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Results for “calibration and fitting methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2001

Synchronized Electronic Shutter System (SESS) for Thermal Nondestructive Evaluation

The purpose of this paper is to describe a new method for thermal nondestructive evaluation. This method uses a synchronized electronic shutter system (SESS) to remove the heat lamp's influence on the thermal data during and after flash heating. There are two main concerns when using flash heating. The first concern is during the flash when the photons are reflected back into the camera. This tends to saturate the detectors and potentially introduces unknown and uncorrectable errors when curve fitting the data to a model. To address this, an electronically controlled shutter was placed over the infrared camera lens. Before firing the flash lamps, the shutter is opened to acquire the necessary background data for offset calibration. During flash heating, the shutter is closed to prevent the photons from the high intensity flash from saturating the camera's detectors. The second concern is after the flash heating where the lamps radiate heat after firing. This residual cooling introduces an unwanted transient thermal response into the data. To remove this residual effect, a shutter was placed over the flash lamps to block the infrared heat radiating from the flash head after heating. This helped to remove the transient contribution of the flash. The flash lamp shutters were synchronized electronically with the camera shutter. Results are given comparing the use of the thermal inspection with and without the shutter system.

Zalameda, Joseph N.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Quantitative Electron Probe Microanalysis: State of the Art

Quantitative electron-probe microanalysis (EPMA) has improved due to better instrument design and X-ray correction methods. Design improvement of the electron column and X-ray spectrometer has resulted in measurement precision that exceeds analytical accuracy. Wavelength-dispersive spectrometer (WDS) have layered-dispersive diffraction crystals with improved light-element sensitivity. Newer energy-dispersive spectrometers (EDS) have Si-drift detector elements, thin window designs, and digital processing electronics with X-ray throughput approaching that of WDS Systems. Using these systems, digital X-ray mapping coupled with spectrum imaging is a powerful compositional mapping tool. Improvements in analytical accuracy are due to better X-ray correction algorithms, mass absorption coefficient data sets,and analysis method for complex geometries. ZAF algorithms have ban superceded by Phi(pz) algorithms that better model the depth distribution of primary X-ray production. Complex thin film and particle geometries are treated using Phi(pz) algorithms, end results agree well with Monte Carlo simulations. For geological materials, X-ray absorption dominates the corretions end depends on the accuracy of mass absorption coefficient (MAC) data sets. However, few MACs have been experimentally measured, and the use of fitted coefficients continues due to general success of the analytical technique. A polynomial formulation of the Bence-Albec alpha-factor technique, calibrated using Phi(pz) algorithms, is used to critically evaluate accuracy issues and can be also be used for high 2% relative and is limited by measurement precision for ideal cases, but for many elements the analytical accuracy is unproven. The EPMA technique has improved to the point where it is frequently used instead of the petrogaphic microscope for reconnaissance work. Examples of stagnant research areas are: WDS detector design characterization of calibration standards, and the need for more complete treatment of the continuum X-ray fluorescence correction.

Carpernter, P. K.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Constructing angular distributions of neutrinos in core-collapse supernovae from zeroth and first moments calibrated by full Boltzmann neutrino transport

