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At least 217 records · Page 12

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Can we use antipredator behavior theory to predict wildlife responses to high-speed vehicles?

Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle scenario. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypotheses and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative predictions on escape distance when parameterized with empirical data from the literature, and (c) evaluating their sensitivity to vehicle approach speed using a simulation approach wherein we assessed model performance based on changes in effect size with variations in the slope of the flight initiation distance (FID) vs. approach speed relationship. The slope of the FID vs. approach speed relationship was then related back to three different behavioral rules animals may rely on to avoid approaching threats: the spatial, temporal, or delayed margin of safety. We used literature on birds for goals (b) and (c). Our review considered the following eight models: the economic escape model, Blumstein’s economic escape model, the optimal escape model, the perceptual limit hypothesis, the visual cue model, the flush early and avoid the rush (FEAR) hypothesis, the looming stimulus hypothesis, and the Bayesian model of escape behavior. We were able to generate quantitative predictions about escape distance with the last five models. However, we were only able to assess sensitivity to vehicle approach speed for the last three models. The FEAR hypothesis is most sensitive to high-speed vehicles when the species follows the spatial (FID remains constant as speed increases) and the temporal margin of safety (FID increases with an increase in speed) rules of escape. The looming stimulus effect hypothesis reached small to intermediate levels of sensitivity to high-speed vehicles when a species follows the delayed margin of safety (FID decreases with an increase in speed). The Bayesian optimal escape model reached intermediate levels of sensitivity to approach speed across all escape rules (spatial, temporal, delayed margins of safety) but only for larger (> 1 kg) species, but was not sensitive to speed for smaller species. Overall, no single antipredator behavior model could characterize all different types of escape responses relative to vehicle approach speed but some models showed some levels of sensitivity for certain rules of escape behavior. We derive some applied applications of our findings by suggesting the estimation of critical vehicle approach speeds for managing populations that are especially susceptible to road mortality. Overall, we recommend that new escape behavior models specifically tailored to high-speeds vehicles should be developed to better predict quantitatively the responses of animals to an increase in the frequency of cars, airplanes, drones, etc. they will face in the next decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FY2019 Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Annual Progress Report

EEMS Program activities during FY 2019 focused on analytical research to understand the impacts that new mobility technologies and services will have at the vehicle, traveler, and overall transportation system-level. This research included the development of vehicle and transportation system simulation models and tools to evaluate the complex interactions among the various actors within the mobility landscape, analysis of empirical data to characterize which solutions may provide the largest benefits, and development of new control systems and algorithms that use vehicle connectivity and automation to improve the performance and efficiency of individual vehicles as well as the overall traffic system. This document presents a brief overview of the EEMS Program and documents progress and results for projects within four of the five EEMS activity areas: (1) the SMART (Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation) Mobility Lab Consortium, (2) High Performance Computing and Big Data Solutions for Mobility Data, (3) Advanced R&D Projects conducted by industry and academia, and (4) Core Modeling, Simulation, and Evaluation, Similarly, the remaining EEMS activity area – (5) Living Labs (managed under VTO’s Technology Integration Program). Each of the individual progress reports provide a project overview and highlights of the technical results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Source Term Reduction for Advanced and Small Modular Boiling Water Reactors

The United States Department of Energy (US DOE) is currently supporting the development of various advanced and small modular reactor (SMR) designs. Several of these designs have commenced license application with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC). These reactors have improved safety features that may significantly reduce radiological source terms in the event of design and beyond-design basis accidents. Specifically, some reactors feature a smaller containment volume relative to the available fission product depositional surface area, which supports increased fission product retention in the containment vessel. Pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) with this feature include the integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR) and the BWRX-300 design by General Electric. A prior research program supported by the US DOE quantified the source term reduction associated with light water iPWRs and developed iPWR-specific theoretical models for fission product deposition rates. This program included a sequence of research projects that started with a feasibility study, development of theoretical models that predict higher deposition rates, and finally, development of empirical data for verification and validation of the theoretical models. The current project, which is a feasibility study, is the first step in a similar program to quantify the source term reduction associated with small and advanced light water BWRs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

