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At least 217 records · Page 12

Source attribution of near-surface ozone trends in the United States during 1995–2019

Emissions of ozone (O 3 ) precursors in the United States have decreased in recent decades, and near-surface O 3 concentrations showed a significant decrease in summer but an increase in winter. In this study, an O 3 source tagging technique is utilized in a chemistry–climate model to investigate the source contributions to O 3 mixing ratios in the US from various emitting sectors and regions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and reactive carbon species during 1995–2019. We show that domestic emission reductions from energy and surface transportation are primarily responsible for the decrease in summertime O 3 during 1995–2019. However, in winter, the emission control also weakens the NO x titration process, resulting in considerable increases in O 3 levels from natural sources. Additionally, increases in aviation and shipping emissions and transpacific transport of O 3 from Asia largely contribute to the winter O 3 increase. We also found that changes in large-scale circulation favoring O 3 transport from the upper atmosphere and foreign transport from Asia also explain 15 % of the increase in the US near-surface O 3 levels in winter.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States

Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving future travel demand projections: a pathway with an open science interdisciplinary approach

Transport accounts for 24% of global CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels. Governments face challenges in developing feasible and equitable mitigation strategies to reduce energy consumption and manage the transition to low-carbon transport systems. To meet the local and global transport emission reduction targets, policymakers need more realistic/sophisticated future projections of transport demand to better understand the speed and depth of the actions required to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we argue that the lack of access to high-quality data on the current and historical travel demand and interdisciplinary research hinders transport planning and sustainable transitions toward low-carbon transport futures. We call for a greater interdisciplinary collaboration agenda across open data, data science, behaviour modelling, and policy analysis. These advancemets can reduce some of the major uncertainties and contribute to evidence-based solutions toward improving the sustainability performance of future transport systems. The paper also points to some needed efforts and directions to provide robust insights to policymakers. We provide examples of how these efforts could benefit from the International Transport Energy Modeling Open Data project and open science interdisciplinary collaborations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Autonomous Energy Management Software System for Small Commercial Buildings in Support of Decarbonization (Abstract)

The primary goal for the project is to develop and validate an autonomous energy management software (AEMS) system that will continuously optimize small commercial building operations by minimizing energy consumption and cost, providing a solution for maximizing decarbonization benefits from electrification of buildings. The work will leverage vast experience of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) research and development staff who have over two decades of experience in developing and successfully transferring software technologies to the private sector. This solution will be jointly developed with Intellimation LLC who plans to use it to scale their building energy efficiency offering. The project plan will include collaboratively working with Intellimation to package a set of solutions into the AEMS system, validate and demonstrate their capability, and value proposition through field demonstrations. If the deployment of the AEMS system optimizes RTUs’ set points, schedules, setbacks and optimal start and results in energy consumption reduction of 20%, the technical potential savings is approximately 675 trillion Btus of site energy savings and 2,000 trillion Btus of source energy. It will also result in carbon reductions of approximately 2.4 MMTCO2 and contribute to the climate change mitigation plans of many cities and states across the United States. Additional cost savings and emissions reduction are possible from management of peak electricity demand. The primary outcome will be an AEMS system that can be deployed at scale on small commercial buildings to improve operating efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ducted Fuel Injection and Cooled Spray Technologies for Particulate Control in Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines

Heavy-Duty diesel engine manufacturers are continuously in pursuit of simple and low-cost technologies that can reduce emissions. Ducted fuel injection (DFI) and Cooled Spray (CS) technologies are two technologies that continue to show promise for significant particulate emissions reductions. These technologies represent a breakthrough in diesel engine combustion from the potential of nearly sootless diesel combustion. This can provide a significant decrease in harmful PM emissions and may enable further system optimization for reduced NOx emissions and increased efficiency. Combustion vessel experiments and engine demonstrations at Sandia, together with the large bore engine tests performed by Wabtec show that this technology may be applicable to heavy duty diesel engines across a wide range of engine sizes and speeds representing the majority of off-road diesel engines. However, very little is known about the ideal geometry, scaling properties or effectiveness of these technologies over the engine operating map. This project will address those uncertainties through a series of experiments performed in an optical and a metal single-cylinder engine.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Effect of Urban Heat Island and Global Warming Countermeasures on Heat Release and Carbon Dioxide Emissions from a Detached House