Two-moment neutrino transport methods have been widely used for developing theoretical models of core-collapse supernovae (CCSN), since they substantially reduce the computational burden inherent in the multidimensional neutrino-radiation hydrodynamical simulations. The approximation, however, comes at a price; the detailed structure of angular distribution of neutrinos is sacrificed, that is the main drawback of this approach. In this paper, we develop a novel method by which to construct angular distributions of neutrinos from the zeroth and first angular moments. In our method, the angular distribution is expressed with two quadratic functions of the neutrino angle in a piecewise fashion. We determine the best parameters in the fitting function by comparing to the neutrino data in a spherically symmetric CCSN model with full Boltzmann neutrino transport. We demonstrate the capability of our method by using our recent 2D CCSN model. In this work, we find that the essential features of the angular distributions can be well reconstructed, whereas the angular distributions of incoming neutrinos tend to have large errors that increase with flux factor ($\textit{κ}$). This issue originates from the insensitiveness of incoming neutrinos to $\textit{κ}$, that is an intrinsic limitation in moment methods. Based on the results of the demonstration, we assess the reliability of electron- neutrinos lepton number (ELN)-crossing searches with the two-moment neutrino transport. This analysis is complementary to our [L. Johns and H. Nagakura arXiv:2104.04106] that scrutinizes the limitation of crossing searches with a few moments. We find that the systematic errors of angular distributions for incoming neutrinos lead to misjudgements of the crossing at $\textit{κ}$ ≳ 0.5. This casts doubt on the results of ELN-crossing searches based on two-moment methods in some previous studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Autocalibration of the E3SM Version 2 Atmosphere Model Using a PCA-Based Surrogate for Spatial Fields

Global Climate Model tuning (calibration) is a tedious and time-consuming process, with high-dimensional input and output fields. Experts typically tune by iteratively running climate simulations with hand-picked values of tuning parameters. Many, in both the statistical and climate literature, have proposed alternative calibration methods, but most are impractical or difficult to implement. We present a practical, robust, and rigorous calibration approach on the atmosphere-only model of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. Our approach can be summarized into two main parts: (a) the training of a surrogate that predicts E3SM output in a fraction of the time compared to running E3SM, and (b) gradient-based parameter optimization. To train the surrogate, we generate a set of designed ensemble runs that span our input parameter space and use polynomial chaos expansions on a reduced output space to fit the E3SM output. We use this surrogate in an optimization scheme to identify values of the input parameters for which our model best matches gridded spatial fields of climate observations. To validate our choice of parameters, we run E3SMv2 with the optimal parameter values and compare prediction results to expertly-tuned simulations across 45 different output fields. This flexible, robust, and automated approach is straightforward to implement, and we demonstrate that the resulting model output matches present day climate observations as well or better than the corresponding output from expert tuned parameter values, while considering high-dimensional output and operating in a fraction of the time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology From CMB Lensing and Delensed EE Power Spectra Using 2019-2020 SPT-3G Polarization Data

From CMB polarization data alone we reconstruct the CMB lensing power spectrum, comparable in overall constraining power to previous temperature-based reconstructions, and an unlensed E -mode power spectrum, with clear detections of the third through tenth acoustic peaks. The observations, taken in 2019 and 2020 with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the SPT-3G camera, cover 1500 deg 2 at 95, 150, and 220 GHz with arcminute resolution and roughly 4.9 µ K-arcmin coadded noise in polarization. The power spectrum estimates, together with systematic parameter estimates and a joint covariance matrix, follow from a Bayesian analysis using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method. The E -mode spectrum at ℓ > 2000 and lensing spectrum at L > 350 are the most precise to date. Assuming the ΛCDM model, and using only these SPT data and priors on τ and absolute calibration from Planck, we find H 0 = 66.81 ± 0.81 km/s/Mpc, comparable in precision to the Planck determination and in 5.4 σ tension with the most precise H 0 inference derived via the distance ladder. We also find S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.850 ± 0.017, providing further independent evidence of a slight tension with low-redshift structure probes. The ΛCDM model provides a good simultaneous fit to the combined Planck, ACT, and SPT data, and thus passes a powerful test. Combining these CMB datasets with BAO observations, we explore extensions to the ΛCDM model. We find that the effective number of neutrino species, spatial curvature, and primordial helium fraction are consistent with standard model values, and that the 95% confidence upper limit on the neutrino mass sum is 0.075 eV, close to the minimum sum expected from observations of solar and atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The SPT data are consistent with the somewhat weak (< 3 σ ) preference for excess lensing power seen in Planck and ACT data relative to predictions of the ΛCDM model given the combined Planck, ACT, and BAO data sets. Finally, we also detect at greater than 3 σ the influence of non-linear evolution in the CMB lensing power spectrum and discuss it in the context of the S 8 tension. Forthcoming SPT-3G analyses will feature deeper and wider observations in temperature and polarization, providing even tighter constraints and more powerful tests of the ΛCDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1995

