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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Parametric Modeling and Economic Analysis of a 2MW th 3-Stream sCO 2 Heat Exchanger

Here, this paper presents the design and cost optimization of a novel 2MW th 3-stream sCO2 plate-fin heat exchanger. This heat exchanger design is unique in that it uses reduced metal oxide particle-to-sCO2 heat exchanger for cost-effective energy storage applications. The design uses low velocity, laminar air as the re-oxidizing reactant to transfer the heat of the re-oxidizing reaction to a sCO2 power loop. The design of the heat exchanger is based on a 2-D, 3-fluid plate/fin heat transfer model. The model parameterizes the size, shape, and number of passages of the heat exchanger to calculate the temperature profile, pressure drop, and fluid velocities of all three fluids. Global heat exchanger parameters such as the effectiveness and total heat transferred to the sCO2 are then calculated for overall performance. Due to the value and increased use of sCO2 heat exchangers in power cycles, a cost model of the system based on the unique high temperature/high pressure operating conditions was created using quotes from reference projects and market analysis. These quoted air-to-sCO2 heat exchangers are then processed using multiple weighting factors pertinent to heat exchanger design, including heat exchanger type, maximum temperature, differential pressures, fluids, duty, and more. These factors are then used in an exponential function in order to generate a parameterized cost curve. The design and cost of the heat exchanger are then optimized using the SMPSO genetic algorithm in Python. The optimization objectives for the system are to maximize the overall system effectiveness, including an air recuperator for preheating, and to minimize unit costs. Additional constraints are added to the system for the sCO2 and air pressure drops, air velocity to reduce particle entrainment, and the length and volume of the heat exchanger.

Cost Model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermodynamic analysis and optimization of supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycles for use with low-grade geothermal heat sources

The transcritical carbon dioxide Rankine cycle has emerged as an alternative for power generation in low-grade heat applications. However, the low heat rejection temperatures required for condensing the carbon dioxide is almost prohibitive for many locations. A simple solution is the adoption of a supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle which does not need such low temperature heat sinks. This power cycle has been poorly studied previously in low-grade heat applications. Therefore, with the aim of determining the performance and feasibility of the supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle from thermodynamic viewpoint, using a low-grade geothermal heat source, this paper presents a comparative thermodynamic analysis between four different supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycles. For this purpose, detailed models were developed and solved by coupling the thermodynamic model with the thermal-hydraulic model of a Printed Circuit Heat Exchanger. Subsequently, simulations of a base case, a parametric analysis, and an optimization using Genetic Algorithms, were carried out. Results show that there is a combination of operating conditions that maximizes the electrical output of the system. Besides, some values of the minimum pressure of the cycles can increase substantially the precooler cooling water pumping power. At the optimum design point, using a 20 kg/s geothermal brine stream at 150 °C as heat source with a minimum allowable reinjection temperature of 70 °C, the Intercooled Recuperated Brayton Cycle achieved the highest electric power output, energy and exergy efficiencies, obtaining values of 779.99 kW, 11.51%, and 52.49%, respectively. The other feasible alternatives were the Recuperated Brayton Cycle, the Simple Brayton Cycle and the Intercooled Brayton Cycle, ranked, in that order.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Phase-2 Upgrade of the CMS Data Acquisition

The High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) will start operating in 2027 after the third Long Shutdown (LS3), and is designed to provide an ultimate instantaneous luminosity of 7:5 × 10$^{34}$ cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$, at the price of extreme pileup of up to 200 interactions per crossing. The number of overlapping interactions in HL-LHC collisions, their density, and the resulting intense radiation environment, warrant an almost complete upgrade of the CMS detector. The upgraded CMS detector will be read out by approximately fifty thousand highspeed front-end optical links at an unprecedented data rate of up to 80 Tb/s, for an average expected total event size of approximately 8 - 10 MB. Following the present established design, the CMS trigger and data acquisition system will continue to feature two trigger levels, with only one synchronous hardware-based Level-1 Trigger (L1), consisting of custom electronic boards and operating on dedicated data streams, and a second level, the High Level Trigger (HLT), using software algorithms running asynchronously on standard processors and making use of the full detector data to select events for offline storage and analysis. The upgraded CMS data acquisition system will collect data fragments for Level-1 accepted events from the detector back-end modules at a rate up to 750 kHz, aggregate fragments corresponding to individual Level- 1 accepts into events, and distribute them to the HLT processors where they will be filtered further. Events accepted by the HLT will be stored permanently at a rate of up to 7.5 kHz. This paper describes the baseline design of the DAQ and HLT systems for the Phase-2 of CMS.

