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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Precision Requirements for Space-based XCO2 Data

Precision requirements have been determined for the column-averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction (X(sub CO2)) data products to be delivered by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO). These requirements result from an assessment of the amplitude and spatial gradients in X(sub CO2), the relationship between X(sub CO2) precision and surface CO2 flux uncertainties calculated from inversions of the X(sub CO2) data, and the effects of X,,Z biases on CO2 flux inversions. Observing system simulation experiments and synthesis inversion modeling demonstrate that the OCO mission design and sampling strategy provide the means to achieve the X(sub CO2) precision requirements. The impact of X(sub CO2) biases on CO2 flux uncertainties depend on their spatial and temporal extent since CO2 sources and sinks are inferred from regional-scale X(sub CO2) gradients. Simulated OCO sampling of the TRACE-P CO2 fields shows the ability of X(sub CO2) data to constrain CO2 flux inversions over Asia and distinguish regional fluxes from India and China.

Miller, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS1997

VLA-SOHO observations of the solar corona

The very large array (VLA) observations at 3.5 cm, 6.2 cm, 20.7 cm and 91.6 cm wavelengths are compared to the data obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory systems in June 1996. The purpose was to determine the structure of a target active region from the chromosphere to corona and to constrain the emission mechanism and plasma parameters at these levels. The emission that may reflect changes in the temperature or magnetic structure in the underlying active region was mapped. The maps show loop-like structures at the solar limbs that appear to lie at the base of evolving already-detected coronal streamers.

Lang, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

M(sub W) = 7.2-7.4 Estimated for A.D. 900 Seattle Fault Earthquake by Modeling the Uplift of a Lidar-Mapped Marine Terrace

Inverse modeling of slip on the Seattle fault system, constrained by elevations of uplifted marine terraces, provides a well-constrained estimate of the magnitude of the largest known upper-crust earthquake in the Puget Sound region within the past 2500 years. The terrace elevations that constrain the slip inversion are extracted from elevation and slope images generated from LIDAR surveys of the Puget Sound collected in 1996-2002. The images reveal a single uplifted terrace, dated to 1000 cal yr B.P. near Restoration Point, which is morphologically continuous along the southern shoreline of Bainbridge Island and is visible at comparable elevations within a 25 km by 12 km region encompassing coastlines of West Seattle, Bremerton, East Bremerton, Port Orchard, and Waterman Point. Considering sea level changes since A.D. 900, the maximum uplift magnitudes of shoreline inner edges approach 9 m and are located at the southernmost coastline of Bainbridge Island and the northern tip of Waterman Point, while tilt magnitudes are modest - approaching 0.1 degrees. For each of several different Seattle fault geometry interpretations, we use a linear inversion code to solve for distributed slip on the fault surfaces. Moment magnitudes of 7.2 to 7.4 are calculated directly from the different slip solutions. In general, the greatest slip of the A.D. 900 event was confined to the frontal thrust of the Seattle fault system and was centered beneath Puget Sound between Restoration Point and Alki Point.

Jordan R. Muller↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China

Reliable regional temperature projections including heat extremes are essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Taking China as an example, simple averages from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models project high warming due to sampling many high climate sensitivities in the ensemble. Here, we develop an emergent constraint (EC) framework to obtain constrained mean and daily maximum temperature (TXx) warming over China by using observed global warming and local residual warming. The constrained annual mean and TXx warming over China (2.33°C [1.61–3.05°C] and 2.31°C [1.21–2.99°C]) are 0.65°C [0.04–1.76°C] and 0.63°C [–0.50–2.39°C], respectively, lower than raw projections (2.98°C [1.85–4.22°C] and 2.94°C [2.04–4.39°C]) for 2080–2099 under the intermediate-emission scenario. Approximately half model uncertainty is reduced after constraint. The land area (population) experiencing temperature extremes in our metric is 78% (85%) of the raw projections. Our results imply a lower impact of extreme heat than implied by current raw CMIP6 projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Boundary conditions↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining level densities through quantitative correlations with cross-section data