High Accuracy In-Flight Wavelength Calibration of Imaging Spectrometry Data

Accurate wavelength calibration of imaging spectrometer data is essential if proper atmospheric transmission corrections are to be made to obtain apparent surface reflectance. Accuracies of 0.1 nm are necessary for a 10 nm-sampling instrument in order to match the slopes of the deep atmospheric water vapor features that dominate the 0.7-2.3 micrometer regions. The Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) is calibrated in the laboratory to determine the wavelength position and full-width-half-maximum (FWHM) response for each of the 224 channels. The accuracies are limited by the quality of the monochromator used as a source. The accuracies vary from plus or minus to plus or minus 1.5 nm depending on the wavelength region, in general decreasing with increasing wavelength. Green et al. make corrections to the wavelength calibrations by using the known positions of 14 atmospheric absorption features throughout the 0.4-2.5 micrometer wavelength region. These features, having varying width and intensity, were matched to the MODTRAN model with a non-linear least squares fitting algorithm. A complete calibration was developed for all 224 channels by interpolation. Instrument calibration cannot be assumed to be stable to 0.1 nm over a flight season given the rigors of thermal cycling and launch and landing loads. The upcoming sensor HYDICE will require a means for in-flight spectral calibration of each scene because the calibration is both temperature and pressure sensitive. In addition, any sensor using a two-dimensional array has the potential for systematic wavelength shifts as a function of cross-track position, commonly called 'smile'. Therefore, a rapid means for calibrating complete images will be required. The following describes a method for determining instrument wavelength calibration using atmospheric absorption features that is efficient enough to be used for entire images on workstations. This study shows the effect of the surface reflectance on the calibration accuracy and the calibration history for the AVIRIS B spectrometer over the 1992 flight season.

Goetz, Alexander F. H.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dark Energy Survey: A 2.1% measurement of the angular baryonic acoustic oscillation scale at redshift z eff = 0.85 from the final dataset

Here, we present the angular diameter distance measurement obtained with the baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature from galaxy clustering in the completed Dark Energy Survey, consisting of six years (Y6) of observations. We use the Y6 BAO galaxy sample, optimized for BAO science in the redshift range 0.6 < z <1.2, with an effective redshift at z eff = 0.85 and split into six tomographic bins. The sample has nearly 16 million galaxies over 4,273 square degrees. Our consensus measurement constrains the ratio of the angular distance to sound horizon scale to D M ⁡(z eff )/r d = 19.51 ± 0.41 (at 68.3% confidence interval), resulting from comparing the BAO position in our data to that predicted by planck Λ⁢CDM via the BAO shift parameter α =(D M /r d )/(D M /r d ) PLANCK . To achieve this, the BAO shift is measured with three different methods, angular correlation function (ACF), angular power spectrum (APS), and projected correlation function (PCF), obtaining α = 0.952 ± 0.023, 0.962 ± 0.022, and 0.955 ± 0.020, respectively, which we combine to α = 0.957 ± 0.020, including systematic errors. When compared with the Λ⁢CDM model that best fits planck data, this measurement is found to be 4.3% and 2.1⁢σ below the angular BAO scale predicted. To date, it represents the most precise angular BAO measurement at z > 0.75 from any survey and the most precise measurement at any redshift from photometric surveys. The analysis was performed blinded to the BAO position, and it is shown to be robust against analysis choices, data removal, redshift calibrations, and observational systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1984

Doppler line profile analysis for a multichannel Fabry-Perot interferometer

A new method of instrument calibration and data analysis is presented for single-etalon interferometric measurements of winds, temperatures, and emission line intensities. The technique has been developed for the multichannel Fabry-Perot interferometer on the Dynamics Explorer spacecraft. A numerical representation of the instrumental transfer function is used based on a truncated Fourier series with empirically determined coefficients. The numerical form is compared with the conventional analytic form. The Fourier coefficients describing the instrument function are generated at the wavelength of a stable He-Ne laser and are translated to other wavelengths using an interpolation technique for both phase and power. A quasi-linear least-squares fitting process involving matrices provides for a rapid and accurate data reduction.

