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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

A Multirange Vehicle Speed Prediction With Application to Model Predictive Control-Based Integrated Power and Thermal Management of Connected Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Abstract Connectivity and automated driving technologies have opened up new research directions in the energy management of vehicles which exploit look-ahead preview and enhance the situational awareness. Despite this advancement, the vehicle speed preview that can be obtained from vehicle-to-vehicle/infrastructure (V2V/I) communications is often limited to a relatively short time-horizon. The vehicular energy systems, specifically those of the electrified vehicles, consist of multiple interacting power and thermal subsystems that respond over different time-scales. Consequently, their optimal energy management can greatly benefit from long-term speed prediction beyond that available through V2V/I communications. Accurately extending the look-ahead preview, on the other hand, is fundamentally challenging due to the dynamic nature of the traffic environment. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven multirange vehicle speed prediction strategy for arterial corridors with signalized intersections, providing the vehicle speed preview for three different ranges, i.e., short-, medium-, and long-range. The short-range preview is obtained by V2V/I communications. The medium-range preview is realized using a neural network (NN), while the long-range preview is predicted based on a Bayesian network (BN). The predictions are updated in real-time based on the current state of traffic and incorporated into a multihorizon model predictive control (MH-MPC) for integrated power and thermal management (iPTM) of connected vehicles. The results of design and evaluation of the performance of the proposed data-informed MH-MPC for iPTM of connected hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) using traffic data for real-world city driving are reported.

Automation & Control Systems↗

DOE OSTI2021

Physical, resource supply, and biological controls on nutrient processing along the river continuum

Nutrient impairment has led to damages to US surface and groundwater systems in excess of 100 billion dollars per year. Therefore, there is a strong need to develop methods to predict the transport, uptake, and export of nutrients along fluvial networks. We present results that are based on a data-driven mechanistic understanding of three factors that largely control nutrient uptake and export: 1) interactions between transport-related processes (mass transfer to metabolically active zones), 2) resource supply dynamics (nutrient concentration, stoichiometric constraints, etc.), and 3) biological controls (microbial community structure and function). Our results were generated from column experiments conducted along the Jemez River-Rio Grande continuum, which spans four orders of magnitude in mean annual discharge, more than 2000 m in altitude, and more than 500 km of stream longitude. Two resource supply injections were performed on each of the columns, i.e., a nitrate only addition, followed by a stoichiometrically ‘balanced’ 106Carbon:16Nitrogen:1Phosphorus addition. We quantified NO3-N uptake kinetics while constraining three variables: stream order, sediment type and type of injection (N vs stoichiometrically ‘balanced’ C:N:P). Following the laboratory nutrient uptake experiments, the columns were destructively sampled and the contents were homogenized to collect subsamples for DNA sequencing. Amplicon analysis was carried out as described by the Earth Microbiome Protocol for 16s and ITS sequencing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical Distribution System Adaptive Restoration with Diverse Distributed Energy Resources

Distributed energy resources (DERs) can be utilized as alternative power sources for fast service recovery in cases of distribution system outages. However, the diverse characteristics and stochastic nature of DERs impose challenges on the optimal operation of di-verse resources during the restoration phase. Here, we introduce a hierarchical structure to coordinate distribution system entities and propose an adaptive restoration strategy to sustain a reliable power supply to outage loads in an unbalanced distribution system utilizing DERs. An efficient system reconfiguration model is developed to guarantee the radiality of restoration islands. The flexibility of DERs is evaluated by a novel method that focuses on the cumulative energy consumption, the superiority of which is also proven. Model predictive control (MPC) is adopted to enable the adjustment of system topology and DER operation strategies based on up-to-date data. The performance of the proposed restoration model is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Moreover, the effectiveness of the proposed novel flexibility assessment and the MPC-based adaptive restoration strategy are verified through comparative studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enzyme activities predicted by metabolite concentrations and solvent capacity in the cell

