Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “cloud parameterizations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Formulation of autoconversion and drop spectra shape in shallow cumulus clouds

Two-moment autoconversion parameterizations as compared to accretion parameterizations exhibit significant errors suggesting that additional moments are needed to increase their accuracy. We develop a three-moment autoconversion parameterization using output from an LES model with size-resolved microphysics. Adding the third moment decreases the errors of parameterization and improves precipitation prediction. However, the errors are still significantly larger than errors of accretion rate. An analysis of the cloud drop size distributions (DSDs) in the simulated tropical convective cloud system reveals that most of DSDs have a significant fraction of cloud liquid water content (qc) in the mid-size droplet range (radii from 20 to 40 microns). Our data indicates that more than 30% of DSDs have over half of qc contained in the mid-size range and about 60% of spectra have, at least, one third of qc in this range. Even when the rain/drizzle mode is small (radar reflectivity Z < -10 dBZ), there is a significant number of spectra in which fraction of qc in the mid-size range is as large as 60%. These DSDs are more complex than the frequently used single-mode Gamma or Log-normal distributions, which usually do not have a considerable tail extending to the mid-size range and can be defined by three microphysical moments. The need to define DSDs by more than three moments explains the large errors in the three-moment autoconversion parameterization. The limitation of three-parameter Gamma or Log-normal distributions should be kept in mind when applying them in precipitating shallow Cu clouds.

Kogan, Yefim↗
DOE OSTI2019

Major improvements on the longwave radiative interactions between surface and clouds in the polar regions in atmospheric global circulation model

Motivations: One of the most important tasks in the study of physical and socioeconomic aspects of climate change is the simulation of polar climate and how it changes in response to global warming. One import component of the polar energy budget (and thus of polar climate) is the radiative interaction between surface and clouds. As of today, the vast majority of state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs), including all three US flagship GCMs (NCAR CESM, GFDL CM3, and GISS E2-H/E2-R), still assume constant surface emissivity overall spectral bands in their longwave radiation treatment. Similarly, a majority of state-of-the-art GCMs assume non-scattering clouds in the longwave spectrum, including both the NCAR CESM and GFDL CM3. The issues of ignoring spectral variation in surface emissivity and scattering by clouds manifest themselves in the far-infrared (IR) over the polar continents because (1) there is so little water vapor in such areas that surface far-IR emission can reach clouds; and (2) the imaginary part of the refractive index of ice has a local minimum over 350-550 cm-1, which implies possible strong scattering effects over this spectral region both within and between the snow surface and ice clouds. Our sensitivity studies using CloudSat-retrieved hydrometeor profiles over the high-elevation Antarctic continent show that, in winter, an appropriate inclusion of snow surface spectral emissivity and ice cloud scattering in radiative transfer calculations can noticeably reduce the monthly-mean surface net downward far-IR flux and net atmospheric far-IR emission over the entire region. For the far-IR alone, the magnitude of these effects is ~1Wm-2 or even larger. Projection Objectives: We propose to carry out the following studies: (1) Develop or update schemes that can be used in the CESM to compute the optical properties of the snow surface and ice clouds consistently across the longwave and the shortwave spectrum; (2) Modify the longwave radiation scheme in the CESM such that it can incorporate surface spectral emissivity and scattering of clouds; (3) Validate schemes developed for (1) and (2) against measurements or benchmark models; (4) Evaluate the effects of these new treatments on the simulated polar energy budget and climate by the CESM. Technical Approaches:1.Use a detailed snowpack radiative transfer model to simulate spectrally resolved emissivity of snow surfaces as a function of snow effective radius. The model will be validated against available high spectral-resolution measurements of snow spectral emissivity (ASTER spectra library v2.0). Currently the CESM prognoses vertically-resolved snow effective radius, and snow shortwave albedo is parameterized based on snow effective radius. Our treatment of snow spectral emissivity here will be consistent with the treatment of snow albedo in the shortwave and seamlessly connected with the snow physical module in the CESM. 2. Update the parameterization of ice cloud optical properties in the CESM, for both longwave and shortwave, based on the latest ice-cloud scattering database developed by co-I Prof. Yang. 3. Modify RRTMG_LW, the current longwave radiation scheme in the CESM, to include the surface spectral emissivity and the scattering of clouds in the longwave calculation. Validate modified scheme against a line-by-line radiative transfer model with multiple scattering capability (LBLRTM/CHARTS). 4. Implement products from Steps 1-3 into the CESM and conduct simulations to evaluate their effects on the simulated polar climate and energy budget. These runs will be compared to control runs and evaluated using routine model-observation diagnostics, including data from the ARM NSA (North Slope of Alaska) site. Moreover, a novel aspect in this step is that we will evaluate the simulated longwave band-by-band fluxes and cloud radiative effect against observational counterparts over both polar continents, using a product recently derived by the lead PI Prof. Huang from collocated AIRS and CERES satellite observations from 2002 to 2013. Benefits and outcomes: This project will significantly improve the longwave radiation scheme in the CESM and its successors and provide more realistic treatment of radiative interactions between polar surfaces and clouds. In the future, it will also be straightforward to extend this framework to include spectral emissivity of all surface types. This is responsive to identified DoE Earth System Modeling Science Drivers to improve the performance of the fully coupled climate system modeling and to help address questions on how rapid changes in cryospheric systems interact with the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final Technical Report of ASR project entitled “ARM Observations for the Development and Evaluation of Models and Parameterizations of Cloudy Boundary Layers” (DE-SC0000825)

