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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Hydrogen Load Modeling Method for Integrated Hydrogen Energy System Planning

The integrated hydrogen energy system incorporates hydrogen energy into the power grid, which has been recognized as a promising option for reaching a 100% renewable electricity supply. It can make a profit because the hydrogen produced can be sold as fuel or used to generate electricity for grid services. In this paper, we develop a planning model for the integrated hydrogen energy system that considers the uncertainty of the load demand, the renewable energy generation, and the market prices. To calculate the hydrogen load, we simulate the refueling operations at a hydrogen fueling station over the course of one day and generate representative load profiles with K-means clustering. Moreover, the long-term profitability of the integrated system under both current and future conditions is validated in 10-year planning results.

grid service↗
DOE OSTI2024

Guide for Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings for Federal Agencies

This guide provides an overview of GEB characteristics and benefits and how to analyze, identify, and implement GEB retrofit opportunities. It is important to understand the building’s systems as well as what utility program offerings are available at the site (e.g., time-of-use, electricity rates, demand charges, demand response programs, etc.). It is also important to understand the key goals for the site (e.g., environmental, cost savings, energy savings) and the current energy usage breakdown by equipment and load profile variability by day, month, and season.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Medium and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - Load Operations and Deployment (HEVI-LOAD) v1.0

In order to support the California state goals to reduce the carbon and pollution emissions (AB2127), The goal of this project (HEVI-Pro) is to project the charging infrastructure needs by future medium- and heavy- duty electric vehicles, and assess optimal deployment the infrastructure in California and provide grid impacts analysis. The MHDV projections will also consider transportation system and electric system interaction with light duty vehicles. The project consists of 2 approaches in general: top-down approach that takes aggregated MHDV adoptions as the inputs and provide the county-level projections of charging load profile and infrastructure need, and the bottom-up approach that that incorporates more granular (temporal, spatial and duty-cycle-specific) behaviors of a variety of MHDVs into activity simulations/optimizations for further analysis.

Wang, Bin↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space Transportation Infrastructure Supported By Propellant Depots

A space transportation infrastructure is described that utilizes propellant depots to support all foreseeable missions in the Earth-Moon vicinity and deep space out to Mars. The infrastructure utilizes current expendable launch vehicles such as the Delta IV Heavy, Atlas V, and Falcon 9, for all crew, cargo, and propellant launches to orbit. Propellant launches are made to a Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) Depot and an Earth-Moon Lagrange Point 1 (L1) Depot to support new reusable in-space transportation vehicles. The LEO Depot supports missions to Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) for satellite servicing, and to L1 for L1 Depot missions. The L1 Depot supports Lunar, Earth-Sun L2 (ESL2), Asteroid, and Mars missions. A Mars Orbital Depot is also described to support ongoing Mars missions. New concepts for vehicle designs are presented that can be launched on current 5-meter diameter expendable launch vehicles. These new reusable vehicle concepts include a LEO Depot, L1 Depot, and Mars Orbital Depot based on International Space Station (ISS) heritage hardware. The high-energy depots at L1 and Mars orbit are compatible with, but do not require, electric propulsion tug use for propellant and/or cargo delivery. New reusable in-space crew transportation vehicles include a Crew Transfer Vehicle (CTV) for crew transportation between the LEO Depot and the L1 Depot, a new reusable Lunar Lander for crew transportation between the L1 Depot and the lunar surface, and a Deep Space Habitat (DSH) to support crew missions from the L1 Depot to ESL2, Asteroid, and Mars destinations. A 6 meter diameter Mars lander concept is presented that can be launched without a fairing based on the Delta IV heavy Payload Planners Guide, which indicates feasibility of a 6.5 meter fairing. This lander would evolve to re-usable operations when propellant production is established on Mars. Figure 1 provides a summary of the possible missions this infrastructure can support. Summary mission profiles are presented for each primary mission capability. These profiles are the basis for propellant loads, numbers of vehicles/stages and launches for each mission capability. Data includes the number of launches required for each mission utilizing current expendable launch vehicle systems, and concluding remarks include ideas for reducing the number of launches through incorporation of heavy-lift launch vehicles, solar electric propulsion, and other transportation support concepts.

Smitherman, David↗
DOE OSTI2020

TEMPEST (Thermo-Electric Model for Powering Energy Storage Technologies)

NREL's TEMPEST model combines electrical and thermal modeling for residential-scale battery systems. The model and default parameters are based off of two common commercial residential batteries. Key inputs to the model include house load, temperature of the battery location, and the solar profile. The key output of the TEMPEST model is the battery profile and internal battery temperature. If internal battery temperature exceeds limits, a derating will occur and this will be reflected in the battery profile. In addition to thermal modeling, the TEMPEST model uses realistic operating principals that are common in today's residential batteries. Mainly, the TEMPEST model incorporates "modes" of operation that constrain battery setpoint based on house load, solar output, and state of charge. The TEMPEST model can be used to analyze the effect of battery temperature, deratings, and mode setpoints on utility network loading and customer bills.

