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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Causal Approach to Integrate Component Health Data into System Reliability Models

Two of the challenges of current plant reliability approaches are the ability to integrate plant health data, and to support decision making. Condition based data and diagnostic/prognostic information are in fact not considered into plant reliability models to inform system engineers on the most critical components. Currently, the propagation of quantitative health data from the component to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature/structure of the data. On the other hand, plant reliability methods (which are typically based on fault-trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate data from the component to the system level, but values of failure rates or failure probabilities are an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience, and it neglects the present component health status (e.g., diagnostic and condition-based data) and health projection (when available from prognostic data). Our first claim is that system reliability models should propagate health information from the component to the system/plant level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system/plant health and identify the most critical components. Our second claim is that component health should be informed solely by that specific component current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience. This paper is directly supporting these two claims by proposing a different approach to perform reliability modeling which relies on available component diagnostic, prognostic and condition-based data to measure component health, and it propagates this information through fault tree models. The propagation of health data from the component to the system level is performed not in terms of probability, but in terms of margins where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present actual status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated to a component performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired component performance (i.e., component health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical components.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

GANISP: A GAN-Assisted Importance Splitting Probability Estimator

Designing manufacturing processes with high yield and strong reliability relies on effective methods for rare event estimation. Genealogical importance splitting reduces the variance of rare event probability estimators by iteratively selecting and replicating realizations that are headed towards a rare event. The replication step is difficult when applied to deterministic systems where the initial conditions of the offspring realizations need to be modified. Typically, a random perturbation is applied to the offspring to differentiate their trajectory from the parent realization. However, this random perturbation strategy may be effective for some systems while failing for others, preventing variance reduction in the probability estimate. This work seeks to address this limitation using a generative model such as a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to generate perturbations that are consistent with the attractor of the dynamical system. The proposed GAN-assisted Importance SPlitting method (GANISP) improves the variance reduction for the system targeted. An implementation of the method is available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/GANISP).

generative adversarial network↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncovering the True Active Sites in Ni–N–C Catalysts for CO 2 Electroreduction

Understanding and designing active sites in single-atom catalysts (SACs) requires going beyond static models to capture their dynamic evolution under realistic electrochemical conditions. Here, in this work, we develop an integrated theoretical framework that accounts for operational conditions, by combining grand canonical density functional theory (GC-DFT) with machine-learning-accelerated sampling, to uncover structure–activity–stability relationships in Ni–N–C SACs for the CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR). A library of NiN x C 4–x (x = 0–4) motifs─representing coordination defects likely formed during high-temperature synthesis─was systematically evaluated. Under working conditions, these sites were found to undergo hydrogenation, and NiN 3 C 1_ H 1 was identified as the most probable active site. At reducing potentials, hydrogen adsorbs spontaneously at C–Ni bridge sites rather than Ni top sites, while subsurface hydrogen facilitates bent CO 2 adsorption crucial for activation. High CO 2 RR selectivity toward CO arises from site separation: Ni centers drive CO2RR, while the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) occurs at the C–Ni bridge or N sites and from thermodynamic suppression of HER at moderate hydrogen coverage. At more negative potentials, a shift in the CO 2 RR rate-determining process (RDP) and Ni out-of-surface displacement induced by coadsorption of H and H 2 O jointly reduce activity and selectivity. Thus, both the high CO2RR selectivity of Ni–N–C catalysts and its reversal with more negative potentials can be rationalized by accounting for hydrogenated surfaces. This highlights the necessity of modeling realistic; in situ conditions. This framework provides generalizable insights into the dynamic behavior of active sites in SACs, offering guidance for the rational design of active and robust catalysts for a wide range of electrochemical reactions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Stochastic Quasi-Newton Method in the Absence of Common Random Numbers

We present Q-SASS, a quasi-Newton method for unconstrained stochastic optimization that does not rely on common random numbers. Most existing quasi-Newton approaches leverage common random numbers to construct second-order updates. However, motivated by challenges in variational quantum algorithms—where such coordination is not possible—we consider the setting in which function values and gradients are accessible only through noisy probabilistic zeroth- and first-order oracles, and no common random numbers can be exploited. We derive high-probability tail bounds on the iteration complexity of our algorithm for nonconvex, convex, and strongly convex (more generally, those satisfying the PL condition) objective functions. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical benefits of our quasi-Newton updating scheme on both synthetic and quantum chemistry problems.

