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At least 217 records · Page 12

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of two swept-infinite-wing potential/viscous-flow computer programs

Two computer programs capable of predicting the potential and viscous interacting flow around wings of infinite aspect ratio was evaluated. The programs are compared in terms of their capabilities, the approximations and the methods of solution used, and the input requirements. Six airfoils, each representative of a class of airfoils, are used as test airfoils. The results predicted by the programs are presented for each airfoil at sweep angles of 0, 20, and 40 degrees over a range of angles of attack. The results show that at zero sweep both programs predicted the aerodynamic coefficients well and generally in good agreement with measurements. At 20 and 40 degrees of sweep, as there are no experimental data available, definitive conclusions cannot be drawn about the accuracy of the predictions although the results are presented and discussed. The execution times are approximately the same for the two programs.

Arimilli, R. V.↗

High Voltage TAL Performance

The performance of a two-stage, anode layer Hall thruster was evaluated. Experiments were conducted in single and two-stage configurations. In single-stage configuration, the thruster was operated with discharge voltages ranging from 300 to 1700 V. Discharge specific impulses ranged from 1630 to 4140 sec. Thruster investigations were conducted with input power ranging from 1 to 8.7 kW, corresponding to power throttling of nearly 9: 1. An extensive two-stage performance map was generated. Data taken with total voltage (sum of discharge and accelerating voltage) constant revealed a decrease in thruster efficiency as the discharge voltage was increased. Anode specific impulse values were comparable in the single and two-stage configurations showing no strong advantage for two-stage operation.

Jacobson, David T.↗

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Storm↗

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The evolution of very low mass stars

The results of numerical evolutionary calculations for stars with masses in the range of 0.01-0.10 solar mass are presented. The stellar models by which these stars are followed from the early stages of contraction through deuterium burning to the very late stages of degenerate cooling at ages comparable to that of the Galaxy are described, and the methodology used to investigate the major uncertainties in the input physics are discussed. It is found that, for brown dwarfs with masses substantially below the end of the hydrogen-burning main sequence, the evolution of the effective temperature and bolometric luminosity are fairly well determined, despite the residual uncertainties in the input physics. In particular, the evolution is remarkably insensitive to the choice of the atmospheric opacity law at low temperatures and to the amount of mismatch in specific entropy across the stellar envelope. The minimum mass for a star to attain main-sequence status is moderately sensitive to the assumed input physics, particularly the surface boundary conditions.

Nelson, L. A.↗

A Functional Simulator of Spacecraft Resources

The SPAcecraft SIMulator (SPASIM) simulates the functions and resources of a spacecraft to quickly perform Phase A trade-off analyses and uncover any operational bottlenecks during any part of the mission. Failure modes and operational contingencies can be evaluated allowing optimization for a range of mission scenarios. The payloads and subsystems are simulated, using a hierarchy of graphical models, in terms of how their functions affect resources such as propellant, power, and data. Any of the inputs and outputs of the payloads and subsystems can be plotted during the simulation. Most trade-off analyses, including those that compare current versus advanced technology, can be performed by changing values in the parameter menus. However, when a component is replaced by one with a different functional architecture, its graphical model can also be modified or replaced by drawing from a component library. SPASIM has been validated using several spacecraft designs which were at least at the Critical Design Review level. The user and programmer guide, including figures, is available on line as a hyper text document. This is an easy-to-use and expand tool which is based on MATLAB and SIMULINK. It runs on SGI workstations and PCs under Windows 95 or NT.

Liceaga, Carlos A.↗

Estimating Mangrove Aboveground Biomass from Airborne LiDAR Data: a Case Study from the Zambezi River Delta

Mangroves are ecologically and economically important forested wetlands with the highest carbon (C) density of all terrestrial ecosystems. Because of their exceptionally large C stocks and importance as a coastal buffer, their protection and restoration has been proposed as an effective mitigation strategy for climate change. The inclusion of mangroves in mitigation strategies requires the quantification of C stocks (both above and belowground) and changes to accurately calculate emissions and sequestration. A growing number of countries are becoming interested in using mitigation initiatives, such as REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation), in these unique coastal forests. However, it is not yet clear how methods to measure C traditionally used for other ecosystems can be modified to estimate biomass in mangroves with the precision and accuracy needed for these initiatives. Airborne Lidar (ALS) data has often been proposed as the most accurate way for larger scale assessments but the application of ALS for coastal wetlands is scarce, primarily due to a lack of contemporaneous ALS and field measurements. Here, we evaluated the variability in field and Lidar-based estimates of aboveground biomass (AGB) through the combination of different local and regional allometric models and standardized height metrics that are comparable across spatial resolutions and sensor types, the end result being a simplified approach for accurately estimating mangrove AGB at large scales and determining the uncertainty by combining multiple allometric models.We then quantified wall-to-wall AGB stocks of a tall mangrove forest in the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique. Our results indicate that the Lidar H100 height metric correlates well with AGB estimates, with R(exp 2) between 0.80 and 0.88 and RMSE of 33% or less. When comparing Lidar H100 AGB derived from three allometric models, mean AGB values range from 192 Mg ha(exp −1) up to 252 Mg ha(exp −1).We suggest the best model to predict AGB was based on the East Africa specific allometry and a power-based regression that used Lidar H100 as the height input with an R(exp 2) of 0.85 and an RMSE of 122 Mg ha(exp −1) or 33%. The total AGB of the Lidar inventoried mangrove area (6654 ha) was 1 350 902 Mg with a mean AGB of 203 Mg ha(exp −1) +/-166 Mg ha(exp −1). Because the allometry suggested here was developed using standardized height metrics, it is recommended that the models can generate AGB estimates using other remote sensing instruments that are more readily accessible over other mangrove ecosystems on a large scale, and as part of future carbon monitoring efforts in mangroves.

