Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “error propagation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

Statistical and Hydrological Evaluation of TRMM-Based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis over the Wangchu Basin of Bhutan: Are the Latest Satellite Precipitation Products 3B42V7 Ready for Use in Ungauged Basins?

The objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate the successive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products and further to explore the improvements and error propagation of the latest 3B42V7 algorithm relative to its predecessor 3B42V6 using the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrologic model in the mountainous Wangchu Basin of Bhutan. First, the comparison to a decade-long (2001-2010) daily rain gauge dataset reveals that: 1) 3B42V7 generally improves upon 3B42V6s underestimation both for the whole basin (bias from -41.15 to -8.38) and for a 0.250.25 grid cell with high-density gauges (bias from -40.25 to 0.04), though with modest enhancement of correlation coefficients (CC) (from 0.36 to 0.40 for basin-wide and from 0.37 to 0.41 for grid); and 2) 3B42V7 also improves its occurrence frequency across the rain intensity spectrum. Using the CREST model that has been calibrated with rain gauge inputs, the 3B42V6-based simulation shows limited hydrologic prediction NSCE skill (0.23 in daily scale and 0.25 in monthly scale) while 3B42V7 performs fairly well (0.66 in daily scale and 0.77 in monthly scale), a comparable skill score with the gauge rainfall simulations. After recalibrating the model with the respective TMPA data, significant improvements are observed for 3B42V6 across all categories, but not as much enhancement for the already well-performing 3B42V7 except for a reduction in bias (from -26.98 to -4.81). In summary, the latest 3B42V7 algorithm reveals a significant upgrade from 3B42V6 both in precipitation accuracy (i.e., correcting the underestimation) thus improving its potential hydrological utility. Forcing the model with 3B42V7 rainfall yields comparable skill scores with in-situ gauges even without recalibration of the hydrological model by the satellite precipitation, a compensating approach often used but not favored by the hydrology community, particularly in ungauged basins.

TRMM↗

Uncertainty Analysis for the Miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer (mini-LHR)

Presented here is a sensitivity analysis for the miniaturized laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR). This passive, ground-based instrument measures carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmospheric column and has been under development at NASA/GSFC since 2009. The goal of this development is to produce a low-cost, easily-deployable instrument that can extend current ground measurement networks in order to (1) validate column satellite observations, (2) provide coverage in regions of limited satellite observations, (3) target regions of interest such as thawing permafrost, and (4) support the continuity of a long-term climate record. In this paper an uncertainty analysis of the instrument performance is presented and compared with results from three sets of field measurements. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and corresponding uncertainty for a single scan are calculated to be 329.4+/-1.3 by deploying error propagation through the equation governing the SNR. Reported is an absorbance noise of 0.0024 for 6 averaged scans of field data, for an instrument precision of approximately 0.2 ppmv for CO2.

carbon dioxide (CO2)↗

Information Content of Bistatic Lidar Observations of Aerosols from Space

We present, for the first time, a quantitative retrieval error-propagation study for a bistatic high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) system intended for detailed quasi-global monitoring of aerosol properties from space. Our results demonstrate that supplementing a conventional monostatic HSRL with an additional receiver flown in formation at a scattering angle close to 165 degrees dramatically increases the information content of the measurements and allows for a sufficiently accurate characterization of tropospheric aerosols. We conclude that a bistatic HSRL system would far exceed the capabilities of currently flown or planned orbital instruments in monitoring global aerosol effects on the environment and on the Earth's climate. We also demonstrate how the commonly used a priori 'regularization' methodology can artificially reduce the propagated uncertainties and can thereby be misleading as to the real retrieval capabilities of a measurement system.

lidar↗

The New Sun-Sky-Lunar Cimel CE318-T Multiband Photometer - A Comprehensive Performance Evaluation

