Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “energy prices”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

Transactive Energy System Deployment Over Insecure Communication Links

Here, in this paper, the privacy and security issues associated with the transactive energy system (TES) deployment over insecure communication links are addressed. In particular, it is ensured that 1) individual agents’ bidding information is kept private throughout hierarchical market-based interactions; and 2) any extraneous data injection attack can be quickly and easily detected. An implementation framework is proposed to enable the cryptography-based enhancement of privacy and security for the deployment of any general hierarchical systems including TESs. Under the proposed framework, a unified cryptography-based approach is developed to achieve both privacy and security simultaneously. Specifically, privacy preservation is realized by an enhanced Paillier encryption scheme, where a block design is proposed to significantly improve computational efficiency. Attack detection is further achieved by an enhanced Paillier digital signature scheme, where a stamp-concatenation mechanism is proposed to enable detection of data replace and reorder attacks. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed cyber-resilient design for transactive energy systems. Note to Practitioners—This paper is motivated by addressing the issues of cyber resiliency for practically deploying transactive energy system (TES) but it is also applicable to the problem of enhancing the privacy and security for any general hierarchical control systems. TES is an emerging control approach that engages energy suppliers and customers through market operations and uses the price to optimally allocate energy resources. While it has been shown to be promising for power system applications, the underlying market-based interactions raise significant concerns of privacy (data leakage) and security (data tampering). However, existing TES works only focus on the coordination mechanism instead of privacy and security issues. This paper proposes a new cryptography-based TES design for practical deployment. Specifically, to protect privacy, individual supply and demand amounts to be exchanged are all encrypted in a particular way such that the original amounts cannot be inferred from the encrypted amounts, while the desired computation for setting the market clearing price can be carried out over the encrypted amounts, thus generating an encrypted result which, when decrypted, matches that of the same computation over the original amounts. To achieve security, for each exchanged data, its sender generates a particular digital signature which is exchanged together with the data. This enables the receiver to automatically detect the integrity by checking whether a mathematical relationship holds for the pair of data and signature. In our future research, we will investigate more challenging scenarios where some suppliers and customers themselves could be corrupted and purposely submit distorted amounts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The interaction of wholesale electricity market structures under futures with decarbonization policy goals: A complexity conundrum

Competitive wholesale electricity markets can help facilitate energy system decarbonization by incentivizing investments in clean energy technologies that meet evolving system needs. We explore market structure impacts on generator operations and deployment by risk-averse, heterogeneous investor firms using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite - Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Here we apply clean energy targets of 45%-100% by 2035 considering energy, ancillary services, capacity, and clean energy credit products and pricing and eligibility rules. Results highlight a complexity conundrum, whereby finding the "right" market design to achieve decarbonization goals and avoid unintended consequences can be a highly-nuanced, non-incremental challenge. Carefully designed energy-only markets can achieve the same clean energy targets as capacity market structures but with different revenue and profitability outcomes. Operating reserve demand curve-based scarcity pricing can substitute capacity markets for similar deployment outcomes. Carbon pricing alone is most effective at achieving decarbonization levels at low clean energy targets, and clean energy credit markets and carbon pricing are substitutionary at high clean energy targets. Restricting technology participation in capacity and operating reserve markets can impact deployment and operations, even for nonrestricted technologies. Adding an inertia product with fast frequency response yields insufficient provision at high clean energy targets, but work is needed to understand frequency requirements and capabilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

RODeO (Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model) [SWR 20-67]

The Revenue, Operation, and Device Optimization (RODeO) model explores optimal system design and operation considering different levels of grid integration, equipment cost, operating limitations, financing, and credits and incentives. RODeO is a price-taker model formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model in the GAMS modeling platform. The objective is to maximizes the net revenue for a collection of equipment at a given site. The equipment includes generators (e.g., gas turbine, steam turbine, solar, wind, hydro, fuel cells, etc.), storage systems (batteries, pumped hydro, gas-fired compressed air energy storage, long-duration systems, hydrogen), and flexible loads (e.g., electric vehicles, electrolyzers, flexible building loads). The input data required by RODeO can be classified into three bins: 1) utility service data, which refers to retail utility rate information (meter cost, energy and demand charges), 2) electricity market data, which include energy and reserve prices, 3) other inputs, which refer to additional electrical demand, product output demand, technological assumptions, financial properties, and operational parameters.

