compact Object Microlensing Events

We present a new Milky Way microlensing simulation code, dubbed PopSyCLE (Population Synthesis for Compact object Lensing Events). PopSyCLE is the first resolved microlensing simulation to include a compact object distribution derived from numerical supernovae explosion models and both astrometric and photometric microlensing effects. We demonstrate the capabilities of PopSyCLE by investigating the optimal way to find black holes (BHs) with microlensing. Candidate BHs have typically been selected from wide-field photometric microlensing surveys, such as OGLE, by selecting events with long Einstein crossing times (tE > 120 days). These events can be selected at closest approach and monitored astrometrically in order to constrain the mass of each lens; PopSyCLE predicts a BH detection rate of ~40% for such a program. We find that the detection rate can be enhanced to ~ 85% by selecting events with both tE > 120 days and a microlensing parallax of πE < 0.08. Unfortunately, such a selection criterion cannot be applied during the event as πE requires both pre- and post-peak photometry. However, historical microlensing events from photometric surveys can be revisited using this new selection criteria in order to statistically constrain the abundance of BHs in the Milky Way. The future WFIRST microlensing survey provides both precise photometry and astrometry and will yield individual masses of O(100 - 1000) black holes, which is at least an order of magnitude more than is possible with individual candidate follow-up with current facilities. The resulting sample of BH masses from WFIRST will begin to constrain the shape of the black hole present-day mass function, BH multiplicity, and BH kick velocity distributions

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and -IV

Abstract Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year, and surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time (t E) distribution. However, systematics in individual light curves as well as oversimplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and -IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the t E distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and the previous analyses overestimated the number of t E > 100 day events due to their oversimplistic model ignoring parallax effects. We use our fits to identify the hundreds filling a regime in the microlensing parameter space that are 50% pure of black holes. Finally, we have released the largest-ever catalog of Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimates for microlensing events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

IceCat-1: The IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks

We present a catalog of likely astrophysical neutrino track-like events from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. IceCube began reporting likely astrophysical neutrinos in 2016, and this system was updated in 2019. The catalog presented here includes events that were reported in real time since 2019, as well as events identified in archival data samples starting from 2011. We report 275 neutrino events from two selection channels as the first entries in the catalog, the IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks, which will see ongoing extensions with additional alerts. The Gold and Bronze alert channels respectively provide neutrino candidates with a 50% and 30% probability of being astrophysical, on average assuming an astrophysical neutrino power-law energy spectral index of 2.19. For each neutrino alert, we provide the reconstructed energy, direction, false-alarm rate, probability of being astrophysical in origin, and likelihood contours describing the spatial uncertainty in the alert's reconstructed location. We also investigate a directional correlation of these neutrino events with gamma-ray and X-ray catalogs, including 4FGL, 3HWC, TeVCat, and Swift-BAT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coast

Extreme, tsunami-like wave runup events in the absence of earthquakes or landslides have been attributed to trapped waves over shallow bathymetry, long waves created by atmospheric disturbances, and long waves generated by abrupt breaking. These runup events are associated with inland excursions of hundreds of meters and periods of minutes. While the theory of radiation stress implies that nearshore energy transfer from the carrier waves to the infragravity waves can also lead to very large runup, there have not been observations of runup events induced by this process with magnitudes and periods comparable to the other three mechanisms. This work presents observations of several runup events in the US Pacific Northwest that are comparable to extreme runup events related to the other three mechanisms. It also discusses possible generation mechanisms and shows that energy transfer from carrier waves to bound infragravity waves is a plausible generation mechanism. In addition, a method to predict and forecast extreme runup events with similar characteristics is presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methods, systems, and devices for accurate signal timing of power component events

Disclosed herein are methods, systems, and devices for system event detection associated with power grid components. Methods include detecting, at a plurality of sensors, emissions from a system event associated with at least one winding of a power component. Methods also include determining, using a processor, a plurality of event parameters based, at least in part, on measurements made by the plurality of sensors, the event parameters identifying arrival times of the emissions at each of the plurality of sensors. Methods further include generating, using the processor, an output identifying an estimate of a position of the system event within the power component, the estimate being generated based, at least in part, on the arrival times identified by the plurality of event parameters.