This paper presents the new photometer CE318-T, able to perform daytime and night-time photometric measurements using the sun and the moon as light source. Therefore,this new device permits a complete cycle of diurnal aerosol and water vapour measurements valuable to enhance atmospheric monitoring to be extracted. In this study wehave found significantly higher precision of triplets when comparing the CE318-T master instrument and the Cimel AErosol RObotic NET work (AERONET) master (CE318-AERONET) triplets as a result of the new CE318-T tracking system. Regarding the instrument calibration, two new methodologies to transfer the calibration from a reference instrument using only daytime measurements (Sun Ratio and Sun-Moon gain factor techniques) are presented and discussed. These methods allow the reduction of the previous complexities inherent to nocturnal calibration. A quantitative estimation of CE318-T AOD uncertainty by means of error propagation theory during daytime revealed AOD uncertainties (u(sup D)(sub AOD)) for Langley-calibrated instruments similar to the expected values for other reference instruments (0.002-0.009). We have also found u(sup D)(sub AOD) values similar to the values reported in sun photometry for field instruments (approximately 0.015). In the case of the night-time period, the CE318-T-estimated standard combined uncertainty (u(sup N)(sub AOD)) is dependent not only on the calibration technique but also on illumination conditions and the instrumental noise. These values range from 0.011-0.018 for Lunar Langley-calibrated instruments to 0.012-0.021 for instruments calibrated using the Sun Ratio technique. In the case of moon-calibrated instruments using the Sun-Moon gain factor method and sun calibrated using the Langley technique, we found u(sup N)(sub AOD) ranging from 0.016 to 0.017 (up to 0.019 in 440 nm channel), not dependent on any lunar irradiance model. A subsequent performance evaluation including CE318-T and collocated measurements from independent reference instruments has served to assess the CE318-T performance as well as to confirm its estimated uncertainty. Daytime AOD evaluation, performed at Izana station from March to June 2014, encompassed measurements from a reference CE318-T, a CE318-AERONET master instrument, a Precision Filter Radiometer (PFR) and a Precision Spectroradiometer (PSR) prototype, reporting low AOD discrepancies between the four instruments (up to 0.006). The nocturnal AOD evaluation was performed using CE318-T- and starphotometer-collocated measurements and also by means of a day/night coherence transition test using the CE318-T master instrument and the CE318 daytime data from the CE318-AERONET master instrument. Results showed low discrepancies with the star photometer at 870 and 500 nm channels(less tna or equal to 0.013) and differences with AERONET daytime data (1 h after and before sunset and sunrise) in agreement with the estimated u(sup N)(sub AOD) values at all illumination conditions in the case of channels within the visible spectral range, and only for high moon's illumination conditions in the case of near infrared channels. Perceptible water vapour (PWV) validation showed a good agreement between CE318-T and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) PWV values for all illumination conditions, within the expected precision for sun photometry. Finally, two case studies have been included to highlight the ability of the new CE318-T to capture the diurnal cycle of aerosols and water vapour as well as short-term atmospheric variations, critical for climate studies.

Barreto, Africa↗

Application of High-Dimensional Fuzzy K-Means Cluster Analysis to CALIOP/CALIPSO Version 4.1 Cloud-Aerosol Discrimination

This study applies fuzzy k-means (FKM) cluster analyses to a subset of the parameters reported in the CALIPSO lidar level 2 data products in order to classify the layers detected as either clouds or aerosols. The results obtained are used to assess the reliability of the cloud–aerosol discrimination (CAD) scores reported in the version 4.1 release of the CALIPSO data products. FKM is an unsupervised learning algorithm, whereas the CALIPSO operational CAD algorithm (COCA) takes a highly supervised approach. Despite these substantial computational and architectural differences, our statistical analyses show that the FKM classifications agree with the COCA classifications for more than 94 % of the cases in the troposphere. This high degree of similarity is achieved because the lidar-measured signatures of the majority of the clouds and the aerosols are naturally distinct, and hence objective methods can independently and effectively separate the two classes in most cases. Classification differences most often occur in complex scenes (e.g., evaporating water cloud filaments embedded in dense aerosol) or when observing diffuse features that occur only intermittently (e.g., volcanic ash in the tropical tropopause layer). The two methods examined in this study establish overall classification correctness boundaries due to their differing algorithm uncertainties. In addition to comparing the outputs from the two algorithms, analysis of sampling, data training, performance measurements, fuzzy linear discriminants, defuzzification, error propagation, and key parameters in feature type discrimination with the FKM method are further discussed in order to better understand the utility and limits of the application of clustering algorithms to space lidar measurements. In general, we find that both FKM and COCA classification uncertainties are only minimally affected by noise in the CALIPSO measurements, though both algorithms can be challenged by especially complex scenes containing mixtures of discrete layer types. Our analysis results show that attenuated backscatter and color ratio are the driving factors that separate water clouds from aerosols; backscatter intensity, depolarization, and mid-layer altitude are most useful in discriminating between aerosols and ice clouds; and the joint distribution of backscatter intensity and depolarization ratio is critically important for distinguishing ice clouds from water clouds.