This project aims to elucidate the processes governing boundary layer clouds and improve the treatment of cloud processes in Global Climate Models (GCMs). Specifically, we have made research effort in following areas: (1) Developing novel numerical approach of using multiple scale Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model simulations for boundary layer cloud research; (2) Addressing issues of PDF schemes for parameterizing sub-grid scale cloud radiative properties; (3) Investigating the impact of mesoscale cloud organizations on the evolution of boundary layer clouds; (4) Evaluating parameterizations of the cumulus induced vertical transport; (5) Limited area model (LAM) intercomparison study of TWP-ICE convective case; (6) Investigating convective invigoration processes at shallow cumulus cold poll boundaries; and (7) Investigating vertical transport processes in moist convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diabatic Eddy Forcing Increases Persistence and Opposes Propagation of the Southern Annular Mode in MERRA-2

Abstract As a dominant mode of jet variability on subseasonal time scales, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) provides a window into how the atmosphere can produce internal oscillations on longer-than-synoptic time scales. While SAM’s existence can be explained by dry, purely barotropic theories, the time scale for its persistence and propagation is set by a lagged interaction between barotropic and baroclinic mechanisms, making the exact physical mechanisms challenging to identify and to simulate, even in latest generation models. By partitioning the eddy momentum flux convergence in MERRA-2 using an eddy–mean flow interaction framework, we demonstrate that diabatic processes (condensation and radiative heating) are the main contributors to SAM’s persistence in its stationary regime, as well as the key for preventing propagation in this regime. In SAM’s propagating regime, baroclinic and diabatic feedbacks also dominate the eddy–jet feedback. However, propagation is initiated by barotropic shifts in upper-level wave breaking and then sustained by a baroclinic response, leading to a roughly 60-day oscillation period. This barotropic propagation mechanism has been identified in dry, idealized models, but here we show evidence of this mechanism for the first time in reanalysis. The diabatic feedbacks on SAM are consistent with modulation of the storm-track latitude by SAM, altering the emission temperature and cloud cover over individual waves. Therefore, future attempts to improve the SAM time scale in models should focus on the storm-track location, as well as the roles of the cloud and moisture parameterizations. Significance Statement As they circumnavigate the planet, the tropospheric jet streams slowly drift north and south over about 30 days, longer than the normal limit of weather prediction. Understanding the source of this “memory” could improve our knowledge of how the atmosphere organizes itself and our ability to make long-term forecasts. Current theories have identified several possible internal atmospheric interactions responsible for this memory. Yet most of the theories for understanding the jets’ behavior assume that this behavior is only weakly influenced by atmospheric water vapor. We show that this assumption is not enough to understand jet persistence. Instead, clouds and precipitation are more important contributors in reanalysis data than internal “dry” mechanisms to this memory of the Southern Hemisphere jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Structural changes and variability of the ITCZ induced by radiation–cloud–convection–circulation interactions: inferences from the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (GMMF) experiments