Urban air temperature rises induced by the urban heat island (UHIE) effect or by global warming (GW) can be beneficial in winter but detrimental in summer. The SCIENCE-Outdoor model was used to simulate changes to sensible heat release and CO 2 emissions from buildings yielded by four UHIE countermeasures and five GW countermeasures. This model can evaluate the thermal condition of building envelope surfaces, both inside and outside. The results showed that water-consuming UHIE countermeasures such as evaporative space cooling and roof water showering provided positive effects (decreasing sensible heat release and CO 2 emissions related to space conditioning) in summer. Additionally, they had no negative (unwanted cooling) effects in winter since they can be turned off in the heating season. Roof greening can provide the greatest space- conditioning CO 2 emissions reductions among four UHIE countermeasures, and it reduces the amount of heat release slightly in the heating season. Since the effect on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by UHIE countermeasures is not very significant, it is desirable to introduce GW countermeasures in order to reduce CO 2 emissions. The significance of this study is that it constructed the new simulation model SCIENCE-Outdoor and applied it to show the influence of countermeasures upon both heat release and CO 2 emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive Life Cycle Analysis of Methanol Production and Methanol-to-Diesel Conversion

Methanol is a strategic chemical and intermediate in the manufacture of synthetic diesel, due to its versatility, diesel’s compatibility with existing infrastructure, and their role in industrial and transport applications. Conventional production methods for methanol, primarily steam methane reforming (SMR), rely on natural gas and are subject to the price variability due to market conditions and geopolitical events. They are also associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Methanol and synthetic diesel production could be integrated with nuclear energy to stabilize fuel prices and insulate pricing from outside geopolitical events due to the relative stability of nuclear fuel as compared to natural gas. This could lead to increased transportation fuel security, reliability and resilience. An added benefit is the abatement of emissions when substituting nuclear energy for conventional energy from natural gas. This report presents a comprehensive life cycle analysis(LCA) framework which was developed to evaluate the GHG emissions reduction potential associated with nuclear integrated methanol production, methanol-to-diesel upgrading, and end-use combustion. Gate-to-gate methanol production and cradle-to-grave emissions were evaluated in, starting with a business-as-usual (BAU) SMR-based methanol plant, and then considering stepwise nuclear integration. Methanol-to-diesel (MTD) conversion was evaluated accounting for nuclear energy integration and hydrogen production via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) using electricity either from the grid or from a dedicated nuclear power system. This multi-step process diverts stable and reliable nuclear energy into the transportation sector by upgrading low energy dense natural gas into liquid fuels fully compatible with existing infrastructure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Rapid increase in tropospheric ozone over Southeast Asia attributed to changes in precursor emission source regions and sectors

Observations indicate that tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) concentrations over Southeast Asia have been increasing rapidly since the 1990s. Here, we quantify source contributions from geographical regions and emission sectors of the two distinct types of O 3 precursors, i.e., nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), to the increase in tropospheric O 3 in Southeast Asia during 1990–2019 using an O 3 source tagging technique implemented in a global chemistry-climate model. In this work, the results show that although local anthropogenic emission of NO x in Southeast Asia only contributes 18% of the annual averaged near-surface O 3 concentration, the increase in local NO x emission dominates the increasing trend of O 3 concentration in Southeast Asia, accounting for 107% of the regional averaged trend of 1.07 ppb decade -1 . Increases in NO x emissions from East Asia and South Asia explain 29% of the increasing trend, but 9% is offset by the emission reduction in North America. Ground transportation is responsible for 79% of the rapid O 3 increase, followed by 39% contribution from international shipping. Because an increase in anthropogenic NO x emissions enhances the O 3 production efficiency by VOCs, the increase in near-surface O 3 concentrations in Southeast Asia is thereby largely contributed by methane and biogenic VOCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental investigation of air-fuel equivalence ratio effects on advanced dual-fuel ammonia/diesel combustion on a single-cylinder medium-duty diesel engine at high load