Badaro, Gilbert↗
DOE OSTI2020

First Cosmology Results using Supernovae Ia from the Dark Energy Survey: Survey Overview, Performance, and Supernova Spectroscopy

We present details on the observing strategy, data-processing techniques, and spectroscopic targeting algorithms for the first three years of operation for the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN). This five-year program using the Dark Energy Camera mounted on the 4 m Blanco telescope in Chile was designed to discover and follow supernovae (SNe) Ia over a wide redshift range (0.05 < z < 1.2) to measure the equation-of-state parameter of dark energy. We describe the SN program in full: strategy, observations, data reduction, spectroscopic follow-up observations, and classification. From three seasons of data, we have discovered 12,015 likely SNe, 308 of which have been spectroscopically confirmed, including 251 SNe Ia over a redshift range of 0.017 < z < 0.85. We determine the effective spectroscopic selection function for our sample and use it to investigate the redshift-dependent bias on the distance moduli of SNe Ia we have classified. The data presented here are used for the first cosmology analysis by DES-SN (“DES-SN3YR”), the results of which are given in Dark Energy Survey Collaboration et al. The 489 spectra that are used to define the DES-SN3YR sample are publicly available at https://des.ncsa.illinois.edu/releases/sn.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Considerations regarding the Use of Computer Vision Machine Learning in Safety-Related or Risk-Significant Applications in Nuclear Power Plants

With the advancements made to date in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), significant potential exists to utilize AI capabilities for nuclear power plant (NPP) applications. AI can replicate human decision making and it is usually faster and more accurate than humans. For implementations that impact critical NPP applications (e.g., safety-related or non-safety systems that potentially affect overall plant risk), a deeper safety analysis of the AI methods is necessary. AI applied to NPP operations could resemble the use of digital I&C (DI&C) because such applications involve digital computer hardware and custom-designed software that input plant data, execute complex software algorithms, and output the results to a system or licensed human operator to potentially provoke an action. For AI methods to be compliant with current safety requirements for DI&C, AI compatibility must be evaluated, and AI-related gaps may exist that prevent the prompt deployment of AI in NPPs. This effort aims to evaluate how example AI technologies align with the DI&C safety framework, and discusses how they could be analyzed, modeled, tested, and validated in a manner similar to typical DI&C technologies. Because AI is a broad field that encompasses areas such as machine learning (ML), natural language processing, and computer vision, this research focused on a subset of methods categorized as the computer vision ML (CVML) methods. This report explores two CVML use cases, gauge reading and fire watch, considered relevant to the DI&C standards, as they could play a safety-critical role. For the gauge reading use case, a CVML-enabled technology that can read gauges at oblique angles is utilized. For the fire watch use case, a CVML-enabled technology is utilized that migrates fire watch from a manual (human) approach to automated fire detection. These use cases are mainly intended to give context to the CVML system discussion. This effort assumes the worst-case scenario, with the CVML system being used to replace a safety-related or risk-significant system, thus requiring evaluation. Evaluating CVML against most of the relevant safety requirements for DI&C yielded several CVML-specific considerations due to the uniqueness of its characteristics in comparison with typical DI&C systems. For example, CVML models often employ commonly used (open-source) datasets, and it is not always possible to determine the level of overlap among open-source datasets. Therefore, the independence of the developed CVML models when demonstrating diversity is questionable, therefore creating vulnerability to common cause failure (CCF). The design verification process is also impacted since the data overlap could result in overestimation of the software validation and verification (V&V) performance results. Section 2 of this report evaluates a list of the identified CVML-specific characteristics and discusses the resulting considerations and potential solutions in the context of each referenced requirement. A summation is provided in Section 3. This report is not to be used as a guideline. It was developed to identify and consider issues in the implementation of ML technologies used to augment activities that may have a bearing on plant operation. The report draws parallels to the use of DI&C technologies, for which many standards are available to guide their use in nuclear plant operation. It considers the technologies and some of the potential implications of their use in safety-related applications but is not intended to address regulatory or licensing related issues.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gradient-Informed Design Optimization of Select Nuclear Systems

