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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Simulation-Based Planning for Electric Airport Shuttle Systems: A Real-World Case Study

Many airports are adopting battery electric buses in their shuttle fleets due to concerns over air quality and regulations. This study proposes a simulation-based optimization modeling framework to help airport shuttle operators effectively deploy electric buses. We evaluated a planned airport electric shuttle system with an event-driven simulator. Empirical data collected from existing systems were used to drive the simulations. We then proposed a simulation-based optimization model to determine the battery capacity, charging power, and number of chargers so that predefined objective(s) (e.g., minimizing total capital cost, minimizing emissions) are optimized. Compared to existing studies, the primary contribution of the proposed method is that it can model the real-world stochastic nature of operations in an electric bus system with much higher fidelity. To demonstrate the proposed modeling framework, we study a real-world shuttle system at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, and present extensive numerical studies. When considering partial fleet electrification, the model can provide a set of Pareto optimal solutions. When considering full fleet electrification, the optimal solution requires a 50-kWh battery capacity and four 210-kW chargers, resulting in a total capital cost of $26,744,000. The results demonstrate that the proposed modeling framework can effectively optimize the planning of electric airport shuttle systems with partial or full fleet electrification.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automation is all you need: Faster Earth system models with AI/ML

Focal Area: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced methods. Science Challenge: Tropical cyclones can in- duce extreme water cycle events through dramatic precipitation and storm surge. More reliable models of intensity will translate into better prediction of the impact of extreme events in large scale Earth systems simulations. We demonstrate and describe AI/ML methodologies for rapid assimilation of new, in situ data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗
DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic graphical model foundation for enabling predictive digital twins at scale

A unifying mathematical formulation is needed to move from one-off digital twins built through custom implementations to robust digital twin implementations at scale. This work proposes a probabilistic graphical model as a formal mathematical representation of a digital twin and its associated physical asset. We create an abstraction of the asset–twin system as a set of coupled dynamical systems, evolving over time through their respective state spaces and interacting via observed data and control inputs. The formal definition of this coupled system as a probabilistic graphical model enables us to draw upon well-established theory and methods from Bayesian statistics, dynamical systems and control theory. The declarative and general nature of the proposed digital twin model make it rigorous yet flexible, enabling its application at scale in a diverse range of application areas. Here, we demonstrate how the model is instantiated to enable a structural digital twin of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The digital twin is calibrated using experimental data from a physical UAV asset. Its use in dynamic decision-making is then illustrated in a synthetic example where the UAV undergoes an in-flight damage event and the digital twin is dynamically updated using sensor data. The graphical model foundation ensures that the digital twin calibration and updating process is principled, unified and able to scale to an entire fleet of digital twins.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real-Time Neuromorphic Processing of Spatiotemporal Data for Scientific Discovery

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are brain-inspired computing models incorporating unique temporal dynamics and event-driven processing. Rich dynamics in both space and time offer great challenges and opportunities for efficient processing of sparse spatiotemporal data compared with conventional artificial neural networks (ANNs). Under this context, the goal of this project is to develop spiking neural network based neuromorphic computing to enable energy-efficient real-time learning and processing of spatiotemporal data. This report summarizes the key results on network architecture design, training methods, and SNN hardware acceleration achieved under this project, demonstrating the promise of spiking neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

SEARCHING FOR MESONIC DARK MATTER WITH THE HEAVY PHOTON SEARCH EXPERIMENT

Several highly-sensitive astrophysical experiments over the past couple of decades have demonstrated that the current abundance of visible Standard Model matter cannot explain galactic rotation curves, the expansion history of the Universe, or the apparent warping of light in empty space. Instead, one finds strong agreement with this body of experimental results upon positing the existence of an invisible particulate field, dark matter. Namely, a cold, weakly interacting dark matter component can explain all these phenomena. A number of accelerator-based experiments have been developed to search for the weak couplings/interactions of these particles, many of them concentrating on particle models with masses of tens to thousands of GeV. A relatively new, well-motivated model is a dark sector coupled to the Standard Model via a dark photon. The current abundance of dark matter can be obtained if one assumes that dark matter is coupled to light by a MeV to GeV particle with a U(1) symmetry. The parameter space of these models remains largely unexplored because they are difficult to probe experimentally. In this thesis, I analyze data from the Heavy Photon Search (HPS) detector, whose two detector halves closely surround the electron beam, providing acceptance to far-forward boosted interactions. This forward acceptance to highly boosted particles yields unprecedented sensitivity to MeV-scale invariant masses. I exhaustively optimize the offline reconstruction of the HPS detector. Each reconstruction object, from Silicon Vertex Tracker hits to tracks, is studied to maximize acceptance of dark matter events. I then use the 2021 run data to search for one model of dark-photon-mediated matter, the Strongly Interacting Massive Particle (SIMP). SIMP models provide self-interacting dark matter candidates that can form bound states resembling dark mesons. HPS can detect SIMPs through the decay of a dark vector boson (either a dark ¿ or ¿) into e+e- pairs. I obtain exclusion contours for SIMPs using both an optimized cuts-based selection and a machine-learning-based selection, advancing our knowledge of the nature of dark matter.