Complexity bound↗
DOE OSTI2025

Re-examining urban rainfall enhancement over North America

Abstract Quantifying intensification/suppression of precipitation over urban areas relative to their rural surroundings can inform efforts to reduce urban flooding. Few studies have systematically addressed whether urban areas exhibit a higher/lower probability of precipitation and/or higher/lower annual total precipitation and/or intensification/weakening of intense precipitation events relative to nearby rural areas across a range of hydroclimatic conditions and urban contexts. Here we address this literature gap using the IMERG V07 data set and analyses of rural and urban samples drawn from 47 conurbations across North America. Specifically, we quantify whether/how precipitation regimes over the urban grid cells differ from those in rural grid cells located 100–250 km from the city center and at a similar elevation. As in previous research, there is evidence that both the probability of precipitation and annual total precipitation are typically higher in the urban grid cells. However, most conurbations have lower upper percentile precipitation rates in the urban sample and lower median precipitation rates above the 95th percentile than are present in samples drawn from rural grid cells. Thus, these conurbations are not, on average, intensifying high-magnitude precipitation events over urban grid cells. Further, the total volume of water accumulated at the surface during events of equivalent duration is not systematically higher over the urban areas, and 20 year return period values of 30 min and wettest pentad precipitation are also not systematically higher over the urban areas. The nature of urban modification of precipitation is a strong function of the prevailing hydroclimate. For example, the heaviest rainfall periods are enhanced over urban grid cells within regional hydroclimates where the overall probability of precipitation and annual total precipitation are low. Conversely, there is evidence for urban suppression of the highest percentile precipitation rates in wetter hydroclimates.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of the adhesion-force lever-arm “a” on the Rock ‘n’ Roll resuspension model and how to compute it from contact mechanics

The paper proposes a methodology to fill a gap in the context of mechanistic particle resuspension models related to the adhesion and lift force lever arms ( a ): to date, only one experimental observation exists from a centrifuge experiment with a specific particle/surface pair which found r P / a = 100 and assumed that the contact points were symmetric with respect to the particle center. However, the Reeks and Hall’s (2001) model is highly sensitive to this parameter, which therefore cannot be used as-is for different particle diameters or materials. This paper proposes a methodology to compute the adhesion and lift force lever arms ( a A and a L , respectively) based on Atomic Force Microcopy (AFM) surface roughness measurements and contact mechanics arguments. In practice, a spherical, perfectly smooth particle is brought in contact (computationally) with the measured surface roughness and is then rotated by the point of contact to determine the two or more asperities over which the particle would sit on the surface. A method to compute the asperity radius of curvature is devised to compute the asperity deformation and the correct partitioning of the total deformation between the particle and the asperity is presented. For the glass surface under consideration, the asperity deformation was negligible, i.e., it was below the van der Waals radius, which is the limit of applicability of contact mechanics. The Reeks and Hall’s (2001) model is then extended to account for the joint probability of a A and a L . Significant differences in particle resuspended after a day in common atmospheric conditions are found between the approach that uses the lever-arm distributions or their mean values. Also, important differences are found when comparing the lever-arm distribution and r P / a = 100. Hence, one should be cautious of using r P / a = 100 for surface/particle pairs differing from those in the original study. Finally, limits of applicability of the theories used are presented together with considerations regarding how to extend the method to non-spherical particles and different materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geometric pumping and dephasing at topological phase transition

A measure-preserving formalism (MPF) is constructed and applied to spin/band models, which yield observations about pumping. It occurs at the topological phase transition, i.e., a Z 2 flip, suggesting that Z 2 can imply bulk effects. The model's asymptotic behavior is analytically solved via MPF. The pumping probability is geometric, fractional, and has a ceiling of $\frac{1}{2}$. Intriguingly, theorems are proved about occurrence conditions, which are linked to the system's dimension and the distinction between rational and irrational numbers. Finally, experimental detection is discussed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lattice QCD constraints on the critical point from an improved precision equation of state

In this paper we employ lattice simulations to search for the critical point of QCD. We search for the onset of a first-order QCD transition on the phase diagram by following contours of constant entropy density from imaginary to real chemical potentials under conditions of strangeness neutrality. We scan the phase diagram and investigate whether these contours meet to determine the probability that the critical point is located in a certain region on the 𝑇−𝜇 𝐵 plane. To achieve this we introduce a new, continuum extrapolated equation of state at zero density with improved precision using lattices with 𝑁 𝜏 =8, 10, 12, 16 time slices, and supplement it with new data at imaginary chemical potential. The current precision allows us to exclude, at the 2⁢𝜎 level, the existence of a critical point at 𝜇 𝐵 <450 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Simplified Assessment Peak Equivalent Stress Design Limit Probability of Failure

The ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section III Division 5 Subsection HH Subpart A (HHA) outlines requirements and qualification methods for graphite core components in high temperature reactor environments. One such structural qualification method is the Simplified Assessment outlined in HHA-3220, which represents a comparison of service level specific equivalent stresses to allowable stress values derived from target probability of failures (POFs). The target POF is based on the structural reliability class (SRC) for the components and service condition of interest, and is used to establish design limits for combined membrane and peak equivalent stresses. Combined membrane stress limits are derived from two parameter Weibull distribution fits of the graphite grade specific tensile strength data and the target POF. The combined membrane stress limits are then scaled based on the ratio of flexural strength to tensile strength (referred hereinafter as Rtf) to establish the corresponding peak equivalent stress limits. It is desired that the target POF is at least maintained for both combined membrane and peak equivalent design limits, especially with the use of Rtf. The assessment presented herein examines tensile and flexural data for medium and fine grade graphites relative to the calculated combined membrane and peak equivalent stress limits per HHA-3220 and illustrates the simplified assessment method results in anticipated, or at least conservative, peak equivalent design stress limits.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

FPV Video Adaptation for UAV Collision Avoidance

First person view (FPV) technology for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) provides an immersive experience for pilots and enables various personal and commercial applications such as aerial photography, drone racing, search and rescue operations, agricultural surveillance, and structural inspection. While real time video streaming from a UAV and vision-based collision avoidance strategies have been studied in literature as separate topics, in this paper we tackle collision avoidance in FPV scenarios, taking into account network delays and real time video parameters. We present a theoretical model for obstacle collisions that considers the current communication channel conditions, the real time video parameters, and the UAV's position relative to the closest obstacle. A video adaptation algorithm is then designed, using this metric, to tune the FPV video resolution, number of re-transmission attempts, and the modulation scheme to maximize the probability of avoiding collisions. This algorithm also takes into account specific latency constraints of the application. This video algorithm was evaluated in various scenarios and its ability to respond to both distances to the obstacle as well as the communication channel conditions was demonstrated. It was found that, for the considered scenarios, the performance of the proposed adaptive algorithm was, on an average, 58.63% higher than the closest non-adaptive one in terms of maximizing the probability of avoiding collision. Such collision avoidance strategies could be used to make UAV FPV applications safer and more reliable.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic picture for particle number densities in stretched tips of the branching Brownian motion

Abstract In the framework of a stochastic picture for the one-dimensional branching Brownian motion, we compute the probability density of the number of particles near the rightmost one at a time T , that we take very large, when this extreme particle is conditioned to arrive at a predefined position x T chosen far ahead of its expected position m T . We recover the previously conjectured fact that the typical number density of particles at a distance Δ to the left of the lead particle, when both Δ and are large, is smaller than the mean number density by a factor proportional to , where ζ is a constant that was so far undetermined. Our picture leads to an expression for the probability density of the particle number, from which a value for ζ may be inferred.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Induced seismicity and geothermal energy production in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, California

We analyze the relationship between geothermal energy production and seismic hazards in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) between 1972 and 2022. A clear increase in seismic activity accompanies geothermal energy production and is greatest to the east of the Brawley fault, where the amount of injection exceeds the amount of production. We estimate that, whereas there was a 2% chance of a M6.07 earthquake nucleating inside the SSGF within a fifty-year period prior to energy production (pre-production), there is an equal probability that a M6.70 earthquake nucleates there in a fifty-year period during which historically average energy production conditions persist (syn-production). Similarly, we estimate a 2% chance of a M7.15 and M6.92 occurring in the broader Brawley Seismic Zone (excluding the SSGF) within a fifty-year period during the pre- and syn-production eras, respectively. We find that linear regression models fail to reliably forecast the background seismicity rate as a function of fluid production and injection.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

OH density, flux and loss probability measurements in a room temperature atmospheric pressure surface discharge by microscopic laser induced fluorescence

Many applications involving atmospheric pressure plasma-substrate interactions are enabled by the large fluxes of short-lived reactive species such as OH radicals to the substrate, nonetheless, the accurate measurement of radical densities and fluxes at substrates at atmospheric pressure has received little attention to date, particularly for surface ionization waves. We report the measurement of the OH density distribution in a surface discharge on a fused silica (quartz) substrate generated by an impinging atmospheric pressure plasma jet in dry and humid helium. The OH density is measured by microscopic laser induced fluorescence with a spatial resolution of 10 µm in the direction perpendicular to the quartz substrate. The measured OH diffusive flux varied for the investigated experimental conditions by almost three orders of magnitude and had a maximum value of 1.7 × 10 15 cm -2 s -1 . The corresponding surface loss probability of OH on the quartz surface was determined to be ~0.01. The high spatial resolution was required to accurately resolve the near surface gradient of OH radicals.

