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At least 217 records · Page 12

China's Contribution to Arctic Black Carbon Declined From 2009 to 2022

Black carbon (BC) aerosol is an important driver of Arctic warming, and China used to be a major contributor to the Arctic BC burden through long-range atmospheric transport. Here we show that China's contribution declined significantly from 2009 to 2022, primarily due to reductions in domestic BC emissions following the implementation of clean air policies. Global chemistry-transport model simulations indicate a relative decline of ∼3% yr −1 ( p < 0.05) in China's Arctic BC contribution, exceeding the decrease rate in the underlying emission inventory. Sensitivity simulations further suggest that climate change-induced shifts in atmospheric transport may have amplified this decline. Observations of aerosol absorption coefficients (σ ap ) at Arctic background observatories revealed steeper declines in σ ap when modeled China-to-total BC ratios were higher. Moreover, σ ap correlated positively with modeled BC from China, with stronger relationships as the modeled China-to-total BC ratios increased. Together, these results provide robust evidence that China's emission reductions have diminished its role in Arctic BC, contributing an estimated 0.02 W m −2 decrease in the direct radiative effect during the Arctic haze season.

GEOS-chem model↗

Carbon Dioxide Utilization Life Cycle Analysis Guidance for the U.S. DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (Version 2.0)

Capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and placing it in permanent storage in geologic formations is an option for reducing CO 2 emissions, but it may not be a viable one for all CO 2 emitters. For some, the added cost of capture may be too high to implement, or the geology near the source may not be suitable for storage. In these circumstances, other options will be needed. Carbon use and reuse, or CO 2 utilization (CO2U), is an alternative approach that seeks beneficial uses for captured CO 2 , such as using it as a feedstock in the production of fuels, chemicals, and building materials. These uses would give CO 2 value that could be used by suppliers (emitters) to offset capture costs. One of the principal features and challenges associated with CO2U is that the products derived from CO 2 must have lower carbon footprints than their conventional counterparts. Previous assessments of CO2U alternatives have focused on the carbon content of utilization products as an indicator of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions reduction potential. However, embodied emissions are—at best—only weakly correlated with the amount of carbon contained in any physical product. Therefore, the most attractive CO2U options will both displace the carbon in an existing product and improve the overall carbon efficiency of the manufacturing process. Research to overcome barriers will include identifying existing co-feeds and available low-carbon energy sources to enable the conversion of CO 2 to value-added products under favorable processing conditions. New discoveries in the fields of nano- and bio-technology will be applied to efficiently utilize CO 2 in new applications. Development of advanced materials and processes, integrating CO 2 capture with utilization processes (e.g., algae), exploring a diverse slate of products from CO 2 to effectively offset capture costs and developing processes based on waste energy are means to overcome these barriers. The research will lead to the development of advanced catalysts, materials, and equipment that can be used to convert CO 2 into useful products. The result will be multiple flexible and adaptable technology platforms that can be used to produce suites of products spanning multiple utilization pathways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy and economic impacts of U.S. federal energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2024

This paper presents estimates of the key impacts of U.S. national energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2024. The standards for consumer products, commercial and industrial equipment, lighting products, and plumbing products include those set by legislation as well as standards adopted by the Department of Energy (DOE) through rulemaking. In 2024 alone, these standards are estimated to have saved an estimated 6.0 quads of primary energy, which is equivalent to 6.5% of total U.S. energy consumption, and 1.7 trillion gallons of water, which is equivalent to approximately 12% of the annual water withdrawals for public supply in the U.S in 2015. The estimated reduction in CO 2 emissions associated with the standards in 2024 was 270 million metric tons, which is equivalent to 5.6% of total annual U.S. CO 2 emissions from energy consumption. The annual savings in operating costs for households and businesses totaled $\$$105 billion, and the average household saved $\$$576 in operating costs as a result of standards on residential appliances and plumbing products. The estimated cumulative past and future energy and water savings from these standards amount to 307 quads of energy and almost 53 trillion gallons of water. The estimated cumulative CO 2 emissions reduction from the standards come to 10.3 billion metric tons. Accounting for the increased upfront costs of more-efficient products and the energy and water cost savings over the products’ lifetime, the standards have a cumulative net present value of benefit of $\$$3.2 trillion using 3 percent discount rate and $\$$3.5 trillion using 7 percent discount rate when discounting past and future benefits to 2024.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Long-Term Scenarios of Transportation Decarbonization

Achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 requires aggressive curbing of transportation emissions, currently the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the fastest growing source of emissions in many countries. Transportation, a heterogeneous sector with many different passenger and freight travel modes and applications, will require a portfolio of solutions to decarbonize. To inform how to achieve significant emissions reductions in U.S. passenger and freight mobility, researchers used the Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model to explore many transformation pathways under expert-informed bounding ranges of assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancements, and policies. Researchers performed more than 2,000 simulations to explore possible transformation pathways and found that a combination of technological, behavioral, and policy strategies enables a staggering 89% reduction in transportation GHG emissions by 2050. Key is the rapid adoption of zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs) for all on-road passenger and freight applications, alongside a simultaneous decarbonization of electricity (supported by managed charging and proper planning). Managing travel demand growth can ease the transition by reducing the requisite amount of clean electricity and sustainable fuels supply.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Integrated system to reduce emissions from natural gas-fired reciprocating engines

Natural gas-fired reciprocating engines (NGFRE), which are naturally aspirated are used in the oil and gas industry for the production, storage, processing, and transmission of natural gas extracted from wells. These stationary, lean-burn engines exhibit increased combustion instability and higher emissions of methane (CH 4 ) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) at lower loads, resulting in restrictions on the operational envelope of such engines. Here, in this paper, some of the emission reduction technologies for NGFREs are reviewed. Also, an experimental investigation of an integrated system to reduce emissions and improve the combustion performance of an NGFRE is presented. The integrated system consists of an air management package and integrated sensors including an amperometric NOx/O 2 sensor, exhaust temperature thermocouple, pressure transducers and vibration sensors. Experiments were carried out using natural gas and natural gas/propane blends at different load steps, and combustion performance, as well as emissions, were analyzed. For natural gas fuel, the results show that the standard deviation of peak pressure and indicated thermal efficiency (ITE) improved by 67.4 psi and 4.2% respectively, at 40% load. Similarly, CH 4 and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) emissions reduced considerably by 84% and 63% respectively. However, CO emissions increased from 8 ppm to 152 ppm. At 60% load, the ITE improved by 3.8% and the CH 4 emissions were reduced by 68%. The reduction in VOCs emissions was 63% at 40% load and 69% at 60% load. The findings of this research provide evidence of the effectiveness of the integrated air management system in improving the sustainability of NGFREs. In general, this technology can be implemented on air-assisted combustion applications to improve combustion performance and, consequently, reduce emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA general aviation technology programs

This paper describes the status of the current NASA programs that are aimed at providing new technology for aircraft designs that will improve both safety and utility while reducing the environmental impact of general aviation to acceptable levels. Safety related areas that are discussed include the full scale crash test program and the stall/spin research effort. Among the programs addressing increased utility and performance, advanced airfoil developments and engine cooling drag reduction are discussed. Noise and emission reduction is a subject that is receiving significant emphasis within the NASA programs. Also included is a description of the current status of the hydrogen injection concept as a means of both lowering emissions and increasing fuel economy.

Winblade, R. L.↗

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality

Decisions about solar geoengineering (SG) entail risk–risk tradeoffs between the direct risks of SG and SG’s ability to reduce climate risks. Quantitative comparisons between these risks are needed to inform public policy. We evaluate idealized SG’s effectiveness in reducing deaths from warming using two climate models and an econometric analysis of temperature-attributable mortality. We find SG’s impact on temperature-attributable mortality is uneven with decreases for hotter, poorer regions and increases in cooler, richer regions. Relative to no SG, global mortality is reduced by over 400,000 deaths annually [90% CI: (−1.2 million,2.7 million)] for cooling of 1 °C from 2.5 °C above preindustrial in 2080. We find no evidence that mortality reduction achieved by SG is smaller than the reduction from equivalent cooling by emissions reductions. Combining our estimates with existing estimates of sulphate aerosol injection direct mortality risk from air quality and UV-attributable cancer enables the first quantitative risk-risk comparison of SG. We estimate with 61% probability that the mortality benefits of cooling outweigh these direct SG risks. We find the benefits outweigh these risks by 13 times for our central estimates, or 4 deaths per 100,000 per 1 °C per year [90% CI: (−11,23)]. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of the risk–risk tradeoffs around SG, yet by comparing some of the most consequential impacts on human welfare it is a useful first step. While these findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions, considerable uncertainties remain and require further investigation.

