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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2003

Developing Passenger Demand Models for International Aviation from/to Egypt: A Case Study of Cairo Airport and Egyptair

This research is concerned with developing passenger demand models for international aviation from/to Egypt. In this context, aviation sector in Egypt is represented by the biggest and main airport namely Cairo airport as well as by the main Egyptian international air carrier namely Egyptair. The developed models utilize two variables to represent aviation demand, namely total number of international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport as well as total number of passengers using Egyptair international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport. Such demand variables were related, using different functional forms, to several explanatory variables including population, GDP and number of foreign tourists. Finally, two models were selected based on their logical acceptability, best fit and statistical significance. To demonstrate usefulness of developed models, these were used to forecast future demand patterns.

Abbas, Khaled A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Aviation Frontiers: On-Demand Aircraft

Throughout the 20th Century, NASA has defined the forefront of aeronautical technology, and the aviation industry owes much of its prosperity to this knowledge and technology. In recent decades, centralized aeronautics has become a mature discipline, which raises questions concerning the future aviation innovation frontiers. Three transformational aviation capabilities, bounded together by the development of a Free Flight airspace management system, have the potential to transform 21st Century society as profoundly as civil aviation transformed the 20th Century. These mobility breakthroughs will re-establish environmental sustainable centralized aviation, while opening up latent markets for civil distributed sensing and on-demand rural and regional transportation. Of these three transformations, on-demand aviation has the potential to have the largest market and productivity improvement to society. The information system revolution over the past 20 years shows that vehicles lead, and the interconnecting infrastructure to make them more effective follows; that is, unless on-demand aircraft are pioneered, a distributed Air Traffic Control system will likely never be established. There is no single technology long-pole that will enable on-demand vehicle solutions. However, fully digital aircraft that include electric propulsion has the potential to be a multi-disciplinary initiator of solid state technologies that can provide order of magnitude improvements in the ease of use, safety/reliability, community and environmental friendliness, and affordability.

Moore, Mark D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Managing Demand and Capacity Using Multi-Sector Planning and Flexible Airspace: Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of NextGen

When demand for an airspace sector exceeds capacity, the balance can be re-established by reducing the demand, increasing the capacity, or both. The Multi-Sector Planner (MSP) concept has been proposed to better manage traffic demand by modifying trajectories across multiple sectors. A complementary approach to MSP, called Flexible Airspace Management (FAM), reconfigures the airspace such that capacity can be reallocated dynamically to balance the traffic demand across multiple sectors, resulting in fewer traffic management initiatives. The two concepts have been evaluated with a series of human-in-the-loop simulations at the Airspace Operations Laboratory to examine and refine the roles of the human operators in these concepts, as well as their tools and procedural requirements. So far MSP and FAM functions have been evaluated individually but the integration of the two functions is desirable since there are significant overlaps in their goals, geographic/temporal scope of the problem space, and the implementation timeframe. Ongoing research is planned to refine the humans roles in the integrated concept.

Lee, Paul U.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

Kumar, Vivek↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Communication Demand in the National Airspace - A Federated Learning Approach

Within the national airspace system (NAS), efficient use of spectrum remains a challenge; as UAS and UAM missions evolve, the amount of mission-critical aircraft communications are expected to significantly grow. To accommodate the increased demand, NASA Glenn Research Center is investigating artificial intelligence approaches that could dynamically allocate spectrum; however, these solutions are driven by communication and aviation data items, many of which are not directly available. One such cornerstone data item is communication demand, parameterizing the needs within a sector in terms that may directly inform spectrum allocation, such as channel access duration, bandwidth, and modulation type. This paper considers the complexity of predicting communication demand as a function of NAS behaviors. Unlike prior prediction work in communications, this research must consider how the NAS may be impacted by external factors - such as convective weather and closures - rather than estimating demand from time-series forecasting alone. Much of this research considers a federated learning design to predict communication events in terms of the type of event occurring (sector coordination, conflict resolution, etc.). To do so, an investigation of products from Sherlock Data Warehouse is conducted, identifying the trends, sufficiency, and correlations of each product to identified events. Additionally, a preliminary discussion for inferring associations between these event types and their communication parameters (duration, bandwidth, modulation) is presented. By utilizing federated learning, imbalances in the types of events and data present throughout the NAS can inform local models without impairing global training. Furthermore, the two-stage approach proposed allows for robust and speculative communication modelling, as communication techniques continue to evolve. As a result, this model enables a generalized approach to understanding NAS communications which is able to inform long-term changes to aviation spectrum management.

