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NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds

The uncertainty in the global climate sensitivity to an equilibrium doubling of carbon dioxide is often stated to be 1.5-4.5 K, largely due to uncertainties in cloud feedbacks. The lower end of this range is based on the assumption or prediction in some GCMs that cloud liquid water behaves adiabatically, thus implying that cloud optical thickness will increase in a warming climate if the physical thickness of clouds is invariant. Satellite observations of low-level cloud optical thickness and liquid water path have challenged this assumption, however, at low and middle latitudes. We attempt to explain the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) site in the Southern Great Plains. We find that low cloud liquid water path is insensitive to temperature in winter but strongly decreases with temperature in summer. The latter occurs because surface relative humidity decreases with warming, causing cloud base to rise and clouds to geometrically thin. Meanwhile, inferred liquid water contents hardly vary with temperature, suggesting entrainment depletion. Physically, the temperature dependence appears to represent a transition from higher probabilities of stratified boundary layers at cold temperatures to a higher incidence of convective boundary layers at warm temperatures. The combination of our results and the earlier satellite findings imply that the minimum climate sensitivity should be revised upward from 1.5 K.

DelGenio, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS1999

Rapid Vegetational Change in Coastal North America: The Response to Climate Since the LGM

The late-glacial interval provided rapid shifts in climate which are mirrored by dramatic vegetational changes in North America. Through a transect of lake and mire sites from Connecticut to Virginia on the east coast and Kodiak Island on the western coast, we trace the warming following the LGM with the response of forests and tundra. A brief cold reversal in Virginia is seen from 12,260 to 12,200. The subsequent longer and extreme Younger Dryas event is marked in the southern New England - New Jersey region by dramatic boreal and deciduous forest changes. In the southeastern US, forests also change rapidly, with hemlock forest expansion suggesting increased moisture. In Kodiak Island, the warm, moist tundra of the Bolling/Allerod is replaced by colder, windswept Empetrum-dominated tundra during the Younger Dryas. The Pleistocene/Holocene shift in vegetation is remarkably pronounced in eastern North America as well as the Alaskan coastline. Response time of vegetation to climate change appears to be on the order of decades throughout these coastal locations, probably because of the proximity of sites to important ecotonal boundaries, and the magnitude of the events. Even in Virginia's Holocene record, a cold reversal inferred from increases in spruce and fir is noted at 7500 C14 yr BP. This response of the forests to a short-lived cooling shows the sensitivity of the biosphere to a rapid climate shifts.

Peteet, Dorothy↗

NASA NTRS2002

Convection and Easterly Waves Observed in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ During EPIC2001

During the last three weeks of September 2001, the East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System (EPIC2001) intensive field campaign focused on studies of deep convection in the ITCZ-cold tongue complex over the Mexican warm-pool region (10 deg. N 95 deg. W) of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Major observational platforms deployed during this phase of EPIC2001 included two ships, the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown and the NSF R/V Horizon, and two research aircraft including a NOAA P-3 and the NCAR C-130. This study utilizes new C-band Doppler radar and sounding observations collected aboard the R/V Ronald Brown to describe the 4-D structure of ITCZ convection as a function of the environmental forcing and phase of 3-5 day easterly wave passages. Three distinct easterly wave passages occurred during EPIC2001. Each wave originated in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and after moving over Central America and into the eastern Pacific, were easily identified in time-height profiles of wind and thermodynamic data collected at the position of the R/V Brown. In all cases, the wave trough axes (as defined by changes in the meridional and zonal wind direction and changes in pressure altitude) exhibited relatively weak shear at low to mid-levels and tilted westward with height. The humidity profile in each wave did not exhibit as great a tilt in the vertical as the trough axes. Consistent with previous studies of westward tilting waves over the western Pacific Ocean, peaks in radar diagnosed rainfall tended to lead the passage of the surface wave trough by 0-2 days.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A New Way to Measure Cirrus Ice Water Content by Using Ice Raman Scatter with Raman Lidar