Harding, Anthony (ORCID:0000000262898253)↗

Development and Commercialization of Heavy-Duty Battery Electric Trucks Under Diverse Climate Conditions (DTNA EMG Innovation eCascadia 2.0 Final Technical Report)

During this project DTNA advanced heavy-duty transportation technologies to produce the eCascadia 2.0, a fully commercialized Class 7/8 electric tractor with the range and durability to meet the needs of 70% of freight movement in the United States. The eCascadia2.0 provides flexibility, operational performance, efficiency, and maintenance cost savings to the end user. The most direct outcome of this project is a commercially viable zero-emission heavy duty option with a 250-mile daily range and sufficient payload for regional haul duty cycles. The larger outcome is an acceleration of the market transformation away from petroleum-based fuels. DTNA’s comprehensive sales team, dealer network, customer network and maintenance and support teams will ensure that this is not a standalone zero-emission truck, but rather one that can be produced, marketed, and operated at scale to realize vast greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions reductions, while also bringing zero emission vehicles closer to cost parity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Modeling and Policy Pathways to Decarbonize South Asia’s Industrial Sector

The industrial sector is responsible for one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, and industrial decarbonization will be an essential component of limiting emissions and mitigating climate change (Rissman et al., 2020). This holds true for South Asian countries as they work toward their stated commitments to reducing emissions in the coming years. India has pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 33–35% by 2030 (Government of India, 2016) and announced at COP26 a target of reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2070, a goal that will require rapid decarbonization of energy-intensive industries (WEF, 2021). Bangladesh’s Nationally Determined Contributions include a commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 6.73% to 15.12% by 2030 (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, 2021). While these Nationally Determined Contributions do not explicitly target emissions reductions in industry, Bangladesh’s Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EE&C) Master Plan highlights industry as an important sector for EE&C (Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority, 2015). Sri Lanka has pledged carbon neutrality by 2050, including a reduction in industrial greenhouse gas emissions (Ministry of Environment, 2021). Nepal’s commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 includes plans to establish guidelines and technology transitions facilitating industrial decarbonization (Government of Nepal, 2020).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Technology Benefits

An assessment was recently performed by NASA s Inter-Center Systems Analysis Team to quantify the potential emission reduction benefits from technologies being developed under UEET. The CO2 and LTO NO, reductions were estimated for 4 vehicles: a 50-passenger regional jet, a twin-engine, long-range subsonic transport, a high-speed (Mach 2.4) civil transport and a supersonic (Mach 2) business jet. The results of the assessment confirm that the current portfolio of technologies within the UEET program provides an opportunity for substantial reductions in CO2 and NO, emissions.

Haller, William↗

The Sustainability Index: a new tool to breed for reduced greenhouse-gas emissions intensity in Australian dairy cattle

Context The Australian dairy industry has a target to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions intensity by 30% between 2015 and 2030. At the animal level, apart from nutritional modifications and other management practices, selecting animals that emit less GHG can be a cost-effective and long-term strategy. Given the world’s demand for protein is increasing, selecting for animals with lower GHG emissions per unit of production, i.e. emissions intensity, is a realistic approach that addresses the key issue of emissions reduction while maintaining farm productivity. Aim To develop a selection index for Australian dairy cattle to breed for reduced emissions intensity. Methods The Sustainability Index was built based on the existing Balanced Performance Index (BPI) but placed greater emphasis on production, survival, health and feed efficiency. Key results In August 2022, DataGene released the Sustainability Index that can be used by dairy farmers to select animals with lower environmental footprints. Compared with BPI, the weights for protein, fat, survival, mastitis resistance and feed efficiency increased by 2.6-, 1.4-, 2.8-, 1.3- and 3.8-fold respectively. It is expected that with the use of the Sustainability Index, emissions intensity will be reduced by 7.64%, 8.96% and 5.52% respectively in Holstein, Jersey and Red breeds by 2050, compared with the 2015 level. The corresponding values when selecting for BPI were 6.34%, 7.91% and 5.23% respectively. However, the trade-off in BPI when using the Sustainability Index will be AUD0.79, AUD0.83, AUD0.22 per cow per year for Holstein, Jersey and Red breeds respectively. Conclusions The current profit index BPI has contributed to reduction in emissions intensity. To enhance the rate of improvement in emissions intensity, the Sustainability Index can be used with minimal impacts on profit. Implications To breed for lower emissions intensity, farmers can select animals with high Sustainability Index values that are published on DataVat (datavat.com.au) and the Good Bulls App. To lower gross emissions, combinations of additional measures such as management of diet, adjustment to animal numbers, management of stored manure, and appropriate use of carbon neutral fertiliser, renewable fuels and energy, will need to be adopted on farms.

