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At least 217 records · Page 12

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper I: Foundations and Replication Dynamics

We develop a pre-geometric cosmological framework in which existence is identified with a finite amount of unstructured energy possessing vibration as its only intrinsic property. This vibrational substrate occupies an open, bounded spectral interval $(\omega_{\min},\omega_{\max})$, ensuring finiteness of total energy and excluding infinitely stable configurations. The substrate evolves under two fundamental and competing tendencies---excitation, which amplifies coherence, and randomization, which scrambles it. Their balance produces a metastable unstructured regime in which rare fluctuations may form long-lived self-consistent spectral configurations. Because the substrate is finite and subject to competing order--disorder dynamics, no coherent configuration can be perpetually stable. We show that the only mechanism capable of sustaining long-lived organization is a replication instability: a coherent unit may reproduce into multiple offspring according to a general $1\!\to n$ rule. Replication consumes energy from the finite substrate, breaks the metastable symmetry, and induces a discrete notion of event time through the replication tick $\Delta\tau$. Temporal succession is defined through correlation ordering of spectral microstates, producing an intrinsic pre-causal structure. The compactness of the spectral domain imposes minimal and maximal timescales, bounds the internal coherence of emergent units, and limits their proliferation. These spectral constraints serve as precursors for the emergence of geometry, adjacency, and a limiting propagation speed, developed in subsequent papers of this series. Paper I provides the foundational axioms (PG1--PG9) governing the spectral substrate, its metastable dynamics, the formation of coherent units, and the necessity of replication, establishing a fully pre-geometric stage from which causal and geometric structure naturally emerge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling

The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3, documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe the application of the hydraulic property fields and recharge parameters documented in ECF-HANFORD-20-0027, Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model, to the CA flow and fate and transport simulation results to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated results due to input parameter selection. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, models lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. The result of NSCM analysis is a set of F&T simulations that provide an estimate of the range of possible outcomes that are used to quantify the uncertainty in simulated concentrations produced using the base case simulations. The simulated concentrations from all simulations will support calculation of the uncertainty of the total dose calculated in a separate calculation.

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Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling

The Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by Central Plateau Cleanup Company (CPCCo) at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the composite analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3 documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application.

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Predictive Contaminant Transport Simulation with P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Limited Source Sensitivity Case.

The Plateau to River (P2R) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by the Central Plateau Cleanup Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3 documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. Simulations conducted to support the dose calculations required by the CA are documented in ECF-HANFORD-19-0119, Predictive Flow Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case and ECF-HANFORD-19-0120, Contaminant Transport Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case.

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Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

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A Mass‐Conserving‐Perceptron for Machine‐Learning‐Based Modeling of Geoscientific Systems

Although decades of effort have been devoted to building Physical-Conceptual (PC) models for predicting the time-series evolution of geoscientific systems, recent work shows that Machine Learning (ML) based Gated Recurrent Neural Network technology can be used to develop models that are much more accurate. However, the difficulty of extracting physical understanding from ML-based models complicates their utility for enhancing scientific knowledge regarding system structure and function. Here, we propose a physically interpretable Mass-Conserving-Perceptron (MCP) as a way to bridge the gap between PC-based and ML-based modeling approaches. The MCP exploits the inherent isomorphism between the directed graph structures underlying both PC models and GRNNs to explicitly represent the mass-conserving nature of physical processes while enabling the functional nature of such processes to be directly learned (in an interpretable manner) from available data using off-the-shelf ML technology. As a proof of concept, we investigate the functional expressivity (capacity) of the MCP, explore its ability to parsimoniously represent the rainfall-runoff (RR) dynamics of the Leaf River Basin, and demonstrate its utility for scientific hypothesis testing. To conclude, we discuss extensions of the concept to enable ML-based physical-conceptual representation of the coupled nature of mass-energy-information flows through geoscientific systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Using Temporal Deep Learning Models to Estimate Daily Snow Water Equivalent Over the Rocky Mountains

