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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Tight Bound on the Neutron Star Radius with Quasiperiodic Oscillations in Short Gamma-Ray Bursts

Abstract Quasiperiodic oscillations (QPOs) have been recently discovered in the short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) 910711 and 931101B. Their frequencies are consistent with those of the quasiradial and quadrupolar oscillations of binary neutron star (BNS) merger remnants, as obtained in numerical relativity simulations. These simulations reveal quasi-universal relations between the remnant oscillation frequencies and the tidal coupling constant of the binaries. Under the assumption that the observed QPOs are due to these postmerger oscillations, we use the frequency–tide relations in a Bayesian framework to infer the source redshift, as well as the chirp mass and the binary tidal deformability of the BNS progenitors for GRBs 910711 and 931101B. We further use this inference to estimate bounds on the mass–radius relation for neutron stars. By combining the estimates from the two GRBs, we find a 68% credible range R 1.4 = 12.4 8 − 0.40 + 0.41 km for the radius of a neutron star with mass M = 1.4 M ⊙ , which is one of the tightest bounds to date.

Guedes, Victor↗
NASA NTRS2005

Method for Estimating Thread Strength Reduction of Damaged Parent Holes with Inserts

During normal assembly and disassembly of bolted-joint components, thread damage and/or deformation may occur. If threads are overloaded, thread damage/deformation can also be anticipated. Typical inspection techniques (e.g. using GO-NO GO gages) may not provide adequate visibility of the extent of thread damage. More detailed inspection techniques have provided actual pitch-diameter profiles of damaged-hardware holes. A method to predict the reduction in thread shear-out capacity of damaged threaded holes has been developed. This method was based on testing and analytical modeling. Test samples were machined to simulate damaged holes in the hardware of interest. Test samples containing pristine parent-holes were also manufactured from the same bar-stock material to provide baseline results for comparison purposes. After the particular parent-hole thread profile was machined into each sample a helical insert was installed into the threaded hole. These samples were tested in a specially designed fixture to determine the maximum load required to shear out the parent threads. It was determined from the pristine-hole samples that, for the specific material tested, each individual thread could resist an average load of 3980 pounds. The shear-out loads of the holes having modified pitch diameters were compared to the ultimate loads of the specimens with pristine holes. An equivalent number of missing helical coil threads was then determined based on the ratio of shear-out loads for each thread configuration. These data were compared with the results from a finite element model (FEM). The model gave insights into the ability of the thread loads to redistribute for both pristine and simulated damage configurations. In this case, it was determined that the overall potential reduction in thread load-carrying capability in the hardware of interest was equal to having up to three fewer threads in the hole that bolt threads could engage. One- half of this potential reduction was due to local pitch-diameter variations and the other half was due to overall pitch-diameter enlargement beyond Class 2 fit. This result was important in that the thread shear capacity for this particular hardware design was the limiting structural capability. The details of the method development, including the supporting testing, data reduction and analytical model results comparison will be discussed hereafter.

Johnson, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Use of RGPS Kinematic Data to Estimate Nonlinear Sea Ice Motion

