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At least 217 records · Page 12

Southern Idaho Health & Air Quality: Monitoring Atmospheric Mixing Heights Post-Wildfire Through the Use of NASA Earth Observations

Wildfire smoke has long-lasting impacts on public and environmental health. Currently, agencies that monitor smoke base their decisions on an analysis of how fires burn, the direction the smoke moves from the fire source, and unverified estimates of mixing height. Mixing heights describe the maximum altitude to which a smoke plume rises. Satellite imagery provides more continuous and accurate coverage of mixing heights than current in situ methods. Thus, the team developed a software tool that processes and extracts mixing height observations from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) Vertical Feature Mask granules. The team partnered with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, the Bureau of Land Management’s National Interagency Fire Center, and the National Park Service’s Fire Management Program Center to analyze historic fire events in southern Idaho. To do so, they used Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), and Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to verify where a CALIPSO pass intersects thermal anomalies and smoke plumes. The software extracts features of relevance from the hdf file of each CALIPSO transect to locate layers of continuous aerosols. The maximum altitude at which the aerosol ends is recorded as the mixing height, along with a matching latitude and longitude. The satellite-derived values can be used to validate past mixing height predictions and evaluate the accuracy and systematic bias of different estimation methods. These results may allow agencies to make better comparisons and subsequent smoke pollution management, prevention, and public health decisions if the spatial and temporal differences between predictions and observations can be resolved.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

(abstract) The Impactor Flux in the Pluto-Charon System

The impactor flux on Pluto and Charon consists of long-period comets from the Oort cloud passing through the region, and intermediate-period comets evolving inward to (or outward from) short-period orbits. The source of the intermediate-period comets is likely an extended disk of remnant planetesimals beyond the orbit of Neptune, commonly referred to as the Kuiper belt, though the Oort cloud may be an additional source of some short-period comets. The Pluto-Charon system actually circulates within the Kuiper belt, and with an aphelion of 49.3 AU, moves through a region where remnant planetesimal orbits would likely be stable over the age of the solar system. The recent discovery of two objects at Kuiper belt distances, 1992 QB 1 and 1993 FW, and the fact that the orbit determined for 1992 QB 1 is likely of low eccentricity and low inclination, have provided strong observational evidence for the Kuiper belt. Weisman et al (1989) showed that, for the expected number of objects in the Kuiper belt necessary to provide the short-period comet flux, cometary cratering on Pluto and Charon is dominated by Kuiper belt comets. We will provide updated estimates of the numbers, based on an improved understanding of Oort cloud and Kuiper belt dynamics since 1989, and on improved estimates for the radii and masses for Pluto and Charon. Because Pluto and Charon actually penetrate the stable region of the Kuiper belt beyond 40 AU, expected cratering rates for the pair are substantially higher than for Triton, which is located at the inner edge of the Kuiper belt. However, the Pluto-Charon system is tidally evolved and this may have led to resurfacing events at various times in its history. Thus, detailed predictions of the integrated crater density or comparisons with Triton are not very meaningful without a knowledge of that history. Differences in the suspected compositions of Pluto and Charon may also lead to different surface rheologies and thus, different retention times for cratered surfaces.

