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At least 217 records · Page 12

Critical steps in preventing future pandemics. Early lessons from the Covid-19 crisis for addressing natural and deliberate biological threats.

This report summarizes a virtual workshop on early lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic as they pertain to proactively addressing future biological threats. Co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratory (Sandia) and the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) in August 2020, the discussion involved experts who at that time were leading innovative efforts in various U.S. government agencies, industry, and academia sharing observations from their ongoing pandemic response efforts. Based on the input by these expert participants, it is clear that even though the pandemic response is ongoing, the following recommendations will be important to consider for more successfully addressing biological threats in the future: Continue building on the cross-sector collaboration and agility shown in the COVID-19 response; Expand capabilities for detecting biological threats early; Prioritize ways to create and disseminate medical countermeasures even faster; Create the U.S. bio industrial base needed for rapid response to biological threats, and keep it healthy; and, Major government reorganization may not be needed if there is effective work to form coalitions, improve coordination, and expand steady-state and surge capacities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Guidebook: A Cost-Benefit and Decision Analysis Valuation Framework

As an energy storage technology, pumped storage hydropower (PSH) supports various aspects of power system operations. However, determining the value of PSH plants and their many services and contributions to the system has been a challenge. While there is a general understanding that PSH resources provide many services and benefits for the operation of power systems, estimating the value of these services—and especially the monetary value of some of those services—has been a challenge. The objective of this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), is to advance the state of the art in assessing the value of PSH plants and their contributions to the power system. The specific goal is to develop detailed, step-by-step valuation guidance that PSH developers, plant owners or operators, and other stakeholders can use to assess the value of existing or potential new PSH plants and their services. The specific goals of this project are: (1) to develop comprehensive and transparent valuation guidance that will support consistent valuation assessments and comparisons of PSH projects or project design alternatives, (2) to test the PSH valuation guidance and its underlying methodology by applying it to two selected PSH projects, and (3) to transfer and disseminate the PSH valuation guidance to the hydropower industry, PSH developers, and other stakeholders. The authors believe that the application of a consistent, transparent, and repeatable valuation process will advance valuation assessments and allow stakeholders to compare valuation analyses performed for different PSH projects or design alternatives. It will also increase the acceptance of valuation results and enable better understanding of the true value that PSH technology brings to the grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Coupled social and infrastructure approaches for enhancing solar energy adoption. Final Report

The goal of this project was to work with rural electric cooperatives to facilitate the diffusion of solar energy adoption in households located in the rural and semi-urban areas of Virginia by identifying social and behavioral factors that might be unique to rural regions; and develop a model to calculate the solar adoption propensity score for household based on their demographics, social and behavioral characteristics which would provide an objective metric to cooperatives that can be further used to do targeted marketing of rooftop solar panels. This was achieved through the following tasks: (1) Conducted a survey of the members of Virginia electric cooperatives to identify demographic, social, financial and behavioral attributes of individuals who are likely to adopt rooftop solar panels. (2) Developed a highly detailed, data-driven, agent-based model of the population of Virginia, focusing on the rural regions. (3) Developed diffusion models that use social, behavioral, and demographic factors, and peer effects to study their impact on solar adoption in rural areas. (4) Built a prototype tool based on the diffusion model to help study market segmentation in rural areas and made it available to National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA). (5) Results and recommendations derived from the model were provided to NRECA to be shared with participating cooperatives. (6) Results were published in peer reviewed journals, conference proceedings and book chapters, and ideas disseminated through presentations and newsletters. There were several important methodological contributions made under this project which are detailed in the published papers, including: (1) Built a decision-adjusted model for predicting adoptors with imbalanced training data; (2) designed seeding strategies to maximize adoption given a fixed budget; (3) built a methodology to compare different agent based models; (4) created models to identify important factors that influence decision to adopt solar panels; and (5) built a methodology for building household profiles of solar generation to study the duck curve phenomenon. The team included members from the University of Virginia (lead), National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), Arizona State University, Virginia Tech and Sandia National Laboratory. Note that no individual entity or stakeholder has incentive to promote solar in rural regions. Most of the research and work focuses around urban regions where the potential for growth in solar adoption is higher due to higher population density. This puts rural areas at a disadvantage. By improving the diffusion of solar adoption in rural parts of the country, we can not only provide clean energy to rural areas but also promote job growth and improves energy independence.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-Messenger In-situ Tolerance Optimization of Mixed Perovskite Photovoltaics. Final Report

