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At least 217 records · Page 12

Bayesian inference of nuclear symmetry energy from measured and imagined neutron skin thickness in Sn 116 , 118 , 120 , 122 , 124 , 130 , 132 , Pb 208 , and Ca 48

The neutron skin thickness Δr np in heavy nuclei has been known as one of the most sensitive terrestrial probes of the nuclear symmetry energy E sym (ρ) around $\frac{2}{3}$ of the saturation density ρ 0 of nuclear matter. Existing neutron skin data mostly from hadronic observables suffer from large uncertainties and their extraction from experiments are often strongly model dependent. While waiting eagerly for the promised model-independent and high-precision neutron skin data for 208 Pb and 48 Ca from the parity-violating electron scattering experiments (PREX-II and CREX at JLab as well as MREX at MESA), within the Bayesian statistical framework using the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the slope parameter L of the nuclear symmetry energy at ρ 0 from imagined Δr np ( 208 Pb)=0.15, 0.20, and 0.30 fm with a 1σ error bar of 0.02, 0.04, and 0.06 fm, respectively, as well as Δr np ( 48 Ca)=0.12, 0.15, and 0.25 fm, with different 1σ error bar of 0.01 and 0.02 fm, respectively. The results are compared with the PDFs of L inferred using the same approach from the available Δr np data for 116, 118, 120, 122, 124, 130, 132 Sn from hadronic probes. They are also compared with results from a recent Bayesian analysis of the radius and tidal deformability data of canonical neutron stars from GW170817 and NICER. The neutron skin data for Sn isotopes gives L = 45.5 $^{+ 26.5}_{-21.6}$ MeV surrounding its mean value or L = 53 . 4 $^{+ 18.6}_{ -29.5}$ MeV surrounding its maximum a posteriori value, respectively, with the latter smaller than but consistent with the L = 66 $^{+ 12}_{-20}$ MeV from the neutron star data within their 68% confidence intervals. We found that Δr np = 0.17 –0.18 fm in 208 Pb with an error bar of about 0.02 fm leads to a PDF of L compatible with that from analyzing the Sn data. To provide additionally useful information on L extracted from the Δr np of Sn isotopes, the experimental error bar of Δr np in 208 Pb should be at least smaller than 0.06 fm aimed by some current experiments. In addition, the Δr np ( 48 Ca) needs to be larger than 0.15 fm but smaller than 0.25 fm to be compatible with the Sn and/or neutron star results. To further improve our current knowledge about L and distinguish its PDFs in the examples considered, even higher precisions leading to significantly less than ±20 MeV error bars for L at 68% confidence level are necessary.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Platform Of Optimal Experiment Management

The platform of optimal experiment management, POEM, powered with automated machine learning to accelerate the discovery of optimal solutions, and automatically guide the design of experiments to be evaluated. POEM currently supports 1) random model explorations for experiment design, 2) sparse grid model explorations with Gaussian Polynomial Chaos surrogate model to accelerate experiment design ,3) time-dependent model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to identify the importance features for experiment design, 4) model calibrations via Bayesian inference to integrate experiments to improve model performance, and 5) Bayesian optimization for optimal experimental design. In addition, POEM aims to simplify the process of experimental design for users, enabling them to analyze the data with minimal human intervention, and improving the technological output from research activities.

Wang, Congjian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I↗

Force Balance Model Assessment for Mechanistic Prediction of Sliding Bubble Velocity in Vertical Subcooled Boiling Flow

The bubble sliding after departing from nucleation site is frequently observed in flow boiling systems and, the crucial impact on wall heat transfer has been evidenced through many experiments. As a result, the heat transfer modeling associated with sliding bubble has become one of the subjects of great attention in CFD boiling heat transfer community. The modeling efforts are primarily aimed at improving the existing Heat Flux Partitioning (HFP) model via the implementation of sliding bubble-induced heat transfer. The performance of HFP model depends inherently on the fidelity of sub-models used to predict the fundamental bubble parameters (e.g., bubble departure/lift-off diameter). In the same context, the accurate prediction of sliding bubble parameters (e.g., sliding bubble growth, sliding bubble velocity) is essential to achieving the successful heat transfer modeling associated with sliding bubble. Of many sliding bubble parameters, this paper deals with the sliding bubble velocity. Specifically, the force balance model was assessed in view of the sliding bubble velocity prediction. The parametric effect of key sub-models (e.g., drag force, bubble growth models) used in the force balance equation was investigated. The experimental data from Maity (2000) and Yoo et al. (2016) were used for demonstrating the model predictive performance. It was found that the force balance model proposed in this study was able to predict well the bubble sliding velocity based on the accurate prediction of bubble growth during sliding. The predictive performance was proven with the experimental data measured under various subcooled boiling conditions of both water and refrigerant (NOVEC-7000) flowing upward in vertical channels.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Potential Predictability of U.S. Summer Climate with "Perfect" Soil Moisture

