The FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS): Earth System Modeling to Support Famine Early Warning
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Kimberly Slinski↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “early warning systems”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Early Warning: Development of Confidential Incident Reporting Systems
Accidents hardly ever happen without warning. The combination, or sequence, of failures and mistakes that cause an accident may indeed be unique but the individual failures and mistakes rarely are. In the USA in 1974 the crews on two different aircraft misunderstood the same aeronautical chart and descended towards their destination dangerously early towards a mountain. The first crew were in good weather conditions and could see the mountain and resolved their misinterpretation of the chart. The second crew six weeks later were not so lucky. In cloud they had no clues to point out their mistake nor the presence of the mountain. The resulting crash and the ensuing inquiry, which brought to light the previous incident, shocked the country but gave it the impetus to instigate a safety reporting system. This system eventually became the NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The programme collects incident reports from pilots, controllers, mechanics, cabin attendants and many others involved in aviation operations. By disseminating this safety information the ASRS has helped enormously to give US airlines and airspace the highest safety standards. Accident prevention is a goal sought by everyone in the aviation industry and establishing effective incident reporting programmes can go a long way toward achieving that goal. This article will describe the steps and issues required to establish an incident reporting system. The authors summarize the lessons learned from the ASRS, now in its twentieth year of operation and from the Confidential Human Factors Reporting (HER) Programme run by British Airways, an airline that is a recognized world leader in safety reporting and analysis. The differences between government and airline operation of confidential safety reporting systems will be addressed.
OLeary, Mike J.↗
Specification of parameters for development of a spatial database for drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel
Parameters were described for spatial database to facilitate drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel. The proposed system, referred to as the African Drought and Famine Information System (ADFIS) is ultimately recommended for implementation with the NASA/FEMA Spatial Analysis and Modeling System (SAMS), a GIS/Dymanic Modeling software package, currently under development. SAMS is derived from FEMA'S Integration Emergency Management Information System (IEMIS) and the Pacific Northwest Laborotory's/Engineering Topographic Laboratory's Airland Battlefield Environment (ALBE) GIS. SAMS is primarily intended for disaster planning and resource management applications with the developing countries. Sources of data for the system would include the Developing Economics Branch of the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, the World Bank, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine's Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS) Project, the USAID's Foreign Disaster Assistance Section, the World Resources Institute, the World Meterological Institute, the USGS, the UNFAO, UNICEF, and the United Nations Disaster Relief Organization (UNDRO). Satellite imagery would include decadal AVHRR imagery and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from 1981 to the present for the African continent and selected Landsat scenes for the Sudan pilot study. The system is initially conceived for the MicroVAX 2/GPX, running VMS. To facilitate comparative analysis, a global time-series database (1950 to 1987) is included for a basic set of 125 socio-economic variables per country per year. A more detailed database for the Sahelian countries includes soil type, water resources, agricultural production, agricultural import and export, food aid, and consumption. A pilot dataset for the Sudan with over 2,500 variables from the World Bank's ANDREX system, also includes epidemiological data on incidence of kwashiorkor, marasmus, other nutritional deficiencies, and synergistically-related infectious diseases.
