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At least 217 records · Page 12

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Detecting multi‐scale riverine topographic variability and its influence on Chinook salmon habitat selection

Abstract Quantifying geomorphic conditions that impact riverine ecosystems is critical in river management due to degraded riverine habitat, changing flow and thermal conditions, and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Geomorphic complexity at different scales directly impacts habitat heterogeneity and affects aquatic biodiversity resilience. Here we showed that the combination of continuous spatial survey at high resolution, topobathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR), and continuous wavelet analysis can help identify and characterize that complexity. We used a continuous wavelet analysis on 1‐m resolution topobathymetry in three rivers in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho (USA), to identify different scales of topographic variability and the potential effects of this variability on salmonid redd site selection. On each river, wavelet scales characterized the topographic variability by portraying repeating patterns in the longitudinal profile. We found three major representative spatial wavelet scales of topographic variability in each river: a small wavelet scale associated with local morphology such as pools and riffles, a mid‐wavelet scale that identified larger channel unit features, and a large wavelet scale related to valley‐scale controls. The small wavelet scale was used to identify pools and riffles along the entire lengths of each river as well as areas with differing riffle‐pool development. Areas along the rivers with high local topographic variability (high wavelet power) at all wavelet scales contained the largest features (i.e., deepest or longest pools) in the systems. By comparing the wavelet power for each wavelet scale to Chinook salmon redd locations, we found that higher small‐scale wavelet power, which is related to pool‐riffle topography, is important for redd site selection. The continuous wavelet methodology objectively identified scales of topographic variability present in these rivers, performed efficient channel‐unit identification, and provided geomorphic assessment without laborious field surveys.

Duffin, Jenna↗

Data Projection of the High Temperature Electrolysis System in the Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory using Dynamic System Scaling

For nuclear power to be flexible in a functioning Integrated Energy System (IES), excess produced heat must be stored or utilized during times of low power demand to ensure a load factor of 1 while load balancing. The Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) is one facility that is under development to emulate IES conditions on the engineering-scale, planned to conduct virtual real time operations with industry-scale facilities, and is currently testing thermal storage and high temperature electrolysis. As part of the study to develop a method to preprocess input signals or postprocess output signals between systems of different scales via Dynamical System Scaling (DSS), the current research is one of the continued efforts branching from the data projection activity conducted for the Thermal Energy Distribution System and currently engages the High Temperature Electrolysis (HTE) System in DETAIL. The HTE SOEC electrical, fluid, and thermal dynamics Figure of Merits (FOM) were identified, governing equations and closure relations were successfully scaled, and relations between FOM scaling ratios were determined. Setting the scaling objectives to reform existing data to project a data set that doubly accelerated the electrolysis process while preserving the produced amount of hydrogen was generated for the full transient. The calculated boundary conditions were inlet temperature, stack current, and inlet steam mass flow rate at 1470 K, 121.1 A, and 1.886 g/s, respectively. The research outcomes demonstrated an output signal postprocessing case accelerating the hydrogen production without changing geometry, number of cells, and partial pressures.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Analysis of Random Forest Modeling Strategies for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting

Although the random forest (RF) model is a powerful machine learning tool that has been utilized in many wind speed/power forecasting studies, there has been no consensus on optimal RF modeling strategies. This study investigates three basic questions which aim to assist in the discernment and quantification of the effects of individual model properties, namely: (1) using a standalone RF model versus using RF as a correction mechanism for the persistence approach, (2) utilizing a recursive versus direct multi-step forecasting strategy, and (3) training data availability on model forecasting accuracy from one to six hours ahead. These questions are investigated utilizing data from the FINO1 offshore platform and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, and testing results are compared to the persistence method. At FINO1, due to the presence of multiple wind farms and high inter-annual variability, RF is more effective as an error-correction mechanism for the persistence approach. The direct forecasting strategy is seen to slightly outperform the recursive strategy, specifically for forecasts three or more steps ahead. Finally, increased data availability (up to ~8 equivalent years of hourly training data) appears to continually improve forecasting accuracy, although changing environmental flow patterns have the potential to negate such improvement. We hope that the findings of this study will assist future researchers and industry professionals to construct accurate, reliable RF models for wind speed forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Out of the Lab: 3D Printing on Non-Ideal Surfaces