The potential predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation over the United States continent was assessed for a GCM forced by observed sea surface temperatures and an estimate of observed ground soil moisture contents. The latter was obtained by substituting the GCM simulated precipitation, which is used to drive the GCM's land-surface component, with observed pentad-mean precipitation at each time step of the model's integration. With this substitution, the simulated soil moisture correlates well with an independent estimate of observed soil moisture in all seasons over the entire US continent. Significant enhancements on the predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation were found in boreal late spring and summer over the US continent. Anomalous pattern correlations of precipitation and surface-air temperature over the US continent in the June-July-August season averaged for the 1979-2000 period increased from 0.01 and 0.06 for the GCM simulations without precipitation substitution to 0.23 and 0.3 1, respectively, for the simulations with precipitation substitution. Results provide an estimate for the limits of potential predictability if soil moisture variability is to be perfectly predicted. However, this estimate may be model dependent, and needs to be substantiated by other modeling groups.

Yang, Fanglin↗

An investigation of resonant waves in a numerical model of an observed sudden stratospheric warming

A global quasi-linear time-dependent model that is able to represent the interaction of a single planetary Rossby wave with the zonal flow is used to investigate several questions concerning the role of resonance in the major stratospheric warming of February 1979. Special attention is given to the examination of the degree of dependence of the warming development on the phase speed of the wave and the initial mean flow. The results indicate that the preconditioning occurred early in the month, just after the minor sudden warming around February 5-7, and that a fairly broad range of eastward traveling phase speeds was capable of generating a warming. The model sensitivity tests indicate that the warming simulation has a weak dependence on the frequency of wave forcing and on the day used for initializing the basic state.

Smith, Anne K.↗

Vertical cloud structure models for the NTRZ EQZ, SEB and STRZ of Jupiter

Latitude-dependent models of the vertically inhomogeneous Jovian cloud structure are presented. The models assume an atmospheric composition with (CH4)/(H2) = 2.0 x .003, (He)/(H2) = 0.11 and (NH3)/(H2) = 2.0 x .0004 consistent with the Voyager IRIS measurements and employ refractive indices appropriate for ammonia ice particles and a photochemical stratospheric aerosol layer. The free parameters of the models are determined by fitting the results of multiple, scratching calculations to the near-infrared center and limb spectra of Clark and McCord and the center-to-limb 6190, 6350, 7250, 7500, 8900 and 9500 A photometric measurements of West. The resulting synthetic center-to-limb profiles are in excellent agreement with the observations. Of the regions studied the tropical zones are the most similar, with the observed differences explained by variations in the vertical extent of the cloudy layers. The Equatorial Zone is a unique region with denser NH3 clouds than either of the tropical zones. At visible and near-infrared wavelengths the belt-zone contrasts can be explained by opacity differences. The optical depth of the stratospheric aerosol layer is larger in a belt, while the tropospheric clouds are deeper and thinner.

Carlson, B. E.↗

Initial assessment of the effects of energetic ion injections in the magnetosphere due to the transport of satellite power system components from low earth orbit to geosynchronous earth orbit

Potentially serious environmental effects exist when cargo orbital transfer vehicle (COTV) ion propulsion is used on the scale proposed in the preliminary definition studies of the Satellite Power System. These effects of the large scale injections of ion propulsion exhaust in the plasmasphere and in the outer magnetosphere were shown to be highly model dependent with major differences existing in the predicted effects of two models, the ion cloud model and the ion sheath model. The expected total number density deposition of the propellant Ar(+) in the plasmasphere, the energy spectra of the deposited Ar(+) and time dependent behavior of the Ar(+) injected into the plasmasphere by a fleet of COTV vehicles differ drastically between the two models. The ion sheath model was demonstrated to be applicable to the proposed Ar(+) beam physics if the beam was divergent and turbulent whereas the ion cloud model was not a realistic approximation for such a beam because the "frozen-field" assumption on which it is based is not valid.