Killeen, T. L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Separating the intrinsic alignment signal and the lensing signal using self-calibration in photo- z surveys with KiDS450 and KV450 Data

ABSTRACT To reach the full potential for the next generation of weak lensing surveys, it is necessary to mitigate the contamination of intrinsic alignments (IAs) of galaxies in the observed cosmic shear signal. The self-calibration (SC) of IAs provides an independent method to measure the IA signal from the survey data and the photometric redshift information. It operates differently from the marginalization method based on the IA modelling. In this work, we present the first application of SC to the KiDS450 data and the KV450 data, to split directly the intrinsic shape–galaxy density (Ig) correlation signal and the gravitational shear–galaxy density (Gg) correlation signal, using the information from photometric redshift (photo-z). We achieved a clear separation of the two signals and performed several validation tests. Our measured signals are found to be in general agreement with the KiDS450 cosmic shear best-fitting cosmology, for both lensing and IA measurements. For KV450, we use partial (high-z) data, and our lensing measurements are also in good agreement with KV450 cosmic shear best fit, while our IA signal suggests a larger IA amplitude for the high-z sample. We discussed the impact of photo-z quality on IA detection and several other potential systematic biases. Finally, we discuss the potential application of the information extracted for both the lensing signal and the IA signal in future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Spatiotemporal-Aware Weighting Scheme for Improving Climate Model Ensemble Predictions

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

Testing the Reliability of Cluster Mass Indicators with a Systematics Limited Dataset

We present the mass X-ray observable scaling relationships for clusters of galaxies using the XMM-Newton cluster catalog of Snowden et al. Our results are roughly consistent with previous observational and theoretical work, with one major exception. We find 2-3 times the scatter around the best fit mass scaling relationships as expected from cluster simulations or seen in other observational studies. We suggest that this is a consequence of using hydrostatic mass, as opposed to virial mass, and is due to the explicit dependence of the hydrostatic mass on the gradients of the temperature and gas density profiles. We find a larger range of slope in the cluster temperature profiles at radii 500 than previous observational studies. Additionally, we find only a weak dependence of the gas mass fraction on cluster mass, consistent with a constant. Our average gas mass fraction results also argue for a closer study of the systematic errors due to instrumental calibration and modeling method variations between analyses. We suggest that a more careful study of the differences between various observational results and with cluster simulations is needed to understand sources of bias and scatter in cosmological studies of galaxy clusters.

Juett, Adrienne M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Dynamic Black-Level Correction and Artifact Flagging for Kepler Pixel Time Series

Methods applied to the calibration stage of Kepler pipeline data processing [1] (CAL) do not currently use all of the information available to identify and correct several instrument-induced artifacts. These include time-varying crosstalk from the fine guidance sensor (FGS) clock signals, and manifestations of drifting moire pattern as locally correlated nonstationary noise, and rolling bands in the images which find their way into the time series [2], [3]. As the Kepler Mission continues to improve the fidelity of its science data products, we are evaluating the benefits of adding pipeline steps to more completely model and dynamically correct the FGS crosstalk, then use the residuals from these model fits to detect and flag spatial regions and time intervals of strong time-varying black-level which may complicate later processing or lead to misinterpretation of instrument behavior as stellar activity.