In current simulations of the interaction between sea ice and its environment, large significance is placed on the deformation of the sea ice. Sea ice deformation is an important process in determining the sea ice thickness distribution across a wide range of space and time scales. Changes in the sea ice thickness distribution affect energy and mass fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean and also the strength of the ice. While most current ice models assume linear variation in the ice motion field to calculate strain, deformation of sea ice occurs through the opening, closing and shearing of ice along discrete linear features. New numerical models are being developed which explicitly account for discontinuities in ice motion, and the need for requisite data sets for model validation has emerged. Multiple buoy data sets, as well as satellite data, have been used to examine the movement and deformation of sea ice. Generally it has been found that the ice motion field has been represented well by buoy data, as well as satellite data over a broad range of scales. However, the underlying deformation (spatial variation in displacement) as represented by different data sets may vary. For the work presented here, sea ice motion In current simulations of the interaction between sea ice and its environment, large significance is placed on the deformation of the sea ice. Sea ice deformation is an important process in determining the sea ice thickness distribution across a wide range of space and time scales. Changes in the sea ice thickness distribution affect energy and mass fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean and also the strength of the ice. While most current ice models assume linear variation in the ice motion field to calculate strain, deformation of sea ice occurs through the opening, closing and shearing of ice along discrete linear features. New numerical models are being developed which explicitly account for discontinuities in ice motion, and the need for requisite data sets for model validation has emerged. Multiple buoy data sets, as well as satellite data, have been used to examine the movement and deformation of sea ice. Generally it has been found that the ice motion field has been represented well by buoy data, as well as satellite data over a broad range of scales. However, the underlying deformation (spatial variation in displacement) as represented by different data sets may vary. For the work presented here, sea ice motio

Pruis, M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of competition of spherical and deformed shells in quasifission of superheavy nuclei

Quasifission and fusion-fission represent the two most likely reaction outcomes to occur postcapture in collisions leading to superheavy nuclei. As such, understanding these mechanisms and how they relate to one another is key to understanding the intricate dynamics that drive the formation (or dissociation) of the nascent compound nuclei formed in fusion reactions. This understanding directly translates to a more informed picture of suitable reaction partners and can provide vital information for experimental efforts to study the physics and chemistry of superheavy elements. In this work we report results from time-dependent simulations of 48 Ca + 238 U and 50 Ti + 236 Th reactions at incident energies just above the Coulomb barrier with a focus on the quasifission process that prevent the formation of a fully equilibrated 286 Cn compound nucleus. We study these reactions systematically and consider a wide range of initial configurations to extract a robust estimate of primary fragment yields for the quasifission process. Multiple preferred exit channels are observed, with both spherical and deformed shell effects in the heavy and light fragments driving contributions to the production yields depending on the initial configuration of the system. Orientation effects of the deformed actinide targets are found to be a primary driver of which exit channels are populated. Here, the impact of moving away from a doubly magic projectile is explored with implications towards the reactions considered for current and future superheavy searches.

Gumbel, Richard [Michigan State University, East L↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interseismic Strain Accumulation between the Colorado Plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone: Implications for the Seismic Hazard near Las Vegas, Nevada

ABSTRACT Crustal deformation in the central Basin and Range between the Colorado plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone is active but slow, making it a challenge to assess how strain is distributed and crustal motion transferred. However, knowledge of strain rates is very important, particularly for addressing the seismic hazard for both the Las Vegas urban area and the site of the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, in southern Nevada. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provide important constraints, particularly now that the GPS network in the area has substantially expanded in recent years. However, because deformation is slow, it is important to mitigate any transient tectonic and nontectonic signals to obtain the most accurate long-term interseismic motion and robust estimation of strain rates. We use data from all GPS stations in the region including both long-running continuous and semicontinuous stations. We model and remove postseismic displacements at these stations using source parameters for 41 events, dating back to the 1700 Cascadia megathrust earthquake, which contribute significantly to the deformation field within the central Basin and Range. We also remove correlated noise from the time series with the common-mode component imaging technique. We find that removal of both the postseismic transients and common-mode noise substantially reduces the uncertainties and spatial variation in the velocities. We find east–west extension across the Las Vegas Valley of 0.5–0.6 mm/yr. The interseismic strain rate field, calculated with the final velocities, reveals higher strain rates through southern Nevada than in previous studies, with rates within Las Vegas Valley of 8.5±2.4×10−9 yr−1. Our results also confirm shear along the Pahranagat shear zone, but the estimated amplitude is strongly affected by postseismic relaxation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
NASA NTRS1973

Some further results of J-integral analysis and estimates.