Guerra Fernandez, Omar Jose↗

Gravity Well Commercial Economics Assessment: Potential Revenue and Cost: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

In the Gravity Well Revenue Study, we evaluate the potential revenue from energy storage using historical energy-only electricity prices, forward-looking projections of hourly electricity prices, and actual reported revenue. This analysis examines the impact of storage duration and round-trip efficiency, as well as the location of the storage, on storage revenue within the current and projected U.S. power system. We also investigated the impact of round-trip efficiency on storage revenue. We found that the relationship between storage revenue and round-trip efficiency is nonlinear. The value of improved round-trip efficiency declines as round-trip efficiency increases. In the Gravity Well Future Cost Study, we applied learning curves to predict the future cost trajectory of Gravity Wells (GrWs). Two types of analysis were implemented. The first was a bottom-up analysis that used historical learning rates for cost components, such as motors and gearboxes, and cost categories (e.g., engineering and design, etc.) to determine the learning-by-doing based single-factor learning curve. The single factor learning curve expresses the relationship between the cost of GrW and the number of units deployed (or the cumulative capacity). In the second analysis, we predicted future GrW costs via a top-down approach. This approach accounts for historical cost trends in other renewable energy and storage technologies, which have similarities with GrWs. Using a multifactor learning curve that accounts for both intrinsic (cumulative capacity) and extrinsic (the elasticity in the price of steel) factors, we estimated the future cost of GrWs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Can economic drivers enable an affordable, reliable, and resilient energy system in rural Alaska?

Price subsidies, such as the Alaska Power Cost Equalization (PCE) program, are intended to provide affordable energy. However, these economic drivers may be barriers to a clean energy transition and economic development, especially in rural Alaska. Reliable and affordable energy, a challenge in rural Alaska, is the foundation for individual and community security and economic development. Addressing the climate change crisis requires a sustainable transition to decarbonized energy systems that are more equitable, reliable, and affordable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Overcoming Challenges to Nuclear-Maritime Applications

This report is the fifth deliverable in a series of reports set forth by the Department of Energy (DOE), led by the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS), for the research award titled “Accelerating Commercial Maritime Demonstration Projects for Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies.” The report highlights guidance to bridge the gaps between innovative nuclear technologies and their practical implementation in maritime environments. The previous reports discussed specific technical, economic and regulatory challenges that may be expected when developing and establishing advanced nuclear technologies for commercial maritime applications. This report supports the mission of the U.S. National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) to demonstrate projects with industry and acts as a resource for the various stakeholders associated with the development of novel applications for advanced reactors. The previous reports discuss the interest in nuclear technology applications for decarbonized energy and identify the potential demands in nuclear energy supply and price. The work in these reports supports the recently issued nuclear Executive Orders (EOs). Specifically, EO 14299, “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”, and EO 14300, “Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission,” by ensuring the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies; and increasing the deployment of new nuclear reactor technologies, such as Generation III+ and IV reactors, modular reactors, and microreactors to support America leading the commercialization of affordable and abundant nuclear energy.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Green Power Market (2021 Data)

This data book provides certain data behind figures and tables found in the NREL presentation "Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market (2021 Data)." These data reflect estimates based on the best available data. Excluded Data This data book excludes data for certain figures using confidential survey data or purchased data for which NREL does not own the rights. In particular, renewable energy certificate (REC) price data are not included in this data book Rounding: Some estimates may be slightly inconsistent across tabs due to estimate rounding Citation for the data: E. O'Shaughnessy and J. Heeter. 2022. Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market. Golden, CO: NREL. For more information: contact Jenny Heeter (jenny.heeter@nrel.gov). For more information on voluntary green power markets see NREL's resources at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/green-power.html. Acronyms CCA Community choice aggregation MWh Megawatt hour PPA Power purchase agreement RECs Renewable energy certificate

