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At least 217 records · Page 12

Moon, Mars and Minds: Evaluating Parkinson’s disease mortality among U.S. radiation workers and veterans in the million person study of low-dose effects

Background: Radiation is one of the most important stressors related to missions in space beyond Earth’s orbit. Epidemiologic studies of exposed workers have reported elevated rates of Parkinson’s disease. The importance of cognitive dysfunction related to low-dose rate radiation in humans is not defined. A meta-analysis was conducted of six cohorts in the Million Person Study (MPS) of low-dose health effects to learn whether there is consistent evidence that Parkinson’s disease is associated with radiation dose to brain. Materials and methods: The MPS evaluates all causes of death among U.S. radiation workers and veterans, including Parkinson’s disease. Systematic and consistent methods are applied to study all categories of workers including medical radiation workers, industrial radiographers, nuclear power plant workers, atomic veterans, and Manhattan Projects workers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and at Rocky Flats. Consistent methods for all cohorts are used to estimate organ-specific doses and to obtain vital status and cause of death. Results: The meta-analysis include 6 cohorts within the MPS, consisting of 517,608 workers and 17,219,001 person-years of observation. The mean dose to brain ranged from 6.9 to 47.6 mGy and the maximum dose from 0.76 to 2.7 Gy. Five of the 6 cohorts revealed positive associations with Parkinson’s disease. The overall summary estimate from the meta-analysis was statistically significant based on 1573 deaths due to Parkinson’s disease. The summary excess relative risk at 100 mGy was 0.17 (95% CI: 0.05; 0.29). Conclusions: Parkinson’s disease was positively associated with radiation in the MPS cohorts indicating the need for careful evaluation as to causality in other studies, delineation of possible mechanisms, and assessing possible implications for space travel as well as radiation protection guidance for terrestrial workers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Electric field measurements during supercharging events on the MAIMIK rocket experiment

Data are presented on the evolution of electric field structures near the MAIMIK mother-daughter tethered rocket during active electron emissions from the rocket, which consisted of two separately instrumented payload sections which were detached in-flight. The results of the E field data analysis show that the temporal behavior of the fields was consistent with ion responses to the rapid charging of the active payload. A qualitative model of the interaction between the active payload and the ambient plasma background is developed to explain the electric field data, including the apparent causal relationship between the radial and tangential impulse components.

Denig, W. F.↗

Computational tools and data integration to accelerate vaccine development: challenges, opportunities, and future directions

The development of effective vaccines is crucial for combating current and emerging pathogens. Despite significant advances in the field of vaccine development there remain numerous challenges including the lack of standardized data reporting and curation practices, making it difficult to determine correlates of protection from experimental and clinical studies. Significant gaps in data and knowledge integration can hinder vaccine development which relies on a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between pathogens and the host immune system. In this review, we explore the current landscape of vaccine development, highlighting the computational challenges, limitations, and opportunities associated with integrating diverse data types for leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques in vaccine design. We discuss the role of natural language processing, semantic integration, and causal inference in extracting valuable insights from published literature and unstructured data sources, as well as the computational modeling of immune responses. Furthermore, we highlight specific challenges associated with uncertainty quantification in vaccine development and emphasize the importance of establishing standardized data formats and ontologies to facilitate the integration and analysis of heterogeneous data. Through data harmonization and integration, the development of safe and effective vaccines can be accelerated to improve public health outcomes. Looking to the future, we highlight the need for collaborative efforts among researchers, data scientists, and public health experts to realize the full potential of AI-assisted vaccine design and streamline the vaccine development process.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Boundary-Layer Transition Prediction Through Loose Coupling of OVERFLOW and LASTRAC

