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At least 217 records · Page 12

Interactions of Wind Energy Project Siting, Wind Resource Potential, and the Evolution of the U.S. Power System

The interactions of wind energy project siting, resource potential, and power system evolution are critical to understand given interest in high renewable energy systems, particularly as wind costs have fallen and grid operators implement solutions to manage variable generation. This study applies an integrative approach that combines spatially-explicit resource potential analysis with high spatial resolution U.S. electricity system modeling. Multiple wind supply curves, representing variations in siting regimes that account for interactions with built infrastructure, regulatory, physical, and social land use factors, are evaluated to determine how siting could influence prospective wind development. Different siting regimes lead to variations in future wind capacity, with the greatest impacts observed under scenarios with high demand for clean energy. With the tightest emissions limit modeled, 2050 onshore wind capacity varied by +7% (49 GW) in the least-restrictive siting regime to a decrease of 37% (270 GW) under the most-constrained case. More-stringent siting restrictions lead to higher electricity prices and emissions that should be weighed with local impacts. Under restrictive siting regimes, wind deployment is also sensitive to transmission availability and wind plant design. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of local land use considerations in regional and national power system planning.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Estimating fluid-induced stress change from observed deformation

Observed deformation is sensitive to a changing stress field within the Earth. There are, however, several impediments to a direct inversion of geodetic measurements for changes in stress. Estimating six independent components of stress change from a smaller number of displacement or strain components is inherently non-unique. The reliance upon surface measurements leads to a loss of resolution, due to the attenuation of higher spatial frequencies in the displacement field with distance from a source. Here, we adopt a technique suited to the estimation of stress changes due to the injection and/or withdrawal of fluids at depth. In this approach the surface displacement data provides an estimate of the volume change responsible for the deformation, rather than stress changes themselves. The inversion for volume change is constrained by the fluid fluxes into and out of the reservoir. The distribution of volume change is used to calculate the displacements in the region above the reservoir. Estimates of stress change follow from differentiating the displacement field in conjunction with a geomechanical model of the o verburden. We also apply the technique to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations gathered over a petroleum reservoir in the San Joaquin Valley of California. An analysis of the InSAR range changes reveals that the stress field in the overburden varies rapidly both in space and in time. The inferred stress variations are found to be compatible with the documented failure of a well in the field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Research concerning the net flux of radiation in the atmosphere of Jupiter

The plan of the NFR (Net Flux of Radiation) team is for the data from the two solar channels (B and E) of NFR to be reduced with the goal of determining the solar heating rate. In order to determine the solar heating rate from the NFR measurements, effects due to the instrument's spatial and spectral response functions, to the temperature variation of the instrument (and associated drift of calibration), to the setting sun, and to the rotation of the probe (initially at a rate comparable to the NFR sampling frequency), all must be well modelled. In the past year, a forward modeling routine was created to simulate NFR data return in the B and E channels. The effects of varying parameters describing the atmospheric model (such as cloud location and thickness) and the descent profile (such as rotation rate) were investigated and an inversion routine was developed. For the forward modeling, existing radiative transfer codes were used to determine intensity fields within the Jovian atmosphere. A routine was developed to determine instantaneous instrument response by integrating the intensity field over the instrument response functions. A second routine was developed to determine the actual output of the NFR by integrating along an arbitrary descent trajectory. Near the top of the atmosphere, the upflux data alone are used to constrain the cloud structure of he atmosphere. To accomplish this, models are used to describe the variation in up flux between consecutive measurements in terms of variations of cloud opacity and variations in known parameters such as the solar zenith angle. This allows us to develop a zero-order model of cloud structure. Lower in the atmosphere, at levels where there is little or no azimuthal structure to the net flux measurements, both the up flux and net flux are used to derive layer transmission and reflection functions, which then determine layer opacity and single scattering albedo. A preliminary analysis of the data began in December 1995. In these data we could see the rapid oscillations expected at the beginning of the data due to probe rotation and the sun passing through the edge of the field of view. In addition, the time when this oscillation stopped was clearly visible. This sets the rough optical depth above the probe at this time.