In this work, coaxial direct ink writing is utilized to print sensitive or encapsulated materials onto heterogeneous and rough substrates. By enclosing the core fluid within a rigid ceramic shell, continuity is maintained even when printing on substrates traditionally considered challenging. This work presents the development of a coaxial ceramic direct ink writing system and investigates co-flow dynamics through microfluidic principles. A specially designed coaxial nozzle enables the co-extrusion of an alumina shell, with indium-tin-oxide inks serving as the core material. This approach allows the fabrication of core-shell ceramic structures suitable for future high-temperature applications on rough surfaces. The colloidal inks are tailored to achieve the necessary rheological properties and sintering performance. Additionally, flow simulations, guided by microfluidic co-flow principles, are employed to define the processing parameters for coaxial printing, ensuring precise control over the core-shell architectures. Physical modeling is further applied to study core deformation and eccentricity. These simulations are experimentally validated, supporting the successful deposition of coaxial ceramic features on heterogeneous, high-temperature ceramic substrates.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Wind Loading on Parabolic Trough Collectors: Wind and Structural Loads Measurements at an Operational Powerplant

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) is a promising method for using solar power for electricity generation with thermal energy storage for industrial applications. Solar collectors constitute almost 1/3 of the total cost of the power plant. One of the primary drivers of unrealiability of these collectors is wind-driven loading of mirrors, support structures, and drives. To date, the design of the solar collector structures has relied on data from wind tunnels that do not adequately capture the dynamic effects observed at scale. NREL initiated a field measurement campaign at the operational Nevada Solar One (NSO) parabolic trough powerplant. At this plant, parabolic trough solar collectors track the sun from east to west in the course of a day and face varying wind loads depending on the wind properties and the angle of the troughs. The aim of the project is a detailed characterization of prevailing wind and turbulence conditions and resulting operational loads on parabolic troughs, providing insights into structural dynamic response, and generating a comprehensive wind-loading dataset for validating simulations of wind loading on collector structures. The measurements at NSO consist of sonic anemometers on masts at different heights to characterize the incoming flow and conditions at four trough rows at the edge of the trough field. In addition, a Doppler Lidar scans the horizontal plane above the troughs. The wind measurements at NSO have been continuously collecting data since October 2021 and are combined with structural load measurements that started in November 2022. The load measurements were installed on the same four outermost trough rows and include support structure bending moments, drive torque moments, dynamic accelerations of the spaceframe, mirror displacement, and tilt angles. Measurements are planned to continue until May 2023, providing a first-of-a-kind, high-resolution multi-month dataset of combined wind and load measurements. In this presentation, we show first results of the measurement campaign. Based on the measurements, we identified three main factors altering the flow over the parabolic troughs: Wind speed, wind direction, and the angle of the parabolic troughs. Most interactions between incoming wind and the trough field are observed when the wind blows perpendicular to the trough rows. In this case, the first rows experience the highest wind speed and block the downwind rows, creating conditions with decreased wind speed and enhanced turbulence within the trough field. Also, turbulent length scales are smaller after the first row. This leads to the highest static loads (bending and torque moments) at the first row but potentially increased dynamic loads within the field. We illustrate our findings with case studies focused on different wind conditions and will present fatigue analysis to highlight the impact of wind-driven loads on collector structures.