Transition prediction based on linear stability theory is expected to more accurately reflect the causality of transition onset than phenomenological transition models based on RANS-like transport equations. To help achieve the CFD vision 2030 aim of building a CFD tool chain with automated prediction of boundary layer transition, a technique to loosely tie the NASA OVERFLOW CFD solver with the LASTRAC stability analysis tool is described. The coupled solver is then used to compute transition over selected over a flat plate in a freestream with sufficiently low levels of turbulence, NLF(1)-0416 airfoil, the 6:1 prolate spheroid at an angle of attack, and a NASA juncture flow model with symmetric wing configuration. The findings show that the loosely coupled approach can reliably predict the transition location accurately in scenarios that are dominated by a single transition mechanism involving Tollmien-Schlichting instabilities, crossflow instabilities, or separation bubble-induced transition, or include a mixture of selected mechanisms. The toolset presents here appears to be robust to the prescription of the initial transition location, and it can lead to a converged solution in four or five rounds of the mean flow calculation and stability analysis, with minimal input from the user.

boundary layer transition↗

Grid impact analysis using controller-hardware-in-the-loop for high-power vehicle charging stations

A controller-hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) architecture for the evaluation of grid impacts arising from high-power vehicle charging stations is presented in this paper. Unlike simulation-based studies, the proposed method can be used to capture the interactions of the grid and the charging load along with charger controllers in real time. The proposed method can be used to evaluate the impact of charging load on the grid in terms of voltage variations and line congestion. The proposed CHIL platform allows for de-risking the vehicle charging station deployment by simulating the complex interactions among all the components of a vehicle charging station - i.e., the grid, vehicle, and charger controller - in a realistic manner before using the charging station in a grid. Further, the proposed CHIL approach can be used to evaluate the voltage regulation causalities of the vehicle charging station. Experimental results are presented in the paper to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method in a laboratory environment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analysis of Real-World Preignition Data Using Neural Networks

Increasing adoption of downsized, boosted, spark-ignition engines has improved vehicle fuel economy, and continued improvement is desirable to reduce carbon emissions in the near-term. However, this strategy is limited by damaging preignition events which can cause hardware failure. Research to date has shed light on various contributing factors related to fuel and lubricant properties as well as calibration strategies, but the causal factors behind an individual preignition cycle remain elusive. If actionable precursors could be identified, mitigation through active control strategies would be possible. This paper uses artificial neural networks to search for identifiable precursors in the cylinder pressure data from a large real-world data set containing many preignition cycles. It is found that while follow-up preignition cycles in clusters can be readily predicted, the initial preignition cycle is not predictable based on features of the cylinder pressure. Further, this indicates that the alternating pattern of preignition cycles within clusters is influenced by the thermodynamic state as reflected in the pressure, but that the trigger for the initial preignition cycle is not thermodynamic in nature, but more likely tied to a critical threshold in the chemistry of the fuel/lubricant mixture in the upper crevice or other factors related to the presence of an ignition source.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The structure of quantum singularities on a Cauchy horizon

Spacetime singularities pose a long-standing puzzle in quantum gravity. Unlike Schwarzschild, a generic family of black holes gives rise to a Cauchy horizon on which, even in the Hartle-Hawking state, quantum observables such as ⟨T μν ⟩ — the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor — can diverge, causing a breakdown of semiclassical gravity. Because they are diagnosed within quantum field theory (QFT) on a smooth background, these singularities may provide a better-controlled version of the spacetime singularity problem, and merit further study. Here, I highlight a mildness puzzle of Cauchy horizon singularities: the ⟨T μν ⟩ singularity is significantly milder than expected from symmetry and dimensional analysis. I address the puzzle in a simple spacetime ${\mathcal{W}}_P$, which arises universally near all black hole Cauchy horizons: the past of a codimension-two spacelike plane in flat spacetime. Specifically, I propose an extremely broad QFT construction in which, roughly speaking, Cauchy horizon singularities originate from operator insertions in the causal complement of the spacetime. The construction reproduces well-known outer horizon singularities (e.g., in the Boulware state), and remarkably, when applied to ${\mathcal{W}}_P$, gives rise to a universal mild singularity structure for robust singularities, ones whose leading singular behavior is state-independent. I make non-trivial predictions for all black hole Cauchy horizon singularities using this, and discuss extending the results beyond robust singularities and the strict near Cauchy horizon limit.