In this paper, we have investigated the impact of radiation–cloud–convection–circulation interaction (RC3I) on structural changes and variability of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) using the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, where cloud processes are super-parameterized, i.e., explicitly resolved with 2-D cloud resolving models embedded in each coarse grid of the host Goddard Earth Observing System-Version 5 global climate model. Experiments have been conducted under prescribed sea surface temperature conditions for 10 years (2007–2016), with and without cloud radiation feedback in the atmosphere, respectively. Diagnostic analyses separately for January and July show that RC3I leads to an enhanced and expanded Hadley Circulation characterized by (1) a quasi-uniform warming and moistening of the tropical atmosphere and a sharpening of the ITCZ with enhanced deep convection, more intense precipitation and higher clouds, (2) extended drying of the tropical marginal convective zones, and extratropical mid- to lower troposphere, and (3) a cooling of the polar regions, with increased baroclinicity and midlatitude storm track activities. Computations based on the zonal mean thermodynamic energy balance equation show that the radiative warming and cooling are strongly balanced by local adiabatic processes associated with changes in large-scale vertical motions, as well as horizontal atmospheric heat transport. In the tropics, enhanced short-wave absorption and longwave water vapor greenhouse effects by high clouds play key roles in providing strong positive feedback to the tropospheric warming. In the extratropics, increased atmospheric heat transport associated with changes in the Hadley circulation is balanced by strong longwave cooling above, and warming below due to increased high clouds. We also find a strong positive correlation between daily and pentad heavy rain in the ITCZ core, and expansion of the drier zones coupled to a contraction of the highly convective zones in the ITCZ, indicating a strong tendency RC3I-induced convective aggregation in tropical clouds i.e., wet-regions-get-wetter and contracted, and dry-areas-get-drier and expanded.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Micro-spectroscopic and freezing characterization of ice-nucleating particles collected in the marine boundary layer in the eastern North Atlantic

Abstract. Formation of atmospheric ice plays a crucial role in the microphysical evolution of mixed-phase and cirrus clouds and thus climate. How aerosol particles impact ice crystal formation by acting as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) is a subject of intense research activities. To improve understanding of atmospheric INPs, we examined daytime and nighttime particles collected during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign conducted in summer 2017. Collected particles, representative of a remote marine environment, were investigated for their propensity to serve as INPs in the immersion freezing (IMF) and deposition ice nucleation (DIN) modes. The particle population was characterized by chemical imaging techniques such as computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray analysis (CCSEM/EDX) and scanning transmission X-ray microscopy with near-edge X-ray absorption fine-structure spectroscopy (STXM/NEXAFS). Four major particle-type classes were identified where internally mixed inorganic–organic particles make up the majority of the analyzed particles. Following ice nucleation experiments, individual INPs were identified and characterized by SEM/EDX. The identified INP types belong to the major particle-type classes consisting of fresh sea salt with organics or processed sea salt containing dust and sulfur with organics. Ice nucleation experiments show IMF events at temperatures as low as 231 K, including the subsaturated regime. DIN events were observed at lower temperatures of 210 to 231 K. IMF and DIN observations were analyzed with regard to activated INP fraction, ice-nucleation active site (INAS) densities, and a water activity-based immersion freezing model (ABIFM) yielding heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficients. Observed IMF and DIN events of ice formation and corresponding derived freezing rates demonstrate that the marine boundary layer aerosol particles can serve as INPs under typical mixed-phase and cirrus cloud conditions. The derived IMF and DIN parameterizations allow for implementation in cloud and climate models to evaluate predictive effects of atmospheric ice crystal formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

An Improved Convective Ice Parameterization for the NASA GISS Global Climate Model and Impacts on Cloud Ice Simulation