Rochon, Gilbert L.↗
The Role of Nuclear-Conventional Intermingling on State Decision-making and the Risk of Inadvertent Escalation
The questions answered by this report are: What are the implications of nuclear and conventional intermingling on crisis stability and the potential risk of miscalculation?, and Specifically, how might entanglement influence US and competitor decision making during crisis and conflict? In practice, there are three main forms of nuclear-conventional intermingling. First, intermingling between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon systems can occur via the fielding of dual capable delivery systems like missiles or aircraft. Second, intermingling can happen due to the co-location of nuclear and non-nuclear forces and their support structures—for example, the co-location of strategic bombers and general-purpose aircraft, or the co-location of strategic submarines and general-purpose vessels. Third, intermingling can occur via convolving nuclear and conventional military command and control systems, to include ballistic missile early warning and potentially space surveillance systems as well. All three forms of nuclear-conventional intermingling have significantly increased since the end of the Cold War, driven by both technological and doctrinal changes. However, there are important differences in the rationale behind, and also the risks associated with these three different forms of intermingling. The mere existence of dual capable systems is not new— deploying such systems can increase the effectiveness of forces, and it can also provide more flexibility. The major powers have both employed and threatened with dual capable systems for decades, and they have done so without nuclear escalation. Similarly, the major powers co-located nuclear and conventional systems in the Cold War, and they did so for variety of reasons that had nothing to do with complicating the adversary’s risk calculus. The Soviet Union, for example, decided to co-locate its nuclear and conventional forces for economic and administrative reasons. Although today it might be recognized as a useful deterrent tool, it was not their primary intention. Major powers want to convince rivals that the co-location of forces creates a high bar for targeting and raises the risk of nuclear escalation, but they also want to have the flexibility of this not being true in an actual crisis or conflict.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
An accumulation method for early fault warning and its application to wind turbine systems
Unexpected failures in engineering systems lead to expensive maintenance actions and should be avoided if at all possible. This is particularly true for wind turbine systems for which unexpected failures not only demand costly repairs but also cause long downtime. Motivated by this need, we present an accumulation method for fault early warning and failure anticipation. Here, our research shows that one critical element allowing the ability of early warning is to accumulate the small-magnitude symptoms resulting from gradual changes in an engineering system like wind turbines. Our idea is inspired by the classical cumulative sum method, or CUSUM, but we have to redesign the accumulation mechanism for tackling unique challenges in wind turbine data. The new accumulation method is applied to two real wind turbine datasets, one with gearbox failures and the other with generator failures, and demonstrates superior performance as compared with CUSUM.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Monitoring strain evolution in water-sand systems using distributed acoustic sensing for geohazard early warning
Rainfall-driven hazards such as landslides, debris flows, and earthen dam failures often arise when water changes the internal strain within sand. This study evaluates the ability of distributed acoustic sensing to monitor these strain changes in real time. We embed a fiber-optic cable in a sand-filled glass cylinder and run controlled dry- and wet-sand experiments to measure how strain develops as water infiltrates, saturates, and drains from the sand. The sensing system detects uneven water movement in dry sand and enables millimeter-scale estimates of infiltration rates, and in wet sand it tracks rising water levels, delayed strain peaks after saturation, and abrupt strain shifts during drainage. These results show that fiber-optic sensing captures subtle strain evolution throughout the full water-sand interaction cycle. The study demonstrates that fiber-optic sensing offers promising potential for real-time and cost-effective monitoring and early warning of rainfall-induced geohazards.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning
We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Atlantis deploys early warning satellite - Mission cut short by navigation system failure
A day-by-day review of the STS-44 mission is presented. Emphasis is given to the deployment of the Defense Support Program (DSP) missile warning satellite. The cutting short of the mission due to the failure of the IMU 2 navigation system is described.
Schuiling, Roelof L.↗
Real-Time Early Warning Techniques
Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current one-sensor, one-indicator threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.
Javorsek, Dan↗
Enhancing Flight Test Safety with Real-Time Early Warning Techniques
Contemporary approaches to aerospace vehicle system monitoring rely heavily on thresholds that represent a compromise between providing warning early enough to avert a mishap while simultaneously minimizing false alarms. While this reliance on thresholds has been in place for decades and has permeated both cockpits and control rooms, we often find it insufficient when retrospectively analyzing data from an accident. To modernize and enhance flight test safety, we introduce new methods of monitoring for anomalous patterns of interaction rather than for thresholds exceedance. For systems with a well characterized baseline we show how the Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), utilized by NASA in the aftermath of the Columbia accident, might be implemented in real-time to provide earlier warning than currently employed techniques. For systems without such a baseline, we introduce new developments in statistical methods relating to critical slowing down, first applied in medicine and physics, which show promise for adaptation to flight test. Finally, the familiar resource constrained environment leads to a reliance on increased instrumentation that is challenging the limits of the current "one-sensor, one-indicator" threshold paradigm. Existing methods thus fail to accurately reflect the true complexity of a vehicle rich with interdependent interacting systems. We highlight these concepts in a brief summary of the 2001 Air Transat Flight 236 deadstick landing in the Azores. We then suggest control room and cockpit modifications to better display the information gleaned using these novel monitoring methods.