Pluto↗

Invariant-mass spectroscopy in projectile fragmentation reactions

The fragmentation of a projectile into a number of pieces can lead to the creation of many resonances in different nuclei. We discuss application of the invariant-mass method to the products from such reactions to find some of the most exotic resonances located furthest beyond the proton drip line. We show examples from fragmentation of a fast 13 O beam including the production of the newly identified 9 N resonance. In extracting resonance parameters from invariant-mass spectra, accurate estimates of the background from nonresonant prompt protons are needed. These prompt protons are correlated with the resonances due to long-range Coulomb interactions and will suppress events when resonance decay products and the prompt protons have small invariant masses. The shape of this background is especially important in determining the widths of wide resonances typically found at the edge of the chart of nuclides. An event-mixing recipe is proposed to describe this background, where the mixed events have reduced weighting for the smaller invariant masses to account for the effect of the Coulomb final-state interactions. The weighting is based on the measured correlations of heavier hydrogen isotopes with the resonances or the projectile residues. We also show that the relative magnitude of the background can be reduced in some cases by selecting events where the resonance decay products are accompanied by a deuteron or triton cluster. Here, the deuteron and triton clusters are largely not products of resonant decay and thus events with an accompanying cluster are associated with fewer background protons than events without them. The width of the 5/2¯ state in 9 C with the new background prescription was found to be consistent with the value obtained using proton elastic scattering on 8 B. Improved values for the widths of 10 C, 10,11 N, and 12 O resonances were also obtained using the new background prescription.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

Nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency in buildings: A case study of a nursing home

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. In this work, we conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Detection and Measurement of Micrometeoroids with LISA Pathfinder

The Solar System contains a population of dust and small particles originating from asteroids, comets, and other bodies. These particles have been studied using a number of techniques ranging from in-situ satellite detectors to analysis of lunar microcraters to ground-based observations of zodiacal light. In this paper, we describe an approach for using the LISA Pathfinder (LPF) mission as an instrument to detect and characterize the dynamics of dust particles in the vicinity of Earth-Sun L1. Launched on Dec. 3rd, 2015, LPF is a dedicated technology demonstrator mission that will validate several key technologies for a future space-based gravitational-wave observatory. The primary science instrument aboard LPF is a precision accelerometer which we show will be capable of sensing discrete momentum impulses as small as 4 x 10(exp -8) N s.We then estimate the rate of such impulses resulting from impacts of micrometeoroids based on standard models of the micrometeoroid environment in the inner solar system. We find that LPF may detect dozens to hundreds of individual events corresponding to impacts of particles with masses greater than 10(exp -9) g during LPF's roughly six-month science operations phase in a 5 x 10(exp 5) km by 8 x 10(exp 5) km Lissajous orbit around L1. In addition, we estimate the ability of LPF to characterize individual impacts by measuring quantities such as total momentum transferred, direction of impact, and location of impact on the spacecraft. Information on flux and direction provided by LPF may provide insight as to the nature and origin of the individual impact and help constrain models of the interplanetary dust complex in general. Additionally, this direct in situ measurement of micrometeoroid impacts will be valuable to designers of future spacecraft targeting the environment around L1.

meteoroids – instrumentation: miscellaneous↗

Cloud and Sun-Glint Statistics Derived from GOES and MODIS Observations Over the Intra-Americas Sea for GEO-CAPE Mission Planning

Knowledge of cloud cover, frequency, and duration is not only important to study cloud dynamics, but also critical in determining when and where to take ocean measurements from geostationary orbits such as the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission due to the challenges in achieving complete hemispheric coverage of coastal oceans, estuaries, and inland waters at hourly frequency. Using GOES hourly measurements at 4 km nadir resolution between 2006 and 2011, the number of cloud-free hourly observations per day (N(sub cf)) for solar zenith angle Theta(sub 0) less than 80 degrees was estimated for each 0.1 degree location of the Intra-Americas Sea. The number of Sun-glint-affected hourly observations per day [Ns(sub sg)] was also calculated based on the planned GEO-CAPE observation geometry and realistic wind speed. High-latitude and equatorial oceans showed the lowest N(sub cf) (less than 2.4) in all climatological months, and highest N(sub cf) was observed in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and Caribbean (greater than 4.5). Different regions showed differences in seasonality of cloud-free conditions and also showed differences in the hour of a day at which the satellite observations would have the maximal cloud-free and glint-free probability (Temperature maximum). Cloud cover from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1 km measurements are greater than 10 degrees higher than those from the MODIS 250 m measurements, supporting ocean color missions at subkilometer resolutions to enhance both spatial coverage and temporal frequency. These findings provide valuable information for GEO-CAPE mission planning to maximize its science value through minimizing the impacts of clouds and Sun glint.

