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At least 217 records · Page 12

A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling the Breakup of the Space Launch System EM-1 Core Stage with an Integrated Blast and Fragment Catalogue

The Liquid Propellant Fragment Overpressure Acceleration Model (L-FOAM) is a tool developed by Bangham Engineering Incorporated (BEi) that produces a representative debris cloud from an exploding liquid-propellant launch vehicle. Here it is applied to the Core Stage (CS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS launch vehicle). A combination of Probability Density Functions (PDF) based on empirical data from rocket accidents and applicable tests, as well as SLS specific geometry are combined in a MATLAB script to create unique fragment catalogues each time L-FOAM is run-tailored for a Monte Carlo approach for risk analysis. By accelerating the debris catalogue with the BEi blast model for liquid hydrogen / liquid oxygen explosions, the result is a fully integrated code that models the destruction of the CS at a given point in its trajectory and generates hundreds of individual fragment catalogues with initial imparted velocities. The BEi blast model provides the blast size (radius) and strength (overpressure) as probabilities based on empirical data and anchored with analytical work. The coupling of the L-FOAM catalogue with the BEi blast model is validated with a simulation of the Project PYRO S-IV destruct test. When running a Monte Carlo simulation, L-FOAM can accelerate all catalogues with the same blast (mean blast, 2 σ blast, etc.), or vary the blast size and strength based on their respective probabilities. L-FOAM then propagates these fragments until impact with the earth. Results from L-FOAM include a description of each fragment (dimensions, weight, ballistic coefficient, type and initial location on the rocket), imparted velocity from the blast, and impact data depending on user desired application. LFOAM application is for both near-field (fragment impact to escaping crew capsule) and far-field (fragment ground impact footprint) safety considerations. The user is thus able to use statistics from a Monte Carlo set of L-FOAM catalogues to quantify risk for a multitude of potential CS destruct scenarios. Examples include the effect of warning time on the survivability of an escaping crew capsule or the maximum fragment velocities generated by the ignition of leaking propellants in internal cavities.

Richardson, Erin↗

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity. The first research area – meteoroid ablation mechanisms – has focused on performing novel high-enthalpy wind tunnel experiments on meteorites and meteorite analogs, and utilizing the resulting data to develop high-fidelity models for impactor mass loss at scale. These efforts have resulted in several insights. Of note, these data suggest a differential vaporization process where volatiles are liberated preferentially when the asteroidal material is subject to high heat, while refractory components remain in the molten layer on the surface. A numerical model has been developed which considers this phenomena, and its effect on the bulk impactors effective heat of ablation is examined. The second research thrust that is discussed is focused on accurate modeling of impactor radiation phenomena. While another submission to the conference will discuss the application of our approach to thermal ground damage modeling, here, we present an overview of our extensive efforts to utilize available ground- and space-based observations of large bolides (~1m diameter, and above) to inform and validate our detailed modeling approaches. These methods have been shown to accurately reconstruct the detailed spectra for the Benesov bolide, as well as approximate the burn footprint for the Tunguska event. Recent effort has focused on reconciling light curve data from multiple sources (all-sky camera networks, GLM, US government sensors), using our validated model, and providing a calibrated model for luminous efficiency which can then be utilized to infer impactor properties such as shape, mass, and composition. This work will be demonstrated through an exemplar case study focusing on a large bolide event with observational data (e.g. Chelyabinsk, Flensburg, etc.). Finally, our team’s assessment on the current maturity of atmospheric entry models, and priorities for future research will be provided.

ATAP↗

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity.

ATAP↗

Force Limited Random Vibration Test of TESS Camera Mass Model

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is a spaceborne instrument consisting of four wide field-of-view-CCD cameras dedicated to the discovery of exoplanets around the brightest stars. As part of the environmental testing campaign, force limiting was used to simulate a realistic random vibration launch environment. While the force limit vibration test method is a standard approach used at multiple institutions including Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), European Space Research and Technology Center (ESTEC), and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), it is still difficult to find an actual implementation process in the literature. This paper describes the step-by-step process on how the force limit method was developed and applied on the TESS camera mass model. The process description includes the design of special fixtures to mount the test article for properly installing force transducers, development of the force spectral density using the semi-empirical method, estimation of the fuzzy factor (C2) based on the mass ratio between the supporting structure and the test article, subsequent validating of the C2 factor during the vibration test, and calculation of the C.G. accelerations using the Root Mean Square (RMS) reaction force in the spectral domain and the peak reaction force in the time domain.

Karlicek, Alexandra↗

Models of Sector Flows Under Local, Regional and Airport Weather Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

Models of Sector Aircraft Counts in the Presence of Local, Regional and Airport Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

Examining the Responses of Radiation Use Efficiency to C02: A New Approach

Radiation use efficiency (RUE) has been a key parameter for developing simpler models of crop growth and yield. A great deal of effort has gone into measuring RUE in the field and in verifying its validity for predicting crop growth. However, a lack of data on responses of RUE to elevated C02 has resulted in the use of empirical relations that may lead to overestimates of crop yield to C02 enrichment. A new approach relating RUE to canopy quantum yield is presented that offers a more theoretical basis for estimating RUE responses to elevated C02.