AI to Predict Glass Compositions Satisfying Property and Cooling Rate Criteria

This project aimed to develop a predictive, artificial intelligence/machine learning-based model to identify glass compositions satisfying specified property requirements. Such a model would provide a systematic approach for narrowing down the nearly infinite range of possible compositions for glasses and minimize unnecessary experimental trial and error. A large empirical data set for training and testing the algorithm was obtained from the SciGlass database. It contains glass compositions and corresponding property data from a wide range of literature sources. However, the currently available form of this data, recently released under an open database license, is not conducive to easy querying and use. The data structure was deciphered and a customized parsing code developed to make this data more usable for the current and future work. Neural network models were developed and trained on viscosity data from the database and demonstrated potential for improving prediction accuracy over a traditional regression model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

FY2020 Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Annual Progress Report

EEMS Program activities during FY 2020 focused on analytical research and large-scale modeling and simulation to understand the impacts that new mobility technologies and services will have at the vehicle-, traveler-, and overall transportation system-level. This research included the development of a multi-fidelity, end-to-end transportation system models and tools to evaluate the complex interactions among the various actors within the mobility landscape, analysis of empirical data to characterize which solutions may provide the largest benefits, and development of new control systems and algorithms that use vehicle connectivity and automation to improve the performance and efficiency of individual vehicles as well as the overall traffic system. This document presents a brief overview of the EEMS Program and documents progress and results from projects within each of the EEMS activity areas. The Computational Modeling and Simulation key activity area summarizes work within the sub-areas of (1) the SMART (Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation) Mobility Lab Consortium, (2) Artificial Intelligence, High-Performance Computing, and Data Analytics, and (3) Core Simulation and Evaluation Tools. Additionally, the program’s advanced R&D projects are summarized within (4) the Connectivity and Automation Technology key activity area. Each of the individual progress reports provide a project overview and highlights of the technical results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Demonstration of NREL Modeling Capability to Design the Next Generation of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines with Stiesdal and Magellan Wind (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

This Technology Commercialization Fund (TCF) CRADA involved demonstration of NREL modeling capability using OpenFAST (formerly known as FAST) to design the next generation of floating offshore wind turbines (FOTW) with Stiesdal’s TetraSpar design. The objective of the project was to enable the design and optimization of next generation FOWT that show promise to make FOWT cost-competitive with other energy technologies by upgrading, verifying, and validating improvements to OpenFAST. This objective was achieved by (1) upgrading OpenFAST to compute floating substructure flexibility and member-level loads, which is critical to enable the design of floating substructures—especially newer designs that are streamlined, flexible, and cost-effective; (2) verifying the new OpenFAST capabilities through model-to-model comparisons and validating the capabilities through comparisons to empirical data generated with wave-tank testing, using TetraSpar data provided by Stiesdal; and (3) making available the upgraded OpenFAST tool to the wind energy community to enable next-generation floating wind designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Electric Vehicle and Infrastructure Systems Modeling in Washington D.C. and Baltimore

This report documents the Argonne-Exelon effort to develop and utilize an agent-based model (ATEAM) of charging demand and infrastructure expansion applicable to the Washington, DC–Baltimore, MD consolidated metropolitan area. This study extends the ATEAM model time horizon to 10 years (from 2020 to 2030), expands agent behavior modeling capabilities, incorporates more granular and extensive empirical data on charging behavior, and analyzes charging needs for a much larger population of PEVs, in keeping with regional goals for significant adoption of ZEVs. With given targets for annual BEV adoption, five scenarios were developed to examine public infrastructure needs and resulting charging load, considering different home charging availabilities, as well as different PEV consumer profiles and public charging infrastructure deployment strategies. Scenario results show that if new chargers (both L2 and DCFC) are spread more widely (as with ubiquitous deployment strategies), there will be less variation in the number of chargers added to each census tract in the study area. More importantly, widespread public charging infrastructure with ubiquitous deployment strategies reduces unmet charging demand and improves charging success, even with heavy reliance on public charging. About 80 percent of BEV drivers can charge on their first attempt in scenarios with ubiquitous deployment strategies. Moreover, widespread public charging infrastructure better meets the demand for more charging, and in return, increases BEV adoption. Low home charging availability produces higher charging loads in public locations, especially during the early morning (around 8:00 a.m.) and late afternoon (around 6:00 p.m.). The evening peak load indicates that drivers are taking advantage of public charging before heading home. Study results also indicate that even with 20 percent home charging availability in 2030, just 20 percent of drivers attempt to charge on a given day. With their relatively high electric range (200+ miles), the BEVs expected to be on the road in 2030 can handle daily commutes without re-charging for a couple of days.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind: Project Synthesis

