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At least 217 records · Page 12

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗

The use of optimal polarizations for studying the microphysics of precipitation: Nonattenuating wavelengths

The objective of this work is to explore relationships between the microphysical properties of precipitation and optimal polarizations. The dependence of three optimal polarization parameters (asymmetry ratio A, optimal tilt tau(sub op), and optimal ellipticity epsilon(sub op) on the reflectivity-weighted mean drop shape, mean canting angle, and standard deviation of a Gaussian canting angle distribution is studied. This is accomplished by using computer simulations that provide the rms scattering matrix for an ensemble of canted drops with a prescribed two-parameter canting angle distribution. Also examined are the effects of propagation on the polarization parameters for nonattenuating wavelengths. The asymmetry ratio A is simply the ratio of the maximal to minimal total backscattered energy (ratio of the largest and smallest eigenvalue of the Graves power matrix G is identically equal to S dagger S). Similar to Z(sub DR), this ratio decreases with increasing mean axial ratio, but unlike Z(sub DR), it is not affected by canting (for a single drop). The dependence of A on the reflectivity-weighted mean drop shape is examined, and a power-law relationship similar to that which exists for Z(sub DR) is established. The asymmetry ratio A can be regarded as a generalization of Z(sub DR) because it requires only a measurement of linear depolarization ratio (in addition to Z(sub DR)), is independent of the propagation phase, and is less sensitive to canting. In a similar manner, the dependence of optimal ellipticity and tilt on the microphysical parameters is studied. In particular, it appears that the rms tilt of the optimal polarization ellipse is proportional to the variance of the canting angle distribution. Several other promising relationships between optimal polarizations and the microphysical variables of an ensemble of hydrometeors are also discussed.

Kwiatkowski, John M.↗

Ensembles of Metastable States Govern Heterogeneous Catalysis on Dynamic Interfaces

Heterogeneous catalysis is at the heart of chemical industry. Being able to tune and design efficient catalysts for processes of interest is of an utmost importance, and for this, the molecular-level understanding of heterogeneous catalysts is the first step, and indeed a prime focus of the modern catalysis research. For a long time, a single most thermodynamically stable structure of the catalytic interface attained in reaction conditions had been envisioned as the reactive phase. However, some catalytic interfaces continue to undergo structural dynamics in the steady state, triggered by high temperatures, pressures, and binding and changing reagents. Among particularly dynamic interfaces are such widely-used catalysts as crystalline and amorphous surfaced supporting (sub-)nano metallic clusters. Recently, it became clear that this dynamic fluxionality causes the supported clusters to populate many distinct structural and stoichiometric states in catalytic conditions. Hence, the catalytic interface should be viewed as an evolving statistical ensemble of many (not one) structures. As such, every member in the ensemble contributes to the properties of the catalyst differently, and in proportion to its probability to be populated. This new notion flips the established paradigm and calls for new theory, modeling approaches, operando measurements, and updated design strategies. The statistical ensemble nature of surface-supported sub-nano cluster catalysts can be exemplified by oxide-supported and adsorbate-covered Pt, Pd, Cu, CuPd clusters, catalytic toward oxidative and non-oxidative dehydrogenation. They have access to a variety of 3D and quasi-2D shapes. The compositions of their thermal ensembles are dependent on the cluster size, leading to size-specific catalytic activities and the famous “every atom counts” phenomenon. The support and adsorbates affect catalyst structures, and state of the reacting species causes the ensemble to change in every reaction intermediate. The most stable member of the ensemble dominates the thermodynamic properties of the corresponding intermediate, whereas the kinetics can be determined by more active but less populated metastable catalyst states, and that suggests that many earlier studies might have overlooked the actual active sites. Both effects depend on the relative time-scales of catalyst restructuring and reaction dynamics. The catalyst may routinely operate off-equilibrium. Ensemble phenomena lead to surprising exceptions from established rules of catalysis, such as scaling relations, and Arrhenius behavior. Catalyst deactivation is also an ensemble property, and its extent of mitigation can be predicted through the new paradigm. These findings were enabled by advances in theory, such as global optimization and subsequent utilization of multiple local minima, and pathways sampling, as well as operando catalyst characterization. The fact that the per-site and per-species resolution is needed for the description and predicting of catalyst properties gives theory the central role in catalysis research, as most experiments provide ensemble-average information and cannot detect the crucial minority species that may be responsible for the catalytic activity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Multiyear Gridded Data Ensemble of Surface Biogenic Carbon Fluxes for North America: Evaluation and Analysis of Results