Partitioning of convective ice into precipitating and detrained condensate presents a challenge for GCMs since partitioning depends on the strength and microphysics of the convective updraft. It is an important issue because detrainment of ice from updrafts influences the development of stratiform anvils, impacts radiation, and can affect GCM climate sensitivity. Recent studies have shown that the CMIP5 configurations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM simulated upper-tropospheric ice water content (IWC) that exceeded an estimated upper bound by a factor of 2. Partly in response to this bias, a new GCM parameterization of convective cloud ice has been developed that incorporates new ice particle fall speeds and convective outflow particle size distributions (PSDs) from the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), NASA Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4), DOE ARM–NASA Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), and DOE ARM Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) field campaigns. The new parameterization assumes a normalized gamma PSD with two novel developments: no explicit assumption for particle habit in the calculation of mass distributions, and a formulation for translating ice particle fall speeds as a function of maximum diameter into fall speeds as a function of melted-equivalent diameter. Two parameters (particle volume– and projected area–weighted equivalent diameter) are diagnosed as a function of temperature and IWC in the convective plume, and these parameters constrain the shape and scale of the normalized gamma PSD. The diagnosed fall speeds and PSDs are combined with the GCM’s parameterized convective updraft vertical velocity to partition convective updraft condensate into precipitating and detrained components. A 5-yr prescribed sea surface temperature GCM simulation shows a 30%–50% decrease in upper-tropospheric deep convective IWC, bringing the tropical and global mean ice water path into closer agreement with CloudSat best estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models

Cloud feedback—the change in top-of-atmosphere radiative flux resulting from the cloud response to warming—constitutes by far the largest source of uncertainty in the climate response to CO 2 forcing simulated by global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we review the main mechanisms for cloud feedbacks, and discuss their representation in climate models and the sources of intermodel spread. Global-mean cloud feedback in GCMs results from three main effects: (1) rising free-tropospheric clouds (a positive longwave effect); (2) decreasing tropical low cloud amount (a positive shortwave [SW] effect); (3) increasing high-latitude low cloud optical depth (a negative SW effect). These cloud responses simulated by GCMs are qualitatively supported by theory, high-resolution modeling, and observations. Rising high clouds are consistent with the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis, whereby enhanced upper-tropospheric radiative cooling causes anvil cloud tops to remain at a nearly fixed temperature as the atmosphere warms. Tropical low cloud amount decreases are driven by a delicate balance between the effects of vertical turbulent fluxes, radiative cooling, large-scale subsidence, and lower-tropospheric stability on the boundary-layer moisture budget. High-latitude low cloud optical depth increases are dominated by phase changes in mixed-phase clouds. Finally, the causes of intermodel spread in cloud feedback are discussed, focusing particularly on the role of unresolved parameterized processes such as cloud microphysics, turbulence, and convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗
DOE OSTI2015

Comments on “A Unified Representation of Deep Moist Convection in Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere. Part I”

Arakawa and Wu (2013, hereafter referred to as AW13) recently developed a formal approach to a unified parameterization of atmospheric convection for high-resolution numerical models. The work is based on ideas formulated by Arakawa et al. (2011). It lays the foundation for a new parameterization pathway in the era of high-resolution numerical modeling of the atmosphere. The key parameter in this approach is convective cloud fraction. In conventional parameterization, it is assumed that <<1. This assumption is no longer valid when horizontal resolution of numerical models approaches a few to a few tens kilometers, since in such situations convective cloud fraction can be comparable to unity. Therefore, they argue that the conventional approach to parameterizing convective transport must include a factor 1 - in order to unify the parameterization for the full range of model resolutions so that it is scale-aware and valid for large convective cloud fractions. While AW13’s approach provides important guidance for future convective parameterization development, in this note we intend to show that the conventional approach already has this scale awareness factor 1 - built in, although not recognized for the last forty years. Therefore, it should work well even in situations of large convective cloud fractions in high-resolution numerical models.

atmospheric↗
DOE OSTI2015

Evaluation of high‐level clouds in cloud resolving model simulations with ARM and KWAJEX observations