Fatoyinbo, Temilola↗

Physical Evaluation of GPM DPR Single- and Dual-Wavelength Algorithms

A physical evaluation of the rain profiling retrieval algorithms for the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) aboard the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite is carried out by applying them to the hydrometeor profiles generated from measured raindrop size distributions (DSD). The DSD-simulated radar profiles are used as input to the algorithms, and their estimates of hydrometeors' parameters are compared with the same quantities derived directly from the DSD data (or truth). The retrieval accuracy is assessed by the degree to which the estimates agree with the truth. To check the validity and robustness of the retrievals, the profiles are constructed for cases ranging from fully correlated (or uniform) to totally uncorrelated DSDs along the columns. Investigation into the sensitivity of the retrieval results to the model assumptions is made to characterize retrieval uncertainties and identify error sources. Comparisons between the single- and dual-wavelength algorithm performance are carried out with either a single- or dual-wavelength constraint of the path integral or differential path integral attenuation. The results suggest that the DPR dual-wavelength algorithm generally provides accurate range-profiled estimates of rainfall rate and mass-weighted diameter with the dual-wavelength estimates superior in accuracy to those from the single-wavelength retrievals.

Liang Liao↗

Smc-Last Point Source Catalog Spitzer'S Last Survey of the Small Magellanic Cloud

We present a processing for the point source catalog derived from Spitzer's final two surveys of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). These 2017-2018 maps duplicate the footprint from the SAGE-SMC program from 2008 and were obtained at 3.6 and 4.5 μm with the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC). They provide a nearly 10-year baseline of all observations of the SMC made by Spitzer. We extracted point sources from both the basic calibrated data (BCD) as well as the final processed mosaics. We did not use any prior catalogs as inputs in order to search for moving objects (e.g., foreground brown dwarfs) and other transient phenomena. The extractions from two test fields are shown here: a field sparsely populated with stars and a second containing more complicated structures. Comparing our extractions between both of our epochs and with the SAGE epochs shows the completeness and range of our survey. The mosaics are currently available on the Infrared Science Archive (IRSA) and the Harvard Dataverse. The final point source catalog will be available at both archives, as well. This work is supported by NASA Award 80NSSC19K0585.

Thomas Kuchar↗

Node support input to HydroGEN STCH project quarterly report

n this quarter, we further refined our water splitting (WS) reaction calculations on the surface of SrTi 0.5 Mn 0.5 O 3 . Among various surface configurations for WS imposed by surface orientations, terminations, and neighboring chemical species, we hypothesized that (1) the WS reaction energy should be exothermic and (2) the surface oxygen vacancy formation energy should be in a reasonable range compared to the bulk oxygen vacancy formation energy to be accessible during the reduction and WS reaction conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Purging of a tank-mounted multilayer insulation system by gas diffusion

The investigation was conducted on a multilayer insulation (MLI) system mounted on a spherical liquid hydrogen propellant tank. The MLI consisted of two blankets of insulation each containing 15 double-aluminized Mylar radiation shields separated by double silk net spacers. The gaseous nitrogen initially contained within the MLI system and vacuum chamber was purged with gaseous helium introduced both underneath the MLI and into the vacuum chamber. The MLI panels were assumed to be purged primarily by means of gas diffusion. Overall, test results indicated that nitrogen concentrations well below 1 percent could be achieved everywhere within the MLI system. Typical times to achieve 1 percent nitrogen concentration within the MLI panels ranged from 69 minutes at the top of the tank to 158 minutes at the bottom of the tank. Four space-hold thermal performance tests indicated no significant thermal degradation of the MLI system had occurred due to the purge tests conducted. The final measured heat input attributed to the MLI was 7.23 watts as compared to 7.18 watts for the initial baseline thermal performance test.

