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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

From Machine Learning to Machine Reasoning: A Model-based Approach to Analyze Equipment Reliability Data

In current nuclear power plants (NPPs) a large amount of condition-based data which can be used to assess and monitor component health and performance. Assessing component health from such data can be performed with a large variety of methods. While the analysis of numeric data can be performed with several methods, the extraction of information from textual data remains a challenge. Currently employed natural language processing (NLP) methods do not really provide quantitative information that might be contained in IRs. In addition, the integration of numeric and textual data to identify possible causal relationships between data elements is still an unresolved challenge. This paper presents an approach to extract information from textual (e.g., incident or maintenance reports) and numeric data that relies on model based system engineer (MBSE) models. MBSE are diagrams designed to represent system and component dependencies (from both a form and functional point of view). In our approach, MBSE models emulate system engineer knowledge about component/system architecture. NLP methods are employed to perform syntactic and semantic analyses. Syntactic analysis analyzes the grammatical structure of a sentence while semantic analysis is designed to analyze the logic structure of a sentence. An innovative element of our approach is that semantic analysis uses MBSE models to identify links between textual elements. Similarly, numeric data is directly linked to elements of the MBSE models in order to map which functions are being monitored.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1991

Electric field measurements during supercharging events on the MAIMIK rocket experiment

Data are presented on the evolution of electric field structures near the MAIMIK mother-daughter tethered rocket during active electron emissions from the rocket, which consisted of two separately instrumented payload sections which were detached in-flight. The results of the E field data analysis show that the temporal behavior of the fields was consistent with ion responses to the rapid charging of the active payload. A qualitative model of the interaction between the active payload and the ambient plasma background is developed to explain the electric field data, including the apparent causal relationship between the radial and tangential impulse components.

Denig, W. F.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of Causal Relationships of the Cross‐Scale Wave Coupling Through Information Theoretical Approach

On 2015 October 2, MMS spacecraft observed an electron micro-injection event near the southern hemispheric high-altitude cusp, coinciding with intense wave activity across several frequency bands. Here, we investigated the MMS magnetic field and plasma during this event to explore cross-scale coupling among the wave modes. Employing the Hilbert-Huang transform, we perform an empirical mode decomposition to extract frequencies and amplitudes of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). In this analysis, we establish both linear and nonlinear relationships and examine the information transfer between the IMFs. Notably, the transfer entropy suggests that high frequency ion cyclotron waves may be driven by the mirror mode structures. Our case study effectively demonstrates the utility of the information theory based tools for studying cross-scale wave coupling phenomena.

Rivera, Elmer C. [Andrews University, Berrien Spri↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel random forest approach to revealing interactions and controls on chlorophyll concentration and bacterial communities during coastal phytoplankton blooms

Abstract Increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms across the land–water interface poses significant risks to coastal ecosystem structure and human health. Defining significant drivers and their interactive impacts on blooms allows for more effective analysis and identification of specific conditions supporting phytoplankton growth. A novel iterative Random Forests (iRF) machine-learning model was developed and applied to two example cases along the California coast to identify key stable interactions: (1) phytoplankton abundance in response to various drivers due to coastal conditions and land-sea nutrient fluxes, (2) microbial community structure during algal blooms. In Example 1, watershed derived nutrients were identified as the least significant interacting variable associated with Monterey Bay phytoplankton abundance. In Example 2, through iRF analysis of field-based 16S OTU bacterial community and algae datasets, we independently found stable interactions of prokaryote abundance patterns associated with phytoplankton abundance that have been previously identified in laboratory-based studies. Our study represents the first iRF application to marine algal blooms that helps to identify ocean, microbial, and terrestrial conditions that are considered dominant causal factors on bloom dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Two-tooth bosonic quantum comb for temporal-correlation sensing

We introduce a two-tooth bosonic quantum comb that captures the sequential interactions between a thermal absorber and a long-lived coherent probe. The comb provides a causal, multi-time description of coherence transport, tracking how the probe records both instantaneous fluctuations and their temporal correlations. Using a process-tensor formulation, we derive closed form expressions showing that interference between the two interaction windows generates a non-monotonic memory response that reflects a fundamental competition between the absorbers thermal population and its dynamical correlations. By sweeping the temporal separation between the interaction windows, the probe directly samples the absorbers population correlator, enabling bosonic noise spectroscopy that discriminates Markovian temperature noise from slow or spectrally structured fluctuations. The approach is readily compatible with circuit-QED platforms and offers a general method for probing fluctuating bosonic environments.