Accurate and fine-scale estimates of biogenic carbon fluxes are critical for measuring and monitoring the biosphere's responses and feedback to the climate system. Currently available data products from flux towers and model-intercomparison projects struggle to adequately represent spatiotemporal dynamics of surface biogenic carbon fluxes, and to quantify their uncertainties, which also are crucial to atmospheric inversion systems. To address these gaps, we introduce a new perturbed-parameter model ensemble with the CASA model to estimate surface biogenic carbon fluxes at monthly and 3-hourly scales for North America at ~500-m and 5-km resolutions. We first use the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing to choose the three most sensitive parameters to be perturbed, maximum light use efficiency (E max ), optimal temperature of photosynthesis (T opt ), and temperature response of respiration (Q 10 ). The initial range for each parameter is broadly sampled for the L1 ensemble, but then we pruned E max with site-level primary productivity to derive an L2 ensemble with narrower uncertainty ranges. Ensembles are strongly correlated with site-level results at both monthly and 3-hourly scales, and the spread across L1/L2 ensemble members encompasses the range of AmeriFlux observations. Monthly variability in the L2 ensemble mean is 85% of the observed variability. The L2 ensemble outperforms diverse data products with the highest Taylor skill scores at diurnal to annual scales. Finally, the ensemble's seasonality agrees well with other models for most biome types and in high and middle latitudes, but inconsistencies are found in subtropical and tropical ecoregions and for annual totals over North America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitigation of nitrogen vacancy photoluminescence quenching from material integration for quantum sensing

The nitrogen-vacancy (NV) color center in diamond has demonstrated great promise in a wide range of quantum sensing. Recently, there have been a series of proposals and experiments using NV centers to detect spin noise of quantum materials near the diamond surface. This is a rich complex area of study with novel nano-magnetism and electronic behavior, that the NV center would be ideal for sensing. However, due to the electronic properties of the NV itself and its host material, getting high quality NV centers within nanometers of such systems is challenging. Band bending caused by space charges formed at the metal-semiconductor interface force the NV center into its insensitive charge states. Here, we investigate optimizing this interface by depositing thin metal films and thin insulating layers on a series of NV ensembles at different depths to characterize the impact of metal films on different ensemble depths. We find an improvement of coherence and dephasing times we attribute to ionization of other paramagnetic defects. The insulating layer of alumina between the metal and diamond provide improved photoluminescence and higher sensitivity in all modes of sensing as compared to direct contact with the metal, providing as much as a factor of 2 increase in sensitivity, decrease of integration time by a factor of 4, for NV T 1 relaxometry measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determining the Adsorption Energetics of 2,3-Butanediol on RuO 2 (110): Coupling First-Principles Calculations With Global Optimizers