High and cold cirrus clouds mainly contain irregular ice crystals, such as, columns, hexagonal plates, bullet rosettes, and dendrites, and have different impacts on the climate system than low-level clouds, such as stratus, stratocumulus, and cumulus. The radiative effects of cirrus clouds on the current and future climate depend strongly on cirrus cloud microphysical properties including ice water content (IWC) and ice crystal sizes, which are mostly an unknown aspect of cinus clouds. Because of the natural complexity of cirrus clouds and their high locations, it is a challenging task to get them accurately by both remote sensing and in situ sampling. This study presents a new method to remotely sense cirrus microphysical properties by using ice Raman scatter with a Raman lidar. The intensity of Raman scattering is fundamentally proportional to the number of molecules involved. Therefore, ice Raman scattering signal provides a more direct way to measure IWC than other remote sensing methods. Case studies show that this method has the potential to provide essential information of cirrus microphysical properties to study cloud physical processes in cirrus clouds.

Wang, Zhien↗

NASA NTRS2016

Global Linkages Originating from Decadal Oceanic Variability in the Subpolar North Atlantic

The anomalous decadal warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA), and the northward spreading of this warm water, has been linked to rapid Arctic sea ice loss and more frequent cold European winters. Recently, variations in this heat transport have also been reported to covary with global warming slowdown/acceleration periods via a Pacific climate response. We here examine the role of SPNA temperature variability in this Atlantic-Pacific climate connectivity. We find that the evolution of ocean heat content anomalies from the subtropics to the subpolar region, likely due to ocean circulation changes, coincides with a basin-wide Atlantic warming/cooling. This induces an Atlantic-Pacific sea surface temperature seesaw, which in turn, strengthens/weakens the Walker circulation and amplifies the Pacific decadal variability that triggers pronounced global-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. We conclude that the decadal oceanic variability in the SPNA is an essential component of the tropical interactions between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Atlantic variability↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Special Sensor Microwave Imager Wind Dataset: A Source of Quantitative Information for the Ocean-to-Land Advection

It is well recognized that advection from the North Atlantic has a profound effect on the climatic conditions in central Europe. A new dataset of the ocean-surface winds, derived from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager, SSM/1, is now available. This satellite instrument measures the wind speed, but not the direction. However, variational analysis developed at the Data Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, by combining the SSM/I measurements with wind vectors measured from ships, etc., produced global maps of the ocean surface winds suitable for climate analysis. From this SSM/I dataset, a specific index I(sub na) of the North Atlantic surface winds has been developed, which pertinently quantifies the low-level advection into central Europe. For a selected time-period, the index I(sub na) reports the average of the amplitude of the wind, averaging only the speed when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, the contribution counts to the average as zero speed). Strong correlations were found between February I(sub na) and the surface air temperatures in Europe 50-60 deg N. In the present study, we present the correlations between I(sub na) and temperature I(sub s), and also the sensitivity of T(sub s), to an increase in I(sub na), in various seasons and various regions. We specifically analyze the flow of maritime-air from the North Atlantic that produced two extraordinary warm periods: February 1990, and early-winter 2000/2001. The very cold December 2001 was clearly due to a northerly flow. Our conclusion is that the SSM/I dataset is very useful for providing insight to the forcing of climatic fluctuations in Europe.

Otterman, J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Cirrus radiative characteristics and the radiative impact of small particles