It is shown that the J-integral can be directly evaluated from single load-displacement records for a series of crack toughness specimens having the common feature that their only significant length dimension is that of the uncracked ligament. For the special case of bending loads on the ligament of a deeply cracked bar, J is shown to be twice the work of deformation divided by the ligament area. This and like results are employed to discuss Charpy and 'equivalent energy' toughness measures and also to evolve yet simpler estimating procedures for the J-integral.

Rice, J. R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive modeling of Néel temperature in austenitic alloys using CALPHAD and data analytics

The Néel temperature is a crucial yet often overlooked parameter in calculating the stacking fault energy (SFE) of austenitic alloys. Several empirical equations have been proposed to estimate the Néel temperature of austenitic alloys, which are then used to calculate the SFE and explain deformation mechanisms. However, these empirical equations, typically derived using linear regression algorithms, are often simplistic and may fail to capture the complex interactions among multiple alloying elements that influence the Néel temperature. Moreover, their applicability is usually limited to specific compositional ranges. In this study, we propose a CALPHAD based approach and develop a surrogate decision tree based regression model capable of capturing the interactions among multiple alloying elements to predict the Néel temperature. Predictions from both the CALPHAD approach and the regression model show close agreement with experimental measurements reported in the literature. In conclusion, the implications of accurate Néel temperature predictions on the calculated SFE and deformation mechanisms are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Sentinel-1 and GRACE satellite data to monitor the hydrological variations within the Tulare Basin, California

Abstract Subsidence induced by groundwater depletion is a grave problem in many regions around the world, leading to a permanent loss of groundwater storage within an aquifer and even producing structural damage at the Earth’s surface. California’s Tulare Basin is no exception, experiencing about a meter of subsidence between 2015 and 2020. However, understanding the relationship between changes in groundwater volumes and ground deformation has proven difficult. We employ surface displacement measurements from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and gravimetric estimates of terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite pair to characterize the hydrological dynamics within the Tulare basin. The removal of the long-term aquifer compaction from the InSAR time series reveals coherent short-term variations that correlate with hydrological features. For example, in the winter of 2018–2019 uplift is observed at the confluence of several rivers and streams that drain into the southeastern edge of the basin. These observations, combined with estimates of mass changes obtained from the orbiting GRACE satellites, form the basis for imaging the monthly spatial variations in water volumes. This approach facilitates the quick and effective synthesis of InSAR and gravimetric datasets and will aid efforts to improve our understanding and management of groundwater resources around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1977

Tidal radiation

The general theory of tides is developed within the framework of Einstein's theory of gravitation. It is based on the concept of Fermi frame and the associated notion of tidal frame along an open curve in spacetime. Following the previous work of the author an approximate scheme for the evaluation of tidal gravitational radiation is presented which is valid for weak gravitational fields. The emission of gravitational radiation from a body in the field of a black hole is discussed, and for some cases of astrophysical interest estimates are given for the contributions of radiation due to center-of-mass motion, purely tidal deformation, and the interference between the center of mass and tidal motions.