Agriculture↗

Development of Hydrogen-Fueled, Highly Energy-Efficient, Electro-Hydraulic Excavator

Regulations for CO2 emissions reduction are driving increasing demand for “zero emissions” off-road vehicles (ORVs). Hydrogen internal combustion engines (H2 ICEs) are closer to commercial viability, and less expensive than fuel cells. The major challenge is the slow torque response of H2 ICEs, that makes it difficult to sustain the harsh torque requirements typical of ORVs. The goal of this paper is to overcome this challenge by proposing an electro-hydraulic hybrid technology with hybrid powertrain and multi-pressure rail technology as fluid power system for an excavator, to enable the use of the H2 ICE, while improving efficiency. The study is based on simulation in MATLAB/Simulink environment, using duty cycle data from a 24-ton excavator. Simulation results show that in respect to the diesel-powered baseline, the proposed electro-hydraulic hybrid allows the use of a H2 ICE, eliminates CO2 emissions and ensures a 52% fuel consumption reduction.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Electrification potential of U.S. industrial boilers and assessment of the GHG emissions impact

Electrification is a key strategy for decarbonizing the industrial sector. Industrial process heating, which still relies heavily on fossil fuel combustion and accounts for the majority of sector wide GHG emissions, is a particularly attractive electrification target. Electrifying industrial boilers represents a cross-cutting opportunity for GHG emissions reductions, given their widespread use in most manufacturing industries. Yet, there are gaps in the understanding of the current population of conventional industrial boilers in the United States that preclude a characterization of boiler electrification's technical potential to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions. In this study, we develop an up-to-date dataset of the industrial boiler population in the U.S. and quantify the county-level electricity requirements and net changes in fuel use and GHG emissions under the current electric grid and theoretical future grid scenarios. Our results show an increase of 105 MMmtCO 2 e and 73 MMmtCO 2 e in GHG emissions from boiler electrification, with and without the replacement of byproduct fuels, respectively, under the current electric grid, and a reduction of 19 MMmtCO2e and 7 MMmtCO2e in GHG emissions under a future high renewables electric grid. GHG emissions savings are currently possible only in certain regions of the U.S. unless future grids are decarbonized. We also provide discussion that could be useful for policy makers and manufacturing facilities for advancing the electrification of industrial boilers in locations and industries toward fuel savings and GHG emissions reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Port of Los Angeles Zero- and Near-Zero-Emission Freight Facilities Shore to Store Project

The City of Los Angeles Harbor Department (Harbor Department, Port of Los Angeles) partnered with Equilon Enterprises LLC (d/b/a Shell Oil Products US) (Shell), Toyota Motor North America (Toyota), and Kenworth Truck Company (Kenworth) partnered with the Port of Hueneme, United Parcel Service, Total Transportation Services Inc., Southern Counties Express, Toyota Logistics Services, Air Liquide, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Coalition For A Safe Environment, and the South Coast Air Quality Management District to introduce hydrogen fuel into the Southern California drayage truck market by demonstrating near-commercial heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks at and between freight facilities throughout the region, while continuing to lay the groundwork for battery-electric operations. The Shore to Store project built on project team experience to help realize our vision of zero-emission freight operations in the future. Ten Kenworth zero-emission Class 8 fuel cell electric trucks, integrated with Toyota’s fuel cell drive technology, were operated by United Parcel Service, Total Transportation Services Inc., Southern Counties Express, and Toyota Logistics Services in commercial service. The demonstration fleet fueled at the Shore to Store hydrogen fueling stations that were built in Ontario, California, and Wilmington, California. An additional station at the Port of Long Beach (Portal Station) was available for fueling the fleet. Portal Station was supported by grants from the California Energy Commission and South Coast Air Quality Management District and used as match funding for the Shore to Store project. The Port of Hueneme demonstrated two battery-electric yard tractors, and Toyota Logistics Services demonstrated two zero-emission forklifts at their warehouse facility, showcasing elements of the entire supply chain operating with zero emissions. This project showcased a snapshot of the zero-emission supply chain of the future, providing a model by which freight facilities can support zero-emission operations. The Shore to Store project: Demonstrated the technical feasibility of zero-emission hydrogen fueled Class 8 heavy-duty trucks and electric cargo handling equipment in rigorous goods movement operation throughout the Southern California region. Cumulatively completed 59,212 miles of zero-emission operation, with 21,650 miles driven in-service with the fleets, using hydrogen fuel cell electric Class 8 heavy-duty trucks. Operated zero-emission yard tractors for a total of 2,749.6 hours. Created direct localized emission reductions in designated disadvantaged communities, including those in zip codes 90220, 90247, 90248, 90731, 90744, 90802, and 91761. For the 59,212 miles of zero-emission operation, reduced emissions by an estimated total of 15.5 kg NOX (0.163 g/km), 1.01 kg SOX (0.0106 g/km), and 304.8 metric tonnes of CO2e (3.2 kg/km) compared to diesel baseline vehicles including both tailpipe emissions and the emissions from producing the fuel sources.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A global anthropogenic emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants from sector- and fuel-specific sources (1970–2017): an application of the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