Zeng, Shan↗

Inversion of Magnetic Measurements of the Swarm A Satellite of the Bangui Magnetic Anomaly

We wanted to make a satellite altitude magnetic anomaly map of the large magnetic anomaly in the Central African Republic, the Bangui magnetic anomaly, with data from the Swarm satellites. In the first part of our study, we summarize the earlier investigations and their interpretation. In the second we discuss our data processing applied to produce a magnetic anomaly map. We used the IGRF 12th to remove the long-wavelength regional anomalies. We will use an inverse procedure, which always requires a solution of the direct problem, and a horizontal polygonal prism given in the Descartes coordinate system. For this, reason the total magnetic anomaly was transformed into the Descartes coordinate system. The magnetization and its direction were used from our previous paper. The inverse problem is solved by the Simplex procedure. Our selected polygon has 14 geometrical parameters however, the inverse problem that is the numerical determination of the minimum problem is solved in the 14 dimensions. The result of our inverse problem was the 12 horizontal coordinates and the two upper and lower data of the polygon. The origin of the Bangui anomaly has been discussed in several scientific reports, either as a deep crustal tectonic feature or the result of a large external impactor. However, according to our inversion computations we cannot make any unambiguous finding for the origin of this feature. The inaccuracy in our total anomaly map is given by the Gaussian error propagation.

KI Kis↗

An Updated Model for the Effect of Atmospheric Absorption on Sounding Rockets

A very high-resolution R > 20,000 Far Ultraviolet full-disk, solar spectrograph will be launched in the Spring of 2023. This paper describes the in-flight wavelength calibration techniques and the fortuitous retrieval of Earth’s thermospheric information during the flight. Building and calibration of the Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket Spectrograph (FURST) is currently underway. The purpose of this instrument is to obtain the highest resolution and most complete Far Ultra-Violet (FUV) spectra of the full disk Sun. This so-called "Sun-as-a-star" spectra will allow direct comparisons between our Sun and other stars measured by the Hubble Space Telescope(HST) and the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). The Solar Physics groups at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Montana State University (MSU) have been developing the tools and procedures necessary to achieve the high spectral resolution goal. These include, among other things, improved tracking of error propagation, in-situ monitoring of the camera gain with a radioactive Fe-55 source, and the development of a simulated spectral calibration map under a noisy diagnostic-lamp signal. This mapping introduces a clocked CCD in order to obtain sub-pixel spectral resolution and overcome the Nyquist limit by about a factor of 2. Aside from the main purpose of FURST, we have been investigating the effect of absorption in the upper atmosphere at sounding-rocket altitudes (about 100-300 km). We present here an improved model of the optical depth caused by the thermospheric Oxygen cross-section and H and O self-absorption. This data-based model uses concentric spherical shells to account for the curvature of the Earth’s atmosphere and refraction. Using these calculations, we present the anticipated effect on the signal received by FURST, how that signal changes over the course of the flight-path These absorption peaks would provide wavelength fiducials at line-center that might add to in-flight calibration of the instrument. Many studies have found ways to correct for these so-called "Telluric" lines. However, it may be that these lines can in fact be a useful tool to further improve our calibration, rather than simply a nuisance to be corrected for! Finally, we discuss the inversion problem: how we could take actual flight data and back-out the atmospheric data (such as density and temperature) from any such sounding rocket flight that shows evidence of atmospheric absorption.