Blonsky, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seasonal Reconfiguration of Electrical Distribution Systems to Mitigate the Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging

Power grids face challenges in their infrastructure related to the integration of electric vehicles (EV). In particular, EV charging stations may induce instability in key system parameters such as substantial voltage drops, active power losses, and transformer overload due to high demand during charging periods. This article presents a seasonal reconfiguration strategy based on the differential evolution (DE) algorithm, aimed at enhancing system performance under highly variable and stochastic load profiles, particularly those driven by EV charging. The DEA algorithm is hybridized with the find-union (FU) algorithm to efficiently ensure network radiality throughout the optimization process. The proposed methodology is validated on a hybrid distribution system composed of the IEEE 33-bus network, a modified IEEE 13-bus system, and a specific 13-bus microgrid. Results have demonstrated that seasonal reconfiguration significantly reduces active power losses and mitigates transformer loading during critical demand hours, thereby quantifiably increasing the system’s performance. As an integral component of the proposed approach, an analysis of CO2 emissions associated with energy losses is included, allowing a contextualized assessment of the environmental benefits of seasonal reconfiguration in various geographical areas.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance and Implementation Requirements for Residential EV Smart Charge Management Strategies

As the electrification of transportation expands, electric vehicle (EV) charging as residential loads will continue to grow. Residential EV charging has the potential to increase feeder peak loads and decrease voltage quality. As a result of this growing energy demand driven by EV, utilities may employ the use of smart charge management (SCM) controls to modify charging load profiles and mitigate these grid impacts. It is important that utilities understand both the potential benefits-as well as possible implementation challenges-before considering this technology as a solution to managing growing EV loads. In order for an SCM strategy to be an effective solution, the potential benefits must outweigh the implementation challenges. This study establishes and tests a novel framework to assess the implementation requirements of different SCM controls. It identifies a range of requirements specific to various SCM controls and implementation approaches to compare the relative challenges associated with the deployment of each. When paired with analysis on the effectiveness of the ability of each control to mitigate grid impacts from EV charging, this assessment is critical in comparing the value potential of different SCM controls.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1974

Space processing applications payload equipment study. Volume 2B: Payload interface analysis (power/thermal/electromagnetic compatibility)

As a part of the task of performing preliminary engineering analysis of modular payload subelement/host vehicle interfaces, a subsystem interface analysis was performed to establish the integrity of the modular approach to the equipment design and integration. Salient areas that were selected for analysis were power and power conditioning, heat rejection and electromagnetic capability (EMC). The equipment and load profiles for twelve representative experiments were identified. Two of the twelve experiments were chosen as being representative of the group and have been described in greater detail to illustrate the evaluations used in the analysis. The shuttle orbiter will provide electrical power from its three fuel cells in support of the orbiter and the Spacelab operations. One of the three shuttle orbiter fuel cells will be dedicated to the Spacelab electrical power requirements during normal shuttle operation. This power supplies the Spacelab subsystems and the excess will be available to the payload. The current Spacelab sybsystem requirements result in a payload allocation of 4.0 to 4.8 kW average (24 hour/day) and 9.0 kW peak for 15 minutes.

Hammel, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Mount Protects Thin-Walled Glass or Ceramic Tubes from Large Thermal and Vibration Loads