Curtis, S. A.↗

Effects of local order parameter dependent transport coefficient in diblock copolymers under applied electric fields

In this work, we present an approach for constructing thermodynamically consistent time-dependent models relevant to thin films of diblock copolymers in applied electric fields. The approach is based on the principles of linear irreversible thermodynamics, and, in this work, it is applied to study the effects of electric fields on thin films of incompressible diblock copolymers. Enforcement of local incompressibility constraint at all times leads to a local order parameter dependent transport coefficient in the model for the diblock copolymers. The dependence of the transport coefficient on the local order parameter is used to relate it with the diffusion constant of Rouse chains and leads to sensitivity of the model to initial conditions. In addition, transient behavior is found to be affected when compared with an ad hoc model assuming a constant transport coefficient. Numerical results such as electric field induced alignment of lamellae domains due to the field are found to be in qualitative agreement with experiments. This approach opens up a systematic way of developing kinetic models for simulating effects of electrolytes added to thin films containing diblock copolymers in the presence of applied electric fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fully implicit crystal plasticity models representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters

Here, this work describes a crystal plasticity formulation combining several mathematical, numerical, and implementation choices to produce a highly efficient model. Specifically, the key choices in the implementation are (1) representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters, (2) implementing a fully coupled implicit time integration for the elastic stretch, the crystal orientations, and the model internal variables, (3) implementing the model in the NEML2 constitutive modeling framework, based on PyTorch, to vectorize the calculations and port the computation to GPUs and other hardware accelerators, and (4) an exact implementation of the consistent tangent matrix, even for arbitrary coupling to other field variables beyond the displacements, like temperature, neutron fluence, etc. The first two features of the model are, to our knowledge, novel. The paper considers each of these choices individually as well as the final model as a whole. This includes a full description of modified Rodrigues parameters, their advantages over other representations of orientations, the mathematical formulae and tools required to implement a model with modified Rodrigues parameters, and a detailed description of the geometry of the space of modified Rodrigues parameters (in an appendix). It also includes a description of a fully implicit time integration scheme for the orientations and the advantages in representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters in implementing such a model. The work then assess, via numerical examples, the advantages of fully coupled implicit time integration versus more common decoupled and explicit time integration schemes. These studies demonstrate the computational advantages of fully coupled integration versus other time integration algorithms, though the performance of the competing models depends on the complexity of the underlying single crystal model. The study concludes by demonstrating that the choice of time integration method affects the sharpness of the predicted texture, with explicit methods for integrating the orientations overestimating texture sharpness and implicit methods underestimating texture sharpness.

Crystal plasticity↗

Bayesian-Motivated Probabilistic Model of Hurricane-Induced Multimechanism Flood Hazards

Multimechanism floods (MMFs) are caused by the simultaneous occurrence of more than one flood mechanism such as storm surge, precipitation, tides, and waves. MMFs can lead to more severe or differing impacts than single-mechanism floods. As a result, comprehensive risk assessments require the ability to assess the multivariate probabilistic behaviors of hazards from MMFs. Here this study introduces a novel Bayesian-motivated approach for the probabilistic assessment of hurricane-induced hazards from the combination of the surge, precipitation, tides, and river antecedent flow. A Bayesian network (BN) is developed to capture the physical (conditional) relationship between variables and facilitate the generation of a hazard curve for river discharge that captures the contributions from multiple flood drivers. A case study located along the Delaware River is used to illustrate the proposed approach. Five computationally efficient representative predictive models are developed to estimate the conditional distributions required for the BN as a means of demonstrating the overall framework. The predictive models used in this study act as placeholders and can be replaced with more sophisticated and high-fidelity models depending on the desired accuracy level. While the predictive models are intended to be representative and illustrative, the model performance is evaluated using three historical storms that affected the area. Overall, the proposed framework is shown to be transparent, effective, and adaptable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating effects of relativistic kinematics, dimensionality, interactions, and short-range correlations on the ratio of quartic over quadratic nuclear symmetry energies

While ample evidence for the so-called empirical parabolic law of the Equation of State (EOS) of isospin asymmetric nuclear matter (ANM) has been obtained in many studies within both non-relativistic and relativistic nuclear many-body theories using various interactions, it has been unclear if there is any fundamental physics reason for the small quartic symmetry energy compared to the quadratic one even as the ANM approaches pure neutron matter. Within both relativistic and non-relativistic Free Fermi Gas (FFG) models in coordinate spaces of arbitrary dimension d with and without considering Short-Range Correlations (SRC) as well as non-linear Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) models, we study effects of relativistic kinematics, dimensionality, interactions and SRC on the ratio Ψ(ρ) of quartic over quadratic symmetry energies in ANM EOSs. We found that the ratio Ψ(ρ) in the FFG model depends strongly on the dimension d. While it is very small already in the normal 3D space, it could be even smaller in spaces with reduced dimensions for sub-systems of particles in heavy-ion reactions and/or whole neutron stars due to constraints, collectivities and/or symmetries. Here, we also found that the ratio Ψ(ρ) could theoretically become very large only at the ultra-relativistic limit far above the density reachable in neutron stars. On the other hand, nuclear interaction directly and/or indirectly through SRC-induced high-momentum nucleons affect significantly the density dependence of Ψ(ρ) compared to the relativistic FFG model prediction. The SRC affects significantly not only the kinetic energy of symmetric nuclear matter but also the ratio Ψ(ρ) while the relativistic corrections are found negligible. The results may help better understand the EOS of dense neutron-rich matter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA's Far-IR/Submillimeter Roadmap Missions SAFIR and SPECS