Tomasko, M. G.↗

A TEMPORAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MILDLY RELATIVISTIC COMPACT JET IN GRS 1915+105

Most of our knowledge of the radio morphology and kinematics of X-ray binary partially synchrotron self-absorbed compact jets (hereafter, compact jets) is based on the observations of GRS 1915+105, which has the most prominent compact jet. Yet, the compact jet bulk velocity, v, is poorly constrained in the literature, 0.07 10 s) X-ray activity associated with 15 GHz flux density >70 mJy for >7 consecutive days. The radio emission is associated with compact jet emission. Two HPS were monitored at 15 GHz during their termination with e-folding times of 3.8 and 8.6 hr. We combine this timescale with the scale of the spatial variation of the linear source of a Very Large Baseline Array image preceding the fade of one of these HPS in order to estimate the jet speed. Our assumption that the reduction in radio emissivity propagates as an approximate discontinuity down the HPS jet (leaving a weak jet in its wake) indicates 0.17<v/c<0.43. This agrees closely with the only other existing v estimates that are derived directly from radio images, jet asymmetry produced by Doppler enhancement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simultaneous compression and opacity data from time-series radiography with a Lagrangian marker

Time-resolved radiography can be used to obtain absolute shock Hugoniot states by simultaneously measuring at least two mechanical parameters of the shock, and this technique is particularly suitable for one-dimensional converging shocks where a single experiment probes a range of pressures as the converging shock strengthens. However, at sufficiently high pressures, the shocked material becomes hot enough that the x-ray opacity falls significantly. Additionally, if the system includes a Lagrangian marker such that the mass within the marker is known, this additional information can be used to constrain the opacity as well as the Hugoniot state. In the limit that the opacity changes only on shock heating, and not significantly on subsequent isentropic compression, the opacity of the shocked material can be determined uniquely. More generally, it is necessary to assume the form of the variation of opacity with isentropic compression or to introduce multiple marker layers. Alternatively, assuming either the equation of state or the opacity, the presence of a marker layer in such experiments enables the non-assumed property to be deduced more accurately than from the radiographic density reconstruction alone. An example analysis is shown for measurements of a converging shock wave in polystyrene at the National Ignition Facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Broadband Spectroscopy Using Two Suzaku Observations of the HMXB GX 301-2

We present the analysis of two Suzaku observations of GX 301-2 at two orbital phases after the periastron passage. Variations in the column density of the line-of-sight absorber are observed, consistent with accretion from a clumpy wind. In addition to a CRSF, multiple fluorescence emission lines were detected in both observations. The variations in the pulse profiles and the CRSF throughout the pulse phase have a signature of a magnetic dipole field. Using a simple dipole model we calculated the expected magnetic field values for different pulse phases and were able to extract a set of geometrical angles, loosely constraining the dipole geometry in the neutron star. From the variation of the CRSF width and energy, we found a geometrical solution for the dipole, making the inclination consistent with previously published values.

Suchy, Slawomir↗

Investigating the uniformity of the excess gamma rays towards the galactic center region

We perform a composite likelihood analysis of subdivided regions within the central 26° × 20° of the Milky Way, with the aim of characterizing the spectrum of the gamma-ray galactic center excess in regions of varying galactocentric distance. Outside of the innermost few degrees, we find that the radial profile of the excess is background-model dependent and poorly constrained. The spectrum of the excess emission is observed to extend upwards of 10 GeV outside ∼5° in radius, but cuts off steeply between 10–20 GeV only in the innermost few degrees. If interpreted as a real feature of the excess, this radial variation in the spectrum has important implications for both astrophysical and dark matter interpretations of the galactic center excess. Single-component dark matter annihilation models face challenges in reproducing this variation; on the other hand, a population of unresolved millisecond pulsars contributing both prompt and secondary inverse Compton emission may be able to explain the spectrum as well as its spatial dependency. We show that the expected differences in the photon-count distributions of a smooth dark matter annihilation signal and an unresolved point source population are an order of magnitude smaller than the fluctuations in residuals after fitting the data, which implies that mismodeling is an important systematic effect in point source analyses aimed at resolving the gamma-ray excess.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A New Approach for Short-Term Solar Radiation Forecasting Using the Estimation of Cloud Fraction and Cloud Albedo