The population of North Atlantic right whales is critically endangered and their habitat overlaps with offshore windfarm leases. It is therefore imperative that effective mitigation strategies be used to avoid impacts on right whales during the construction of offshore windfarms. The Department of Energy issued FOA Number DE-FOA-0001924 to encourage the development of technology that could monitor large exclusion zones for right whales in order to mitigate potential impact of construction noise on right whales. This report summarizes the past two years of the development and evaluation of the Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind (CABOW) project which aimed to develop technology to monitor large exclusion zones for North Atlantic right whales. Over the course of the project SMRU Consulting have implemented a rigorous design process including comparison of different approaches (e.g., single sensor vs multiple sensors), as well as consideration of placement and timing of acoustic monitoring. We have evaluated critical components of the CABOW system including, reliability, detection range, and bearing accuracy in areas adjacent to offshore windfarm leases in Maryland by conducting 3,536 playbacks of simulated right whale upcalls. The maximum call detection range was 7.5 km when noise was 99 dB re 1µPa rms (50-225 Hz), but this reduced to < 1 km when ambient noise levels were high. Our detection probability in the field was measured as a function of range as well as the source-to-noise level ratio allowing us to build a model to predict the probability of detection under various scenarios (sample size: 3,536 calls x 5 buoys = 17,680). The median bearing error was -0.25° but this is likely an underestimate of error due to experimental design. Using the published recall and precision of the two detectors we implemented in the CABOW system, we estimate that at a recall of 80%, our precision was > 80%, within the range of what we were aiming for in this project. To estimate our exclusion zone false negative and false positive rates, we built a simulation model using the empirical data from our field trial. We modelled three to nine CABOW units placed on the 10 km exclusion zone and estimated our false negative rate to be 1% or less (which was our project goal) and our false positive rate to be between seven and nine percent, slightly above our goal of 5%. However, we also modelled an equivalent PAM system that does not have bearing capabilities and found the false positive rates for that system to be six to eight times higher than the CABOW rate. This higher false positive rate of PAM systems with low spatial information could have significant cost repercussions for offshore wind developers by adding work shutdowns or delays without providing additional protection for right whales. The model we built allows us to explore the placement of PAM systems under various scenarios and will thus help facilitate planning of PAM mitigation systems to meet NOAA Incidental Harassment Authorizations for specific windfarms. We achieved an average system uptime of 98.3%, just below our goal of 99%. The issues that caused these short losses of data have been identified and fixed. Right whale detections and audio clips were typically transferred via radio from the buoys to the base station in two to four seconds. We therefore believe we have developed a highly robust real-time PAM system. Based on the above, we feel we have achieved the stated funding goal of developing a cost-effective and robust real-time PAM system that enables the monitoring of large exclusion zones for right whales during the constructions of offshore windfarms. This should lead to decreased costs and risks for the offshore wind sector while providing robust mitigation for right whales. It is important to state that PAM mitigation will need to be implemented with other mitigation strategies (e.g., visual observers) to provide a complete mitigation strategy to ensure that any effects on right whales from offshore windfarm construction is minimized.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Reliability for Backup Electric Power Systems

Hospitals, emergency services, military bases, ports, airports, industries, commercial facilities, and others rely on backup power systems to provide electricity for their critical loads during grid outages. The purpose of this report it to provide accurate reliability information on commonly deployed distributed energy resources (DERs) to improve quantitative estimates for the reliability of these backup power systems during a grid outage. A backup power system consists of DERs, an electric distribution system with its associated switches and other devices, and mechanisms to control and manage the flow of electricity. Too often, facilities and campuses fail to properly quantify the reliability of their backup power systems. DERs are assumed to be 100% reliable, with the only concern being the availability of fuel. Such assumptions can lead to gross errors in the backup system's reliability estimates, particularly for long-duration outages. This report provides a set of estimates for reliability of emergency diesel generators (EDGs), natural gas prime generators and combined heat and power (CHP) prime movers, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and Li-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS). The estimates are derived from empirical data when available and supplemented by modeling results when needed. These reliability estimates are for the DERs ability to provide power during a grid outage, ranging from an hour to 2 weeks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fluid dynamic simulation and analysis of water-cooling systems for the Electron-Ion Collider