The adopted level densities (LD) for the nuclei produced through different reaction mechanisms significantly impact the accurate calculation of cross sections for the different reaction channels. Many common LD models make simplified assumptions regarding the overall behavior of the total LD and the intrinsic spin and parity distributions of the excited states. However, very few experimental constraints are taken into account in these models: LD at neutron separation energy coming from average spacings of s- and p-wave resonances ( D 0 and D 1 , respectively) whenever they have been previously measured, and the sometimes subjective extrapolation of discrete levels. These, however, constrain the LD only in very specific regions of excitation energy, and for specific spins and parities. This work aims to establish additional experimental constraints on LD through quantitative correlations between cross sections and LD. This allows for fitting and the determination of detailed structures in LD. For this we use the microscopic Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) LD as a starting point as the HFB LD provide a more realistic spin and parity distributions than phenomenological models such as Gilbert-Cameron (GC). We then associate variations predicted by the HFB model with the structure observed in double-differential cross sections at low outgoing neutron energy, a region that is dominated by the LD input. We also use (n, p) on 56 Fe , as an example case where angle-integrated cross sections are extremely sensitive to LD. For comparison purposes we also perform calculations with the GC model. With this approach we are able to perform fits of the LD based on actual experimental data, constraining the model and ensuring its consistency. This approach can be particularly useful in extrapolating the LD to nuclei for which high-excited discrete levels and/or values of D 0 or D 1 are unknown. Finally, it also predicts neutron-induced inelastic γ cross sections that in some cases can differ significantly from more standard phenomenological LD models such as GC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2026

Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.

ICESat-2↗
NASA NTRS1985

Seyfert galaxy narrow-line regions. II - Kinematic models

A class of kinematic models for the narrow-line regions of active galactic nuclei is presented. The models incorporate continuity-constrained radial flow of emitting material in a bounded, spherical geometry. They are designed to represent the narrow-line regions in as simple a manner as is consistent with current knowledge. The systematic comparison of line profiles arising from the models to the spectra in the forbidden O III lambda 5007 emission line which have been described in Paper I of this series is used as a probe of the line-emitting region kinematics: the model parameter areas of interest are identified and tested for consistency with the data. The results indicate heterogeneous kinematic conditions; the most common pattern is outflow of emitting material in a radially decelerating velocity field in the presence of distributed obscuration. However, some observed line profiles can be fitted by several model profiles from very different kinematic conditions, indicating that the information in a spatially unresolved line profile is insufficient to constrain uniquely the geometry and kinematics of the line-emitting region. Although the specific conclusions are model dependent, a predominantly radial pattern of velocities and a distribution of obscuring material are probably essential features of any successful kinematic model of the narrow-line regions.

Vrtilek, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2024

The Emerging Issue-3 Revision of the Ccsds-123.0-B Low-Complexity Lossless and Near-Lossless Multispectral and Hyperspectral Image Compression Standard

The CCSDS-123.0-B Low-Complexity Lossless and Near-Lossless Multispectral & Hyperspectral Image Compression standard provides state-of-the-art compression for imaging spectrometer data. Issue 1 of this standard, published in 2012, provides only lossless compression capability. In 2019, Issue 2 was published, adding new features and in particular augmenting the compressor to provide also near-lossless compression, i.e., compression with a user-specified error limit in each spectral band. This presentation will describe the Issue 3 revision currently under development by the CCSDS Data Compression working group. This revision will provide region-of-interest compression capability. That is, a user-provided spatial classification map can be used to specify different data fidelity parameters in different image regions. This would, for example, allow an onboard classification algorithm to identify the most important regions of an image, or regions obscured by clouds, and adjust compression fidelity accordingly in each region to maximize value of imaging spectrometer data returned over constrained space communication links. The revision also aims to add an option that is unrelated to region-of-interest compression but can improve compression effectiveness in some cases.