O'Dwyer, Rory [Stanford Univ., CA (United States).↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-energy radiative backgrounds in CCD-based dark-matter detectors

The reach of sub-GeV dark-matter detectors is at present severely affected by low-energy events from various origins. We present the theoretical methods to compute the single- and few-electron events that arise from secondary radiation emitted by high-energy particles as they pass through detector materials and perform a detailed simulation to quantify them at (Skipper) CCD-based experiments, focusing on the SENSEI data collected at Fermilab near the MINOS cavern. The simulations account for the generation of secondaries from Cherenkov and luminescent recombination radiation; photo-absorption in the bulk, backside layer, pitch adapter, and epoxy; the photon reflection and refraction at interfaces; thin-film interference; the roughness of the interfaces; the dynamics of charges produced in the highly doped CCD-backside-layers; and the partial charge collection on the CCD backside. We consider several systematic uncertainties, notably those stemming from the backside modeling, which we estimate with a “fiducial” and an “extreme” charge-diffusion model, with the former model being preferred due to better agreement with partial-charge collection data. We find that Cherenkov photons constitute about 30% of the observed single-electron events for both diffusion models; radiative recombination contributes negligibly to the event rate for the fiducial model, although it can dominate over Cherenkov for the extreme model. We also estimate the fraction of 2-electron events that arise from 1-electron event coincidences in the same pixel, finding that the entire 2-electron rate can be explained by coincidences of radiative events and spurious charge. Accounting for both radiative and non-radiative backgrounds, we project the sensitivity of future Skipper-CCD-based experiments to different dark-matter models. For light-mediator models with dark-matter masses of 1, 5, and 10 MeV, we find that future experiments with 10-kg-year exposures and successful background mitigation could have a sensitivity that is larger by 9, 3, and 2 orders of magnitude, respectively, when compared to an experiment without background improvements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data Mining and Machine Learning for Power System Monitoring, Understanding, and Impact Evaluation

This chapter presents results from the Big Data analysis framework to improve power system situational awareness and system reliability. For this purpose, a dataset with real-world phasor measurement unit data and historical transmission system outage data has been created and used to carry out the analysis. Several statistical analysis and machine learning methods have been developed and implemented for event and anomaly detection and modeling. Detection and analysis results for actual examples of power system events are presented. Finally, data-driven characterization and risk assessment methods for weather-related extremes in power systems are developed and demonstrated on the Bonneville Power Administration system. These applications demonstrate the capability of Machine Learning (ML) methods to monitor system abnormalities, to predict system events, and to characterize the impact of extreme events on power grid

data mining, power grid, machine learning, anomaly↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effectiveness of denoising diffusion probabilistic models for fast and high-fidelity whole-event simulation in high-energy heavy-ion experiments

Artificial intelligence (AI) generative models, such as generative adversarial networks (GANs), variational autoencoders, and normalizing flows, have been widely used and studied as efficient alternatives for traditional scientific simulations. However, they have several drawbacks, including training instability and inability to cover the entire data distribution, especially for regions where data are rare. This is particularly challenging for whole-event, full-detector simulations in high-energy heavy-ion experiments, such as sPHENIX at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and Large Hadron Collider experiments, where thousands of particles are produced per event and interact with the detector. This work investigates the effectiveness of denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) as an AI-based generative surrogate model for the sPHENIX experiment that includes the heavy-ion event generation and response of the entire calorimeter stack. DDPM performance in sPHENIX simulation data is compared with a popular rival, GANs. Results show that both DDPMs and GANs can reproduce the data distribution where the examples are abundant (low-to-medium calorimeter energies). Nonetheless, DDPMs significantly outperform GANs, especially in high-energy regions where data are rare. Additionally, DDPMs exhibit superior stability compared to GANs. The results are consistent between both central and peripheral centrality heavy-ion collision events. Moreover, DDPMs offer a substantial speedup of approximately a factor of 100 compared to the traditional Geant4 simulation method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing set-conditional set generation: Diffusion models for fast simulation of reconstructed particles

The computational intensity of detector simulation and event reconstruction poses a significant difficulty for data analysis in collider experiments. This challenge inspires the continued development of machine learning techniques to serve as efficient surrogate models. We propose a fast emulation approach that combines simulation and reconstruction. In other words, a neural network generates a set of reconstructed objects conditioned on input particle sets. To make this possible, we advance set-conditional set generation with diffusion models. Using a realistic, generic, and public detector simulation and reconstruction package (COCOA), we show how diffusion models can accurately model the complex spectrum of reconstructed particles inside jets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring adversarial behaviour in cyber‐physical power systems using a Bayesian attack graph approach

