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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Deep ReLU networks have exponential expressive potential but behave identically to their shallow counterparts under random initialization. This paper introduces a novel training paradigm that constrains weights into mathematically optimized patterns. This enables the resulting network to make exponential use of its depth.
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.
With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, frequency response and its security are of significant concerns for reliable power system operations. Frequency-constrained unit commitment (FCUC) is proposed to address this challenge. Despite existing efforts in modeling frequency characteristics in unit commitment (UC), current strategies can only handle oversimplified low-order frequency response models and do not consider wide-range operating conditions. This paper presents a generic data-driven framework for FCUC under high renewable penetration. Here, deep neural networks (DNNs) are trained to predict the frequency response using real data or high-fidelity simulation data. Next, the DNN is reformulated as a set of mixed-integer linear constraints to be incorporated into the ordinary UC formulation. In the data generation phase, all possible power injections are considered, and a region-of-interest active sampling is proposed to include power injection samples with frequency nadirs closer to the UFLC threshold, which enhances the accuracy of frequency constraints in FCUC. The proposed FCUC is investigated on the IEEE 39-bus system. Then, a full-order dynamic model simulation using PSS/E verifies the effectiveness of FCUC in frequency-secure generator commitments.
Understanding the preindustrial (PI) to present-day (PD) change in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd) is important to constrain the anthropogenic influence on clouds and aid future model projections. Perturbed parameter ensemble simulations of PI and PD conditions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv3) reveal two locations with consistent negative ΔNd signal across parameter space–the Southeastern US and the United Kingdom–despite a trend of positive ΔNd globally from increased fossil fuel consumption. These negative ΔNd signals are driven by higher anthropogenic biofuel emissions in the PI. By varying the PI aerosol mass and/or number emissions across these data sets' uncertainty ranges, we can change the magnitude and sign of ΔNd and the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci) regionally and globally, with near-zero ΔNd leading to near-zero ERFaci. These results highlight the need to constrain PI emission uncertainty to better understand Earth system responses to aerosol-cloud interactions.
PIP-II beam transfer line (BTL) to transport the beam from PIP-II Linac to the Booster ring at Fermilab. The latest design eliminates rolling the dipoles in the beam line to cross over the Tevatron tunnel. Also re-designed is the lattice in the region of the Booster Injection to meet the request of the civil construction needs and accommodate the constrains of the Booster injection request. A beam line to the beam absorber (BAL) is designed based on the request from the results of Mars simulations and ANASYS calculation of the absorber. Simulations with dipole and quadrupole field errors for the Beam Transport Line (BTL) to the Booster, which provides the specifications for all the magnets and Power supplies, will be presented too.
Over the last decade, the Australian Dark Energy (OzDES) collaboration has used Reverberation Mapping to measure the masses of high redshift supermassive black holes. Here we present the final review and analysis of this OzDES reverberation mapping campaign. These observations use 6-7 years of photometric and spectroscopic observations of 735 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) in the redshift range 0.13-3.85 and bolometric luminosity range 44.3 - 47.5 erg/s. Both photometry and spectra are observed in visible wavelengths, allowing for the physical scale of the AGN broad line region to be estimated from reverberations of the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱, MgII and CIV emission lines. We successfully use reverberation mapping to constrain the masses of 62 super-massive black holes, and combine with existing data to fit a power law to the lag-luminosity relation for the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱ and MgII lines with a scatter of ~0.25 dex, the tightest yet identified, fit specifically for consistency with high redshift AGN. We fit a similarly constrained relation for CIV, resolving a tension with the low luminosity literature AGN by accounting for selection effects arising from finite survey length. We also examine the impact of emission line width and luminosity (related to accretion rate) in reducing the scatter of these scaling relationships and find no significant improvement over the lag-only approach for any of the three lines. Using these relations, we further estimate the masses and accretion rates of 246 AGN with single epoch methods. We also use these relations to estimate the relative sizes of the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱, MgII and CIV emitting regions. In short, we provide a comprehensive benchmark of high redshift AGN reverberation mapping at the close of this most recent generation of surveys, including light curves, time-delays, and a set of significantly improved radius-luminosity relations for use with high-redshift populations.
Medium and high-spin level sequences in 64 Cu were investigated using the complex 26 Mg( 48 Ca, αp5nγ ) multinucleon transfer reaction. The experiment was performed at the ATLAS accelerator facility at the Argonne National Laboratory using the Gammasphere array and the fragment mass analyzer (FMA). Two high-spin, quasirotational bands consisting of stretched-E2 transitions were observed in coincidence with the known low-spin structure for the first time. These bands share remarkable similarities with highly deformed and/or superdeformed bands observed in the A ≈ 60–70 mass region. In addition, a regular dipole sequence with weak E2 crossover transitions was observed. A general discussion of the observed structures, complemented by theoretical calculations carried out within the framework of the adiabatic and configuration-fixed constrained covariant density functional theory and the quantum particle-rotor model, are presented. Furthermore, the results are interpreted in the context of shell-structure evolution and the collectivity in the mass region.