Ammonia (NH 3 ) has garnered significant interest as an alternative fuel for meeting international emissions reduction mandates in sectors with high weight and distance requirements, such as shipping. Technical barriers and unanswered questions remain on the combustion strategies that can maximize ammonia utilization and minimize emissions. Prior research studies at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory have shown strong performance with NH 3 under dual-fuel mode using conventional diesel combustion (CDC) manifold air pressure settings. Diesel airflow was initially used to simplify retrofitting (no turbocharger modification), which resulted in air-fuel equivalence ratios (λ) greater than 1.5. To characterize potential improvements in dual-fuel NH 3 combustion performance at richer in-cylinder conditions, a global λ sweep compared the use of early (E-pilot) and late (L-pilot) single diesel injections. The experiments were conducted at 1200 RPM and 12.8 ± 0.2 bar (75 % load), and λ was varied by decreasing the commanded air flow to the engine at greater than 90 % ammonia energy substitution level. A diesel injection timing sweep was conducted for both the injection strategies at fixed λ, and the timing with the lowest engine-out N 2 O emissions was identified. The results indicated an optimal balance between CO 2,eq and thermal efficiency benefits both E-pilot and l-pilot injection strategy cases compared with CDC at a λ of 1.4. In conclusion, the indicated nitrogen-based emissions exhibited a strong correlation to the ratio of CA5–50 and ignition delay for l-pilot, but no apparent trend emerged for the E-pilot injection strategy at the tested boundary conditions.

Ammonia↗

Getting lost tracking the carbon footprint of hydropower

In the transition to low-carbon electricity, well-quantified estimates of carbon dynamics are needed to ensure that emissions reduction targets are achieved. Here we review the state of the science on carbon accounting for hydropower reservoirs and identify limitations and future solutions. Nearly all research on reservoir greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions has focused on individual reservoirs in isolation without considering their position in a freshwater network draining organic matter from upstream watersheds or the coordinated operation of reservoir cascades. Second, carbon inventories have extrapolated from a small, non-probabilistic sample of highly variable measurements of GHG emissions to unsampled reservoirs. A stronger statistical foundation is needed to estimate a global inventory and its uncertainty. Third, attribution to hydropower is based on ranks assigned to reservoir purpose. Instead, the physical influence of hydropower on carbon dynamics could be directly measured. Fourth, current carbon-accounting practices neglect time. A time-varying approach would quantify variation in emissions for electricity portfolios from changes in the fuel mix at different times and account for ancillary services, i.e., the ability to support the grid when variable renewables are not available without using natural gas. Reservoirs also sequester a significant portion of inflowing carbon in sediments and slow the carbon cycle by delaying the return of carbon to the atmosphere for decades to centuries. Together, these refinements would help to illuminate pathways toward meeting energy demand with the longest-possible delay in returning carbon to the atmosphere and without adding ancient sources to the pool of carbon cycling through aquatic ecosystems.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

The impact of fuel and injection strategy on combustion characteristics, emissions and efficiency in gasoline compression ignition operation

Gasoline compression ignition in diesel engines has been proposed in order to meet increasingly stringent emission regulations without sacrificing efficiency. In this study, a six-cylinder heavy-duty diesel engine was operated in a mixing controlled gasoline compression ignition mode to investigate the influence of fuels and injection strategies on the combustion characteristics, emissions, and thermal efficiencies. Fuels, including ethanol (E), isobutanol (IB), and diisobutylene (DIB), were blended with a gasoline fuel to form E10, E30, IB30, and DIB30 based on volumetric fraction. These four blends along with gasoline formed the five test fuels. With these fuels, three injections strategies were investigated, including late pilot injection, early pilot injection, and port fuel injection/direct injection. The impact of moderate exhaust gas recirculation on nitrogen oxides and soot emissions was examined to determine the most promising fuel/injection strategy for emissions reduction. In addition, first and second law analyses were performed to provide insights into the efficiency, loss, and exergy destruction of the various gasoline fuel blends at low and medium load conditions. Overall, the emission output, thermal efficiency, and combustion performances of the five fuels were found to be similar and their differences are modest under most test conditions. E30 with the port/direct fuel injection strategy obtained the peak brake thermal efficiency (46.9%) and gross indicated thermal efficiency (52.2%) at 14 bar. At 7 bar, the peak brake thermal efficiency (44.2%) and gross indicated thermal efficiency (52.5%) also belonged to E30 with the late pilot injection strategy. The second law analysis revealed that exergy destruction was mostly influenced by the fuel type and not by the injection strategy for the 14 bar operating conditions. However, the opposite trend was observed for the 7 bar case. In addition, port fuel injection in combination with oxygenated fuel blends was found to be helpful to suppress soot emissions for operation with exhaust gas recirculation.

co-optima fuels↗

Near and long-term perspectives on strategies to decarbonize China's heavy-duty trucks through 2050