Feng, Lian↗

Satellite-derived cyanobacteria frequency and magnitude in headwaters & near-dam reservoir surface waters of the Southern U.S.

Reservoirs are dominant features of the modern hydrologic landscape and provide vital services. However, the unique morphology of reservoirs can create suitable conditions for excessive algae growth and associated cyanobacteria blooms in shallow in-flow reservoir locations by providing warm water environments with relatively high nutrient inputs, deposition, and nutrient storage. Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) are costly water management issues and bloom recurrence is associated with economic costs and negative impacts to human, animal, and environmental health. As cyanoHAB occurrence varies substantially within different regions of a water body, understanding in-lake cyanoHAB spatial dynamics is essential to guide reservoir monitoring and mitigate potential public exposure to cyanotoxins. Cloud-based computational processing power and high temporal frequency of satellites enables advanced pixel-based spatial analysis of cyanoHAB frequency and quantitative assessment of reservoir headwater in-flows compared to near-dam surface waters of individual reservoirs. Additionally, extensive spatial coverage of satellite imagery allows for evaluation of spatial trends across many dozens of reservoir sites. Surface water cyanobacteria concentrations for sixty reservoirs in the southern U.S. were estimated using 300m resolution European Space Agency (ESA) Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) satellite sensor for a five year period (May 2016–April 2021). Of the reservoirs studied, spatial analysis of OLCI data revealed 98% had more frequent cyanoHAB occurrence above the concentration of >100,000 cells/mL in headwaters compared to near-dam surface waters (P < 0.001). Headwaters exhibited greater seasonal variability with more frequent and higher magnitude cyanoHABs occurring mid-summer to fall. Examination of reservoirs identified extremely high concentration cyanobacteria events (>1,000,000 cells/mL) occurring in 70% of headwater locations while only 30% of near-dam locations exceeded this threshold. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests of cyanoHAB magnitudes using paired-observations (dates with observations in both a reservoir's headwater and near-dam locations) confirmed significantly higher concentrations in headwater versus near-dam locations (p < 0.001).

cyanobacteria↗

Observations and Interpretations of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Event

We discuss recently reported observations of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms (ENAs) from an X9 solar flare/coronal mass ejection event on 5 December 2006, located at E79. The observations were made by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on STEREO A and B. Prior to the arrival of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV energetic neutral hydrogen atoms produced by either flare or shock-accelerated protons. RHESSI measurements of the 2.2-MeV gamma-ray line provide an estimate of the number of interacting flare-accelerated protons in this event, which leads to an improved estimate of ENA production by flare-accelerated protons. Taking into account ENA losses, we find that the observed ENAs must have been produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances > or equal to 2 solar radii. Although there are no CME images from this event, it is shown that CME-shock-accelerated protons can, in principle, produce a time-history consistent with the observations.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗

Satellite-derived Cyanobacteria Frequency and Magnitude in Headwaters & Near-dam Reservoir Surface Waters of the Southern U.S.