The TeV neutrino signal observed by IceCube from the active galactic nucleus NGC 1068 can probe its innermost coronal regions. If these neutrinos originate from hadrons accelerated within a magnetized turbulent corona, their intensity and spectrum depend on the turbulent magnetic field strength and turbulence coherence scale. The gamma rays accompanying neutrino production are absorbed in this optically thick environment, in a way that depends sensitively on the size of the corona. By a joint fit of the IceCube and Fermi-LAT observations, we translate the multimessenger signal from NGC 1068 and the tentative signal from NGC 7469 into quantitative constraints on coronal properties. NGC 1068, with a significant TeV neutrino excess, favors a compact, strongly magnetized corona with a large turbulence coherence length relative to the coronal size. NGC 7469, with two ∼100 TeV neutrino events, points instead to a somewhat larger corona with much smaller coherence length and high magnetization, but a very small fraction of energy in nonthermal protons. We obtain the diffuse flux from a population of Seyfert galaxies identical to either NGC 1068 or NGC 7469. Finally, we consider a third scenario, motivated by the spectral break observed in the diffuse neutrino flux at tens of TeV, with coronal properties intermediate between the two point-source-inspired models. To enable detailed comparisons with the IceCube and electromagnetic observations, we release our model predictions in a GitHub repository.
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Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.
Here we present a new algorithm for infinite-dimensional optimization with general constraints, called ALESQP. In short, ALESQP is an augmented Lagrangian method that penalizes inequality constraints and solves equality-constrained nonlinear optimization subproblems at every iteration. The subproblems are solved using a matrix-free trust-region sequential quadratic programming (SQP) method that takes advantage of iterative, i.e., inexact linear solvers, and is suitable for large-scale applications. A key feature of ALESQP is a constraint decomposition strategy that allows it to exploit problem-specific variable scalings and inner products. We analyze convergence of ALESQP under different assumptions. We show that strong accumulation points are stationary. Consequently, in finite dimensions ALESQP converges to a stationary point. In infinite dimensions we establish that weak accumulation points are feasible in many practical situations. Under additional assumptions we show that weak accumulation points are stationary. We present several infinite-dimensional examples where ALESQP shows remarkable discretization-independent performance in all of its iterative components, requiring a modest number of iterations to meet constraint tolerances at the level of machine precision. Also, we demonstrate a fully matrix-free solution of an infinite-dimensional problem with nonlinear inequality constraints.
The San Juan Basin (SJB), located in southwestern Colorado northwestern New Mexico, containing Paleozoic through middle Cenozoic strata, formed as a partitioned basin approximately 80 Ma in response to the Laramide orogeny. The SJB is a commercially mature, petroleum-producing basin, and currently being explored for CCUS and geothermal resources. Modern heat flow within the SJB is spatially variable with higher geothermal gradients in its northern and eastern portions. The temporal history of the basin thermal history is essential for understanding capacity for carbon storage and geothermal exploration. We present thermochronometric analyses of two surface and two subsurface samples to constrain spatial-temporal thermal evolution of the northwestern San Juan Basin. Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometric analyses were conducted on Cliff House and Kirtland Formation outcrops and subsurface samples of the Ojo Alamo and Pictured Cliffs Formations from a DOE funded, CCUS project pilot-well. In addition, vitrinite reflectance data and 1D basin modelling constrain possible time-temperature pathways of the samples in an area where no previous studies have constrained the uplift/exhumation of the Hogback Monocline using thermochronometry. Modeling suggests that elevated subsurface temperatures developed simultaneously with regional late Oligiocene volcanism in the San Juan Volcanic field and timing of maximum burial in the SJB. Late Miocene to Pliocene cooling/exhumation through the apatite (U-Th)/He partial retention zone support stratigraphic evidence of the Colorado Plateau uplift, possibly regional epeirogenic uplift driven by mantle processes.
Similar to star-forming galaxies or starburst galaxies, star-forming regions in our Galaxy can host cosmic-ray (CR) accelerators and rich gas as targets of hadronuclear interaction. By our estimations, the IceCube neutrino observatory might detect muon neutrinos from a CR accelerator associated with a molecular cloud complex in our Galaxy. The associated high-energy gamma-ray emission might be observed by the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), High-Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma-Ray Observatory (HAWC), and Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory (LHAASO). Furthermore, taking the Galactic Center (GC) region as an example, we assume that a hypernova exploded in the past in the GC. We simulate the acceleration of CRs in the hypernova remnant (HNR) as well as their confinement and escape. The high-energy protons escape from the HNR, diffuse around the GC, interact with molecular clouds, and then produce gamma-rays and neutrinos. In the optimal cases, the GC would be a promising 100 TeV gamma-ray source for LHAASO’s one-month observation. We propose that neutrino-induced searching for starting track-like and high-energy starting events (HESEs) observed by IceCube, from the GC region with a radius of 1°.8, would help us discover the particle accelerator in the GC or constrain our models. Under the constraint from high-energy gamma-ray observations by the H.E.S.S. telescope, we estimate the exposure time needed to make a significant discovery for the optimal cases. The analysis combining observations of IceCube and ANTARES, starting track-like events and HESEs, future observations by neutrino detectors IceCube-Gen2 and KM3net, and gamma-ray telescopes CTA, HAWC, and LHAASO would help to constrain our models.