Monje, Oscar↗

Accuracy Assessment of Global Internal-Tide Models Using Satellite Altimetry Models Using Satellite Altimetry

Altimeter measurements are corrected for several geophysical parameters in order to access ocean signals of interest, like mesoscale or sub-mesoscale variability. The ocean tide is one of the most critical corrections due to the amplitude of the tidal elevations and to the aliasing phenomena of high-frequency signals into the lower-frequency band, but the internal-tide signatures at the ocean surface are not yet corrected globally. Internal tides can have a signature of several centimeters at the surface with wavelengths of about 50–250 km for the first mode and even smaller scales for higher-order modes. The goals of the upcoming Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission and other high-resolution ocean measurements make the correction of these small-scale signals a challenge, as the correction of all tidal variability becomes mandatory to access accurate measurements of other oceanic signals. In this context, several scientific teams are working on the development of new internal-tide models, taking advantage of the very long altimeter time series now available, which represent an unprecedented and valuable global ocean database. The internal-tide models presented here focus on the coherent internal-tide signal and they are of three types: empirical models based upon analysis of existing altimeter missions, an assimilative model and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. A detailed comparison and validation of these internal-tide models is proposed using existing satellite altimeter databases. The analysis focuses on the four main tidal constituents: M2, K1, O1 and S2. The validation process is based on a statistical analysis of multi-mission altimetry including Jason-2 and Cryosphere Satellite-2 data. The results show a significant altimeter variance reduction when using internal-tide corrections in all ocean regions where internal tides are generating or propagating. A complementary spectral analysis also gives some estimation of the performance of each model as a function of wavelength and some insight into the residual non-stationary part of internal tides in the different regions of interest. This work led to the implementation of a new internal-tide correction (ZARON'one) in the next geophysical data records version-F (GDR-F) standards.

Loren Carrere↗

A New Method for Predicting Turbulent Flow Reattachment Location: Application of Stratford Criterion for Reattaching Flows

A new method for predicting turbulent flow reattachment location has been developed. The method predicts the reattachment location using the surface static pressure distribution and requires only a single empirical parameter. The method is based on the well-known Stratford’s flow separation criterion, which results from an approximate solution to the equations of motion within the boundary layer. Because of the large pressure rise, the original Stratford separation criterion is not valid for reattaching flows. In order to apply the Stratford criterion for reattaching flows, the reference location was moved to the pressure drop conditions instead of pressure rise conditions. In addition, the pressure distribution was scaled using a technique that was originally introduced for supersonic base flows. A new empirical parameter was also obtained for the modified Stratford criterion. The method has been tested for 30 different separated flow configurations from the literature. The variety of test cases include subsonic flows, transonic flows, 2D flows, and axisymmetric flows, with experimental as well as high resolution numerical simulation results. The flow reattachment predictions with the new method agree very well with the reported data. The error is less than 5% and typically about 2%. The new method is an extremely simple and a quick way of finding the reattachment location. Given the complexities of the existing experimental techniques for finding the reattachment location, the method easily and quickly provides the flow reattachment location, which could be used to estimate the physical extent of separation bubbles, as a performance index for flow control methods, or to assess the predictive capability of turbulence models.

Flow reattachment location↗

Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

Stability of erythrocyte suspensions layered on stationary and flowing liquids

The apparent stability of erythrocyte suspensions layered on stationary and flowing Ficoll solutions was studied considering the effects of particle concentration, type and size, and the different flow rates of the particle suspensions and chamber liquid. The data from the flowing system were empirically fitted and, when extrapolated to zero chamber liquid flow rate, gave values comparable to the data from the stationary system, thus confirming the validity of the data and our approach to obtain that data.

Omenyi, S. N.↗

Ballistic Impact Response of Kevlar 49 and Zylon under Conditions Representing Jet Engine Fan Containment

A ballistic impact test program was conducted to provide validation data for the development of numerical models of blade out events in fabric containment systems. The impact response of two different fiber materials - Kevlar 49 (E.I. DuPont Nemours and Company) and Zylon AS (Toyobo Co., Ltd.) was studied by firing metal projectiles into dry woven fabric specimens using a gas gun. The shape, mass, orientation and velocity of the projectile were varied and recorded. In most cases the tests were designed such that the projectile would perforate the specimen, allowing measurement of the energy absorbed by the fabric. The results for both Zylon and Kevlar presented here represent a useful set of data for the purposes of establishing and validating numerical models for predicting the response of fabrics under conditions simulating those of a jet engine blade release situation. In addition some useful empirical observations were made regarding the effects of projectile orientation and the relative performance of the different materials.