Abstract In this study, we evaluate high‐level clouds in a cloud resolving model during two convective cases, ARM9707 and KWAJEX. The simulated joint histograms of cloud occurrence and radar reflectivity compare well with cloud radar and satellite observations when using a two‐moment microphysics scheme. However, simulations performed with a single moment microphysical scheme exhibit low biases of approximately 20 dB. During convective events, two‐moment microphysical overestimate the amount of high‐level cloud and one‐moment microphysics precipitate too readily and underestimate the amount and height of high‐level cloud. For ARM9707, persistent large positive biases in high‐level cloud are found, which are not sensitive to changes in ice particle fall velocity and ice nuclei number concentration in the two‐moment microphysics. These biases are caused by biases in large‐scale forcing and maintained by the periodic lateral boundary conditions. The combined effects include significant biases in high‐level cloud amount, radiation, and high sensitivity of cloud amount to nudging time scale in both convective cases. The high sensitivity of high‐level cloud amount to the thermodynamic nudging time scale suggests that thermodynamic nudging can be a powerful “tuning” parameter for the simulated cloud and radiation but should be applied with caution. The role of the periodic lateral boundary conditions in reinforcing the biases in cloud and radiation suggests that reducing the uncertainty in the large‐scale forcing in high levels is important for similar convective cases and has far reaching implications for simulating high‐level clouds in super‐parameterized global climate models such as the multiscale modeling framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Region and cloud regime dependence of parametric sensitivity in E3SM atmosphere model

Abstract The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), including its atmosphere model (EAM), has many relatively new features. In a previous study we conducted a systematic parametric sensitivity analysis for EAM based on short, perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations, mainly focusing on global mean climate features and metrics. While parameter values in global climate models are generally invariant in space and time, model response to parameters perturbation may vary by regions and climate regimes, which motivates the need to better understand the EAM model behaviors and physics at regional scale and process level. In this study, using the same set of PPE simulations and a similar sensitivity analysis framework, we identify parameters that cause largest sensitivities over different regions and compare model responses in fast atmospheric processes to the parameters across different cloud regimes for several important cloud-related fidelity metrics. We find that cloud forcing has opposite response to some parameters over mid-latitude vs. tropical land. We also analyze how the parametric sensitivity varies as stratocumulus transitions to shallow convection and to deep convection over ocean. Low cloud forcing and shortwave cloud forcing in the subtropical eastern Pacific are most sensitive to the parameters controlling the width of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity ( w’ ) ( gamma ) and the damping of the w’ skewness ( c8 ) near the coast but become more sensitive to the parameter affecting the damping of the w’ variance ( c1 ) further offshore. Detailed interpretation of the spatial dependence of parametric sensitivity is provided. We also investigate how the parametric sensitivity evolves with prediction duration. This study improves our process-level understanding of cloud physics and parameterization and provides insights for developing more advanced regime-aware parameterization schemes in global climate model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Tropical Convection Characteristics in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 2

Accurate simulation of subseasonal tropical moist convection remains a key challenge for Earth system models. The difficulties stem from the reliance of cumulus cloud processes on model parameterizations and the need to represent the multiscale nature of interactions among clouds, radiation, moisture, circulation, and surface energy fluxes. Equatorial convection drives circulation anomalies that can affect weather patterns and extremes globally, motivating efforts to better understand and simulate these tropical disturbances. Here, a detailed review of subseasonal tropical convective behavior as simulated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) is presented, with comparison to its predecessor version 1 (E3SMv1) and reference data sets. Model structural changes to the deep convective trigger function and surface fluxes, along with parametric tuning of the cloud and microphysics schemes, together result in an improved depiction of organized tropical convection across scales. In particular, E3SMv2 exhibits a more realistic Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and low‐frequency Kelvin waves—owing to a sharper time mean equatorial meridional moisture gradient and improved convection‐circulation coupling —as well as a better depiction of MJO Northern Hemisphere teleconnections. Despite these improvements, subseasonal precipitation variance continues to be strongly underestimated in E3SMv2. Use of a cloud plume model also reveals that the coupling between daily averaged tropical precipitation and lower tropospheric instability in E3SM is inconsistent with observations, a bias that could potentially impact the simulation of intraseasonal disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Project Title: Adaptive Vertical Grid Enhancement for E3SM (Final Technical Report)