Global anthropogenic emission inventories remain vital for understanding the sources of atmospheric pollution and the associated impacts on the environment, human health, and society. Rapid changes in today's society require that these inventories provide contemporary estimates of multiple atmospheric pollutants with both source sector and fuel type information to understand and effectively mitigate future impacts. To fill this need, we have updated the open-source Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) (Hoesly et al., 2019) to develop a new global emission inventory, CEDSGBD-MAPS. This inventory includes emissions of seven key atmospheric pollutants (NOx; CO; SO2; NH3; non-methane volatile organic compounds, NMVOCs; black carbon, BC; organic carbon, OC) over the time period from 1970–2017 and reports annual country-total emissions as a function of 11 anthropogenic sectors (agriculture; energy generation; industrial processes; on-road and non-road transportation; separate residential, commercial, and other sectors (RCO); waste; solvent use; and international shipping) and four fuel categories (total coal, solid biofuel, the sum of liquid-fuel and natural-gas combustion, and remaining process-level emissions). The CEDSGBD-MAPS inventory additionally includes monthly global gridded (0.5°?×?0.5°) emission fluxes for each compound, sector, and fuel type to facilitate their use in earth system models. CEDSGBD-MAPS utilizes updated activity data, updates to the core CEDS default scaling procedure, and modifications to the final procedures for emissions gridding and aggregation. Relative to the previous CEDS inventory (Hoesly et al., 2018), these updates extend the emission estimates from 2014 to 2017 and improve the overall agreement between CEDS and two widely used global bottom-up emission inventories. The CEDSGBD-MAPS inventory provides the most contemporary global emission estimates to date for these key atmospheric pollutants and is the first to provide global estimates for these species as a function of multiple fuel types and source sectors. Dominant sources of global NOx and SO2 emissions in 2017 include the combustion of oil, gas, and coal in the energy and industry sectors as well as on-road transportation and international shipping for NOx. Dominant sources of global CO emissions in 2017 include on-road transportation and residential biofuel combustion. Dominant global sources of carbonaceous aerosol in 2017 include residential biofuel combustion, on-road transportation (BC only), and emissions from the waste sector. Global emissions of NOx, SO2, CO, BC, and OC all peak in 2012 or earlier, with more recent emission reductions driven by large changes in emissions from China, North America, and Europe. In contrast, global emissions of NH3 and NMVOCs continuously increase between 1970 and 2017, with agriculture as a major source of global NH3 emissions and solvent use, energy, residential, and the on-road transport sectors as major sources of global NMVOCs. Due to similar development methods and underlying datasets, the CEDSGBD-MAPS emissions are expected to have consistent sources of uncertainty as other bottom-up inventories. The CEDSGBD-MAPS source code is publicly available online through GitHub: https://github.com/emcduffie/CEDS/tree/CEDS_GBD-MAPS (last access: 1 December 2020). The CEDSGBD-MAPS emission inventory dataset (both annual country-total and monthly global gridded files) is publicly available under https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3754964 (McDuffie et al., 2020c).

Mcduffie, Erin↗

Lawrence, Massachusetts, Residential Building Efficiency and Electrification Analysis [Slides]

As part of the Communities Local Energy Action Program (CLEAP), the Lawrence Stakeholders Coalition (LSC) is interested in assessing and understanding the potential for and pathways to electrification for the City of Lawrence. The LSC's main questions are: What is the impact of various electrification packages on residential electricity bills and what types of buildings should the LSC target for electrification plus weatherization packages? This technical assistance, using ResStock tool modeling, aims to assist the Coalition's electrification and energy burden reduction planning by: 1. Providing cross-cutting data on housing stock characteristics, energy burden characteristics, fuel types, energy consumption, and system efficiency; and 2. Providing information on upgrade package costs, emissions reduction, and energy reductions by prioritized housing segment. The ResStock analysis presented here focuses on opportunities to reduce energy burden, energy consumption, and energy bills for single family homes, multifamily buildings, and mobile homes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