The far-IR is rich with information about star, disk and planet formation because protostars emit predominantly in this spectral range, and the radiation can escape from the inherently dusty stellar birth sites. Spectral lines contain particularly valuable information about the cooling, collapse, and chemistry of molecular cloud cores and protostars. However, the interpretation of line intensities and profiles is model-dependent; ultimately, high angular resolution is needed to break model degeneracy and definitively characterize the source. Processes occurring on scales smaller than 10,000 AU (72 arcsec at 140 pc, where the nearest protostellar objects are found) likely affect the stellar initial mass function and determine the product of cloud collapse (Binary star or planetary system? How many planets, and what kind will they be?) The next-generation far-IR observatories SIRTF, SOFIA, and Herschel will revolutionize star formation studies and leave the community yearning for telescopes that operate in this spectral region but provide many orders of magnitude better angular resolution. NASA's space science roadmap includes the JWST-scale Single Aperture Far-IR (SAFIR) telescope and the 1 km maximum baseline far-IR interferometer, SPECS (the Submillimeter Probe of the Evolution of Cosmic Structure). I will give the scientific motivation for these missions, describe mission concepts and telescope measurement capabilities, and compare these capabilities with those of the next-generation IR telescopes and with the complementary JWST and ALMA. I will also describe the Space Infrared Interferometric Telescope (SPIRIT), a science and technology pathfinder for SPECS, which could be ready to launch in about a decade. At 100 microns, SAFIR will provide 2.5 arcsec resolution (10 times better than SIRTF), SPIRIT will provide 0.25 arcsec resolution, and SPECS will provide 10 milli-arcsec resolution, which is comparable to that of the Hubble Space Telescope.

Leisawitz, David↗

Molecular line emission models of Herbig-Haro objects. II - HCO(+) emission

We present time-dependent models of the chemistry and temperature of interstellar molecular gas clumps that are exposed to the radiation from propagating stellar-jet shocks. The X-ray, EUV, and FUV radiation from the shock initiates ion chemistry and also heats the gas in the clumps. Using representative parameters, we show that, on the shock transit time between the clumps, the abundances of the ionized molecular species that are produced in the clumps can exceed the values determined from steady state models by several orders of magnitude. Collisional excitation by the heated gas can lead to measurable line emission from several ionized species; as in previous investigations of X-ray-irradiated molecular gas, we find that electron impacts contribute significantly to this process. We apply these results to the interpretation of the HCO(+) line emission that has already been detected in several Herbig-Haro objects. We demonstrate that this picture provides a natural explanation of the fact that the line intensity typically peaks ahead of the associated shock, as well as of the reported low line-center velocities and narrow line widths. We tabulate several diagnostic line intensities of HCO(+) and other molecular species that may be used to infer the physical conditions in the emitting gas.

Wolfire, Mark G.↗

Microstructure-Dependent Rate Theory Model of Radiation-Induced Segregation in Binary Alloys

Conventional rate theory often uses the mean field concept to describe the effect of inhomogeneous microstructures on the evolution of radiation induced defect and solute/fission product segregation. However, the spatial and temporal evolution of defects and solutes determines the formation and spatial distribution of radiation-induced second phase such as precipitates and gas bubbles/voids, especially in materials with complicated microstructures and subject to high dose radiation. In this work, a microstructure-dependent model of radiation-induced segregation (RIS) has been developed to investigate the effect of inhomogeneous thermodynamic and kinetics properties of defects on diffusion and accumulations of solute A in AB binary alloys. Four independent concentrations: atom A, interstitial A, interstitial B, and vacancy on [A, B] sublattice are used as field variables to describe temporal and spatial distribution and evolution of defects and solute A. The independent concentrations of interstitial A and interstitial B allow to describe their different generation rates, thermodynamic and kinetic properties, and release the assumptions of interstitial generation and sink strength used in the conventional rate theory. Microstructure and concentration dependent chemical potentials of defects are used to calculate the driving forces of defect diffusions. With the model, the effects of defect chemical potentials and mobilities on the RIS in polycrystalline AB model alloys have been simulated. The results demonstrated the model capability in predicting defect evolution in materials with inhomogeneous thermodynamic and kinetic properties of defects. The model can be extended to materials with complicated microstructures such as a wide range of grain size distribution, coating structure and multiphases as well as radiation-induced precipitation subject to severe radiation damage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microstructure-dependent rate theory model of defect segregation and phase stability in irradiated polycrystalline LiAlO 2