Experimental measurements or computational model predictions of the post-translational regulation of enzymes needed in a metabolic pathway is a difficult problem. Consequently, regulation is mostly known only for well-studied reactions of central metabolism in various model organisms. In this study, we use two approaches to predict enzyme regulation policies and investigate the hypothesis that regulation is driven by the need to maintain the solvent capacity in the cell. The first predictive method uses a statistical thermodynamics and metabolic control theory framework while the second method is performed using a hybrid optimization–reinforcement learning approach. Efficient regulation schemes were learned from experimental data that either agree with theoretical calculations or result in a higher cell fitness using maximum useful work as a metric. As previously hypothesized, regulation is herein shown to control the concentrations of both immediate and downstream product concentrations at physiological levels. Model predictions provide the following two novel general principles: (1) the regulation itself causes the reactions to be much further from equilibrium instead of the common assumption that highly non-equilibrium reactions are the targets for regulation; and (2) the minimal regulation needed to maintain metabolite levels at physiological concentrations maximizes the free energy dissipation rate instead of preserving a specific energy charge. The resulting energy dissipation rate is an emergent property of regulation which may be represented by a high value of the adenylate energy charge. In addition, the predictions demonstrate that the amount of regulation needed can be minimized if it is applied at the beginning or branch point of a pathway, in agreement with common notions. The approach is demonstrated for three pathways in the central metabolism of E. coli (gluconeogenesis, glycolysis-tricarboxylic acid (TCA) and pentose phosphate-TCA) that each require different regulation schemes. It is shown quantitatively that hexokinase, glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase and glyceraldehyde phosphate dehydrogenase, all branch points of pathways, play the largest roles in regulating central metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Trigger Linkage Dynamics in Energetic Materials Using Mixed Picramide Nitrate Ester Explosives

The ability to predict the handling sensitivity of new organic energetic materials has been a longstanding goal. We report the synthesis and characterization of six new nitropicramide energetic materials with mixed functional groups that mimic known explosives such as nitroglycerin, erythritol tetranitrate (ETN), and pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). The molecules have been studied theoretically using quantum molecular dynamics (QMD) simulations and density functional theory (DFT) calculations to identify the weakest bond in the reactants - the trigger-linkages - which control handling sensitivity, and to quantify their specific enthalpies of explosion. In good accord with the drop weight impact sensitivity data, our calculations predict that the sensitivities of the molecules are very similar owing to the small variations of the energy output and rates of trigger linkage rupture. In addition, both the QMD and DFT calculations point to the nitropicramide N–NO 2 bonds as the trigger linkages rather than the more typical O–NO 2 bonds. We propose that the switch of the trigger linkage from the nitrate esters to the nitramine groups arises from the strongly electron withdrawing character of the adjacent trinitrobenzene groups.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Recent advances in plasma control and physics research in the Large Helical Device

The Large Helical Device (LHD), the largest superconducting helical system in the world, is equipped with advanced heating and diagnostic tools, facilitating plasma control and physics research. Data assimilation was employed for electron temperature control using a real-time Thomson scattering system and real time prediction code. A virtual LHD environment enabled visualization of escaping high-energy tritium ions and demonstrated that these ions impact the rear side of the divertor plate. Pioneering results crucial to plasma control have also been achieved. Real-time wall conditioning using Lithium granule dropping improved bulk ion energy and particle transport while simultaneously enhancing the heavy impurity transport. Progress has also been made in the investigation of turbulence-driven transport. At the confinement bifurcation, ion-scale turbulence decreased, while electron-scale turbulence increased. A change in the anisotropy of turbulent eddies was also observed at the confinement bifurcation. Coexistence of local and non-local turbulence was identified in electron-scale turbulence. Non-local turbulence exhibited the rapid spatial propagation of perturbations throughout the plasma, while local turbulence followed the temperature gradient. A transition between drift-wave turbulence and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) turbulence was observed with the turbulence minimized at the transition condition. Machine learning analysis was employed to evaluate the temperate and density conditions of this turbulence transition. Then, real-time control of fueling and heating was applied to maintain the turbulence transition condition, improving the energy confinement enhancement factor by 20%. In addition, evidence was obtained for collisionless ion heating by energetic-ion-driven geodesic acoustic modes and MHD bursts. These achievements represent unique contributions to the development of fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A smart alarm for particle accelerator beamline operations