Sumner, I. E.↗

Comparison of measured ozone in southeastern Virginia with computer predictions from a photochemical model

Data for one day of the 1977 southeastern Virginia urban plume study are compared with computer predictions from a traveling air parcel model using a contemporary photochemical mechanism with a minimal description of nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) constitution and chemistry. With measured initial NOx and O3 concentrations and a current separate estimate of urban source loading input to the model, and for a variation of initial NMHC over a reasonable range, an ozone increase over the day is predicted from the photochemical simulation which is consistent with the flight path averaged airborne data.

Wakelyn, N. T.↗

The use of atmospheric measurements to constrain model predictions of ozone change from chlorine perturbations

Atmospheric photochemistry models have been used to predict the sensitivity of the ozone layer to various perturbations. These same models also predict concentrations of chemical species in the present day atmosphere which can be compared to observations. Model results for both present day values and sensitivity to perturbation depend upon input data for reaction rates, photodissociation rates, and boundary conditions. A method of combining the results of a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis with the existing set of present atmospheric species measurements is developed. The method is used to examine the range of values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine perturbations that is possible within the currently accepted ranges for input data. It is found that model runs which predict ozone column losses much greater than 10 percent as a result of present fluorocarbon fluxes produce concentrations and column amounts in the present atmosphere which are inconsistent with the measurements for ClO, HCl, NO, NO2, and HNO3.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

Research on plasma-puff initiation of high Coulomb transfer switches

The plasma-puff triggering mechanism based on hypocycloidal pinch geometry was investigated to determine the optimal operating conditions for an azimuthally uniform surface flashover which initiates plasma-puff under wide ranges of fill gas pressures of Ar, He and N2. Research is presented and resulting conference papers are attached. These papers include 'Characteristics of Plasma-Puff Trigger for an Inverse-Pinch Plasma Switch'; 'Ultra-High-Power Plasma Switch INPUTS for Pulse Power Systems'; 'Characteristics of Switching Plasma in an Inverse-Pinch Switch'; 'Comparative Study of INPIStron and Spark Gap'; and 'INPIStron Switched Pulsed Power for Dense Plasma Pinches.'

Venable, Demetrius D.↗

PET Imaging of Leg Arteries for Determining the Input Function in PET/MRI Brain Studies Using a Compact, MRI-Compatible PET System

In this work, we used a compact, high-resolution, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-compatible positron emission tomography (PET) camera (VersaPET) to assess the feasibility of measuring the image-derived input function (IDIF) from arteries in the leg with the ultimate goal of enabling fully quantitative PET brain imaging without blood sampling. We used this approach in five 18 F-FDG PET/MRI brain studies in which the input function was also acquired using the gold standard of serial arterial blood sampling. After accounting for partial volume, dispersion, and calibration effects, we compared the metabolic rates of glucose (MRglu) quantified from VersaPET IDIFs in 80 brain regions to those using the gold standard and achieved a bias and variability of <5% which is within the range of reported test-retest values for this type of study. We also achieved a strong linear relationship (R 2 >0.97) against the gold standard across regions. The results of this preliminary study are promising and support further studies to optimize methods, validate in a larger cohort, and extend to the modeling of other radiotracers.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Jupiter's radiation belt ions - A comparison of theory and observation

Radial profiles are constructed for the Jovian radiation belt flux-tube content Y-asterisk from the reported phase-space density of energetic particles obtained from Voyager 1 data over the range L = 6 to L = 9. These experimental profiles are compared with theoretical solutions for Y-asterisk from an interchange-diffusion model of the coupled radiation belt and Iogenic ion populations. Subject to certain limitations of the Voyager 1 data, the model solutions are found to be consistent with the data for a variety of input parameters. Model solutions are also found corresponding to radiation belt ions that are expected to be mainly responsible for the auroral energy input. Comparison of the present theoretical profiles with the data implies that the energetic radiation belt ions should have a peak loss rate within a factor of three of that for strong diffusion scattering.

Summers, Danny↗

Modeling Landslide Susceptibility Over Large Regions with Fuzzy Overlay

Landslide susceptibility mapping is most effective if detailed surface and subsurface information can be combined with authoritative landslide catalogs or a deep understanding of local conditions. However, these types of homogeneous input data and catalogs are frequently not available over large areas. In this study, we model landslide susceptibility in Central America and the Caribbean islands by combining three globally available datasets and one regional dataset with fuzzy overlay. This primarily heuristic model provides the flexibility to test a range of different contributing variables and the capability to compare landslide inventories within the model framework that vary greatly in their size, spatiotemporal scope, and collection methods. We create a regional susceptibility map and evaluate its performance using receiver operating characteristics for both continuous and binned susceptibility values. This susceptibility map forms the basis for a near-real-time landslide hazard assessment system that couples susceptibility with rainfall and soil moisture triggers to estimate potential landslide activity at a regional scale. The application of this susceptibility model at the regional scale provides a foundation for transferring the methodology to other geographic areas.

Landslide↗