black holes↗

A Review of the Customer Experience at Public Charging Stations and its Effects on Electric Vehicle Purchase and Use

The electric vehicle (EV) market in the U.S. has grown rapidly. However, poor public charging reliability could challenge achieving widespread adoption. We reviewed peer-reviewed articles and market research reports to understand how the public charging experience affects the willingness to purchase EVs among first-time buyers and current owners. Ample literature identifies the measures of the public charging experiences, characterizes the current public charging experience, and identifies the effect of infrastructure availability on EV purchase decisions. However, there is no causal evidence linking the customer experience at public chargers to purchase decisions or intentions for current EV owners or prospective buyers.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Regulatory gene networks and the properties of the developmental process

Genomic instructions for development are encoded in arrays of regulatory DNA. These specify large networks of interactions among genes producing transcription factors and signaling components. The architecture of such networks both explains and predicts developmental phenomenology. Although network analysis is yet in its early stages, some fundamental commonalities are already emerging. Two such are the use of multigenic feedback loops to ensure the progressivity of developmental regulatory states and the prevalence of repressive regulatory interactions in spatial control processes. Gene regulatory networks make it possible to explain the process of development in causal terms and eventually will enable the redesign of developmental regulatory circuitry to achieve different outcomes.

Non-NASA Center↗

Sustainable Development Tool Using Meta‐Analysis and DPSIR Framework — Application to Savannah River Basin, U.S.

Abstract The Savannah River Basin (SRB), a highly stressed southeastern river in United States is a conservation priority for State, Federal government, and nongovernment organizations. A four‐stage sustainable development tool was developed in this study using meta‐analysis and the drivers–pressures–state–impacts–responses (DPSIR) framework. Through the synthesis of ~150 references in the SRB this study addressed three research questions: (1) What were the drivers, pressures, state, impacts, and responses (components of DRSIR framework) in SRB (2) Can these components be grouped together from various studies in SRB (3) Can causal chain/loops be developed, and will they be useful for policy and decision making? First in the Stage 1, the state of the SRB was represented (S component of DPSIR), in Stage 2, the drivers–pressures–impacts–responses (DPIR components of DPSIR) were represented, in the third stage (Stage 3) the common units characterizing each DPSIR component were identified. Finally, in Stage 4, the causal chains/loops were developed and organized into scientific research at a level appropriate for building better understanding about SRB and helping stakeholders and policy makers in managing basin sustainability challenges. Although the tool was applied to SRB, the methodology is applicable to other river basins and ecosystems.

Pagan, Janeesa↗

Human Systems Risk Network - A Ranking Analysis of Risks

INTRODUCTION The Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) is responsible for understanding, managing, and mitigating the risks associated with spaceflight. For a particular mission, the HSRB assigns each human system risk a rating on a 5x5 grid assessing its likelihood and consequence, which is ultimately used to compare and rank the risks. The HSRB approaches risk management by primarily establishing the context of each human system risk individually with the understanding that mitigating one risk might affect the likelihood, consequence, and mitigation approaches of another. To support this effort the HSRB, subject matter experts, and risk custodian teams created directed acyclic graphs (DAG), often called a causal graph, for the twenty-nine risks. In this presentation, we propose a new ranking algorithm for the risks which includes the downstream influence of each risk according to the information in the DAGs and provide an application of graph theoretic tools. METHODS In 2014, Mindock and Klaus proposed a taxonomy for human system risk influences which we have adopted to categorize the nodes in each DAG. Analyzing the nodes that correspond to the risks in this taxonomy allows us to analyze and understand how each risk influences the others. We construct an auxiliary network, which we call the Primary Risk Network (PRN), where the nodes are the twenty-nine space flight risks and, a directed edge connects Risk A to Risk B if Risk A has some influence on the likelihood or consequence of Risk B as described in the DAGS. We perform a variety of graph theoretic ranking methods on the nodes (or risks) in the PRN, including Katz centrality. RESULTS We rank the nodes in the PRN using the Katz centrality score. The ten risks with the highest score are pictured in Figure 1, colored (light to dark) according to their score. We analyze other centrality measures like betweenness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and the Estrada index, and provide the meaning of the corresponding rankings in terms of the risks. Future work includes analyzing the other categories in the taxonomy defined by Mindock and Klaus [1]. For example, we are interested in analyzing the nodes that are labeled as countermeasures or capabilities and perform similar analysis to measure their effect on certain medical conditions.