During the first phase of the project (2018/05-2021/05), we proved the hypothesis that, without tuning, high vertical resolution improves the representation of unresolved, parameterized low altitude clouds such as stratocumulus clouds in global climate models. We evaluated the effectiveness of the newly developed computational framework, Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (FIVE) by implementing it into E3SM. FIVE aims to improve representation of the target cloud, low level cloud for this project, with use of a locally high vertical resolution for computation of selected processes. FIVE was assessed via direct comparison among E3SM, E3SM-FIVE, and satellite data as well as a newly developed ensemble artificial neural network methodology. We demonstrated that E3SM-FIVE remarkably improves marine stratocumulus representation. To advance the FIVE methodology, we took a first step toward the adaptive vertical grid in the FIVE method by modifying the E3SM single column model. For future application of FIVE to the global storm resolving model with a few km horizontal grid resolution, we developed the vertical-meridional two-dimensional (2D) Hadley circulation model, which allows one to run simulations with much higher vertical resolution and significantly longer duration than current three-dimensional global storm resolving model. During the second phase of the project (2021/05-2023/11; period for this technical report), we sought a way to appropriately transform FIVE to a regionalized version of FIVE, which allows one to select locations with/without FIVE. In parallel, we demonstrated that E3SM-FIVE with a 25-km mesh significantly reduced the bias associated with coastal stratocumulus. Furthermore, we showed that the same improvement was able to be obtained with the use of both the Regional Refined Model (RRM) targeted to one of the stratocumulus regions with 25-km resolution and FIVE. We explored a new implementation strategy of FIVE with our 2D Hadley circulation model. In parallel we applied the 2D Hadley circulation model to study the double intertropical convergence zone bias with storm resolving model resolution and aerosol-cloud interactions within the Hadley circulation with near large eddy simulation resolution. Last, we have been investigating Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds with large eddy simulations in order to improve their representation in global models. During the course of the entire project, 6 journal articles were published, and 3 manuscripts are currently in preparation. We gave a total of 30 presentations at various domestic and international conferences. In addition we gave 6 seminar talks at universities and a national laboratory. E3SM- FIVE is available as a branch of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Cloud and Precipitation Properties on Temporal and Spatial Scales Using LASSO Simulations over ENA

Low clouds and precipitation representation remain a major source of uncertainty in Earth System Models (ESMs), particularly due to challenges in representing their sub-grid variability and scale-dependent sampling. This study evaluates the performance of preliminary simulations from the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project over the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), cloud fraction (CF), and surface precipitation simulated across closed-cell, open-cell, and transitional cloud regimes. Using LES (100 m horizontal grid spacing) driven by ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses, we assess the representativeness of ground-based point observations by analyzing their correspondence to model-resolved spatial and temporal means. Results suggest that observational sampling of at least 6 hours is required to achieve consistency with domain-scale averages, in particular for observations that exhibit pronounced sub-grid heterogeneity, such as precipitation. ERA5-forced simulations exhibit improved spatial coherence and agreement with domain-averaged quantities when compared to MERRA-2 runs, with performance discrepancies largest for convective cloud conditions due to differences in forcing fidelity and temporal resolution. These findings highlight the importance of regime-aware model evaluation strategies and potentially demonstrate how LES can inform observation-model comparison practices and the development of cloud and precipitation parameterizations in ESMs.

Liang, Jiakun [University of Hawai'i at Manoa] (OR↗
DOE OSTI2015

Evaluation of Subgrid-scale Hydrometeor Transport Schemes using a High-resolution Cloud-resolving Model

Potential ways of parameterizing vertical turbulent fluxes of hydrometeors are examined using a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The cloud-resolving model uses the Morrison microphysics scheme, which contains prognostic variables for rain, graupel, ice, and snow. A benchmark simulation with a horizontal grid spacing of 250 m of a deep convection case carried out to evaluate three different ways of parameterizing the turbulent vertical fluxes of hydrometeors: an eddy-diffusion approximation, a quadrant-based decomposition, and a scaling method that accounts for within-quadrant (subplume) correlations. Results show that the down-gradient nature of the eddy-diffusion approximation tends to transport mass away from concentrated regions, whereas the benchmark simulation indicates that the vertical transport tends to transport mass from below the level of maximum to aloft. Unlike the eddy-diffusion approach, the quadri-modal decomposition is able to capture the signs of the flux gradient but underestimates the magnitudes. The scaling approach is shown to perform the best by accounting for within-quadrant correlations, and improves the results for all hydrometeors except for snow. A sensitivity study is performed to examine how vertical transport may affect the microphysics of the hydrometeors. The vertical transport of each hydrometeor type is artificially suppressed in each test. Results from the sensitivity tests show that cloud-droplet-related processes are most sensitive to suppressed rain or graupel transport. In particular, suppressing rain or graupel transport has a strong impact on the production of snow and ice aloft. Lastly, a viable subgrid-scale hydrometeor transport scheme in an assumed probability density function parameterization is discussed.