Reservoirs are dominant features of the modern hydrologic landscape and provide vital services. However, the unique morphology of reservoirs can create suitable conditions for excessive algae growth and associated cyanobacteria blooms in shallow in-flow reservoir locations by providing warm water environments with relatively high nutrient inputs, deposition, and nutrient storage. Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) are costly water management issues and bloom recurrence is associated with economic costs and negative impacts to human, animal, and environmental health. As cyanoHAB occurrence varies substantially within different regions of a water body, understanding in-lake cyanoHAB spatial dynamics is essential to guide reservoir monitoring and mitigate potential public exposure to cyanotoxins. Cloud-based computational processing power and high temporal frequency of satellites enables advanced pixel-based spatial analysis of cyanoHAB frequency and quantitative assessment of reservoir headwater in-flows compared to near-dam surface waters of individual reservoirs. Additionally, extensive spatial coverage of satellite imagery allows for evaluation of spatial trends across many dozens of reservoir sites. Surface water cyanobacteria concentrations for sixty reservoirs in the southern U.S. were estimated using 300 m resolution European Space Agency (ESA) Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) satellite sensor for a five year period (May 2016–April 2021). Of the reservoirs studied, spatial analysis of OLCI data revealed 98% had more frequent cyanoHAB occurrence above the concentration of >100,000 cells/mL in headwaters compared to near-dam surface waters (P < 0.001). Headwaters exhibited greater seasonal variability with more frequent and higher magnitude cyanoHABs occurring mid-summer to fall. Examination of reservoirs identified extremely high concentration cyanobacteria events (>1,000,000 cells/mL) occurring in 70% of headwater locations while only 30% of near-dam locations exceeded this threshold. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests of cyanoHAB magnitudes using paired-observations (dates with observations in both a reservoir's headwater and near-dam locations) confirmed significantly higher concentrations in headwater versus near-dam locations (p < 0.001).

Amber R Ignatius↗

Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Alaskan River Ice

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) transport vast amounts of moisture from low to high latitude regions. One region particularly impacted by ARs is Interior Alaska (AK). We analyze the impact of ARs on the annual river ice breakup date for 26 locations in AK. We investigate the AR-driven rise in local air temperatures and explore the relationship between ARs and precipitation, including extremes and interannual variability. We found that AR events lead to an increase in local air temperatures for over 1 week (by ≈ 1 °C). ARs account for 40% of total precipitation, explain 47% of precipitation variability, and make up 59% of extreme precipitation events, each year. By estimating the heat transfer between winter precipitation and the river ice surface, we conclude that increased precipitation during the coldest period of the year delays river ice breakup dates, while precipitation occurring close to the breakup date has little impact on breakup timing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiple Spacecraft Study of the Impact of Turbulence on Reconnection Rates

Magnetic turbulence and secondary island formation have reemerged as possible explanations for fast reconnection. Recent three-dimensional simulations reveal the formation of secondary islands that serve to shorten the current sheet and increase the accelerating electric field, while both simulations and observations witness electron holes whose collapse energizes electrons. However, few data studies have explicitly investigated the effect of turbulence and islands on the reconnection rate. We present a more comprehensive analysis of the effect of turbulence and islands on reconnection rates observed in space. Our approach takes advantage of multiple spacecraft to find the location of the spacecraft relative to the inflow and the outflow, to estimate the reconnection electric field, to indicate the presence and size of islands, and to determine wave vectors indicating turbulence. A superposed epoch analysis provides independent estimates of spatial scales and a reconnection electric field. We apply k-filtering and a new method adopted from seismological analyses to identify the wavevectors. From several case studies of reconnection events, we obtain preliminary estimates of the spectral scaling law, identify wave modes, and present a method for finding the reconnection electric field associated with the wave modes.

Wendel, Deirdre↗

Ogle-2012-blg-0724lb: A Saturn Mass Planet Around an M-dwarf

We report the discovery of a planet by the microlensing method, OGLE-2012-BLG-0724Lb. Although the duration of the planetary signal for this event was one of the shortest seen for a planetary event, the anomaly was well covered thanks to high-cadence observations taken by the survey groups OGLE and MOA. By analyzing the light curve, this planetary system is found to have a mass ratio q = (1.58 +/- 0.15) x 10(exp -3). By conducting a Bayesian analysis, we estimate that the host star is an M dwarf with a mass of M(sub L) = 0.29(+0.33/-0.16) solar mass located at D(sub L) = 6.7(+1.1/-1.2) kpc away from the Earth and the companion's mass is m(sub P) = 0.47(+0.54/-0.26) M(Jup). The projected planet- host separation is a falsum = 1.6(+0.4/-0.3) AU. Because the lens-source relative proper motion is relatively high, future highresolution images would detect the lens host star and determine the lens properties uniquely. This system is likely a Saturn-mass exoplanet around an M dwarf, and such systems are commonly detected by gravitational microlensing. This adds another example of a possible pileup of sub-Jupiters (0.2 less than m(sub P)/M(sub Jup) less than 1) in contrast to a lack of Jupiters (approximately 1-2 M(sub Jup)) around M dwarfs, supporting the prediction by core accretion models that Jupiter-mass or more massive planets are unlikely to form around M dwarfs.