An understanding of the way radiation interacts with clouds is vital for understanding the sensitivity of the earth's climate to both natural and anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere. Cirrus clouds are thought to be an important modulator of climate sensitivity. The feedback effect of cirrus on climate can be positive or negative depending upon the microphysics and scattering properties of the cloud. These properties of cirrus clouds are not well understood partly because of their thin tenuous nature and partly because of their microphysical properties. The high altitude and cold temperatures within these clouds along with their transparency greatly increase the difficulty in which accurate measurements can be obtained and interpreted both by aircraft and remote sensing. Therefore, the understanding of the interaction of radiation in cirrus clouds is crucial to determining the ways in which these clouds interact with climate forcings. The sensitivity of the radiative budgets of cirrus cloudiness to their microphysical composition and the environments in which they occur is examined. Especially important is the impact of small particles on the radiative properties of cirrus. Remote sensing estimates of the effective crystal size of cirrus and in situ measurements show large differences up to 100 microns. Thus it becomes important to identify the sources of these differences. For this reason, simulations of actual FIRE cases are compared with the in situ radiative observations and inferences are made concerning the cause of the discrepancies.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Microfossils in the Antarctic cold desert: Possible implications for Mars

In the Ross Desert of Antarctica, the principal life form is the cryptoendolithic microbial community in the near-surface layers of porous sandstone rocks. Biological, geological, and climatic factors interact in a complex and precarious balance, making life possible in an otherwise hostile environment. Once this balance is tipped, fossilization sets in. In the reverse case, new colonization of the rock surface may be initiated. As a result, fossilization is contemporary with modern life and both may be simultaneously present in a mosaic pattern. Also, different stages of fossilization are present. The process of fossilization takes place in a nonaquatic environment. If primitive life ever appeared on Mars, it is possible that with increasing aridity, life withdrew into an endolithic niche similar to that in the Antarctic desert. Fossilization in a nonaquatic environment may have set in with the result that traces of past life could be preserved. If such was the case, the study of the fossilization process in Antarctica may hold useful information for the analysis of Martian samples for microfossils.

Friedmann, E. I.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Carbonate Mineral Formation on Mars: Clues from Stable Isotope Variation Seen in Cryogenic Laboratory Studies of Carbonate Salts

The geologic history of water on the planet Mars is intimately connected to the formation of carbonate minerals through atmospheric CO2 and its control of the climate history of Mars. Carbonate mineral formation under modern martian atmospheric conditions could be a critical factor in controlling the martian climate in a means similar to the rock weathering cycle on Earth. The combination of evidence for liquid water on the martian surface and cold surface conditions suggest fluid freezing could be very common on the surface of Mars. Cryogenic calcite forms readily when a rise in pH occurs as a result of carbon dioxide degassing quickly from freezing Ca-bicarbonate-rich water solutions. This is a process that has been observed in some terrestrial settings such as arctic permafrost cave deposits, lakebeds of the Dry Valleys of Antarctica, and in aufeis (river icings) from rivers of N.E. Alaska. We report here the results of a series of laboratory experiments that were conducted to simulate potential cryogenic carbonate formation on the planet Mars. These results indicate that carbonates grown under martian conditions (controlled atmospheric pressure and temperature) show enrichments from starting bicarbonate fluids in both carbon and oxygen isotopes beyond equilibrium values with average delta13C(DIC-CARB) values of ~20.5%0 which exceed the expected equilibrium fractionation factor of [10(sup 3) ln alpha = ~13%0] at 0 degC. Oxygen isotopes showed a smaller enrichment with delta18O(H2O-CARB) values of ~35.5%0, slightly exceeding the equilibrium fractionation factor of [10(sup 3) ln alpha = ~34%0 ] at 0degC. Large kinetic carbon isotope effects during carbonate precipitation could substantially affect the carbon isotope evolution of CO2 on Mars allowing for more efficient removal of 13C from the Noachian atmosphere enriched by atmospheric loss. This mechanism would be consistent with the observations of large carbon isotope variations in martian materials despite the relative paucity of carbonate minerals in the martian crust.