Mashhoon, B.↗
NASA NTRS2008

2007 Research and Engineering Annual Report

Selected research and technology activities at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center are summarized. These following activities exemplify the Center's varied and productive research efforts: Developing a Requirements Development Guide for an Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System; Digital Terrain Data Compression and Rendering for Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance Systems; Nonlinear Flutter/Limit Cycle Oscillations Prediction Tool; Nonlinear System Identification Using Orthonormal Bases: Application to Aeroelastic/Aeroservoelastic Systems; Critical Aerodynamic Flow Feature Indicators: Towards Application with the Aerostructures Test Wing; Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool Development Using a Genetic Algorithm; Structural Model Tuning Capability in an Object-Oriented Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool; Extension of Ko Straight-Beam Displacement Theory to the Deformed Shape Predictions of Curved Structures; F-15B with Phoenix Missile and Pylon Assembly--Drag Force Estimation; Mass Property Testing of Phoenix Missile Hypersonic Testbed Hardware; ARMD Hypersonics Project Materials and Structures: Testing of Scramjet Thermal Protection System Concepts; High-Temperature Modal Survey of the Ruddervator Subcomponent Test Article; ARMD Hypersonics Project Materials and Structures: C/SiC Ruddervator Subcomponent Test and Analysis Task; Ground Vibration Testing and Model Correlation of the Phoenix Missile Hypersonic Testbed; Phoenix Missile Hypersonic Testbed: Performance Design and Analysis; Crew Exploration Vehicle Launch Abort System-Pad Abort-1 (PA-1) Flight Test; Testing the Orion (Crew Exploration Vehicle) Launch Abort System-Ascent Abort-1 (AA-1) Flight Test; SOFIA Flight-Test Flutter Prediction Methodology; SOFIA Closed-Door Aerodynamic Analyses; SOFIA Handling Qualities Evaluation for Closed-Door Operations; C-17 Support of IRAC Engine Model Development; Current Capabilities and Future Upgrade Plans of the C-17 Data Rack; Intelligent Data Mining Capabilities as Applied to Integrated Vehicle Health Management; STARS Flight Demonstration No. 2 IP Data Formatter; Space-Based Telemetry and Range Safety (STARS) Flight Demonstration No. 2 Range User Flight Test Results; Aerodynamic Effects of the Quiet Spike(tm) on an F-15B Aircraft; F-15 Intelligent Flight Controls-Increased Destabilization Failure; F-15 Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Improved Adaptive Controller; Aeroelastic Analysis of the Ikhana/Fire Pod System; Ikhana: Western States Fire Missions Utilizing the Ames Research Center Fire Sensor; Ikhana: Fiber-Optic Wing Shape Sensors; Ikhana: ARTS III; SOFIA Closed-Door Flutter Envelope Flight Testing; F-15B Quiet Spike(TM) Aeroservoelastic Flight Test Data Analysis; and UAVSAR Platform Precision Autopilot Flight Results.

Stoliker, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2022

Using Sentinel-1 and GRACE Satellite Data to Monitor the Hydrological Variations Within the Tulare Basin, California

Subsidence induced by groundwater depletion is a grave problem in many regions around the world, leading to a permanent loss of groundwater storage within an aquifer and even producing structural damage at the Earth’s surface. California’s Tulare Basin is no exception, experiencing about a meter of subsidence between 2015 and 2020. However, understanding the relationship between changes in groundwater volumes and ground deformation has proven difficult. We employ surface displacement measurements from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and gravimetric estimates of terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite pair to characterize the hydrological dynamics within the Tulare basin. The removal of the long-term aquifer compaction from the InSAR time series reveals coherent short-term variations that correlate with hydrological features. For example, in the winter of 2018–2019 uplift is observed at the confluence of several rivers and streams that drain into the southeastern edge of the basin. These observations, combined with estimates of mass changes obtained from the orbiting GRACE satellites, form the basis for imaging the monthly spatial variations in water volumes. This approach facilitates the quick and effective synthesis of InSAR and gravimetric datasets and will aid efforts to improve our understanding and management of groundwater resources around the world.

Donald W. Vasco↗
NASA NTRS2022

Geodetic Investigations of the Mission Concept MAGIC to Reveal Callisto’s Internal Structure