Abstract In this study we construct and compare three different deep learning (DL) models for estimating daily snow water equivalent (SWE) from high‐resolution gridded meteorological fields over the Rocky Mountain region. To train the DL models, Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) station‐based SWE observations are used as the prediction target. All DL models produce higher median Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values than a conceptual SWE model and interpolated gridded data sets, although mean squared errors also tend to be higher. Sensitivity of the SWE prediction to the model's input variables is analyzed using an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) method, yielding insight into the physical relationships learned by the models. This method reveals the dominant role precipitation and temperature play in snowpack dynamics. In applying our models to estimate SWE throughout the Rocky Mountains, an extrapolation problem arises since the statistical properties of SWE (e.g., annual maximum) and geographical properties of individual grid points (e.g., elevation) differ from the training data. This problem is solved by normalizing the SWE with its historical maximum value to alleviate extrapolation for all tested DL models. Our work shows that the DL models are promising tools for estimating SWE, and sufficiently capture relevant physical relationships to make them useful for spatial and temporal extrapolation of SWE values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chain Flexibility and Structure of a Polyimide Copolymer: Revisiting the Freely Rotating Chain Model

Poly(4–4′-oxydiphenylene-pyromellitimide)-based polyimides─trade name Kapton─have wide-ranging engineering applications owing to their thermal and mechanical stability, but little is known about underlying chain-level characteristics. While theoretical models have conceptualized Kapton as inflexible polycyclic rods separated by freely rotating diphenyl ether hinge groups, the model’s core predictions remain untested and subtleties of the relaxation behavior are missed, which atomistic modeling can resolve. To these ends, we examine all-atom Kapton structures in crystalline and glassy amorphous configurations using a DFT-validated class II force field. Constructing amorphous configurations is challenging, as the fused-ring-containing backbone has slow relaxation dynamics and scaling suggestive of entanglements even in oligomers. In conclusion, we find larger backbone rearrangements of the linear polycyclic segments about ether groups that are consistent with the rod-hinge picture on the monomer scale, whereas a ring rotation analysis suggests partially flexible rod-like segments and involves multiple facile rotational relaxation modes.

Liesen, Nicholas T. [Lawrence Livermore National L↗

Hot Springs and Geysers: Exploring Historical and Modern Impacts of Geothermal Energy Production on Associated Natural Surface Systems and Standardizing Management Practices

Surface thermal features, most notably hot springs and geysers are increasingly being recognized for their importance to ecosystems, indigenous cultures, and in some cases agriculture, recreation, and tourism. Geothermal project development poses a potential risk to these natural features but current regulatory requirements for assessing and managing these risks during exploration, permitting and monitoring are somewhat inconsistent and unpredictable across different geothermal fields. This has resulted in uncertainty and increases in exploration risk for geothermal energy developers that have led to costly project delays, cancellations, or hesitation to commit. Varying regulatory requirements may also influence public perception, fostering confusion, distrust and ultimately opposition to geothermal projects, further contributing to project delays or cancellations. At a time when there is an increasing urgency for reliable baseload clean energy, geothermal is a net-zero, renewable solution that additionally provides access to more equitable and environmentally just clean power. Continued integration of geothermal energy into the national energy roadmap can be facilitated through consistent and predictable permitting, providing regulators the framework they need, developers a clear path forward, and transparency that the public deserves. This project, currently in its beginning phases, seeks to address this important issue by providing a technical basis from which to build a preliminary protocol for assessing and managing potential impacts from new or existing geothermal energy projects to surface thermal features and their associated ecosystems. Development of this preliminary protocol will be informed by (1) a literature review of well-documented case studies in the western U.S. and New Zealand to understand the range of conditions that exemplify geothermal-surface thermal systems; (2) development of generic illustrative conceptual-numerical models to quantify, understand, and predict the first-order controls (e.g., pressure and permeability) on surface flows; and (3) additional independent and scientifically rigorous evaluations of geothermal-surface thermal system case studies from the Basin and Range Province that incorporate publicly available data as well as data provided by industry through data-sharing agreements. Learning from the successes of the process used to develop the Induced Seismicity Management Protocol (ISMP), we ultimately aim to use these initial efforts as a springboard for establishing a surface thermal feature management working group that will work collaboratively to finalize the protocol as well as co-create recommended best practices for implementation. We envision that the working group will primarily be composed of representatives from regulatory entities, government agencies, Tribes, academia, national laboratories, and industry, and will include early and regular engagement with community organizations and environmental groups. This will help ensure broad acceptance and implementation of the protocol, which will facilitate a more consistent, predictable, and standardized regulatory process, and help to ensure that geothermal energy continues to provide a reliable source of clean energy, and a pathway to achieving greater energy equity in the U.S.