We report gamma lithium aluminate (LiAlO 2 ) is a breeder material for tritium and is one of key components in a tritium-producing burnable absorber rod (TPBAR). Dissolution and precipitation of second phases such as LiAl 5 O 8 and voids are observed in irradiated LiAlO 2 . Such microstructure changes cause the degradation of thermomechanical properties of LiAlO 2 and affect tritium retention and release kinetics, and hence, the TPBAR performance. In this work, a microstructure-dependent model of radiation-induced segregation (RIS) has been developed for investigating the accumulation of species and phase stability in polycrystalline LiAlO 2 structures under irradiation. Three sublattices (i.e. [Li, Al, V] I [O, V o ] II [Li i , Al i , O i , V i ] III ), and concentrations of six diffusive species (i.e. Li; vacancy of Li or Al at [Li, Al, V] I sublattice, O vacancy at [O, V o ] II sublattice, and Li, Al and O interstitials at [Li i , Al i , O i , V i ] III interstitial sublattices; are used to describe spatial and temporal distributions of defects and chemistry. Microstructure-dependent thermodynamic and kinetic properties including the generation, reaction, and chemical potentials of defects and defect mobility are taken into account in the model. The parametric studies demonstrated the capability of the developed RIS model to assess the effect of thermodynamic and kinetic properties of defects on the segregation and depletion of species in polycrystalline structures and to explain the phase stability observed in irradiated LiAlO 2 samples. The developed RIS model will be extended to study the precipitation of LiAl 5 O 8 and voids and tritium retention by integrating the phase-field method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Direct sensitivity analysis on the parameterization of crystal plasticity models

Various methods for calibrating crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) models lead to non-unique input parameter values, which subsequently introduce uncertainty in the predicted mechanical response. Sensitivity analysis (SA) conducted on crystal plasticity models is used to identify how variability in these parameters contribute to output uncertainty. Traditional SA on CPFE parameters uses simplified surrogate models to save computational time. However, the accuracy of the surrogate models depends on the quantity of training data used, and any modeling error can propagate into the SA results, potentially affecting their reliability. In this work, the elementary effects test (EET) method, a global SA technique using direct CPFE simulations was employed, and the results obtained were compared with the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. ExaConstit, an open-source GPU-enabled CPFE code, was used to perform the simulations and direct SA. The EET method was accurately able to capture the non-linear effects of all the input parameters on the output and is a valuable approach for reliably attributing parameter sensitivities in CPFE models. Based on the results, efficient strategies to perform future parameter calibration and SA are discussed. Additionally, the SA trends observed in different single crystal orientations closely mirrored the activity of the slip systems.

Elementary Effects Test↗

Low-energy probes of no-scale SU(5) super-GUTs

We explore the possible values of the μ → eγ branching ratio, BR(μ → eγ), and the electron dipole moment (eEDM), d e , in no-scale SU(5) super-GUT models with the boundary conditions that soft supersymmetry-breaking matter scalar masses vanish at some high input scale, M in , above the GUT scale, M GUT . We take into account the constraints from the cosmological cold dark matter density, Ω CDM h 2 , the Higgs mass, M h , and the experimental lower limit on the lifetime for p → K + ν¯, the dominant proton decay mode in these super-GUT models. Reconciling this limit with Ω CDM h 2 and M h requires the Higgs field responsible for the charge-2/3 quark masses to be twisted, and possibly also that responsible for the charge-1/3 and charged-lepton masses, with model-dependent soft supersymmetry-breaking masses. We consider six possible models for the super-GUT initial conditions, and two possible choices for quark flavor mixing, contrasting their predictions for proton decay with versions of the models in which mixing effects are neglected. We find that τ(p → K + ν¯) may be accessible to the upcoming Hyper-Kamiokande experiment, whereas all the models predict BR(μ → eγ) and d e below the current and prospective future experimental sensitivities or both flavor choices, when the dark matter density, Higgs mass and current proton decay constraints are taken into account. However, there are limited regions with one of the flavor choices in two of the models where μ → e conversion on a heavy nucleus may be observable in the future. Our results indicate that there is no supersymmetric flavor problem in the class of no-scale models we consider.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