The main objectives for this project were to formulate, validate and disseminate a new procedure based on Environmental X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (EXPS) for the accelerated degradation testing of metal hybrid perovskite (MHP) PV materials. With this capability, we can aid US efforts to improve MHP tolerance for illumination in damp heat conditions. This capability will benefit the public by supporting new industry efforts to create stable MHP formulations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data-Driven Understanding of Low-to-Moderate Income Customers’ Adoption and Financial Qualification in Community Solar (Final Technical Report)

When Solstice began working in the community solar industry, it quickly became clear that there was a wide disparity along race and class lines in terms of what kind of household traditional solar offerings benefited. Solstice is an organization that aligns itself to the principles of a Just Transition, or the concept that a transition to a green economy should benefit and prioritize historically marginalized groups of people. Given that low-income communities are disproportionately burdened by our current polluting fossil fuel economy, Solstice set out to investigate the root causes of the exclusion of low to moderate income (LMI) households in the community solar market. As we worked more and more with financiers, developers, and LMI households, we recognized that significant barriers to entry in a developer-owned project were credit threshold requirements. A FICO score of 750 and higher discriminates against LMI households that are not financially stable enough to take on multiple lines of credit (or who may not have been deemed credit worthy enough to access a line of credit) yet who may have been reliable utility customers. As Solstice began looking further into preliminary data and speaking to community-based organizations (CBOs) that serve LMI households, we found our hypothesis to be worth investigating; there was indeed a subset of LMI households with poor FICO scores (or no FICO score at all) that had perfect bill payment history. Though initially Solstice was intent on gathering a body of data to prove or disprove this hypothesis, we were also concerned that all this proof of a financially stable and reliable customer was not being incorporated into FICO, and wondered if such a score would be possible. After preliminary research into the existence of alternative scores, Solstice realized that many mission-driven lending institutions rely on alternative metrics that are formulated for their specific industry. However, we also realized that community solar did not have an alternative credit underwriting mechanism, though there was great need from solar financiers for one. We anticipated that the creation of an EnergyScore would contribute to financiers’ need to qualify more people, as these entities are desperately looking for ways to lower the cost of customer acquisition. FICO turns away nearly 50% of potential customers (according to our own acquisition experience), and much of the community solar industry is realizing that FICO is not the perfect qualifying mechanism. Additionally, with a grounding in energy justice, just transitions, and climate justice, Solstice recognizes the need for a solution that addresses a more urgent need for LMI households to access renewable energy savings and relieve energy burdens. With funding from the Department of Energy, we gathered the data necessary to build the EnergyScore, reached out to mission-driven developers willing to test the metric, and secured several demonstration projects to pilot the EnergyScore. After acquiring customers for these demo projects using the EnergyScore, we will be continuously collecting customer payment behavior data. Though it goes beyond the scope of this project, we plan to disseminate this de-identified data with the wider community solar industry, which includes not only financiers and developers, but other mission-driven nonprofits, solar cooperatives, community-based organizations, environmental justice activists, and academics. While we intend to disprove the notion that LMI households cannot be included in projects without acutely increasing the risk to project finances, we also hope the data can be used to negotiate better pricing of systems and terms of ownership for community groups seeking to build inclusive projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