Solar generation is an increasing part of the energy portfolio in the United States. An accurate forecast of the available solar resource and power is essential to managing the electric grid, market operations, and reducing the cost of solar energy. High-frequency forecasts of solar radiation in intra-hour horizons is important for real-time electric power system energy management, especially at the distribution level. Conventional Numerical Weather Prediction models perform poorly in intra-hour, high-frequency forecasts because of the limits on real-time computing, spatial resolution, and infrequent availability of observations. Although a number of alternative technologies, e.g., time-series analysis and machine learning, have been used to fill this gap, the smart persistence model is among the top-performing models in short-term forecasting and therefore often serves as the baseline to evaluate other forecasting models. Although the smart persistence model often serves as the baseline model in these intra-hour forecasts, obvious uncertainties exist in the current smart persistence model: (1) clear-sky index does not respond to the variation of the solar incident angle when cloud conditions are persistent within the forecast horizon, and (2) cloud coverage is inherently persistent though it is constrained by cloud advection. In this study, we developed a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting (PSPI) that integrates cloudy property estimation, a radiative transfer model, and cloud fraction forecasts to improve the performance of the smart persistence model. Compared to the smart persistence model, PSPI does not require additional observations of various atmospheric parameters past global horizontal irradiance, but it is customizable because additional observations, if available, can be ingested to further improve the forecast. Our results show that the PSPI outperforms the persistence and smart persistence model on 5-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute forecast horizons. The software package of PSPI is flexible to users' needs and provides low computational time to run at site-specific locations across the continental United States.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Resolution-enhanced Mapping Spectrometer

A familiar mapping spectrometer implementation utilizes two dimensional detector arrays with spectral dispersion along one direction and spatial along the other. Spectral images are formed by spatially scanning across the scene (i.e., push-broom scanning). For imaging grating and prism spectrometers, the slit is perpendicular to the spatial scan direction. For spectrometers utilizing linearly variable focal-plane-mounted filters the spatial scan direction is perpendicular to the direction of spectral variation. These spectrometers share the common limitation that the number of spectral resolution elements is given by the number of pixels along the spectral (or dispersive) direction. Resolution enhancement by first passing the light input to the spectrometer through a scanned etalon or Michelson is discussed. Thus, while a detector element is scanned through a spatial resolution element of the scene, it is also temporally sampled. The analysis for all the pixels in the dispersive direction is addressed. Several specific examples are discussed. The alternate use of a Michelson for the same enhancement purpose is also discussed. Suitable for weight constrained deep space missions, hardware systems were developed including actuators, sensor, and electronics such that low-resolution etalons with performance required for implementation would weigh less than one pound.

Kumer, J. B.↗

The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

McCarty, Will↗

Reconciling Observed and Predicted Tropical Rainforest OH Concentrations

We present OH observations made in Amazonas, Brazil during the Green Ocean Amazon campaign (GoAmazon2014/5) from February to March of 2014. The average diurnal variation of OH peaked with a midday (10:00–15:00) average of 1.0 × 10 6 (±0.6 × 10 6 ) molecules cm -3 . This was substantially lower than previously reported in other tropical forest photochemical environments (2–5 × 10 6 molecules cm -3 ) while the simulated OH reactivity was lower. The observational data set was used to constrain a box model to examine how well current photochemical reaction mechanisms can simulate observed OH. We used one near-explicit mechanism (MCM v3.3.1) and four condensed mechanisms (i.e., RACM2, MOZART-T1, CB05, CB6r2) to simulate OH. A total of 14 days of analysis shows that all five chemical mechanisms were able to explain the measured OH within instrumental uncertainty of 40% during the campaign in the Amazonian rainforest environment. Future studies are required using more reliable NO x and VOC measurements to further investigate discrepancies in our understanding of the radical chemistry in the tropical rainforest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

BICEP/ Keck XVIII: Measurement of BICEP3 polarization angles and consequences for constraining cosmic birefringence and inflation