The Electron-Ion Collider is the newest large-scale project at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The collider’s purpose is to provide further advancements in the knowledge of the universe’s origin by accelerating particles near the speed of light. Our project for this 3.8 km ring was to create a thermal hydraulic steady-state simulation design of the water-cooling system to be cost-effective and energy efficient, as envisioned by Charlie Foltz, the EIC Infrastructure Division Director. The system would include a supply and return header, which cools several thousand components of the ring. The water would then be returned and cooled down using a system of cooling towers and plate and frame heat exchangers. Due to the size of the system and the complexity of the network analysis, a fluid dynamic simulation software, AFT Fathom, was used. Since previous methods of maintaining systems relied on building upon smaller real-life models and implementing empirical data, this flow model was unique and first of a kind in the domain of accelerator design, construction and operation. Therefore, our hydraulic team piloted a new method to perform network analysis on a large scale cooling system. We successfully created several test scenarios for system behavior in a shorter time compared to the method of performing hand calculations. Cooling specifications for heat rejection, pressure drop, flow rate, and pipe sizing were changed based on the individual systems of the vacuum, radio frequency (RF), magnet and power supply, and cryogenics sections. Finally, we used DOE guidelines to perform life-cycle cost analysis with net present value and carbon saving analysis on the systems where pipe size could be optimized.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Comparison of Side-on Peak Overpressure Predictions and Measurements for Type IV Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel Catastrophic Failure

This development of empirical data to support realistic and science-based input to safety regulations and transportation standards is a critical need for the hazardous material (HM) transportation industry. Current regulations and standards are based on the TNT equivalency model. However, real world experience indicates that use of the TNT equivalency model to predict composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) potential energy release is unrealistically conservative. The purpose of this report is to characterize and quantify rupture events involving damaged COPV’s of the type used in HM transportation regulated by the Department of Transportation (DOT). This was accomplished using a series of five tests; 2 COPV tests for compressed natural gas (CNG), 2 COPV tests for hydrogen, and 1 COPV test for nitrogen. Measured overpressures from these tests were compared to predicted overpressures from a TNT equivalence model and blast curves. Comparison between the measurements and predictions shows that the predictions are generally conservative, and that the extent of conservatism is dominated by predictions of the chemical contribution to overpressure from fuel within the COPVs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantitative, trait-based microbial ecology to accurately model the impacts of nitrogen deposition on soil carbon cycling in the Anthropocene (Final Technical Report)

Atmospheric nitrogen pollution has altered fundamental soil processes, challenging our understanding of the extent to which soils will continue to sequester carbon and slow the pace of future environmental change. While most evidence shows that increases in soil nitrogen have enhanced carbon storage in temperate forests, it remains unclear whether these effects will persist as nitrogen pollution continues to decline. Moreover, there remains uncertainty as to why some forests gain more carbon in response to nitrogen pollution than others. At the heart of this knowledge gap is a failure to link nitrogen–induced shifts in microbial biodiversity with gains or losses in their functional ability to decompose, assimilate, and ultimately stabilize soil carbon. Given that this uncertainty impedes the ability of predictive models to project future soil carbon stocks, there is a critical need to determine how key microbial traits drive soil carbon responses to nitrogen pollution. As such the goals of this project were to: (1) Quantify variation in taxon–specific and community–level microbial traits across gradients in microbial community composition, mycorrhizal symbioses, and nitrogen availability. (2) Integrate empirical data into a novel predictive framework that enhances our ability to project the regional soil carbon consequences of historical nitrogen pollution in temperate forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Grid Value and Cost of Utility-Scale Wind and Solar: Potential Implications for Consumer Electricity Bills [Slides]