In this work, we present a gradient-informed design optimization of nuclear reactor core components based on neutronics objectives with both continuous and discrete materials. The main argument in favor of using gradient-informed design optimization is that it scales well with increasing dimensionality of the design space. First, a challenge problem with 121 free parameters is solved with a gradient-informed method and then with a genetic algorithm. Then, a challenge problem to optimize the flux profile of a simplified assembly with eight axial zones is solved. Both challenge problems are solved using directly calculated derivatives from Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) in the SCALE package. Furthermore, we demonstrate how a discrete optimization problem—selection of materials for 121 voxels—can be lifted into a continuous problem with mixed materials. In the continuous space, adjoint-based gradients are well-defined, and gradient descent is applicable. Then, a forcing function is introduced that with the selection of an appropriately sized hyperparameter can be used to guide the optimized continuous solution back into a discrete solution. This paper presents an account of the challenges that were faced when applying a gradient-informed optimization algorithm using a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the gradient information and compares a gradient descent optimization method to a genetic algorithm optimization of the same geometry. Overall, this work demonstrates the potential use of adjoint-based gradient calculations in design optimization of nuclear systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Behind the Meter Storage for Electric Vehicle Charging, Electrochemical and Thermal Energy Storage, and Solar Photovoltaic

In response to the potentially large and irregular demand from EVs, along with changing load profiles from buildings with on-site generation, utilities are evaluating multiple options for managing dynamic loads, including time-of-use pricing, demand charges, battery storage, and curtailment of variable generation. Buildings, as well as commercial, public, and workplace EV charging operations, can use a combination of electrochemical battery storage and thermal energy storage coupled with on-site generation to manage energy costs as well as provide resiliency and reliability for EV charging and building energy loads. We are completing a behind the meter storage analysis that focuses on determining the optimal system designs and energy flows for thermal and electrochemical behind the meter storage with on-site solar photovoltaic (PV) generation enabling electric vehicle charging in various climates, building types, and utility rate structures. In completing this analysis, we have developed a tool that combines existing battery models via the System Advisor Model (SAM) and building modeling software via EnergyPlus into a single interface. This tool allows us to simulate a building with a detailed battery model to properly size the battery, thermal energy storage, and solar PV systems to maximize profit for the system owner. This also allows us to assess how the battery degrades under various supervisory control dispatch algorithms to control charging/discharging; we can also see how thermal energy storage is created and used to complement the battery to reduce thermal loads in the building. With this project, we can analyze new batteries that are designed specifically for energy storage, rather than designed to be extremely energy dense for electric vehicle applications, using battery lifetime models from other national labs and the existing SAM battery model, which has detailed lifetime and degradation parameters. We can also assess novel thermal storage technologies by integrating them into the whole building energy simulation program EnergyPlus. Because the model calls both SAM and EnergyPlus, required inputs need to be compatible for both models. These inputs include, on a high-level, the following: weather files, building and electric vehicle load profiles, electricity rate tariff information, and system cost information for the stationary battery, solar PV, and thermal storage system. The various buildings we are studying for this analysis are retail big-box grocery store, commercial office building, fleet vehicle depot and operations facility, multi-family residential, and electric vehicle charging station. For these different applications, the battery and thermal storage will be dispatched differently, and the various technologies are sized differently to optimize cost.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of high-dielectric constant compounds from statistical design

Abstract The discovery of high-dielectric materials is crucial to increasing the efficiency of electronic devices and batteries. Here, we report three previously unexplored materials with very high dielectric constants (69 < ϵ < 101) and large band gaps (2.9 < E g (eV) < 5.5) obtained by screening materials databases using statistical optimization algorithms aided by artificial neural networks (ANN). Two of these new dielectrics are mixed-anion compounds (Eu 5 SiCl 6 O 4 and HoClO) and are shown to be thermodynamically stable against common semiconductors via phase diagram analysis. We also uncovered four other materials with relatively large dielectric constants (20 < ϵ < 40) and band gaps (2.3 < E g (eV) < 2.7). While the ANN training-data are obtained from the Materials Project, the search-space consists of materials from the Open Quantum Materials Database (OQMD)—demonstrating a successful implementation of cross-database materials design. Overall, we report the dielectric properties of 17 materials calculated using ab initio calculations, that were selected in our design workflow. The dielectric materials with high-dielectric properties predicted in this work open up further experimental research opportunities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parallel sorting algorithm classification: is manual instrumentation necessary?