Zhu, Shaojiang [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Visual HPC Workflows for the Analysis of System Dynamics Models

Visual analytics supported by high performance computing (HPC) accelerates and enhances the discovery, exploration, and analysis of causal patterns in complex system dynamics (SD) models. We present a suite of visualization-assisted ensemble-based techniques for hypothesis generation and testing, and for sensitivity analysis. By employing HPC to provide parallel, on-demand simulation of SD models, one can “steer” an ensemble of simulated scenarios in real time as one first formulates and then informally tests those hypotheses: this provides rapid feedback for analysts to refine their understanding of the causal relationships emergent from a model. Such understandings can be followed and augmented by rigorous application of statistical methods, namely global variance-based sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo filtering, adaptive regional sensitivity analysis, and self-organized maps: here timely computation relies on HPC, while effective presentation emphasizes high-dimensional multivariate data visualization. Immersive visualization in virtual 3D environments provides an excellent adjunct to the traditional 2D graphics typically used for SD models, as it generates an embodied understanding of model behavior and facilitates an active, collaborative critique of model structure and output. Finally, we summarize prospects for HPC-enabled visual analytics applied to SD modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Manipulation of amorphous precursors to enhance zeolite nucleation

Crystallization in media comprised of amorphous precursors is becoming a more common phenomenon for numerous synthetic, biological, and natural materials that grow by a combination of classical and nonclassical pathways. Amorphous phases can exhibit a wide range of physicochemical properties that may evolve during the course of nucleation and crystal growth. This creates challenges for establishing causal relationships between amorphous precursor properties and their effect(s) on the selection of mechanistic pathways of crystallization and ultimately the properties of the crystalline product. In this study, we examine ways to manipulate the composition and colloidal stability of amorphous (alumino)silicate precursors that are prevalent in nanoporous zeolite syntheses. Changes in the amorphous precursor properties are evaluated on the basis of their ability to enhance rates of crystal formation. Here, we use fumed silica as the primary silicon source and examine the effects of infusing the source or growth medium with additional alkali metal, which serves as an inorganic structure-directing agent to facilitate the formation of porous crystal structures. We also assess the impact of adding a polymer additive, which reduces the colloidal stability of precursors, wherein we posit that the confined pockets of solution within the interstitial spaces of the precursor aggregates play an important role in regulating the rate of zeolite crystallization. Three commercially relevant zeolites (mordenite, SSZ-13, and ZSM-5) were selected for this study based on their diverse frameworks and methods of preparation. Here our findings reveal that alkali infusion significantly reduces the crystallization times for mordenite and SSZ-13, but has little impact on ZSM-5 synthesis. Conversely, we find that polymer addition markedly enhanced the rates of crystallization among all three zeolites, suggesting that this method may be a general approach to reduce zeolite synthesis times. Given the relatively high costs associated with commercial zeolite production, identifying new methods to improve the efficiency of hydrothermal syntheses can have significant practical implications beyond the fundamental benefits of developing new routes to tailor nonclassical crystallization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Examination of the Hydropower Licensing and Federal Authorization Process