Wu, Keshang↗

Multi-Level Impacts of Extreme Climate-Related Events on Food Supply Chain: Idaho Potato's Case Study

Background: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, floods, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increasing frequencies and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature reduces overall yields of the desirable crops but proliferates weeds and harmful pests. Current data shows that every year U.S. farmers spend more than 11 billion USD to fight weeds and this number is expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Due to droughts, the water required for irrigation is becoming scarcer. Since many areas are becoming climatically unusable for crop production, the amount of farmland area is shrinking rapidly. In addition, changes in precipitation patterns are causing crop failures and negatively impacting expected yields. In this study, we investigated how different extreme climate events impact different stages of a food supply chain. Approach: As a case study, we chose Idaho’s potato supply chain (SC). Idaho is the top potato producing state in the U.S. and contributes around 30% of the nation’s potato production. Using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, we developed a multi-echelon potato supply chain computer simulation model with six types of agents – seed producers, farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the baseline scenario, we developed two additional climate-related disruption events – drought and snowstorm. We investigated how each of these disruption events impacts different stakeholders across the supply chain in terms of revenue and some other key performance metrics such as lead time, food waste, number of delayed orders, and order fulfillment rate. Results: Extreme climate events not only impact the growers but there is also cascading ripple effects downstream of the supply chain. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural SC to understand the vulnerabilities of the different links. The findings would potentially help to adopt new policies for the well-being of the overall SC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Efforts to Gain Insight into Historical Leak Events from the Single-Shell Tank A-105 in the Hanford 241-A Tank Farm - 20113

The 241-A Tank Farm is a single-shell tank (SST) farm constructed to store process waste from Hanford nuclear operations. Millions of gallons of nuclear waste were stored in the 241-A Tank Farm SSTs and some of the SSTs leaked in the past. In addition, spills and pipeline leaks during transfers and storage and intentional discharges to cribs and trenches resulted in releasing waste to the ground. Tank liner leaks are referred to as 'leaks' and all other discharges to the soil are referred to as 'releases.' Liquid waste that could be removed by pumping has been removed from all of the SSTs to reduce the potential for future leaks. The most significant historical leak event in 241-A Tank Farm occurred in 1965 when tank A-105 experienced a pressurized steam event. This event resulted in damage to the inner steel liner flooring of A-105, which was separated from the sidewalls over part of its circumference and buckled up to 2.5 m, vertically. During this event up to 7,570 L of contaminated liquid may have leaked to the adjacent soil. This leak occurred under extreme temperature and pressure conditions. Modeling efforts to better understand the nature and extent of historical leaks from subsurface SSTs that were used to store highly radioactive, self-boiling liquid wastes at 241-A Tank Farm have recently been undertaken. These efforts have compiled the available historical information to support a preliminary non-isothermal, multiphase flow and chemical transport modeling effort to re-create the conditions under which the leaks occurred and to formulate a conceptual model as to the extent and distribution of leaked radioactive contaminants in the adjacent soil material. The focus of this work was on developing an understanding of the key features, processes and bounding conditions related to tank A-105 leak events that occurred in the 1960's. The activities include estimation of leak composition, non-isothermal multiphase flow and transport modeling, and geochemical modeling. The STOMP{sup C} Water-Air-Energy modeling code was utilized to implement the three-dimensional representation of the subsurface tank and the surrounding flow field. Once constructed, the model was used to evaluate the conceptual understanding of leaks originating from different parts of the tank under the elevated temperature boundary conditions that were imposed by surrounding tanks at the time of the historical leaks. The chemical evolution of the liquid waste was also evaluated as it leaked from the tank under transient pressure and temperature gradients. The results of the preliminary evaluation suggested the presence of a heat-pipe effect beneath tank A-105 in which water vapor at an elevated temperature is driven away from the base of the tank to a position where water vapor cools, condenses and is then drawn back toward the tank by the strong capillary attraction of the dry soil. A non-sorbing contaminant (Tc-99) was introduced into this flow field to better understand the potential distribution patterns of leaked contaminants that may have occurred during the historical leak events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Reweighting Underlying Event and Colour Reconnection parameter variations in Sherpa

We propose and validate a new method to trace the impact of parameter variations in the simulation of multi-parton interactions and colour reconnections in the Sherpa event generator. They are reflected, at an event-by-event basis, through relative weights with respect to the central production parameters that give rise to the generated events and distributions. Our method facilitates the tuning of the Monte Carlo event generator at a dramatically reduced computational cost, alleviates parameter sensitivity studies, and enables robust quantification of parametric uncertainties on-the-fly, one of the missing ingredients for future simulations of high-energy particle collisions. The method can easily be adapted to and implemented in other event generators. To illustrate its potential, we here consider combined tunes of the multi-parton-interaction and colour-reconnection models in Sherpa using LHC proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}=7\,\text{TeV}$. We furthermore calibrate the energy-scaling behaviour of dimensionful model parameters based on $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text{TeV}$ LHC data and Tevatron data taken at $\sqrt{s}=1.96\,\text{TeV}$.