Nicolas Donders↗

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗

Gamma-Ray Imaging to Monitor Accumulating Holdup

Over time, nuclear materials can accumulate in process equipment and keeping track of such material is of interest to many stakeholder communities including safeguards, process monitoring, criticality safety, and radiological safety. Passive gamma-ray imaging provides a visual and quantitative tool that can be applied to this problem, allowing one to determine the amount of material present from the images. In this work we emulate the accumulation of highly enriched uranium (HEU) in a large rectangular stainless-steel duct by stacking 5, 27 × 50 cm2 cards, each of which has approximately 11 g of 235U in oxide form distributed across its surface, behind each other. A series of images were collected using a coded-aperture gamma-ray imager, starting with a single card, adding a second card, etc. Long integrations were collected to allow evaluating the performance of the approach as a function of integration time. The images are analyzed using first principles to determine the amount of material in each image. The results are compared to the known amount of material in each configuration, and as a function of time. The analysis includes a first-principles error propagation and to further evaluate the uncertainty, a boot-strap sampling approach is also applied to the data. The work offers a proof of concept for unattended monitoring of uranium holdup with a quantitative gamma-ray imaging technique.

Ziock, Klaus-Peter↗

Godiva-IV Dosimetry Exercise 2022 Preliminary Results

Integral Experiment Request (IER) 538 is part of a series of dose characterization and nuclear accident dosimetry (NAD) exercises performed under the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP). This is the second NAD exercise using the Godiva-IV critical assembly and the third NAD exercise overall. The participating laboratories provided their own dosimeters that were mounted on the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) BOttle Manikin ABsorption (BOMAB) phantoms and aluminum plates. The BOMABs and plates were placed at two, three, and four meters away from the center of Godiva. Alongside the NADs, there was a LLNL Passive Neutron Spectrometer (PNS), Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) PNS, and Y-12 Sphere present to measure the neutron dose from Godiva. Two irradiations were conducted to test the NAD performance from each laboratory and assesses their performance to the DOE-STD-1098-2017 part 515 criteria. Neutron and gamma doses were measured prior to this exercise. This work presents a model for the neutron and gamma dose respectively to serve as the reference value. A code written in C/C++/ROOT was used to fit the measured neutron and gamma dose with the new models. It was assumed that the neutron and gamma doses are proportional to the change in temperature of Godiva after a burst irradiation. Uncertainties for the reference values were calculated using error propagation of the model’s parameters. Preliminary results (within twenty-four hours) and final results were compared for each laboratory. On average of all the participating laboratories, 32% of neutron doses and 78% of gamma doses were outside the DOE standards. One laboratory did not report their dose readings and were not included in this average. There is a bias for a lower neutron dose and a higher gamma dose based on the distribution of results. In comparison with the past Godiva-IV NAD exercise, there is an improvement in neutron dose readings by 20%.

BOttle Manikin ABsorption (BOMAB)↗

Four methods of attitude determination for spin-stabilized spacecraft with applications and comparative results

The attitude of a spacecraft is determined by specifying independent parameters which relate the spacecraft axes to an inertial coordinate system. Sensors which measure angles between spin axis and other vectors directed to objects or fields external to the spacecraft are discussed. For the spin-stabilized spacecraft considered, the spin axis is constant over at least an orbit, but separate solutions based on sensor angle measurements are different due to propagation of errors. Sensor-angle solution methods are described which minimize the propagated errors by making use of least squares techniques over many sensor angle measurements and by solving explicitly (in closed form) for the spin axis coordinates. These methods are compared with star observation solutions to determine if satisfactory accuracy is obtained by each method.

Smith, G. A.↗

The JPL millimeter, submillimeter and microwave line catalog

The catalog includes molecules of interest in the interstellar medium, in planetary atmospheres and in the Earth's atmosphere. Different units than those on the AFGL tape are used. For citing line frequencies in the microwave region. Either the experimental errors or the propagation of errors from the fit are included on the tape. This gives an estimate of how accurate the frequencies are. The intensity units are defined as follows: the logarithm of the intensity unit is the cross section times the frequency in MHz. This is essentially the same unit as on the AFGL tape, but contains fewer factors of the speed of light. The catalog is available to the scientific community either as a tape or on microfiche (filmed in frequency sorted and molecule sorted format).