We use a custom-made calibrator to measure individual detectors’ polarization angles of BICEP3, a small aperture telescope observing the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at 95 GHz from the South Pole. We describe our calibration strategy and the statistical and systematic uncertainties associated with the measurement. We reach an unprecedented precision for such measurement on a CMB experiment, with a repeatability for each detector pair of 0.02°. Here, we show that the relative angles measured using this method are in excellent agreement with those extracted from CMB data. Because the absolute measurement is currently limited by a systematic uncertainty, we do not derive cosmic birefringence constraints from BICEP3 data in this work. Rather, we forecast the sensitivity of BICEP3 sky maps for such analysis. We investigate the relative contributions of instrument noise, lensing, and dust, as well as astrophysical and instrumental systematics. We also explore the constraining power of different angle estimators, depending on analysis choices. We establish that the BICEP3 2-year dataset (2017–2018) has an on-sky sensitivity to the cosmic birefringence angle of 𝜎 𝛼 = 0.07⁢8°, which could be improved to 𝜎 𝛼 = 0.05⁢5° by adding all of the existing BICEP3 data (through 2023). Furthermore, we emphasize the possibility of using the BICEP3 sky patch as a polarization calibration source for CMB experiments, which with the present data could reach a precision of 0.035°. Finally, in the context of inflation searches, we investigate the impact of detector-to-detector variations in polarization angles as they may bias the tensor-to-scalar ratio 𝑟. We show that while the effect is expected to remain subdominant to other sources of systematic uncertainty, it can be reliably calibrated using polarization angle measurements such as the ones we present in this paper.

Cosmic microwave background↗

Erratum: Voyager Color Photometry of Saturn's Main Rings

We correct a calibration error in our earlier analysis of Voyager color observations of Saturn's main rings at 14 deg phase angle and present thoroughly revised and reanalyzed radial profiles of the brightness of the main rings in Voyager G, V, and UV filters, and ratios of these brightnesses. These results are consistent with more recent HST results at 6 deg phase angle, once allowance is made for plausible phase reddening of the rings. Unfortunately, the Voyager camera calibration factors are simply not sufficiently well known for a combination of the Voyager and HST data to be used to constrain the phase reddening quantitatively. However, some interesting radial variations in reddening between 6-14 deg phase angles are hinted at. We update a ring-and-satellite color vs. albedo plot from Cuzzi and Estrada in several ways. The A and B rings are still found to be in a significantly redder part of color-albedo space than Saturn's icy satellites.

Estrada, Paul R.↗

Multivariate environmental and trait-based controls of transpiration in the Central Amazon Rainforest

Tropical forest tree mortality is increasing due to more severe droughts, yet our understanding of how tree traits and life strategies are linked to drought stress has been limited by measurement scarcity. The BIONTE (BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) near Manaus, Brazil hosts one of the world’s largest sap flow installations, with sensors in 90 canopy trees across a wood density gradient monitored since June 2022. The 2023 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to evaluate how water availability impacts tree transpiration. An interpretable machine learning framework was used to study the complex interactions between transpiration and multiple environmental variables such as soil water availability and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and how these interactions vary with wood density and individual trees. We found varying responses of transpiration from different trees during the El Niño drought. Transpiration generally increased with temperature, with stronger effects in wetter areas and in trees with low to medium wood density. However, this response was modulated by stomatal sensitivity to VPD, which constrained transpiration under high atmospheric demand, particularly in intermediate-moisture area. The inflection in transpiration rate at high temperatures (>32°C) underscores the role of stomatal and hydraulic regulation in limiting water loss and protecting trees from excessive evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water contribution to transpiration revealed unimodal patterns in wetter area, with peak contributions near 0.45 cm 3 cm -3 of surface soil water and declining or flat responses beyond that threshold, suggesting a shift from water- to energy-limited transpiration. In contrast, drier areas exhibited limited transpiration sensitivity to soil water conditions and minimal trait-based variation in VPD responses, indicating supply-limited conditions. Despite higher wood density trees being generally more resilient, this study shows diverse tree drought resilience, prompting further investigation into the specific traits and dynamics between environmental variables in regulating transpiration and other physiological processes in trees.

Drought↗

An adaptive synchronous extraction (ASE) method for estimating intensity and footprint of surface urban heat islands: A case study of 254 North American cities