We present the initial results of a proof-of-concept 'smart alarm' for the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility injector beamline at Jefferson Lab. To minimize machine downtime and improve operational efficiency, an autonomous alarm system able to identify and diagnose unusual machine states is needed. Our approach leverages a trained neural network capable of alerting operators (a) when an anomalous condition exists in the beamline and (b) identifying the element setting that is the root cause. The tool is based on an inverse model that maps beamline readings (diagnostic readbacks) to settings (beamline attributes operators can modify). The model takes as input readings from the machine and computes machine settings which are compared to control setpoints. Instances where predictions differ from setpoints by a user-defined threshold are flagged as anomalous. Given data corresponding to 354 anomalous injector configurations, the model can narrow the root cause of an anomalous condition to three potential candidates with 94.6% accuracy. Furthermore, compared to the current method of identifying anomalous conditions which raises an alarm when machine parameters drift outside their normal tolerances, the data-driven model can identify 83% more anomalous conditions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for leptoquark pair production decaying into $te^- \bar{t}e^+$ or $t\mu ^- \bar{t}\mu ^+$ in multi-lepton final states in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13\,\textrm{TeV}$ with the ATLAS detector

A search for leptoquark pair production decaying into $te^- \bar{t}e^+$ or $t\mu ^- \bar{t}\mu ^+$ in final states with multiple leptons is presented. The search is based on a dataset of pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13~\text {TeV}$ recorded with the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . Four signal regions, with the requirement of at least three light leptons (electron or muon) and at least two jets out of which at least one jet is identified as coming from a b-hadron, are considered based on the number of leptons of a given flavour. The main background processes are estimated using dedicated control regions in a simultaneous fit with the signal regions to data. No excess above the Standard Model background prediction is observed and 95% confidence level limits on the production cross section times branching ratio are derived as a function of the leptoquark mass. Under the assumption of exclusive decays into $te^{-}$ ($t\mu ^{-}$ ), the corresponding lower limit on the scalar mixed-generation leptoquark mass $m_{\textrm{LQ}_{\textrm{mix}}^{\textrm{d}}}$ is at 1.58 (1.59) TeV and on the vector leptoquark mass $m_{{\tilde{U}}_1}$ at 1.67 (1.67) TeV in the minimal coupling scenario and at 1.95 (1.95) TeV in the Yang–Mills scenario.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development and Evaluation of Occupancy-Aware HVAC Control for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Occupant Comfort

Occupancy-aware heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) control offers the opportunity to reduce energy use without sacrificing thermal comfort. Residential HVAC systems often use manually-adjusted or constant setpoint temperatures, which heat and cool the house regardless of whether it is needed. By incorporating occupancy-awareness into HVAC control, heating and cooling can be used for only those time periods it is needed. Yet, bringing this technology to fruition is dependent on accurately predicting occupancy. Non-probabilistic prediction models offer an opportunity to use collected occupancy data to predict future occupancy profiles. Smart devices, such as a connected thermostat, which already include occupancy sensors, can be used to provide a continually growing collection of data that can then be harnessed for short-term occupancy prediction by compiling and creating a binary occupancy prediction. Real occupancy data from six homes located in Colorado is analyzed and investigated using this occupancy prediction model. Results show that non-probabilistic occupancy models in combination with occupancy sensors can be combined to provide a hybrid HVAC control with savings on average of 5.0% and without degradation of thermal comfort. Model predictive control provides further opportunities, with the ability to adjust the relative importance between thermal comfort and energy savings to achieve savings between 1% and 13.3% depending on the relative weighting between thermal comfort and energy savings. In all cases, occupancy prediction allows the opportunity for a more intelligent and optimized strategy to residential HVAC control.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Multi-Source Data for Bi-Level Traffic Simulator Calibration: A Literature Review and Highway Case Study