Pickett, H.↗

Application of in-flight thrust determination uncertainty

A numerical example is given of a previously proposed methodology for the evaluation of in-flight thrust measurement uncertainty, using data extracted from a performance report comparing two different missile prototypes under a variety of flight conditions. Attention is given to the data for the AGM-68B Air Launched Cruise Missile, which is powered by the F107 dual-spool, mixed flow turbofan engine. Assessments are made of the definition of the measurement process, instrumentation error estimation, the propagation of errors to thrust calculation, mathematical model errors, the in-flight thrust error component, and correction to standard conditions. It is concluded that in-flight thrust measurement uncertainty limits can be evaluated from measurement system error analysis results and test data for the missile evaluation process presently described.

Adams, G. R.↗

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Method and Uncertainties - Part 1

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Olson, William S.↗

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Improved Method and Uncertainties - Part 1

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and nonconvective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud-resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain-rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in TMI instantaneous rain-rate estimates at 0.5 -resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. Errors in collocated spaceborne radar rain-rate estimates are roughly 50%-80% of the TMI errors at this resolution. The estimated algorithm random error in TMI rain rates at monthly, 2.5deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm day.1) in comparison with the random error resulting from infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8%-35% at the same rain rate). Percentage errors resulting from sampling decrease with increasing rain rate, and sampling errors in latent heating rates follow the same trend. Averaging over 3 months reduces sampling errors in rain rates to 6%-15% at 5 mm day.1, with proportionate reductions in latent heating sampling errors.

Olson, William S.↗

Profiling the molecular destruction rates of temperature and humidity as well as the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation in the convective boundary layer

A simultaneous deployment of Doppler, temperature, and water-vapor lidars is able to provide profiles of molecular destruction rates and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation in the convective boundary layer (CBL). Horizontal wind profiles and profiles of vertical wind, temperature, and moisture fluctuations are combined, and transversal temporal autocovariance functions (ACFs) are determined for deriving the dissipation and molecular destruction rates. These are fundamental loss terms in the TKE as well as the potential temperature and mixing ratio variance equations. These ACFs are fitted to their theoretical shapes and coefficients in the inertial subrange. Error bars are estimated by a propagation of noise errors. Sophisticated analyses of the ACFs are performed in order to choose the correct range of lags of the fits for fitting their theoretical shapes in the inertial subrange as well as for minimizing systematic errors due to temporal and spatial averaging and micro- and mesoscale circulations. We demonstrate that we achieve very consistent results of the derived profiles of turbulent variables regardless of whether 1 or 10 s time resolutions are used. We also show that the temporal and spatial length scales of the fluctuations in vertical wind, moisture, and potential temperature are similar with a spatial integral scale of ≈160 m at least in the mixed layer (ML). The profiles of the molecular destruction rates show a maximum in the interfacial layer (IL) and reach values of ϵ m ≃ 7 x 10 -4 g 2 kg −2 s −1 for mixing ratio and ϵ θ ≃ 1.6 x 10 -3 K 2 s −1 for potential temperature. In contrast, the maximum of the TKE dissipation is reached in the ML and amounts to ≃ 10 -2 m 2 s −3 . We also demonstrate that the vertical wind ACF coefficient k w ∝ $\overline{w'^{2}}$ and the TKE dissipation ϵ ∝ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 3/2 . For the molecular destruction rates, we show that ϵ m ∝ $\overline{m'^{2}}$ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 1/2 and ϵ θ ∝ $\overline{θ'^{2}}$ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 1/2 . These equations can be used for parameterizations of ϵ, ϵ m , and ϵ θ . All noise error bars are derived by error propagation and are small enough to compare the results with previous observations and large-eddy simulations. The results agree well with previous observations but show more detailed structures in the IL. Consequently, the synergy resulting from this new combination of active remote sensors enables the profiling of turbulent variables such as integral scales, variances, TKE dissipation, and the molecular destruction rates as well as deriving relationships between them. The results can be used for the parameterization of turbulent variables, TKE budget analyses, and the verification of large-eddy simulations.

dissipation rate↗