Understanding parallel algorithms is crucial for accelerating scientific simulations on complex, distributed memory, high-performance computers. Modern algorithm classification approaches learn semantics directly from source code to differentiate between algorithms, however, accessing source code is not always possible. We can learn about parallel algorithms from observing their performance, as programs running the same algorithms and using the same hardware should exhibit similar performance characteristics. We present an approach to learn algorithm classes from parallel performance data directly in order to classify algorithms without access to the source code. We extend previous work to enable classifying parallel sorting algorithms using automatic instrumentation instead of requiring manual region annotations in the source code. In this work, we design and demonstrate a study for classification of parallel sorting algorithms using parallel performance data collected from automatic instrumentation, and evaluate the performance of our new methodology on classification. We leverage Caliper to collect the performance data, Thicket for our exploratory data analysis (EDA), and PyTorch and Scikit-learn to evaluate the effectiveness of random forests, support vector machines (SVMs), decision trees, neural networks, and logistic regressions on parallel performance data. Additionally, we study noise in parallel performance data, whether the removal of noise and pre-processing of the data is necessary to accurately classify parallel sorting algorithms, and determine the effectiveness of features created from performance data. In conclusion, we demonstrate classification accuracy for these five different models of up to 97.7% across four different parallel algorithm classes.

Algorithm Classification↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prong Segmentation using Point Set Transformers in Multiple View Neutrino Detectors

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino experiment studying neutrino oscillations by detecting neutrinos from the NuMI beam at Fermilab. Its physics analysis relies on accurate prong segmentation, which involves matching each hit to its source particle and identifying the particle type. This task has commonly been addressed using a combination of traditional clustering algorithms and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). However, NOvA’s detector design presents data as two sparse and decoupled 2D images (XZ and YZ views) rather than a native 3D representation, posing a significant challenge for traditional CNN-based models. In this talk, we propose a novel neural network based on the Point Set Transformer. By treating detector hits as sparse point clouds and implementing a cross-view attention mechanism, our model enables efficient information mixing between both views. Evaluated on NOvA simulated data, our model achieves superior accuracy while requiring significantly fewer computational resources compared to other models. Furthermore, the model demonstrates great performance when applied to Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) data, which shows its potential as a universal prong segmentation algorithm for multiple view neutrino detectors.

Liu, Jiaxi [UC, Irvine]↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Novel Algorithm for CAD to CSG Conversion in McCAD

Modeling and simulation lie at the heart of the design process of any nuclear application. An accurate representation of the radiation environment ensures not only the feasibility of new technologies, but it also aids in operation, maintenance, and even decommissioning. With increasingly complex designs, high-fidelity models have become a necessity for design maturity. McCAD has been under development for many years at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) to facilitate the process of generating suitable models for nuclear analyses. In this paper, an overview of the major advances in the new version of the code is presented. A novel conversion algorithm has proven to be robust in significantly reducing the processing time to generate radiation transport models, making it easier to iterate on design details. A first-of-a-kind capability to generate hierarchical void cells is also discussed with preliminary analysis showing performance gains for particle tracking.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Design Optimization for Fast Reactors. Part I: Workflow Development and Case Study for Small LFR District Energy Application

The nuclear industry is developing small reactor designs that can target a variety of deployment locations and energy products. Smaller nuclear designs have traditionally struggled to handle the steep trade-offs between size and cost that have historically incentivized large reactors. This motivates computational optimization of small reactors to minimize costs and quantify the trade-off between size and cost. In this paper, the cost/size trade-off for a small fast reactor is derived using a multi-objective genetic algorithm optimization, with steady-state, transient, and cost analysis of the fast reactor being performed. Specifically, the method is demonstrated on a small 10- to 120-MW(thermal) U-Pu-Zr–fueled lead-cooled fast reactor with a 10-year core life for district energy applications, which can have a thermal load compatible with this range. The results reinforced that fast reactor cores at the lower end of this power range suffer cost penalties due to critical mass considerations. It was found that high power density cores with strong reactivity swings and many control rods were favored over designing to minimize reactivity swing. Furthermore, this contrasts with some traditional configurations designed using engineering judgment and demonstrates that optimizers can find nontraditional but realistic solutions, along with demonstrating the value of incorporating cost functions into whole-reactor design optimization.