CSP collectors↗

Developing Renewable Energy Applications for Water Treatment Technologies and Transmission

The need for smaller treatment facilities for more isolated or rural municipal entities and industrial water treatment facilities continues to grow. From environmental justice and energy needs in remote communities that have never been serviced by larger scale utilities to smaller onsite treatment requirements to meet discharge regulations, energy efficient treatment systems that can leverage renewable energy sources can be an important asset to owners. Climate change and population dynamics have changed the needs for distributed water treatment systems and the manner in which they function. New treatment technologies that can operate under dynamic conditions and leverage variable energy sources (e.g., renewable energy, RE) can provide substantial efficiencies and cost savings. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is embarking on research projects that will perform multi-scale studies to investigate treatment technologies on varying source water quality that can operate under unsteady state flow conditions (timing) in response to energy availability, supply, and demand. A pilot-scale system will be built to assess modularity and scaling of treatment system operating conditions and performance. Modeling will also be used to determine feasibility and integration into grid emulation platforms to understand the use and value of operation with RE. Optimization will be completed for the treatment and distribution systems to document strengths and weaknesses of using RE power sources. Results of this effort will advance dynamic water treatment understanding under variable conditions and integration of RE sources to power these systems. This will lead to further decarbonization of municipal and private treatment facilities while supporting a paradigm shift in water treatment process operation and system design to achieve net-zero goals and move toward energy-sensitive resilient water treatment systems.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Simulation of Liquid Lithium Divertor Geometry Using SOLPS-ITER

Here, plasma-facing component (PFC) geometries are evaluated for a Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) design to find solutions that are compatible with flowing liquid lithium components while satisfying requirements from the perspective of plasma and neutral particle transport. Flowing liquid metal (LM) divertor systems offer important advantages due to continual regeneration of the surface material, but may require modifications from standard optimized tokamak divertor designs. Scrape Off Layer Plasma Simulator for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (SOLPS-ITER) simulations are used to compare standard vertical target, open, and balanced baffled geometries. It is found that the open geometry offers little control of neutral particles and has narrow operating windows where the divertor fluxes can be lowered to acceptable levels, while maintaining the required upstream density. The addition of neutral baffles allows greater control over the divertor conditions with less impact on the upstream density. The divertor neutral pressure in the baffled geometry is slightly higher than the open divertor, but not as large with a vertical target. A first-pass coupling of the SOLPS solution with sheath and implantation/erosion models to compute the lithium emission shows that the lithium is largely confined to the near-surface region due to the small ionization mean free path and large main ion flow toward the surface. The lithium source was varied by three orders of magnitude. At the highest rate, when the sourced lithium approaches the level of the main ion recycling flux, a high core lithium concentration (~10%) is observed with only moderate power dissipation to affect the divertor plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Power Takeoff Device for a Small Marine Hydrokinetic Turbine Deployed from an Unmanned Floating Platform

The design, development, and field-testing of a power takeoff (PTO) device equipped with a ball-type continuously-variable transmission (B-CVT) for a small marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbine deployed from a floating unmanned autonomous mobile catamaran platform is described. The turbine is a partially-submerged multi-blade undershot waterwheel (USWW). The objective is to develop a PTO for the optimal conversion of the MHK energy harnessed by the turbine to electric power, which is stored in battery banks onboard the MHK platform. Modeling, simulation, and bench testing of the USWW and PTO show the feasibility of utilizing the B-CVT's variable gear ratio to decouple the USWW and generator speeds, maintaining the waterwheel within its optimal tip speed ratio (TSR) while varying the generator speed, thereby increasing the efficiency of the PTO. Results of bench and field testing in support of characterizing the power conversion capabilities of the PTO are described. The system being developed is in support of potential self-powered autonomous mobile recharge stations for unmanned aerial vehicles (U A V s) operating in coastal zones. Field tests of the complete MHK platform with 9 blades on the waterwheel and wheel sub mergences of 10 and 12 inches (full blade submergence) were performed. The overall proof-of-concept was successfully demonstrated, with the system satisfactorily capturing and converting water flow energy into electricity. The feasibility of utilizing the B-CVT as a means of increasing the PTO power capture capabilities and efficiency is analyzed.