Nathan Schimpf↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Federated Learning Approach to Predicting Communication Demand in the National Airspace

Within the national airspace system (NAS), efficient use of spectrum remains a challenge; as UAS and UAM missions evolve, the amount of mission-critical aircraft communications are expected to significantly grow. To accommodate the increased demand, NASA Glenn Research Center is investigating artificial intelligence approaches that could dynamically allocate spectrum; however, these solutions are driven by communication and aviation data items, many of which are not directly available. One such cornerstone data item is communication demand, parameterizing the needs within a sector in terms that may directly inform spectrum allocation, such as channel access duration, bandwidth, and modulation type. This paper considers the complexity of predicting communication demand as a function of NAS behaviors. Unlike prior prediction work in communications, this research must consider how the NAS may be impacted by external factors - such as convective weather and closures - rather than estimating demand from time-series forecasting alone. Much of this research considers a federated learning design to predict communication events in terms of the type of event occurring (sector coordination, conflict resolution, etc). To do so, an investigation of products from Sherlock Data Warehouse is conducted, identifying the trends, sufficiency, and correlations of each product to identified events. Additionally, a preliminary discussion for inferring associations between these event types and their communication parameters (duration, bandwidth, modulation) is presented. By utilizing federated learning, imbalances in the types of events and data present throughout the NAS can inform local models without impairing global training. Furthermore, the two-stage approach proposed allows for robust and speculative communication modelling, as communication techniques continue to evolve. As a result, this model enables a generalized approach to understanding NAS communications which is able to inform long-term changes to aviation spectrum management.

Nathan Schimpf↗

NASA NTRS2022

Estimating groundwater use and demand in arid Kenya through assimilation of satellite data and in-situ sensors with machine learning toward drought early action

Groundwater is an important source of water for people, livestock, and agriculture during drought in the Horn of Africa. In this work, areas of high groundwater use and demand in drought-prone Kenya were identified and forecasted prior to the dry season. Estimates of groundwater use were extended from a sentinel network of 69 in-situ sensored mechanical boreholes to the region with satellite data and a machine learning model. The sensors contributed 756 site-month observations from June 2017 to September 2021 for model building and validation at a density of approximately one sensor per 3700 sq.km. An ensemble of 19 parameterized algorithms was informed by features including satellite-derived precipitation, surface water availability, vegetation indices, hydrologic land surface modeling, and site characteristics to dichotomize high groundwater pump utilization. Three operational definitions of high demand on groundwater infrastructure were considered: 1) mechanical runtime of pumps greater than a quarter of a day (6+ hr) and daily per capita volume extractions indicative of 2) domestic water needs (35+ L), and 3) intermediate needs including livestock (75+ L). Gridded interpolation of localized groundwater use and demand was provided from 2017 to 2020 and forecasted for the 2021 dry season, June–September 2021. Cross-validated skill for contemporary estimates of daily pump runtime and daily volume extraction to meet domestic and intermediate water needs was 68%, 69%, and 75%, respectively. Forecasts were externally validated with an accuracy of at least 56%, 70%, or 72% for each groundwater use definition. The groundwater maps are accessible to stakeholders including the Kenya National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). These maps represent the first operational spatially-explicit sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) estimates of groundwater use and demand in the literature. Knowledge of historical and forecasted groundwater use is anticipated to improve decision-making and resource allocation for a range of early warning early action applications.

Katie Fankhauser↗

DOE OSTI2020

Demand response providing ancillary services: A comparison of opportunities and challenges in US wholesale markets

Interest in using demand response (DR) resources to supply low cost reliability products to the bulk electricity system is on the rise due to the uncertain impacts of increasing penetrations of intermittent generation and recent rulings supporting demand side participation in wholesale markets from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. However, organized electricity and ancillary services markets are just beginning to support DR resources for ancillary services, and the set of rules and requirements for participation are unique to each market. This paper discusses the opportunities that exist in the ancillary service markets in each US Independent System Operator territory and identifies challenges to market participation for demand response resources. It compares resource requirements, limits to aggregation, measurement and verification, bidding requirements, market timelines, and the types of organizations that can play in the markets. Additionally, it uses market clearing prices and market size to compare what value may be extracted from these markets, and identifies how these prices are currently determined. Using these criteria, PJM and ERCOT have the most favorable conditions for demand response participation in ancillary service markets, and changes to rules that effect aggregation and minimum resource size could promote more participation in other AS markets across the US.