Geodetic and geophysical investigations of the Galilean moon Callisto address fundamental questions regarding the formation and evolution of the Jovian system. Callisto's evolution and internal structure appear to significantly differ from the other Jovian satellites. Similarly-sized Ganymede is a highly evolved ice-rock moon with a differentiated interior, intrinsic magnetic field, and abundant surface evidence of internal activity. In contrast, Callisto's surface is ancient, and Galileo spacecraft data suggest its interior is only incompletely differentiated, despite the presumed presence of a sub-surface ocean. These properties make Callisto uniquely able to constrain the timing and nature of the Jovian system formation. The Magnetics, Altimetry, Gravity, and Imaging of Callisto (MAGIC) mission concept is conceived to fully characterize the properties of this enigmatic moon from its deep interior to the icy shell. Three main instruments are included as a scientific payload. Highly accurate measurements of Callisto's topography, magnetic field, and morphology are obtained by the onboard laser altimeter, magnetometer, and camera, respectively. The telecommunication system supports an additional gravity and radio science investigation. Long- and short-wavelength gravity anomalies afford powerful constraints on internal differentiation and the properties of the hydrosphere (water and ice). Comprehensive numerical simulations and covariance analyses of MAGIC mission scenarios presented in this paper show that the gravitational degree-2 normalized coefficients and the pole obliquity enable the determination of the moment of inertia with an accuracy better than 0.015%. The combination of gravity and altimetry measurements acquired by MAGIC are essential to the characterization of Callisto's interior if – as is likely – the degree-2 gravity includes non-hydrostatic terms. MAGIC's radio science data yield the estimation of Callisto's gravity field with spatial resolutions of <100 km. The combination of gravitational and deformation tides that are retrieved by the radio science and altimetry investigations, respectively, leads to the recovery of the rigid ice shell thickness to within ∼3 km. Together these datasets would resolve ambiguities inherent in Galileo flyby data, revealing Callisto's interior structure as well as the existence and properties of its postulated internal ocean.

Antonio Genova↗
NASA NTRS2018

Orion Optical Navigation Progress Toward Exploration: Mission 1

Optical navigation of human spacecraft was proposed on Gemini and implemented successfully on Apollo as a means of autonomously operating the vehicle in the event of lost communication with controllers on Earth. It shares a history with the "method of lunar distances" that was used in the 18th century and gained some notoriety after its use by Captain James Cook during his 1768 Pacific voyage of the HMS Endeavor. The Orion emergency return system utilizing optical navigation has matured in design over the last several years, and is currently undergoing the final implementation and test phase in preparation for Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1) in 2019. The software development is being worked as a Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) project delivered as an application within the Core Flight Software of the Orion camera controller module. The mathematical formulation behind the initial ellipse fit in the image processing is detailed in Christian. The non-linear least squares refinement then follows the technique of Mortari as an estimation process of the planetary limb using the sigmoid function. The Orion optical navigation system uses a body fixed camera, a decision that was driven by mass and mechanism constraints. The general concept of operations involves a 2-hour pass once every 24 hours, with passes specifically placed before all maneuvers to supply accurate navigation information to guidance and targeting. The pass lengths are limited by thermal constraints on the vehicle since the OpNav attitude generally deviates from the thermally stable tail-to-sun attitude maintained during the rest of the orbit coast phase. Calibration is scheduled prior to every pass due to the unknown nature of thermal effects on the lens distortion and the mounting platform deformations between the camera and star trackers. The calibration technique is described in detail by Christian, et al. and simultaneously estimates the Brown-Conrady coefficients and the Star Tracker/Camera interlock angles. Accurate attitude information is provided by the star trackers during each pass. Figure 1 shows the various phases of lunar return navigation when the vehicle is in autonomous operation with lost ground communication. The midcourse maneuvers are placed to control the entry interface conditions to the desired corridor for safe landing. The general form of optical navigation on Orion is where still images of the Moon or Earth are processed to find the apparent angular diameter and centroid in the camera focal plane. This raw data is transformed into range and bearing angle measurements using planetary data and precise star tracker inertial attitude. The measurements are then sent to the main flight computer's Kalman filter to update the onboard state vector. The images are, of course, collected over an arc to converge the state and estimate velocity. The same basic technique was used by Apollo to satisfy loss-of-comm, but Apollo used manual crew sightings with a vehicle-integral sextant instead of autonomously processing optical imagery. The software development is past its Critical Design Review, and is progressing through test and certification for human rating. In support of this, a hardware-in-the-loop test rig was developed in the Johnson Space Center Electro-Optics Lab to exercise the OpNav system prior to integrated testing on the Orion vehicle. Figure 2 shows the rig, which the test team has dubbed OCILOT (Orion Camera In the Loop Optical Testbed). Analysis performed to date shows a delivery that satisfies an allowable entry corridor as shown in Figure 3.