Site-permitting and regulation are necessary to ensure hydropower projects (both original and relicensed) comply with statutory requirements and address multiple stakeholder priorities that consider a range of factors, including water quality, species protection, cultural resource impacts, and recreation. However, the time involved in acquiring a license for an individual hydropower project can be highly variable by project, leading to increased project costs, financial risks, and uncertainties. In part, this variability is the result of a regulatory structure that has evolved over time to include multiple approvals and compliance requirements administered by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE), federal land management agencies, federal and state resource agencies, and Indian Tribes. Ultimately, the time, benefits, costs, and risks to developers associated with hydropower regulatory processes and/or the preparation (e.g., studies) required for regulatory agency review are not well documented or synthesized in the public domain, which may increase uncertainty and variability within the process. This report addresses these needs by presenting results of a comprehensive examination of hydropower licensing including quantitative and qualitative analyses of timelines, causal factors, and their combined effect on risk and costs to developers.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1991

Non-Gaussian microwave background fluctuations from nonlinear gravitational effects

Whether the statistics of primordial fluctuations for structure formation are Gaussian or otherwise may be determined if the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Satellite makes a detection of the cosmic microwave-background temperature anisotropy delta T(sub CMB)/T(sub CMB). Non-Gaussian fluctuations may be generated in the chaotic inflationary model if two scalar fields interact nonlinearly with gravity. Theoretical contour maps are calculated for the resulting Sachs-Wolfe temperature fluctuations at large angular scales (greater than 3 degrees). In the long-wavelength approximation, one can confidently determine the nonlinear evolution of quantum noise with gravity during the inflationary epoch because: (1) different spatial points are no longer in causal contact; and (2) quantum gravity corrections are typically small-- it is sufficient to model the system using classical random fields. If the potential for two scalar fields V(phi sub 1, phi sub 2) possesses a sharp feature, then non-Gaussian fluctuations may arise. An explicit model is given where cold spots in delta T(sub CMB)/T(sub CMB) maps are suppressed as compared to the Gaussian case. The fluctuations are essentially scale-invariant.

Salopek, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

DigitalHuman (DH): An Integrative Mathematical Model ofHuman Physiology

Mathematical models and simulation are important tools in discovering the key causal relationships governing physiological processes and improving medical intervention when physiological complexity is a central issue. We have developed a model of integrative human physiology called DigitalHuman (DH) consisting of -5000 variables modeling human physiology describing cardiovascular, renal, respiratory, endocrine, neural and metabolic physiology. Users can view time-dependent solutions and interactively introduce perturbations by altering numerical parameters to investigate new hypotheses. The variables, parameters and quantitative relationships as well as all other model details are described in XML text files. All aspects of the model, including the mathematical equations describing the physiological processes are written in XML open source, text-readable files. Model structure is based upon empirical data of physiological responses documented within the peer-reviewed literature. The model can be used to understand proposed physiological mechanisms and physiological interactions that may not be otherwise intUitively evident. Some of the current uses of this model include the analyses of renal control of blood pressure, the central role of the liver in creating and maintaining insulin resistance, and the mechanisms causing orthostatic hypotension in astronauts. Additionally the open source aspect of the modeling environment allows any investigator to add detailed descriptions of human physiology to test new concepts. The model accurately predicts both qualitative and more importantly quantitative changes in clinically and experimentally observed responses. DigitalHuman provides scientists a modeling environment to understand the complex interactions of integrative physiology. This research was supported by.NIH HL 51971, NSF EPSCoR, and NASA

Hester, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Preview-Based Stable-Inversion for Output Tracking

Stable Inversion techniques can be used to achieve high-accuracy output tracking. However, for nonminimum phase systems, the inverse is non-causal - hence the inverse has to be pre-computed using a pre-specified desired-output trajectory. This requirement for pre-specification of the desired output restricts the use of inversion-based approaches to trajectory planning problems (for nonminimum phase systems). In the present article, it is shown that preview information of the desired output can be used to achieve online inversion-based output tracking of linear systems. The amount of preview-time needed is quantified in terms of the tracking error and the internal dynamics of the system (zeros of the system). The methodology is applied to the online output tracking of a flexible structure and experimental results are presented.