Fast reactor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fail-Safe Logic Design Strategies Within Modern FPGA Architectures

Fail-safe computing refers to computing systems that revert to a non-operational safe state when a fault occurs. In this paper, we investigate a circuit level technique as mitigation for single event upsets (SEUs) and fault injection attacks on field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), and analyze the effectiveness of the technique as a fail-safe monitor for an encryption algorithm. The propagation of fault effects through FPGA primitives including lookup tables (LUTs) and programmable interconnect points (PIPs) is assessed within an FPGA architecture created using an open source tool, and validated using fault injection experiments on an FPGA. The analysis reveals additional vulnerabilities exist within reconfigurable architectures over those in equivalent fail-safe application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), thus requiring a more elaborate network of redundant circuits and checking logic. The configuration memory bits (CMBs), which configure routing and designate logic functions within the LUTs of the FPGA, add complexity to fail-safe design strategies by introducing additional fault conditions and fault propagation paths. A resource-efficient fail-safe circuit design technique called DEsign for Fail-safe in reCONfigurable systems (DEFCON) is proposed. The benefits and limitations associated with DEFCON are described in the context of fault injection experiments carried out as simulations and in FPGA hardware.

Bhakta, Priya A. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque↗
DOE OSTI2023

MRT 7365: Power flow physics and key physics phenomena

The Z accelerator at Sandia National Laboratories conducts z-pinch experiments at 26 MA in support of DOE missions in stockpile stewardship, dynamic materials, fusion, and other basic sciences. Increasing the current delivered to the z-pinch would extend our reach in each of these disciplines. To achieve increases in current and accelerator efficiency, a fraction of Z’s shots are set aside for research into transmission-line power flow. These shots, with supporting simulations and theory, are incorporated into this Advanced Diagnostics milestone report. The efficiency of Z is reduced as some portion of the total current is shunted across the transmission-line gaps prior to the load. This is referred to as “current loss”. Electrode plasmas have long been implicated in this process, so the bulk of dedicated power-flow experiments are designed to measure the plasma environment. The experimental analyses are enhanced by simulations conducted using realistic hardware and Z voltage pulses. In the same way that diagnostics are continually being improved for sensitivity and resolution, the modeling capability is continually being improved to provide faster and more realistic simulations. The specifics of the experimental hardware, diagnostics, simulations, and algorithm developments are provided in this report. The combined analysis of simulation and data confirms that electrode plasmas have the most detrimental impact on current delivery. Experiments over the last three years have tested the theoretical current-loss mechanisms of enhanced ion current, plasma gap closure, and Hall-related current. These mechanisms are not mutually exclusive and may be coincident in the final feed as well as in upstream transmission lines. The final-feed geometries tested here, however, observe lower-density plasmas without dominant ion currents which is consistent with a Hall-related current. The picture of plasma formation and transport formed from experiment and simulation is informing hardware designs being fielded on Z now and being proposed for the Next-Generation Pulsed Power (NGPP) facility. In this picture, the strong magnetic fields that heat the electrodes above particle emission thresholds also confine the charged particles near the surface. Some portion of the plasmas thus formed is transported into the transmission-line gap under the force of the electric field, with aid from plasma instabilities. The gap plasmas are then transported towards the load by a cross-field drift, where they accumulate and contribute to a likely Hall-related cross-gap current. The achievements in experimental execution, model validation, and physical analysis presented in this report set the stage for continued progress in power flow and load diagnostics on Z. The planned shot schedule for Z and Mykonos will provide data for extrapolation to higher current to ensure the predicted performance and efficiency of a NGPP facility.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupled model for liquid lithium plasma facing components

Numerical analysis provides the design choice and operating window of liquid metal Plasma Facing Components (PFC) concepts. Coupled analysis of boundary plasma together with the surrounding boundary structures is required. Here, to achieve this goal, PPPL is developing a comprehensive multi-physics model for modeling of PFCs in fusion devices. The model includes the fluid-kinetic code SOLPS-ITER and the flow and heat transfer code CFX from ANSYS. SOLPS-ITER was augmented with a liquid metal boundary condition algorithm, allowing direct two-way coupling of the plasma analysis with the two-dimensional analytical slab flow model which includes heat convection in the liquid metal PFC. The target heat flux resulting from this coupled analysis is used as a boundary condition for detailed 3D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Magneto Hydro Dynamics (MHD) and heat transfer analysis. A new formulation of MHD equations is introduced in the numerical procedure ensuring current conservation of the discretized equations. Results of the 3D analysis are used for final validation of the coupled model. A PFC design where a porous wall is used to stabilize the liquid metal surface, while MHD drive is used to push the liquid metal flow inside the PFC, will be investigated in the regimes where vapor shielding is created for enhanced volumetric plasma heat dissipation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Measurement-Driven Eigenenergy Estimation with Classical Shadows