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Economic Incentives for Agrivoltaics Systems with Commodity Crops in the Midwestern United States

Declining costs of photovoltaic (PV) technology and rising market and policy incentives are leading to the growing deployment of PV on cropland in the US Midwest, leading to concerns about the displacement of food and feed crop production. Agrivoltaic (AV) technology enables the dual use of land by co-locating PV energy and crop production, potentially reducing land-use competition with crop production. We develop a benefit-cost analysis framework to compare the net economic returns from AV to those with stand-alone PV and crop production on a representative field and show conditions under which AV can be more profitable for both a solar developer and a farmer. We integrate it with a crop and solar energy model to simulate the performance of various field designs and space and height configurations in AV systems to accommodate soybean production with conventional farm equipment under representative conditions in the US Midwest. We find that an AV system with soybean production is less profitable than PV alone for a solar developer due to the high capital costs of raising panel height, and less profitable for a farmer than leasing land for PV due to its adverse effects of shading on crop yield. We discuss the changes in technology and market prices of solar energy and soybeans that are necessary to make the AV system profitable for solar developers and farmers. We show that AV can worsen rather than mitigate the conflict between food crops and solar energy production in the Midwest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Operational Simulation of Multi-Functional Charging Station for Sustainable Transportation

As transportation systems move toward electrification and decarbonization, multifunctional charging stations (MFCS) are emerging as key infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). This paper presents a simulation model of an MFCS that integrates solar photovoltaic (PV), wind power, battery storage, hydrogen (\mathrm{H}_{2}) production, dual-pressure \mathrm{H}_{2} storage, fuel cells, and dynamic grid interactions. The model simulates daily operations using 5 -minute resolution data to capture realtime variability in renewable energy (RE), demand, and electricity prices. A flexible dispatch algorithm dynamically allocates energy for EV charging, \mathrm{H}_{2} production, storage, and grid transactions while respecting system constraints. Results show that the MFCS effectively prioritizes RE usage, minimizes waste, meets diverse energy demands, and achieves net operational profit. The model serves as a valuable decision-support tool for designing and optimizing integrated clean energy hubs for zero-emission transportation.

Gbadegoye, Jeremiah [University of Tennessee, Knox↗

Exploring the Future Energy Value of Long-Duration Energy Storage

Long-duration energy storage is commonly viewed as a key technology for providing flexibility to the grid and broader energy systems over a multidecadal time frame. However, prior work has typically used present-day grid infrastructures to characterize the relationship between the duration and arbitrage value of storage in electricity markets. This study leverages established National Renewable Energy Laboratory grid planning and operations tools, analysis, and data to execute a price-taker model of an energy storage system for several 8760 h price series representative of current and future contiguous United States grid infrastructures with varying shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). We find that the total value of energy storage typically increases with VRE shares, but any increase in the relative value of longer storage durations over time depends on the region and grid mix. Some regions see incremental value increasing notably, up to 20–40 h in 2050, while others do not. The negative effect of lower roundtrip efficiency on value is also found to be scenario-dependent, with the energy value in higher VRE scenarios being less sensitive to roundtrip efficiency and more supportive of longer storage durations. Long-duration storage value and deployment potential are a function of evolving electricity sector infrastructure, markets, and policy, making it critical to consistently revisit potential long-duration storage contributions to the grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Electricity Bill Calculator (elecprice) v0.1.0

The Electricity Bill Calculator Library is a generic tool for manipulating the tariffs of electricity, with an emphasis on commercial Time-Of-Use (TOU) rates in the U.S. and residential Net Energy Metering tariffs in CA. Typical uses of the package are price signal generation and bill computation. To generate price signals from a specific tariff and given a time window, the tool creates a pandas dataframes containing the various components of the electricity charges, at each time step. This is particularly useful for Demand Response (DR) applications, such as price-based optimization of energy in buildings. The tool also computes bills given a building's power consumption and a specific tariff and returning the corresponding cost of electricity, as well as a breakdown per type of rate.