cloud-resolving model↗
DOE OSTI2018

Analysis of Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations for Scale Dependence of Convective Momentum Transport

Abstract We use 3D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of two mesoscale convective systems at midlatitudes and a simple statistical ensemble method to diagnose the scale dependency of convective momentum transport (CMT) and CMT-related properties and evaluate a parameterization scheme for the convection-induced pressure gradient (CIPG) developed by Gregory et al. Gregory et al. relate CIPG to a constant coefficient multiplied by mass flux and vertical mean wind shear. CRM results show that mass fluxes and CMT exhibit strong scale dependency in temporal evolution and vertical structure. The upgradient–downgradient CMT characteristics for updrafts are generally similar between small and large grid spacings, which is consistent with previous understanding, but they can be different for downdrafts across wide-ranging grid spacings. For the small to medium grid spacings (4–64 km), Gregory et al. reproduce some aspects of CIPG scale dependency except for underestimating the variations of CIPG as grid spacing decreases. However, for large grid spacings (128–512 km), Gregory et al. might even less adequately parameterize CIPG because it omits the contribution from either the nonlinear-shear or the buoyancy forcings. Further diagnosis of CRM results suggests that inclusion of nonlinear-shear forcing in Gregory et al. is needed for the large grid spacings. For the small to median grid spacings, a modified Gregory et al. with the three-updraft approach help better capture the variations of CIPG as grid spacing decreases compared to the single updraft approach. Further, the optimal coefficients used in Gregory et al. seem insensitive to grid spacings, but they might be different for updrafts and downdrafts, for different MCS types, and for zonal and meridional components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