Wind and solar cost declines and wholesale power price fluctuations have once again brought the “hedge value” of renewable energy to front of mind. Meanwhile, recent research has found that cost savings are the most persuasive driver of broad support for renewable energy. Yet whether consumers directly benefit from the price hedge that wind and solar can provide depends on various factors, most notably the contractual and market structures under which these generators operate. Drawing upon a vast amount of plant-level empirical data, we quantify the net market value (“net value”) of wind and solar over time and explore various factors that determine the extent to which consumers can capture and benefit from that value. The focus is on elements that may directly impact consumer electricity bills.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Understanding and modeling current and future coastal wetland methane dynamics (Final Report)

The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic component of the Earth system that plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling. Due to its dynamic nature, the processes that regulate decomposition and methane (CH 4 ) emissions are of greater significance at the TAI than in upland systems. Despite this, we have limited mechanistic understanding of how climate stressors interact to regulate the electron acceptors and donors that determine decomposition pathways within TAIs, including the generation of hot spots and hot moments. Accurately modeling these processes is critical for incorporating the coastal TAI into Earth systems models, such as DOE’s E3SM. With previous DOE support, we adapted an aerobic terrestrial representation of decomposition using PFLOTRAN, a reactive flow and transport model, and added anerobic decomposition pathways, salinity, and oxygen (O 2 ) that fluctuates independently of water table level. However, because this model (PFLOTRAN TAI ) is based on decomposition rates and organic matter carbon to nitrogen ratios from terrestrial systems, its performance in TAI systems is currently limited by the lack of empirical data to properly parameterize variables. In addition, while PFLOTRAN TAI can simulate movement of O 2 into sediments, it is not currently capable of tracking the movement of CH 4 gas through plant tissues due to both current model structure and lack of available data. Our overall objective of the project was the increase our mechanistic understanding of CH 4 dynamics in response to environmental change, such that we can improve the representation of these dynamics in PFLOTRAN. We installed automated flux chambers in a new field-scale active soil warming experiment and set up marsh organs (mesocosms) to test effects of warming, flooding, and salinity. This resulted in a new dataset consisting of chamber-level CH 4 flux measurements across multiple sites, ecological conditions, and timeframes, as well as corresponding measurements on porewater chemistry, soil carbon quality, plant biomass, and redox reaction rates. Using these data, we improved PFLOTRAN TAI to more accurately model CH 4 dynamics and successfully tested our hypotheses. This grant contributed to the professional development of 3 postdocs, 4 undergraduate interns, 4 teacher interns, 17 technicians, and 15 participatory scientists. The automated chamber technology designed for this grant has also been shared with multiple new projects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adroit Materials Final Scientific/Technical Report kV-class GaN-based Junction Barrier Schottky diodes using ion implantation

The primary aim of this research was to develop GaN-based Junction Barrier Schottky (JBS) diodes using an innovative ion implantation process previously established in ARPA-E funded projects. The central focus of our proposed technology revolves around selective area p-type doping, accomplished through the implantation of Mg ions. This approach builds upon our successes in the ARPA-E PNDIODES program, advancing towards commercial device integration. Selective area p-doping plays a pivotal role in realizing the next generation of GaN-based power devices, capable of significantly reducing the carbon footprint in the United States by several million tons. While ion implantation is a well-established technique for achieving selective area doping in SiC and Si materials, its feasibility in GaN had not been demonstrated until now. To fabricate high voltage GaN JBS diodes, we initially created thick n-type drift layers with high carrier concentrations ranging from 5×1015 cm-3 to 2×1016 cm-3 and very high mobilities. Subsequently, Mg ions were selectively implanted to form p-type islands within the n-type drift layer. To reduce electric field crowding at the edge of the diode and to achieve high breakdown voltage, junction edge termination (JTE) and floating field rings (FFRs) were formed using Mg implantation. A high temperature, high-pressure post-implantation annealing process was carried out to activate the implanted Mg ions. As a result, we were able to demonstrate GaN JBS diodes with a breakdown voltage of 915 V and an on-resistance of 0.6 mΩ·cm2. These diodes exhibited a forward bias current density of 1 kA/cm2 at 1.5 V. Subsequently, we achieved GaN JBS diodes with a remarkable breakdown voltage of 1900 V and an on-resistance of 1.9 mΩ·cm2, capable of sustaining a forward bias current density of 0.5 kA/cm2 at 1.5 V. Importantly, the ON and OFF state performance of these GaN JBS diodes surpassed that of Si and SiC-based power diodes reported in existing literature. Lastly, we successfully grew 60 μm thick GaN:Si layers using HVPE with a carrier concentration of approximately 3 to 5×1015 cm-3. Based on simulation and empirical data these devices represent 5 kV GaN JBS power diodes, leveraging the developed processes in this project.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Post-DTL Beam Delivery