The urban heat island (UHI) effect has attracted great attention due to its potential impacts on rapidly growing urban areas. Using remotely sensed estimates of land surface temperature (LST), a large number of studies have focused on the surface UHI (SUHI) effect, which can be characterized by its two fundamental properties: intensity and footprint. The SUHI intensity reflects the LST difference between the urban area and the background reference area (BRA), and the SUHI footprint indicates the spatial extent influenced by the heat island. Currently, numerous methods have been developed to estimate the SUHI intensity and footprint, but are still greatly challenged by three main issues. Namely, the discrepancy in BRA selection criterion brings great uncertainty to the estimated SUHI intensity, the estimation of SUHI footprint is largely constrained by the predefined models, and the quantification of SUHI effect is potentially influenced by several confounding factors. Here, we proposed an adaptive synchronous extraction (ASE) method, which is capable of adaptively selecting the most optimal BRA while removing the influence of confounding factors, and achieving synchronous estimation of SUHI intensity and footprint. We applied the ASE method to 254 North American cities and conducted an in-depth comparative analysis to discuss its applicability and benefits. The main results include: (1) The ASE method avoids the limitations of existing methods in BRA selection and model presetting, and shows resilience to parameter variations. This makes the ASE method highly applicable to quantify the SUHI intensity and footprint in cities with various thermal characteristics. (2) The ASE method can better highlight the spatial, seasonal and day-night contrasts in the estimated SUHI intensity. This superiority is particularly evident when comparing it to methods based on the equal-area buffer or the simplified urban-extent algorithm. (3) Confounding factors pose non-negligible impacts on the quantification of the SUHI effect. Typically, ignoring the influence of topographic relief or missing LST data can lead to an overall overestimation of the SUHI intensity, while not removing surrounding urban areas will cause some underestimation of the SUHI intensity. In conclusion, overall, the proposed ASE method provides a new generalizable tool for quantifying the SUHI effect, which has great potentials for future studies and urban climate assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3D microwave tomography of the breast using prior anatomical information

Purpose: The authors have developed a new 3D breast image reconstruction technique that utilizes the soft tissue spatial resolution of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and integrates the dielectric property differentiation from microwave imaging to produce a dual modality approach with the goal of augmenting the specificity of MR imaging, possibly without the need for nonspecific contrast agents. The integration is performed through the application of a soft prior regularization which imports segmented geometric meshes generated from MR exams and uses it to constrain the microwave tomography algorithm to recover nearly uniform property distributions within segmented regions with sharp delineation between these internal subzones. Methods: Previous investigations have demonstrated that this approach is effective in 2D simulation and phantom experiments and also in clinical exams. The current study extends the algorithm to 3D and provides a thorough analysis of the sensitivity and robustness to misalignment errors in size and location between the spatial prior information and the actual data. Results: Image results in 3D were not strongly dependent on reconstruction mesh density, and the changes of less than 30% in recovered property values arose from variations of more than 125% in target region size—an outcome which was more robust than in 2D. Similarly, changes of less than 13% occurred in the 3D image results from variations in target location of nearly 90% of the inclusion size. Permittivity and conductivity errors were about 5 times and 2 times smaller, respectively, with the 3D spatial prior algorithm in actual phantom experiments than those which occurred without priors. Conclusions: The presented study confirms that the incorporation of structural information in the form of a soft constraint can considerably improve the accuracy of the property estimates in predefined regions of interest. These findings are encouraging and establish a strong foundation for using the soft prior technique in clinical studies, where their microwave imaging system and MRI can simultaneously collect breast exam data in patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

THE MASS OF THE BLACK HOLE IN XTE J1118+480

We present contemporaneous, broadband, near-infrared spectroscopy (0.9-2.45 {mu}m) and H-band photometry of the black hole X-ray binary, XTE J1118+480. We determined the fractional dilution of the NIR ellipsoidal light curves of the donor star from other emission sources in the system by comparing the absorption features in the spectrum with field stars of known spectral type. We constrained the donor star spectral type to K7 V-M1 V and determined that the donor star contributed 54% {+-} 27% of the H-band flux at the epoch of our observations. This result underscores the conclusion that the donor star cannot be assumed to be the only NIR emission source in quiescent X-ray binaries. The H-band light curve shows a double-humped asymmetric modulation with extra flux at orbital phase 0.75. The light curve was fitted with a donor star model light curve, taking into account a constant second flux component based on the dilution analysis. We also fitted models that included emission from the donor star, a constant component from the accretion disk, and a phase-variable component from the bright spot where the mass accretion stream impacts the disk. These simple models with reasonable estimates for the component physical parameters can fully account for the observed light curve, including the extra emission at phase 0.75. From our fits, we constrained the binary inclination to 68 Degree-Sign {<=} i {<=} 79 Degree-Sign . This leads to a black hole mass of 6.9 M{sub Sun} {<=} M{sub BH} {<=} 8.2 M{sub Sun }. Long-term variations in the NIR light curve shape in XTE J1118+480 are similar to those seen in other X-ray binaries and demonstrate the presence of continued activity and variability in these systems even when in full quiescence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