The design allows for the low-stress mounting of fragile objects, like thin walled glass, by using particular ways of compensating, isolating, or releasing the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) differences between the mounted object and the mount itself. This mount profile is lower than true full kinematic mounting. Also, this approach enables accurate positioning of the component for electrical and optical interfaces. It avoids the higher and unpredictable stress issues that often result from potting the object. The mount has been built and tested to space-flight specifications, and has been used for fiber-optic, optical, and electrical interfaces for a spaceflight mission. This mount design is often metal and is slightly larger than the object to be mounted. The objects are optical or optical/electrical, and optical and/or electrical interfaces are required from the top and bottom. This requires the mount to be open at both ends, and for the object s position to be controlled. Thin inside inserts at the top and bottom contact the housing at defined lips, or edges, and hold the fragile object in the mount. The inserts can be customized to mimic the outer surface of the object, which further reduces stress. The inserts have the opposite CTE of the housing material, partially compensating for the CTE difference that causes thermal stress. A spring washer is inserted at one end to compensate for more CTE difference and to hold the object against the location edge of the mount for any optical position requirements. The spring also ensures that any fiber-optic or optic interface, which often requires some pressure to ensure a good interface, does not overstress the fragile object. The insert thickness, material, and spring washer size can be traded against each other to optimize the mount and stresses for various thermal and vibration load ranges and other mounting requirements. The alternate design uses two separate, unique features to reduce stress and hold the object. A release agent is applied to the inside surface of the mount just before the binding potting material is injected in the mount. This prevents the potting material from bonding to the mount, and thus prevents stress from being applied, at very low temperatures, to the fragile object being mounted. The potting material mixing and curing is temperature- and humidity-controlled. The mount has radial grooves cut in it that the potting material fills, thus controlling the vertical position of the mounted object. The design can easily be used for long and thin objects, short and wide objects, and any shape in between. The design s advantages are amplified for long and thin fragile objects. The general testing range was 45 to +45 C, but multiple mounts were successfully tested down to 60 and up to 50 C and the design can be adjusted for larger ranges.

Amato, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Wind

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power allocation by load aggregator with heterogeneous loads using weighted projection

With the recently increasing adoption of transactive energy markets, the role of a load aggregator is becoming increasingly important. Among the many tasks of an aggregator, the task of managing the electricity consumption among a group of grid-interactive efficient buildings according to the demand on the grid is taken up. Specifically, here, the task of allocating a certain amount of power among the participating customers while respecting their preferences and comfort is considered. Modeling this as an aggregate flexibility, the virtual battery conditions that are employed to verify the feasibility of a candidate power profile are derived. A feasible power profile, when allocated, satisfies specified comfort bands. To determine the ideal power requirement of the loads, the model-free control method is employed. The feasible power profile is allocated by embedding the customers’ preferences through weights, posing the power constraint as a hyperplane, and employing a weighted projection from the ideal power requirements onto the constraint plane to solve the considered task. The proposed method is computationally efficient and scalable to any number of heterogeneous thermostatically controlled loads in buildings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes: Measure Documentation: Add Exhaust Air Heat/Energy Recovery

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—Add Exhaust Air Heat/Energy Recovery. This measure adds exhaust air energy recovery or heat recovery to existing air handling units (AHU) with outdoor air. Systems that already have energy/heat recovery are not modified. Furthermore, food service building types are also not modified by this measure due to the added complication of integrating cooking hood exhaust that could cause heat exchanger fouling from kitchen exhaust. In total, this measure is applicable airloops serving ~70% of the floor area in ComStock. In practice, energy/heat recovery systems are retrofitted to existing air delivery systems either as separate systems that provide outdoor air to the AHUs or are directly integrated to an AHU; the modeling approach used in this study is agnostic of the energy recovery type and simply accounts recovery effectiveness, added static pressure, and other controls which are described further in this document. Energy recovery with sensible and latent exchange gets added in humid climate zones, while heat recovery with sensible-only exchange gets added in drier climate zones. Energy recovery is modeled as a fixed membrane plate counterflow heat exchanger, while heat recovery is modeled as a sensible-only fixed aluminum plate counterflow heat exchanger. Both systems include a bypass (for temperature control and economizer lockout) and electric resistance preheat coil for frost prevention.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2004

Reconditioning of Batteries on the International Space Station

Primary source of electric power for the International Space Station (ISS) is the photovoltaic module (PVM). At assembly complete stage, the ISS will be served by 4 PVMs. Each PVM contains two independent power channels such that one failure will result in loss of only one power channel. During early stages of assembly, the ISS is served by only one PVM designated as P6. Solar arrays are used to convert solar flux into electrical power. Nickel hydrogen batteries are used to store electrical power for use during periods when the solar input is not adequate to support channel loads. Batteries are operated per established procedures that ensure that they are maintained within specified temperature limits, charge current is controlled to conform to a specified charge profile, and battery voltages are maintained within specified limits. Both power channels on the PVM P6 have been operating flawlessly since December 2000 with 100 percent power availability. All components, including batteries, are monitored regularly to ensure that they are operating within specified limits and to trend their wear out and age effects. The paper briefly describes the battery trend data. Batteries have started to show some effects of aging and a battery reconditioning procedure is being evaluated at this time. Reconditioning is expected to reduce cell voltage divergence and provide data that can be used to update the state of charge (SOC) computation in the software to account for battery age. During reconditioning, each battery, one at a time, will be discharged per a specified procedure and then returned to a full state of charge. The paper describes the reconditioning procedure and the expected benefits. The reconditioning procedures have been thoroughly coordinated by all affected technical teams and approved by all required boards. The reconditioning is tentatively scheduled for September 2004.