Pimentel, Hugo↗

Geothermal Deep Direct Use for Turbine Inlet Cooling in East Texas

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory (SMU), Eastman Chemical (Longview, TX), and TAS (Houston, TX) evaluated the feasibility of using geothermal heat to improve the performance of a natural-gas power plant in East Texas. The area of interest is the Eastman Chemical plant in Longview, Texas, which is on the northwestern margin of a geologic region known as the Sabine Uplift. The feasibility study focused on determining the potential for accessing a subsurface hot-water geothermal resource within a 10-km radius of the site to provide thermal energy for absorption chillers. Wells within a 20-km radius are included for broader geological comparison to determine the heat flow, temperature-at-depth, field porosity and permeability. The lithologies of most interest are the Lower Cretaceous Trinity Group and Upper Jurassic Cotton Valley Group. The deeper Cotton Valley formations are hotter (averaging 117 to 130°C), yet permeability and porosity are low. The shallower Trinity Group contains more variability in permeability and porosity and lower temperatures averaging about 98 to 117°C. The shallower formations are considered despite the lower temperature because of increased ability to produce larger volumes of water and extract enough heat before reinjection. The complete SMU analysis is available in the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS). Tapping such deep geothermal sources for direct heating (as opposed to power generation) is known as geothermal deep direct use (DDU). Geothermal DDU has potential across a wide swath of the United States but is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for what are typically small-scale, variable-demand projects. This project examines the feasibility of geothermal energy integration in a natural-gas combined cycle power station in East Texas. The DDU resource is tapped to drive absorption chillers (24/7) for production of chilled water at 5-10°C (41-50°F). This chilled water is stored until needed, which allows for continuous operation with a relatively small-capacity geothermal/absorption chiller system. When conditions are favorable, the chilled water is dispatched to cool the air entering the compressor stage of a gas combustion turbine. This process, known as turbine inlet cooling (TIC), boosts power production during periods of high temperature and high-power demand. Such systems can enhance grid reliability and reduce the cost for peak-demand power. A simulation model of the power plant was developed in IPSEpro software and validated against operational data from the plant. This model allowed the team to estimate the additional power that could be produced by applying TIC under different operating and ambient conditions. Absorption chiller performance was estimated from vendor sources to determine the production rate of chilled water from the geothermal resource. Geothermal drilling and development costs were estimated using NREL's GEOPHIRES 2.0. The expected lower drilling costs in this region led to an estimated cost of geothermal heat of about $4/MMBtu (1.4 cents/kWh t ). The estimated cost for the absorption chillers and TIC hardware were obtained from literature sources and project partners. Hourly data were obtained for weather, natural gas and electricity prices, and plant operating state for 2017, which served as a representative year. NREL estimated the capital cost, operating cost, and additional electricity production and revenue for different combinations of geothermal capacity, chiller capacity, and water storage-tank size. The analysis drove toward smaller geothermal and chiller systems to reduce equipment cost. A relatively low-cost water storage tank accumulated the near-continuous chilled water output for later use when TIC was most valued.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Full-scale validation gaps and opportunities for low-head hydropower: a review and perspective

Hydropower is undergoing technological innovation as future development increasingly targets low-head sites (<10 m), primarily through retrofits, rehabilitation, and upgrades of existing infrastructure. This shift toward smaller systems creates a timely opportunity: unlike conventional large projects, many emerging low-head technologies may be small enough for direct full-scale validation. Full-scale testing is particularly important for environmental mitigation technologies, including fish passage, sediment continuity, and water-quality improvements, whose performance is difficult to assess reliably using reduced-scale models. Yet adoption remains constrained by the limited risk-bearing capacity of small hydropower owners, discouraging manufacturers from bringing unvalidated technologies to market. This review and perspective paper examines hydropower trends driving innovation, selected emerging technologies, conventional testing methods, and current U.S. testing capabilities as a case study. We then evaluate the gap between existing capabilities and the needs of low-head powertrains and environmental mitigation measures. Many technologies exceed existing facility flow capacities; in the U.S., the highest combined head–flow capability is limited to 5.66 m3/s, compared with median and 90th-percentile low-head turbine-unit flows of 14.3 and 60 m3/s. To mitigate this gap, we advocate repurposing large, retired, or underused hydraulic infrastructure as full-scale testing facilities to reduce first-adoption risk and support sustainable low-head hydropower deployment.