MacDonald, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detailed Laboratory Evaluation of Electric Demand Load Shifting Potential of Controlled Heat Pump Water Heaters

The demand profile management of electric end uses is vital research for utilities and policymakers planning greenhouse gas emission reductions. In this study, detailed laboratory research was conducted on the load shifting potential of 4 grid-connected HPWHs and one electric resistance water heaters (ERWH). The testing applied different CTA-2045 shed and critical peak command designs under three water draw profiles. Highly-controlled laboratory experiments were conducted in Florida. One of the four HPWHs was a prototype incorporating the new CTA-2045-B protocol feature allowing ‘advanced’ load-up above tank setpoint. A three-hour morning (6 – 9 AM) and four-hour evening curtailment (4 – 8 PM) were defined as the shed or critical peak periods reflecting high-value control periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. Tests were performed under baseline conditions (no load shift) and under varied load-shifting schemes, including load up and advanced load up, ahead of shed and critical peak commands. Data were collected from December 2020 – February 2022 in the laboratory and compared with field experiments in Florida and the Pacific Northwest. Grid-connected HPWHs were found to reduce peak demand by up to 0.47 kW compared to uncontrolled HPWH units, depending on time of day, control scheme, draw profile, and temperature cluster. The load up strategy demonstrated the ability of all units to utilize heat pump mode for extended periods ahead of peak events. Demand reductions for the HPWHs were much larger when compared with the ERWH— up to 1.64 kW with large hot water draws in winter.

Fenaughty, Karen↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recharge Demand Mitigation for Latent Heat Thermal Energy Storage at Off-peak Hours

The utilization of integrated heat pump thermal energy storage (HP-TES) systems for space conditioning applications can reduce electrical power demand and achieve utility savings resulting from peak shaving and load shifting. However, issues arise when the energy required to recharge the TES exceeds the shifted energy demand, especially in extreme climates where high-temperature lifts between the outdoor air conditions and phase-change materials (PCMs) during recharging may occur. In this work, a single room-temperature (22°C) PCM-TES is integrated into a single-speed heat pump system using a secondary hydronic loop where the TES is recharged using the outdoor unit during off-peak hours. Three recharge strategies were investigated as potential pathways to reduce recharging power demand: (i) considering different heat source/sink temperatures, (ii) using a variable-speed compressor, and (iii) using a variable-speed pump. Simulations were conducted using Modelica for HP-TES recharging at different heat source/sink temperatures from -30 – 20℃ in heating mode and 0 – 30℃ in cooling mode. Results show that the most effective recharge demand reduction strategy is an HP-TES system using a single-speed compressor with a variable-speed pump for the hydronic loop run at preferable heat source/sink temperatures when the temperature lifts were reduced. Utilizing a variable-speed compressor for the HP-TES system reduced recharge time in extreme cases at the cost of additional compressor power input. The findings motivate potential control strategies that minimize recharge energy and maximize peak energy savings, hence reducing overall operating costs and annual energy consumption for HP-TES systems for space conditioning applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Assessment of Data Center Load Demand Powered by Small Modular Reactors and Distributed Energy Resources

The rapid increase in data center energy demand, driven by AI and large-scale data processing, poses significant challenges to global energy infrastructure. Data centers require substantial and reliable energy for continuous operations and high-performance computing. Current electrical grids face issues such as transmission bottlenecks and aging infrastructure, making it difficult to meet these demands. Integrating inverter-based-resources (IBRs) like solar and wind presents both opportunities and challenges due to their intermittent nature. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) offer a promising solution with their enhanced safety, modularity, reliability, and scalability, providing consistent base load power ideal for data center operations. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of powering data center load demand using a combination of SMRs and IBRs with grid-connected and islanded mode. This study utilized Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) HPC data center hourly load profiles and Xendee microgrid optimization platform to conduct the analysis. In this configuration, SMRs serves as the primary base load power source, consistently providing a steady supply of electricity necessary to meet the minimum load demand of the data center with support from the IBRs. Key performance indicators such as Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Net Present Value (NPV) has been calculated to assess the economic feasibility. The findings from this research will underscore the strategic benefits of integrating SMR plant with DERs – particularly for critical infrastructure load such as data centers.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demand response of loads having thermal reserves

Systems and methods are described herein that improve grid performance by smoothing demand using thermal reserves. The smoothed demand can reduce peak loads as well as the ramp rate of demand that will otherwise require the use of inefficient, expensive generation sources. These improvements are tied to the selective switching on or off electrical loads that are coupled to thermal reserves, effectively using the thermal reserves as an energy storage mechanism. Historical data of past usage can be used to create load model and ensure that effects on customer comfort are minimized while still accomplishing the beneficial effects for the overall grid, which enables grid owners to both reduce their operational cost by avoiding expensive generation and improve system reliability by achieving more predictable power demand.