Traffic simulation serves as a powerful tool for pre-evaluating policies and technologies. In this context, simulation-based Dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models are capable of capturing traffic dynamics. They are well-known as critical tools in controlling and predicting traffic situations. The reliability of simulation results heavily depends on the calibration process. Most studies in the literature formulate and calibrate simulators based on a single source of collected data or multiple data sets with the same spatiotemporal characteristics. However, in practice, traffic data is collected by various tools with usually different spatial and temporal resolutions. This study introduces a novel approach to taking into account diverse input data from a variety of sources. An iterative bi-level solution is proposed. to equally treat traffic flow and speed data. The upper level solves flow calibration with the exact solution method, and the lower level calibrates the speed with the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm. Subsequently, the effectiveness of the proposed model is investigated using data from a six-mile section of Nashville's I-24 highway in Tennessee. The results demonstrate that our proposed model creates an effective feedback loop between the optimizer and the simulator for calibrating flow and speed to reduce the error between simulated and real data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Tool Data Analytics for Digital Twin and Machine Predictive Maintenance

The primary objective of this project is to improve machining process performance using in-process machining data from the machine tool controller and external sensors. Advances in the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) enable monitoring of machines using controller data. Examples of the data provided by a controller include execution status of the controller, part count, block of code being executed, door status, tool position, the spindle and axis load, etc. MTConnect and OPC-UA are the two common protocols for capturing machine information. In this collaboration, methods for retrieving the machine controller data from selected machine tool controls and making these data accessible in different subsystems (such as digital twins and machine maintenance portals, etc.) will be developed and tested. In addition, analytics to improve machining process performance (by increasing productivity and reducing downtime) will be developed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Sensitivity of ICF Outputs to Design Parameters in Experiments Using Machine Learning

We report building a sustainable burn platform in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) requires an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes and the effects that key experimental design changes have on implosion performance. While simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, incomplete physics and the need for approximations deteriorate their predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs and measurable outcomes can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, which can potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF implosions. In this article, we leverage developments in machine learning (ML) and methods for ML feature importance/sensitivity analysis to identify complex relationships in ways that are difficult to process using expert judgment alone. We present work using random forest (RF) regression for prediction of yield, velocity, and other experimental outcomes given a suite of design parameters, along with an assessment of important relationships and uncertainties in the prediction model. We show that RF models are capable of learning and predicting on ICF experimental data with high accuracy, and we extract feature importance metrics that provide insight into the physical significance of different controllable design inputs for various ICF design configurations. These results can be used to augment expert intuition and simulation results for optimal design of future ICF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power System Frequency Dynamics Modeling, State Estimation, and Control using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) Machine Learning Approaches

With the global energy transition of the electric power system, grid control, supervision, and protection is becoming more challenging. With the increasing integration of renewable energy sources (RES), the system dynamics are changing, causing traditional power system dynamic modeling with swing equation-based modeling approaches to fail. Additionally, the converter-dominated power grid is decreasing the system inertia, making the power system more fragile to the frequency swings. This paper first investigates and compares the application of a model-based Kalman filter state estimation approach with (i) a model-free machine learning approach --- neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) --- and (ii) a data-driven system identification (SysId) approach to model and infer critical state values of the power system frequency dynamics. Then a model predictive control (MPC) framework is compared to a model-free Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) reinforcement learning (RL) control algorithm in providing efficient fast frequency response (FFR) to the power system frequency dynamics. The approaches are compared in terms of their performance goals as well as their per-timestep computational efficiency. Furthermore, the comparative study for state estimation shows that for the model-free requirement, both NODEs and SysId can provide accurate state estimates; however, with increasing model complexity, NODEs can be a better choice for model identification. Similarly, the results from the FFR comparative study show that the SAC RL-based FFR, once trained, outperforms MPC with better control signals and faster computation time, making the SAC RL-based FFR better option for providing FFR to the power system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Online Learning of Effective Turbine Wind Speed in Wind Farms

To develop better wind farm controllers that can meet more complex objectives, methods of modeling the wind turbine wakes at low computational expense are needed. Gaussian process (GP) regression offers a computationally inexpensive framework for learning complex functions from noisy measurements with very few datapoints. In this work, an online learning approach is presented to learn the rotor-averaged wind velocity at downstream wind turbines with GPs, using the available datastream of wind field measurements and wind turbine control set-points. This framework can readily be integrated into model-based controls methods because the model a) is updated online at low computational expense, b) assumes a mathematically favorable Gaussian form, and c) explicitly quantifies the stochastic nature of the wake field so that the trade-off between exploration and exploitation, and the uncertainty in the prediction, can be utilized. We show that a GP-learned model can match true values with errors within 0.5% on average, with as few as 5 training data points.