Javorsek, Daniel, II↗
Applications of artificial intelligence V; Proceedings of the Meeting, Orlando, FL, May 18-20, 1987
The papers contained in this volume focus on current trends in applications of artificial intelligence. Topics discussed include expert systems, image understanding, artificial intelligence tools, knowledge-based systems, heuristic systems, manufacturing applications, and image analysis. Papers are presented on expert system issues in automated, autonomous space vehicle rendezvous; traditional versus rule-based programming techniques; applications to the control of optional flight information; methodology for evaluating knowledge-based systems; and real-time advisory system for airborne early warning.
Gilmore, John F.↗
Microscale Particulate Classifiers (MiPAC) Being Developed
The NASA Glenn Research Center is developing microscale sensors to characterize atmospheric-borne particulates. The devices are fabricated using MEMS (microelectromechanical systems) technologies. These technologies are derived from those originally developed in support of the semiconductor processing industry. The resulting microsensors can characterize a wide range of particles and are, therefore, suitable to a broad range of applications. This project is supported under a collaborative program called the Glennan Microsystems Initiative. The initiative comprises members of NASA Glenn Research Center, various university affiliates from the State of Ohio, and a number of participating industrial partners. Funding is jointly provided by NASA, the State of Ohio, and industrial members. The work described here is a collaborative arrangement between researchers at Glenn, the University of Minnesota, The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and the Cleveland State University. Actual device fabrication is conducted at Glenn and at the laboratories of Case Western Reserve University. Case Western is also located in Cleveland, Ohio, and is a participating member of the initiative. The principal investigator for this project is Paul S. Greenberg of Glenn. Two basic types of devices are being developed, and target different ranges of particle sizes. The first class of devices, which is used to measure nanoparticles (i.e., particles in the range of 0.002 to 1 mm), is based on the technique of Electrical Mobility Classification. This technique also affords the valuable ability of measuring the electrical charge state of the particles. Such information is important in the understanding of agglomeration mechanisms and is useful in the development of methods for particle repulsion. The second type of device being developed, which utilizes optical scattering, is suitable for particles larger than 1 mm. This technique also provides information on particle shape and composition. Applications for these sensors include fundamental planetary climatology, monitoring and filtration in spacecraft, human habitation modules and related systems, characterization of particulate emissions from propulsion and power systems, and as early warning sensors for both space-based and ter-restrial fire detection. These devices are also suitable for characterizing biological compounds such as allergens, infectious agents, and biotoxic agents.
Greenberg, Paul S.↗
2004 Space Report: Environment and Strategy for Space Research at NATO's Research and Technology Organisation (RTO)
This report describes the motivation for and a strategy to enhance the NATO Research and Technology Organisation's (RTO) current space research effort to reflect NATO's growing military dependence on space systems. Such systems and services provided by these systems are critical elements of military operations. NATO uses space systems for operational planning and support, communication, radio navigation, multi-sensor and multi-domain demonstrations. Such systems are also used to promote regional stability. A quantitative analysis of work related to space in the NATO RTO showed that during the period of 1998 - 2004, 5% of the research pursued in the NATO RTO has been clearly focused on space applications. Challenging environmental and organizational barriers for increasing RTO space research were identified. In part, these include lack of sufficient space expertise representation on panels, the military sensitivity of space, current panel work loads and the need for specific technical recommendations from peers. A strategy for enhancing space research in the RTO is to create a limited-life Space Advisory Group (SAG) composed of Space Expert Consultants who are panel members with appropriate expertise and additional expertise from the nations. The SAG will recommend and find support in the nations for specific technical activities related to space in the areas of Space Science, Remote Sensing Data Analysis, Spacecraft Systems, Surveillance and Early Warning, Training and Simulation and Policy. An RTO Space Advisory Group will provide an organizational mechanism to gain recognition of RTO as a forum for trans-Atlantic defence space research and to enhance space research activities.
Woods-Vedeler, Jessica A.↗
Establishment, test and evaluation of a prototype volcano surveillance system
A volcano-surveillance system utilizing 23 multilevel earthquake counters and 6 biaxial borehole tiltmeters is being installed and tested on 15 volcanoes in 4 States and 4 foreign countries. The purpose of this system is to give early warning when apparently dormant volcanoes are becoming active. The data are relayed through the ERTS-Data Collection System to Menlo Park for analysis. Installation was completed in 1972 on the volcanoes St. Augustine and Iliamna in Alaska, Kilauea in Hawaii, Baker, Rainier and St. Helens in Washington, Lassen in California, and at a site near Reykjavik, Iceland. Installation continues and should be completed in April 1973 on the volcanoes Santiaguito, Fuego, Agua and Pacaya in Guatemala, Izalco in El Salvador and San Cristobal, Telica and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua.