Prakash, Anand Krishnan↗

Enhanced deep neural networks with transfer learning for distribution LMP considering load and PV uncertainties

As the flexibility of generation and demand increases in distribution systems, the residential loads are emerging as a promising means to participate in demand response and the transactive energy market. Market pricing is an instrumental mechanism for the distribution system operator to exploit the full potential of the flexible resources. The distribution locational marginal price (DLMP) can be used to guide the residential load consumption. This type of market signal helps the distribution system operator to optimize the scheduling of all resources while satisfying related network constraints through a day-ahead market. However, solving the optimization problem for large-scale systems can be computationally expensive. To address the scalability and practicability limitations of the DLMP framework, a learning-based approach is proposed in this paper to complement the day-ahead distribution market framework. Here, the proposed approach combines long short-term memory and transfer learning to develop deep neural network that can capture the spatial–temporal correlation of the input data. The model can determine the optimal DLMP for each node in a distribution system without the system parameters required to formulate the optimization problem. Testing results on IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus systems show that the proposed approach can generate a comparable DLMP against the optimization solutions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On Harmonizing Today’s Regulated Tariffs and Future Dynamic Electricity Pricing

A novel method for harmonizing the advantages of dynamic retail electricity pricing with the protections of regulated electricity tariffs is discussed and demonstrated. The method socializes and protects customers from long-term locational price variability that is unfair to those customers who are, by no fault of their own, served at congested locations on a distribution system. However, the method preserves short-term (e.g., diurnal) price variability that might induce helpful, mitigative responses from retail electricity customers. Because the method causes actual price recovery to track a customer class’s approved, regulated price recovery, the method may remove regulators’ objections to dynamic electricity pricing and thereby hasten adoption of market-based retail electricity pricing and transactive energy systems.

Consumer protection, Demand response, Market resea↗

Consumer Purchasing Behavior and Usage of Lighting in the Residential Sector

We present the results of a 2019 online survey of 1,800 adults in the United States who recently purchased a light bulb to understand how consumers make decisions about purchasing light bulbs and how light bulbs are used in the residential sector. From our survey, we found that purchases of LED bulbs made up the largest percentage of sales by lighting technology and respondents generally had positive impressions of LEDs. We estimated the average daily hours of use for bulbs being purchased depending on bulb shape. We also provide an estimate for the lumen distribution of purchased light bulbs and the distribution of installation locations by bulb shape. We found that incandescent bulb purchasers were primarily replacing a failed incandescent bulb and these purchasers were less likely to have favorable impressions of LEDs. However, we found that the majority of participants replacing an incandescent bulb purchased either a CFL or LED. Using an adaptive conjoint analysis technique, we found that the five most important factors to consumers when choosing a light bulb are purchase price, bulb lifetime, energy cost savings relative to an incandescent bulb, light appearance, and energy savings relative to an incandescent bulb. The results of this study provide an in-depth look at the lighting market in 2019 and may provide a basis for developing models of the residential lighting market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cybersecurity Considerations for the Liquified Natural Gas Sector

Due to the highly volatile nature of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and the systems required for generation and safe containment, it is likely a targeted cyber-attack on LNG control and safety systems will have a significant economic impact on energy supplies and prices. Moreover, if the interconnected operational technology (OT) devices within LNG systems are exploited to malfunction, the repair and recertification process will almost certainly be longer than for natural gas (NG) systems.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Composition of interplanetary particles at energies from 0.1 to 150 MeV/nucleon, part B

During the Apollo 16 mission, a solar flare produced an enormous amount of low-energy nuclei, many orders of magnitude greater than the level inferred from studies of tracks in the window of the Apollo 12 spacecraft during a time when the sun was quiet. The differential energy spectrum of nuclei with Z less than or equal to 6 falls by seven orders of magnitude over the interval from 0.1 to 20 MeV/nucleon, then remains almost flat up to approximately 100 MeV/nucleon. The two parts correspond to contributions from the sun and from galactic cosmic rays. Any maximum in the spectrum occurs below the lowest energy studied.

Price, P. B.↗