The radiative effects of black carbon depend critically on its atmospheric lifetime, which is controlled by the rate at which freshly emitted combustion particles become internally mixed with other aerosol components. Global aerosol models strive to represent this process, but the timescale for aerosol mixing is not easily constrained using observations. In this study, we apply a timescale parameterization derived from particle‐resolved simulations to quantify, in a global aerosol model, the timescale for internal mixing. We show that, while highly variable, the average timescale for internal mixing is approximately 3 hr, which is much shorter than the 24‐hr aging timescale traditionally applied in bulk aerosol models. We then use the mixing timescale to constrain the aging criterion in the Modal Aerosol Module. Our analysis reveals that, to best reflect timescales for internal mixing, modal models should assume that particles transition from the hydrophobic (fresh) to the hydrophilic (aged) class once they accumulate a coating thickness equal to four monolayers of sulfuric acid, as opposed to the model's current aging criterion of eight monolayers. We show that, in remote regions like the Arctic and Antarctic, predictions of black carbon loading and its seasonal variation are particularly sensitive to the model representation of aging. By constraining aging in global models to reflect mixing timescales simulated by the particle‐resolved model, we eliminate one of the free parameters governing black carbon's long‐range transport and spatiotemporal distribution.
Atmospheric aerosol size and abundance influence radiative effects and climate change. To date, efforts to constrain global climate models’ radiative forcing with in situ aerosol observations have been hamstrung by uncertainty. One source of error, the regional “representation error,” arises when accurate but sparse single-point measurements of atmospheric aerosol distributions are compared with a model value, assuming that the single-point measurement is representative of the model domain. The Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer network in the Southern Great Plains (POPSnet-SGP) campaign has demonstrated that a network of nearly autonomous aerosol instruments operating at ambient temperature and relative humidity (with low measurement error) may be used to quantify measurement representation error and investigate the factors introducing heterogeneity in aerosol distributions across a rural, continental background region. Measurements were made using Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer (POPS) instruments at several sites for five months across the Department of Energy’s Aerosol Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM-SGP) User Facility in the central USA. Measurement representation error decreased with longer averaging periods (20-40 % between 1 sec and 1 day), varied between sites by 10 – 20 % for aerosol concentration 140 – 2500 nm in diameter (N_140), and was higher for aerosols > 400 nm in diameter (N_400). Our measurements also show the influence of local meteorology on aerosol surface area (A_140) and size distributions: A_140 is positively correlated with wind speed and relative humidity, negatively correlated with precipitation, and lower given westerly winds. Based on this study, we conclude that the POPSnet approach provides considerably more insight into the spatial variability in the aerosol population that can be used to constrain climate models than would be available from similar networks of PM 2.5 monitors.
Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.
Wave and tidal energy have the potential to provide benefits to power systems with high proportions of stochastic renewable generation. This is particularly applicable with wind and solar photovoltaics, as the offsetting of these renewable resources results in more reliable renewable generation. This study utilises ten metrics to quantify the temporal complementarity and supply-demand balancing requirements of the energy mix in Great Britain, to investigate the potential magnitude of these system benefits. Wave and tidal generation profiles are created using historical resource data and hydrodynamic models. The results show that the inclusion of wave and tidal generation creates a renewable energy mix which is more available under multiple conditions: throughout a year of operation; at times of peak demand; for multiple consecutive hourly time periods; and at times when wind and solar generation are not available. Three regional case studies also show that the inclusion of marine energy allows for improved regional supply-demand matching, reducing instances of energy shortage and excess and potentially relieving transmission congestion at particularly constrained locations within GB. Finally, the implications of these findings are discussed in terms of GB wholesale market operation, system balancing and system security.
A first measurement of the polarisation transfer from a circularly-polarised photon to the final state neutron ($C$$^{n}_{x'}$) in deuterium photodisintegration has been carried out. This quantity is determined over the photon energy range 370 – 700 MeV and for neutron centre-of-mass breakup angles ~ 45 – 120°. The polarisation of the final state neutrons was determined by an ancillary large-acceptance nucleon polarimeter, surrounding a cryogenic liquid deuterium target within the Crystal Ball detector at MAMI. The polarimeter characterised (n, p) charge exchange of the ejected neutrons to determine their polarisation. The new $C$$^{n}_{x'}$ data are also compared to a theoretical model based on nucleonic and nucleon resonance degrees of freedom constrained by the current world-database of deuterium photodisintegration measurements. Structures in $C$$^{n}_{x'}$ observed in the region of the d*(2380) could not be explained by conventional models of deuteron photodisintegration.