microlensing↗

Morphology and Distribution of Volcanic Vents in the Orientale Basin from Chandrayaan-1 Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) Data

One of the most fundamental questions in the geological and thermal evolution of the Moon is the nature and history of mantle melting and its relationship to the formation and evolution of lunar multi-ringed basins. Mare volcanic deposits provide evidence for the nature, magnitude and composition of mantle melting as a function of space and time [1]. Many argue that mantle partial melts are derived from depths well below the influence of multiringed basin impact events [1], while others postulate that the formation of these basins can cause mantle perturbations that are more directly linked to the generation ascent and eruption of mare basalts [2,3]. In any case, longer-term basin evolution will considerably influence the state and orientation of stress in the lithosphere, and the location of mare volcanic vents in basins as a function of time [4]. Thus, the location, nature and ages of volcanic vents and deposits in relation to multi-ringed impact basins provides evidence for the role that these basins played in the generation of volcanism or in the influence of the basins on surface volcanic eruption and deposit concentration. Unfortunately, most lunar multi-ringed impact basins have been eroded by impacts or filled with lunar mare deposits [5-8], with estimates of the thickness of mare fill extending up to more than six km in the central part of some basins [9-11]. The interior of most basins (e.g., Crisium, Serenitatis, Imbrium, Humorum) are almost completely covered and obscured. Although much is known about the lava filling of multi-ringed basins, and particularly the most recent deposits [5-8], little is known about initial stages of mare volcanism and its relationship to the impact event. One multi-ringed basin, Orientale, offers substantial clues to the relationships of basin interiors and mare basalt volcanism.

Head, James↗

Sea spray aerosol production flux retrieval based on Doppler lidar measurements

Supermicron sea spray aerosols (SSA) play a crucial role in stratocumulus cloud microphysics and drizzle formation. However, our understanding of SSA's spatiotemporal distribution, production mechanisms, and fluxes in the marine boundary layer remains limited. This study introduces a novel approach to determine supermicron SSA production flux and number concentration at various heights above the ocean surface. Our method leverages Doppler lidar data, specifically attenuated backscatter and vertical velocity, collected at a 105 m range gate during the Eastern Pacific Clouds and Aerosols for Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) at Scripps Pier, La Jolla, California. To focus on nascent SSA, we analyzed data from periods with wind directions between 225° and 315° and wind speeds exceeding 4 m s −1 . Cloud and precipitation events were excluded using relative humidity, backscatter thresholds, and 2D Video Disdrometer observations. Results show that calculated supermicron SSA number concentrations at 105 m ranged from 0.26 to 2.93 cm −3 for surface wind speeds between 4 and 6 ms −1 . When exceeding the method's Limit of Detection, estimated production fluxes ranged from 0.20 to 1.53 cm −2 s −1 . This methodology has potential for application in various oceanic locations, likely enhancing our understanding of SSA's role in atmospheric processes and climate interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Long-term Transport and Radiative Impacts of the 2017 British Columbia Pyrocumulonimbus Smoke Aerosols in the Stratosphere