CCSDS Hyperspectral↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mixing of Condensable Constituents with H–He during the Formation and Evolution of Jupiter

Simulations of Jupiter's formation are presented that incorporate mixing of H–He with denser material entering the planet as solids. Heavy compounds and gas mix substantially when the planet becomes roughly as massive as Earth, because incoming planetesimals can fully vaporize. Supersaturation of vaporized silicates causes the excess to sink as droplets, but water remains at higher altitudes. Because the mean molecular weight decreases rapidly outward, some of the compositional inhomogeneities produced during formation can survive for billions of years. After 4.57 Gyr, our Jupiter model retains compositional gradients; proceeding outward, one finds (i) an inner heavy-element core, the outer part derived from hot supersaturated rain-out; (ii) a composition-gradient region, containing most of the heavy elements, where H–He abundance increases outward, reaching about 0.9 mass fraction at 0.3 of the radius, with silicates enhanced relative to water in the lower parts and depleted in the upper parts; (iii) a uniform-composition region (neglecting He immiscibility) that is enriched over protosolar and contains most of the planet’s mass; and (iv) an outer region where cloud formation (condensation) of heavy constituents occurs. This radial compositional profile has heavy elements more broadly distributed than predicted by classical formation models but less diluted than suggested by Juno-constrained gravity models. The compositional gradients in the region containing the bulk of the heavy elements prevent convection, in both our models and those fitting current gravity, resulting in a hot interior where much of the accretion energy remains trapped.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of physical and chemical hydrology on bioremediation of a U-contaminated aquifer informed by reactive transport modeling incorporating 238 U/ 235 U ratios

Microbially-catalyzed reductive immobilization of aqueous uranium (U) as a solid phase has been proposed as a U remediation technique. Both laboratory and field experiments have demonstrated that this reduction reaction alters the 238 U/ 235 U ratio, producing a 238 U-enriched U(IV) solid. In contrast, other major U reactive transport processes fractionate these isotopes much less. This suggests the potential to quantify the extent of bioreduction occurring in groundwater containing U using the 238 U/ 235 U ratio, which would substantially improve upon current practices largely relying on U concentration measurements alone. Current reactive transport models for uranium dynamics include only concentration measurements, which are strongly influenced by highly coupled reactive transformation and aqueous transport processes. The complex physical and chemical behavior of U potentially compromises such quantitative analysis of U storage and release. Here we report the first numerical reactive transport model which explicitly incorporates variations in the 238 U/ 235 U ratio of U and demonstrates improved interpretation of the principal chemical reactions and groundwater transport processes affecting the subsurface mobility and distribution of this widespread contaminant. Recent U bioreduction studies performed in a contaminated aquifer in Rifle, Colorado, USA applied Rayleigh distillation models to interpret U stable isotope fractionation observed as a result of acetate amendment. These simplified models were unable to resolve the spatiotemporal pattern of U isotope fractionation recorded in the aqueous solutes. Here, we employ the multi-component, isotope-enabled CrunchTope reactive transport software to interpret these measured U isotope ratios, and demonstrate accurate reproduction of observed trends in both geochemistry and 238 U/ 235 U ratios for two consecutive years of field experiments. Overall, our results indicate that accurately modeling both the U concentration and isotope ratio distributions greatly constrains the parameter space of the model. We find that the transport properties of U in the Rifle aquifer are governed by the presence of low-permeability regions, which the isotopes are uniquely sensitive to. When U reduction is spatially constrained by these low-permeability regions, the shift in the 238 U/ 235 U ratio becomes more muted. Accurate modeling of observed U isotope ratios thus provides a powerful means to better understand bioremediation, and the current study serves to advance the application of this novel method.