Ward, P. L.↗
Progress in Development of an Airborne Turbulence Detection System
Aircraft encounters with turbulence are the leading cause of in-flight injuries (Tyrvanas 2003) and have occasionally resulted in passenger and crew fatalities. Most of these injuries are caused by sudden and unexpected encounters with severe turbulence in and around convective activity (Kaplan et al 2005). To alleviate this problem, the Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems (TPAWS) element of NASA s Aviation Safety program has investigated technologies to detect and warn of hazardous in-flight turbulence. This effort has required the numerical modeling of atmospheric convection: 1) for characterizing convectively induced turbulence (CIT) environments, 2) for defining turbulence hazard metrics, and 3) as a means of providing realistic three-dimensional data sets that can be used to test and evaluate turbulence detection sensors. The data sets are being made available to industry and the FAA for certification of future airborne turbulence-detection systems (ATDS) with warning capability. Early in the TPAWS project, a radar-based ATDS was installed and flight tested on NASA s research aircraft, a B-757. This ATDS utilized new algorithms and hazard metrics that were developed for use with existing airborne predictive windshear radars, thus avoiding the installation of new hardware. This system was designed to detect and warn of hazardous CIT even in regions with weak radar reflectivity (i.e. 5-15 dBz). Results from an initial flight test of the ATDS were discussed in Hamilton and Proctor (2002a; 2002b). In companion papers (Proctor et al 2002a; 2002b), a numerical simulation of the most significant encounter from that flight test was presented. Since the presentation of these papers a second flight test has been conducted providing additional cases for examination. In this paper, we will present results from NASA s flight test and a numerical model simulation of a turbulence environment encountered on 30 April 2002. Progress leading towards FAA certification of industry built ATDS will also be discussed.
Hamilton, David W.↗
THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD LEAD CANISTER’S HEATER BENCH TESTS
A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to confirm the function and ability of the electric heater assemblies that were specially designed to provide heating similar to the decay heat of nuclear material contained within the canister storage system. Heater bench testing is planned for early 2022 in a test configuration that does not include the canister. The goal of the bench testing is to verify that the heaters can replicate the decay heat of a canister with nuclear material and to validate the thermal models, which are critical to understanding the HLC’s thermal environment, including the local air flow within the canister storage system. Testing of the heater assemblies inside the canister system are planned in the future to validate canister level thermal models, and rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2025-2026 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the bench testing. A description of the heater assemblies and planned bench testing is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD code STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was performed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.
Suffield, Sarah R.↗
THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD CESIUM AND STRONTIUM CANISTERS DURING SIMULATED LOADING
A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies within a canister and overpack for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to make pretest numerical predictions for the behavior of the heated canister during the simulated radiolytic decay heat testing, which simulates the dry storage system during loading operations. The simulated radiolytic decay heat test is planned for mid-2024 in a configuration that includes the heater assembly, overpack, and canister, but with the lids removed to allow loading cesium and strontium capsules into the canister. One of the goals of the test is to evaluate the thermal behavior of the canister and overpack assembly in the ambient air of the test facility, which will provide data critical to validating the thermal models and understanding how the HLC will perform as a system once deployed. To best approximate real-world conditions, the CFD model includes the full air volume of the mock-up truck bay the heated canister test will be performed in, enabling detailed investigation of how the heated canister affects airflow around it. Rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2028 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the simulated radiolytic decay heat test. A description of the heater assembly, canister, and overpack system is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was preformed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.
Carpenter-Graffy, Dina E.↗
Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region
SERVIR Goal: Use NASA EOS (Earth Observing System) assets to build early warning capabilities and facilitate timely disaster response for high impact weather events in the HKH (Hindu-Kush Himalayan) region. Objectives: 1. High Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit(HIWAT) for the HKH region; 2. Jointly develop HIWAT capabilities/training with ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development); 3. Demonstrate capability in end-user environment; 4. Transition HIWAT to ICIMOD.
thunderstorms↗