Pabst, Moritz [Gottingen U.]↗

Real-Time Detection and Localization of Line Trip Event Via Relative Phase Angles

Line trip events widely exist in power systems. They can result in power outages and a huge economic loss if not promptly detected and localized. To provide a fast and precise solution, this paper presents a Complete Coverage of Voltage Measurement (CCVM)-based line trip event detection algorithm and a Relative Phase Angle (RPA)-based line trip event localization algorithm. First, frequency and relative phase angle features during a line trip event are calculated. Then, the CCVM-based algorithm is proposed from both frequency and rate of change of frequency estimation algorithm aspects. Additionally, the RPA-based algorithm is presented, and two cases are studied to demonstrate the uniqueness of the proposed algorithm. Various experiments are conducted, where the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed CCVM-based algorithm can detect a line trip event as short as 2.07 ms. In addition, the RPA-based algorithm has 1.26 times higher localization accuracy compared with the frequency magnitude-based and phase angle-based algorithms. In conclusion, the experiment results on the examples from two interconnected power systems in the U.S. verified the performance of the proposed algorithms in wide-area power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Robust Event Diagnostics Platform: Integrating Tensor Analytics and Machine Learning into Real-time Grid Monitoring

The objective of this project is to develop a robust event diagnostics (RED) platform by integrating state-of-the-art tensor analytics and machine learning into real-time grid monitoring. The proposed platform can effectively analyze and discover the information hiding within the provided PMU data for effective real-time grid monitoring. The proposed RED platform provides a set of robust diagnostics tools for grid operation and management, including 1) data quality assessment, 2) data completion, 3) event detection, and 4) robust event classification. All the functionalities of the RED platform can help the operator to make informed decisions and respond in a timely manner. The developed RED platform will serve as an innovative advisory tool to reliably identify key events and discover new insights about the events and grid characteristics in the PMU data, and contribute to the efficient, safe, reliable operation and design of the nation’s electric system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantile regression-enriched event modeling framework for dropout analysis in high-temperature superconductor manufacturing

High-temperature superconductor (HTS) tapes have shown promising characteristics of high critical current, which are prerequisites for applications in high-field magnets. Due to the unstable growth conditions in the HTS manufacturing process, however, the frequent occurrences of dropouts in the critical current impede the consistent performance of HTS tapes. To manufacture HTS tapes with large scale, high yield, and uniform performance, it is essential to develop novel data analysis approaches for modeling the dropouts and identifying the related important process parameters. Conventional methods for modeling recurrent events, such as the point process, require the extraction of events from quality measurements. As the critical current is a continuous process, it may not comprehensively represent the drop patterns by transforming the time-series measurements into a set of events. Here, to solve this issue, we develop a novel quantile regression-enriched event modeling (QREM) framework that integrates the non-homogeneous Poisson process for modeling the occurrence of dropouts and the quantile regression for capturing the drop patterns. By incorporating the feature selection and regularization, the proposed framework identifies a set of significant process parameters that can potentially cause the dropouts of HTS tapes. The proposed method is tested on real HTS tapes produced using an advanced manufacturing process, successfully identifying important parameters that influence dropout events including the substrate temperature and voltage. The results demonstrate that the proposed QREM method outperforms the standard point process in predicting the occurrence of dropouts.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Black Swan Event Small-Sample Transfer Learning (BEST-L) and its Case Study on Electrical Power Prediction in COVID-19

The black swan event will usually cause a great impact on the normal operation of society. The scarcity of such events leads to a lack of relevant data and challenges in dealing with related problems. Different situations also make the traditional methods invalid. In this paper, a transfer learning framework and a convolutional neuron network are proposed to deal with the black swan small-sample events (BEST-L). Taking the COVID-19 as a typical black swan event, the BEST-L is utilized to achieve accurate mid-term load forecasting using the relationship between economy and electricity consumption. The experiment results show that the transfer learning model can effectively learn the basic knowledge about the relationship between the adopted input and output data and use a relatively small amount of data during the black swan event to improve the target areas' generalization. The approach and results can provide an effective approach to respond and react to sudden changes quickly and effectively in similar open problems.

black swan event↗