Quantum algorithms exploiting real-time evolution under a target Hamiltonian have demonstrated remarkable efficiency in extracting key spectral information. However, the broader potential of these methods, particularly beyond ground-state calculations, is underexplored. In this work, we introduce the framework of multiobservable dynamic mode decomposition (MODMD), which combines the observable dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), a measurement-driven eigensolver tailored for near-term implementation, with classical shadow tomography. MODMD leverages random scrambling in the classical shadow technique to construct, with exponentially reduced resource requirements, a signal subspace that encodes rich spectral information. Notably, we replace typical Hadamard-test circuits with a protocol designed to predict low-rank observables, thereby broadening the use of classical shadow tomography for predicting many low-rank observables. We establish theoretical guarantees on the spectral approximation from MODMD, taking into account distinct sources of error. In the ideal case, we prove that the spectral error scales as exp (−Δ⁢𝐸⁢𝑡 max ), where Δ⁢𝐸 is the Hamiltonian spectral gap and 𝑡 max is the maximal simulation time. This analysis provides a rigorous justification of the rapid convergence observed across simulations. To demonstrate the utility of our framework, we consider its application to fundamental tasks, such as determining the low-lying, i.e., ground or excited, energies of representative many-body systems. Our work paves the path for efficient designs of measurement-driven algorithms on near-term and early fault-tolerant quantum devices.

quantum algorithms & computation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Incorporating the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology in a Performance Assessment Model - 20403

The evidence of climate change is increasingly well-documented and impacts should be incorporated in performance assessment studies. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. Probabilistic modeling is a core requirement for quantifying uncertainty and evaluating its impacts. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment because of the existence of uncertainty is contradictory to good modeling practices - the most uncertain issues and parameters require the most attention in effective probabilistic modeling. Excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. In this work we develop methods to use the output from hydrologic models and analysis of historical aerial imagery to quantify and implement the impacts of climate change on hydrologic processes at a nuclear waste site in West Valley, New York. Specifically, we used the HELP (Hydraulic Performance of Landfill Performance) model to characterize key hydrologic processes under both current and future climate conditions to assess the impacts of changing climate on hydrology. A suite of previous climatic models were reviewed and synthesized to produce a cohesive representation of the current state of knowledge of the impact of climate change on important model inputs such as precipitation. Output from the HELP simulations was coupled to the GoldSim model that was used to develop the Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) approach through the application of a novel 'nearest neighbor' technique. First, several thousand realizations were generated from the HELP model using a Latin Hypercube experimental design to ensure adequate coverage of the parameter space of explanatory variables used to drive HELP. For example, porosity is a physical parameter that is used as an input to both HELP and the GoldSim PA model. We then ran sensitivity analysis (SA) algorithms on the output of HELP for each of the responses of interest. For each predictor, each time we build an SA model we get a different value for the sensitivity index (SI). From the collection of all the SA models, the average was computed among all of the SIs to represent the predictor within the context of the nearest neighbor approach. That is, we conduct SA on each HELP outcome for each scenario. This gives us parameter sensitivity indices for the outcomes. We average the parameter sensitivity indices across the outcomes to get the average SI for a scenario. For each realization that is generated from the Goldsim PA model, Goldsim generates random values for physical/empirical parameters that HELP uses as well. For each vector of physical/empirical parameters that Goldsim generates, the vector from the 5,000 HELP runs that is most 'similar' to the Goldsim vector is computed using the nearest neighbor approach. In this context 'similar' means minimization of the SA-weighted sum of the absolute differences among the 5,000 values computed for this statistic, where each value corresponds to a different HELP realization. In order to account for the impacts of climate change, this process was repeated using the spatially downscaled future climate projections. For each of the key parameters of interest, it was assumed that a linear change depicted the relationship between the values for the present day and those for 2100. In this way, the climatically-driven changes in key parameters used to inform the GoldSim model are quantified and incorporated into the PA model output for the future. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Vulnerability Analysis for Cascading Failures of Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a cascading failure simulation (CFS) method and a hybrid machine learning method for vulnerability analysis of integrated power-gas systems (IPGSs). The CFS method is designed to study the propagating process of cascading failures between the two systems, generating data for machine learning with initial states randomly sampled. The proposed method considers generator and gas well ramping, transmission line and gas pipeline tripping, island issue handling and load shedding strategies. Then, a hybrid machine learning model with a combined random forest (RF) classification and regression algorithms is proposed to investigate the impact of random initial states on the vulnerability metrics of IPGSs. Extensive case studies are carried out on three test IPGSs to verify the proposed models and algorithms. Simulation results show that the proposed models and algorithms can achieve high accuracy for the vulnerability analysis of IPGSs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