Executive Summary NOAA is making major contributions to the solar forecasting project in three areas. First, it is improving its forecasts of solar irradiance, clouds, and aerosols in its numerical weather prediction models. Second, it is providing advanced satellite products for DOE's FOA awardees to use in their forecast systems. Third, it is using high-quality ground-based measurements from SURFRAD and ISIS stations to verify and validate forecast model output. This reports covers results from all three areas for the period May 1, 2014 - April 30, 2015. Modeling In its modeling effort, NOAA continues work to improve the skill of solar forecasts from the Earth System Research Lab (ESRL) research versions of the 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and the 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) models, which are in turn transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). A major milestone was achieved in September 2014 with the initial operational implementation of the HRRR at NCEP. In the ESRL research versions of the models, testing and development, in both real-time runs and retrospective experiments, is guided by an extensive in-house verification system. Early in the SFIP project, we developed the capability to verify our model forecasts against the high-quality surface radiation measurements from the SURFRAD and ISIS networks. This highlighted some shortcomings with the RAP and HRRR forecasts of incoming shortwave radiation. Most of our effort during Phase 1 of SFIP was focused on addressing these problems with a variety of model system improvements. The RAP and HRRR models during the warm season of 2014 had a noticeable warm and dry bias in near-surface conditions over most of the central and eastern United States, and our new SURFRAD/ISIS verification revealed that there was also a large excess of incoming global horizontal irradiance in the models. We hypothesized that a lack of cloud cover (particularly low-level cloud cover) in the models was resulting in too much heating of the land surface. This, in turn, caused unrealistically strong surface heat fluxes and turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which further reduced the already deficient cloud cover. We addressed these issues with a combination of data assimilation system modifications and model physics improvements. Many of our data assimilation changes were made with a view towards improving the near-term representation of clouds and precipitation. One of these changes involved better accounting for regions of weak reflectivity in the RAP cloud / hydrometeor assimilation system, in order to improve the representation of light precipitation in the RAP initial conditions and provide more realistic initial cloud cover. Additional modifications more accurately accounted for radar beam blockage and data gaps (particularly in the western United States), which improves shorter lead times forecasts of clouds and precipitation. We have also tested the assimilation of new data sources within the RAP and the HRRR, including radar radial velocity data and surface mesonet observations. Within the HRRR, we have tested the cycling of the 3-km land surface fields to allow a higher-resolution treatment of land surface processes. In terms of model physics development for SFIP, we have implemented a shallow cumulus scheme within the RAP, and have made numerous improvements to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme to address insufficient low-level cloud cover in the models. We have conducted tests incorporating the radiation effects of (parameterized) boundary-layer clouds within the modified MYNN PBL scheme (independent of the convective schemes). The Grell-Freitas-Olson shallow cumulus scheme has also been tested within the 3-km HRRR. Finally, we have also modified the RUC land surface model (LSM) treatment of the vegetation wilting point, reducing it to increase evapotranspiration and increase cloud cover in the boundary layer. All of these changes work in tandem to significantly improve the model forecasts of cloud cover, incoming shortwave radiation, and near-surface temperature and moisture. Satellite The role of NOAA/NESDIS in the Solar Forecasting Improvement Project is to provide Advanced Satellite Products (ASPs) for the two forecasting teams at NCAR and IBM. The ASPs are cloud, surface, and atmosphere products derived from geostationary satellite imagery at the highest possible spatial and temporal resolution - such quantities as cloud mask, cloud probability, cloud transmission, cloud top height, cloud top temperature, cloud effective particle size, etc. Ancillary data, such as elevation and numerical weather prediction fields are provided in the files at the same resolution as well. There are at this time 147 different variables in the ASP output, including quality flags and processing information. The main goals for Year 1 of the project were to implement an Advanced Satellite Products system for the use of the IBM and NCAR teams, begin validation, and make any needed changes based on feedback from the teams. ASP files are being produced every GOES Imager acquisition, which occur on a 15-30 minute schedule. Processing is done on a dedicated computer, with a turn-around time of 8-21 minutes from image acquisition to results available on ftp. Several helpful visualizations of the data are also created for users on web pages. Users have been provided with a document titled "User's Guide for 1km Cloud Products Derived from GOES Imager Data using CLAVR-x", which discusses the basics of the source imagery, the process by which it is turned into Advanced Satellite Products, and considerations users should make when using the data. Validation of selected variables from the older 4km version of the products was also included. Future work will concentrate on validation of the 1km products and improving the turn-around time, product variety, and product quality as needed. Ground Observations In the ground-based measurement effort, NOAA's main objectives are to provide high quality radiation products for validation and verification of short-term to day-ahead solar forecasts. More specifically for the three year project, our goals include (1) Maintaining and providing data from our 7 SURFRAD and 7 ISIS; (2) Update ISIS radiation measurements from 3 min to 1 min data: (3) Purchase and install new pyrheliometers for direct solar irradiance measurements at the 7 SURFRAD sites; (4) Building, testing, and deploying two mobile SURFRAD stations at two utility plants in collaboration with DOE sponsored partners, and includes ongoing maintenance and processing of the data at the mobile sites; (5) Upgrading the data acquisition and communications at 7 SURFRAD sites and 7 ISIS sites; (6) Providing radiation data at the 7 SURFRAD sites in near real-time; (7) Develop and provide aerosol optical depth and cloud images and cloud fraction at our two mobile sites; (8) Provide data recovery rates each year; (9) Provide temporally and spatially averaged radiation products for comparison to HRRR and RAP solar forecasts and advanced satellite products; (10) Provide a data-set for analysis of conversion of direct and diffuse to sloped surfaces; (11) and as time permits develop and provide spectral solar irradiance, cloud optical depth and spectral albedo from the mobile sites. Milestones this year include working with the DOE sponsored teams to find locations to deploy two mobile SURFRAD stations. One existing unit was deployed at a 30MW PV facility in the San Luis Valley in collaboration with Xcel and the NCAR team in August, 2014. The second unit was built and tested at our facilities in Boulder, CO and deployed near Green Mountain Power's Education Center in Rutland, VT in collaboration with Green Mountain Power and the IBM Team in October, 2014. Data processing was implemented and the radiation data from these two mobile sites have been made available on our ftp server in near real-time. We also are providing images and cloud fraction from the TSI cameras for these two mobile sites on our ftp site. Another milestone was upgrading our data acquisition and communication systems at 7 SURFRAD and 7 ISIS sites. We accelerated our schedule for these upgrades to provide timely radiation products. These upgrades allow more reliable and near-real time radiation data delivery to the DOE sponsored teams to meet their goals. Lastly, we changed the data rate at the ISIS sites from 3 min to 1 min.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