Holt, Greg N.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic aspects of graphene deformation and fracture from approximate density functional theory

Graphene is one of the most intriguing two-dimensional carbon materials. Its mechanical strength and failure are key concerns for materials engineering and applications. Despite the success of fracture mechanics, the mechanism of how pristine materials fail remains an elusive problem. While many theoretical studies based on molecular dynamics using empirical forcefields have tried to address this question, atomic-scale mechanics are not clearly understood. Especially, a widely employed bond-breaking approach based on the critical bond length has not been rigorously tested. Here, utilizing molecular dynamics simulations with density functional based tight binding, we investigate how the failure of the pristine material initiates. The Wiberg bond order (W BO ) to estimate the change of chemical bonds shows a transition from sp 2 (W BO ~ 1.33) to sp 3 (WBO < 1.0) during the deformation. However, it reveals that a single threshold value for either the WBO or bond length is insufficient to decide failure of pristine material without free edges or defects. Instead, collective behaviors of the local atomic group govern the fracture initiation of pristine graphene. Overall, our study provides dynamic mechanical responses based on quantum mechanics, which have not been captured by empirical forcefields, opening opportunities to design properties by precisely coupling the mechanics and quantum mechanics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2015

Aeroelastic Analysis of a Flexible Wing Wind Tunnel Model with Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flap Design

This paper presents data analysis of a flexible wing wind tunnel model with a variable camber continuous trailing edge flap (VCCTEF) design for drag minimization tested at the University of Washington Aeronautical Laboratory (UWAL). The wind tunnel test was designed to explore the relative merit of the VCCTEF concept for improved cruise efficiency through the use of low-cost aeroelastic model test techniques. The flexible wing model is a 10%-scale model of a typical transport wing and is constructed of woven fabric composites and foam core. The wing structural stiffness in bending is tailored to be half of the stiffness of a Boeing 757-era transport wing while the torsional stiffness is about the same. This stiffness reduction results in a wing tip deflection of about 10% of the wing semi-span. The VCCTEF is a multi-segment flap design having three chordwise camber segments and five spanwise flap sections for a total of 15 individual flap elements. The three chordwise camber segments can be positioned appropriately to create a desired trailing edge camber. Elastomeric material is used to cover the gaps in between the spanwise flap sections, thereby creating a continuous trailing edge. Wind tunnel data analysis conducted previously shows that the VCCTEF can achieve a drag reduction of up to 6.31% and an improvement in the lift-to-drag ratio (L=D) of up to 4.85%. A method for estimating the bending and torsional stiffnesses of the flexible wingUWAL wind tunnel model from static load test data is presented. The resulting estimation indicates that the stiffness of the flexible wing is significantly stiffer in torsion than in bending by as much as 9 to 1. The lift prediction for the flexible wing is computed by a coupled aerodynamic-structural model. The coupled model is developed by coupling a conceptual aerodynamic tool Vorlax with a finite-element model of the flexible wing via an automated geometry deformation tool. Based on the comparison of the lift curve slope, the lift prediction for the rigid wing is in good agreement with the estimated lift coefficients derived from the wind tunnel test data. Due to the movement of the VCCTEF during the wind tunnel test, uncertainty in the lift prediction due to the indicated variations of the VCCTEF deflection is studied. The results show a significant spread in the lift prediction which contradicts the consistency in the aerodynamic measurements, thus suggesting that the indicated variations as measured by the VICON system may not be reliable. The lift prediction of the flexible wing agrees very well with the measured lift curve for the baseline configuration. The computed bending deflection and wash-out twist of the flexible wing also match reasonably well with the aeroelastic deflection measurements. The results demonstrate the validity of the aerodynamic-structural tool for use to analyze aerodynamic performance of flexible wings.