Socki, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2014

Martian Cryogenic Carbonate Formation: Stable Isotope Variations Observed in Laboratory Studies

The history of water on Mars is tied to the formation of carbonates through atmospheric CO2 and its control of the climate history of the planet. Carbonate mineral formation under modern martian atmospheric conditions could be a critical factor in controlling the martian climate in a means similar to the rock weathering cycle on Earth. The combination of evidence for liquid water on the martian surface and cold surface conditions suggest fluid freezing could be very common on the surface of Mars. Cryogenic calcite forms easily from freezing solutions when carbon dioxide degasses quickly from Ca-bicarbonate-rich water, a process that has been observed in some terrestrial settings such as arctic permafrost cave deposits, lake beds of the Dry Valleys of Antarctica, and in aufeis (river icings) from rivers of N.E. Alaska. A series of laboratory experiments were conducted that simulated cryogenic carbonate formation on Mars in order to understand their isotopic systematics. The results indicate that carbonates grown under martian conditions show variable enrichments from starting bicarbonate fluids in both carbon and oxygen isotopes beyond equilibrium values.

Socki, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

Anyamba, Assaf↗

NASA NTRS1982

Delineation of cold-prone areas using nighttime SMS/GOES thermal data Effects of soils and water

Infrared digital data from geostationary satellites were used to demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed surface temperature data to delineate microscale and mesoscale climates. Nocturnal winter data (December-February) from 1976-77 to 1978-79 over Florida revealed noticeable contrasts in surface temperature patterns. Colder areas were associated with low soil moisture content in the upper layers of excessively drained and well drained sandy soils, whereas warmer areas were associated with bodies of water, wetlands, or poorly drained soils. An unexpected surface temperature pattern for one night where the north-central Florida climatic zone was colder than the north Florida climatic zone was found to be caused by differences in antecedent frontal rainfall. Differences in surface radiant energy fluxes over these two areas at 0200 EST 20 December 1977, based on average satellite-sensed surface temperatures, were compared with differences in soil heat fluxes that were computed from 1.5 m climatological temperatures and soil thermal properties by use of a simplified surface energy balance equation.

Chen, E.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes Over the United States

Extreme climate events are societally harmful and have increased in frequency and intensity in recent decades. Indices based on temperature and precipitation are a valuable way to quantify climate extremes. Certain indices are defined relative to percentiles, which are dependent on a climatological baseline period. In this study, indices computed using temperature and precipitation from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are calculated using percentiles from three baseline periods: 1981–2010, 1991–2020 and 1981–2020. Updating the baseline period from 1981 to 2010 to 1991–2020 leads to significant changes in the quantification of temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States over 1980–2021. Using the later baseline period indicates more cold extremes, fewer warm extremes, and fewer but more intense precipitation extremes throughout the US, with regional variation. Changing the baseline period can mislead the public and decision makers, potentially undermining the appropriate response to climate-related health risks.

Natalie P. Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2004

Observations of the Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor Feedback in UARS MLS and HALOE Data

One of the biggest uncertainties in climate science today concerns the water vapor feedback. Most GCMs hold relative humidity fixed as the climate changes, which provides a strong positive feedback to warming due from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Some in the community, on the other hand, have speculated that tropospheric specific humidity will remain fixed as the climate changes. Observational studies have attempted to resolve this disagreement, but the results have been inconclusive, and few of the studies have focused on the upper troposphere (UT). This is a significant oversight: the surface temperature is especially sensitive to changes in water vapor in the UT owing to the cold temperatures found there. We present an analysis of UARS MLS and HALOE water vapor measurements at 21 5 hPa. We find strong evidence that the water vapor feedback in the UT is positive, but not as strong as fixed relative humidity scenarios. This suggests that GCMs are overestimating the sensitivity of the climate.