China needs to drastically reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), a key emitter in the growing transport sector, in order to address energy security concerns and meet its climate targets. We address existing research gaps by modeling feasibility, applicability, and energy and emissions impacts of multiple decarbonization strategies at different points in time. China still relies heavily on coal power, so impacts of new HDT technologies depend on the timing of their introduction relative to progress toward non-fossil power. We use a bottom-up model to simulate HDT energy consumption and CO 2 emissions through 2050. Results show that beginning to deploy battery electric and fuel-cell HDTs as early as 2020 and 2035, respectively, could achieve significant and the largest CO 2 emissions reduction by 2050 with a decarbonized power sector. However, viable near-term strategies-improving efficiency and logistics, switching to liquefied natural gas-could halve HDTs' current diesel consumption and CO 2 emissions by 2050. Our results underscore the need for a mix of near- and long-term policy and technology options to decarbonize China's HDTs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Getting to Zero—and Beyond: California’s aspiration to become the first carbon-negative state appears to be achievable and affordable.

As a response to mounting concerns about the consequences of unabated climate change, California established in 2018 an aspirational goal of achieving a completely carbon-neutral economy by 2045, and becoming carbon negative after that. The state has long championed climate-friendly policies such as using energy more efficiently, generating power from renewable sources, and putting cleaner cars on the road, among other emissions-reduction strategies. Unfortunately, California’s own evaluations indicate that even when these are successful—after intensive electrification of the economy and a drastic shift away from fossil fuels—there will remain substantial greenhouse gas emissions. The residuals come from widespread small sources that are hard to control, and from larger sources that cannot be controlled in time.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO 2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO 2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures.

climate-change mitigation↗

Comparative life cycle assessment of various hydrogen pathways for cleaner methanol synthesis

This study evaluates the potential environmental impacts of e-methanol production using hydrogen from green, yellow, and blue sources, including Gas Switching Reforming for high purity hydrogen production with carbon capture (GSR-H 2 ), and compares their performance across current and renewable energy scenarios. Using a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA), the study quantifies impacts across seven TRACI categories. Global warming potential (GWP) ranged from 0.28 kg CO 2 eq/kg MeOH for green hydrogen with renewables to 2.55 kg CO 2 eq/kg MeOH for SMR-CC under grid power. Among the scenarios, renewable electrolysis achieves the lowest GWP, while GSR-H 2 under renewable power offered the best balance of emissions reductions and resource efficiency among the fossil-based routes, offering a viable transitional solution in regions dependent on natural gas infrastructure. The study reveals GSR-H 2 's potential as an alternative to conventional steam methane reforming with carbon capture (SMR-CC), showing its advantages in carbon capture efficiency and reduced life cycle emissions as well as significantly lower water consumption. GSR-H 2 , when powered by renewables, consumed only 1.41 L of water per kg MeOH, an 82% reduction compared to grid-powered electrolysis, highlighting its potential in water-scarce regions. This study is the first to evaluate GSR-H 2 as a hydrogen source for e-methanol, providing new evidence for its role as a cleaner, scalable transitional solution aligned with cleaner production principles.

08 HYDROGEN↗

U.S. Department of Energy’s Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap

The science is clear that significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions are needed to moderate the severe impacts of ongoing climate change. Bold action is needed, and the Biden Administration has set goals of 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. The U.S. Long-Term Strategy (LTS) presents multiple pathways to a net-zero economy by no later than 2050. Addressing environmental justice and energy equity will be integral to meeting these climate goals. The United States’ overall industrial decarbonization strategy will support the Biden Administration’s Justice40 Initiative, which pledges that at least 40% of overall benefits from federal investments in climate and clean energy will be delivered to disadvantaged communities. The U.S. net-zero GHG 2050 goal, while ambitious, is achievable and will provide important benefits for all Americans in terms of public health, economic growth, reduced conflict from climate-related disasters, and quality of life. While this roadmap focuses on GHG emissions, other pollutant emissions will also need to be addressed as industry decarbonizes. Developing new technologies to reduce GHG emissions is an important opportunity to address other environmental issues and inequities. DOE is currently focusing on energy and environmental justice in complementary programs and initiatives. The U.S. industrial sector is considered a “difficult-to-decarbonize” sector of the energy economy, in part because of the diversity of energy inputs that feed into a heterogenous array of industrial processes and operations. In 2020, the industrial sector accounted for 33% of the nation’s primary energy use and 30% of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Power sector impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

Abstract The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector. Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO 2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average). Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