Interactions of meteorology with wildfires in British Columbia, Canada during August 2017 led to three major pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events that resulted in the injection of large amounts of smoke aerosols and other combustion products at the local upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). These plumes of UTLS smoke with elevated values of aerosol extinction and backscatter compared to the background state were readily tracked by multiple satellite-based instruments as they spread across the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The plumes were observed in the lower stratosphere for about 8-10 months following the fire injections, with a stratospheric aerosol e-folding time of about 5 months. To investigate the radiative impacts of these events on the Earth system, we performed a number of simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Observations from multiple remote-sensing instruments were used to calibrate the injection parameters (location, amount, composition and heights) and optical properties of the smoke aerosols in the model. The resulting simulations of three-dimensional smoke transport were evaluated for a year from the day of injections using daily observations from OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler). The model simulated rate of ascent, hemispheric spread and residence time (or e-folding time) of the smoke aerosols in the stratosphere are in close agreement with OMPS-LP observations. We found that both aerosol self-lofting and the large-scale atmospheric motion play important roles in lifting the smoke plumes from near the tropopause altitudes (~12 km) to about 22-23 km into the atmosphere. Further, our estimations of the radiative impacts of the pyroCb-emitted smoke aerosols showed that the smoke caused an additional warming of the atmosphere by about 0.6-1 W/m2 (zonal mean) that persisted for about 2-3 months after the injections in regions north of 40oN. The surface experienced a comparable magnitude of cooling. The atmospheric warming is mainly located in the stratosphere, coincident with the location of the smoke plumes, leading to an increase in zonal mean shortwave (SW) heating rates of 0.02-0.04 K/day during September 2017.

pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events↗

Validating MODIS Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieved from Color Ratio Algorithm Using Direct Measurements Made by NASA's Airborne AATS and 4STAR Sensors

We present the validation analysis of above-cloud aerosol optical depth (ACAOD) retrieved from the color ratio method applied to MODIS cloudy-sky reflectance measurements using the limited direct measurements made by NASAs airborne Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS) and Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) sensors. A thorough search of the airborne database collection revealed a total of five significant events in which an airborne sun photometer, coincident with the MODIS overpass, observed partially absorbing aerosols emitted from agricultural biomass burning, dust, and wildfires over a low-level cloud deck during SAFARI-2000, ACE-ASIA 2001, and SEAC4RS 2013 campaigns, respectively. The co-located satellite-airborne match ups revealed a good agreement (root-mean-square difference less than 0.1), with most match ups falling within the estimated uncertainties associated with the MODIS retrievals (about -10 to +50 ). The co-retrieved cloud optical depth was comparable to that of the MODIS operational cloud product for ACE-ASIA and SEAC4RS, however, higher by 30-50% for the SAFARI-2000 case study. The reason for this discrepancy could be attributed to the distinct aerosol optical properties encountered during respective campaigns. A brief discussion on the sources of uncertainty in the satellite-based ACAOD retrieval and co-location procedure is presented. Field experiments dedicated to making direct measurements of aerosols above cloud are needed for the extensive validation of satellite based retrievals.

airborne sun photometer↗

Leveraging Hydropower Multi-Sensor Data for Inference and Age-Informed Modeling

Increased demand of operational flexibility such as faster ramp up/down in generation, and more frequent start/stops are putting hydropower plants and their associated components in unprecedented stress. Consequently, these plants are at the high risk of extended and more frequent outage to accommodate unscheduled, and unexpected maintenance. Therefore, hydropower plants are in critical need of data driven and age-informed analysis for their regular and unscheduled operation. Yet not all hydropower plants are exhaustively equipped with sensors and/or measurement streams for their respective components – demanding solutions on how to detect, identify, and locate the cause of any event from the unobservable. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) analyzed the anonymized measurements and event records from the Hydropower Research Institute (HRI) to address this issue, as part of the Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) funded one year multi-lab project. First, we investigated how time series of multiple sensor measurements can be leveraged to identify an event “root cause” as well as to develop an inference (i.e., estimate the unobservable) problem. INL also investigated how individual hydropower components’ reaction or response times vary across the pre-event, during event, and post-event conditions – enabling the hydropower dynamic models to be age-informed. Finally, the impact of clustering multi-sensor time series on short-term vibration prediction is analyzed. INL will present key findings from these analyses and recommend next steps for stakeholder adoption.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