Kolodziejczak, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

complex simulation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Micro–macro finite element modeling method for rub response in abradable coating materials

Gas turbine engines experience “rub” when the rotating blades come in contact with a static abradable coating. This results in extreme strain rates and dynamics inside a high-temperature/high-pressure environment. Current rub models are phenomenological and do not reflect the underlying microstructures, thus limiting their prediction accuracy. In this work, a microstructure-informed, reduced order modeling framework is introduced for simulating abradable coating “rub" behavior. This framework comprises a microscale model constructed based on digitized abradable microstructure and explicitly simulates the mechanical behavior of each constituent phases and their interactions. After calibration and validation with experiment data, the calibrated microscale model is used to generate data across a vast range of applied strain rates and temperature with various load paths. Then, the virtually generated data are used to fit the macroscopic-reduced order model, which enables fast component scale rub simulation without compromising the integrity of the complex material behavior. In conclusion, the proposed effort will address the technical challenge of predicting abradable material behavior during rub through the application of multiscale modeling from microstructure to engines behavior, effectively reducing the development costs and time of new abradable material for better “rub” properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrolysis of methylphosphonic anhydride solid to methylphosphonic acid probed by Raman and infrared reflectance spectroscopies

Much is still unknown about the mechanisms and rates of environmental degradation of organophosphorous pesticides and agents. In this study we focus on the degradation of one organophosphorous compound, namely solid methyl phosphonic acid anhydride [CH3P(O)OHOP(O)OHCH3, MPAN] and its rate of conversion to methyl phosphonic acid (MPA) via heterogeneous hydrolysis. Pure MPAN was synthesized and loaded in open sample cups placed inside exposure chambers containing saturated salt solutions to control the relative humidity (RH). The reaction was monitored in the sample cup at various times using both infrared hemispherical reflectance (HRF) spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy. Calibrated HRF and Raman spectra of both pure reagents as well as gravimetrically prepared mixtures were used to quantify the concentrations of MPAN and MPA throughout the reaction. Results show that both HRF and Raman spectroscopies are convenient non-invasive methods for detection of solid chemicals. The MPAN degradation rate displayed a very strong dependence on relative humidity: At room temperature the reaction showed 50% conversion of the MPAN in 761 ± 54 hours at 33% RH, 33 ± 4 hours at 43% RH, 17 ± 2 hours at 54% RH and just 7 ± 1 hours at 75% RH. Although MPAN hydrolysis is a second-order reaction, the 33 and 43% RH data, at early reaction times, could be fit with a zeroth order reaction, indicating water vapor and MPAN concentrations were not initially rate controlling. The 54 and 75% RH experiments showed significant deliquescence and decay data could only be fit assuming multiple reactions, implying chemical and/or physical processes partially controlled the hydrolysis rate, in contrast to a single process at low relative humidity.

methyl phosphonic acid, methyl phosphonic anhydrid↗

NASA NTRS2002

Earth Observing-1 Advanced Land Imager: Imaging Performance On-Orbit

This report analyzes the on-orbit imaging performance of the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on the Earth Observing-1 satellite. The pre-flight calibrations are first summarized. The methods used to reconstruct and geometrically correct the image data from this push-broom sensor are described. The method used here does not refer to the position and attitude telemetry from the spacecraft. Rather, it is assumed that the image of the scene moves across the focal plane with a constant velocity, which can be ascertained from the image data itself. Next, an assortment of the images so reconstructed is presented. Color images sharpened with the 10-m panchromatic band data are shown, and the algorithm for producing them from the 30-m multispectral data is described. The approach taken for assessing spatial resolution is to compare the sharpness of features in the on-orbit image data with profiles predicted on the basis of the pre-flight calibrations. A large assortment of bridge profiles is analyzed, and very good fits to the predicted shapes are obtained. Lunar calibration scans are analyzed to examine the sharpness of the edge-spread function at the limb of the moon. The darkness of the space beyond the limb is better for this purpose than anything that could be simulated on the ground. From these scans, we find clear evidence of scattering in the optical system, as well as some weak ghost images. Scans of planets and stars are also analyzed. Stars are useful point sources of light at all wavelengths, and delineate the point-spread functions of the system. From a quarter-speed scan over the Pleiades, we find that the ALI can detect 6th magnitude stars. The quality of the reconstructed images verifies the capability of the ALI to produce Landsat-type multi spectral data. The signal-to-noise and panchromatic spatial resolution are considerably superior to those of the existing Landsat sensors. The spatial resolution is confirmed to be as good as it was designed to be.