State Strategies to Bring Solar to Low- and Moderate-Income Communities

This Final Technical Report describes the goals, objectives, activities, results, and accomplishments of the State Strategies to Bring Solar to Low- and Moderate-Income Communities Project, managed by the Clean Energy States Alliance. This project enabled five states (Connecticut, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Rhode Island) and the District of Columbia to develop and implement strategies for expanding market penetration of solar PV among LMI residents and communities. The project disseminated successful strategies and lessons learned from those states to other states and stakeholders across the country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: January 1 through December 31, 2019

On April 24, 1957, the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) (now the Department of Energy [DOE]) conducted the Project 57 safety experiment in western Emigrant Valley northeast of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) (formerly the Nevada Test Site) on lands withdrawn by the Department of Defense (DOD) for the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). The test was performed to (1) assess a technique for estimating plutonium distribution resulting from a nonnuclear detonation, (2) develop biomedical evaluation techniques for use in plutonium-laden environments, (3) evaluate methods of surface decontamination, and (4) evaluate instruments and field procedures for the prompt estimation of alpha contamination (Shreve, 1958). Although the test did not result in the fission of nuclear materials, it did disseminate plutonium across the land surface. Following the experiment, the AEC fenced the contaminated area and returned control of the surrounding land to the DOD. Various radiological surveys were performed in the area and the DOE expanded the demarked Contamination Area (CA) in 2007 by posting signs 200 ft to 400 ft (60 m to 120 m) outside of the original fence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Molecular Chemistry in Solar Fuel Research

Through this research, we aim to combine transition metal catalysts with light-absorbing semiconductors for use in efficient solar energy conversion. Upon receiving photogenerated electrons from the semiconductors, the transition metal catalysts could accelerate the reduction of carbon dioxide into energy-rich fuels. We have deposited cobalt complexes, including cobalt macrocycles and single cobalt catalysts, onto different semiconductors that demonstrated targeted activities in photochemical carbon dioxide reduction. The structures and catalytic mechanisms of the surface cobalt catalysts were investigated using advanced techniques, including X-ray absorption spectroscopy at DOE user facilities. Our research provides new strategies to enable effective coupling between molecularly defined catalytic sites with heterogeneous surfaces for converting solar energy into chemicals and fuels. Research results obtained through this project have been disseminated through journal publications and conference presentation. In addition, this project provided important interdisciplinary training opportunities for two postdoctoral scholars, four graduate researchers, and one high school student. It also allowed us to establish successful State-National Laboratory partnerships with Brookhaven National Lab and Argonne National Lab.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development of a Framework for Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning for Geological Carbon Sequestration (DIAL-GCS) (Final Report)

This project aimed to develop and demonstrate a Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning framework for geologic carbon sequestration projects (DIAL-GCS). DIAL-GCS is an intelligence monitoring system (IMS) for automating GCS closed-loop management by leveraging recent developments in machine learning technologies, complex event processing (CEP), and reduced-order modeling. The safe and efficient operation of GCS repositories requires integrated monitoring to track the injected CO¬2 as it moves within a storage reservoir. GCS projects are data intensive, as a result of proliferation of digital instrumentation and smart-sensing technologies. GCS projects are also resource intensive, often requiring multidisciplinary teams performing different monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) tasks throughout the lifecycle of a project to ensure secure containment of injected CO2. The success of GCS thus depends in a large part on our ability to access, assimilate, and analyze heterogeneous data and information sources in a timely manner. This project included a number of meaningful and necessary tasks to transform the human domain knowledge into machine-interpretable rules for automating knowledge extraction and discovery in GCS. The specific technical objectives of the proposed DIAL-GCS project were to develop an ontology-driven GCS data management module for storing, querying, and exchanging GCS data (both historic and live sensor data) from multiple sources and in heterogeneous formats. Incorporate a CEP engine for detecting abnormal situations by seamlessly combining expert knowledge, rule-based reasoning, and machine learning. Enable uncertainty quantification and predictive analytics using a combination of coupled-process modeling, AI/ML methods, and reduced-order modeling, and integrate and demonstrate the system’s capabilities with both real and simulated data. As far as we know, this is one of the first projects aimed to develop intelligent monitoring systems (IMS) targeting the GCS. Under this project, the team had developed a large number of web applications and scientific algorithms that contribute the main theme of intelligent monitoring. The team has published more than a dozen peer reviewed papers and disseminated the research results at multiple technical meetings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Microstructure Investigation and Mechanical Properties of Coated Zircaloy Cladding