dag↗

A novel random forest approach to revealing interactions and controls on chlorophyll concentration and bacterial communities during coastal phytoplankton blooms

Abstract Increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms across the land–water interface poses significant risks to coastal ecosystem structure and human health. Defining significant drivers and their interactive impacts on blooms allows for more effective analysis and identification of specific conditions supporting phytoplankton growth. A novel iterative Random Forests (iRF) machine-learning model was developed and applied to two example cases along the California coast to identify key stable interactions: (1) phytoplankton abundance in response to various drivers due to coastal conditions and land-sea nutrient fluxes, (2) microbial community structure during algal blooms. In Example 1, watershed derived nutrients were identified as the least significant interacting variable associated with Monterey Bay phytoplankton abundance. In Example 2, through iRF analysis of field-based 16S OTU bacterial community and algae datasets, we independently found stable interactions of prokaryote abundance patterns associated with phytoplankton abundance that have been previously identified in laboratory-based studies. Our study represents the first iRF application to marine algal blooms that helps to identify ocean, microbial, and terrestrial conditions that are considered dominant causal factors on bloom dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Parameters Impacting Columnated Granular Soil Pneumatic Seal Performance

The ability of a column of loose granular soil to form a pneumatic seal was investigated by varying the diameter of the soil column, the effective column height, and the level of compaction in the soil. The soil column diameter was tested at three levels using pipes with inner diameters measuring 5.08, 10.16, and 15.24 centimeters (2, 4, and 6 inches). Soil was filled in each pipe to form 15, 30, and 45 centimeter (6, 12, and 18 inch) tall soil columns. Each diameter/height configuration was also tested at three levels of soil compaction, compared by calculating the bulk density of the soil with mass and volume measurements. GRC-1a simulant was used, with approximate low/medium/high bulk densities of 1.6, 1.75, and 1.9 g/cc achieved with a combination of vibration and tamping. The order of tests for a given column diameter was randomized and repeated three times. With the top of the soil open to atmosphere at room temperature, compressed air was injected through a small diffuser at the column base with several small downward-facing holes. The number and size of these holes was scaled such that a constant total inlet orifice area to column cross sectional area ratio was maintained for each column diameter. Inlet air pressure was slowly increased via a precision regulator to preserve quasi-static equilibrium in the soil column to minimize the impact of dynamics. Air pressure was increased all the way through the static and bubbling regimes until slugging or turbulent behavior was observed in the soil to ensure that the entire static regime had been captured during data collection. A three-factor, three-level analysis of variance (ANOVA) statistical analysis was performed on the resulting data to determine the extent to which each physical parameter impacted the soil column seal performance. It was concluded that there is statistically significant evidence that column height, and the interaction between column height and diameter impact soil seal performance. In all other cases there was insufficient data to identify a statistically significant causal relationship. Additionally, plots were generated comparing experimental data to the predictive formula developed by Ogino et al. for fluidized beds in 1993. Because this model was developed for industrial spouted fluidized beds, the accuracy of its output prior to fluidization in the static seal ‘edge case’ is unknown, especially considering in this application the working gas was diffused across the column base rather than being injected through a spout. Further, the fidelity of the model had not yet been tested with lunar soil simulants. Plotting the Ogino et al. model alongside test data allows for a more intuitive sense of the impact of test parameters on soil seal performance, as well as providing a quick means to further tune this predictive model for more accurate use with static seals across granular lunar soil simulants. The model provided by Ogino et al. was further tuned using test data to determine the degree to which a spouted bed model could be applied to a slightly modified set of testing conditions: lunar soil simulants and a more diffuse, homogeneous application of pneumatic pressure. A Matlab script was created to test different values for the leading coefficient and exponents in Ogino’s formula. The script swept preset ranges, then iterated with higher resolutions across narrower ranges to converge on the optimal value for each parameter. The resulting adjusted model was compared to the original, as well as test data with noticeable improvements across the entire test domain.