Best Practices↗

SOLPS-ITER modeling of drift effects in DIII-D double-null AT configurations (Final Report)

At the DIII-D tokamak, our collaborative research program supported divertor development. Specifically, we focused on slot-type divertors called SAS divertors. Modeling of conceptual SAS configurations with SOLPS-ITER, including full drifts, has provided insights that can guide future modeling and experimental research related to tightly baffled slot divertors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

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Predicting Emission Source Terms in a Reduced-Order Fire Spread Model—Part 1: Particulate Emissions

A simple, easy-to-evaluate, surrogate model was developed for predicting the particle emission source term in wildfire simulations. In creating this model, we conceptualized wildfire as a series of flamelets, and using this concept of flamelets, we developed a one-dimensional model to represent the structure of these flamelets which then could be used to simulate the evolution of a single flamelet. A previously developed soot model was executed within this flamelet simulation which could produce a particle size distribution. Executing this flamelet simulation 1200 times with varying conditions created a data set of emitted particle size distributions to which simple rational equations could be tuned to predict a particle emission factor, mean particle size, and standard deviation of particle sizes. These surrogate models (the rational equation) were implemented into a reduced-order fire spread model, QUIC-Fire. Using QUIC-Fire, an ensemble of simulations were executed for grassland fires, southeast U.S. conifer forests, and western mountain conifer forests. Resulting emission factors from this ensemble were compared against field data for these fire classes with promising results. Also shown is a predicted averaged resulting particle size distribution with the bulk of particles produced to be on the order of 1 μm in size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model Package Report: Central Plateau Vadose Zone Models

This model package report describes concisely the modeling objectives, conceptualization, implementation, uncertainty and sensitivity, configuration control, limitations, data needs, and recommendations for improvement of the Central Plateau Vadose Zone Models. This collection of models is developed to meet the vadose zone simulation needs of the Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA), the Hanford Site Cumulative Impact Evaluation (CIE), and are expected to find other applications in Hanford Site remedial cleanup decision-making processes. This model package report describes and documents the development of the models themselves to fulfill technical approaches defined for the CA and the CIE. This report does not document any specific calculation using these models: instead, applications of individual vadose models to perform specific calculations will be documented in environmental calculation files, including inputs and results, as appropriate. Configuration management for the Central Plateau Vadose Zone Models is managed through assignment of unique sequential numerical version numbers and archival of the models in the Environmental Modeling Management Archive.

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DECOVALEX-2023: Task F2-Salt Final Report

The subject of Task F of DECOVALEX-2023 concerns performance assessment modelling of radioactive waste disposal in deep mined repositories. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. In Task F2-(salt), these objectives have been accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Coupled-process submodels and deterministic simulations of the entire PA model for a reference scenario for waste disposal in domal salt have been conducted. The task specification has been updated continuously since the initiation of the project to reflect the staged development of the conceptual repository model and performance metrics.