Accident Tolerant Fuel concepts have been developed and tested in diverse research programs presently around the world. Industry teams have developed proprietary coating compositions and geometries, but significant knowledge gaps exist in terms of the resulting properties of the coating and the cladding and how those components impact each other in reactor conditions. Furthermore, the national laboratory and university teams currently studying the industry concepts are limited in their ability to freely disseminate and discuss results obtained on commercial coatings. The Advanced Fuels Campaign is therefore working to develop an understanding of ‘generic’ coatings applied to commercial nuclear cladding alloys free of these constraints. This milestone report provides insights in the microstructure of a 7-micrometer Cr coating on Zircaloy-2 and a 5- micrometer coating on Zry-4 as reference materials. SEM and TEM methods were utilized to describe and identify the interface, while nanoindentation was used to determine hardness and E-Moduli of coating and cladding material. This milestone summarizes the acquired knowledge to build a necessary verified foundation for future simulation and qualification efforts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The development of yield-based sooting tendency measurements and modeling to enable advanced combustion fuels

This project produced clear evidence that biofuels can reduce particulate emissions from road vehicles compared with petroleum-derived fuels. It also produced fundamental knowledge that can be used to select fuel compositions and engine designs that will maximize this benefit. This information has been disseminated through more than 20 peer-reviewed publications, more than 30 conference presentations, and 5 freely available internet databases and web tools. This project also provided educational opportunities to 17 students at the high school, undergraduate, and graduate levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Projected Network Model of Online Disinformation Cascades

Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Toward Well-Provenanced Computer System Benchmarking: An Update

This report provides an update on the current design, implementation, and usage of bueno, a Python framework enabled by container technology that supports gradations of reproducibility for wellprovenanced benchmarking of sequential and parallel programs. The ultimate goal of the bueno project is to provide convenient access to mechanisms that aid in the automated generation, collection, and dissemination of data relevant for experimental reproducibility in computer system benchmarking.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Lessons Learned-Analytical Laboratory Construction Modifications

The purpose of this document is to disseminate lessons learned from the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Building 1090 modification project and other analytical laboratory related construction projects. The following sections summarize lessons learned at various phases of the project.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A hierarchical evaluation framework for assessing climate simulations relevant to the energy-water-land nexus (Final Report)

The overarching goal was to construct a hierarchy of new and well-tested metrics and analysis tools that support both fundamental and use-inspired research. Motivating this goal was a convergence of needs from climate scientists and stakeholders alike for a systematic, robust framework of model evaluation and diagnosis to provide scientific insights, inform model development, support best practices for the use of climate model outputs, and facilitate communication of climate information in the evolving landscapes of multi-model, multi-resolution, and large ensemble simulations that generate terabytes of data for any single climate run. Steps toward attaining these goals benefited from expertise and established capability of the project team, which included leadership of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), development of hierarchical model evaluation approaches, and successful research in the analysis and diagnosis of climate model skill, as well as the understanding and modeling of regional climate processes in North America. As part of the overarching goal, the project worked to disseminate a suite of methodologies, algorithms, and software components that the wider community can employ to advance climate science and applications. With rigorous demonstration, the evaluation framework and the mix of standard and high risk / high reward approaches helped form the basis for future development of a computationally enabled user-friendly system for community use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Boundary Layer Controls on the Shallow-to-Deep Cumulus Transition (Final Technical Report)