238U/235U↗
NASA NTRS2013

MHD Simulations of the Plasma Flow in the Magnetic Nozzle

The magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow of plasma through a magnetic nozzle is simulated by solving the governing equations for the plasma flow in the presence of an static magnetic field representing the applied nozzle. This work will numerically investigate the flow and behavior of the plasma as the inlet plasma conditions and magnetic nozzle field strength are varied. The MHD simulations are useful for addressing issues such as plasma detachment and to can be used to gain insight into the physical processes present in plasma flows found in thrusters that use magnetic nozzles. In the model, the MHD equations for a plasma, with separate temperatures calculated for the electrons and ions, are integrated over a finite cell volume with flux through each face computed for each of the conserved variables (mass, momentum, magnetic flux, energy) [1]. Stokes theorem is used to convert the area integrals over the faces of each cell into line integrals around the boundaries of each face. The state of the plasma is described using models of the ionization level, ratio of specific heats, thermal conductivity, and plasma resistivity. Anisotropies in current conduction due to Hall effect are included, and the system is closed using a real-gas equation of state to describe the relationship between the plasma density, temperature, and pressure.A separate magnetostatic solver is used to calculate the applied magnetic field, which is assumed constant for these calculations. The total magnetic field is obtained through superposition of the solution for the applied magnetic field and the self-consistently computed induced magnetic fields that arise as the flowing plasma reacts to the presence of the applied field. A solution for the applied magnetic field is represented in Fig. 1 (from Ref. [2]), exhibiting the classic converging-diverging field pattern. Previous research was able to demonstrate effects such as back-emf at a super-Alfvenic flow, which significantly alters the shape of the magnetic field in both the near- and far-field regions. However, in that work the downstream domain was constrained to a channel of constant cross-sectional area. In the present work we seek to address this issue by modeling the downstream region with a domain that permits free expansion of the plasma, permitting a better evaluation of the downstream effects the applied field has on the plasma. The inlet boundary conditions and applied magnetic field values will also be varied to determine the effect the initial plasma energy content and applied magnetic field energy density have on the near- and far-field plasma properties on the MHD code. This will determine the effect of inlet boundary conditions on the results downstream and address issues related to the restrictive numerical domain previously used.

Smith, T. E. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Design of bearings for rotor systems based on stability

Design of rotor systems incorporating stable behavior is of great importance to manufacturers of high speed centrifugal machinery since destabilizing mechanisms (from bearings, seals, aerodynamic cross coupling, noncolocation effects from magnetic bearings, etc.) increase with machine efficiency and power density. A new method of designing bearing parameters (stiffness and damping coefficients or coefficients of the controller transfer function) is proposed, based on a numerical search in the parameter space. The feedback control law is based on a decentralized low order controller structure, and the various design requirements are specified as constraints in the specification and parameter spaces. An algorithm is proposed for solving the problem as a sequence of constrained 'minimax' problems, with more and more eigenvalues into an acceptable region in the complex plane. The algorithm uses the method of feasible directions to solve the nonlinear constrained minimization problem at each stage. This methodology emphasizes the designer's interaction with the algorithm to generate acceptable designs by relaxing various constraints and changing initial guesses interactively. A design oriented user interface is proposed to facilitate the interaction.

Dhar, D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Shape-Constrained Segmentation Approach for Arctic Multiyear Sea Ice Floe Analysis

The melting of sea ice is correlated to increases in sea surface temperature and associated climatic changes. Therefore, it is important to investigate how rapidly sea ice floes melt. For this purpose, a new Tempo Seg method for multi temporal segmentation of multi year ice floes is proposed. The microwave radiometer is used to track the position of an ice floe. Then,a time series of MODIS images are created with the ice floe in the image center. A Tempo Seg method is performed to segment these images into two regions: Floe and Background.First, morphological feature extraction is applied. Then, the central image pixel is marked as Floe, and shape-constrained best merge region growing is performed. The resulting tworegionmap is post-filtered by applying morphological operators.We have successfully tested our method on a set of MODIS images and estimated the area of a sea ice floe as afunction of time.

SEA ICE FLOE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The IRX–β relation in kpc-sized star-forming regions in nearby galaxies

The effect of dust attenuation on a galaxy’s light depends on a number of physical properties, such as geometry and dust composition, both of which can vary across the faces of galaxies. To investigate this variation, we continue analysis on star-forming regions in 29 galaxies studied previously. We analyse these regions using Swift /UV Optical Telescope and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer images, as well as Sloan Digital Sky Survey/Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory emission line maps to constrain the relationship between the infrared excess (IRX) and the ultraviolet spectral index, β, for each star-forming region. This relationship can be used to constrain which dust attenuation law is appropriate for the region. We find that the value of D n (4000) for a region is correlated with both IRX and β, and that the gas-phase metallicity is strongly correlated with the IRX. This correlation between metallicity and IRX suggests that regardless of aperture, metal-rich regions have steeper attenuation curves. We also find that integrated galactic light follows nearly the same IRX–β relationship as that found for kpc-sized star-forming regions. Here, this similarity may suggest that the attenuation law followed by the galaxy is essentially the same as that followed by the regions, although the relatively large size of our star-forming regions complicates this interpretation because optical opacity and attenuation curves have been observed to vary within individual galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improvement of Atmospheric Objective Analysis Over Sloping Terrain and Its Impact on Shallow-Cumulus Clouds in Large-Eddy Simulations