As climate change continues to pose a threat to the Earth due to the disrupted carbon cycles and fossil fuel resources remain finite, new sources of sustainable hydrocarbons must be explored. 2,3-butanediol is a potential source to produce butene because of its sustainability as a biomass-derived sugar. Butene is an attractive product because it can be used as a precursor to jet fuel, categorizing this work in the alcohol-to-jet pathway. While studies have explored the conversion of 2,3-butanediol to butene, little is understood about the fundamental reaction itself. We quantify the energetics for three pathways that were reported in the literature in the absence of a catalyst. One of these pathways forms a 1,3-butadiene intermediate, which is a highly exothermic process and thus is unlikely to occur since 2,3-butanediol likely gets thermodynamically trapped at this intermediate. We further determined the corresponding energetics of 2,3-butanediol adsorption on an ensemble of predetermined binding sites when it interacts with a defect-free stoichiometric RuO 2 (110) surface. Within this ensemble of adsorption sites, the most favorable site has 2,3-butanediol covering a Ru 5–coordinated cation. This approach is compared to that obtained using the global optimization algorithm as implemented in the Northwest Potential Energy Surface Search Engine. When using such a global optimization algorithm, we determined a more favorable ground-state structure that was missed during the manual adsorption site testing, with an adsorption energy of -2.61 eV as compared to -2.34 eV when using the ensemble-based approach. We hypothesize that the dehydration reaction requires a stronger chemical bond, which could necessitate the formation of oxygen vacancies. As such, this study has taken the first step toward the utilization of a global optimization algorithm for the rational design of Ru-based catalysts toward the formation of butene from sustainable resources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Land Model Testbed: Accelerating Development, Benchmarking and Analysis of Land Surface Models

A Land Model Testbed (LMT), designed to provide a computational framework for systematically assessing model fidelity and supporting rapid development of complex multiscale models, offers a general-purpose workflow for conducting large ensemble simulations of multiple land surface models, post-processing large volumes of model output, and evaluating model results. It leverages existing tools for launching model simulations and the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for assessing model fidelity through comparison with best-available observational datasets. Increased complexity and proliferation of uncertain parameters in process representations in land surface models has driven the need for frequent and intensive testing and evaluating of models to quantify uncertainties and optimize parameters such that results are consistent with observations. The LMT described here meets these needs by providing tools to run thousands of ensemble simulations simultaneously and post-process their output files, by automating execution of an enhanced version of ILAMB with site-specific benchmarks and multivariate functional relationships, and by offering ensemble diagnostics and a customizable dashboard for displaying model performance metrics and associated graphics. We envision the LMT capabilities will serve as a foundational computational resource for a proposed user facility focused on terrestrial multiscale model--data integration.

Sreepathi, Sarat↗

Nanotesla Magnetometry with the Silicon Vacancy in Silicon Carbide

Silicon carbide is a promising host material for spin-defect-based quantum sensors owing to its commercial availability and established techniques for electrical and optical microfabricated device integration. The negatively charged silicon vacancy is one of the leading spin defects studied in silicon carbide owing to its near-telecom photoemission, high spin number, and nearly temperature-independent ground-state zero-field splitting. We report the realization of nanotesla shot-noise-limited ensemble magnetometry based on optically detected magnetic resonance with the silicon vacancy in 4H silicon carbide. By coarsely optimizing the anneal parameters and minimizing power broadening, we achieve a sensitivity of 50 nT/√Hz and a theoretical shot-noise-limited sensitivity of 3.5 nT/√Hz. This is accomplished without utilizing complex photonic engineering, control protocols, or applying excitation powers greater than a watt. This work demonstrates that the silicon vacancy in silicon carbide provides a low-cost and simple approach to quantum sensing of magnetic fields.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Automated Data Accountability for Missions in Mars Rover Data

As the Mars Curiosity Rover transmits data to the JPL Ground Data System (GDS), it frequently observes data loss and corruption, requiring re-transmits from the rover and Ground Data System Analysts (GDSA) to monitor the downlink process. As new missions are launched, the GDSA team redistributes analysts to these new missions, causing shortages in previous missions. The GDSA team can significantly benefit from the automation and optimization of the downlink process of telemetry data. In fact, there is a need for a better understanding of why the data is corrupted, so that the GDSA team can best determine the root cause of the issues in the GDS. This paper presents machine learning and deep learning based approaches to automate and optimize the detection of data loss. We first created a pipeline to automatically accumulate data from the telemetry databases (MAROS, Telemetry Data Storage, and GDS Elastic Search Database) in the downlink process. With our newly created datasets, we perform feature selection to supplement the GDSA understanding of the downlink process and provide supplemental analysis on the importance of different features. We implement various machine learning and deep learning based models, including support vector machines, ensemble methods, and deep neural networks and evaluate their accuracies in identifying whether a downlink process is complete or incomplete. We utilize fast hyperparameter optimization methods that allow our models to quickly be re-trained, allowing them to quickly be tuned and optimized on daily incoming data in real time. This hyperparameter optimization also allows our methods to be quickly integrated into other JPL missions. Our results show that our best-performing machine learning and deep learning based models outperform the existing GDSA detection software by 6 accuracy points and can aid analysts by providing insights into the data accountability problem. Since these various machine learning and deep learning approaches vary significantly in interpretability, we provide a discussion on the tradeoffs between their performance and trustworthiness in helping detect issues in data transmission.