This project advanced our understanding of the processes governing cumulus cloud formation and provides an improved observational basis for validating earth system models. To be specific, the project used laser- and radar-remote sensors to examine the physical properties of updrafts that rise from earth’s surface and initiate clouds deeper in the atmosphere. These updrafts comprise “thermals” and “plumes” and occur at small spatial and temporal scales (e.g., 10s of minutes, 100s of meters). These small scales preclude explicit representation in most earth system and climate models, and thus necessitate “sub-grid-scale” parameterization of updraft processes. The innovation of this project was to directly measure the size, shape, strength and water vapor content of these updrafts with Doppler and Raman lidars, respectively, and to link these updraft properties to cloud processes using vertically pointed weather radars. The resulting data sets comprise 100s of thousands of updrafts and thousands of clouds, which far exceeds previous efforts, and thereby provides a robust statistical and physical representation of these processes. From these large datasets the project produced a sequence of scientific analyses that: (1) Elucidate how variations in the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer control shallow cumulus convection, (2) Quantify the upward transport of water vapor to cloud base via thermals and plumes, (3) Validate large-eddy simulations of updrafts and shallow convective clouds, (4) Demonstrate a size-to-strength relationship between updraft width and updraft speed, and (5) Demonstrate how updrafts interact with the stability at the top of the convective boundary layer to modulate the depth and vigor of convective clouds. These results have been disseminated via several published journal articles, academic theses, and conference presentations. Collectively these results contribute to the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program’s goal to “improve understanding of the key cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation processes that affect the Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle, particularly processes that limit the predictive ability of regional and global earth system models”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recommended Practices for Managing Induced Seismicity Risk Associated with Geologic Carbon Storage

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method to help reduce or eliminate atmospheric CO 2 emissions. The sequestered CO 2 is originally captured from the atmosphere or from a stationary industrial source and subsequently injected into a deep subsurface porous rock formation. To facilitate the successful deployment of field scale carbon storage projects, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing tools and protocols for defensible, science-based frameworks to quantify and mitigate risks associated with the long-term storage of CO 2 . This protocol specifically addresses the risk of induced seismicity due to injection in a geologic carbon storage (GCS) site. This integrated and risk-based protocol is a product of the U.S. DOE Fossil Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a multi-year collaborative research effort of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). These recommended practices describe a set of 7 steps to evaluate, manage, communicate, and mitigate the risk of induced seismicity at GCS sites. The base methodology of the recommended practices follows a framework similar to the Protocol for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems (Majer et al., 2012), developed for the Geothermal Technology Office of the U.S. DOE. These recommended practices present a framework to systematically assess the induced seismicity risk and quantify the associated uncertainties. These recommendations are based on current research and are sufficiently general to allow for modification and application to a variety of different types of sites. The substance of the recommended practices contained herein includes both technical and non-technical issues, and covers all operational stages of the GCS project lifecycle. They start at the preliminary risk assessment phase, continue through site assessment and characterization, include best practice communication and seismic monitoring plan methodologies, discuss the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard and risk, and closes with an exploration of operational management plans, which conclude when the induced seismicity risk abates back to background level. The focus of these recommendations is on actively managing the risks associated with induced seismicity by developing an actionable risk management plan that starts at the project proposal stage and continues through site closure through an iterative assessment and improvement process. The audience of this document is expected to include all interested stakeholders (e.g., operators, project developers, regulators, and the general public) and is expressly written to be accessible to this broad range of partners. This document is intended to disseminate knowledge gained through recent advances in the science of induced seismicity hazard and risk assessments, to provide updates based on recent experience gained by similar corollary injection-induced seismicity cases, and most importantly to establish a uniform framework to carry out a successful induced seismicity risk management plan for carbon storage projects in the future. These recommendations do not directly address any domestic or international regulations or standards. A complementary NRAP report makes recommendations for the assessment and management of environmental subsurface risks associated with unwanted fluid migration at GCS sites (Thomas et al., 2021) and should be referred to in order to address those additional GCS site risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