Surface topography strongly impacts the regional atmospheric circulation dynamically and thermodynamically. Over the Great Plains in the United States, the gently tilted slope is an important factor that impacts clouds, convection and regional circulations. This study enhances an atmospheric constrained variational analysis by using a terrain-following sigma vertical coordinate and applies to the data collected at the Southern Great Plain (SGP) site of the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. Sensitivity studies are performed to examine the impact of the terrain effects on the derived large-scale atmospheric forcing fields and the simulated shallow-cumulus clouds in large-eddy simulation (LES) driven by the forcing. We found that the terrain impacts on the large-scale forcing fields are mainly at lower levels and are strongly controlled by up/downslope winds. The response of the derived forcing to the slope of the terrain is monotonic, but the response of the simulated shallow-cumulus clouds is more complex and depends on several factors. Overall, the terrain impact is small over SGP due to the small slope angle. However, the flat-surface assumption may cause larger biases in the large-scale forcing fields at locations with steeper terrain. The new sigma-coordinate algorithm, with its consideration of surface slope, should be more suitable to derive large-scale objective analysis over regions with steep terrain for application to force single-column models, cloud resolving models and LES models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constrained Extrapolation Problem and Order-Dependent Mappings

In this work, we consider the problem of extrapolating the perturbation series for the dilute Fermi gas in three dimensions to the unitary limit of infinite scattering length and into the BEC region, using the available strong-coupling information to constrain the extrapolation problem. In this constrained extrapolation problem (CEP) the goal is to find classes of approximants that give well converged results already for low perturbative truncation orders. First, we show that standard Padé and Borel methods are too restrictive to give satisfactory results for this CEP. A generalization of Borel extrapolation is given by the so-called Maximum Entropy extrapolation method (MaxEnt). However, we show that MaxEnt requires extensive elaborations to be applicable to the dilute Fermi gas and is thus not practical for the CEP in this case. Instead, we propose order-dependent-mapping extrapolation (ODME) as a simple, practical, and general method for the CEP. Here, we find that the ODME approximants for the ground-state energy of the dilute Fermi gas are robust with respect to changes of the mapping choice and agree with results from quantum Monte Carlo simulations within uncertainties.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Industrial emission inventories of iron and phosphorus for past, present and future

Global emission inventories of aerosol iron by species, and of phosphorus, were developed for inclusion in Earth system modeling that includes atmospheric transport. The time period covered was 1850-2010 to evaluate human influence. A variety of approaches to compare measured and modeled values of aerosol iron was synthesized to estimate how well anthropogenic emissions are known. Anthropogenic emissions are constrained within a factor of two and if there is a bias, it is an overestimation. The exception is shipping emissions, which may be underestimated. Direct radiative forcing by iron aerosol is small in the global average (0.02 W m -2 ) but reaches 0.25 W m -2 around source regions. Regions of high direct radiative forcing are poorly constrained by observations. The central value of change in oceanic net primary productivity due to iron deposition is about 0.26 PgC yr -1 , also highly localized. This leads to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 accumulation that corresponds to a forcing of 0.008 W m -2 since 1850 (0.003-0.18 W m -2 ). Emissions of particulate matter to 2050 were estimated in response to different policy scenarios, including the need for renewable energy installations under decarbonization scenarios. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the total metal demand is 195 Mt/yr in 2020, peaking at 270 Mt/yr in years 2040-2045; under the Rapid Decarbonization scenario, total metal demand is nearly doubled at its peak: 480 Mt/yr in year 2040. Primary particulate matter emissions attributable to processing metals for renewable energy are also amplified under rapid decarbonization, but total atmospheric emissions are much lower because of the shift away from combustion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