Abstract Highly connected smart power systems are subject to increasing vulnerabilities and adversarial threats. Defenders need to proactively identify and defend new high‐risk access paths of cyber intruders that target grid resilience. However, cyber‐physical risk analysis and defense in power systems often requires making assumptions on adversary behaviour, and these assumptions can be wrong. Thus, this work examines the problem of inferring adversary behaviour in power systems to improve risk‐based defense and detection. To achieve this, a Bayesian approach for inference of the Cyber‐Adversarial Power System (Bayes‐CAPS) is proposed that uses Bayesian networks (BNs) to define and solve the inference problem of adversarial movement in the grid infrastructure towards targets of physical impact. Specifically, BNs are used to compute conditional probabilities to queries, such as the probability of observing an event given a set of alerts. Bayes‐CAPS builds initial Bayesian attack graphs for realistic power system cyber‐physical models. These models are adaptable using collected data from the system under study. Then, Bayes‐CAPS computes the posterior probabilities of the occurrence of a security breach event in power systems. Experiments are conducted that evaluate algorithms based on time complexity, accuracy and impact of evidence for different scales and densities of network. The performance is evaluated and compared for five realistic cyber‐physical power system models of increasing size and complexities ranging from 8 to 300 substations based on computation and accuracy impacts.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗
DOE OSTI2025

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Semisupervised Learning for Seismic Monitoring Applications

The impressive performance that deep neural networks demonstrate on a range of seismic monitoring tasks depends largely on the availability of event catalogs that have been manually curated over many years or decades. However, the quality, duration, and availability of seismic event catalogs vary significantly across the range of monitoring operations, regions, and objectives. Semisupervised learning (SSL) enables learning from both labeled and unlabeled data and provides a framework to leverage the abundance of unreviewed seismic data for training deep neural networks on a variety of target tasks. We apply two SSL algorithms (mean-teacher and virtual adversarial training) as well as a novel hybrid technique (exponential average adversarial training) to seismic event classification to examine how unlabeled data with SSL can enhance model performance. In general, we find that SSL can perform as well as supervised learning with fewer labels. We also observe in some scenarios that almost half of the benefits of SSL are the result of the meaningful regularization enforced through SSL techniques and may not be attributable to unlabeled data directly. Lastly, the benefits from unlabeled data scale with the difficulty of the predictive task when we evaluate the use of unlabeled data to characterize sources in new geographic regions. Finally, in geographic areas where supervised model performance is low, SSL significantly increases the accuracy of source-type classification using unlabeled data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on Neutrino Oscillation Parameters from Neutrinos and Antineutrinos with Machine Learning

NOvA is a two detector, long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment measuring the oscillations of muon neutrinos from the \numi neutrino beam over a baseline of \SI{810}{km}. The experiment uses four oscillation channels, $\numu \rightarrow \numu$, $\numubar \rightarrow \numubar$, $\numu \rightarrow \nue$, and $\numubar \rightarrow \nuebar$, with a peak neutrino energy of \SI{1.8}{GeV}. This dissertation describes the analysis of these channels using a dataset of $13.6\times10^{20}$ protons on target neutrino beam mode and $12.5\times10^{20}$ protons on target antineutrino beam mode. The analysis makes use of improvements in the treatment of systematic uncertainties and machine learning techniques to reconstruct neutrino interactions. A technique for decorrelating systematic errors using principle component analysis was utilized to reduce and optimize neutrino cross section and beam related uncertainties. The improved machine learning algorithms make use of convolutional ne ural net works for neutrino event classification, particle classification, and instance segmentation. The selection of neutrino signal events utilizing the neutrino event classifier shows an efficiency of 63\% for the selection of electron neutrinos in neutrino beam mode and 75\% for electron antineutrinos in antineutrino beam mode. Using this algorithm, 82 appearing electron neutrino candidates and 33 appearing electron antineutrino candidates were observed with expected backgrounds of 26.8 and 14.0 respectively. In addition, 211 surviving muon neutrino candidates and 105 muon antineutrino candidates were identified with a purity of more than 96\% using the same neutrino event classifier. Fitting these data to the three flavor neutrino oscillation model, using constraints on \thetaonetwo, \thetaonethree, and \dmsqonetwo from solar and reactor neutrino experiments, the oscillation parameters are measured to be $\sintwothree = 0.57^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$, $\dmsqthreetwo = \SI[parse-numbers= false]{+ 2.41\pm0.07 \times 10^{-3}}{eV^2}$, and $\dcp=0.82^{+0.27}_{-0.87}\pi$ with a preference for the normal neutrino mass hierarchy. Leading systematic uncertainties for these measurements come from detector calibration and neutrino interaction models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance Assessment for the E-Area Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility at the Savannah River Site: Chapter 3