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DECOVALEX-2023: Task F2 Salt Final Report

The subject of Task F of DECOVALEX-2023 concerns performance assessment modelling of radioactive waste disposal in deep mined repositories. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. In Task F2- (salt), these objectives have been accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Coupled-process submodels and deterministic simulations of the entire PA model for a reference scenario for waste disposal in domal salt have been conducted. The task specification has been updated continuously since the initiation of the project to reflect the staged development of the conceptual repository model and performance metrics. Thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical properties of individual components of the engineered and natural system were chosen for relevance by participating teams. The salt reference case system was characterized using data and measurements collected at relevant underground research laboratories (URLs), field sites, and simulation results from teams with specialized modelling capability. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation. No single contributed model includes full-fidelity representation of all the features, events, and processes (FEPs) detailed in the task specification, but almost all features and processes are represented in at least one model. Despite differences in the modelling strategies developed by participating teams, all models indicate that salt compaction and radionuclide diffusion are key processes in the repository, and for the FEPs and model scenario considered, little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000 year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. The models tend to be more similar further from waste and at later time. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the task specification, some of which are chosen simplifications to reduce complexity, and some are restrictions imposed by the modelling tools. A second round of this task has been accepted for DECOVALEX-2027 in conjunction with Task F1 on crystalline PA modelling. The future round includes waste package heating, improved modelling of salt creep closure, additional comparisons of coupled-process sub-models, and the impact of repository engineering design on radionuclide migration in the repository. Participants will also propose and finalize a set of uncertain inputs for the reference case simulations, propagate these uncertainties in a set of realizations, and conduct sensitivity analyses on the simulation results.

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A Comparison of RESRAD and GoldSim Models for Assessing Radiological Dose for a RCRA Landfill - 20418

US Ecology Idaho (USEI) operates a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle C, Hazardous Waste Treatment, Storage, and Disposal (TSD) Facility on a 640-acre property in Owyhee County, Idaho. USEI accepts a wide variety of RCRA-exempt low activity radioactive wastes, including naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) and technologically enhanced NORM (TENORM) (USEI 2009). The performance of the landfill with regard to radiological operating permit requirements was previously assessed using a model constructed with the residual radioactivity (RESRAD) computer program, developed by Argonne National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). RESRAD supports the evaluation of several environmental transport pathways related to a radionuclide-contaminated soil source term, but it was not conceived as a model for the evaluation of landfill radiological performance. A more comprehensive and realistic model is desired in order to better support submissions to both the State of Idaho's Department of Environmental Quality as well as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A Performance Assessment (PA) computer model was developed using GoldSim software for the USEI RCRA Subtitle C landfill. The RESRAD computer model was specifically developed for calculating soil cleanup criteria and radiological dose and cancer risk from residual radioactive material in soil. To evaluate site-specific conditions, users may select from among a number of available environmental transport and exposure pathways and modify 'default' parameter values. In GoldSim, a user must construct the model 'from scratch.' However, this modeling is facilitated by a number of specialized elements available in GoldSim to support a radiological mass transport model. These include elements for defining radiological decay and ingrowth, container failure and radiological release, advective and diffusive transport, and other processes. Advantages afforded by the use of RESRAD for modeling radiological dose for a RCRA Subtitle C landfill include ease of use and reasonable flexibility in specifying site-specific conditions. GoldSim allows for considerably more flexibility and site-specificity than RESRAD, including evaluation of potentially relevant environmental transport processes not supported in RESRAD. The probabilistic modeling capabilities of GoldSim also far exceed those of RESRAD. The pros and cons of RESRAD and GoldSim for this modeling problem are explored with a focus on identifying approaches and critical factors in identifying the appropriate platform. The capabilities of RESRAD and GoldSim for mathematically modeling the disposal system will be contrasted and compared. For example, the existing RESRAD radiological safety assessment evaluated potentially complete exposure pathways related to infiltration to groundwater and upwards diffusion of radon. Additional transport pathways identified in the USEI Idaho facility Conceptual Site Model include deposition of radon decay products in cover material, root uptake of radionuclides in disposed wastes by native plants, and mixing of cover material by burrowing animals. Results of the two models and how the different transport and dose pathways affect results will be discussed. (authors)

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