Tseng, Chien-Yung [Colorado State University, Fort↗

Implementing Superresolution of Nonstationary Tides with Wavelets: An Introduction to CWT_Multi

Abstract Tides are often nonstationary due to nonastronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a trade-off between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short analysis windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a MATLAB code that 1) uses CWT linearity (via the “response coefficient method”) to implement superresolution, i.e., resolving tidal constituents beyond the Rayleigh criterion; 2) provides a Munk–Hasselmann constituent selection criterion appropriate for superresolution; and 3) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time scales of days, and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s), and reconstruction(s); confidence limits; and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K 1 , S 1 , and P 1 ) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power peaking (with a 24-h period, like S 1 ) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify the impacts of high flows and a salt barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to nonstationary data. Significance Statement Ocean tides, especially in coastal and estuarine systems, are often nonstationary, in the sense that the mean and standard deviation of tidal properties vary over time, usually in response to some nontidal process. We introduce here a MATLAB code, CWT_Multi, that uses wavelet transforms to resolve both tidal species and constituents on time scales from a few days to months. Our code accommodates multiple scalar time series and has typical tidal analysis features like constituent selection and inference, plus two forms of uncertainty analyses. It is flexible, allowing the user to adapt analysis properties to diverse datasets. CWT_Multi is applicable to many problems involving time-variable tides, including sea level rise, compound flooding, sediment transport, and wetland habitat analyses. Application to vector data is a straightforward extension, but further development of our uncertainty analysis is merited. Because nonstationary tidal analysis is rapidly advancing, we also define the features of a “well-formed” analysis code.

Lobo, Matthew↗

Analysis of Hydrology and Interim Measure Performance in the Chromium Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20498

Hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), is present in the regional aquifer beneath Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) at concentrations greater than the New Mexico groundwater standard (50 ppb). The source of the Cr is blowdown from a power plant where potassium dichromate was used as a corrosion inhibitor from 1956 to 1972. Blowdown comingled with effluent from another source and migrated approximately 3 miles down a canyon, primarily as surface flow, until reaching an alluvial infiltration zone. The infiltrating water moved vertically through a thick (approximately 900 ft), complex stratigraphic sequence of unsaturated tuffs, basalt, and unconsolidated alluvial deposits. Horizontal transport also took place within spatially limited perched groundwater horizons in the vadose zone (VZ). Breakthrough at the regional aquifer water table is thought to have occurred in multiple hydraulic windows or 'drip points' located approximately 3 miles from the initial release site at the power plant. The regional aquifer is highly heterogeneous and anisotropic, and displays unconfined behavior in an upper zone and confined behavior at depth. The Cr(VI) contamination has so far remained confined to the upper approximately 25 m of the aquifer. The ambient hydraulic gradient in the regional aquifer is toward the east/southeast, but the water table is extremely flat in the Cr plume area compared to surrounding areas. There is some local variability in flow direction, potentially related to effects of seasonal pumping from nearby Los Alamos county water-supply wells, which draw from the regional aquifer several hundred feet below the water table. An interim measure (IM) is currently operating at the site to achieve hydraulic control of plume migration using a series of extraction wells, ion-exchange treatment, and injection along the downgradient portion of the plume. The migration of Cr contamination in the aquifer has been previously evaluated using a calibrated probabilistic numerical model, which has also been used to design the spatial configuration of extraction and injection wells for the IM, and to identify locations for monitoring wells. The model is built using the Finite Element Heat and Mass (FEHM) transfer code, and the Model Analysis and Decision Support (MADS) software is used for analyses. To date, the portion of the IM system that has operated in a continuous manner has been very effective at hydraulic control. Modifications to the flow field associated with the influence of IM pumping and injection are evaluated here, with modeling constraints to be provided by recent observations of tracers injected into both monitoring wells and IM injection wells, as well as opportunistic observations of geochemical signatures of treated ion-exchange effluent injected into IM injection wells. The tracer and geochemical data provide insights into modified flow directions within the Cr plume area that cannot be otherwise obtained. Results of the modeling work are being used to inform adaptive management of IM operations and will be a valuable tool for development and refinement of long-term remediation strategies. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Analysis of Lobe Power Calculator and Indication System with Physics and Cycle Based Models