This chapter summarizes safety functions and features, events, and processes; conceptual models which apply to all DUs; property data packages; and modeling tools developed and implemented in this PA to analyze ELLWF performance. Conceptual models of GW flow and transport in the VZ, which are specific to type of DU, are presented in Chapter 4.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling land surface processes over a mountainous rainforest in Costa Rica using CLM4.5 and CLM5

This study compares the performance of the Community Land Models (CLM4.5 and CLM5) against tower and ground measurements from a tropical montane rainforest in Costa Rica. The study site receives over 4000 mm of mean annual precipitation and has high daily levels of relative humidity. The measurement tower is equipped with eddy-covariance and vertical profile systems able to measure various micrometeorological variables, particularly in wet and complex terrain. In this work, results from point-scale simulations for both CLM4.5 and its updated version (CLM5) are compared to observed canopy flux and micrometeorological data. Both models failed to capture the effects of frequent rainfall events and mountainous topography on the variables of interest (temperatures, leaf wetness, and fluxes). Overall, CLM5 alleviates some errors in CLM4.5, but CLM5 still cannot precisely simulate a number of canopy processes for this forest. Soil, air, and canopy temperatures, as well as leaf wetness, remain too sensitive to incoming solar radiation rates despite updates to the model. As a result, daytime vapor flux and carbon flux are overestimated, and modeled temperature differences between day and night are higher than those observed. Slope effects appear in the measured average diurnal variations of surface albedo and carbon flux, but CLM5 cannot simulate these features. This study suggests that both CLMs still require further improvements concerning energy partitioning processes, such as leaf wetness process, photosynthesis model, and aerodynamic resistance model for wet and mountainous regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

High Statistics Measurements of $ν_μ$ Charged-Current Single $π^{+}$ Production with Zero Pion Kinetic Energy Threshold in MINERvA

This Letter presents measurements of single-differential cross sections of $ν_μ$-induced charged-current 1 $π^{+}$ production on scintillator using the MINERvA detector at Fermilab. These measurements use traditional track-based pion reconstruction as well as pions identified solely via Michel electron decays, allowing measurement of kinetic energies from 0 to 350 MeV. In total, 91,843 events were selected with $W_{exp}$$<$ 1.4 GeV/c. Differential cross sections as a function of pion and muon kinematic variables are presented and compared with the predictions of several neutrino event generators. Overall, modern pion production models tend to agree with data at the ends of the kinematic regions probed, but are discrepant with the main regions of the phase space probed by up to 15% in muon observables and up to 20% in pion observables. No model describes any of the variables well, and this result highlights model areas that require improvement for the next generation of neutrino oscillation experiments.

Granados, E. [Guanajuato U.]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Offshore wind energy forecasting sensitivity to sea surface temperature input in the Mid-Atlantic

Abstract. As offshore wind farm development expands, accurate wind resource forecasting over the ocean is needed. One important yet relatively unexplored aspect of offshore wind resource assessment is the role of sea surface temperature (SST). Models are generally forced with reanalysis data sets, which employ daily SST products. Compared with observations, significant variations in SSTs that occur on finer timescales are often not captured. Consequently, shorter-lived events such as sea breezes and low-level jets (among others), which are influenced by SSTs, may not be correctly represented in model results. The use of hourly SST products may improve the forecasting of these events. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) 4.2.1 to different SST products. We first evaluate three different data sets: the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR25) SST analysis, a daily, 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution product; the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA), a daily, 0.054∘ × 0.054∘ resolution product; and SSTs from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16), an hourly, 0.02∘ × 0.02∘ resolution product. GOES-16 is not processed at the same level as OSTIA and MUR25; therefore, the product requires gap-filling using an interpolation method to create a complete map with no missing data points. OSTIA and GOES-16 SSTs validate markedly better against buoy observations than MUR25, so these two products are selected for use with model simulations, while MUR25 is at this point removed from consideration. We run the model for June and July of 2020 and find that for this time period, in the Mid-Atlantic, although OSTIA SSTs overall validate better against in situ observations taken via a buoy array in the area, the two products result in comparable hub-height (140 m) wind characterization performance on monthly timescales. Additionally, during hours-long flagged events (< 30 h each) that show statistically significant wind speed deviations between the two simulations, both simulations once again demonstrate similar validation performance (differences in bias, earth mover's distance, correlation, and root mean square error on the order of 10−1 or less), with GOES-16 winds validating nominally better than OSTIA winds. With a more refined GOES-16 product, which has been not only gap-filled but also assimilated with in situ SST measurements in the region, it is likely that hub-height winds characterized by GOES-16-informed simulations would definitively validate better than those informed by OSTIA SSTs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