Jack Stewart↗

Directed Acyclic Graphs: A Tool for Understanding the NASA Human Spaceflight System Risks - Human System Risk Board

For over a decade, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has tracked and configuration-managed approximately 30 risks to astronaut health and performance that occur before, during and after spaceflight. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), a Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) Board at NASA Johnson Space Center, is the entity responsible for identifying, assessing, analyzing, and monitoring the official understanding of the risk or risk posture for each of the Human System Risks and determining – based on evaluation of the available evidence – when that risk posture changes. The ultimate purpose of tracking and researching these risks is to find ways to reduce the risk that astronaut crews face during spaceflight. Historically, research, development and operations relevant to one risk have been conducted in isolation from other risks; these individual risk ‘silos’ enabled initial characterization of each specific risk. In spaceflight however, the impact of exposure to risk for astronaut crews is cumulative, and not independent of exposures or other risks, as all the adverse effects of the spaceflight environment begin at launch, continue throughout the duration of the mission and in some cases across the lifetime of the crews. In January of 2020, the HSRB at NASA embarked on a pilot project designed to assess the potential value of causal diagramming as a tool to facilitate understanding of these cumulative and interdependent effects as applied within Human System Risk management. This process uses directed acyclic graphs as a means of formalizing a shared mental model of the causal flow of risk among Risk Board stakeholders. Initially this model was to improve communication among those stakeholders, but the potential value exceeds communication alone. The causal diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to function as a type of knowledge graph for reference for the board and its stakeholders. This document is a sister document to NASA/TM 20220006812 Directed Acyclic Graph Guidance Documentation (1). In that document, the basic guidance for creating and standardizing directed acyclic graphs as tools for cross-risk analysis is provided. This document contains the initial configuration managed DAGs that were created as a result of applying those principles. These initial versions were accepted by the HSRB in January of 2022. Each of the Human System Risks are represented by a DAG that has been reviewed by the larger Human Health and Performance community at NASA including life scientists, physical scientists, physicians, nurses, pharmacists, exercise specialists and more. These results show the starting point for Human System Risk DAGs as shared mental models and communication aids across the boundaries of the various expertise needed to understand and mitigate the human risks in spaceflight. Because they are a starting point, each of these DAGs can be expected to change over time as new or refined evidence becomes available. The process for updating these DAGs can be found in the JSC-66705 Human System Risk Management Plan (2) that is publicly available on the NASA Technical Reports Server.

Erik L. Antonsen↗

The relationship between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and the child’s experience of school at age 9

Background At age 5, while only embarking on their educational journey, substantial differences in children’s cognitive ability will already exist. The aim of this study was to examine the causal association between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and child-reported experience of school and self-concept, and teacher-reported class engagement and emotional-behavioural function at age 9 years. Methods This longitudinal cohort study used data from 7,392 children in the Growing Up in Ireland Infant Cohort, who had completed the Picture Similarities and Naming Vocabulary subtests of the British Abilities Scales at age 5. Principal components analysis was used to produce a composite general cognitive ability score for each child. Children with a general cognitive ability score more than 1 standard deviation (SD) below the mean at age 5 were categorised as ‘Below Average Cognitive Ability’ (BACA), and those scoring above this as ‘Typical Cognitive Development’ (TCD). The outcomes of interest, measured at age 9, were child-reported experience of school, child’s self-concept, teacher-reported class engagement, and teacher-reported emotional behavioural function. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the association between BACA and these outcomes. Results Compared to those with TCD, those with BACA had significantly higher odds of never liking school [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.82, 95% CI 1.37–2.43, p < 0.001], of being picked on (AOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09–1.48) and of picking on others (AOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.27–1.84). They had significantly higher odds of experiencing low self-concept (AOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02–1.42) and emotional-behavioural difficulties (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10–1.63, p = 0.003). Compared to those with TCD, children with BACA had significantly higher odds of hardly ever or never being interested, motivated and excited to learn (AOR 2.29, 95% CI 1.70–3.10). Conclusion Children with BACA at school-entry had significantly higher odds of reporting a negative school experience and low self-concept at age 9. They had significantly higher odds of having teacher-reported poor class engagement and problematic emotional-behavioural function at age 9. The findings of this study suggest BACA has a causal role in these adverse outcomes. Early childhood policy and intervention design should be cognisant of the important role of cognitive ability in school and childhood outcomes.