Pereira, J. Michael↗

FAA Development of Reliable Modeling Methodologies for Fan Blade Out Containment Analysis: Ballistic Impact Testing - Part 2

This report summarizes the ballistic impact testing that was conducted to provide validation data for the development of numerical models of blade out events in fabric containment systems. The ballistic impact response of two different fiber materials - Kevlar 49 (E.I. DuPont Nemours and Company) and Zylon AS (Toyobo Co., Ltd.) was studied by firing metal projectiles into dry woven fabric specimens using a gas gun. The shape, mass, orientation and velocity of the projectile were varied and recorded. In most cases the tests were designed such that the projectile would perforate the specimen, allowing measurement of the energy absorbed by the fabric. The results for both Zylon and Kevlar presented here represent a useful set of data for the purposes of establishing and validating numerical models for predicting the response of fabrics under conditions simulating those of a jet engine blade release situations. In addition some useful empirical observations were made regarding the effects of projectile orientation and the relative performance of the different materials.

Revilock, Duane M.↗

Environmental Loss Characterization of an Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC-E2) Insulation Package Using a Mock Heater Head

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two highefficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. While electrical power output can be precisely quantified, thermal power input to the Stirling cycle cannot be directly measured. In an effort to improve net heat input predictions, the Mock Heater Head was developed with the same relative thermal paths as a convertor using a conducting rod to represent the Stirling cycle and tested to provide a direct comparison to numerical and empirical models used to predict convertor net heat input. The Mock Heater Head also served as the pathfinder for a higher fidelity version of validation test hardware, known as the Thermal Standard. This paper describes how the Mock Heater Head was tested and utilized to validate a process for the Thermal Standard.

Schifer, Nicholas A.↗

Statistical Approaches for the Definition of Landslide Rainfall Thresholds and their Uncertainty Using Rain Gauge and Satellite Data

Models for forecasting rainfall-induced landslides are mostly based on the identification of empirical rainfall thresholds obtained exploiting rain gauge data. Despite their increased availability, satellite rainfall estimates are scarcely used for this purpose. Satellite data should be useful in ungauged and remote areas, or should provide a significant spatial and temporal reference in gauged areas. In this paper, the analysis of the reliability of rainfall thresholds based on rainfall remote sensed and rain gauge data for the prediction of landslide occurrence is carried out. To date, the estimation of the uncertainty associated with the empirical rainfall thresholds is mostly based on a bootstrap resampling of the rainfall duration and the cumulated event rainfall pairs (D,E) characterizing rainfall events responsible for past failures. This estimation does not consider the measurement uncertainty associated with D and E. In the paper, we propose (i) a new automated procedure to reconstruct ED conditions responsible for the landslide triggering and their uncertainties, and (ii) three new methods to identify rainfall threshold for the possible landslide occurrence, exploiting rain gauge and satellite data. In particular, the proposed methods are based on Least Square (LS), Quantile Regression (QR) and Nonlinear Least Square (NLS) statistical approaches. We applied the new procedure and methods to define empirical rainfall thresholds and their associated uncertainties in the Umbria region (central Italy) using both rain-gauge measurements and satellite estimates. We finally validated the thresholds and tested the effectiveness of the different threshold definition methods with independent landslide information. The NLS method among the others performed better in calculating thresholds in the full range of rainfall durations. We found that the thresholds obtained from satellite data are lower than those obtained from rain gauge measurements. This is in agreement with the literature, where satellite rainfall data underestimate the 'ground' rainfall registered by rain gauges.

landslide prediction↗

Integrated Oxygen Flow Meter/Heat Exchanger for Portable Life Support Systems

Space suits for future exploration missions will have multi-mission goals with new and challenging requirements for the portable life support system (PLSS). In particular, the space suit ventilation loop requires cooling and flow measurement components that must meet specifications that go well beyond the capabilities of the components used for the existing Extravehicular Mobility Unit. The flow meter must have high measurement accuracy over a wide flow range, compatibility with pure oxygen, low pressure losses, and very compact size. The heat exchanger that cools the ventilation loop must be built from materials that are compatible with the liquid cooling loop, and it must provide efficient gas cooling in a small package across conditions ranging from normal suit pressure to elevated pressure. This paper describes the development of a novel device that combines the flow measurement and cooling functions in a single, compact flow meter/heat exchanger (FMHX). We have developed design methods that enable us to assess trade-offs, optimize performance, and specify the design of an FMHX that meets the requirements and constraints for operation in future PLSSs. We used empirical design correlations combined with computational fluid dynamics analysis to design the FMHX design. Data from tests of a proof-of-concept FMHX validate the design methods and show that the device meets all design requirements. We used the results from these tests to refine the design parameters and predict performance of an optimized, prototype FMHX.

Izenson, Michael G.↗