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at INL measures reactor power through various methods, two of them being thermal and Nitrogen-16 (N-16) activity. Water power calculator (WPC) is a thermal power system that measures flow and temperature to determine thermal quadrant powers. The N-16 system utilizes a beta detector that outputs Nitrogen activation levels to calculate lobe power through an algorithm called Lobe Power Calculation and Indication system (LPCIS). The LPCIS utilizes the N-16 system and the WPC system to determine reactor core power levels. The WPC provides accurate calculations of quadrant and total reactor thermal power. With the use of WPC measurements, thermal-to-N-16 (T2N) power ratios are produced to determine if the two indication systems agree on core power. Relative magnitude equations are used to utilize N-16 coefficients and multipliers to improve the indications of the LPCIS. These correct indications are crucial for maintaining safety limits because operators rely on this information for decision making. Currently, the LPCIS system uses linear equations and matrices to calculate lobe power through multipliers and coefficients. Advancements in technology and system upgrades have increased the accuracy of power readings by making the system more dynamic. The new proposed coefficient and multiplier method implements a cycle specific and physics-based model intended for changing coefficients during operation. This calibration experiment focused on power splitting, outer shim and neck shim, as well as fuel burning into the reactor digital acquisition system (RDAS) weighting factors. Results demonstrated that the physics learning method yields a smaller error margin inside of the desired power range for the data set 166-A. Continuing to improve the physics-based model will help improve the power accuracy of the LPCIS system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

X-Ray Spectroscopic Studies of X-Pinch Plasmas with 3-5 Picosecond Resolution: A Quest for Clear Experimental Evidence for Radiative Collapse in the X-ray Spectra (Final Report)

Dense Z-pinch plasmas produced from current-carrying exploding wires frequently produce very brief (less than 0.1 nanosecond), intense, bursts of soft X-rays from tiny (about 1 micrometer), very hot (10-30 million K) regions of the plasma. This project addresses the physical processes that lead to those tiny, high-energy density plasmas and develops means to measure the conditions just before and during the X-ray bursts. One possible relevant process is radiative collapse, which starts if the power radiated by a dense Z-pinch, proportional to the density-squared, exceeds the resistive heating rate from the current flow, thereby cooling the plasma and enabling the magnetic pinching force to exceed the outward plasma thermal pressure. As the resulting radius reduction further increases the radiation rate, this process produces a runaway magnetic implosion. A competing mechanism is a sausage-like instability that can develop in a Z-pinch plasma at a lower current than is needed to induce radiative collapse. This mechanism can also produce tiny hot spots in the neck regions of the sausage-shaped plasma column. It is also possible that these two mechanisms work together to produce the X-ray emitting hot spots. If radiative collapse does contribute to hot spot formation, it would be terminated when the plasma becomes so dense that the radiation cannot escape, enabling the plasma kinetic pressure to build up and stop the current-driven implosion. This project aims to study the development of the hot spots by means of high temporal and spatial resolution X-ray spectroscopy to determine if there is evidence for the presence of the radiative collapse mechanism. Progress toward this goal is presented. To summarize, during the four-year period 09/15/2017 - 9/14/2021, we have collected necessary spectroscopic data to determine the plasma conditions and continue to do so. We are also now in the process of calibrating diagnostic systems (especially the x-ray streak camera system) and analyzing data to determine plasma conditions as a function of time before, during and after the X-ray burst.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development of a colinear Second-Harmonic Orthogonal Polarization (SHOP) interferometer for electron areal density measurements in Magnetically Insulated Transmission Lines (MITLs)