Divsalar, Dariush↗

Quantum Adiabatic Optimization and Combinatorial Landscapes

In this paper we analyze the performance of the Quantum Adiabatic Evolution (QAE) algorithm on a variant of Satisfiability problem for an ensemble of random graphs parametrized by the ratio of clauses to variables, gamma = M / N. We introduce a set of macroscopic parameters (landscapes) and put forward an ansatz of universality for random bit flips. We then formulate the problem of finding the smallest eigenvalue and the excitation gap as a statistical mechanics problem. We use the so-called annealing approximation with a refinement that a finite set of macroscopic variables (verses only energy) is used, and are able to show the existence of a dynamic threshold gamma = gammad, beyond which QAE should take an exponentially long time to find a solution. We compare the results for extended and simplified sets of landscapes and provide numerical evidence in support of our universality ansatz.

Smelyanskiy, V. N.↗

Programmable interactions and emergent geometry in an array of atom clouds

Interactions govern the flow of information and the formation of correlations between constituents of many-body quantum systems, dictating phases of matter found in nature and forms of entanglement generated in the laboratory. Typical interactions decay with distance and thus produce a network of connectivity governed by geometry—such as the crystalline structure of a material or the trapping sites of atoms in a quantum simulator. However, many envisioned applications in quantum simulation and computation require more complex coupling graphs including non-local interactions, which feature in models of information scrambling in black hole, and mappings of hard optimization problems onto frustrated classical magnets. Here we describe the realization of programmable non-local interactions in an array of atomic ensembles within an optical cavity, in which photons carry information between atomic spins. By programming the distance dependence of the interactions, we access effective geometries for which the dimensionality, topology and metric are entirely distinct from the physical geometry of the array. As examples, we engineer an antiferromagnetic triangular ladder, a Möbius strip with sign-changing interactions and a treelike geometry inspired by concepts of quantum gravity. The tree graph constitutes a toy model of holographic duality, in which the quantum system lies on the boundary of a higher-dimensional geometry that emerges from measured correlations. Overall, our work provides broader prospects for simulating frustrated magnets and topological phases, investigating quantum optimization paradigms and engineering entangled resource states for sensing and computation.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

MARS: Malleable Actor-Critic Reinforcement Learning Scheduler

In this paper, we introduce MARS, a new scheduling system for HPC-cloud infrastructures based on a cost-aware, flexible reinforcement learning approach, which serves as an intermediate layer for next generation HPC-cloud resource manager. MARS ensembles the pre-trained models from heuristic workloads and decides on the most cost-effective strategy for optimization. A whole workflow application would be split into several optimizable dependent sub-tasks, then based on the pre- defined resource management plan, a reward will be generated after executing a scheduled task. Lastly, MARS updates the Deep Neural Network (DNN) model based on the reward. MARS is designed to optimize the existing models through reinforcement mechanisms. MARS adapts to the dynamics of workflow applications, selects the most cost-effective scheduling solution among pre-built scheduling strategies (backfilling, SJF, etc.) and self- learning deep neural network model at run-time. We evaluate MARS with different real-world workflow traces. MARS can achieve 5%-60% increased performance compare to state-of-the- art approaches.