Zou, Qing-Ze↗

NASA NTRS1994

Planetary Ringmoon Systems

The last decade has seen an avalanche of observations of planetary ring systems, both from spacecraft and from Earth. Much of the structure revealed was thoroughly puzzling and fired the imagination of workers in a variety of disciplines. Consequently, we have also seen steady progress in our understanding of these systems as our intuitions (and our computers) catch up with the myriad ways in which gravity, fluid and statistical mechanics, and electromagnetism can combine to shape the distribution of the submicron to-several-meter size particles which comprise ring systems (refs 1-5). The now-complete reconnaissance of the gas giant planets by spacecraft has revealed that ring systems and families of regular satellites are invariably found together, and there is an emerging perspective that they are not only physically but causally linked. There is also mounting evidence that many features or aspects of all planetary ring systems, if not the ring systems themselves, are considerably younger than the solar system.

Cuzzi, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Risk estimation based on chromosomal aberrations induced by radiation

The presence of a causal association between the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes and the risk of cancer has been substantiated recently by epidemiological studies. Cytogenetic analyses of crew members of the Mir Space Station have shown that a significant increase in the frequency of chromosomal aberrations can be detected after flight, and that such an increase is likely to be attributed to the radiation exposure. The risk of cancer can be estimated directly from the yields of chromosomal aberrations, taking into account some aspects of individual susceptibility and other factors unrelated to radiation. However, the use of an appropriate technique for the collection and analysis of chromosomes and the choice of the structural aberrations to be measured are crucial in providing sound results. Based on the fraction of aberrant lymphocytes detected before and after flight, the relative risk after a long-term Mir mission is estimated to be about 1.2-1.3. The new technique of mFISH can provide useful insights into the quantification of risk on an individual basis.

STS Shuttle Project↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence in the Expanding Solar Wind: Residual Energy and Intermittency

We conduct 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of decaying turbulence in the context of the solar wind. To account for the spherical expansion of the solar wind, we implement the expanding box model. The initial turbulence comprises uncorrelated counterpropagating Alfvén waves and exhibits an isotropic power spectrum. Our findings reveal the consistent generation of negative residual energy whenever nonlinear interactions are present, independent of the normalized cross helicity σc and compressibility. The spherical expansion facilitates this process. The resulting residual energy is primarily distributed in the perpendicular direction, with S 2 (b) − S 2 (u) ∝ l ⊥ or equivalently –E r ∝ k$^{–2}_{⟂}$. Here S 2 (b) and S 2 (u) are second-order structure functions of magnetic field and velocity respectively. In most runs, S 2 (b) develops a scaling relation S 2 (b) ∝ $l$$^{1/2}_{⊥}$ (E b ∝ k$^{–3/2}_{⟂}$). In contrast, S 2 (u) is consistently shallower than S 2 (b), which aligns with in situ observations of the solar wind. We observe that the higher-order statistics of the turbulence, which act as a proxy for intermittency, depend on the initial σc and are strongly affected by the expansion effect. Generally, the intermittency is more pronounced when the expansion effect is present. Finally, we find that in our simulations, although the negative residual energy and intermittency grow simultaneously as the turbulence evolves, the causal relation between them seems to be weak, possibly because they are generated on different scales.

Interplanetary turbulence↗

NASA NTRS1984

Possible Sea Ice Impacts on Oceanic Deep Convection

Many regions of the world ocean known or suspected to have deep convection are sea-ice covered for at least a portion of the annual cycle. As this suggests that sea ice might have some impact on generating or maintaining this phenomenon, several mechanisms by which sea ice could exert an influence are presented in the following paragraphs. Sea ice formation could be a direct causal factor in deep convection by providing the surface density increase necessary to initiate the convective overturning. As sea ice forms, either by ice accretion or by in situ ice formation in open water or in lead areas between ice floes, salt is rejected to the underlying water. This increases the water salinity, thereby increasing water density in the mixed layer under the ice. A sufficient increase in density will lead to mixing with deeper waters, and perhaps to deep convection or even bottom water formation. Observations are needed to establish whether this process is actually occurring; it is most likely in regions with extensive ice formation and a relatively unstable oceanic density structure.