ALI (ADVANCED LAND IMAGER)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Active- and transfer-learning applied to microscale-macroscale coupling to simulate viscoelastic flows

Active- and transfer-learning are applied to microscale dynamics of polymer flows for the multiscale discovery of effective constitutive approximations required in viscoelastic flow simulation. The result is macroscopic rheology directly connected to a microstructural model. Micro and macroscale simulations are adaptively coupled by means of Gaussian process regression (GPR) to run the expensive microscale computations only as necessary. This multiscale method is demonstrated with flows of a polymer solution as a model system. At the microscale level dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) is employed to model the fluid as a suspension of bead-spring micro-structures subjected to steady shear flow. The results yield the non-Newtonian viscosity and the first normal stress difference at strain rates as training data used in a GPR model. DPD parameters are calibrated with respect to experimental data for a real polymer solution. Compliance with these data requires adjustment of the DPD model's cutoff radius, which then becomes a function of the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. The FENE-P model is chosen for the macroscale description using the spectral element method (SEM) to simulate channel flow and flow past a circular cylinder. The DPD results at the lowest possible shear strain rate yield an estimate of the zero-shear rate viscosity, which allows the initiation of the macroscale flow by SEM as a Newtonian fluid. The resulting strain-rate field is surveyed to determine additional shear strain rate sampling points for the DPD system. This new information allows an initial fitting of parameters of the constitutive equation followed by new SEM simulations at the macroscale. Additionally, guided by active-learning GPR to select new sampling points, this process continues until convergence is achieved. The effectiveness of this new simulation paradigm for viscoelastic flows is tested with different macroscale operating conditions. The effective closure learned in the channel simulation is then transferred directly to the flow past a circular cylinder at low Reynolds number, where the results show that only two additional DPD simulations are required to achieve a satisfactory constitutive model. With an increase of the Reynolds number, the active-learning scheme automatically detects the inaccuracy of the learned constitutive model, and initiates additional DPD simulations for the extra data needed to once again close the microscale-macroscale coupled system. This new paradigm of active- and transfer-learning for multiscale modeling is readily applicable to other microscale-macroscale coupled simulations of complex fluids and other materials. Furthermore, the coupling between microscale and macroscale solvers can be seamlessly implemented with our open source multiscale universal interface (MUI) library.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calibration of RAFM Micromechanical Model for Creep Using Bayesian Optimization for Functional Output

A Bayesian optimization procedure is presented for calibrating a multimechanism micromechanical model for creep to experimental data of F82H steel. Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steels based on Fe(8–9)%Cr are the most promising candidates for some fusion reactor structures. Although there are indications that RAFM steel could be viable for fusion applications at temperatures up to 600°C, the maximum operating temperature will be determined by the creep properties of the structural material and the breeder material compatibility with the structural material. Due to the relative paucity of available creep data on F82H steel compared to other alloys such as Grade 91 steel, micromechanical models are sought for simulating creep based on relevant deformation mechanisms. As a point of departure, this work recalibrates a model form that was previously proposed for Grade 91 steel to match creep curves for F82H steel. Due to the large number of parameters (9) and cost of the nonlinear simulations, an automated approach for tuning the parameters is pursued using a recently developed Bayesian optimization for functional output (BOFO) framework (Huang et al., 2021, “Bayesian optimization of functional output in inverse problems,” Optim. Eng., 22, pp. 2553–2574). Incorporating extensions such as batch sequencing and weighted experimental load cases into BOFO, a reasonably small error between experimental and simulated creep curves at two load levels is achieved in a reasonable number of iterations. In conclusion, validation with an additional creep curve provides confidence in the fitted parameters obtained from the automated calibration procedure to describe the creep behavior of F82H steel.

42 ENGINEERING↗