Hajela, Gyan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of phase change thermal storage in a cascade heat pump

Here this study proposes a low-global warming potential cascade heat pump system with integrated phase change material (PCM) for combined space heating and cooling. PCM is embedded in the intermediate heat exchanger that couples an outdoor R290 refrigerant circuit and an indoor CO 2 circuit. We used a clustering method to develop seasonally representative load and ambient temperature profiles for residential buildings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. We simulated the system peak shaving performance on the selected representative days, assuming three different PCM options including ice (0 °C), tetradecane (5.6 °C), and a commercially available PCM, SP9 (10.5 °C). The baseline was the same cascade system without thermal storage. We investigated the effect of both thermal energy storage capacity (kWh th ) and PCM transition temperature on system performance. The results show that higher thermal energy storage capacity shaves more electric energy until it reaches a maximum value set by the load characteristics of the building. SP9, with the highest transition temperature, shaves the most electric energy, while ice shaves the least. Moreover, ice has the highest charging cost, especially in the cooling season when the outdoor circuit has to operate at an evaporating temperature lower than 0 °C to make ice. Our results show that SP9 presents the lowest levelized cost of storage, closely followed by ice. A lower off-peak electricity rate benefits ice more than SP9 or tetradecane because ice has the largest charging cost penalty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

County-level assessment of behind-the-meter solar and storage to mitigate long duration power interruptions for residential customers

Customer concerns over electric system resilience could drive early adoption of behind-the-meter solar-plus-storage (BTM PVESS), especially as wildfire, hurricane, and other climate-driven risks to electric grids become more pronounced. However, the resilience benefits of BTM PVESS are poorly understood, especially for residential customers, owing to lack of data and methodological challenges, making it difficult to forecast adoption trends. In this paper, we develop a methodology to model the performance of BTM PVESS in providing backup power across a wide range of customer types, geography / climate conditions, and long duration power interruption scenarios, considering both whole-building backup and backup of specific critical loads. We combine novel, disaggregated end-use load profiles across the continental United States with temporally and geospatially aligned solar generation estimates. We then implement a PVESS dispatch algorithm to calculate the amount of load served during interruptions. We find that PVESS with 10 kWh of storage can meet a limited set of critical loads in most United States counties during any month of the year, though this capability drops to meeting only 86% of critical load, averaged across all counties and months, when heating and cooling are considered critical. Backup performance is lowest in winter months where electric heat is common (southeast and northwest U.S.) and in summer months in places with large cooling loads (southwest and southeast U.S.). Winter backup performance varies by roughly 20% depending on infiltration rates, while summer performance varies by close to 15% depending on the efficiency of the central air-conditioning system. Differences in temperature set-points in Harris County correspond to a 40% range in winter backup performance and a 20% range in summer performance. Economic calculations show that a customer’s resilience value of PVESS must be high to motivate adoption of these systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Commercial building HVAC demand flexibility with model predictive control: Field demonstration and literature insights

Model Predictive Control (MPC) for building Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems is beginning to gain traction in the market, with a few controls companies incorporating it into their product offerings. However, it remains difficult to assess whether the energy cost savings are enough to justify the cost of MPC implementation for a particular building, given the limited number of reported demonstrations. For small commercial and residential buildings with relatively uniform systems, standardized approaches can help lower implementation costs. In contrast, for large buildings or district systems, the potential magnitude of cost savings could justify more customized solutions. Estimating the cost-effectiveness of MPC becomes more challenging for medium and large commercial buildings, where a one-size-fits-all solution may not be suitable, and the potential energy cost savings may be insufficient to justify a customized solution. To make MPC technology more appealing, incorporating additional value streams beyond energy efficiency alone can significantly increase its attractiveness. One such revenue stream is demand flexibility, in response to dynamic electricity prices, where MPC can leverage the thermal mass of the building to shift the load and support the grid. Building on an extensive literature review of MPC field studies focused on cost savings and demand flexibility, this paper presents the results of implementing MPC control in a large office building HVAC system in Berkeley, CA. Four different dynamic electricity price profiles were integrated into the MPC objective function to shift building demand while maintaining comfort, and field testing was performed with each price profile across four seasons. The results show potential for 40–65 % demand decrease percentage and up to 61 % annual cost savings compared to the existing rule-based control strategy, under the tested dynamic price scenarios. This paper also presents a sensitivity analysis on the cost savings with respect to the price profile variability, discusses the implementation effort for the price-responsive MPC, and compares the cost savings found in this study to those found in literature on the basis of dynamic price variability, or so-called Electricity Price Relative Standard Deviation.

Zanetti, Ettore↗