Dessler, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Use of Climate Change Projections for Resilience Planning in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In this study we use three different methodologies to document and compare temperature and precipitation projections for the city of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) over the 21st century. It aims to explore in what way the differences and similarities of those methodologies and their outcomes support the incorporation of climate risks in urban planning and improve effective urban climate change governance. We compared the projections for RJ from the Eta Regional Climate Model from the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research nested in two Hadley Center Global Climate Models (GCMs) (Eta-HadCM3 method and Eta-HadGEM2-ES method) and 33 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-model dataset (Urban Climate Change Research Network - UCCRN method). The three methods showed increasing temperatures for RJ at the end of the century. Precipitation projections span a 13% decrease to a 12% increase when using the UCCRN method or are reduced between 0.4 and 0.5%, when using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES method. However, the middle range of the projections from UCCRN and Eta-HadGEM2-ES is similar. The three methods project an increase of warm days and nights and a decrease of cold days and nights. Nevertheless, although the directions of change are the same applying the three methods, the magnitude differs when considering warm and cold nights. Hence, city stakeholders are better informed when we apply different projection methods as it gives them the opportunity to consider the level of risk they are willing to bear in the future. We observed that defining climate change projections on the city scale based on clear communication and an interactive process between scientists and stakeholders can be used to inform citywide adaptation strategies and sector-specific uses, as well as promote urban climate risk governance.

urban governance and management↗

NASA NTRS1992

Glacial geomorphic evidence for a late climatic change on Mars

In a series of preliminary reports, we documented evidence of former glacial epochs on Mars. Apparent glacial landforms seemed to be concentrated primarily at middle to high southern latitudes. We now have additional evidence supporting the view that Martian glaciation appears to have been more extensive than previously recognized. The growth and collapse of ice sheets on Mars seems closely analogous to the growth and decline of Earth's great Pleistocene ice sheets. This implies that climate change was probably somewhat comparable on the two planets, although in the case of Mars the entire planet seems to have changed rapidly to a cold, dry present-day environment after the collapse of the ice sheets.

Kargel, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Water on Mars: Inventory, distribution, and possible sources of polar ice

Theoretical considerations and various lines of morphologic evidence suggest that, in addition to the normal seasonal and climatic exchange of H2O that occurs between the Martian polar caps, atmosphere, and mid to high latitude regolith, large volumes of water have been introduced into the planet's long term hydrologic cycle by the sublimation of equatorial ground ice, impacts, catastrophic flooding, and volcanism. Under the climatic conditions that are thought to have prevailed on Mars throughout the past 3 to 4 b.y., much of this water is expected to have been cold trapped at the poles. The amount of polar ice contributed by each of the planet's potential crustal sources is discussed and estimated. The final analysis suggests that only 5 to 15 pct. of this potential inventory is now in residence at the poles.

Clifford, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Changes in the Areal Extent of Arctic Sea Ice: Observations from Satellites

Wintertime sea ice covers 15 million square kilometers of the north polar region, an area exceeding one and a half times the area of the U. S. Even at the end of the summer melt season, sea ice still covers 7 million square kilometers. This vast ice cover is an integral component of the climate system, being moved around by winds and waves, restricting heat and other exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere, reflecting most of the solar radiation incident on it, transporting cold, relatively fresh water equatorward, and affecting the overturning of ocean waters underneath, with impacts that can be felt worldwide. Sea ice also is a major factor in the Arctic ecosystem, affecting life forms ranging from minute organisms living within the ice, sometimes to the tune of millions in a single ice floe, to large marine mammals like walruses that rely on sea ice as a platform for resting, foraging, social interaction, and breeding. Since 1978, satellite technology has allowed the monitoring of the vast Arctic sea ice cover on a routine basis. The satellite observations reveal that, overall, the areal extent of Arctic sea ice has been decreasing since 1978, at an average rate of 2.7% per decade through the end of 1998. Through 1998, the greatest rates of decrease occurred in the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan and the Kara and Barents Seas, with most other regions of the Arctic also experiencing ice extent decreases. The two regions experiencing ice extent increases over this time period were the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Furthermore, the satellite data reveal that the sea ice season shortened by over 25 days per decade in the central Sea of Okhotsk and the eastern Barents Sea, and by lesser amounts throughout much of the rest of the Arctic seasonal sea ice region, although not in the Bering Sea or the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Concern has been raised that if the trends toward shortened sea ice seasons and lesser sea ice coverage continue, this could entail major consequences to the polar climate and to the lifestyles (and perhaps even the survivability) of polar bears and other polar species.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