Experimental measurements of low density plasmas forming in Magnetically Insulated Transmission Line (MITL) regions are desired to improve our understanding of current loss and power flow. Therefore, a new optical interferometer diagnostic was commissioned via this LDRD project. To measure the expected 10 13 - 10 17 cm -3 electron densities inside the 0.5 - 6 mm Anode-Cathode (A-K) gaps, a colinear SHOP interferometer diagnostic was constructed. The diagnostic was initially fielded on the University of New Mexico (UNM) Helicon-Cathode (HelCat) plasma device which provided a highly repeatable and well understood plasma source for which the colinear SHOP interferometer’s functionality could be verified and measured. Utilizing the highly repeatable plasma source and shot averaging, the interferometer was able to achieve an areal density sensitivity of 1×10 14 cm -2 . This work at UNM lead to a Review of Scientific Instruments (RSI) publication [20], DOI:10.1063/5.0101687. After the diagnostic’s capability was proven at UNM, the colinear SHOP interferometer was commissioned for use on the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Mykonos accelerator. Here, it provided the first temporal areal density measurements of plasma formation in a parallel plate MITL. The diagnostic was able to achieve a single shot (no multi-shot averaging like at UNM) areal density sensitivity of 1×10 15 cm -2 along a ~ 2mm probing path length, which provided adequate capability to conduct fundamental physics research of MITL plasma formation. CHICAGO and ALEGRA simulations support the diagnostics experimental findings. More experimental and computational work will continue, likely leading to another publication(s). The smaller scale Mykonos accelerator work has also provided justification that the colinear SHOP interferometer is a capable diagnostic for measuring plasma areal densities in the inner MITL and convolute regions of larger TW-class accelerators like SNL’s Z machine.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Coaxial Ceramic Direct Ink Writing on Heterogenous and Rough Surfaces: Investigation of Core–Shell Interactions

In this work, coaxial conductor–ceramic direct ink writing enables the printing of sensitive or encapsulated materials onto heterogeneous and rough substrates. While encasing the core fluid within a stiff ceramic shell, continuity may be maintained, even while printing onto conventionally challenging substrates. Here, we report the development of a coaxial ceramic direct ink writing suite and explore coflow interrelationships based on microfluidic principles. A coaxial nozzle is designed to facilitate the coextrusion of an alumina shell, whereas indium–tin-oxide inks constitute the core. In this manner, a core–shell ceramic element may be printed onto rough substrates for future high-temperature applications. Colloidal inks are engineered to provide the required rheological and sintering performance. Moreover, flow simulations in conjunction with microfluidic coflow principles are used to explore the coaxial printing processing space, thus controlling the core–shell architectures. Physical modeling is further used to analyze core deformations and eccentricity. As a result, simulations are validated experimentally, and the analyses are used to deposit coaxial ceramic features onto heterogeneous, high-temperature ceramic substrates.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

The COMBLE campaign: a study of marine boundary-layer clouds in Arctic cold-air outbreaks

One of the most intense air mass transformations on Earth happens when cold air flows from frozen surfaces to much warmer open water in cold-air outbreaks (CAOs), a process captured beautifully in satellite imagery. Despite the ubiquity of the CAO cloud regime over high-latitude oceans, we have a rather poor understanding of its properties, its role in energy and water cycles, and its treatment in weather and climate models. The Cold-air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) was conducted to better understand this regime and its representation in models. COMBLE aimed to examine the relations between surface fluxes, boundary-layer structure, aerosol, cloud and precipitation properties, and mesoscale circulations in marine CAOs. Processes affecting these properties largely fall in a range of scales where boundary-layer processes, convection, and precipitation are tightly coupled, which makes accurate representation of the CAO cloud regime in numerical weather prediction and global climate models most challenging. COMBLE deployed an Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility at a coastal site in northern Scandinavia (69°N), with additional instruments on Bear Island (75°N), from December 2019 to May 2020. CAO conditions were experienced 19% (21%) of the time at the main site (on Bear Island). A comprehensive suite of continuous in situ and remote sensing observations of atmospheric conditions, clouds, precipitation, and aerosol were collected. Because of the clouds’ well-defined origin, their shallow depth, and the broad range of observed temperature and aerosol concentrations, the COMBLE dataset provides a powerful modeling test bed for improving the representation of mixed-phase cloud processes in large-eddy simulations and large-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