plasma-surface interactions↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating the Trajectory and Biomass Growth of Free-Floating Macroalgal Cultivation Platforms along the U.S. West Coast

Trajectory tracking and macroalgal growth models were coupled to support a novel macroalgae-harvesting concept known as the Nautical Off-shore Macroalgal Autonomous Device (NOMAD). The NOMAD consists of 5 km long carbon-fiber longlines that are seeded and free float southward along the U.S. West Coast for approximately 3 months before harvesting off the California coast, taking advantage of favorable environmental conditions. The trajectory and macroalgal growth models were applied to answer planning questions pertinent to the techno-economic analysis such as identifying the preferred release location, approximate pathway, timing until harvest, and estimated growth. Trajectories were determined with the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) model, using 11 years of current and wind data, determining probabilities by running nearly 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations varying the start time and location. An accompanying macroalgal growth model was used to estimate the growth of macroalgae based on the trajectory tracks and environmental forcing products, including light, temperature and nutrients. Model results show that NOMAD lines transit south in the months of April to September due to seasonal currents, taking approximately 3 months to reach Southern California. During transit, NOMAD lines are dispersed but typically avoid beaching or passing through marine sanctuaries. NOMAD lines can yield up to 30 kg wet weight per meter of cultivation line.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Field validation of data-driven BSDF and peak extraction models for light-scattering fabric shades

Shading and daylighting systems affect cooling, heating, and lighting energy use by modulating solar radiation through the building façade. Characterizing shading systems holistically and accurately helps designers and engineers evaluate shading systems to achieve energy and non-energy performance goals. These complex fenestration systems can be modeled using Bidirectional Scattering Distribution Functions (BSDF), which map incident radiation to hemispherical distributions of outgoing radiation. Data-driven, tabulated BSDFs are derived from interpolated goniophotometer measured data, then sampled during the raytracing calculation. A peak extraction (PE) algorithm was developed to circumvent limits in BSDF angular resolution, where the specular peak is extracted during simulation by evaluating the BSDF in the through direction and surrounding region. The objective of this study was to validate this measurement and modeling workflow using field monitored data from a full scale testbed with eleven installed fabrics of different weaves, openness factors, and colors and assess the accuracy of the workflow under different adaptation and contrast conditions. Test conditions were limited to clear sky conditions with the sun in the field of view. Results showed that, for tensor tree datasets, vertical illuminance, solar luminance (2.5° apex), and daylight glare probability (DGP) were predicted to within a mean bias error (MBE) error of -456 lx (-12.3%), -3.46e5 (-38.4%), and -0.042 (-7.8%) when full PE occurred. With a binary classification of glare/ no glare, DGP was predicted accurately with a true positive rate of 0.98 and true negative rate of 1.0 using tensor tree data and less accurately with Klems BSDF data, particularly for cases of no glare. The workflow may be of insufficient accuracy to distinguish borderline performance between fabrics using the four-point glare scale, particularly under low adaptation, high contrast daylit conditions. Errors were due to reductions in peak shape and intensity across the BSDF interpolation and data reduction workflow. Future work is needed to better preserve measurement fidelity during interpolation and sampling, which in turn will improve PE performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reagent-Triggered Isomerization of Fluxional Cluster Catalyst via Dynamic Coupling

Metallic cluster catalysts have many thermodynamically accessible isomers with diverse active sites and low reaction barriers, and lately a strong hypothesis emerged that the many catalyst states collectively drive the catalysis. Furthermore, it remained a hypothesis that catalyst isomerization is actually kinetically feasible under the current reaction conditions. Using high-temperature dynamics simulations and sampling, a range of orientations, and vibrational energy distributions, we probe how thermal effects and molecular events affect cluster catalyst dynamics. We show that even such a delicate affair as the dissociation or scattering of a methane molecule on the heavy and thus slow Pt 13 cluster triggers substantial isomerization of the catalyst, far beyond thermal at 700 K. A kinetic coupling between the methane activity and cluster catalyst dynamics is observed. In return, the thermal dynamics of the cluster affects the methane reaction and scattering probabilities. Hence, molecular events at the surfaces of fluxional cluster catalysts should facilitate the population of an ensemble of catalyst states under the current reaction conditions, with implications for available active sites, reaction mechanisms, and apparent rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