Parkinson, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Axial focusing of impact energy in the Earth's interior: Proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis

A causal link between major impact events and global processes would probably require a significant change in the thermal state of the Earth's interior, presumably brought about by coupling of impact energy. One possible mechanism for such energy coupling from the surface to the deep interior would be through focusing due to axial symmetry. Antipodal focusing of surface and body waves from earthquakes is a well-known phenomenon which has previously been exploited by seismologists in studies of the Earth's deep interior. Antipodal focusing from impacts on the Moon, Mercury, and icy satellites has also been invoked by planetary scientists to explain unusual surface features opposite some of the large impact structures on these bodies. For example, 'disrupted' terrains have been observed antipodal to the Caloris impact basis on Mercury and Imbrium Basin on the Moon. Very recently there have been speculations that antipodal focusing of impact energy within the mantle may lead to flood basalt and hotspot activity, but there has not yet been an attempt at a rigorous model. A new hypothesis was proposed and preliminary proof-of-principle tests for the coupling of energy from major impacts to the mantle by axial focusing of seismic waves was performed. Because of the axial symmetry of the explosive source, the phases and amplitudes are dependent only on ray parameter (or takeoff angle) and are independent of azimuthal angle. For a symmetric and homogeneous Earth, all the seismic energy radiated by the impact at a given takeoff angle will be refocused (minus attenuation) on the axis of symmetry, regardless of the number of reflections and refractions it has experienced. Mantle material near the axis of symmetry will experience more strain cycles with much greater amplitude than elsewhere and will therefore experience more irreversible heating. The situation is very different than for a giant earthquake, which in addition to having less energy, has an asymmetric focal mechanism and a larger area. Two independent proof-of-principle approaches were used. The first makes use of seismic simulations, which are being performed with a realistic Earth model to determine the degree of focusing along the axis and to estimate the volume of material, if any, that experiences significant irreversible heating. The second involves two-dimensional hydrodynamic code simulations to determine the stress history, internal energy, and temperature rise as a function of radius along the axis.

Boslough, M. B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Convoluted filtering for process cycle modeling

Principles of materials science and engineering, physics, mathematics, and information science are used to extract knowledge and insights from the process-structure–property-performance relationships hidden in materials data. The process-structure modeling can be accelerated without loss of interpretability, with artificial intelligence tools that mimic the salient features of the process and process-structure relations. In this work, a novel convoluted model-filtering technique was exploited to build and successfully train the Convoluted Filter (CoFi) artifacts for Fe-based alloy heat treatment cycles. The artifacts were pre-trained to filter out deep models that change the surrogate microstructure state after the heat treatment at ambient conditions. Direct representation of the thermal cycle features within knowledge Graph facilitated development of meaningful data models for microstructure evolution, which reduce overfitting to limited datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1989

Manipulation strategies for massive space payloads

Control for the bracing strategy is being examined. It was concluded earlier that trajectory planning must be improved to best achieve the bracing motion. Very interesting results were achieved which enable the inverse dynamics of flexible arms to be calculated for linearized motion in a more efficient manner than previously published. The desired motion of the end point beginning at t=0 and ending at t=t sub f is used to calculate the required torque at the joint. The solution is separated into a causal function that is zero for t is less than 0 and an accusal function which is zero for t is greater than t sub f. A number of alternative end point trajectories were explored in terms of the peak torque required, the amount of anticipatory action, and other issues. The single link case is the immediate subject and an experimental verification of that case is being performed. Modeling with experimental verification of closed chain dynamics continues. Modeling effort has pointed out inaccuracies that result from the choice of numerical techniques used to incorporate the closed chain constraints when modeling our experimental prototype RALF (Robotic Arm Large and Flexible). Results were compared to TREETOPS, a multi body code. The experimental verification work is suggesting new ways to make comparisons with systems having structural linearity and joint and geometric nonlinearity. The generation of inertial forces was studied with a small arm that will damp the large arm's vibration.

Book, Wayne J.↗