Wind Tunnel↗
NASA NTRS1994

Subduction and volatile recycling in Earth's mantle

The subduction of water and other volatiles into the mantle from oceanic sediments and altered oceanic crust is the major source of volatile recycling in the mantle. Until now, the geotherms that have been used to estimate the amount of volatiles that are recycled at subduction zones have been produced using the hypothesis that the slab is rigid and undergoes no internal deformation. On the other hand, most fluid dynamical mantle flow calculations assume that the slab has no greater strength than the surrounding mantle. Both of these views are inconsistent with laboratory work on the deformation of mantle minerals at high pressures. We consider the effects of the strength of the slab using two-dimensional calculations of a slab-like thermal downwelling with an endothermic phase change. Because the rheology and composition of subducting slabs are uncertain, we consider a range of Clapeyron slopes which bound current laboratory estimates of the spinel to perovskite plus magnesiowustite phase transition and simple temperature-dependent rheologies based on an Arrhenius law diffusion mechanism. In uniform viscosity convection models, subducted material piles up above the phase change until the pile becomes gravitationally unstable and sinks into the lower mantle (the avalanche). Strong slabs moderate the 'catastrophic' effects of the instabilities seen in many constant-viscosity convection calculations; however, even in the strongest slabs we consider, there is some retardation of the slab descent due to the presence of the phase change.

King, S. D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

The few millimeter per year level accuracy of radial global velocity estimates with the Global Positioning System (GPS) is at least an order of magnitude poorer than the accuracy of horizontal global motions. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. GPS error sources relevant to this project can be classified in two broad categories: (1) those related to the analysis of the GPS phase observable, and (2) those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined from the analysis of GPS data important aspect in the first category include the effect on vertical rate estimates due to standard analysis choices, such as orbit modeling, network geometry, ambiguity resolution, as well as errors in models (or simply the lack of models) for clocks, multipath, phase-center variations, atmosphere, and solid-Earth tides. The second category includes the possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference flames for determining vertical velocities in a global scale. The latter has been the subject of our research activities during this reporting period.

Elosegui, Pedro↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-based Induced Earthquake Forecasting: Process Understanding, and Hazards Mitigation

Disposal of saltwater co-produced with oil and gas is linked to elevated seismicity in the Central and Midwest US. There is a concern that these events may lead to widespread damage and an overall increase in seismicity. Thus an improved understanding of the spatially and temporally variable deformation and stress field associated with fluid injection operation is critically necessary for evaluating time-varying seismic hazards. Despite the improvements in seismic monitoring capacity and the resulting decrease in the magnitude detection threshold, estimates of induced earthquake probability remain elusive due to insufficient models incapable of accounting for the complex physics governing the process of induced seismicity. The proposed research effort will comprehensively analyze, integrate, and interpret geodetic, injection, and seismic data in the vicinity of the injection sites in Oklahoma to resolve the 4-dimensional distribution of pore pressure and stress in the shallow crust. This project, in particular, is focused on exploring the statistical relation between injection operation and increased earthquake hazard. The amplitude of and the extent to which pore pressure changes are determined by some factors, in particular, the hydrogeological properties of the rocks, such as diffusivity. Thus the available deformation data will be used to constrain hydrogeological properties of the medium, to accurately resolve the evolution of crustal stresses due to fluid injection. Having the time-varying models of stress changes, a statistical framework will be implemented to estimate the time-dependent probability of large earthquakes on the nearby fault systems. These data and models help to improve seismic hazard estimates and aid in constructing operational-induced earthquake forecast models. This information can also be integrated into the updated U.S. National Seismic Hazard Map, which local communities and authorities use in their earthquake risk estimates and mitigation efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