Baheri, Betis↗

Efficient Unitary Designs from Random Sums and Permutations

A unitary k-design is an ensemble of unitaries that matches the first k moments of the Haar measure. In this work, we provide two efficient constructions of k-designs on n-qubits using new random matrix theory techniques. Our first construction is based on exponentiating sums of random i.i.d. Hermitian matrices and uses O(k2n2)-many gates. In the spirit of central limit theorems, we show that this random sum approximates the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble (GUE). We then show that the product of just two exponentiated GUE matrices is already approximately Haar random. Our second construction is based on products of exponentiated sums of random permutations and uses Õ(k poly (n)) many gates. The k dependence is optimal (up to polylogarithmic factors) and is inherited from the efficiency of existing k-wise independent permutations. Furthermore, replacing random permutations with quantum-secure pseudorandom permutations (PRPs), we also obtain a pseudorandom unitary (PRU) ensemble that is secure under nonadaptive queries. A central feature of both proofs is a new connection between the polynomial method in quantum query complexity and the large-dimension (N) expansion in random matrix theory. In particular, the first construction uses the polynomial method to control high moments of certain random matrix ensembles without requiring delicate Weingarten calculations. In doing so, we define and solve a moment problem on the unit circle, asking whether a finite number of equally weighted points can reproduce a given set of moments. In our second construction, the key step is to exhibit an orthonormal basis for irreducible representations of the partition algebra that has a low-degree large-N expansion. This allows us to show that the distinguishing probability is a low-degree rational polynomial of the dimension N.

algebra↗

Ensemble Manufacturing Techniques for Steam Turbine Components Across Length Scales

Faster design to manufacturing requirements were sought for steam turbine components to meet the changing demands of today’s power grid of improved efficiency through operating temperature increases and enhanced operational flexibility from baseload to cyclic operations. Advances in multiple advanced manufacturing (AM) process enabled redesign of turbine components for extreme environments with the potential to reduce cost. AM is of particular interest to improve component functionality, higher temperature capability, and superior durability in large scale steam turbine applications. AM methods have an immense potential to open-up the design space by working directly with the 3D model to produce near-net shapes, enable fast design-manufacturing iterations, thereby significantly reducing product cost and lead-time up to 25 % from current baseline. However, these benefits cannot be fully realized due to the potential for unknown AM processing defects and their resultant effect upon component performance in service. Siemens is partnering with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Connecticut Center for Advanced Technology (CCAT) to advance the knowledge of complex process-material interactions for desired microstructures and properties that are closely interlinked to component geometries across different length scales. The proposed program utilized an ensemble of multidisciplinary technologies to accelerate the development of materials, high-throughput experiments for their qualification, and design flexibility/topology optimization for repair/redesign of components to address critical failure mechanisms for improved performance and increased reliability of existing power plant components. The proposed activities, if successfully demonstrated for identified components, will enable paradigm shift in customized manufacturing and accelerated qualification/certification towards increased steam turbine component durability, increased turbine efficiency, and reduced CO 2 emissions in load-following environments compared to today’s technology. Technology maturation is built into the project as successful research will include customized process-component down-selection enabling AM methodologies to be incorporated directly into the existing supply chain. The specific activities of the proposed effort are: 1. Topology optimization of down-selected steam turbine parts that are amenable to additive and hybrid manufacturing for cost/performance improvement. 2. Process-structure-property relationships for five AM processes for steam turbine materials of interest to compare with conventional materials. 3. Perform part/assembly build process using advanced additive/hybrid machine tools followed by quality inspection of the built components for insight into qualification for production scale-up. Steam turbine rig testing of printed components under targeted, well monitored and characterized environmental conditions of for performance comparison of baseline and redesigned components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structural modelling and control design under incomplete parameter information: The maximum-entropy approach

A stochastic structural control model is described. In contrast to the customary deterministic model, the stochastic minimum data/maximum entropy model directly incorporates the least possible a priori parameter information. The approach is to adopt this model as the basic design model, thus incorporating the effects of parameter uncertainty at a fundamental level, and design mean-square optimal controls (that is, choose the control law to minimize the average of a quadratic performance index over the parameter ensemble).