Gaussian process↗

DOE OSTI2020

Long-Term Vehicle Speed Prediction via Historical Traffic Data Analysis for Improved Energy Efficiency of Connected Electric Vehicles

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to provide enhanced safety, mobility, and energy efficiency. While abundant evidence has been accumulated showing substantial energy saving potentials of CAVs through eco-driving, traffic condition prediction has remained to be the main challenge in capitalizing the gains. The coupled power and thermal subsystems of CAVs necessitate the use of different speed preview windows for effective and integrated power and thermal management. Real-time vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications can provide an accurate speed prediction over a short prediction horizon (e.g., 30 s to 60 s), but not for a long range (e.g., over 180 s). Therefore, advanced approaches are required to develop detailed speed prediction for robust optimization-based energy management of CAVs. This paper presents an integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data classification and real-time V2I communications for efficient energy management of electrified CAVs. The proposed framework provides multi-range speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The proposed multi-range speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs). The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the proposed data classification strategy over a long prediction horizon. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAVs’ speed predictions, the vehicle-level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal driving (i.e., human driver) and conventional BTM strategy.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

The L-CAPE Project at FNAL

The controls system at FNAL records data asynchronously from several thousand Linac devices at their respective cadences, ranging from 15Hz down to once per minute. In case of downtimes, current operations are mostly reactive, investigating the cause of an outage and labeling it after the fact. However, as one of the most upstream systems at the FNAL accelerator complex, the Linac’s foreknowledge of an impending downtime as well as its duration could prompt downstream systems to go into standby, potentially leading to energy savings. The goals of the Linac Condition Anomaly Prediction of Emergence (L-CAPE) project that started in late 2020 are (1) to apply data-analytic methods to improve the information that is available to operators in the control room, and (2) to use machine learning to automate the labeling of outage types as they occur and discover patterns in the data that could lead to the prediction of outages. We present an overview of the challenges in dealing with time-series data from 2000+ devices, our approach to developing an ML-based automated outage labeling system, and the status of augmenting operations by identifying the most likely devices predicting an outage.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-range vehicle speed prediction using vehicle connectivity for enhanced energy efficiency of vehicles

An integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data mining and real-time V2I communications for CAVs. The present framework provides multi-horizon speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The present multi-horizon speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs) as a case study. The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the present data mining strategy over long prediction horizons. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAV speed predictions, the vehicle level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal-driving and conventional BTM strategy.

Amini, Mohammad Reza↗

DOE OSTI2023

ML-based Real-Time Control at the Edge: An Approach Using hls4ml

This study focuses on implementing a real-time control system for a particle accelerator facility that performs high energy physics experiments. A critical operating parameter in this facility is beam loss, which is the fraction of particles deviating from the accelerated proton beam into a cascade of secondary particles. Accelerators employ a large number of sensors to monitor beam loss. The data from these sensors is monitored by human operators who predict the relative contribution of different sub-systems to the beam loss. Using this information, they engage control interventions. In this paper, we present a controller to track this phenomenon in real-time using edge-Machine Learning (ML) and support control with low latency and high accuracy. We implemented this system on an Intel Arria 10 SoC. Optimizations at the algorithm, high-level synthesis, and interface levels to improve latency and resource usage are presented. Our design implements a neural network, which can predict the main source of beam loss (between two possible causes) at speeds up to 575 frames per second (fps) (average latency of 1.74 ms). The practical deployed system is required to operate at 320 fps, with a 3ms latency requirement, which has been met by our design successfully.

Shi, R.↗