Bowe, Andrea K.↗

Regarding Pilot Usage of Display Technologies for Improving Awareness of Aircraft System States

ed systems and the procedures for ng in complexity. This interacting trend places a larger burden on pilots to manage increasing amounts of information and to understand system interactions. The result is an increase in the likelihood of loss of airplane state awareness (ASA). One way to gain more insight into this issue is through experimentation using objective measures of visual behavior. This study summarizes an analysis of oculometer data obtained during a high-fidelity flight simulation study that included a variety of complex pilot-system interactions that occur in current flight decks, as well as several planned for the next generation air transportation system. The study was comprised of various scenarios designed to induce low and high energy aircraft states coupled with other emulated causal factors in recent accidents. Three different display technologies were evaluated in this recent pilot-in-the-loop study conducted at NASA Langley Research Center. These technologies include a stall recovery guidance algorithm and display concept, an enhanced airspeed control indication of when the automation is no longer actively controlling airspeed, and enhanced synoptic diagrams with corresponding simplified electronic interactive checklists. Multiple data analyses were performed to understand how the 26 participating airline pilots were observing ASA-related information provided during different stag specific events within these stages.

Daniels, Taumi S.↗

Towards a program of record of inland water quality: Exploiting present and heritage multispectral sensors for maximum information extraction

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This research exploits recent advancements in bio-optical modeling, cloud computing, and machine learning to enhance our capacity to leverage present and heritage satellite data. Recent research suggests that sensors with low spectral resolution, such as Sentinel 2 and Landsat missions, contain enough hidden spectral variation which can be exploited using data-driven approaches. The availability of three decades of archival imagery will open doors to discover global trends of eutrophication and increased cyanobacteria dominance and provide valuable insight to the development of predictive methodologies. Preliminary efforts in synthetic emulation of global natural inland waters will be discussed and contextualized against satellite radiometric measurement uncertainty, satellite data product uncertainties and causal signal ambiguity over the visible wavelength range, supported by high quality field and image data for selected inland aquatic sites. Insights on water quality estimation via data-driven machine learning models versus matrix inversions will be discussed, and how we can exploit spectral-spatial relationships in high spatial resolution data. A cross-sensor synergistic approach with detailed uncertainty analysis based on optical water types, will allow for unprecedented global snapshots of fine scale ecological dynamics of inland waters.

Inland↗

Investigation of Causal Relationships of the Cross‐Scale Wave Coupling Through Information Theoretical Approach

On 2015 October 2, MMS spacecraft observed an electron micro-injection event near the southern hemispheric high-altitude cusp, coinciding with intense wave activity across several frequency bands. Here, we investigated the MMS magnetic field and plasma during this event to explore cross-scale coupling among the wave modes. Employing the Hilbert-Huang transform, we perform an empirical mode decomposition to extract frequencies and amplitudes of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). In this analysis, we establish both linear and nonlinear relationships and examine the information transfer between the IMFs. Notably, the transfer entropy suggests that high frequency ion cyclotron waves may be driven by the mirror mode structures. Our case study effectively demonstrates the utility of the information theory based tools for studying cross-scale wave coupling phenomena.

Rivera, Elmer C. [Andrews University, Berrien Spri↗