Hyland, D. C.↗

The OMPS Limb Profiler Instrument: An Alternative Data Analysis and Retrieval Algorithm

The upcoming Ozone Mapper and Profiler Suite (OMPS), which will be launched on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) platform in early 2011, will continue monitoring the global distribution of the Earth's middle atmosphere ozone and aerosol. OMPS is composed of three instruments, namely the Total Column Mapper (heritage: TOMS, OMI), the Nadir Profiler (heritage: SBUV) and the Limb Profiler (heritage: SOLSE/LORE, OSIRIS, SCIAMACHY, SAGE III). The ultimate goal of the mission is to better understand and quantify the rate of stratospheric ozone recovery. The focus of the paper will be on the Limb Profiler (LP) instrument. The LP instrument will measure the Earth fs limb radiance (which is due to the scattering of solar photons by air molecules, aerosol and Earth surface) in the ultra-violet (UV), visible and near infrared, from 285 to 1000 nm. The LP simultaneously images the whole vertical extent of the Earth's limb through three vertical slits, each covering a vertical tangent height range of 100 km and each horizontally spaced by 250 km in the cross-track direction. The focal plane of the LP spectrometer is a two ]dimensional CCD array comprised of 340 x 740 pixels. Several data analysis tools are presently being constructed and tested to retrieve ozone and aerosol vertical distribution from limb radiance measurements. The primary NASA algorithm is based on earlier algorithms developed for the SOLSE/LORE and SAGE III limb scatter missions. The paper will describe an alternative algorithm which will retrieve ozone density and aerosol extinction directly from radiance data collected on individual CCD pixels. This alternative method uses an optimal estimation approach to retrieve ozone and aerosol in the 10-60 km range from the information contained within an ensemble of about 50000 down-linked pixels. Tangent height registration is performed using the Rayleigh Scattering Attitude Sensor (RSAS) technique applied to columns of pixels in the 340-360 nm range. Cloud height is determined by analyzing the radiance first derivative along pixel columns at longer wavelengths. Wavelength registration is performed using rows of pixels and identifying Fraunhofer solar lines within the measured spectra. Special attention is given to stray-light decontamination and modeling of the measured finite spectral/spatial line shape functions.

Rault, Didier F.↗

Lessons Learned from Assimilating Altimeter Data into a Coupled General Circulation Model with the GMAO Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter

Satellite altimetry measurements have provided global, evenly distributed observations of the ocean surface since 1993. However, the difficulties introduced by the presence of model biases and the requirement that data assimilation systems extrapolate the sea surface height (SSH) information to the subsurface in order to estimate the temperature, salinity and currents make it difficult to optimally exploit these measurements. This talk investigates the potential of the altimetry data assimilation once the biases are accounted for with an ad hoc bias estimation scheme. Either steady-state or state-dependent multivariate background-error covariances from an ensemble of model integrations are used to address the problem of extrapolating the information to the sub-surface. The GMAO ocean data assimilation system applied to an ensemble of coupled model instances using the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 is used in the investigation. To model the background error covariances, the system relies on a hybrid ensemble approach in which a small number of dynamically evolved model trajectories is augmented on the one hand with past instances of the state vector along each trajectory and, on the other, with a steady state ensemble of error estimates from a time series of short-term model forecasts. A state-dependent adaptive error-covariance localization and inflation algorithm controls how the SSH information is extrapolated to the sub-surface. A two-step predictor corrector approach is used to assimilate future information. Independent (not-assimilated) temperature and salinity observations from Argo floats are used to validate the assimilation. A two-step projection method in which the system first calculates a SSH increment and then projects this increment vertically onto the temperature, salt and current fields is found to be most effective in reconstructing the sub-surface information. The performance of the system in reconstructing the sub-surface fields is particularly impressive for temperature, but not as satisfactory for salt.

Keppenne, Christian↗