Ren, Wei↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scaling Demand Flexibility: Building on 30 Years of Energy Efficiency Success

With electricity consumption across the United States (US) and Canada anticipated to grow, energy efficiency program administrators have a key role to play in helping to ensure energy affordability and reliability in support of the broader economic systems utilities and grid support. Connected, demand side load balancing solutions, such as load shifting heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and managed charging for electric vehicles (EVs), can dynamically manage energy, allowing for more volumetric electricity consumption without incurring the expense of upgraded transmission and distribution capabilities. When combined, or aggregated, many small loads can be managed to have meaningful impact on energy demand on the grid. Utilities and their partners have an opportunity to leverage decades of experience and the infrastructure needed to assess, design, implement, and measure programs to scale up the adoption of equipment with built-in load flexibility capabilities. Current efforts among a wide variety of electricity system service providers, utilities, standards agencies, regulators, national labs and private industry stakeholders aim to identify common standards, metrics, and methodologies for valuing grid services offered by demand side equipment. By combining those efforts with decades of proven energy efficiency resources, utilities are poised to effectuate a scaling up of equipment with energy management capabilities installed in homes and businesses across the US and Canada. This paper will provide an overview of how utilities are approaching this era of load growth and new peak demands across the United States and Canada. It will highlight the specific strategies that program administrators are employing to advance market transformation for grid-enabled products and devices that have the greatest potential to reduce energy use and increase load flexibility.

Grant, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control for demand flexibility: Real-world operation of a commercial building with photovoltaic and battery systems

Hundreds of studies have investigated Model Predictive Control (MPC) for the optimal operation of building energy systems in the past two decades. However, MPC field tests are still uncommon, especially for small- and medium-sized commercial buildings and for buildings integrated with onsite renewables. This paper describes the implementation and the long-term performance evaluation of an MPC controller in a small commercial building equipped with behind-the-meter photovoltaics and electrochemical batteries. MPC controls space conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and the battery system. We tested two types of demand flexibility applications in the field: electricity bill minimization under time-of-use tariffs and responses to grid flexibility events. Results show that the proposed controller achieves 12% of annual electricity cost savings and 34% peak demand reduction against the baseline, while respecting thermal comfort and food safety. The field tests also demonstrate the ability of the MPC controller to provide a multitude of grid services including real-time pricing, demand limiting, load shedding, load shifting, and load tracking, using the same optimization framework.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Defining and applying an electricity demand flexibility benchmarking metrics framework for grid-interactive efficient commercial buildings

Building demand flexibility (DF) research has recently gained attention. To unlock building DF as a predictable grid resource, we must establish a quantitative understanding of the resource size, performance variability, and predictability based on large empirical datasets. Researchers have proposed various sets of theoretical metrics to measure this performance. Some metrics have been applied to simulation results, but most fall short of exploring the complexities in real building applications. There are practical metrics used in individual demand response field studies but they alone cannot fulfil the job of DF benchmarking across a diverse group of buildings. The electrical grid's geographically diverse and changing nature presents challenges to comparing building DF performance measured under different conditions (i.e., benchmarking DF). To address this challenge, a novel DF benchmarking framework focused on load shedding and shifting is presented; the foundation is a set of simple, proven single-event metrics with attributes describing event conditions. These enable benchmarking and visualization in different dimensions for identifying trends that represent how these attributes influence DF. To test its feasibility and scalability, the DF framework was applied to two case studies of 11 office buildings and 121 big-box retail buildings with demand response participation data. Furthermore, these examples provided a pathway for using both building level benchmarking and aggregation to extract insights into building DF about magnitude, consistency, and influential factors. Potential applications of the framework and real-world values have been identified for grid and building stakeholders.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of peak power demand reduction available via modulation of building ventilation systems.

Peak power demand strains electrical grids and increases cost of electricity generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure. Many studies have examined ways of reducing peak power demand, including modification of room air temperature setpoints or reduction of lighting levels. However, very few or no studies have examined the peak power reduction resource offered by temporary curtailment of building ventilation systems. For this reason, we conducted a simulation campaign in which we examined the resource offered by temporary ventilation curtailment in commercial buildings of different use types across the United States and in residences in the state of California, with the essential constraint that any changes resulted in air quality acceptable to occupants through additional ventilation to compensate for the curtailment. To do this, we employed previously validated building models implemented in the airflow and contaminant transport tool CONTAM and building thermal and systems modeling tool EnergyPlus, in some cases co-simulated. Overall, results show savings are highly dependent on building type and climate but range from 0–2 W/ft 2 and up to 40% of total peak building power demand. Depending on building type, this power shed can be conducted for 1.5–8 h before acute exposure or odor concerns are expected, assuming a safety factor of 2. This reduction is of the same magnitude as that offered by thermal control strategies such as setpoint increase, or from lighting reduction strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimated Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

In this data descriptor, we present hourly electricity demand estimates for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016 to 2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components for each county. The first is the weighted average of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. The second is the weighted average of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