Ensuring that the beam delivered from the upgraded Front-End (FE) meets the Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) at each user facility is critical to the success of the LANSCE Accelerator Modernization Project (LAMP). For a high-intensity, multi-user facility like LANSCE, compliance with beam loss and radiation thresholds is as important as the charge delivered to each target. While early LAMPF/LANSCE operations relied on iterative tuning to minimize losses from beam halo and tail particles, the new FE may introduce different beam distributions and loss modes—making predictive modeling essential. To manage this, the F2E (Front-End to End) effort is developing detailed particle-tracking models that reflect realistic beamline conditions, including halo formation and expected diagnostic readings. These "snapshot" simulations aim to benchmark live machine performance at a given moment. This will help quantify how beam quality from the new FE will propagate downstream through the facility. Only by validating these models can we confidently assess and mitigate the potential impacts of the LAMP FE on beam delivery. Post-DTL, the beam splits to serve five major user facilities. Historically, low-energy beam transport has been modeled using TRACE, and higher-energy sections with TRANSPORT. These have now been unified into MAD-X format and validated with codes such as Elegant, pyOrbit, XSuite, Impact-Z, and HPSim. The primary focus now is on accurate modeling of full particle distributions (including beam halo) as they traverse the accelerator and beamlines to each experimental station. All models are at various stages of validation with empirical data.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

High Performance Solvent for NGCC Flue Gas CO 2 Capture (Final Technical Report)

Amine-based solvent absorption is the most mature and reliable technology for large scale CO 2 capture, dating back to the 1930s when monoethanolamine (MEA) was used to treat acid gases from oil refineries. However, while strategic advancements have optimized the CO2 capture process, the cost of capture remains high, where current estimates suggest that CO 2 capture costs are around $\$$72/tonne of CO 2 . To address this, solvent development and optimization have become a focus of current research. This project sought to develop a high-performance solvent to reduce the overall cost of CO 2 capture from NGCC flue gas. Here, solvent optimization focused on: (1) reducing the energy required for CO 2 desorption in a reboiler, (2) improving CO 2 absorption and desorption reaction kinetics, (3) improving solvent stability, and (4) reducing environmental impacts. Susteon has developed and evaluated a promoted solvent, Sustenol™, for NGCC flue gas CO 2 capture. The optimized Sustenol™ also shows a higher dynamic CO 2 absorption capacity of ~0.5 mol CO2 /mol amine compared to 0.25 mol CO2 /mol amine for 30 wt% MEA. Additionally, the solvent is oxidatively, thermally and hydrothermally stable, which leads to lower solvent loss and emissions. These advancements have resulted in a solvent regeneration energy of 2.16 GJ/tonne of CO 2 which is >30% lower than current state-of-the-art commercial and emerging solvents. Combined with empirical data from the bench and pilot scale testing, this preliminary TEA study indicated the cost of CO 2 capture by Sustenol™ for 97% CO 2 removal at $\$$54/tonne and for 90% removal at $\$$49/tonne, with a pathway to achieve $\$$45/tonne of CO 2 with continued process and solvent advancements. Susteon has developed a technology roadmap to reduce the cost of CO 2 capture to <$\$$45/tonne for NGCC flue gas. Susteon plans to derisk this technology for commercial deployment through comprehensive solvent degradation testing, long-term testing in a pilot plant at 5 tonne CO2 /day and demonstration scale testing at 100 tonne CO2 /day with NGCC flue gas and engineering design studies to qualify Sustenol™ as a drop-in replacement solvent.

03 NATURAL GAS↗